RSS
Showing posts with label Colombiana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Colombiana. Show all posts

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - August 28


The probable effect of Irene is most evident in the weekend's limited releases, where loss of NY business would have been most damaging.  HIGHER GROUND, seemingly headed for a per-theatre average of $12K, could only manage $7600, while CIRCUMSTANCE, on track for a $8K average, made it to only $6200.  Similarly, some expansions were hit:  SARAH'S KEY, which looked to hold steady on Friday (while increasing theatre count by 35%), instead went down 17%.  And Sony Classics was unlucky in its last-hurrah expansion of MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, which increased its theatre count by almost 150% but saw grosses rise only 34%.


For the wider releases, the storm's effect was less serious.  THE HELP seemed hardly to be touched at all, probably because its audience isn't particularly centered on the East Coast, and the same goes for the genre movies COLOMBIANA and DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARKOUR IDIOT BROTHER could plausibly claim that Irene caused it some pain, but even another $1M for the weekend wouldn't have made its bleak result much brighter. 

Labor Day weekend is historically terrible at the boxoffice, and studios will have to decide whether the possibility of making up for some of this weekend's shortfall justifies increased marketing for next weekend, in an effort to bring some of those lost audiences back in.  The big studios will probably do little, if any, of that--this weekend's openings were unlikely to have much gas in them anyway.  Smaller distributors like Sony Classics and Roadside Attractions, however, may find the push worthwhile.  

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS

THE BIJOU EARLY BOXOFFICE: Hurricane Watch


Early numbers for Friday and Saturday suggest that the first day, at least, of Hurricane Irene didn't do enormous damage to the boxoffice.  Deadline reports that THE HELP had a healthy Friday-to-Saturday bump of 38%, on its way to a $14.5M weekend which would be only $1M below Mitch Metcalf's pre-storm weekend prediction.  Similarly, holdovers RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES and SPY KIDS look to be within around $500K of their weekend projections.  

Of the newcomers, COLOMBIANA held steady from Friday to Saturday, and seems to be headed for just about its $10M projection.  DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK and OUR IDIOT BROTHER, though, are underperforming significantly, with respectively around $9M compared to its $11.5M projection, and $6M compared to a projected $9.5M--however, those pictures also got dreadful C- and C+ scores in exit polls, so their dismal returns may have as much to do with bad word of mouth as with wind and rain.  

As of this writing, the worst of the storm is still several hours away from the NY area, so Irene's effect on Sunday grosses may be more serious.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for all the weekend numbers, and look for Mitch Metcalf's boxoffice analysis on Sunday morning.


  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes August 27 - Be Afraid of the Boxoffice



The full extent of theatre closings and other Hurricane Irene-related events isn't yet known, so projections may be high at this point.

That being said, this was never going to be a good weekend at the boxoffice:  in late August, the studios don't open their heavy hitters.  What audiences there are continue to flock to THE HELP, which should go over $100M by the end of this week, and has little real competition for its target audience over the next several weekends.  The question that won't be answered for a few months is whether the picture will be able to keep enough momentum going to propel itself into serious awards contention.


None of the new releases this weekend will make a lot of cash, so success or failure will have more to do with their costs.  On that scale, OUR IDIOT BROTHER, despite its relatively lowly gross, may not be as big a failure as it seems:  The Weinstein Company paid $6M for distribution rights plus a marketing commitment of $15M, and if the film can eke its way to the $24M Mitch Metcalf predicts, there might be enough for a small profit, particularly because it has a very cable-TV-friendly cast.  

DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, on the other hand, cost a reported $25M to produce, and FilmDistrict's marketing campaign probably wasn't smaller (and may have been larger) than Idiot's, putting it deeper in the hole.

As with most of the product produced by Luc Besson's company, COLOMBIANA's success will be largely based on its international results; its projected $28M US gross won't even bring it to breakeven.

All of the terrible 3D reboots from last weekend collapsed even further this time around:  don't look for further chapters in the CONAN THE BARBARIAN, SPY KIDS or FRIGHT NIGHT sagas.  ONE DAY didn't show any positive word of mouth either.

