Movie Box Review

Today:  The Ministry of Magic

US Release:  May 26

US Gross:  $250,817,247

Overseas Gross:  $310,400,000

Worldwide Total:  $561,217,247

GREEN LANTERN
US Release:  June 17
Overseas Gross:  $33,300,000

US Release:  July 8

US Gross:  $28,302,165

Overseas Gross:  n/a (not yet released overseas)

Worldwide Total:  n/a

 

THE HANGOVER PART II, with a moderate (for a summer tentpole release) $80M budget, is a printing press of money.  Already $100M more successful than its predecessor (worldwide--like every other summer franchise, it's a bit weaker domestically), it's one of the most profitable series around, and will certainly continue as long as the talent wants to keep going.  (One long-term downside:  unlike a superhero franchise, it'll be harder to "reboot" once the original stars leave.)

GREEN LANTERN, on the other hand, is a primer in ineffective franchise creation.  Bad movie + bad ad campaign = bad boxoffice/red ink.  Torpedoed Ryan Reynolds' campaign to be declared a movie star, and didn't do anything for Blake Lively, either.  Along the way, it even hurt the cause of 3D movies. 

HORRIBLE BOSSES is off to a nice start, but it's still early,  The big question, for this and the other successful R-rated summer comedies (other than Hangover 2) is whether it can do any significant business overseas.

THE QUALITY

Critics hated HANGOVER 2 (35% on Rotten Tomatoes), but everyone went to see it--making up for our unpopulist view on Bridesmaids, at Showbuzzdaily we were kinder to the movie than most.

GREEN LANTERN was unquestionably awful, with a pathetic 26% score at RT.

HORRIBLE BOSSES is OK, not much more than that--its 73% RT score doesn't indicate great love for the film so much as widespread mild affection. 

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) - July 15:   Yeah, this one may make a few bucks.  The early reviews, mostly from the UK, are first rate (93% on RT), and really the only questions are whether it'll get to $1 billion, and beat Transformers 3 for #1 picture of the summer--both seem like pretty good bets.

CRAZY STUPID LOVE - July 29: A really fine movie that combines big laughs with surprising emotional texture.  It should open fairly well, but will need great reviews (which it deserves) to hang around in theatres long enough to hit that next level of boxoffice success. 

FINAL DESTINATION 5 - August 12:  Is it really just #5?  It feels like this franchise has been around as long as Jason and his hockey mask.  The last one made $186M worldwide--this one will probably do less, particularly in the US where the stunt of 3D killings has worn off.  Still, it could earn enough to keep the franchise alive, which is more than can be said for its characters.  

Today:  Kabletown Studios

US Release:  April 29

US Gross:  $208,769,000

Overseas Gross:  $392,831,354

Worldwide Total:  $601,600,354

BRIDESMAIDS
US Release:  May 13
Overseas Gross:  $48,500,000

US Release:  June 3

US Gross:  $2,697,327

Overseas Gross:  n/a (Focus only controls certain territories)

Worldwide Total: n/a

LARRY CROWNE
US Release:  July 1
Overseas Gross:  $8,400,000

 

Universal's summer score comes with a big asterisk:  properly speaking, FAST FIVE's April 29 opening placed it outside Hollywood's "summer."  Deleting that $600M from its numbers would make quite a difference.  But since the film opened just a week before the summer's "official" start with Thor, it was marketed as a summer movie and had the bulk of its playing time during summer, it (sort-of) counts.  Financially the picture was a bonanza, the franchise's highest grosser both domestically and overseas, and a particularly huge hit internationally--it could end up doubling the second-highest overseas gross of the series.  (Needless to say, a sixth installment is on the way.) 

BRIDESMAIDS is a much smaller hit, but an even bigger surprise for the studio:  the low-budgeted R-rated comedy with no stars has turned into the biggest smash ever from Judd Apatow's production company, and kicked off a summer of R-rated comedy success.  Since no one except Apatow will get a large back-end on this picture, there should be plenty of profit for the studio.

LARRY CROWNE is a flop, but Universal was strictly a distributor on it, with no financial investment beyond marketing costs.  Even so, the picture  may take a while to hit breakeven, but Universal is in much better shape than the film's financiers.

On the limited release side, BEGINNERS is taking its time expanding beyond art houses--this weekend it added 47 theatres for a total of 155, and saw its per-theatre gross decline to a still-acceptable $3500 or so.  If it can play out the rest of the summer, it could develop into a modest success. 

