Two comedies open above $20 million this weekend (one at forecast and one slightly below), while Transformers 3 stays at #1 and its ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final has been upgraded. However, the weekend as a whole is down significantly from this weekend last year.
Horrible Bosses opened almost exactly at forecast ($9.9 million Friday for an expected $26.4 million this weekend versus a $26.5 million forecast). In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Prediction. Horrible Bosses film is headed for $92 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. See Mitch Salem's review of Horrible Bosses.
Zookeeper will miss its forecast. With $7.3 million Friday, the Kevin James movie is expected to reach $20.1 million this weekend, behind the $24 million prediction. The film is headed for a just-OK $63 million total in North America. See Mitch Salem's review of Zookeeper.
Click "Read more" to see the complete box office chart.
Transformers 3 should drop 52%, and the film has been upgraded to $382 million, putting it closer to Revenge of the Fallen ($402 million/ 53.9 million tickets sold) than the first Transformers ($319 million/ 46.4 million tickets sold).
Cars 2 should fall 43% from last weekend, and its domestic gross has been upgraded to $189 million, thanks mostly to decent weekday business.
July 8-10, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
Transformers 3 (Par/DW) [$46.5] $46.8 $14.9 $382+
Horrible Bosses (WB) [$26.5] $26.4 $ 9.9 $ 92
Zookeeper (Sony) [$24 ] $20.1 $ 7.3 $ 63
Cars 2 (Dis) [$14 ] $14.9 $ 4.8 $189+
Bad Teacher (Sony) [$ 8 ] $ 8.9 $ 3.0 $104+
Larry Crowne (Uni) [$ 8 ] $ 6.4 $ 2.0 $ 40
Super 8 (Par) [$ 5 ] $ 4.7 $ 1.5 $136
Monte Carlo (Fox) [$ 3.5] $ 4.1 $ 1.5 $ 25
Green Lantern (WB) [$ 3 ] $ 3.0 $ 1.0 $116
Mr Popper's Penguins Fox [$ 3 ] $ 2.9 $ 1.0 $ 69
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Limited Releases
The Sony Classics documentary Beats, Rhymes & Life will average a great $40,060 this weekend at 4 theaters.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $144 million total, down a severe 22% from the same calendar weekend last year when Despicable Me and Predators opened.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #27
Volume
(millions)
2011 $144 (-10% vs 2007-10 average; -22% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $159
Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $184 Despicable Me $56, Predators $25
2009 $135 Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008 $144 Hellboy II $34, Journey Center Earth $21
2007 $172 Harry Potter Order Phoenix $77
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 from Warner Brothers and Winnie the Pooh from Disney. Those movies will be compared to Inception ($63 million opening weekend) and The Sorcerer's Apprentice ($18 million), making next weekend easily an up weekend versus 2010 (the first in four weeks).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
Showing posts with label cars 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cars 2. Show all posts
FRIDAY JULY 8 BOX OFFICE RESULTS
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A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: Disney
With a summer movie season bracketed by the first weekend in May on one end, and Labor Day on the other, we've reached the midpoint of 2011's array of blockbusters, and for the next week, here at SHOWBUZZDAILY, we'll be providing our judgments on how the studios are doing. US Grosses are as of July 4, 2011; Overseas Grosses are as of July 3,2011.
Today; The Mouse House
MOVIES IN RELEASE
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES
US Release: May 20
US Gross: $234,200,000
Overseas Gross: $774,000,000
Worldwide Total: $1,008,000,000
CARS 2
US Release: June 24
US Gross: $123,002,000
Overseas Gross: $82,200,000 Worldwide Total: $205,202,000
THE MONEY
You can't argue with a billion dollars; Pirates 4 is the 8th biggest worldwide moneymaker of all time, and it could catch up to Pirates 2 in 4th place, just $58M ahead. That would leave it behind only Avatar, Titanic and the last Lord of the Rings on the all-time list. These massive numbers disguise the fact that Pirates 4 has the lowest US boxoffice total of the Top 19 worldwide--amazingly, only 23 cents of every dollar it's earned has come from the US, and it's by far the least successful of its franchise in the domestic market. A dollar is a dollar, even if it has to be converted to get there, and Disney will take the money wherever it's earned. Since future installments of the series will certainly be coming (at least as long as Johnny Depp wants to don that eyeliner), it'll be interesting to see if Disney tries to boost the US popularity of the series through casting and locations, or whether Pirates embraces its foreign identity and treats the US as a large but not crucially important territory.
