Movie Box Review

Showing posts with label fright night. Show all posts

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes August 27 - Be Afraid of the Boxoffice

12:13 PM | Labels: Apollo 18, August, boxoffice footnotes, Colombiana, conan, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, fright night, Higher Ground, one day, Our Idiot Brother, Shark Night, spy kids, The Bijou, The Debt, the help

The full extent of theatre closings and other Hurricane Irene-related events isn't yet known, so projections may be high at this point.

That being said, this was never going to be a good weekend at the boxoffice: in late August, the studios don't open their heavy hitters. What audiences there are continue to flock to THE HELP, which should go over $100M by the end of this week, and has little real competition for its target audience over the next several weekends. The question that won't be answered for a few months is whether the picture will be able to keep enough momentum going to propel itself into serious awards contention.

None of the new releases this weekend will make a lot of cash, so success or failure will have more to do with their costs. On that scale, OUR IDIOT BROTHER, despite its relatively lowly gross, may not be as big a failure as it seems: The Weinstein Company paid $6M for distribution rights plus a marketing commitment of $15M, and if the film can eke its way to the $24M Mitch Metcalf predicts, there might be enough for a small profit, particularly because it has a very cable-TV-friendly cast.

DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, on the other hand, cost a reported $25M to produce, and FilmDistrict's marketing campaign probably wasn't smaller (and may have been larger) than Idiot's, putting it deeper in the hole.

As with most of the product produced by Luc Besson's company, COLOMBIANA's success will be largely based on its international results; its projected $28M US gross won't even bring it to breakeven.

All of the terrible 3D reboots from last weekend collapsed even further this time around: don't look for further chapters in the CONAN THE BARBARIAN, SPY KIDS or FRIGHT NIGHT sagas. ONE DAY didn't show any positive word of mouth either.

A few limited releases expanded this weekend and saw decent numbers. SARAH'S KEY increased its theatre count by about 35% and held steady (meaning its per-theatre number slipped), while SENNA nearly doubled its count (still at only 34) and saw its total rise modestly, a similar result.

It's particularly important to note the effect of Irene on the new, very limited releases: Vera Farmiga's excellent HIGHER GROUND was looking to gross $13K or so at each of its 3 theatres, but 2 of those theatres are in Manhattan, and if they're closed or deserted, that will obviously have a serious effect on the weekend total. Similarly, the very good CIRCUMSTANCE, about rebelling teens in Iran, was headed to a good $8K or so in each of 6 theatres, but half of those are in the NY area.

Labor Day is historically the one holiday weekend when Americans don't go to the movies, and consequently, 2 cheap horror movies lead the pack with APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT 3D. Also, Focus had a minor success last Labor Day with a Wednesday opening for THE AMERICAN, so they're going to try the same slot for THE DEBT, another international action film. But without George Clooney in the lead--and with the probability of blah reviews for a movie that's been sitting on the shelf for a year--they may not duplicate that feat.

Read User's Comments(0)

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 19-21 Weekend Winners and Weepers

6:16 PM | Labels: August, boxoffice footnotes, conan, davis, farrell, fright night, hathaway, one day, Red State, Spencer, spy kids, stone, The Bijou, the help, Weepers, Winners

There's not much to add about the weekend grosses that hasn't been said (see Mitch Metcalf's round-up report here), so let's take a look at who, apart from the studios themselves, did and didn't have a fun weekend:

WINNERS

Women of THE HELP: Emma Stone isn't likely to get Oscar consideration for her performance, being the "White Actress in an African-American Story" (for a particularly egregious example of this criticism, see Patrick Goldstein's column today--as a rule of thumb, if you have to cite Armond White as back-up for your argument, you may want to rethink the debate). But she's still the biggest name in a smash hit, and her supporting role in the sleeper CRAZY STUPID LOVE doesn't hurt either--assuming that the Spider-Man reboot doesn't go splat next summer, she'll have as much claim as anyone to the currently vacant title of America's Sweetheart. Meanwhile, Viola Davis has a big decision to make: campaign for the Oscar as Best Actress (which she might not win, but just being nominated could bring her to a new level in the industry) or Supporting (where she would have a serious chance at victory)? Her decision will directly impact co-star Octavia Spencer, who has a much better chance of making the cut in Supporting with Davis in the leading category. (There's also the chance Sissy Spacek could pull a Supporting nomination for her tasty little role as Bryce Dallas Howard's mother, but probably not--see "White Actress in an African-American Story," above.) Not in the same gender pool but still a Winner is director Tate Taylor, who went from being utterly unknown to the man behind a giant success, without having to direct music videos or make a stop at Sundance.

