RSS
Showing posts with label one day. Show all posts
Showing posts with label one day. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: The Year's Worst Movies

5:23 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



The problem with 2011 on screen was more the pervasive mediocrity than an overload of terrible movies, but that doesn't mean there weren't some awful films to be found--and, if possible, avoided.  Here are 10 or so:

10.  ONE DAY:  Admittedly, a cheat:  One Day wasn’t a complete disaster--it was far less painful to sit through than I Don't Know How She Does It, among others.  But it deserves mention as an object lesson in how a movie can seem to do everything right--a fine novel by Nicholls as source material, script by the novelist himself, direction by Lone Scherfig coming off An Education, a cast headed by Anne Hathaway, Jim Sturgess, and Patricia Clarkson—and yet end up utterly flat and unmoving.


9.  UNCLE BOONMEE WHO CAN RECALL HIS PAST LIVES:  Apichatpong Weerasethankul's Thai fantasy was the most willfully impenetrable and pretentious art film of the year--naturally, it won the Grand Prize at Cannes and abject acclaim from worshipers of the incomprehensible for incomprehensibility's sake like the NY Times. 

8.  THE ART OF GETTING BY:  Gavin Wiesen's dreadful indie (picked up at Sundance by Fox Searchlight, to no discernible audience interest), may actually have been the nine millionth film festival movie about a quirky, oversensitive teen, or just felt like it.  Agonizingly twee, unfunny and charmless.

7. HALL PASS:  Remember the Farrelly brothers?  Remember There's Something About Mary?  They continued down their downward path with this witless, visually ugly sit-com about attempted adultery that dragged Owen Wilson, Jason Sudeikis, Christina Applegate and Jenna Fischer down with it.  (Coming in 2012:  The Three Stooges.)

6.  DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK:  Producer/co-writer Guillermo del Toro's name was all over the marketing for this flick, so even though technically Troy Nixey gets blame for the dull, virtually scare-less direction (the one and only boo! moment was used in every single trailer and promo), del Toro was the man in charge.  The combination of this and #2 below suggests that Katie Holmes may be the Hollywood actress most in need of a new agent.

5. THE NICOLAS CAGE SHOW:  A one-man extravaganza of dreadfulness, he gave us Season of the Witch, Drive Angry and the essentially direct-to-video Trespass, all in one calendar year.      


4.  THE DILEMMA:  What was Ron Howard thinking?  A witless script--yet again, about the hilarity of adultery--credited to Allan Loeb couldn’t even have looked good on the page, and wasted not just Howard’s talents, but a cast that included Vince Vaughn, Kevin James, Jennifer Connelly, Winona Ryder and Channing Tatum.  


3.  ANY SUPERHERO MOVIE WITH THE COLOR GREEN IN THE TITLE:  Yes, another cheat, but how can one choose between Green Lantern and The Green Hornet, two of the genre’s all-time worst?  Lantern (combined with The Change-Up, which could also easily have made this list) turned what was supposed to be the year of Ryan Reynolds into one he’ll have to hope people forget; Hornet, co-written by as well as starring Seth Rogen (and directed by Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind’s Michel Gondry!) was a flat-out embarrassment.


2.  JACK & JILL:  Even by the very, very low standards of Adam Sandler vehicles, this drag “comedy” was an unfunny, endlessly stupid piece of crud.  


1.  SUCKER PUNCH:  But nothing in 2011 was worse than Sucker Punch, Zach Snyder’s putrescent exercise in PG-13 fanboy porn that was so senseless, ugly and incompetent in every way that I’m surprised it hasn’t been “rediscovered” yet as an unappreciated masterpiece.  (If only it were in subtitled Thai!)  Good luck to Warner Bros, which now has Snyder behind the camera on its giant Superman reboot…

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes August 27 - Be Afraid of the Boxoffice

12:13 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



The full extent of theatre closings and other Hurricane Irene-related events isn't yet known, so projections may be high at this point.

That being said, this was never going to be a good weekend at the boxoffice:  in late August, the studios don't open their heavy hitters.  What audiences there are continue to flock to THE HELP, which should go over $100M by the end of this week, and has little real competition for its target audience over the next several weekends.  The question that won't be answered for a few months is whether the picture will be able to keep enough momentum going to propel itself into serious awards contention.


None of the new releases this weekend will make a lot of cash, so success or failure will have more to do with their costs.  On that scale, OUR IDIOT BROTHER, despite its relatively lowly gross, may not be as big a failure as it seems:  The Weinstein Company paid $6M for distribution rights plus a marketing commitment of $15M, and if the film can eke its way to the $24M Mitch Metcalf predicts, there might be enough for a small profit, particularly because it has a very cable-TV-friendly cast.  

DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, on the other hand, cost a reported $25M to produce, and FilmDistrict's marketing campaign probably wasn't smaller (and may have been larger) than Idiot's, putting it deeper in the hole.

