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Showing posts with label Apollo 18. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Apollo 18. Show all posts

THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - September 4

3:05 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It turned out to be a great boxoffice weekend for movies aimed at adults, led of course by THE HELP.  THE DEBT had an extraordinarily strong Saturday for a new opening (up 40% from Friday), and is riding that to a surprising weekend finish above its more youth-oriented competition--and at considerably fewer theatres.  APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT, in comparison, had Saturday increases of only 5-7%.  This puts Debt in a good position to add some theatres next weekend, although it faces more direct competition from newcomers CONTAGION and WARRIOR.  Adding to the sweep for adult audiences, CRAZY STUPID LOVE actually managed to go up in its 6th weekend despite losing theatres, demonstrating superb word of mouth.

No one showed up for 7 DAYS IN UTOPIA (a dim $2200 per theatre average at 561), which will be coming soon to a faith-based Netflix queue near you.  A much more serious and worthy film about religion, Vera Farmiga's HIGHER GROUND, was more impressive with around $5500 on each of 17 screens.  CIRCUMSTANCE was at an OK $3200 on each of 11, similar to THE GUARD's per-theatre number--but Guard's is more impressive because it's at 178 screens.  THE WHISTLEBLOWER and BRIGHTON ROCK were both under $2K per theatre, in 61 and 13, respectively.  Among new limited openings, DETECTIVE DEE was most impressive with over $15K at each of 3, while LOVE CRIMES and GAINSBOURG:  A HEROIC LIFE were both in the $7K per screen neighborhood at 3 each.  Bringing up the rear (no double entendre intended) was A GOOD OLD FASHIONED ORGY, with a terrible $750 average on 142 screens.



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THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - September 3

12:59 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


Apart from the usual hosannas to THE HELP's remarkable staying power, there's not much to be said about this weekend's wide releases.  APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT are both flops that will be hard-pressed to gross enough to pay for their marketing.  THE DEBT is a bit more of a question mark, because of its genre and theatre count, but the B it received from exit polling isn't a good sign for the kind of word-of-mouth it would need to build over time--especially with a tankload of "serious" movies about to come down the pike.


In barely-limited release, the Jesus-and-golf movie SEVEN DAYS IN UTOPIA isn't getting much from its faith-based audience, heading for maybe $3-4K per theatre (even worse than Apollo 18, which is in more than 5x as many theatres) over the 4-day holiday at 561.  In genuinely small runs, LOVE CRIMES could do a decent $10K in each of 5, GAINSBOURG:  A HEROIC LIFE around $7500 in each of 2, and the martial arts picture DETECTIVE DEE perhaps $20K in each of 3.  

Next weekend shapes up as unusually interesting for early September, as two ambitious movies square off. Steven Soderbergh's CONTAGION, with its all-star cast but uncompromisingly grim tone, faces the extremely well-reviewed WARRIOR, which will hold sneak previews nationwide on Sunday night in an effort to build buzz for a picture that was very much under the radar with its MMA theme and Tom Hardy and Joel Edgerton in the leads.  (Also opening is BUCKY LARSON:  BORN TO BE A STAR, which I'd prefer to pretend doesn't exist.)

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FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 2 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:42 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

The Help remains the lone sign of strength at the box office.  Down only 2% from the Tropical Storm Irene-dampened box office last weekend, The Help has been upgraded again to $155 million estimated total domestic gross.  The Debt looks like the best of the three new openers, with almost $10 million this Friday-Sunday weekend and a final gross estimate of $37 million (with more upside).  Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D are headed for opening weekends of around $8 million and final grosses well under $20 million.  Overall the weekend is looking like it will be down 1% from this weekend last year.  

The Debt is opening above forecast ($2.6 million Friday for an expected $9.5 million this weekend versus a $6 million forecast).  The Helen Mirren Nazi-hunting period piece is headed for $37 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics nationwide are broadly positive about the film (77% positive at RottenTomatoes) so we could some adjustments upward in the final gross in the next few weeks if the film shows legs with audiences. 



Apollo 18 is opening well below forecast ($2.8 million Friday for an estimated $8.2 million opening weekend, compared to an $13.5 million prediction).  The "found footage" horror film is on track for $17 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been dumping on the film (only 23% positive at RottenTomatoes). 

Shark Night 3D is also opening below forecast ($2.8 million Friday for an expected $8.0 million this weekend versus a $9.5 million forecast).  The movie is headed for $16 million in North America.  Critics are not happy with Shark Night (26% positive at RottenTomatoes).      

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions and Update.     

The Help continues its very solid run with a fourth weekend drop of only 2%. 
  