Expanders: Several limited releases widened their runs this weekend with generally good results. SARAH'S KEY made $3900 at each of 201 theatres; THE GUARD did $5200 at 83; THE WHISTLEBLOWER, $3200 at 44; and SENNA, $12K at 14. (THE FUTURE did less well, with $2K at 32.)

Andy Serkis: He probably won't get that Oscar nomination for his motion-capture performance as Caesar the chimp. But when Fox starts its campaign on his behalf, no one will be laughing.

WEEPERS

Avi Lerner: You may never have heard of him, but he's produced 243 movies for his Nu Image and Millenium studios, most of them proud--and often profitable--pieces of low-budget schlock. (Righteous Kill? The Nicolas Cage remake of The Wicker Man? Those were his.) He had a breakout hit last year with The Expendables, and this year CONAN THE BARBARIAN was supposed to provide him with his first real franchise, at an expensive-for-him cost of $70-90M. Now the movie will have to hope for huge overperformance overseas just to break even (although no doubt Lerner's own investment is covered by pre-release guarantees, from distributors who may not be his biggest fans today).

Bob Weinstein: His Dimension genre brand was supposed to fund brother Harvey's swings for the Oscar fences. But this week's disastrous reboot of SPY KIDS follows the disastrous reboot of Scream earlier this year; coming soon is another "found footage" horror movie with Apollo 18, and then a second chapter in the Piranha series, which didn't do all that well ($25M) the first time.

Anne Hathaway: Remember that currently-vacant position of America's Sweetheart? It wasn't so long ago that the job seemed Hathaway's for the taking, but the past year or so hasn't gone so well. It's not that Hathaway is giving bad performances, or even choosing terrible movies (Love and Other Drugs was a tonal mess, but still entertaining, and One Day is a respectable failure)--she just seems to be pushing too hard, nowhere more so than during her painful-to-watch Oscar gig. The Dark Knight Rises isn't likely to do much more for her than previous installments did for Katie Holmes or Maggie Gyllenhaal (odds are that Tom Hardy will be the movie's Heath Ledger and she'll be Aaron Eckhart), but that's OK as long as her Catwoman doesn't actually hurt the picture.

Colin Farrell: After paying some dues with his fine performances in little films like In Bruges, Crazy Heart and Ondine, Fright Night was supposed to be Farrell's first step back to commercial viability--but even with good reviews, it turned out no one cared. Up next is the much more expensive remake of Total Recall, whose producers can't be feeling too comfortable now that this week's Conan reboot fell flat on its face.

Openers: Nothing much was happening in the arthouses this weekend. John Sayles' AMIGO could only muster $4K per theatre in 10 despite guest appearances from Sayles and the actors, and MOZART'S SISTER wasn't much better with $4700 in each of 7. The one seeming exception is misleading: Kevin Smith's RED STATE pulled in $26K in a single LA theatre as part of its Oscar-qualifying week (it seems the picture, despite its massive Sundance hoopla, is going to VOD next month and may never have a conventional theatrical release), but that number was boosted by a Q&A with the motormouth maestro at every show.

Read User's Comments(0)

THE BIJOU EARLY WEEKEND: FRIGHT BOXOFFICE

11:47 PM | Labels: apes, boxoffice, conan, fright night, one day, spy kids, The Bijou, the help

According to Deadline, nothing much changed for the new boxoffice arrivals on Saturday. THE HELP is still far in front for the weekend, with a beautiful $19-20M second weekend, and it's followed by RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, with its own impressive $16-17M third round. (Apes now looks like it will pull ahead of Captain America's $162M, and has a shot at beating Thor's $181M--while costing considerably less than either one of them.)

The performance of the new group can't even be called mediocre. SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD leads the pack, but with an opening weekend of around $11.5M, its total US gross may end up being less than the $33.4M opening weekend for Spy Kids 3 in 2003. Wait, you think that's bad? With an opening weekend of about $10.5M, the total US gross for CONAN THE BARBARIAN may not even reach the $39.6M total the Arnold Schwarzenegger original made... in 1982. Similarly, with an opening weekend under $9M, FRIGHT NIGHT may not equal the $24.9M gross of its 1985 forebear. And all three of those had the benefit of inflated 3D ticket prices, on top of the regular inflation over the past few decades. Meanwhile, ONE DAY, in 1700 theatres, will struggle to get past a measly $5M for the weekend. Make it stop...

Read User's Comments(0)

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 20

2:13 PM | Labels: August, boxoffice footnotes, Colombiana, conan, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, fright night, one day, Our Idiot Brother, spy kids, The Bijou, the help

THE HELP will be the year's first "serious" movie to gross over $100M. September is traditionally one of the softest months on the movie release calendar, and 2011 is no exception: although there are a few promising arrivals like Steven Soderbergh's Contagion and the film adaptation of Moneyball, the major openings (they hope) include vehicles for Sarah Jessica Parker and Taylor Lautner, and not much else. Propelled by massive word of mouth, The Help could play strongly all through the month.