As with most of the product produced by Luc Besson's company, COLOMBIANA's success will be largely based on its international results; its projected $28M US gross won't even bring it to breakeven.

All of the terrible 3D reboots from last weekend collapsed even further this time around:  don't look for further chapters in the CONAN THE BARBARIAN, SPY KIDS or FRIGHT NIGHT sagas.  ONE DAY didn't show any positive word of mouth either.

A few limited releases expanded this weekend and saw decent numbers.  SARAH'S KEY increased its theatre count by about 35% and held steady (meaning its per-theatre number slipped), while SENNA nearly doubled its count (still at only 34) and saw its total rise modestly, a similar result.

It's particularly important to note the effect of Irene on the new, very limited releases:  Vera Farmiga's excellent HIGHER GROUND was looking to gross $13K or so at each of its 3 theatres, but 2 of those theatres are in Manhattan, and if they're closed or deserted, that will obviously have a serious effect on the weekend total.  Similarly, the very good CIRCUMSTANCE, about rebelling teens in Iran, was headed to a good $8K or so in each of 6 theatres, but half of those are in the NY area. 

Labor Day is historically the one holiday weekend when Americans don't go to the movies, and consequently, 2 cheap horror movies lead the pack with APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT 3D.  Also, Focus had a minor success last Labor Day with a Wednesday opening for THE AMERICAN, so they're going to try the same slot for THE DEBT, another international action film.  But without George Clooney in the lead--and with the probability of blah reviews for a movie that's been sitting on the shelf for a year--they may not duplicate that feat.


  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 19-21 Weekend Winners and Weepers

6:16 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



There's not much to add about the weekend grosses that hasn't been said (see Mitch Metcalf's round-up report here), so let's take a look at who, apart from the studios themselves, did and didn't have a fun weekend:

WINNERS

Women of THE HELP:  Emma Stone isn't likely to get Oscar consideration for her performance, being the "White Actress in an African-American Story" (for a particularly egregious example of this criticism, see Patrick Goldstein's column today--as a rule of thumb, if you have to cite Armond White as back-up for your argument, you may want to rethink the debate).  But she's still the biggest name in a smash hit, and her supporting role in the sleeper CRAZY STUPID LOVE doesn't hurt either--assuming that the Spider-Man reboot doesn't go splat next summer, she'll have as much claim as anyone to the currently vacant title of America's Sweetheart.  Meanwhile, Viola Davis has a big decision to make:  campaign for the Oscar as Best Actress (which she might not win, but just being nominated could bring her to a new level in the industry) or Supporting (where she would have a serious chance at victory)?  Her decision will directly impact co-star Octavia Spencer, who has a much better chance of making the cut in Supporting with Davis in the leading category.  (There's also the chance Sissy Spacek could pull a Supporting nomination for her tasty little role as Bryce Dallas Howard's mother, but probably not--see "White Actress in an African-American Story," above.)  Not in the same gender pool but still a Winner is director Tate Taylor, who went from being utterly unknown to the man behind a giant success, without having to direct music videos or make a stop at Sundance.


Expanders:  Several limited releases widened their runs this weekend with generally good results.  SARAH'S KEY made $3900 at each of 201 theatres; THE GUARD did $5200 at 83; THE WHISTLEBLOWER, $3200 at 44; and SENNA, $12K at 14.  (THE FUTURE did less well, with $2K at 32.) 

Andy Serkis:  He probably won't get that Oscar nomination for his motion-capture performance as Caesar the chimp.  But when Fox starts its campaign on his behalf, no one will be laughing.

WEEPERS

Avi Lerner:  You may never have heard of him, but he's produced 243 movies for his Nu Image and Millenium studios, most of them proud--and often profitable--pieces of low-budget schlock.  (Righteous Kill?  The Nicolas Cage remake of The Wicker Man?  Those were his.)  He had a breakout hit last year with The Expendables, and this year CONAN THE BARBARIAN was supposed to provide him with his first real franchise, at an expensive-for-him cost of $70-90M.  Now the movie will have to hope for huge overperformance overseas just to break even (although no doubt Lerner's own investment is covered by pre-release guarantees, from distributors who may not be his biggest fans today).

Bob Weinstein:  His Dimension genre brand was supposed to fund brother Harvey's swings for the Oscar fences.  But this week's disastrous reboot of SPY KIDS follows the disastrous reboot of Scream earlier this year; coming soon is another "found footage" horror movie with Apollo 18, and then a second chapter in the Piranha series, which didn't do all that well ($25M) the first time.

