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Showing posts with label zookeeper. Show all posts
Showing posts with label zookeeper. Show all posts

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through JULY 10

The overseas gross for Transformers: Dark of the Moon has now reached the level of the forecast total domestic gross (as measured by the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate).  The overseas number will continue to grow, pushing Transformers 3 up toward the worldwide total of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.  As expected, Kung Fu Panda 2's worldwide total has caught up with The Hangover Part II's, thanks to a very solid overseas gross.   

The two new movies this weekend debuted outside the top 20: Horrible Bosses at #28 ($97 million worldwide, $97 million estimated domestic total, no overseas gross to date) and Zookeeper at #43 ($73 million worldwide, $66 million estimated domestic gross, $8 million overseas gross to date).  

The 68 wide-release films in 2011 total an estimated $10.3 billion worldwide: $4.9 billion estimated domestic total and $5.4 billion overseas to date.

Click "Read More" below to see the Top 20 worldwide releases chart.


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Box Office Footnotes - July 10

Very early numbers say that TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON is headed for about $97M overseas this weekend, which of course is a huge amount of money but also a 56% drop from last weekend--higher than the 52% domestic decline.  (UPDATE:  According to the Hollywood Reporter, the Transformers number is actually $93M for the overseas weekend, a 58% drop --putting $1B just a little farther away.)   The picture should could still make it to $1 billion, with $645M already in the bank, but a lot will depend on just how dented it is by next week's global Harry Potter assault.  


In order to get ZOOKEEPER to its $21M weekend estimate, Sony is predicting a low Sunday drop (following a Saturday that had virtually no matinee bump--possibly they should have marketed more to kids and less to NBA fans).  HORRIBLE BOSSES, which despite its R rating had a bigger Saturday increase, is predicting a higher Sunday fall, so we'll see tomorrow if Sony's estimate holds up. 

LARRY CROWNE will struggle to make more than $40M domestically.  That would make it Tom Hanks' lowest grosser (where he's the star) since The Ladykillers in 2004--which had been his lowest since Bonfire Of the Vanities in 1990.

A BETTER LIFE expanded to 153 theatres, with a disastrous affect on its per-screen number:  $2052.  If there was a way to sell the movie, Summit didn't find it.  Although the $30K per theatre earned by BEATS, RHYTHM & LIFE at 4 is a very nice number, it's a lot lower than the $40K that seemed in its grasp yesterday--this suggests that the Friday numbers were hyped up with in-theatre appearances and Q&As. 

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES JULY 8-10

Transformers 3 keeps on rolling at #1, while Horrible Bosses opens reasonably well and Zookeeper is more mediocre.  The weekend is looking like it will be down 20% from 2010.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Horrible Bosses is headed for a domestic gross of $97 million, while Zookeeper is on track for a more moderate $66 million.  Transformers: Dark of the Moon has been upgraded to $383 million.  Larry Crowne is on track for $40 million and Monte Carlo is on pace for $24 million (a slight upgrade).  Cars 2 has been upgraded a touch to $190 million, while Bad Teacher is now on track for $104 million.  Green Lantern has stabilized at $117 million, while Mr Popper's Penguins is holding steady at $69 million.     



Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Horrible Bosses will average a good $9,247 per theater at 3,040 theaters (for $28.1 million from Friday-Sunday).  Zookeeper opened with an average $6,031 at 3,482 theaters ($21.0 million).   

The second week declines this weekend are fairly moderate:  Transformers: Dark of the Moon (-52%); Larry Crowne (-52%); Monte Carlo Cars 2 (-49%).  The third weekend films bounced back to pretty good holds:  Cars 2 (-42%) and Bad Teacher (-38%). 