Although the new Oscar rules for Best Picture nominations are nearly impenetrable (we don't even know how many nominees there will be, somewhere between 5-10), The Help is certainly a possible factor. Much more likely are nominations in acting and the visual categories like Production Design. Oscar credentials will be very important to the film, because without them, its subject matter will place it in tough sledding overseas; even without international interest, though, the movie's $25M cost (plus moderate marketing) makes it a hit already.

After that, and aside from the continued strength of RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (another movie benefiting from the weak August competition), the news is all bad. Even though FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD were modestly budgeted, their marketing costs were still at least $25-30M domestically, and they'll be lucky if their US grosses even exceed those numbers. Even worse is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, which cost upward of $70M plus marketing; the financiers will need huge international business just to break even (Lionsgate only controls US rights, for which they reportedly paid $25M plus marketing--they'll be looking at red ink too).

Similarly, the horribly reviewed ONE DAY (I had my own problems with it, but really it's not that terrible), despite a production cost of only $15M and relatively minimal marketing, will have to hope for a big response in the UK (where the story is set) to have any chance at breaking even.

It's not as though people were rushing out to limited releases, either. Despite very strong reviews, neither AMIGO nor THE HEDGEHOG is likely to do more than $5-6K per theatre in either of their small runs, and GRIFF THE INVISIBLE won't even get to $2K.

Next weekend, more of the same, although there's a welcome absence of shoddy 3D, and at least one of the openings is actually good: OUR IDIOT BROTHER, a fun ensemble comedy acquired by Harvey Weinstein at Sundance. It's joined by the somewhat buzzy horror movie DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK (produced by Guillermo del Toro), which was delayed when Disney got out of the Miramax business and is now with FilmDistrict (they had a notable horror success earlier this year with Insidious); and Zoe Saldana in COLOMBIANA, from the Luc Besson international action-movie factory--you always know it's late summer when one of his movies shows up on the schedule.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for full weekend boxoffice and Mitch Metcalf's analysis, as well as international grosses as soon as they're available.

Read User's Comments(0)

FRIDAY AUGUST 19 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:11 AM | Labels: 30 minutes, 3D, barbarian, boxoffice, conan, Early, film, final destination, fright night, glee 3D, movies, Numbers, one day, spy kids 4, the help, Weekend

The Help sits at the top of the heap thanks to a terrific 19% drop in its second weekend and especially thanks to the very weak crop of openers that make up that heap. Spy Kids 4, Conan the Barbarian and Fright Night all are opening below forecast and headed for a quick end on VOD and PPV. No, 3D could not help any of these three entries. Movie quality is always more important than any given format, but 3D is really floundering. Overall, the weekend is flat versus the same weekend last year (ending the string of five up weekends in a row).

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World should open below forecast ($3.9 million Friday for an estimated $12.3 million opening weekend, compared to a $14.5 million prediction).  Spy Kids 4 (in 4D no less! – the fourth dimension is the stale smell of mediocrity) is on track for $31 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday. Critics nationwide have been almost universally negative about the film (only 18% positive at RottenTomatoes).

Conan the Barbarian is opening well below forecast ($3.7 million Friday for an expected $10.8 million this weekend versus a $16.5 million forecast). Conan is headed for $29 million in North America. Critics nationwide remain unconvinced about the need for this latest Conan movie (29% positive at RottenTomatoes).

Fright Night is also opening below forecast ($2.65 million Friday for an expected $8 million this weekend versus a $14 million forecast).  Fright Night is headed for $24 million in North America.  Critics remain extremely positive for this horror movie (74% positive at RottenTomatoes), but that shouldn’t help much as this movie is destined to leave the scene quickly. Read Mitch Salem's review here.

One Day is opening near its rather tiny forecast ($1.86 million Friday for an expected $5.3 million this weekend versus a $6 million prediction).  One Day is on pace for $13 million in North America, with a critical drubbing (27% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes). Read Mitch Salem’s review here.

In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions.

The Help continues its very solid run with a second weekend drop of only 19% and an increase in booked theaters this week (+156), while Final Destination 5 is having an expected 57% decline in its second weekend. In its third weekend, Rise of the Planet of the Apes should drop a very good 41% (even better than the 49% decline last week).