Anne Hathaway:  Remember that currently-vacant position of America's Sweetheart?  It wasn't so long ago that the job seemed Hathaway's for the taking, but the past year or so hasn't gone so well.  It's not that Hathaway is giving bad performances, or even choosing terrible movies (Love and Other Drugs was a tonal mess, but still entertaining, and One Day is a respectable failure)--she just seems to be pushing too hard, nowhere more so than during her painful-to-watch Oscar gig.  The Dark Knight Rises isn't likely to do much more for her than previous installments did for Katie Holmes or Maggie Gyllenhaal (odds are that Tom Hardy will be the movie's Heath Ledger and she'll be Aaron Eckhart), but that's OK as long as her Catwoman doesn't actually hurt the picture.

Colin Farrell:  After paying some dues with his fine performances in little films like In Bruges, Crazy Heart and Ondine, Fright Night was supposed to be Farrell's first step back to commercial viability--but even with good reviews, it turned out no one cared.  Up next is the much more expensive remake of Total Recall, whose producers can't be feeling too comfortable now that this week's Conan reboot fell flat on its face.

Openers:  Nothing much was happening in the arthouses this weekend.  John Sayles' AMIGO could only muster $4K per theatre in 10 despite guest appearances from Sayles and the actors, and MOZART'S SISTER wasn't much better with $4700 in each of 7.  The one seeming exception is misleading:  Kevin Smith's RED STATE pulled in $26K in a single LA theatre as part of its Oscar-qualifying week (it seems the picture, despite its massive Sundance hoopla, is going to VOD next month and may never have a conventional theatrical release), but that number was boosted by a Q&A with the motormouth maestro at every show.


  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU EARLY WEEKEND: FRIGHT BOXOFFICE

11:47 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,


According to Deadline, nothing much changed for the new boxoffice arrivals on Saturday.  THE HELP is still far in front for the weekend, with a beautiful $19-20M second weekend, and it's followed by RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, with its own impressive $16-17M third round. (Apes now looks like it will pull ahead of Captain America's $162M, and has a shot at beating Thor's $181M--while costing considerably less than either one of them.) 

The performance of the new group can't even be called mediocre.  SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD leads the pack, but with an opening weekend of around $11.5M, its total US gross may end up being less than the $33.4M opening weekend for Spy Kids 3 in 2003.  Wait, you think that's bad?  With an opening weekend of about $10.5M, the total US gross for CONAN THE BARBARIAN may not even reach the $39.6M total the Arnold Schwarzenegger original made... in 1982.  Similarly, with an opening weekend under $9M, FRIGHT NIGHT may not equal the $24.9M gross of its 1985 forebear. And all three of those had the benefit of inflated 3D ticket prices, on top of the regular inflation over the past few decades. Meanwhile, ONE DAY, in 1700 theatres, will struggle to get past a measly $5M for the weekend.  Make it stop...

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 20

2:13 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


THE HELP will be the year's first "serious" movie to gross over $100M.  September is traditionally one of the softest months on the movie release calendar, and 2011 is no exception:  although there are a few promising arrivals like Steven Soderbergh's Contagion and the film adaptation of  Moneyball, the major openings (they hope) include vehicles for Sarah Jessica Parker and Taylor Lautner, and not much else.  Propelled by massive word of mouth, The Help could play strongly all through the month.  


Although the new Oscar rules for Best Picture nominations are nearly impenetrable (we don't even know how many nominees there will be, somewhere between 5-10), The Help is certainly a possible factor.  Much more likely are nominations in acting and the visual categories like Production Design.  Oscar credentials will be very important to the film, because without them, its subject matter will place it in tough sledding overseas; even without international interest, though, the movie's $25M cost (plus moderate marketing) makes it a hit already.

After that, and aside from the continued strength of RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (another movie benefiting from the weak August competition), the news is all bad.  Even though FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD were modestly budgeted, their marketing costs were still at least $25-30M domestically, and they'll be lucky if their US grosses even exceed those numbers.  Even worse is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, which cost upward of $70M plus marketing; the financiers will need huge international business just to break even (Lionsgate only controls US rights, for which they reportedly paid $25M plus marketing--they'll be looking at red ink too).    

Similarly, the horribly reviewed ONE DAY (I had my own problems with it, but really it's not that terrible), despite a production cost of only $15M and relatively minimal marketing, will have to hope for a big response in the UK (where the story is set) to have any chance at breaking even.  

It's not as though people were rushing out to limited releases, either.  Despite very strong reviews, neither AMIGO nor THE HEDGEHOG is likely to do more than $5-6K per theatre in either of their small runs, and GRIFF THE INVISIBLE won't even get to $2K.

Next weekend, more of the same, although there's a welcome absence of shoddy 3D, and at least one of the openings is actually good:  OUR IDIOT BROTHER, a fun ensemble comedy acquired by Harvey Weinstein at Sundance.  It's joined by the somewhat buzzy horror movie DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK (produced by Guillermo del Toro), which was delayed when Disney got out of the Miramax business and is now with FilmDistrict (they had a notable horror success earlier this year with Insidious);  and Zoe Saldana in COLOMBIANA, from the Luc Besson international action-movie factory--you always know it's late summer when one of his movies shows up on the schedule. 

