SHOWBUZZDAILY @ SUNDANCE REVIEW: "Smashed"
WEEKEND ACTUALS: Lincoln Lawyer Bumps Up from Studio Projections
All three movies opening this weekend exceeded the ShowbuzzDaily Forecasts but the rank order was roughly as predicted (Liongate's Lincoln Lawyer moved into a virtual tie with Universal's Paul). Volume for the three openers was about $6 million more than predicted (15% higher), which moved the weekend from a slump-worthy 11% decline to a more normal 3% decline from the four-year average for the comparable weekend. The actual numbers for Relativity's Limitless and Paul ended up being slightly below studio estimates (which are based on projections for Sunday and actuals for Friday and Saturday), while Lincoln Lawyer came in significantly above the studio estimate Sunday.
Showbuzz Studio Weekend
Forecast Estimate Actual
Limitless (LG) $15 $19.0 $18.9
Paul (UNI) $13 $13.7 $13.0
Lincoln Lawyer (Rel) $11 $12.5 $13.2
Opener Total $39 $44.7 $45.1
Rango (Paramount) ended up with $15.1 million this weekend (hitting the $15 million forecast), while Battle: Los Angeles (Sony) under-performed with $14.5 million and a 59% decline (well below the $17 million forecast and 50% decline).
Also, in very limited release (five theaters), Win Win averaged $30,072 per location for a total of $150,362.
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES: A Little Better Than Expected
Based on Saturday numbers, the weekend is coming in a bit stronger than projected yesterday but still lagging behind the same weekend average for the last four years. The top 12 films should total $104.5 million for the weekend, down 3% from the last few years.
The relatively small size of this decline indicates the "slump" is more in a holding pattern than back in full force (as it looked yesterday). However, the box office is going to need to start to show some consistent increases to erase the severe declines in the first six weeks of the year.
Limitless (Relativity) is now looking like a somewhat stronger #1 with $19.0 million and headed for a domestic ultimate of $59 million (63rd percentile). Lincoln Lawyer (Lionsgate) should open at #4 with $13.4 million, on track for $46 million (56th percentile). Paul (Universal) should follow at a close #5 with $13.2 million, headed for $43 million (56th percentile).
Holdovers This Weekend Domestic Ultimate
Rango (Paramount) #2 -32% $15.3 $138 (88th %ile)
Battle: Los Angeles (Sony) #3 -59% $14.6 $91 (77th %ile)
Red Riding Hood (WB) #6 -48% $7.25 $39 (49th %ile)
The Adjustment Bureau (Uni) #7 -49% $5.9 $67 (69th %ile)
Mars Needs Moms (Disney) #8 -23% $5.3 $28 (35th %ile)