The news is less ambiguous for Cars 2 Domestically, it's headed for the 2d lowest Pixar gross ever, and it's dented the Pixar brand critically (see below). The international view is a little incomplete ($82 million is a good first weekend in a limited number of territories and we expect this number to jump substantially next week). We have a ballpark estimate of $275 million total overseas, assuming an international multiple similar to recent Pixar releases over a domestic total as measured by the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. As with many high profile Hollywood movies, the international gusher of money can mitigate weakness on the homefront.
THE QUALITY
In 2 words: Not Good.
Pirates 4 was perhaps less disastrous than its immediate predecessor, but it's a dull and unexciting adventure that feels like it was made with everyone's eye on their paychecks. Those paychecks have plenty of zeroes, so it's not clear if anyone cares, but it'd be nice to think that the slack writing, acting and direction will eventually catch up with the series.
Cars 2 isn't just the worst Pixar movie to date, it's the first bad Pixar movie ever, lazily plotted and mostly unfunny. The bulletproof reputation that kept Pixar on a pedestal above DreamWorks and any other animation pretenders has been breached, and the next Pixar movie (the medieval Scottish adventure Brave in June 2012) will be scrutinized--by audience and critics--with a skeptical eye that the studio has never experienced before. The Disney policy of encouraging sequels and franchises (discussed in this NY Times article) may have to be balanced against the value of the studio's most prestigious and profitable brand.
STILL TO COME
WINNIE THE POOH - July 15: Pure counterprogramming to the Harry Potter avalanche that day, aimed at kids too young for the increasing darkness at Hogwarts. Modestly budgeted and marketed.
THE HELP - August 12: Notable as the first "serious" release from Disney's new DreamWorks division (I Am Number Four was its first nonserious release). It's too early to discuss The Help in any depth, but it's a worthy movie with a great cast, based on a bestseller, that seems a bit out of place in its mid-August slot; normally a picture like this, hoping to get some awards attention for the actresses at least, would be opening a month or so later.
FRIGHT NIGHT - August 19: More DreamWorks, this one a low-budget horror comedy that'll be hoping to make a few bucks before summer ends. The trailer looks promising, but it opens against the new Conan the Barbarian, and the following week it has to face the latest Final Destination kill-fest, so it runs the risk of being squeezed out.
MIDSUMMER GRADES:
THE MONEY: B. A summer whose only major releases are shaky entries in preexisting franchises, with the other titles (the first of the company's new regime under Rich Ross) as virtual throwaways, builds nothing for the future--and the mismanagement of the Pixar brand is worrisome.
THE QUALITY: C+. Two mediocre movies don't make for a good season, and "Won't Make You Actively Suffer!" isn't much of a summer slogan.
Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.
Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE UPDATE
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON is reporting (pending actual numbers tomorrow) a 4-day weekend gross of $116.7M, giving it a total of $181.1M since opening Tuesday evening. That puts it around 10% ahead of the original Transformers and 15% behind Transformers 2. The original Transformers declined only 47% in its second weekend (the first sequel went down 61%), so if the new film is to keep pace, it'll have to hold up very well over the next week.
LARRY CROWNE and MONTE CARLO continued their sad trajectories, with Larry grossing $15.7M over 4 days and Monte Carlo mustering only $8.8M.