A few limited releases expanded this weekend and saw decent numbers.  SARAH'S KEY increased its theatre count by about 35% and held steady (meaning its per-theatre number slipped), while SENNA nearly doubled its count (still at only 34) and saw its total rise modestly, a similar result.

It's particularly important to note the effect of Irene on the new, very limited releases:  Vera Farmiga's excellent HIGHER GROUND was looking to gross $13K or so at each of its 3 theatres, but 2 of those theatres are in Manhattan, and if they're closed or deserted, that will obviously have a serious effect on the weekend total.  Similarly, the very good CIRCUMSTANCE, about rebelling teens in Iran, was headed to a good $8K or so in each of 6 theatres, but half of those are in the NY area. 

Labor Day is historically the one holiday weekend when Americans don't go to the movies, and consequently, 2 cheap horror movies lead the pack with APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT 3D.  Also, Focus had a minor success last Labor Day with a Wednesday opening for THE AMERICAN, so they're going to try the same slot for THE DEBT, another international action film.  But without George Clooney in the lead--and with the probability of blah reviews for a movie that's been sitting on the shelf for a year--they may not duplicate that feat.


  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS

FRIDAY AUGUST 26 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

As Hurricane Irene marches up the East Coast from North Carolina to Boston this weekend, the full impact on the weekend box office remains unclear, but there will be a significant impact.  News reports say that 65 million Americans will be touched by the storm (about 20% of the population), and many theaters will be closed as a precaution Saturday night.  The weekend Top 12 films looks like it will be down 25% from last year to a very weak $71 million (lower than the horrific same weekend in 2008 which suffered from completely horrible movie quality -- not too different than this weekend when you think about it).  The Help remains the #1 movie in theaters, and Colombiana has a chance of hitting its modest forecast, while the other openers are being hammered.  

Colombiana is probably opening at forecast ($3.7 million Friday for an expected $10 million this weekend versus a $10 million forecast).  The Zoe Saldana action film is headed for $28 million in North America.  Critics nationwide are generally negative about the film (only 33% positive at RottenTomatoes).  Read Mitch Salem's review.





Don't Be Afraid of the Dark should open below forecast ($3.6 million Friday for an estimated $9 million opening weekend, compared to an $11.5 million prediction).  The horror film is on track for $24 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics nationwide have been unusually positive about the film (58% positive at RottenTomatoes, strong for a horror film).  Read Mitch Salem's review here.

Our Idiot Brother is also opening well below forecast ($2.3 million Friday for an expected $6.5 million this weekend versus a $9.5 million forecast).  The Paul Rudd comedy is headed for $24 million in North America.  Critics remain broadly positive (66% positive at RottenTomatoes) -- it might enjoy a decent second weekend, but with this starting point it is still toast.  Read Mitch Salem's review.      

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions.     

The Help continues its very solid run with a third weekend drop of only 28%, while Conan the Barbarian utterly collapsed in its second weekend, falling 72%Also in weekend two, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World should fall 57% and Fright Night should fall 64%

  
August 26-28, 2011      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*

The Help (DW/Dis)        [$15.5]    $14.5   $ 4.4     $143+
Colombiana (Sony)        [$10  ]    $10.0   $ 3.7     $ 28 
Don't Be Afraid Dark (FD)[$11.5]    $ 9.0   $ 3.6     $ 24
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$ 9  ]    $ 8.3   $ 2.6     $175
Our Idiot Brother (Wein) [$ 9.5]    $ 6.5   $ 2.3     $ 24
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$ 6.5]    $ 5.0   $ 1.6     $ 29
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$ 5  ]    $ 4.2   $ 1.2     $139
Fright Night (DW/Dis)    [$ 4  ]    $ 2.9   $ 1.0     $ 19-
Conan the Barbarian (LG) [$ 4.5]    $ 2.8   $ 0.9     $ 18-
Final Destination 5 (WB) [$ 3.5]    $ 2.5   $ 0.8     $ 44
 
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 

Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (partial results):

-- Higher Ground (drama) should average $13,700 at 3 theaters
-- Brighton Rock (period drama) should average $3,135 at 11 theaters
-- Redemption Road (drama) should average a woeful $791 at 26 theaters
-- Suing the Devil (comedy/drama) at 14 theaters
-- Chasing Madoff (documentary) at 9 theaters
-- Circumstance
(drama) at 7 theaters
-- Buzzkill (comedy) at 1 theater


Total Box Office Volume



The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $71 million total, down 25% from the same calendar weekend last year when Takers, The Last Exorcism and Avatar: Special Edition opened.  

