Movie Box Review

Today:  PlayStation Central

US Release:  May 13

US Gross:  $29,136,626

Overseas Gross:  $47,367,388

Worldwide Total:  $76,504,014

US Release:  June 24

US Gross:  $65,211,014

Worldwide Total: $93,811,014

 

Sony is having a remarkably quiet summer, mostly letting its lower-budget divisions do the talking. (Possibly the studio is conserving its strength for next year, when it'll have 2 of the biggest mega-busters of the season:  Men In Black 3 and the Spiderman reboot.)  "Lower-budget," of course is a relative term, and Screen Gems' PRIEST cost $60M, which means more like $125M with global marketing.  At that price, a worldwide gross of $76M is bad news.

BAD TEACHER is a more successful example of keeping to a budget.  The studio says the film was produced for only $19M (Cameron Diaz took just $1M upfront), and even with worldwide marketing costs and the traditional softness of American comedies overseas, $94M in the bank with plenty of revenue still to come should make for comfortable profits.

While Sony Pictures Classics is run as a completely separate division within the company, and has only limited territorial rights to Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, the film is a tremendous hit on its smaller terms, with $35M earned in the US and a relatively puny marketing budget (hardly any TV ads).  It's the biggest specialty release anyone's had since the holiday/Oscar season bonanza.

The studio has run the gamut in its limited number of releases this summer.  Priest was a terrible movie even within its grubby genre, and richly deserved its boxoffice fate.  Bad Teacher is no classic, but it's amusing and likable.  Midnight In Paris may be the best picture released during the first half of 2011.

STILL TO COME

ZOOKEEPER - July 8: A co-production with MGM (Sony is in business with the still-moribund lion through its James Bond deal, which gave MGM interests in several other high-profile Sony releases).  Zookeeper has the good fortune this week of hitting the third weekend of Cars 2, a much weaker Pixar release than it could have anticipated, which could boost its weekend receipts.

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS - July 22: Another Screen Gems release, this is the better version of No Strings Attached, but coming along second and without the Black Swan-driven star power of Natalie Portman--and with the superior Crazy, Stupid, Love opening a week later--it may not have much impact.

THE SMURFS - July 29:  Counterprogramming to Cowboys & Aliens on the one hand, and Crazy, Stupid, Love on the other, it's not likely to hit beyond its kiddie target audience. 

30 MINUTES OR LESS - August 12:  More low-budget R-rated comedy, although this one has a buzzy cast (Jesse Eisenberg, Aziz Ansari, Danny McBride).  It'll have to hope that The Change-Up, the prior week's comedy with Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman, doesn't have any staying power, which may not be a bad bet. 

COLOMBIANA - August 26:  Coming from yet another low-budget division (TriStar), this is a negative pick-up from the Luc Besson action factory, with Zoe Saldana as the assassin heroine.  This isn't the slot for a picture with legs, but Jason Statham has made a cottage industry out of some quick late-summer dollars here in movies like Crank, Transporter 2, War and Death Race, and since his new Killer Elite doesn't open until Sept 23, there's a brief window for Sony to take those revenues.

THE MONEY:  C, any gains by Bad Teacher are erased by Priest, and Sony doesn't even feel like it is playing in the big studio league.

THE QUALITY:  B-, but they're lucky Woody Allen was on the team.

Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON is reporting (pending actual numbers tomorrow) a 4-day weekend gross of $116.7M, giving it a total of $181.1M since opening Tuesday evening.  That puts it around 10% ahead of the original Transformers and 15% behind Transformers 2.  The original Transformers declined only 47% in its second weekend (the first sequel went down 61%), so if the new film is to keep pace, it'll have to hold up very well over the next week.

LARRY CROWNE and MONTE CARLO continued their sad trajectories, with Larry grossing $15.7M over 4 days and Monte Carlo mustering only $8.8M.

TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON becomes the latest franchise movie to fall short in the US compared to prior chapters of the series, despite an increased 3D ticket price.  (Like others, most notably Pirates 4, it may well make up the shortfall overseas.)  That doesn't make a US gross of $350M anything to complain about, but it will continue to change the studio dynamic of how future franchises are developed and produced.  An acid test of this phenomenon will come in 2 weeks when we get to the final HARRY POTTER, which people have assumed will be the highest grossing of the series because it's the last chapter (and in 3D)--but will that prove true?