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for full weekend boxoffice and Mitch Metcalf's analysis, as well as international grosses as soon as they're available.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

FRIDAY AUGUST 19 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:11 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Help sits at the top of the heap thanks to a terrific 19% drop in its second weekend and especially thanks to the very weak crop of openers that make up that heap.  Spy Kids 4, Conan the Barbarian and Fright Night all are opening below forecast and headed for a quick end on VOD and PPV.  No, 3D could not help any of these three entries.  Movie quality is always more important than any given format, but 3D is really floundering.  Overall, the weekend is flat versus the same weekend last year (ending the string of five up weekends in a row).  

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World should open below forecast ($3.9 million Friday for an estimated $12.3 million opening weekend, compared to a $14.5 million prediction).  Spy Kids 4 (in 4D no less! – the fourth dimension is the stale smell of mediocrity) is on track for $31 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics nationwide have been almost universally negative about the film (only 18% positive at RottenTomatoes). 


Conan the Barbarian is opening well below forecast ($3.7 million Friday for an expected $10.8 million this weekend versus a $16.5 million forecast).  Conan is headed for $29 million in North America.  Critics nationwide remain unconvinced about the need for this latest Conan movie (29% positive at RottenTomatoes).   

Fright Night is also opening below forecast ($2.65 million Friday for an expected $8 million this weekend versus a $14 million forecast).  Fright Night is headed for $24 million in North America.  Critics remain extremely positive for this horror movie (74% positive at RottenTomatoes), but that shouldn’t help much as this movie is destined to leave the scene quickly.  Read Mitch Salem's review here.      

One Day is opening near its rather tiny forecast ($1.86 million Friday for an expected $5.3 million this weekend versus a $6 million prediction).  One Day is on pace for $13 million in North America, with a critical drubbing (27% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes).  Read Mitch Salem’s review here. 

In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions.     

The Help continues its very solid run with a second weekend drop of only 19% and an increase in booked theaters this week (+156), while Final Destination 5 is having an expected 57% decline in its second weekend.  In its third weekend, Rise of the Planet of the Apes should drop a very good 41% (even better than the 49% decline last week). 
  
August 19-21, 2011      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
The Help (DW/Dis)        [$20  ]    $21.0   $ 5.8     $133++
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$16  ]    $16.5   $ 4.6     $181+
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$14.5]    $12.3   $ 3.9     $ 31
Conan the Barbarian (LG) [$16.5]    $10.8   $ 3.7     $ 29
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$ 9  ]    $ 8.5   $ 2.2     $144
Fright Night (DW/Dis)    [$14  ]    $ 8.0   $ 2.6     $ 24
Final Destination 5 (WB) [$ 8.5]    $ 7.7   $ 2.4     $ 47
30 Minutes or Less (Sony)[$ 7  ]    $ 6.5   $ 2.0     $ 41
One Day (Focus)          [$ 6  ]    $ 5.3   $ 1.9     $ 13
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$ 4.5]    $ 5.0   $ 1.5     $ 80
Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$ 4.5]    $ 4.7   $ 1.2     $376

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 

Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (results to come later):
-- Amigo (drama) at 11 theaters
-- Mozart’s Sister (foreign) at seven theaters
-- 5 Days of War (action drama) at two theaters
-- Flypaper (crime comedy) at two theaters
-- Programming the Nation? (documentary) at one theater


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $110 million total, flat versus the same calendar weekend last year when Vampires Suck, Lottery Ticket and Piranha 3D opened (wow, what an opening weekend from hell to match this one).  

 Top 12 Films: Weekend #33
     Volume     (millions)
2011  $110  (+10% vs 2007-10 average; +0% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $100
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $110  Vampires Suck $12 Lottery Ticket $11 Piranha $10    
2009  $112  Inglorious Basterds $38, Shorts $6, Post Grad $3
2008  $ 89  The House Bunny $14.5, Death Race $13
2007  $ 89  Mr Bean’s Holiday $10, War $10, Nanny Diaries $7.5


Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.


Next Weekend

Opening next week are Columbiana from Sony, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark from FilmDistrict, and Our Idiot Brother from Weinstein.  Those movies will be compared to Takers ($20.5 million opening weekend), Last Exorcism ($20.4 million) and Avatar: Special Edition ($4 million). 

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU EARLY RETURNS - UPDATED: BOXOFFICE THE BARBARIAN

7:27 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


UPDATE:

Deadline has a clearer picture of the day's boxoffice, and THE HELP is already having a superb weekend, leading the day with $5.7M, down a tiny 25% from last week.  If this number holds, its full weekend could reach $19-20M, which would give it a total of $70M+ and a clear path to $100M.  It joins Midnight In Paris as the first genuine Oscar candidate of the year.