September 2-4, 2011     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
The Help (DW/Dis)        [$14  ]    $14.3   $ 3.6     $155+
The Debt (Focus)         [$ 6  ]    $ 9.5   $ 2.6     $ 37
Apollo 18 (Wein)         [$13.5]    $ 8.2   $ 2.8     $ 17
Shark Night 3D (Rel)     [$ 9.5]    $ 8.0   $ 2.8     $ 16
Colombiana (Sony)        [$ 6.5]    $ 7.5   $ 2.0     $ 40+ 
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$ 7  ]    $ 7.3   $ 1.8     $180
Our Idiot Brother (Wein) [$ 5  ]    $ 5.3   $ 1.4     $ 31
Don't Be Afraid Dark (FD)[$ 5  ]    $ 5.0   $ 1.4     $ 27
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$ 5  ]    $ 4.5   $ 1.1     $ 36
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$ 4.5]    $ 4.0   $ 0.9     $143


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 
Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (partial results to come):

-- Seven Days in Utopia (drama) at 561 theaters
-- Saving Private Perez (foreign) at 161 theaters
-- A Good Old Fashioned Orgy (comedy) at 143 theaters
-- Bodyguard (foreign) at 89 theaters
-- Bol (drama) at 38 theaters
-- Love Crime (foreign) at 5 theaters
-- Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life (foreign) at 3 theaters


Total Box Office Volume


The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $80 million total, down 1% from the same calendar weekend last year when The American, Machete and Going the Distance opened.  

Top 12 Films: Weekend #35
     Volume     (millions)
2011  $ 80  (+16% vs 2007-10 average; -1% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 69            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 81  The American $13, Machete $11, Going Distance $7    
2009  $ 81  All About Steve $11, Gamer $9, Extract $4
2008  $ 50  Bangkok Dangerous $8
2007  $ 65  3:10 to Yuma $14, Shoot 'Em Up $6

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Contagion from Warner Brothers, Warrior from Lionsgate, and Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star from Sony.  Those movies will be compared to Resident Evil: Afterlife ($27 million opening weekend).  

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.  

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THE BIJOU EARLY BOXOFFICE REPORT: Hard Labor Day

9:33 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,


Friday numbers have been posted by the Hollywood Reporter, and it looks like another lousy Labor Day weekend for the new openings.  All the good news, as has been the case in recent weeks, is confined to THE HELP, which looks to be down only 20% or so from last Friday, and should do around $12M for the Fri-Sun period and $14M for the full holiday weekend.  

After that, things go downhill.  Dimension's APOLLO 18, aka The Blair Witch Project On The Moon, may get to $9M for Fri-Sun and $11M including the holiday.  The picture was very low budget, but it still required marketing costs that were probably $10-15M, so it's not much more than a breakeven proposition at best.  Relativity's competing horror SHARK NIGHT 3D fared worse, with perhaps $7M over 3 days and $9M over 4.  Comparatively speaking, Focus's  THE DEBT looks a little better with $6M/8M because it's in only around 1800 theatres, 1000 fewer than Shark Night and just over half of Apollo's--but that argument cuts both ways, and spin attempts to compare the movie to Focus's successful Labor Day opener The Constant Gardener ignore the fact that Debt is in 30% more theatres than Gardener.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and Mitch Metcalf's Friday analysis on Saturday morning. 

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS SEPTEMBER 2-4

10:18 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Summer always ends with a whimper.  While Memorial Day and Independence Day weekends are among the strongest of the box office year, Labor Day weekend is usually the lowest of the year in terms of movie-going.  This weekend features the opening of three more duds: a "found footage" space thriller, a shark bloodfest, and a well-reviewed but narrow drama about Nazi hunters.  None of these films have much chance of success long-term, though Apollo 18 should tie The Help for #1 this weekend.  Overall, the weekend should be up about 3% versus the same weekend last year.  

Opening at more than 2,750 theaters in North America by Weinstein, Apollo 18 should average $5,100 per theater (for $14 million for Friday-Sunday).  (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.)  Apollo 18 has not been screened for critics, usually not a good sign.  This film should be on track for around $30 million or less in North America when it leaves theaters.


At about 2,400 theaters, Shark Night 3D from Relativity should average a low $4,200 per theater (for $10 million this weekend).  No reviews yet for this movie either, which has not been made available for critics.  This horror/ thriller is probably headed for around $20 million domestically. 

Opening at 1,700 theaters from Focus (Universal) on Wednesday, The Debt should average an anemic $3,400 from Friday-Sunday (for a $6 million opening weekend).  Early reviews, however, have been quite positive at RottenTomatoes (75% positive), indicating some chance at having some legs.  The Debt is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.     