Universal can talk all it wants about the budget of LARRY CROWNE being only $30M and its audience being an older crowd that doesn't rush out on opening weekend; the studio paid for a big-time marketing campaign, and that means no profits for anyone (including Hanks and Roberts, who could only have achieved that budget with enormous back-end deals).  The question isn't so much whether Hanks and Roberts are giant stars any longer (they're not), but who steps into their shoes?  There's little sign that Katherine Heigl or Ryan Reynolds, just to name two, can become that level of star.  (Bill Simmons at Grantland wrote a terrific column this week about the current definition of movie stardom--very much recommended.) 

Thinking of people who aren't movie stars:  MONTE CARLO couldn't manage a decent opening even with Selena Gomez, Leighton Meester, Cory Monteith and Katie Cassidy in the cast.  Unlike Larry Crowne, though, this one had a limited marketing campaign, so the red ink shouldn't be so bad.   (Nicole Kidman, who originally developed the movie to star herself and other actresses in her age group, must be wondering why she allowed the picture to become teened and herself relegated to a mere producer.)

CARS 2 is having, by a considerable margin, the worst 2d weekend drop in Pixar history--and that's on a holiday weekend!  Its decline being more severe than the one for BAD TEACHER is a bet even Vegas wouldn't have taken 2 weeks ago.  (By the way, for devotees of Cinemascore:  take a look at the A- Cars 2 scored and the C+ of Bad Teacher and try to rationalize how those grades can mean anything.  For a comparison of the statistical value of Cinemascore versus critic reviews, read Mitch Metcalf's piece on calculating Word of Mouth.) 

BRIDESMAIDS and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continued their almost imperceptible weekend drops, especially Midnight, which now seems certain to become Woody Allen's biggest hit (unadjusted for inflation, which is relevant when you're talking about a 40-year career).  In smaller releases, TREE OF LIFE and  BEGINNERS added a few theatres and held fairly steady; we'll see in the next few weeks how wide Fox Searchlight and Focus think they can go.  The only notable new limited release is the extremely well-reviewed TERRI, from new indie distributor ATO:  it's a tough sell and seems to be headed for an only OK $10K or so in each of 6 theatres.

No action movie wanted to open on July 8 and be sandwiched between the behemoths of Transformers and Harry Potter, so this week we get more counterprogramming:  the R-rated comedy HORRIBLE BOSSES, which has a fun premise but not a lot of star power (other than Jennifer Aniston in a supporting role); and ZOOKEEPER, with the kind of cute talking animals that could deal a deathblow to the floundering Cars 2.  

Mitch Metcalf will doubtless have more to say about this later today, but the weekend's actual boxoffice totals have just been announced, and the surprise is that CARS 2 ended up almost $2M below the number Disney predicted yesterday, $66.1M rather than $68M.  This translates into a Sunday drop that was far heavier than expected (27% instead of 18%), and comes after the film had already suffered a 9% drop on Saturday.  By way of comparison, after Toy Story 3 and Wall-E fell on their first Saturdays, the Sunday drop for each was less than 20%.  What this probably means is word of mouth that's less than great.

The 10% drop for CARS 2 on Saturday is unusual, but by no means unheard of, for a big animated film (Toy Story 3 and Wall-E had similar drops, and they worked out OK).  Any additional slippage on Sunday beyond the 19% Disney is projecting, though, could be cause for concern. 

The similar Saturday decline for Bad Teacher is a little less worrisome, given its genre, but still indicates less than terrific word of mouth.  By way of comparison, Bridesmaids went up 35% on its Day 2.

CARS 2 overperformed a bit, although $75M isn't much higher than the original Cars opening ($60M) plus 3D ticket prices.  It should hold well over the holiday weekend (the talking vehicles in Transformers skew a little older), but the following week it'll face Paul Blart and his chatty animals in ZOOKEEPER, and that may be more of a challenge.

BAD TEACHER turned out to be a brilliant piece of counterprogramming against the squeaky-clean Cars 2. Not only is it headed for 50% more than Diaz's last comedy opening (What Happens In Vegas), it should make considerably more than the $26M earned in the first 5 days by Knight and Day, which also featured a guy named Cruise.  Its C+ Cinemascore is nothing to brag about; nevertheless, with the giant success of this and Bridesmaids, expect a lot of actresses to be saying dirty words on screen over the next couple of years.  