RETURN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should come in 2d with another $15-16M that would bring its total above $130M.  After that, it gets ugly.

SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD surprisingly seems to have the lead among the new arrivals even before weekend matinees begin, but that slim lead might not hold, and in any case its $13M opening would be a fraction of the $33M earned by Spy Kids 3 the last time out. 

CONAN THE BARBARIAN roused little interest and may not even reach $12M for the weekend.  Since word of mouth won't be its friend, Lionsgate may be hard-pressed to make back its investment of $25M for US distribution and probably at least that much again for domestic marketing.

When the Dreamworks/Disney execs are asked about FRIGHT NIGHT and its anemic weekend of $8-9M, they'll change the conversation back to The Help.  The picture has little chance of making back its $35M budget plus marketing.

ONE DAY doesn't seem likely even to hit its low $6M projection, if the $1.8M Friday number holds.  Although the film was relatively low budget and had smaller marketing costs than the other openings, that's still barely a pulse.  This would make two flops in a row for Anne Hathaway, after last year's Love And Other Drugs (and let's not mention her Oscar hosting gig); luckily, the next picture she has coming out is a little indie called The Dark Knight Rises.



 

We've gotten used to elections being called the moment the polls close, and now weekend boxoffice analysis begins while tickets are still being sold.  The Hollywood Reporter has fast Friday numbers, and they show a tightly bunched pack, with THE HELP, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD grossing $4-5.5M for the day.  This kind of result favors Apes (perhaps $15M for the weekend) and especially The Help ($18-19M) over Saturday and Sunday, because movies tend to be much less front-loaded after their opening weekends are over.  Spy Kids, too, may benefit from matinee business on Saturday, and get to $14-15M, while Conan ($13-14M) and Fright Night ($12-13M) are more likely to dip after today. 

ONE DAY is described as described as "starting off slow," and considering that the picture is in a half-hearted release of 1700 theatres and was expected only to make $6M or so for the weekend, one wonders just how soft that number is.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend as the numbers roll in, and look for Mitch Metcalf's analysis of the Friday grosses and weekend estimates.  (His predictions for the weekend are here.) 

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU REVIEW: "One Day"

4:14 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


ONE DAY - Watch It At Home:  An Off-Day

What went wrong with ONE DAY?  It's been clear for a while that its studio, Focus Features, didn't have great confidence in the film:  first  they postponed the opening from its original midsummer date to late August (which has turned out to be an even worse destination than it appeared, now that it's facing the surprise smash The Help), and then it was withheld from critics until 3 days before hitting theaters--the same treatment given to Conan the Barbarian.  

All this came as an enormous surprise as it unfolded, because when the movie was being made, it seemed like the filmmakers were doing everything right.  They allowed David Nicholls, author of the best-selling and well-liked novel, to write his own adaptation; hired Lone Scherfig, fresh off the acclaimed An Education, to direct; and as the two leads, they cast Anne Hathaway, who's as talented as she is successful (an American, but that's not an insuperable problem), and Jim Sturgess,  a fast-rising British leading man.  And yet....

One Day, novel and film, is based around a narrative gimmick:  it introduces the protagonists Emma and Dexter (Hathaway and Sturgess) on July 15, 1988, the day they both graduated from college and had an almost-one-night-stand that turned into a friendship, and follows their story by presenting a snapshot of their lives on each July 15 that follows, all the way to the present (it turns out that the date has more significance than was at first evident, but to say any more would be a spoiler).  Although Dex and Em become best friends, they drive each other crazy (Emma's feelings for Dex aren't requited; Dex is such a shallow narcissist that he barely seems to have feelings at all) and are often apart over the years, each with career and romantic trajectories that rise and fall.  The novel provides a social history of life over the past two decades even as it builds up the portraits of its protagonists, and also has more than a little to say about the process of getting older and facing one's life in the real world. 

The film is, in a technical sense, a faithful adaptation of the book, in that it mostly follows the general events and storyline of the novel.   But it doesn't even come close to working in the way it's supposed to; it's limp and uninvolving, with no momentum.  A great deal of the problem turns out to be the very thing that made the book stand out in the first place:  its narrative scheme.  Even though each episode of the novel takes place on a single day per year, the nature of prose fiction is that Nicholls is easily able to go into the heads of the characters to present events that led up to that day and how their thoughts and feelings have evolved over the preceding year.  The movie, which squeezes the decades-long story into 106 minutes, can't do the same, and the result is that not only is the structure schematic, but most of the episodes are schematic too, loaded with exposition and having the feel of free-standing one-act sketches.  So much background's been cut that everything happening in the characters' professional careers feels arbitrary, and there's no nuance to them as people.