Box Office Footnotes - July 2
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON becomes the latest franchise movie to fall short in the US compared to prior chapters of the series, despite an increased 3D ticket price. (Like others, most notably Pirates 4, it may well make up the shortfall overseas.) That doesn't make a US gross of $350M anything to complain about, but it will continue to change the studio dynamic of how future franchises are developed and produced. An acid test of this phenomenon will come in 2 weeks when we get to the final HARRY POTTER, which people have assumed will be the highest grossing of the series because it's the last chapter (and in 3D)--but will that prove true?Universal can talk all it wants about the budget of LARRY CROWNE being only $30M and its audience being an older crowd that doesn't rush out on opening weekend; the studio paid for a big-time marketing campaign, and that means no profits for anyone (including Hanks and Roberts, who could only have achieved that budget with enormous back-end deals). The question isn't so much whether Hanks and Roberts are giant stars any longer (they're not), but who steps into their shoes? There's little sign that Katherine Heigl or Ryan Reynolds, just to name two, can become that level of star. (Bill Simmons at Grantland wrote a terrific column this week about the current definition of movie stardom--very much recommended.)
Thinking of people who aren't movie stars: MONTE CARLO couldn't manage a decent opening even with Selena Gomez, Leighton Meester, Cory Monteith and Katie Cassidy in the cast. Unlike Larry Crowne, though, this one had a limited marketing campaign, so the red ink shouldn't be so bad. (Nicole Kidman, who originally developed the movie to star herself and other actresses in her age group, must be wondering why she allowed the picture to become teened and herself relegated to a mere producer.)
CARS 2 is having, by a considerable margin, the worst 2d weekend drop in Pixar history--and that's on a holiday weekend! Its decline being more severe than the one for BAD TEACHER is a bet even Vegas wouldn't have taken 2 weeks ago. (By the way, for devotees of Cinemascore: take a look at the A- Cars 2 scored and the C+ of Bad Teacher and try to rationalize how those grades can mean anything. For a comparison of the statistical value of Cinemascore versus critic reviews, read Mitch Metcalf's piece on calculating Word of Mouth.)
BRIDESMAIDS and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continued their almost imperceptible weekend drops, especially Midnight, which now seems certain to become Woody Allen's biggest hit (unadjusted for inflation, which is relevant when you're talking about a 40-year career). In smaller releases, TREE OF LIFE and BEGINNERS added a few theatres and held fairly steady; we'll see in the next few weeks how wide Fox Searchlight and Focus think they can go. The only notable new limited release is the extremely well-reviewed TERRI, from new indie distributor ATO: it's a tough sell and seems to be headed for an only OK $10K or so in each of 6 theatres.
No action movie wanted to open on July 8 and be sandwiched between the behemoths of Transformers and Harry Potter, so this week we get more counterprogramming: the R-rated comedy HORRIBLE BOSSES, which has a fun premise but not a lot of star power (other than Jennifer Aniston in a supporting role); and ZOOKEEPER, with the kind of cute talking animals that could deal a deathblow to the floundering Cars 2.
WEEKEND BOXOFFICE BULLETIN
Mitch Metcalf will doubtless have more to say about this later today, but the weekend's actual boxoffice totals have just been announced, and the surprise is that CARS 2 ended up almost $2M below the number Disney predicted yesterday, $66.1M rather than $68M. This translates into a Sunday drop that was far heavier than expected (27% instead of 18%), and comes after the film had already suffered a 9% drop on Saturday. By way of comparison, after Toy Story 3 and Wall-E fell on their first Saturdays, the Sunday drop for each was less than 20%. What this probably means is word of mouth that's less than great.
Box Office Footnote - June 26
The 10% drop for CARS 2 on Saturday is unusual, but by no means unheard of, for a big animated film (Toy Story 3 and Wall-E had similar drops, and they worked out OK). Any additional slippage on Sunday beyond the 19% Disney is projecting, though, could be cause for concern.
The similar Saturday decline for Bad Teacher is a little less worrisome, given its genre, but still indicates less than terrific word of mouth. By way of comparison, Bridesmaids went up 35% on its Day 2.
Box Office Footnotes - June 25
CARS 2 overperformed a bit, although $75M isn't much higher than the original Cars opening ($60M) plus 3D ticket prices. It should hold well over the holiday weekend (the talking vehicles in Transformers skew a little older), but the following week it'll face Paul Blart and his chatty animals in ZOOKEEPER, and that may be more of a challenge.
BAD TEACHER turned out to be a brilliant piece of counterprogramming against the squeaky-clean Cars 2. Not only is it headed for 50% more than Diaz's last comedy opening (What Happens In Vegas), it should make considerably more than the $26M earned in the first 5 days by Knight and Day, which also featured a guy named Cruise. Its C+ Cinemascore is nothing to brag about; nevertheless, with the giant success of this and Bridesmaids, expect a lot of actresses to be saying dirty words on screen over the next couple of years.
