THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - August 28
THE BIJOU EARLY BOXOFFICE: Hurricane Watch
THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes August 27 - Be Afraid of the Boxoffice
FRIDAY AUGUST 26 BOX OFFICE RESULTS
Colombiana is probably opening at forecast ($3.7 million Friday for an expected $10 million this weekend versus a $10 million forecast). The Zoe Saldana action film is headed for $28 million in North America. Critics nationwide are generally negative about the film (only 33% positive at RottenTomatoes). Read Mitch Salem's review.
Don't Be Afraid of the Dark should open below forecast ($3.6 million Friday for an estimated $9 million opening weekend, compared to an $11.5 million prediction). The horror film is on track for $24 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday. Critics nationwide have been unusually positive about the film (58% positive at RottenTomatoes, strong for a horror film). Read Mitch Salem's review here.
Our Idiot Brother is also opening well below forecast ($2.3 million Friday for an expected $6.5 million this weekend versus a $9.5 million forecast). The Paul Rudd comedy is headed for $24 million in North America. Critics remain broadly positive (66% positive at RottenTomatoes) -- it might enjoy a decent second weekend, but with this starting point it is still toast. Read Mitch Salem's review.
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions.
The Help continues its very solid run with a third weekend drop of only 28%, while Conan the Barbarian utterly collapsed in its second weekend, falling 72%. Also in weekend two, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World should fall 57% and Fright Night should fall 64%.
August 26-28, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
The Help (DW/Dis) [$15.5] $14.5 $ 4.4 $143+
Colombiana (Sony) [$10 ] $10.0 $ 3.7 $ 28
Don't Be Afraid Dark (FD)[$11.5] $ 9.0 $ 3.6 $ 24
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$ 9 ] $ 8.3 $ 2.6 $175
Our Idiot Brother (Wein) [$ 9.5] $ 6.5 $ 2.3 $ 24
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$ 6.5] $ 5.0 $ 1.6 $ 29
The Smurfs (Sony) [$ 5 ] $ 4.2 $ 1.2 $139
Fright Night (DW/Dis) [$ 4 ] $ 2.9 $ 1.0 $ 19-
Conan the Barbarian (LG) [$ 4.5] $ 2.8 $ 0.9 $ 18-
Final Destination 5 (WB) [$ 3.5] $ 2.5 $ 0.8 $ 44
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Limited Releases
Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (partial results):
-- Higher Ground (drama) should average $13,700 at 3 theaters
-- Brighton Rock (period drama) should average $3,135 at 11 theaters
-- Redemption Road (drama) should average a woeful $791 at 26 theaters
-- Suing the Devil (comedy/drama) at 14 theaters
-- Chasing Madoff (documentary) at 9 theaters
-- Circumstance (drama) at 7 theaters
-- Buzzkill (comedy) at 1 theater
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $71 million total, down 25% from the same calendar weekend last year when Takers, The Last Exorcism and Avatar: Special Edition opened.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #34
Volume (millions)
2011 $ 71 (-24% vs 2007-10 average; -25% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $ 94
Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $ 95 Takers $20, Last Exorcism $20, Avatar: Special $4
2009 $110 Final Destination $27, Halloween 2 $16
2008 $ 74 Babylon AD $9, Traitor $8, Disaster Movie $6
2007 $ 97 Halloween $26, Balls of Fury $11, Death Sentence $4
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Apollo 18 from Weinstein, Shark Night 3D from Relativity, and The Debt from Focus (on Wednesday). Those movies will be compared to The American ($13 million opening weekend), Machete ($11 million) and Going the Distance ($7 million).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Hurricane Edition - UPDATED
The effect of Hurricane Irene on movie boxoffice this weekend is, of course, the least of the devastation the storm could cause. Nevertheless, several Hollywood studios seem likely to be part of the collateral damage over the next few days. The Hollywood Reporter says that Clearview Cinemas is shutting all its theatres (which cover the Philadelphia to NY area, including Manhattan's flagship Ziegfeld Theatre) for the weekend, while AMC will be closed in the Virginia, Baltimore and DC areas on Saturday, and additional closings on Sunday may well follow the storm as it moves north. Regal Cinemas, the largest chain in the country, is also considering closings.
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Colombiana"
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS AUGUST 26-28
Keep your helmets on: the studios are about to drop three more bombs in movie theaters this weekend. A horror movie, an action flick and an adult comedy are being released, and we expect each to gross not much more than $30 million in their entire domestic theatrical run. Opening weekends should range between $9-12 million. That will leave #1 open again for The Help. Much will be made in the press about The Help being #1 for two weeks after a #2 opening, but, really, the #1 ranking is more of a quirk of the calendar and the positively abysmal quality of the competing films. Weekend ranking is about the least important statistic available. Remember, Cowboys & Aliens opened at #1 -- just ask anyone at Comcast/ Universal if they are happy with that film's performance.
Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by FilmDistrict, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark should average a somewhat below par $4,750 per theater (for $11.5 million for Friday-Sunday). With a small number of reviews posted at RottenTomatoes so far, critical opinion is mixed (56% positive, although not bad for the horror genre). This film should be on track for around $30 million or less in North America when it leaves theaters.
At about 2,500 theaters, Colombiana from Sony/TriStar should average a crappy $3,900 (for $10 million this weekend). No reviews yet for this movie, which has not been made available for critics. This action film featuring Avatar's Zoe Saldana is probably headed for around $30 million or slightly more domestically.
Opening at only 2,000 theaters from Weinstein, Our Idiot Brother should average $4,730 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). Early reviews have been fairly positive at RottenTomatoes (63% positive). This movie is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.
(millions)New Films Critics Opening Domestic
August 26-28 Positive Weekend Total*
Don't Be Afraid Dark FilmDis R 56% $ 11.5 $ 30
Colombiana Sony PG13 n/a $ 10.0 $ 32
Our Idiot Brother Wein R 63% $ 9.5 $ 25
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The Help should remain #1 thanks to another terrifically low 24% decline and, as noted before, very weak opening competition. All of the other returning films should below $10 million each this weekend, causing total box office volume to be quite soft this weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
August 26-28 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
The Help DW/Dis -24% $15.5 $130
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox -44% $ 9 $180
Spy Kids: All Time Wein -43% $ 6.5 $ 30
The Smurfs Sony -33% $ 5 $145
Conan the Barbarian LG -56% $ 4.5 $ 25
Fright Night DW/Dis -50% $ 4.0 $ 25
Final Destination 5 WB -52% $ 3.5 $ 45
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $94 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $95 million, and the year before was $110 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like another down weekend at $86 million, down about 10% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years