Added to this is the sad fact that there's no romantic chemistry at all between Hathaway and Sturgess.  Every time Emma and Dexter are together, they might as well have just been introduced; the emotional bond between them that's essential to pull the episodes together is absent.  The result is disastrous for the leads.  Hathaway doesn't give a bad performance as such, but until the film's last half-hour, Emma is defined almost totally by her pathetic love-lorn feelings for Dex--she's drained of almost all other emotions and relationships, and it makes her seem bland and borderline annoying (Hathaway's English accent is inconsistent and anonymous, which doesn't help).  Romola Garai, in a much smaller role that doesn't begin until the story's second half, gets more shading as a character than Hathaway does.  As for Sturgess, he's now starred in several major films (21, Across the Universe, The Way Back), and although his performances have been perfectly professional in all of them, he's yet to make a really striking impression.  He's never believable as a self-centered, insensitive man or someone out of control here--even when Dex is at his nastiest, Sturgess still seems like a nice guy--and thus his character's arc provides little satisfaction. 

In all the superficial ways, One Day is beautifully made.  Scherfig and cinematographer Benoit Delhomme have bathed the film in gorgeous light (even when the characters are living in shabby near-poverty), and there's a lovely score by Rachel Portman.  Barney Pilling's editing no doubt does what it was intended to do, which is to move briskly from one episode to the next  The production, hair and make-up, and costume design mostly do a fine job of shifting along the decades without becoming cartoonish.  Everything is there on screen, except the pieces that are most crucial.

One Day, with all its flaws, has an intelligence and skill that isn't evident in many Hollywood romances, but it lacks charm and passion.  It's a wan disappointment, a romance that doesn't linger even for a day in the mind or heart.
 

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 19-21

11:49 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Now that we are in mid-August, let the true dumping of movies begin!  Sure they can be called summer movies, but films the next few weeks have little hope of turning in impressive box office results.  The Help (a truly rare August hit) should continue at #1 with a very small second weekend decline, while Conan the Barbarian, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World and Fright Night duke it out with average (at best) returns.   

Opening at more than 2,900 theaters in North America by Lionsgate, Conan the Barbarian should average a slightly above par $5,700 per theater (for $16.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  With a small number of reviews posted at RottenTomatoes so far, critical opinion is mixed (52% positive).  This 3D entry should be on track for around $50 million total in North America, more proof that 3D is not the guarantee for success.


At about 3,000 theaters, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World from Weinstein/Dimension should average $4,850 (for $14.5 million this weekend).  No reviews yet for this movie, which has not been made available for critics (who would likely dump all over it).  This attempt at a franchise resuscitation is probably headed for around $60 million domestically. 

Opening at 2,900 theaters from DreamWorks and distributed by Disney, Fright Night should average $4,900 from Friday-Sunday (for a $14 million opening weekend).  Early reviews have been positive at RottenTomatoes (69% positive, which is near unanimity for a horror film).  This movie is most likely on track for $40 million in North America.     

Finally, opening at about 1,600 theaters, One Day from Focus/Universal should average a below average $3,700 per theater (for a meager $6 million opening weekend).  (The average wide-release film averages $4,900 per theater in its opening weekend).  Reviews have been brutal so far at RottenTomatoes (25% positive in the early returns).  One Day is probably headed for a domestic total of $14 million, if that.

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
August 19-21                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Conan the Barbarian      LG  R      52%      $ 16.5    $ 50
Spy Kids: All Time     Wein  PG     n/a      $ 14.5    $ 60
Fright Night         DW/Dis  R      69%      $ 14.0    $ 40
One Day               Focus  PG13   25%      $  6.0    $ 14

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Help should remain #1 with an amazing 22% decline thanks to strong word-of-mouth among its older demographic, who do not rush out to movies the first weekend.  This film will play for some time.  Final Destination 5 will have a typical decline for a horror sequel (54%), while Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Smurfs continue to cruise nicely with declines around 40%. 

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
August 19-21                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

The Help            DW/Dis        -22%      $20       $100
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -43%      $16       $175
The Smurfs            Sony        -37%      $ 9       $140
Final Destination 5     WB        -54%      $ 8.5     $ 45
30 Minutes or Less    Sony        -47%      $ 7       $ 40
Crazy, Stupid, Love.    WB        -38%      $ 4.5     $ 80
Harry Potter Deathly 2  WB        -37%      $ 4.5     $370


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $100 million total, ranking 39th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $110 million, and the year before was $112 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $125 million, up about 13% from this weekend last year.  This would be the sixth up weekend in a row.   