                                               (millions) 
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
September 2-4                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

Apollo 18              Wein  PG13   n/a      $ 14.0    $ 30
Shark Night 3D          Rel  PG13   n/a      $ 10.0    $ 20
The Debt              Focus  R      75%      $  6.0    $ 25

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Help will battle Apollo 18 for the top spot this weekend -- that's about the most exciting thing to watch this sleepy Labor Day weekend.  All of the other returning films should be well below the $10 million line for the weekend. 

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
September 2-4                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

The Help            DW/Dis        - 6%      $14       $145
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -22%      $ 7       $175 
Colombiana            Sony        -36%      $ 6.5     $ 30
Don't Be Afraid Dark FilmDis      -44%      $ 5       $ 25
Our Idiot Brother     Wein        -30%      $ 5       $ 25 
Spy Kids: All Time    Wein        -19%      $ 5       $ 35
The Smurfs            Sony        - 7%      $ 4.5     $140


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $69 million total, ranking 52nd of 52 weeks -- yes, the bottom of the barrel generally.  Labor Day weekend has done a little better the past couple of years:  Last year and the year before this weekend's total was $81 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a marginally up weekend at $84 million, up about 3% from this weekend last year.  Last weekend (dampened by Tropical Storm Irene in the northeast) will probably have the distinction of the lowest weekend gross in 2011.     


This Weekend Last Two Years



9/3/10

 The American UNI R George Clooney  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10  Actual: $13
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $44  Actual: $35
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $30

 Machete FOX R Danny Trejo Robert DeNiro 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $11
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $34  Actual: $26
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $16

 Going the Distance WB R Drew Barrymore Justin Long 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $24  Actual: $18
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $24

9/4/09

 Gamer LG R Gerard Butler  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $20
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $19


 All About Steve FOX PG13 Sandra Bullock Thomas Haden Church 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10  Actual: $11
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $31  Actual: $34
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $4

 Extract MIR R Jason Bateman Ben Affleck 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $5  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $16  Actual: $11
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and early next week we will have the final weekend numbers for the three-day Friday-Sunday weekend and the four-day Friday-Monday portion.

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THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes August 27 - Be Afraid of the Boxoffice

12:13 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



The full extent of theatre closings and other Hurricane Irene-related events isn't yet known, so projections may be high at this point.

That being said, this was never going to be a good weekend at the boxoffice:  in late August, the studios don't open their heavy hitters.  What audiences there are continue to flock to THE HELP, which should go over $100M by the end of this week, and has little real competition for its target audience over the next several weekends.  The question that won't be answered for a few months is whether the picture will be able to keep enough momentum going to propel itself into serious awards contention.


None of the new releases this weekend will make a lot of cash, so success or failure will have more to do with their costs.  On that scale, OUR IDIOT BROTHER, despite its relatively lowly gross, may not be as big a failure as it seems:  The Weinstein Company paid $6M for distribution rights plus a marketing commitment of $15M, and if the film can eke its way to the $24M Mitch Metcalf predicts, there might be enough for a small profit, particularly because it has a very cable-TV-friendly cast.  

DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, on the other hand, cost a reported $25M to produce, and FilmDistrict's marketing campaign probably wasn't smaller (and may have been larger) than Idiot's, putting it deeper in the hole.

As with most of the product produced by Luc Besson's company, COLOMBIANA's success will be largely based on its international results; its projected $28M US gross won't even bring it to breakeven.

All of the terrible 3D reboots from last weekend collapsed even further this time around:  don't look for further chapters in the CONAN THE BARBARIAN, SPY KIDS or FRIGHT NIGHT sagas.  ONE DAY didn't show any positive word of mouth either.

A few limited releases expanded this weekend and saw decent numbers.  SARAH'S KEY increased its theatre count by about 35% and held steady (meaning its per-theatre number slipped), while SENNA nearly doubled its count (still at only 34) and saw its total rise modestly, a similar result.

It's particularly important to note the effect of Irene on the new, very limited releases:  Vera Farmiga's excellent HIGHER GROUND was looking to gross $13K or so at each of its 3 theatres, but 2 of those theatres are in Manhattan, and if they're closed or deserted, that will obviously have a serious effect on the weekend total.  Similarly, the very good CIRCUMSTANCE, about rebelling teens in Iran, was headed to a good $8K or so in each of 6 theatres, but half of those are in the NY area. 

Labor Day is historically the one holiday weekend when Americans don't go to the movies, and consequently, 2 cheap horror movies lead the pack with APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT 3D.  Also, Focus had a minor success last Labor Day with a Wednesday opening for THE AMERICAN, so they're going to try the same slot for THE DEBT, another international action film.  But without George Clooney in the lead--and with the probability of blah reviews for a movie that's been sitting on the shelf for a year--they may not duplicate that feat.


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