GREEN LANTERN's collapse makes it another failure for Warners and DC Comics to develop a non-Christopher Nolan franchise.  The pressure that was already on Zack Snyder and his Superman movie The Man Of Steel just got a lot heavier.

MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS held quite nicely, especially in the face of Cars 2.  It's still not going to be a big moneymaker, but it won't embarrass anyone.

While MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continued to romp its way to being a blockbuster in Woody Allen terms, TREE OF LIFE almost doubled its theatre count (still only at 215) and took a hit on its per-theatre number to around $6500;  Beginners had similar results.  A BETTER LIFE, which will be a major marketing challenge for Summit, is headed for an OK $16K in each of only 4 art theatres, while the documentary CONAN O'BRIEN CAN'T STOP will find its audience (if at all) on the home screen, with just $4K per theatre in 40.   

Next weekend will be all TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON.  Or "weekend," since Paramount is opening the movie at 9PM Tuesday night in order to stretch its holiday to 6 1/2 days.  (The last Transformers, which opened on Wednesday--meaning Tuesday midnight--the week before July 4th, racked up $215M in its first 6 days, on its way to a $402M domestic total.)  Universal and Fox will try to counterprogram with soft romantic comedies, respectively the genial LARRY CROWNE aimed at older audiences, and MONTE CARLO for younger girls.

 Worth A Ticket:  Grade It On A Curve

In 1999, Jake Kasdan directed a project set in high school that starred Jason Segel and featured Dave (Gruber) Allen in its ensemble; it was called Freaks and Geeks, and it has its own special place in pop culture history.   His new BAD TEACHER... not so much.  But not everything has to be a classic, and Bad Teacher, despite its shortcomings, isn't a bad way to spend 90 minutes in the summertime.

Cameron Diaz has been in so many terrible movies (do you even remember her in Green Hornet?  OK, fine--do you even remember Green Hornet?) that she seems delighted to have a role she can chomp down on, and her pleasure is infectious.  She plays Elizabeth Halsey, who when we meet her seems to have accomplished her life plan:  cutting short her desultory high school teaching career by marrying rich.  But in short order, she finds herself dumped (coincidentally, Kasdan's pilot for the fall sitcom New Girl also begins with the sudden end of a seemingly perfect relationship), and forced to go back to teaching.  Depressed and bitter, she mistreats her class with a vengeance, alternating between sneaking swigs from a bottle in her desk drawer and sniping at any students who dare to speak.  Her colleagues, who include Lucy Punch, Segel and Phyllis Smith, are also targets of her sarcastic wrath.  But when a wealthy, idealistic new teacher (Justin Timberlake) arrives, she has a new goal:  steal, embezzle and otherwise cheat her way to the money that will pay for the boob job she's convinced will attract him.

Bad Teacher is neither as funny nor as daring as its red-band trailer suggested--Elizabeth crosses lines, but she doesn't do anything truly awful (she's a kitten compared to Billy Bob Thornton in Bad Santa), and she predictably becomes A Better Human Being before the movie is over.  The movie's got charm, though.  The script by Gene Stupnitsky and Lee Eisenberg (producer/writers on The Office) may lurch between silly plot points, but it's got plenty of tasty dialogue, and Diaz seems to relish every line.  She's an actress who can lift herself up to the level of her material (she was excellent in the terribly underrated In Her Shoes), and she throws herself wholeheartedly into this part.

Even better, the picture has been written and cast in depth.  Lucy Punch all but steals the movie as Elizabeth's nemesis, a goody-goody teacher who's like the grown-up version of Reese Witherspoon in Election; the obvious move would have been to play the character very big, but Punch smartly keeps her under control, steely and increasingly desperate in her contempt for Diaz.  Phyllis Smith does exactly what she does every week on The Office, and it continues to be very funny.  Segel's ultimate place in the storyline isn't hard to figure out, and his easygoing on-screen rapport with Diaz makes it work.  Timberlake, as usual, is happy to go for it in a comic role, but his character is the sketchiest (I kept expecting some kind of twist)--he'll be seen to far better advantage in Friends With Benefits a few weeks from now.  Even in small roles, people like John Michael Higgins,  Molly Shannon, Eric Stonestreet and Thomas Lennon show up to elevate them.  Kasdan gets credit for a lot of this, even if the picture looks like a single-camera sitcom (visually, it's somewhere between the stick-a-camera-in-front-of-people style of Bridesmaids and the genuine stylishness of The Hangover Part II); there's someone interesting to watch in every scene, and the picture has flow and energy. 