 Top 12 Films: Weekend #34
     Volume     (millions)
2011  $ 71  (
-24% vs 2007-10 average; -25% vs 2010) 

2007-10

Avg   $ 94
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 95  Takers $20, Last Exorcism $20, Avatar: Special $4    

2009  $110  Final Destination $27, Halloween 2 $16
2008  $ 74  Babylon AD $9, Traitor $8, Disaster Movie $6
2007  $ 97  Halloween $26, Balls of Fury $11, Death Sentence $4



Next Weekend

Opening next week are Apollo 18 from Weinstein, Shark Night 3D from Relativity, and The Debt from Focus (on Wednesday).  Those movies will be compared to The American ($13 million opening weekend), Machete ($11 million) and Going the Distance ($7 million).  

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Hurricane Edition - UPDATED


UPDATE:  The Reporter has some early Friday numbers, and the storm's effect can already be seen at the boxoffice.  THE HELP seems likely to win the weekend as expected, but with a lower-than anticipated $12-13M.  COLOMBIANA was in second on Friday, heading for a weekend of perhaps $10M.  DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK and RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES could follow with around $8M each, slightly ahead of OUR IDIOT BROTHER with about $7M.  Of course, extrapolations of Friday numbers to the weekend are more difficult than usual because of the uncertainty surrounding Hurricane Irene, so those numbers may well shift as the weekend continues.



The effect of Hurricane Irene on movie boxoffice this weekend is, of course, the least of the devastation the storm could cause.  Nevertheless, several Hollywood studios seem likely to be part of the collateral damage over the next few days.  The Hollywood Reporter says that Clearview Cinemas is shutting all its theatres (which cover the Philadelphia to NY area, including Manhattan's flagship Ziegfeld Theatre) for the weekend, while AMC will be closed in the Virginia, Baltimore and DC areas on Saturday, and additional closings on Sunday may well follow the storm as it moves north.  Regal Cinemas, the largest chain in the country, is also considering closings.  

One estimate has the boxoffice declining 10-20% for the weekend due to the storm.  Hardest hit will be Sony, The Weinstein Company and FilmDistrict, with their openings of Colombiana, Our Idiot Brother and Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, respectively (those numbers were expected to be weak anyway--see Mitch Metcalf's weekend boxoffice predictions); the holdover business for Dreamworks/Disney's The Help, which was expected to win the weekend, will also likely be affected.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updates about the weekend boxoffice and how it's being affected by Irene.



  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS

THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Colombiana"


COLOMBIANA - Not Even For Free:  Even the Body Count Is Dull

For a movie from the Luc Besson House of Action, COLOMBIANA is surprisingly listless and dispirited.  Besson first came to prominence as a director, with pictures like Subway and The Big Blue to his credit; then in 1990, he hit the jackpot with La Femme Nikita, which not only became a genre unto itself (spawning a US remake and at least 2 TV series), but led to Besson's far more profitable career as a producer.  His EuropaCorp is behind over 100 movies, including such hits as the Transporter series, Taken, and District B13, which reliably combine reasonable budgets, high-octane action and international elements for fairly consistent global success.  (As a director, Besson's work is more wide-ranging, and includes action pictures like The Professional and The Fifth Element, the black-and-white art film Angel A, the family animations of the Arthur series, and historical epics like the Joan of Arc flop The Messenger; his latest film The Lady, a 2 1/2 hour biography of Burmese political activist Aung San Suu-Kyi, premieres at the Toronto Film Festival next month.)