August 19-21, 2011      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj. Actual   Final*
The Help (DW/Dis)        [$20 ]    $21.0   $ 5.8     $133++
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$16 ]    $16.5   $ 4.6     $181+
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$14.5]    $12.3   $ 3.9     $ 31
Conan the Barbarian (LG) [$16.5]    $10.8   $ 3.7     $ 29
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$ 9 ]    $ 8.5   $ 2.2     $144
Fright Night (DW/Dis)    [$14 ]    $ 8.0   $ 2.6     $ 24
Final Destination 5 (WB) [$ 8.5]    $ 7.7   $ 2.4     $ 47
30 Minutes or Less (Sony)[$ 7 ]    $ 6.5   $ 2.0     $ 41
One Day (Focus)          [$ 6 ]    $ 5.3   $ 1.9     $ 13
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$ 4.5]    $ 5.0   $ 1.5     $ 80
Harry Potter 8  (WB) [$ 4.5]    $ 4.7   $ 1.2     $376

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.

Limited Releases

Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (results to come later):
-- Amigo (drama) at 11 theaters
-- Mozart’s Sister (foreign) at seven theaters
-- 5 Days of War (action drama) at two theaters
-- Flypaper (crime comedy) at two theaters
-- Programming the Nation? (documentary) at one theater

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $110 million total, flat versus the same calendar weekend last year when Vampires Suck, Lottery Ticket and Piranha 3D opened (wow, what an opening weekend from hell to match this one).

Top 12 Films: Weekend #33
     Volume   (millions)
2011  $110 (+10% vs 2007-10 average; +0% vs 2010)

2007-10
Avg   $100
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $110  Vampires Suck $12 Lottery Ticket $11 Piranha $10
2009  $112 Inglorious Basterds $38, Shorts $6, Post Grad $3
2008  $ 89 The House Bunny $14.5, Death Race $13
2007  $ 89  Mr Bean’s Holiday $10, War $10, Nanny Diaries $7.5

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Columbiana from Sony, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark from FilmDistrict, and Our Idiot Brother from Weinstein. Those movies will be compared to Takers ($20.5 million opening weekend), Last Exorcism ($20.4 million) and Avatar: Special Edition ($4 million).

Read User's Comments(0)

THE BIJOU EARLY RETURNS - UPDATED: BOXOFFICE THE BARBARIAN

7:27 PM | Labels: apes, August, boxoffice, conan, Friday, fright night, one day, spy kids, The Bijou, the help

UPDATE:

Deadline has a clearer picture of the day's boxoffice, and THE HELP is already having a superb weekend, leading the day with $5.7M, down a tiny 25% from last week. If this number holds, its full weekend could reach $19-20M, which would give it a total of $70M+ and a clear path to $100M. It joins Midnight In Paris as the first genuine Oscar candidate of the year.

RETURN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should come in 2d with another $15-16M that would bring its total above $130M. After that, it gets ugly.

SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD surprisingly seems to have the lead among the new arrivals even before weekend matinees begin, but that slim lead might not hold, and in any case its $13M opening would be a fraction of the $33M earned by Spy Kids 3 the last time out.

CONAN THE BARBARIAN roused little interest and may not even reach $12M for the weekend. Since word of mouth won't be its friend, Lionsgate may be hard-pressed to make back its investment of $25M for US distribution and probably at least that much again for domestic marketing.

When the Dreamworks/Disney execs are asked about FRIGHT NIGHT and its anemic weekend of $8-9M, they'll change the conversation back to The Help. The picture has little chance of making back its $35M budget plus marketing.

ONE DAY doesn't seem likely even to hit its low $6M projection, if the $1.8M Friday number holds. Although the film was relatively low budget and had smaller marketing costs than the other openings, that's still barely a pulse. This would make two flops in a row for Anne Hathaway, after last year's Love And Other Drugs (and let's not mention her Oscar hosting gig); luckily, the next picture she has coming out is a little indie called The Dark Knight Rises.

We've gotten used to elections being called the moment the polls close, and now weekend boxoffice analysis begins while tickets are still being sold. The Hollywood Reporter has fast Friday numbers, and they show a tightly bunched pack, with THE HELP, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD grossing $4-5.5M for the day. This kind of result favors Apes (perhaps $15M for the weekend) and especially The Help ($18-19M) over Saturday and Sunday, because movies tend to be much less front-loaded after their opening weekends are over. Spy Kids, too, may benefit from matinee business on Saturday, and get to $14-15M, while Conan ($13-14M) and Fright Night ($12-13M) are more likely to dip after today.

ONE DAY is described as described as "starting off slow," and considering that the picture is in a half-hearted release of 1700 theatres and was expected only to make $6M or so for the weekend, one wonders just how soft that number is.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend as the numbers roll in, and look for Mitch Metcalf's analysis of the Friday grosses and weekend estimates. (His predictions for the weekend are here.)