This Weekend Last Two Years

8.20.10

 Vampires Suck FOX PG13 Ken Jeong  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $13  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $35  Actual: $37
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $44

 Piranha 3D WEINS R Richard Dreyfuss Elizabeth Shue 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $29  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $57

 Nanny McPhee Returns UNI PG Emma Thompson Maggie Gyllenhaal 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33  Actual: $29
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $64

 Lottery Ticket WB PG13 Bow Wow Brandon T Jackson 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9  Actual: $11
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $26  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

 The Switch MIR PG13 Jason Bateman Jennifer Aniston 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $6  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $28  Actual: $28
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $22

8.21.09

 Inglourious Basterds WEINS R Brad Pitt Diane Kruger 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $28  Actual: $38
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $127  Actual: $121
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $193

 Shorts WB PG Jon Cryer William H Macy 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $6
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $24  Actual: $21
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $5

 Post Grad FOX PG13 Alexis Bledel Michael Keaton 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $4  Actual: $6
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0


Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Mid-Week Update

3:18 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


With Monday and Tuesday numbers in, here are some notes about how the new arrivals are holding up:

THE HELP continues its impressive run:  its $8.3M on Monday-Tuesday represents a very robust 32% of its weekend total.  All signs continue to point to a strong second weekend hold, especially since early reviews for its direct competitor ONE DAY are fairly disastrous, running at only 28% positive on RottenTomatoes.


FINAL DESTINATION 5, on the other hand, has weekday numbers of $3.9M, a measly 22% of its $18M weekend.  Not unusually for its genre, it should flame out quickly--which would potentially leave the way clear for Dreamworks/Disney's FRIGHT NIGHT, if anyone cared that that movie exists.  (The studio has scheduled "Sneak Peek" screenings of the latter film around 9PM Thursday night, in an effort to build word of mouth for those who can't be roused for a midnight show.)

30 MINUTES OR LESS is holding better in a percentage sense, with $3.7M equaling 28% of its weekend--but at those numbers, even a good hold won't mean much.  Its main competition this weekend is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, a movie which while only at 44% on RottenTomatoes, doesn't care much about its reviews.

In the same boat as 30 Minutes only more so (less so?) is GLEE 3D, whose $1.6M is 27% of its weekend as it heads to oblivion.  Supplanting it in the hearts of young viewers this weekend will be SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, billed as being in "4D" because it features odors as well as objects protruding from the screen.  The Weinstein Company seems to have little interest in showing this one to critics.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 13

1:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Let's take a look at just how remarkably THE HELP is performing so far.  

The most obvious points of comparison are the literary-sourced, female-skewing hits of the last 2 Augusts:  Julie & Julia in 2009, and last year's Eat Pray Love.  Julia had a $20M opening that led to a $94M domestic gross; Eat was a little more front-loaded, with a $23M start on its way to an $80M total.  The Help will beat Julia's opening and has a fair chance of surpassing both of them--but only Help came to Friday with $10M already in the bank thanks to its Wednesday opening, which doesn't seem to have dampened its weekend at all.  Also, while both Julia and Eat were escapist entertainments, with easily promotable subjects like gourmet food and fabulous foreign locations (along with stars like Meryl Streep, Amy Adams and Julia Roberts), The Help is a serious period piece about the Civil Rights era that features Emma Stone only as part of an ensemble of mostly African-American actresses.    (These factors, however, may be more serious hindrances overseas, where Help is more likely to echo Julia's $35M boxoffice than Eat's lofty $124M.)  Oh, and Help's budget is $25M, far below Julia's $40M and Eat's $60M.

DreamWorks seems to have captured the audience that Lionsgate was hoping to get last year with Tyler Perry's For Colored Girls:  a combination of African-American and arthouse crowds.  It's very hard to tell how this will play out over time, as the African-American audience is notoriously front-loaded (as has been the case with all of Perry's movies), while arthouses are exactly the opposite.  In any case, The Help faces little direct competition over the next several weeks:  just One Day next Friday (which Focus has been oddly shy about marketing), Sarah Jessica Parker's I Don't Know How She Does It on September 16, and then on a more general prestige-movie level, Moneyball the following week.

Along with the immediate financial return, the success of The Help should help give it credence in the march to year-end awards--although this gets complicated.  DreamWorks has a little movie called War Horse on its way from studio patriarch Steven Spielberg, and that film will almost certainly get the lion's share of the Best Picture push.  However, War Horse is less likely to be in contention for performance awards, so the way is clear for DreamWorks to push Help's cast for Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  The question, though, will be:  who in which category?  This is especially important for Viola Davis, who would probably be the early frontrunner for Supporting Actress right now, but arguably is as much the lead in Help as Emma Stone--however, if Davis chooses to campaign for Actress, she'll face competition like Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.  

Of course, these are high-class problems to have.

The rest of the Friday numbers are far less interesting.  RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES had a perfectly decent hold, but one that feels a little soft given its supposedly excellent word of mouth. The flop of 30 MINUTES OR LESS demonstrates that Jesse Eisenberg and Aziz Ansari aren't yet boxoffice draws, and that (especially combined with Your Highness earlier this year) Danny McBride is at best a cult figure who puts off as many people as he attracts.  FINAL DESTINATION 5 will probably top out at about $50M, but the big question is how it will do overseas, where the last chapter in the franchise almost doubled its US gross.  And GLEE 3D won't make any profit (unless it scores a hit on homevideo), but serves as an infomercial for the TV series mothership.