Colombiana fits comfortably within the EuropaCorp subgenre of trained-assassin-seeks-revenge (aka This Time It's Personal), but there's something off about it.  The picture gets off to a good start, with 9 year old Cataleya (played by Amandia Stenberg; her character is named after an orchid that figures into the plot) enduring the sight of her parents killed before her eyes by evil Marco (Jordi Molla).  She makes a fairly dazzling escape laced with parkour stuntwork, and calmly, singlemindedly, does whatever it takes to make her way to the US and her gangster uncle Emilio (Cliff Curtis).  Then 15 years pass, and Cataleya grows up into the unexpectedly dull Zoe Saldana, who looks amazing--although so thin that one wants to see her eat a pizza or a Ring Ding--but hasn't the faintest whiff of a personality beyond the grim, dogged desire to avenge her family.  (Deadpan humor, a quality Saldana seems to lack, is an underrated asset in this violent genre; one of the reasons people like Clint Eastwood, Sylvester Stallone, Bruce Willis and Jason Statham--not to mention Angelina Jolie--have done so well over the years is that they carry a self-mocking air with them into battle.)

The movie's plot (the script is by Besson and longtime collaborator Robert Mark Kamen) is both overcomplicated and nonsensical:  it assumes that even though Cataleya's enemies have been moved to the US by the CIA, the most efficient way for her to track them down is to become a professional hitwoman and slaughter dozens of people they know in addition to the hits she's hired to do.  The murders, too, are overelaborate, with killings by pet shark and slithery intrusions via heating duct. (Can we have a moratorium on the heating duct route into impossible-to-enter locations, by the way?  Die Hard was 23 years ago, and the device is officially tired.)  Meanwhile, on the off-days when she isn't killing people, Catalaya has an excruciatingly boring romance with Danny (Michael Vartan), a sensitive aspiring artist--of course--who isn't allowed to ask her any questions about herself.

After that first burst of action, the movie doesn't liven up again until its last reel, when Cataleya finally finds the villains who killed her family.  She has an exciting, Bourne-influenced fight with Marco at close quarters that gets the pulse racing for a bit, but even then the picture follows it by dispatching another foe with a lazy and contrived call-back to a gag from earlier in the movie, and then it still won't roll end credits until we have to suffer through another Vartan scene. 

Colombiana was directed by Olivier Megaton (the name is a nom de film), who previously helmed Transporter 3 for Europa; although he handles the set-piece action sequences well enough, he doesn't race quickly enough through the storyline, unwisely allowing us to register its silliness and the flatness of the dialogue; aside from Curtis and Lennie James as a canny FBI agent, he doesn't get much from the actors, either. 

We don't expect much from a movie like Colombiana, but a fast pace and a likable lead are indispensable.  Colombiana doesn't have either of these, and despite the high body count, it's mostly a yawn.  Without a doubt, though, Luc Besson and his EuropaCorp assembly line are already busily churning out next year's product to lure our ticket dollars.


  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS AUGUST 26-28

Keep your helmets on: the studios are about to drop three more bombs in movie theaters this weekend.  A horror movie, an action flick and an adult comedy are being released, and we expect each to gross not much more than $30 million in their entire domestic theatrical run.  Opening weekends should range between $9-12 million.  That will leave #1 open again for The Help.  Much will be made in the press about The Help being #1 for two weeks after a #2 opening, but, really, the #1 ranking is more of a quirk of the calendar and the positively abysmal quality of the competing films.  Weekend ranking is about the least important statistic available.  Remember, Cowboys & Aliens opened at #1 -- just ask anyone at Comcast/ Universal if they are happy with that film's performance.  

Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by FilmDistrict, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark should average a somewhat below par $4,750 per theater (for $11.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  With a small number of reviews posted at RottenTomatoes so far, critical opinion is mixed (56% positive, although not bad for the horror genre).  This film should be on track for around $30 million or less in North America when it leaves theaters.


At about 2,500 theaters, Colombiana from Sony/TriStar should average a crappy $3,900 (for $10 million this weekend).  No reviews yet for this movie, which has not been made available for critics.  This action film featuring Avatar's Zoe Saldana is probably headed for around $30 million or slightly more domestically. 

Opening at only 2,000 theaters from Weinstein, Our Idiot Brother should average $4,730 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9.5 million opening weekend).  Early reviews have been fairly positive at RottenTomatoes (63% positive).  This movie is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.     