Read User's Comments(0)

THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Fright Night"

12:07 PM | Labels: anton yelchin, August, collette, Comedy, disney, DreamWorks, farrell, fright night, gillespie, horror, movie reviews, noxon, poots, tennant, The Bijou

FRIGHT NIGHT - Watch It At Home: At Least Farrell Had Fun

The new remake of Tom Holland's 1985 FRIGHT NIGHT has a great set of credentials. Craig Gillespie, the director, was behind the well-regarded indie Lars and the Real Girl, and has since been house director of United States of Tara for Showtime. The cast includes Anton Yelchin, about to make a big splash in the wonderful Sundance prize-winner Like Crazy, along with Colin Farrell, the very talented young British actress Imogen Poots, David Tennant, and Gillespie's Tara star Toni Collette. And most notably, the new script is by Marti Noxon, who cut her--sorry--teeth on the classic Buffy the Vampire Slayer and has since worked on shows like Angel, Mad Men and Grey's Anatomy.

And with all that, mostly it's just another crappy horror movie with a supposed comic edge. Holland's picture (which grossed only $25M in 1985, so this is hardly a grab for the riches of a lucrative franchise) was an arch, even campy black comedy in which Charley (William Ragsdale), obsessed with horror movies and lore, came to realize that his new next door neighbor Jerry (Chris Sarandon) was actually a vampire, and enlisted the services of Peter Vincent (Roddy McDowell), host of the local low-rent, late-night horror TV show, to bring him down.

That basic outline is still the plot of the remake, but there are quite a few shifts in detail and emphasis. Most of the changes seem to stem from the idea of resetting the tale from the midwest to Las Vegas, which was a promising concept--a city that truly never sleeps--but because (for budget reasons, no doubt) the movie was actually shot in New Mexico, Vegas as a physical location plays virtually no part in the picture. This time, Jerry (Farrell) isn't an old-world Dracula type like Sarandon; he's a contemporary douchebag who supposedly works construction on the strip, wearing tight t-shirts--Charley's mom (Collette) and even his girlfriend (Poots) can't help themselves from leering at him. Peter Vincent (Tennant) is now the star of a campy, but higher-scale, horror-themed stage show at the Hard Rock Hotel. Meanwhile, Charley (Yelchin) is now more of a post-nerd guy who, for reasons even the movie doesn't understand, has a hot, compassionate girlfriend, and he spends the first part of the movie not believing the vampire story at all, despite the efforts of his former pal Ed (Christopher Mintz-Plasse) to convince him.

You can see how all of this may have pitched well: in these Jersey Shore days, the idea of a douchebag vampire could have been fun, and Charley, dumping his own friend for the sake of popularity and hovering on the edge of becoming a douche himself, could have been a complex match for Jerry. In the movie, though, with its imperatives of getting to the 3D bloodshed, very little of this is developed. Yelchin basically does his best Shia LaBeouf as Charley, and the movie turns into Suburbia with fangs. Farrell has some really good moments as Jerry--he's scary and funny as he preens in front of Collette and Poots, and when he hovers just outside Jerry's doorway, frustrated not to be invited in--but the script betrays him by turning Jerry into a crazy killing machine much too early on. Tennant livens things up as Peter Vincent (he's basically doing Russell Brand in Get Him to the Greek), although even he can't do much with an extraordinarily clumsy chunk of exposition late in the story that's supposed to explain why he's helping Charley. Poots, who's given very interesting performances in indie movies like Cracks and Solitary Man, is here just "the girl." And although Collette grounds her mom character nicely, it's hard to see what she's doing in the movie, other than as a favor to Gillepsie.

The movie is badly constructed even as a genre piece. Apart from the sloppy vampire mythology, which introduces a late gadget into the story just to ensure a happy ending, all the set-piece action sequences go on forever, and at 106 minutes, the picture feels 15 minutes too long. Gillespie has no particular feel for atmosphere or pace beyond the obvious quiet-quiet-quiet-BANG of horror cliches, and the picture is never at all scary. There's nothing notable about the picture technically, either: vampire movies aren't really ideal for 3D, since by definition, they tend to take place in the dark and the dim 3D image makes things even murkier; it's hard to tell whether Javier Aguirresarobe's photography ever had any distinction.

In an era where we're inundated with vampire stories, a new entry in the genre really has to take some chances to make a mark. (And if it does, as with last year's Let Me In, the audience may reject it.) Fright Night sounded like it might be one of those, but it's just another late-summer grab for ticket sales, part of the August/September low-budget horror fest. Next week's entry: Don't Be Afraid of the Dark.

Read User's Comments(0)

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 19-21

11:49 PM | Labels: boxoffice, Conan barbarian, film, fright night, help, movies, Numbers, one day, Predictions, spy kids, Weekend

Now that we are in mid-August, let the true dumping of movies begin! Sure they can be called summer movies, but films the next few weeks have little hope of turning in impressive box office results. The Help (a truly rare August hit) should continue at #1 with a very small second weekend decline, while Conan the Barbarian, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World and Fright Night duke it out with average (at best) returns.