GREEN LANTERN's collapse makes it another failure for Warners and DC Comics to develop a non-Christopher Nolan franchise. The pressure that was already on Zack Snyder and his Superman movie The Man Of Steel just got a lot heavier.
MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS held quite nicely, especially in the face of Cars 2. It's still not going to be a big moneymaker, but it won't embarrass anyone.
While MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continued to romp its way to being a blockbuster in Woody Allen terms, TREE OF LIFE almost doubled its theatre count (still only at 215) and took a hit on its per-theatre number to around $6500; Beginners had similar results. A BETTER LIFE, which will be a major marketing challenge for Summit, is headed for an OK $16K in each of only 4 art theatres, while the documentary CONAN O'BRIEN CAN'T STOP will find its audience (if at all) on the home screen, with just $4K per theatre in 40.
Next weekend will be all TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON. Or "weekend," since Paramount is opening the movie at 9PM Tuesday night in order to stretch its holiday to 6 1/2 days. (The last Transformers, which opened on Wednesday--meaning Tuesday midnight--the week before July 4th, racked up $215M in its first 6 days, on its way to a $402M domestic total.) Universal and Fox will try to counterprogram with soft romantic comedies, respectively the genial LARRY CROWNE aimed at older audiences, and MONTE CARLO for younger girls.
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JUNE 24-26 -- UPDATE
Reviews have been coming in progressively worse for Cars 2, dropping from 50% positive at RottenTomatoes to 37% as of Friday morning. In line with this trend is Mitch Salem's review of the film. The words "lazy" and "phoning it in" seem to summarize what reviewers think, and that does not bode well for the long-term box office prospects for the film.
We are not going to adjust the opening weekend forecast ($67 million), which is usually immune to less than stellar reviews. However, the long-term gross prospects will take a hit as weekend declines should be sharper than expected. We originally pegged the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Gross estimate at $185 million, but we are going to take that number down to $175 million. Parenthetically, this is not very good news for Team Metcalf in the Summer Movie Draft, which will be updated later today when the Thursday box office numbers are in. Cars 2 was an important component in Metcalf's comeback strategy in the closely watched game.
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Cars 2" - Running On Fumes
CARS 2 - Watch It At Home: Pixar Shifts Into Second Gear
CARS 2 is preceded by a short subject, the first in what's intended as a series called Toy Story Toons. Entitled Hawaiian Vacation, it features all the familiar characters and voices, runs about 10 minutes, and effortlessly recaptures the joy, wit and grace of its predecessors. If you see it, cherish those minutes, because after it's over, Cars 2 begins.
And with that, one of the greatest streaks in motion picture history comes to an end. All good things, they say, will do that: after 15 consecutive weeks in 1997-98, Titanic was no longer #1 at the boxoffice; 26 years following its 1939 opening, Gone With the Wind gave up its crown of most successful film ever (unadjusted for inflation) to The Sound of Music. And now: after 16 years, 11 brilliant feature films, 6 of the 10 Best Animated Feature Oscars awarded thus far (not to mention 2 Best Picture nominees) and billions of dollars truly earned, Pixar, mighty Pixar, has... bunted to first.
It would be neater to say that they've struck out, but not quite accurate: It is Pixar, after all, so Cars 2 is often visually glorious, from spectacular cityscapes to tiny, marvelous details. But it's the first film the studio has made that feels dramatically lazy and assembled for commercial reasons, with a "soul" applied by rote--it's their first "product." If Pixar's unspoken slogan has always been the animation version of "It's Not TV. It's HBO," Cars 2 is TV. Which was probably inevitable, but still pretty damn depressing to watch.