Fast Five successfully pushed the franchise into the heist genre, and may have had the smartest casting idea of the summer by adding The Rock to the movie's crew.  The result wasn't brainy, but it was fun.

Showbuzzdaily was in the minority on Bridesmaids (89% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), which was undeniably enjoyed by vast numbers of moviegoers.  Director Paul Feig, writer/star Kristen Wiig and her co-stars are all big talents, so more power to them.  Larry Crowne, on the other hand, was a misfire that left a bad aftertaste.

Beginners is a marvelous, very little movie that probably won't reach a wide audience, but is at least being seen. 

STILL TO COME

COWBOYS & ALIENS - July 29:  Universal can't seem to figure out how to sell this big-budget, high-concept whatsit.  There have been multiple trailers, some playing up the western genre, some the star power of Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford, others the scifi special effects.  That kind of muddled sell usually doesn't help at the boxoffice.

THE CHANGE-UP - August 5: Jason Bateman's new hit with Horrible Bosses may boost this R-rated body-switch comedy, which seemed doomed after Ryan Reynolds failed to thrill anyone as the Green Lantern.  Although it follows Friends With Benefits and Crazy Stupid Love in the summer line-up, this one could skew more to a male audience.   

ONE DAY (Focus) - August 19:   This initially seemed like a no-brainer:  Anne Hathaway in a romantic comedy drama based on a bestselling (and extremely good) book, from the director of An Education.  The decision to push opening day from midsummer to the last couple of weeks before Labor Day doesn't bode well, though.  

Today:  Murdoch Empire, Less Scary Division

US Release:  May 27

US Gross:  $8,084,606

Overseas Gross:  n/a (Searchlight only controls some territories)

Worldwide Total: n/a

X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS
US Release:  June 3
Overseas Gross:  $196,198,895
MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS

US Release:  June 17

US Gross:  $53,800,091

Overseas Gross:  $11,100,000

Worldwide Total: $64,900,091

THE ART OF GETTING BY (Fox Searchlight)
US Release:  June 17
Overseas Gross:  n/a

 

With one big picture yet to open, so far Fox is having an underwhelming summer on the financial side.  Its only tentpole thus far was X MEN:  FIRST CLASS, and that will be the lowest grossing domestically of the franchise's history; even though it will do better internationally (probably 2d for the series behind X-Men 3), that won't be enough to lift it worldwide above any of the others, except the original film from 11 years ago.  It should still be profitable, but won't reap the kind of revenues that a studio seeks in its biggest summer release.

The news is worse after that.  Even if MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS cost the $60M Fox claims, it will need a much more solid performance overseas than it had in the US in order to hit breakeven.  MONTE CARLO was modestly budgeted, but isn't likely to even recoup its marketing costs.

On the Fox Searchlight limited release side, the jury is still out in THE TREE OF LIFE, which has done well in only around 200 theatres but has heftier promotional costs than the typical art movie and needs to expand outside big cities.  THE ART OF GETTING BY was a complete flop.

Fox can console itself, at least somewhat, with the critical praise some of its releases have earned.  With an 87% favorable rating on Rotten Tomatoes, X Men is behind only Bridesmaids and Midnight In Paris as the best reviewed picture of the summer.  The very aspects of the film that made it dramatically exciting--the 1960s Cuban Missile Crisis setting, the cast chosen for genuine talent more than familiarity--probably limited its audience.

Tree Of Life has drawn more polarized response--some adore it, others think it's the cinematic equivalent of the emperor's new clothes--but it's still clearly one of the notable pictures of the year.

Mr Popper, Monte Carlo and Art Of Getting By, on the other hand, collectively barely registered a pulse. 

STILL TO COME

SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN (Fox Searchlight) - July 15:  A subtitled limited release from the director of The Joy Luck Club that will probably never go beyond a small number of theatres.

ANOTHER EARTH (Fox Searchlight) - July 22: This Sundance pickup has a very small indie-movie budget, but with its powerful central performances, universal emotions and a distinctive low-tech scifi plot, it has a shot to break out and reach a more general audience. 

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES - August 5:   Fox's last shot for a big summer hit.  The trailer is promising (those CG intelligent apes are almost too convincing), and if Cowboys & Aliens doesn't hit big the week before, Apes will have the entire month of August without any big-budget action competition.  

THE MONEY:  C+, X-Men did not deliver what it needed to and the rest barely registered -- if Apes hits, they can earn a B.

US Release:  May 20

US Gross:  $34,998,139

Worldwide Total: n/a