A quiet week for limited releases, with the documentary SENNA pulling in the only opening of any note, a very solid $30-35K in each of its 2 theatres.  

When they talk about the dog days of summer, next weekend is what they mean.  Along with the previously mentioned and curiously unpublicized ONE DAY (starring Anne Hathaway, based on a high-quality, best-selling novel--where's the buzz?), we get not one, not two, but three 3D reboots of pictures that weren't all that good the first time:  CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS.  A good weekend to go to the beach, or catch up on your DVR queue.




  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: Universal

10:13 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


With a summer movie season bracketed by the first weekend in May on one end, and Labor Day on the other, we've reached the midpoint of 2011's array of blockbusters, and for the next week, here at SHOWBUZZDAILY, we'll be providing our judgments on how the studios are doing.  US Grosses and Overseas Grosses are as of July 10, 2011.

Today:  Kabletown Studios



MOVIES IN RELEASE

FAST FIVE
US Release:  April 29
US Gross:  $208,769,000
Overseas Gross:  $392,831,354
Worldwide Total:  $601,600,354

BRIDESMAIDS
US Release:  May 13
US Gross:  $158,186,000
Overseas Gross:  $48,500,000
Worldwide Total:  $206,686,000 

BEGINNERS (Focus Features)
US Release:  June 3
US Gross:  $2,697,327
Overseas Gross:  n/a (Focus only controls certain territories)
Worldwide Total: n/a

LARRY CROWNE
US Release:  July 1
US Gross:  $26,526,000
Overseas Gross:  $8,400,000
Worldwide Total:: $34,926,000

THE MONEY
 
Universal's summer score comes with a big asterisk:  properly speaking, FAST FIVE's April 29 opening placed it outside Hollywood's "summer."  Deleting that $600M from its numbers would make quite a difference.  But since the film opened just a week before the summer's "official" start with Thor, it was marketed as a summer movie and had the bulk of its playing time during summer, it (sort-of) counts.  Financially the picture was a bonanza, the franchise's highest grosser both domestically and overseas, and a particularly huge hit internationally--it could end up doubling the second-highest overseas gross of the series.  (Needless to say, a sixth installment is on the way.) 

BRIDESMAIDS is a much smaller hit, but an even bigger surprise for the studio:  the low-budgeted R-rated comedy with no stars has turned into the biggest smash ever from Judd Apatow's production company, and kicked off a summer of R-rated comedy success.  Since no one except Apatow will get a large back-end on this picture, there should be plenty of profit for the studio.

LARRY CROWNE is a flop, but Universal was strictly a distributor on it, with no financial investment beyond marketing costs.  Even so, the picture  may take a while to hit breakeven, but Universal is in much better shape than the film's financiers.

On the limited release side, BEGINNERS is taking its time expanding beyond art houses--this weekend it added 47 theatres for a total of 155, and saw its per-theatre gross decline to a still-acceptable $3500 or so.  If it can play out the rest of the summer, it could develop into a modest success. 

THE QUALITY

Fast Five successfully pushed the franchise into the heist genre, and may have had the smartest casting idea of the summer by adding The Rock to the movie's crew.  The result wasn't brainy, but it was fun.

Showbuzzdaily was in the minority on Bridesmaids (89% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), which was undeniably enjoyed by vast numbers of moviegoers.  Director Paul Feig, writer/star Kristen Wiig and her co-stars are all big talents, so more power to them.  Larry Crowne, on the other hand, was a misfire that left a bad aftertaste.

Beginners is a marvelous, very little movie that probably won't reach a wide audience, but is at least being seen. 

STILL TO COME

COWBOYS & ALIENS - July 29:  Universal can't seem to figure out how to sell this big-budget, high-concept whatsit.  There have been multiple trailers, some playing up the western genre, some the star power of Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford, others the scifi special effects.  That kind of muddled sell usually doesn't help at the boxoffice.

THE CHANGE-UP - August 5: Jason Bateman's new hit with Horrible Bosses may boost this R-rated body-switch comedy, which seemed doomed after Ryan Reynolds failed to thrill anyone as the Green Lantern.  Although it follows Friends With Benefits and Crazy Stupid Love in the summer line-up, this one could skew more to a male audience.   

ONE DAY (Focus) - August 19:   This initially seemed like a no-brainer:  Anne Hathaway in a romantic comedy drama based on a bestselling (and extremely good) book, from the director of An Education.  The decision to push opening day from midsummer to the last couple of weeks before Labor Day doesn't bode well, though.  

MIDSUMMER GRADES:

THE MONEY:  Split grade -- B+ if Cowboys & Aliens succeeds, C+ if it flops.

THE QUALITY:  C+, higher for the rest of the world that loved Bridesmaids.

Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)