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Showing posts with label MR POPPER. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MR POPPER. Show all posts

A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: 20th Century Fox


With a summer movie season bracketed by the first weekend in May on one end, and Labor Day on the other, we've reached the midpoint of 2011's array of blockbusters, and for the next week, here at SHOWBUZZDAILY, we'll be providing our judgments on how the studios are doing.  US Grosses are as of July 4, 2011; Overseas Grosses are as of July 3,2011.

Today:  Murdoch Empire, Less Scary Division



MOVIES IN RELEASE

THE TREE OF LIFE (Fox Searchlight)
US Release:  May 27
US Gross:  $8,084,606
Overseas Gross:  n/a (Searchlight only controls some territories)
Worldwide Total: n/a

X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS
US Release:  June 3
US Gross:  $140,202,185
Overseas Gross:  $196,198,895
Worldwide Total:$336,401,080

MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS
US Release:  June 17
US Gross:  $53,800,091
Overseas Gross:  $11,100,000
Worldwide Total: $64,900,091

THE ART OF GETTING BY (Fox Searchlight)
US Release:  June 17
US Gross:  $1,427,431
Overseas Gross:  n/a
Worldwide Total::  n/a

MONTE CARLO
US Release:  July 1
US Gross:  $11,162,897
Overseas Gross:  $1,300,000
Worldwide Total: $12,462,897

THE MONEY
 
With one big picture yet to open, so far Fox is having an underwhelming summer on the financial side.  Its only tentpole thus far was X MEN:  FIRST CLASS, and that will be the lowest grossing domestically of the franchise's history; even though it will do better internationally (probably 2d for the series behind X-Men 3), that won't be enough to lift it worldwide above any of the others, except the original film from 11 years ago.  It should still be profitable, but won't reap the kind of revenues that a studio seeks in its biggest summer release.

The news is worse after that.  Even if MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS cost the $60M Fox claims, it will need a much more solid performance overseas than it had in the US in order to hit breakeven.  MONTE CARLO was modestly budgeted, but isn't likely to even recoup its marketing costs.

On the Fox Searchlight limited release side, the jury is still out in THE TREE OF LIFE, which has done well in only around 200 theatres but has heftier promotional costs than the typical art movie and needs to expand outside big cities.  THE ART OF GETTING BY was a complete flop.

THE QUALITY

Fox can console itself, at least somewhat, with the critical praise some of its releases have earned.  With an 87% favorable rating on Rotten Tomatoes, X Men is behind only Bridesmaids and Midnight In Paris as the best reviewed picture of the summer.  The very aspects of the film that made it dramatically exciting--the 1960s Cuban Missile Crisis setting, the cast chosen for genuine talent more than familiarity--probably limited its audience.

Tree Of Life has drawn more polarized response--some adore it, others think it's the cinematic equivalent of the emperor's new clothes--but it's still clearly one of the notable pictures of the year.

Mr Popper, Monte Carlo and Art Of Getting By, on the other hand, collectively barely registered a pulse. 

STILL TO COME

SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN (Fox Searchlight) - July 15:  A subtitled limited release from the director of The Joy Luck Club that will probably never go beyond a small number of theatres.

ANOTHER EARTH (Fox Searchlight) - July 22: This Sundance pickup has a very small indie-movie budget, but with its powerful central performances, universal emotions and a distinctive low-tech scifi plot, it has a shot to break out and reach a more general audience. 

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES - August 5:   Fox's last shot for a big summer hit.  The trailer is promising (those CG intelligent apes are almost too convincing), and if Cowboys & Aliens doesn't hit big the week before, Apes will have the entire month of August without any big-budget action competition.  

MIDSUMMER GRADES:

THE MONEY:  C+, X-Men did not deliver what it needed to and the rest barely registered -- if Apes hits, they can earn a B.

THE QUALITY:  B-, with X-Men and Malick making up for the dross of the rest.

Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

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Box Office Footnotes - June 25

CARS 2 overperformed a bit, although $75M isn't much higher than the original Cars opening ($60M) plus 3D ticket prices.  It should hold well over the holiday weekend (the talking vehicles in Transformers skew a little older), but the following week it'll face Paul Blart and his chatty animals in ZOOKEEPER, and that may be more of a challenge.