Opening at more than 2,900 theaters in North America by Lionsgate, Conan the Barbarian should average a slightly above par $5,700 per theater (for $16.5 million for Friday-Sunday). With a small number of reviews posted at RottenTomatoes so far, critical opinion is mixed (52% positive). This 3D entry should be on track for around $50 million total in North America, more proof that 3D is not the guarantee for success.

At about 3,000 theaters, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World from Weinstein/Dimension should average $4,850 (for $14.5 million this weekend). No reviews yet for this movie, which has not been made available for critics (who would likely dump all over it). This attempt at a franchise resuscitation is probably headed for around $60 million domestically.

Opening at 2,900 theaters from DreamWorks and distributed by Disney, Fright Night should average $4,900 from Friday-Sunday (for a $14 million opening weekend). Early reviews have been positive at RottenTomatoes (69% positive, which is near unanimity for a horror film).  This movie is most likely on track for $40 million in North America.

Finally, opening at about 1,600 theaters, One Day from Focus/Universal should average a below average $3,700 per theater (for a meager $6 million opening weekend). (The average wide-release film averages $4,900 per theater in its opening weekend). Reviews have been brutal so far at RottenTomatoes (25% positive in the early returns). One Day is probably headed for a domestic total of $14 million, if that.

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening Domestic
August 19-21                     Positive Weekend   Total*

Conan the Barbarian      LG  R      52%      $ 16.5    $ 50
Spy Kids: All Time     Wein  PG     n/a      $ 14.5    $ 60
Fright Night         DW/Dis R      69%      $ 14.0    $ 40
One Day               Focus PG13   25%      $ 6.0    $ 14

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Help should remain #1 with an amazing 22% decline thanks to strong word-of-mouth among its older demographic, who do not rush out to movies the first weekend. This film will play for some time. Final Destination 5 will have a typical decline for a horror sequel (54%), while Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Smurfs continue to cruise nicely with declines around 40%.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This Domestic
August 19-21                    vs wknd 1 Weekend   Total*

The Help            DW/Dis        -22%      $20      $100
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -43%      $16      $175
The Smurfs            Sony        -37%      $ 9      $140
Final Destination 5     WB        -54%      $ 8.5     $ 45
30 Minutes or Less   Sony        -47%      $ 7      $ 40
Crazy, Stupid, Love.    WB        -38%      $ 4.5     $ 80
Harry Potter Deathly 2  WB        -37%      $ 4.5     $370

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $100 million total, ranking 39th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $110 million, and the year before was $112 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $125 million, up about 13% from this weekend last year. This would be the sixth up weekend in a row.

This Weekend Last Two Years

8.20.10

Vampires Suck FOX PG13 Ken Jeong

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $13 Actual: $12

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $35 Actual: $37

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $44

Piranha 3D WEINS R Richard Dreyfuss Elizabeth Shue

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $10

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $29 Actual: $25

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $57

Nanny McPhee Returns UNI PG Emma Thompson Maggie Gyllenhaal

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $8

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33 Actual: $29

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $64

Lottery Ticket WB PG13 Bow Wow Brandon T Jackson

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9 Actual: $11

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $26 Actual: $25

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

The Switch MIR PG13 Jason Bateman Jennifer Aniston

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $6 Actual: $8

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $28 Actual: $28

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $22

8.21.09

Inglourious Basterds WEINS R Brad Pitt Diane Kruger

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $28 Actual: $38

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $127 Actual: $121

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $193

Shorts WB PG Jon Cryer William H Macy

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $6

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $24 Actual: $21

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $5

Post Grad FOX PG13 Alexis Bledel Michael Keaton

Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4 Actual: $3

Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $4 Actual: $6

International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

Read User's Comments(0)

THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Mid-Week Update

3:18 PM | Labels: 30 minutes, August, boxoffice, conan, final destination, fright night, glee, help, one day, spy kids, The Bijou

With Monday and Tuesday numbers in, here are some notes about how the new arrivals are holding up:

THE HELP continues its impressive run: its $8.3M on Monday-Tuesday represents a very robust 32% of its weekend total. All signs continue to point to a strong second weekend hold, especially since early reviews for its direct competitor ONE DAY are fairly disastrous, running at only 28% positive on RottenTomatoes.

FINAL DESTINATION 5, on the other hand, has weekday numbers of $3.9M, a measly 22% of its $18M weekend. Not unusually for its genre, it should flame out quickly--which would potentially leave the way clear for Dreamworks/Disney's FRIGHT NIGHT, if anyone cared that that movie exists. (The studio has scheduled "Sneak Peek" screenings of the latter film around 9PM Thursday night, in an effort to build word of mouth for those who can't be roused for a midnight show.)

30 MINUTES OR LESS is holding better in a percentage sense, with $3.7M equaling 28% of its weekend--but at those numbers, even a good hold won't mean much. Its main competition this weekend is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, a movie which while only at 44% on RottenTomatoes, doesn't care much about its reviews.

In the same boat as 30 Minutes only more so (less so?) is GLEE 3D, whose $1.6M is 27% of its weekend as it heads to oblivion. Supplanting it in the hearts of young viewers this weekend will be SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, billed as being in "4D" because it features odors as well as objects protruding from the screen. The Weinstein Company seems to have little interest in showing this one to critics.

Read User's Comments(0)

THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 13

1:48 PM | Labels: 30 minutes, August, boxoffice, boxoffice footnotes, conan, final destination, fright night, one day, rise of the planet of the apes, spy kids, The Bijou, the help

Let's take a look at just how remarkably THE HELP is performing so far.

The most obvious points of comparison are the literary-sourced, female-skewing hits of the last 2 Augusts: Julie & Julia in 2009, and last year's Eat Pray Love. Julia had a $20M opening that led to a $94M domestic gross; Eat was a little more front-loaded, with a $23M start on its way to an $80M total. The Help will beat Julia's opening and has a fair chance of surpassing both of them--but only Help came to Friday with $10M already in the bank thanks to its Wednesday opening, which doesn't seem to have dampened its weekend at all. Also, while both Julia and Eat were escapist entertainments, with easily promotable subjects like gourmet food and fabulous foreign locations (along with stars like Meryl Streep, Amy Adams and Julia Roberts), The Help is a serious period piece about the Civil Rights era that features Emma Stone only as part of an ensemble of mostly African-American actresses. (These factors, however, may be more serious hindrances overseas, where Help is more likely to echo Julia's $35M boxoffice than Eat's lofty $124M.) Oh, and Help's budget is $25M, far below Julia's $40M and Eat's $60M.

DreamWorks seems to have captured the audience that Lionsgate was hoping to get last year with Tyler Perry's For Colored Girls: a combination of African-American and arthouse crowds. It's very hard to tell how this will play out over time, as the African-American audience is notoriously front-loaded (as has been the case with all of Perry's movies), while arthouses are exactly the opposite. In any case, The Help faces little direct competition over the next several weeks: just One Day next Friday (which Focus has been oddly shy about marketing), Sarah Jessica Parker's I Don't Know How She Does It on September 16, and then on a more general prestige-movie level, Moneyball the following week.

Along with the immediate financial return, the success of The Help should help give it credence in the march to year-end awards--although this gets complicated. DreamWorks has a little movie called War Horse on its way from studio patriarch Steven Spielberg, and that film will almost certainly get the lion's share of the Best Picture push. However, War Horse is less likely to be in contention for performance awards, so the way is clear for DreamWorks to push Help's cast for Best Actress and Supporting Actress. The question, though, will be: who in which category? This is especially important for Viola Davis, who would probably be the early frontrunner for Supporting Actress right now, but arguably is as much the lead in Help as Emma Stone--however, if Davis chooses to campaign for Actress, she'll face competition like Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.

Of course, these are high-class problems to have.

The rest of the Friday numbers are far less interesting. RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES had a perfectly decent hold, but one that feels a little soft given its supposedly excellent word of mouth. The flop of 30 MINUTES OR LESS demonstrates that Jesse Eisenberg and Aziz Ansari aren't yet boxoffice draws, and that (especially combined with Your Highness earlier this year) Danny McBride is at best a cult figure who puts off as many people as he attracts. FINAL DESTINATION 5 will probably top out at about $50M, but the big question is how it will do overseas, where the last chapter in the franchise almost doubled its US gross. And GLEE 3D won't make any profit (unless it scores a hit on homevideo), but serves as an infomercial for the TV series mothership.

A quiet week for limited releases, with the documentary SENNA pulling in the only opening of any note, a very solid $30-35K in each of its 2 theatres.

When they talk about the dog days of summer, next weekend is what they mean. Along with the previously mentioned and curiously unpublicized ONE DAY (starring Anne Hathaway, based on a high-quality, best-selling novel--where's the buzz?), we get not one, not two, but three 3D reboots of pictures that weren't all that good the first time: CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS. A good weekend to go to the beach, or catch up on your DVR queue.

Read User's Comments(0)

A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: Disney

10:02 AM | Labels: blockbuster, boxoffice, cars 2, disney, fright night, pirates 4, summer, the help, winnie the pooh

With a summer movie season bracketed by the first weekend in May on one end, and Labor Day on the other, we've reached the midpoint of 2011's array of blockbusters, and for the next week, here at SHOWBUZZDAILY, we'll be providing our judgments on how the studios are doing. US Grosses are as of July 4, 2011; Overseas Grosses are as of July 3,2011.

Today; The Mouse House

MOVIES IN RELEASE

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES

US Release: May 20

US Gross: $234,200,000

Overseas Gross: $774,000,000

Worldwide Total: $1,008,000,000

CARS 2

US Release: June 24

US Gross: $123,002,000

Overseas Gross: $82,200,000

Worldwide Total: $205,202,000

THE MONEY

You can't argue with a billion dollars; Pirates 4 is the 8th biggest worldwide moneymaker of all time, and it could catch up to Pirates 2 in 4th place, just $58M ahead. That would leave it behind only Avatar, Titanic and the last Lord of the Rings on the all-time list. These massive numbers disguise the fact that Pirates 4 has the lowest US boxoffice total of the Top 19 worldwide--amazingly, only 23 cents of every dollar it's earned has come from the US, and it's by far the least successful of its franchise in the domestic market. A dollar is a dollar, even if it has to be converted to get there, and Disney will take the money wherever it's earned. Since future installments of the series will certainly be coming (at least as long as Johnny Depp wants to don that eyeliner), it'll be interesting to see if Disney tries to boost the US popularity of the series through casting and locations, or whether Pirates embraces its foreign identity and treats the US as a large but not crucially important territory.

The news is less ambiguous for Cars 2 Domestically, it's headed for the 2d lowest Pixar gross ever, and it's dented the Pixar brand critically (see below). The international view is a little incomplete ($82 million is a good first weekend in a limited number of territories and we expect this number to jump substantially next week). We have a ballpark estimate of $275 million total overseas, assuming an international multiple similar to recent Pixar releases over a domestic total as measured by the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. As with many high profile Hollywood movies, the international gusher of money can mitigate weakness on the homefront.

THE QUALITY

In 2 words: Not Good.

Pirates 4 was perhaps less disastrous than its immediate predecessor, but it's a dull and unexciting adventure that feels like it was made with everyone's eye on their paychecks. Those paychecks have plenty of zeroes, so it's not clear if anyone cares, but it'd be nice to think that the slack writing, acting and direction will eventually catch up with the series.

Cars 2 isn't just the worst Pixar movie to date, it's the first bad Pixar movie ever, lazily plotted and mostly unfunny. The bulletproof reputation that kept Pixar on a pedestal above DreamWorks and any other animation pretenders has been breached, and the next Pixar movie (the medieval Scottish adventure Brave in June 2012) will be scrutinized--by audience and critics--with a skeptical eye that the studio has never experienced before. The Disney policy of encouraging sequels and franchises (discussed in this NY Times article) may have to be balanced against the value of the studio's most prestigious and profitable brand.

STILL TO COME

WINNIE THE POOH - July 15: Pure counterprogramming to the Harry Potter avalanche that day, aimed at kids too young for the increasing darkness at Hogwarts. Modestly budgeted and marketed.

THE HELP - August 12: Notable as the first "serious" release from Disney's new DreamWorks division (I Am Number Four was its first nonserious release). It's too early to discuss The Help in any depth, but it's a worthy movie with a great cast, based on a bestseller, that seems a bit out of place in its mid-August slot; normally a picture like this, hoping to get some awards attention for the actresses at least, would be opening a month or so later.

FRIGHT NIGHT - August 19: More DreamWorks, this one a low-budget horror comedy that'll be hoping to make a few bucks before summer ends. The trailer looks promising, but it opens against the new Conan the Barbarian, and the following week it has to face the latest Final Destination kill-fest, so it runs the risk of being squeezed out.

MIDSUMMER GRADES:

THE MONEY: B. A summer whose only major releases are shaky entries in preexisting franchises, with the other titles (the first of the company's new regime under Rich Ross) as virtual throwaways, builds nothing for the future--and the mismanagement of the Pixar brand is worrisome.

THE QUALITY: C+. Two mediocre movies don't make for a good season, and "Won't Make You Actively Suffer!" isn't much of a summer slogan.

Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

Read User's Comments(0)

Movie Box Review

About

Blogger templates

Blogger news

Blogroll

Archives

Categories

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes August 27 - Be Afraid of the Boxoffice

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 19-21 Weekend Winners and Weepers

THE BIJOU EARLY WEEKEND: FRIGHT BOXOFFICE

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 20

FRIDAY AUGUST 19 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

THE BIJOU EARLY RETURNS - UPDATED: BOXOFFICE THE BARBARIAN

THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Fright Night"

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 19-21

THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Mid-Week Update

THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 13

A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: Disney