Movie Box Review

Unlike nearly all the other action epics this summer, CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER is rolling out slowly overseas, with only a couple of dozen territories getting the picture this weekend.  That will postpone a call on its ultimate boxoffice fate, because in this genre, international results are crucially important, contributing more than half of ultimate boxoffice--and because Captain America (retitled in 3 territories to remove any US stigma) could meet resistance in some areas.  Worth noting:  while the difference between its A- Cinemascore rating and Thor's B+ is meaningless, the fact that the Captain had about 50% more young viewers than the Norse god could suggest a more frontloaded boxoffice than Thor had.  For now, Captain America is, by a (not to be unduly suspicious of studio estimators) remarkably thin margin, the biggest superhero opener of the season. Also in its favor:  reports that next weekend's Cowboys and Aliens is tracking weakly (so expect the TV airwaves to be bombarded with last-minute promos for that one in the next few days).

A 73% drop for HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) wouldn't be historic--just in the Top 30 of all-time second weekend falls--but more subjectively, it would be the worst drop ever for a movie as well-reviewed and generally well-regarded as Hallows 2 is.  (The massively front-loaded Twilight series has never gone beyond a 70% second weekend fall.)  Any lingering fan hope of a Best Picture nomination probably went out the window yesterday.  Mitch Metcalf will tell us over the course of the weekend whether Harry's all-important foreign numbers are slipping as badly.

The FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS number is a bit disappointing, especially considering generally solid reviews. (Mine is here.)   It's a picture that would normally benefit from good word of mouth and some extended playing time, but with Crazy Stupid Love, The Change-Up and 30 Minutes or Less about to flood the comedy pipeline, that may be time Friends doesn't have.

Amazingly, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS lost 10% of its theatres this weekend and yet its Friday boxoffice number barely moved.  It could now realistically be on its way to a $50M US gross.  A BETTER LIFE expanded again, by 20%, but because its per-theatre number fell, its Friday boxoffice is down 35% from last week.  Similarly, Fox Searchlight's SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN (for which the only important credit is "Produced by Wendi Murdoch," AKA the wife who so zealously protected her billionaire hubby--and owner of Searchlight--from shaving cream last week)  more than doubled its theatres and saw its per-theatre number fall by almost half.  

The roughly $20K per theatre for ANOTHER EARTH is better news than the same number for SARAH'S KEY, since the latter is a slick international co-production based on a bestselling novel and Another Earth is a very low-budgeted indie. (And one well worth seeking out--my review is here.)  THE MYTH OF THE AMERICAN SLEEPOVER has been getting excellent reviews, but seems likely to do only about $12K in one NY house.

 

Despite the enormous 53% drop on Saturday, Warners is projecting only a 21% fall for HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) on Sunday, which would be 2nd lowest in the week's Top 10, behind only Disney's WINNIE THE POOH (which figures to be strong in Sunday matinees).  If the Harry Potter number slips, the weekend could fall a bit--but still be more than enough to retain the All-Time Best Opening Weekend crown, since right now it has a $10M edge over The Dark Knight and its $158M opening.

The All-Time title is worldwide, as well:  Warners is estimating  an overseas opening total of $307M (beating Pirates 4 and its $260M), and a global opening total of $476M, which handily defeats Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince at $394M.  Only 8 movies have ever made over $1 billion worldwide--none of them from the Harry Potter series--and Deathly Hallows Part 2 should make it 9.  

(That sound you hear is the studio begging J.K. Rowling just to consider the possibility of a sequel, spinoff, prequel--anything.)  

As expected, Transformers 3 took the biggest hit from Harry Potter's arrival, with more than 50% declines both domestically and overseas.  In the US, that's a far sharper fall than the 43-45% drops the other Transformers had in their 3rd weekends.  Although the picture now has around $763M after only 3 weeks (and is already ahead of its 2 predecessors internationally), its own chances of getting to the magic $1 billion number seem to be fading.

The other movies in the Top 10 (aside from the collapsing Larry Crowne and Super 8, which lost a lot of theatres after 6 weeks) weren't so damaged by the Potter deluge.  That includes Horrible Bosses and the truly horrible Zookeeper, which had modest 38-39% declines in their second weekends.  