BAD TEACHER turned out to be a brilliant piece of counterprogramming against the squeaky-clean Cars 2. Not only is it headed for 50% more than Diaz's last comedy opening (What Happens In Vegas), it should make considerably more than the $26M earned in the first 5 days by Knight and Day, which also featured a guy named Cruise.  Its C+ Cinemascore is nothing to brag about; nevertheless, with the giant success of this and Bridesmaids, expect a lot of actresses to be saying dirty words on screen over the next couple of years.  

GREEN LANTERN's collapse makes it another failure for Warners and DC Comics to develop a non-Christopher Nolan franchise.  The pressure that was already on Zack Snyder and his Superman movie The Man Of Steel just got a lot heavier.

MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS held quite nicely, especially in the face of Cars 2.  It's still not going to be a big moneymaker, but it won't embarrass anyone.

While MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continued to romp its way to being a blockbuster in Woody Allen terms, TREE OF LIFE almost doubled its theatre count (still only at 215) and took a hit on its per-theatre number to around $6500;  Beginners had similar results.  A BETTER LIFE, which will be a major marketing challenge for Summit, is headed for an OK $16K in each of only 4 art theatres, while the documentary CONAN O'BRIEN CAN'T STOP will find its audience (if at all) on the home screen, with just $4K per theatre in 40.   

Next weekend will be all TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON.  Or "weekend," since Paramount is opening the movie at 9PM Tuesday night in order to stretch its holiday to 6 1/2 days.  (The last Transformers, which opened on Wednesday--meaning Tuesday midnight--the week before July 4th, racked up $215M in its first 6 days, on its way to a $402M domestic total.)  Universal and Fox will try to counterprogram with soft romantic comedies, respectively the genial LARRY CROWNE aimed at older audiences, and MONTE CARLO for younger girls.

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FRIDAY JUNE 17 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

Green Lantern and Mr Popper's Penguins both come in at forecast, while weekend is down 23% from last year.


Green Lantern opened with $21.4 million on Friday, and it looks like the Ryan Reynolds film will gross $56 million from Friday-Sunday.  The film is headed for $156 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. See Mitch Salem's review of Green Lantern.

Serving the family audience, Mr Popper's Penguins opened with $6.4 million on Friday, on its way to about $18 million from Friday-Sunday.  The film is headed for $63 million total in North America. See Mitch Salem's review of Mr Popper's Penguins

Super 8 should drop 45% (a little better than average), and the film has been upgraded to $126 million.  X-Men: First Class is now headed for $155 million.  Hangover Part II has been bumped back up to $260 million, while Kung Fu Panda 2 is still headed for $173 million.  Bridesmaids has been upgraded yet again to $168 million. 


Click "Read more" to see the complete box office chart.


June 17-19, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Green Lantern (WB)       [$55  ]    $56.2   $21.4     $156
Super 8 (Par)            [$20  ]    $19.6   $ 5.9     $126+
Mr Popper's Penguins Fox [$18  ]    $17.9   $ 6.4     $ 63
X-Men: First Class (Fox) [$12  ]    $11.2   $ 3.4     $155
Kung Fu Panda 2 (Par/DW) [$11  ]    $ 8.9   $ 2.5     $173
Hangover Part II (WB)    [$10  ]    $10.2   $ 3.2     $260
Bridesmaids (Uni)        [$ 7.5]    $ 7.6   $ 2.3     $168++
Pirates Caribbean 4
(Dis)[$ 6.5]    $ 6.4   $ 1.8     $240

Midnight in Paris (Sony) [$ 4.5]    $ 5.4   $ 1.4     $ 42+
Judy Moody Bummer (Rel)  [ n/a ]    $ 2.6   $ 0.8     $ 14

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases

The Art of Getting By (Fox Searchlight) opened at 610 theaters and will average a very poor $1,480 per theater this weekend (for a total $903,000).  In its fourth week, The Tree of Life (also Fox Searchlight) will average another strong $10,185 per theater at 114 theaters, bringing its total to $3.9 million.     


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $148 million total, down 23% from the same calendar weekend last year.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #24

     Volume
     (millions)
2011  $148  (-1
% vs 2007-10 average; -23% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $150 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $191  Toy Story 3 $110, Jonah Hex $5.5

2009  $145  The Proposal $34, Year One $20
2008  $138  Get Smart $39, The Love Guru $14
2007  $125  Evan Almighty $31, 1408 $21


Next Weekend

Opening next week are Cars 2 from Disney and Bad Teacher from Sony.  Those movies will be compared to Grown Ups ($40.5 million opening weekend) and Knight & Day ($20 million)

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

And Happy Father's Day to all the dads. 

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