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Showing posts with label Limitless. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Limitless. Show all posts

Box Office Footnotes

Warners is claiming that Sucker Punch cost around $80M, which given the scale of the film suggests either admirable cost-effectiveness or a lowball number--in any case, word of mouth is likely to be terrible (see my review, not to mention that its overall Rotten Tomatoes number is at 20%), so it's doubtful to get past red ink.

In Wimpy Kid 2, Fox has a modestly-budgeted franchise that should be able to crank out sequels for the next several years.

Lack of any new adult-skewing product helped Limitless (review) and Lincoln Lawyer (review) to solid holds.

In limited debuts, Miral is riding its controversy to around $17.5K in each of 4 theatres (review); Potiche
should do about $10K in each of 8 theatres (review); Peep World is headed for around $2K in each of 3 theatres (review); and White Irish Drinkers may do around $4K in each of 6 theatres. Meanwhile, Jane Eyre expanded to a very nice $10K or so in each of 90 theatres, and Win Win likewise should get to around $17.5K in each of 23 theatres (review). 

Next week doesn't bring much in the way of major openings: the thriller Source Code (Summit) with Jake Gyllenhaal, the Easter-timed animated Hop (Universal) with the voice of Russell Brand (preceding Brand's live-action Arthur by 1 week), and the haunted house thrill ride Insidious (FilmDistrict).  Also, for curiosity Weinstein Company will put its pre-DVD PG-13 version of The King's Speech into 1000 theatres.  Limited releases include the Foreign-Language Oscar winner In A Better World (Sony Classics) and the very violent comic-book parody Super (IFC).

--Mitch Salem
 

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WEEKEND ACTUALS: Lincoln Lawyer Bumps Up from Studio Projections

All three movies opening this weekend exceeded the ShowbuzzDaily Forecasts but the rank order was roughly as predicted (Liongate's Lincoln Lawyer moved into a virtual tie with Universal's Paul).  Volume for the three openers was about $6 million more than predicted (15% higher), which moved the weekend from a slump-worthy 11% decline to a more normal 3% decline from the four-year average for the comparable weekend.  The actual numbers for Relativity's Limitless and Paul ended up being slightly below studio estimates (which are based on projections for Sunday and actuals for Friday and Saturday), while Lincoln Lawyer came in significantly above the studio estimate Sunday. 


                     Showbuzz      Studio         Weekend
                     Forecast     Estimate         Actual
Limitless (LG)         $15          $19.0          $18.9
Paul (UNI)             $13          $13.7          $13.0
Lincoln Lawyer (Rel)   $11          $12.5          $13.2
Opener Total           $39          $44.7          $45.1

Rango (Paramount) ended up with $15.1 million this weekend (hitting the $15 million forecast), while Battle: Los Angeles (Sony) under-performed with $14.5 million and a 59% decline (well below the $17 million forecast and 50% decline). 

Also, in very limited release (five theaters), Win Win averaged $30,072 per location for a total of $150,362.


--Mitch Metcalf

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES: A Little Better Than Expected

Based on Saturday numbers, the weekend is coming in a bit stronger than projected yesterday but still lagging behind the same weekend average for the last four years.  The top 12 films should total $104.5 million for the weekend, down 3% from the last few years. 

The relatively small size of this decline indicates the "slump" is more in a holding pattern than back in full force (as it looked yesterday).  However, the box office is going to need to start to show some consistent increases to erase the severe declines in the first six weeks of the year.

Limitless (Relativity) is now looking like a somewhat stronger #1 with $19.0 million and headed for a domestic ultimate of $59 million (63rd percentile).  Lincoln Lawyer (Lionsgate) should open at #4 with $13.4 million, on track for $46 million (56th percentile).  Paul (Universal) should follow at a close #5 with $13.2 million, headed for $43 million (56th percentile).

Holdovers                   This Weekend    Domestic Ultimate
Rango (Paramount)           #2 -32% $15.3   $138 (88th %ile) 
Battle: Los Angeles (Sony)  #3 -59% $14.6   $91  (77th %ile) 
Red Riding Hood (WB)        #6 -48% $7.25   $39  (49th %ile)
The Adjustment Bureau (Uni) #7 -49% $5.9    $67  (69th %ile)
Mars Needs Moms (Disney)    #8 -23% $5.3    $28  (35th %ile)

--Mitch Metcalf

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