Although formally Cars 2 is of course a sequel to its 2006 forebear, it's actually a reconfiguring of the original. The main character this time is Mater (voiced by Larry the Cable Guy), the small-town tow truck from Radiator Springs who became race car Lightning McQueen (Owen Wilson)'s best friend. Cars 2 is an action comedy, and one of a familiar sort, where the slow-witted (but pure of heart) Mater is embroiled in an espionage plot, mistaken for a master spy by new characters Finn McMissile (Michael Caine) and Holley Shiftwell (Emily Mortimer). This is the kind of thing Bob Hope did in My Favorite Spy in 1951, and Get Smart and The Pink Panther series are variations that date back 50 years. Laboriously we have to wait for almost the entire movie before Mater can understand that the spies think he's one of them and he can convince them he's not, and it was funnier when Hope did it. Meanwhile there are huge action sequences that could have come out of last year's G.I. Joe movie.All of this would have been bearable if behind the story, Cars 2 had the kind of originality and heart that's been a hallmark of every other Pixar film, but this is just an empty romp, with an instantly obvious "surprise" villain and predictable jokes. (There's even something unpleasant about the story as it's revealed--mild spoiler alert--that the evil cars are a pack of jealous clunker models like Pacers and Yugos; it's like a version of Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer where the Island of Misfit Toys hatches a plot to kill Santa.) As a result, even though Cars 2 is the most frenetically paced of any Pixar movie, it's also the most tedious, because like any other hollow action movie, it just grinds its way from giant set-piece to set-piece; if Michael Bay ever directed an animated film, it would look like Cars 2.
But in fact, this isn't just a Pixar movie, but one personally directed by John Lasseter, which makes its vacuousness even more of a shock (Brad Lewis is credited as "co-director"); the script is by Ben Queen, with Lasseter, Lewis and Dan Fogelman sharing the story credit. This is Lasseter's first film as director since the original Cars in 2006, after which he took on heavy corporate responsibilities at Disney. Pixar has become a multi-billion dollar business (Cars was a successful movie, but it became a financial bonanza through merchandising sales) that is now very much in the sequel business, with Monsters University upcoming. Did any of that contribute to the routine feel of this film? That seems like too easy an answer, especially since the masterful, heartfelt Toy Story 3 was only a year ago.
There are certainly things to appreciate in Cars 2. The story is set against the backdrop of a series of 3 Grand Prix auto races in Tokyo, Italy and London, organized by alternative fuel tycoon Miles Axelrod (Eddie Izzard) and all these locations are spectacularly imagined in the film's car-centric universe. (In Japan, there are kabuki, sumo and geisha cars.) The sheer scale of the number and varieties of vehicles is sometimes breathtaking. Almost alone among recent 3D films, the images are bright and clear (although the 3D isn't really necessary). There's also a surprisingly political point of view in the film's ending. The movie isn't a waste of money; it will earn its billions from global boxoffice and toys. But the gasps it provokes are of a markedly lesser kind than the ones Pixar has in the past.
Along with the marvelous Toy Story Toon short, there's another promising sign before Cars 2 begins: the first teaser trailer for Pixar's upcoming Brave, which will open next summer. Set in ancient Scotland, with a female protagonist, it looks ambitious, distinctive... like a real Pixar movie.
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JUNE 24-26
This weekend will feature a Pixar sequel aimed at kids and their parents, while young adults and older teens are the bullseye for an R-rated comedy starring Cameron Diaz, the queen of movies released the last weekend of June. The weekend overall is looking like it will be slightly above this weekend last year.
Opening at about 3,900 theaters, Cars 2 should average a strong $17,200 per theater (for $67 million this weekend). Critical reception so far has been mediocre for the Disney-Pixar sequel, 50% positive at RottenTomatoes, suggesting the movie probably will not have strong second and third weekend holds. For comparison, Cars opened in June 2006 with $60 million, while Wall-E opened in June 2008 with $63 million, Up opened in late May 2009 with $68 million and Toy Story 3 opened in June 2010 with $110 million.
At about 3,000 theaters, Cameron Diaz's Bad Teacher should average a somewhat above par $8,500 (for $25.5 million this weekend). Critical reaction to the R-rated comedy has also been mixed (52% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes).