                                               (millions)New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
August 26-28                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Don't Be Afraid Dark FilmDis R      56%      $ 11.5    $ 30
Colombiana             Sony  PG13   n/a      $ 10.0    $ 32
Our Idiot Brother      Wein  R      63%      $  9.5    $ 25

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Help should remain #1 thanks to another terrifically low 24% decline and, as noted before, very weak opening competition.  All of the other returning films should below $10 million each this weekend, causing total box office volume to be quite soft this weekend. 

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
August 26-28                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

The Help            DW/Dis        -24%      $15.5     $130
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -44%      $ 9       $180
Spy Kids: All Time    Wein        -43%      $ 6.5     $ 30

The Smurfs            Sony        -33%      $ 5       $145
Conan the Barbarian     LG        -56%      $ 4.5     $ 25
Fright Night        DW/Dis        -50%      $ 4.0     $ 25

Final Destination 5     WB        -52%      $ 3.5     $ 45


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $94 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $95 million, and the year before was $110 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another down weekend at $86 million, down about 10% from this weekend last year.     


This Weekend Last Two Years


8.27.10

 The Last Exorcism LG PG13    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $20
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $49  Actual: $41
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $26

 Takers SONY PG13 Chris Brown Hayden Christensen  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $21
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $60  Actual: $58
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $11

 Avatar: Special Edition FOX PG13 Sam Worthington Zoe Saldana  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $3  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $17  Actual: $10
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

8.28.09 

 The Final Destination WB R    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22  Actual: $27
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $73  Actual: $66
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $115

 Halloween 2 WEINS R    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $17  Actual: $16
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $34  Actual: $33
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $5

 Taking Woodstock UNI R Emile Hirsch Imelda Staunton  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9  Actual: $7
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $2

 
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 20


THE HELP will be the year's first "serious" movie to gross over $100M.  September is traditionally one of the softest months on the movie release calendar, and 2011 is no exception:  although there are a few promising arrivals like Steven Soderbergh's Contagion and the film adaptation of  Moneyball, the major openings (they hope) include vehicles for Sarah Jessica Parker and Taylor Lautner, and not much else.  Propelled by massive word of mouth, The Help could play strongly all through the month.  


Although the new Oscar rules for Best Picture nominations are nearly impenetrable (we don't even know how many nominees there will be, somewhere between 5-10), The Help is certainly a possible factor.  Much more likely are nominations in acting and the visual categories like Production Design.  Oscar credentials will be very important to the film, because without them, its subject matter will place it in tough sledding overseas; even without international interest, though, the movie's $25M cost (plus moderate marketing) makes it a hit already.

After that, and aside from the continued strength of RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (another movie benefiting from the weak August competition), the news is all bad.  Even though FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD were modestly budgeted, their marketing costs were still at least $25-30M domestically, and they'll be lucky if their US grosses even exceed those numbers.  Even worse is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, which cost upward of $70M plus marketing; the financiers will need huge international business just to break even (Lionsgate only controls US rights, for which they reportedly paid $25M plus marketing--they'll be looking at red ink too).    

Similarly, the horribly reviewed ONE DAY (I had my own problems with it, but really it's not that terrible), despite a production cost of only $15M and relatively minimal marketing, will have to hope for a big response in the UK (where the story is set) to have any chance at breaking even.  

It's not as though people were rushing out to limited releases, either.  Despite very strong reviews, neither AMIGO nor THE HEDGEHOG is likely to do more than $5-6K per theatre in either of their small runs, and GRIFF THE INVISIBLE won't even get to $2K.

Next weekend, more of the same, although there's a welcome absence of shoddy 3D, and at least one of the openings is actually good:  OUR IDIOT BROTHER, a fun ensemble comedy acquired by Harvey Weinstein at Sundance.  It's joined by the somewhat buzzy horror movie DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK (produced by Guillermo del Toro), which was delayed when Disney got out of the Miramax business and is now with FilmDistrict (they had a notable horror success earlier this year with Insidious);  and Zoe Saldana in COLOMBIANA, from the Luc Besson international action-movie factory--you always know it's late summer when one of his movies shows up on the schedule. 

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for full weekend boxoffice and Mitch Metcalf's analysis, as well as international grosses as soon as they're available.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS