Movie Box Review

Based on Saturday numbers, the weekend is coming in a bit stronger than projected yesterday but still lagging behind the same weekend average for the last four years.  The top 12 films should total $104.5 million for the weekend, down 3% from the last few years. 

The relatively small size of this decline indicates the "slump" is more in a holding pattern than back in full force (as it looked yesterday).  However, the box office is going to need to start to show some consistent increases to erase the severe declines in the first six weeks of the year.

Limitless (Relativity) is now looking like a somewhat stronger #1 with $19.0 million and headed for a domestic ultimate of $59 million (63rd percentile).  Lincoln Lawyer (Lionsgate) should open at #4 with $13.4 million, on track for $46 million (56th percentile).  Paul (Universal) should follow at a close #5 with $13.2 million, headed for $43 million (56th percentile).

Holdovers                   This Weekend    Domestic Ultimate
Rango (Paramount)           #2 -32% $15.3   $138 (88th %ile) 
Battle: Los Angeles (Sony)  #3 -59% $14.6   $91  (77th %ile) 
Red Riding Hood (WB)        #6 -48% $7.25   $39  (49th %ile)
The Adjustment Bureau (Uni) #7 -49% $5.9    $67  (69th %ile)
Mars Needs Moms (Disney)    #8 -23% $5.3    $28  (35th %ile)

Battle: Los Angeles fell to a very close #2 with $2.02 million Thursday, declining a steep 14% from Wednesday (well below the average 3.5% increase for March films in day seven).  Red Riding Hood dropped 10% to $1.01 million, staying in the #3 position.  Mars Needs Moms fell 6% to $0.72 million, holding the #5 spot.