In limited release, both A Better Life and Beats, Rhyme and Life tried expanding, and took corresponding hits in their per-theatre numbers, dropping to a sad $1500 for Better and $6500 for Beats (which is still in only 22 houses).  Erroll Morris' odd documentary Tabloid had the best limited opening with a decent $7200 in each of 14 theatres, while Wayne Wang's Snow Flower and the Secret Fan managed only $5700 in each of 24.  The excellent--but hard to watch--documentary Project Nim could only scrape up $1900 in each of 22 despite rave reviews.  And the Voldemort--sorry, Sarah Palin--documentary Undefeated turned out to be as front-loaded as Harry Potter; what looked like a $10K per theatre average at 10 horcruxes on Friday fell to only $6500 when the whole weekend was counted.

Very early numbers say that TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON is headed for about $97M overseas this weekend, which of course is a huge amount of money but also a 56% drop from last weekend--higher than the 52% domestic decline.  (UPDATE:  According to the Hollywood Reporter, the Transformers number is actually $93M for the overseas weekend, a 58% drop --putting $1B just a little farther away.)   The picture should could still make it to $1 billion, with $645M already in the bank, but a lot will depend on just how dented it is by next week's global Harry Potter assault.  

In order to get ZOOKEEPER to its $21M weekend estimate, Sony is predicting a low Sunday drop (following a Saturday that had virtually no matinee bump--possibly they should have marketed more to kids and less to NBA fans).  HORRIBLE BOSSES, which despite its R rating had a bigger Saturday increase, is predicting a higher Sunday fall, so we'll see tomorrow if Sony's estimate holds up. 

LARRY CROWNE will struggle to make more than $40M domestically.  That would make it Tom Hanks' lowest grosser (where he's the star) since The Ladykillers in 2004--which had been his lowest since Bonfire Of the Vanities in 1990.

Impending disaster hangs over every early scene of Chris Weitz's new film A BETTER LIFE.  As soon as we're introduced to Carlos Galindo (Demian Bichir) and learn that he's an illegal immigrant, eking out a life as a gardener in Los Angeles as he doggedly tries to support his sullen 14-year old son Luis (Jose Julian), while doing whatever he can to avoid being arrested or deported, we know Something Bad is going to happen.  When Carlos exerts himself to the utmost and uses all his hard-earned resources to buy a used truck that will allow him to have his own small business and, he believes, finally improve his son's life, it's just a matter of time.  Sure enough, Something Bad happens, and then Something Worse, and the movie ends up exactly where we figured it would from the start. 

There's no joy in saying unkind things about a movie like A Better Life, which was made with heartfelt commitment and a fair amount of skill.  Weitz, coming off a hit Twilight movie, no doubt could have chosen to direct any number of big-budget Hollywood projects, but instead he opted to work on a no-frills, no-star, independent film.  Bichir and Julian head a fine ensemble cast, and the movie has been beautifully shot (by Javier Aguirresorobe, whose credits include Vicky Cristina Barcelona and The Road) and scored (by Alexandre Deplat).  The pace is fluid, and there's some excitement in the middle section of the story, when father and son try to cope with the Something Bad.

Ultimately, though, the movie is content to tell a predictable story in a mostly unnuanced way.  Eric Eason's script (from a story by Roger L. Simon), is so strongly influenced by The Bicycle Thief that at times it feels like an unoffical remake, but it falls short even at that when it depicts Carlos as a paragon of paternal goodness and wisdom, with little shading.  Luis is made a kid tempted by the dark side, but only so before the movie ends, he can appreciate the greatness of his dad.  For all the care and serious effort that's gone into A Better Life, it doesn't add up to more than a particularly gritty Hallmark Hall of Fame; it's as though Weitz and Eason feared political incorrectness if they suggested that their characters were merely human.  

A Better Life isn't a great movie, but it has emotional impact, and if properly sold it could reach an audience.  Summit has decided to start its campaign with a very small (4 theatre) art house run, the kind of release that requires better reviews than the film is getting; it's in danger of disappearing entirely if the studio can't forget about its awards-season strategy and rethink its approach.  Otherwise, it'll be the kind of picture people find on cable TV, and wonder why they never heard of it.