Bad Teacher is no masterpiece, and it doesn't have to be.  It's got a strong, charismatic lead, a terrific supporting cast and a few laughs, and that'll do. In a summer where, so far, the big action tentpoles have underperformed and the comedies (Bridesmaids, Hangover 2, Midnight in Paris) have been on the surest road to profit, it earns its place in the graduating class.

Opening at about 3,900 theaters, Cars 2 should average a strong $17,200 per theater (for $67 million this weekend).  Critical reception so far has been mediocre for the Disney-Pixar sequel, 50% positive at RottenTomatoes, suggesting the movie probably will not have strong second and third weekend holds.  For comparison, Cars opened in June 2006 with $60 million, while Wall-E opened in June 2008 with $63 million, Up opened in late May 2009 with $68 million and Toy Story 3 opened in June 2010 with $110 million. 

At about 3,000 theaters, Cameron Diaz's Bad Teacher should average a somewhat above par $8,500 (for $25.5 million this weekend).  Critical reaction to the R-rated comedy has also been mixed (52% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes).



                                               (millions)

Green Lantern should take a hit in its second weekend and fall to third place behind the two openers.  Earlier this week it looked like relatively solid weekday business would propel Green Lantern to a more normal 45-50% decline, but the genre really will dictate the second weekend drop: most of the audience that was excited about this picture rushed out in the first few showings to see it.  The other declines are more moderate. Bridesmaids continues to decline at a slower than normal rate -- after seven weekends it will still be hanging around in the top 10.  In this day and age, that is quite an achievement.    

GREEN LANTERN cost at least as much as Thor ($350-400M with worldwide marketing), and will probably open around 15% lower--and Thor is no blockbuster hit.  Which means that although intensive promos got bodies into theatres, Warners and DC aren't out of the woods.  The picture only scored a B on Cinemascore despite what must have been a ton of comic book movie fans buying tickets, so word of mouth may be painful on this one.

There was a time when the MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS number would have been OK, because DVD sales would have made up for lackluster boxoffice.  But at a cost of at least $200M, and with the DVD market having cratered, it doesn't look good.  Big loser is Jim Carrey, who's now clearly off the A-list.

SUPER 8 had a very solid hold, although considering where it started, it will still only be a modest grosser (and Paramount had to invest in heavy Week 2 marketing expense).   The other holdovers continued pretty much as they had been, with all the franchises heading to series lows, X-MEN declining sharply (so much for good reviews) and BRIDESMAIDS holding like a champion.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is starting to look like an indie juggernaut--it's now certain to be Woody Allen's highest grosser since Hannah and Her Sisters in 1986 (although a comparison of those two would require serious adjustment for ticket price inflation). TREE OF LIFE expanded again to 114 theatres, and it's per-theatre number is starting to falter:  compare its $10K/theatre to the $18K Midnight In Paris made when it hit 154 theatres.  BEGINNERS is keeping its head above water, doubling to 44 theatres and heading for around $8K in each.

THE ART OF GETTING BY is a negligible picture that Fox Searchlight didn't figure out how to market--with a disastrous $1500 per theatre, it'll vanish quickly.

Next weekend is all CARS 2, and the only question is how it will compare to previous Pixar openings.  the $110M Toy Story 3 made is unlikely, so it'll be looking at the $60-70M earned by the original Cars and other recent Pixars like Wall-E and Up.  BAD TEACHER is R-rated counterprogramming that should find a place in 2d; it'll be interesting to see whether direct competition finally slows Bridesmaids down.  Looking slightly farther down the road, Paramount announced that TRANSFORMERS 3 will start its 3D and IMAX engagements on Tuesday June 28, giving the movie a giant "July 4th weekend" that will last a full week.