(millions)
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
June 24-26 Positive Weekend Total*
Cars 2 Dis G 50% $67 $185
Bad Teacher Sony R 52% $25.5 $ 85
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Green Lantern should take a hit in its second weekend and fall to third place behind the two openers. Earlier this week it looked like relatively solid weekday business would propel Green Lantern to a more normal 45-50% decline, but the genre really will dictate the second weekend drop: most of the audience that was excited about this picture rushed out in the first few showings to see it. The other declines are more moderate. Bridesmaids continues to decline at a slower than normal rate -- after seven weekends it will still be hanging around in the top 10. In this day and age, that is quite an achievement.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
June 24-26 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Green Lantern WB -64% $19 $148
Super 8 Par -41% $13 $129
Mr Popper's Penguins Fox -46% $10 $ 65
X-Men: First Class Fox -47% $ 6.5 $155 Mr Popper's Penguins Fox -46% $10 $ 65
Bridesmaids Uni -32% $ 5.0 $165
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par/DW -51% $ 4.5 $172
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par/DW -51% $ 4.5 $172
Midnight in Paris Sony -18% $ 4.0 $ 39
Pirates 4 Dis -47% $ 3.5 $240
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $169 million total, ranking 5th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $157 million, and June 26-28, 2009 was $193 million. This weekend is looking like a basically average $166 million.
This Weekend Last Two Years
This weekend in 2010, a weekend to forget -- big stars, forgettable films.
6.25.10
Grown Ups SONY PG13 Adam Sandler Kevin James
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $38 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $121 Actual: $162
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $109
Knight & Day FOX PG13 Tom Cruise Cameron Diaz
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $26 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $73 Actual: $76
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $184
2009 featured a huge opening by the second Transformers film -- not only $109 million for Friday-Sunday but also $91 million Wednesday-Thursday for a $200 million first five days. Combined with a very good international gross, this film might not have been art, but it is the lone true commercial success this weekend the last few years.
6.26.09
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen PAR/ DW PG13 Shia LaBeouf
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $89 Actual: $109
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $402 Actual: $402
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $433
My Sister's Keeper WB PG13 Cameron Diaz Abigail Breslin
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $43 Actual: $49
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $30
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday's actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.
Box Office Footnotes - June 18
GREEN LANTERN cost at least as much as Thor ($350-400M with worldwide marketing), and will probably open around 15% lower--and Thor is no blockbuster hit. Which means that although intensive promos got bodies into theatres, Warners and DC aren't out of the woods. The picture only scored a B on Cinemascore despite what must have been a ton of comic book movie fans buying tickets, so word of mouth may be painful on this one.
There was a time when the MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS number would have been OK, because DVD sales would have made up for lackluster boxoffice. But at a cost of at least $200M, and with the DVD market having cratered, it doesn't look good. Big loser is Jim Carrey, who's now clearly off the A-list.
SUPER 8 had a very solid hold, although considering where it started, it will still only be a modest grosser (and Paramount had to invest in heavy Week 2 marketing expense). The other holdovers continued pretty much as they had been, with all the franchises heading to series lows, X-MEN declining sharply (so much for good reviews) and BRIDESMAIDS holding like a champion.
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is starting to look like an indie juggernaut--it's now certain to be Woody Allen's highest grosser since Hannah and Her Sisters in 1986 (although a comparison of those two would require serious adjustment for ticket price inflation). TREE OF LIFE expanded again to 114 theatres, and it's per-theatre number is starting to falter: compare its $10K/theatre to the $18K Midnight In Paris made when it hit 154 theatres. BEGINNERS is keeping its head above water, doubling to 44 theatres and heading for around $8K in each.
THE ART OF GETTING BY is a negligible picture that Fox Searchlight didn't figure out how to market--with a disastrous $1500 per theatre, it'll vanish quickly.
Next weekend is all CARS 2, and the only question is how it will compare to previous Pixar openings. the $110M Toy Story 3 made is unlikely, so it'll be looking at the $60-70M earned by the original Cars and other recent Pixars like Wall-E and Up. BAD TEACHER is R-rated counterprogramming that should find a place in 2d; it'll be interesting to see whether direct competition finally slows Bridesmaids down. Looking slightly farther down the road, Paramount announced that TRANSFORMERS 3 will start its 3D and IMAX engagements on Tuesday June 28, giving the movie a giant "July 4th weekend" that will last a full week.
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