July 8-10, 2011                     Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
 
Transformers 3         (Par/DW)     $47.0   -52%      $383
Horrible Bosses            (WB)     $28.1             $ 97
Zookeeper                (Sony)     $21.0             $ 66
Cars 2                    (Dis)     $15.2   -42%      $190
Bad Teacher              (Sony)     $ 9.0   -38%      $104
Larry Crowne              (Uni)     $ 6.3   -52%      $ 40
Super 8                   (Par)     $ 4.8   -39%      $137
Monte Carlo               (Fox)     $ 3.8   -49%      $ 24
Green Lantern              (WB)     $ 3.1   -52%      $117
Mr Popper's Penguins      (Fox)     $ 2.8   -49%      $ 69
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 2.7   -24%      $ 49
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $ 2.7   -27%      $168
 


Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 
 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $147 million total, down 20% from the same calendar weekend last year.  When we factor in weekday business this past week, it looks like the full week comparison to last year will be down around 18%.  



Top 12 Films: Weekend #27

     Volume
     (millions)
2011  $147  (
-8% vs 2007-10 average; -20% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $159 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $184  Despicable Me $56, Predators $25    

2009  $135  Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008  $144  Hellboy II $34, Journey Center Earth $21
2007  $172 
Harry Potter Order Phoenix $77


To see the original Weekend Predictions, click here.  On Monday we will have actual numbers for the Friday-Sunday period.  Early international numbers for all films currently in release will be posted as soon as possible.

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Box Office Footnotes - July 9


Full weekend drops can be expected to hit a little harder than usual this week, because last week's holiday weekend boosted Sunday receipts.

TRANSFORMERS 3 had a second Friday about midway between those of its two predecessors ($14.9M compared to $10.8M and $18M, respectively), with a decline that was slightly worse than, but in the same neighborhood as, both (54% vs 51-52%).  It's still on target to end up with a US total between the earlier films. 

HORRIBLE BOSSES is having a very solid opening, joining the parade of R-rated comedies that have done well this summer.  This may or may not be good news for Sony's Friends With Benefits, the next raunchy comedy to hit on July 22.

What clearly wasn't good news for Sony was the ZOOKEEPER opening.  That picture had exactly one weekend to make a mark before the Potter deluge next weekend, and it didn't.  Worse, Zookeeper managed to cost a reported $80M, which along with an expansive marketing campaign means the studio needs overseas to bail it out.

The idea that LARRY CROWNE--a movie hardly anyone liked--would have soft weekend drops because other Tom Hanks movies--which people actually did like--had them was exposed as the silliness it was.  Also silly:  the idea that 50% drops for a movie like Larry Crowne are anything but disastrous.  MONTE CARLO held a little better than expected, but at those numbers it doesn't matter much.

As noted in Mitch Metcalf's Friday results piece, the A Tribe Called Quest documentary BEATS, RHYTHM AND LIFE is headed for a very nice $40K per screen in only 4 theatres.  However, the news was less good elsewhere in limited release:  the much-vaunted documentary PROJECT NIM, John Carpenter's THE WARD and Catherine Breillat's THE SLEEPING BEAUTY are all likely to end up at under $5K per screen.

The only question for next weekend is:  How high will HARRY POTTER go?  DEATHLY HALLOWS PART I did $125M last November, and that was without 3D  (the all-time high is THE DARK KNIGHT with $158M).  Disney will throw its new WINNIE THE POOH cartoon into the mix to get those kiddies too young for the darker tones of the Hogwarts crew, and Fox Searchlight (still in no hurry to widen THE TREE OF LIFE) will launch the subtitled SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN in limited release.

READ SHOWBUZZDAILY'S HARRY POTTER RETROSPECTIVE REVIEWS
HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE
HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS

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FRIDAY JULY 8 BOX OFFICE RESULTS


Two comedies open above $20 million this weekend (one at forecast and one slightly below), while Transformers 3 stays at #1 and its ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final has been upgraded.  However, the weekend as a whole is down significantly from this weekend last year. 

Horrible Bosses opened almost exactly at forecast ($9.9 million Friday for an expected $26.4 million this weekend versus a $26.5 million forecast).  In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Prediction.  Horrible Bosses film is headed for $92 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. See Mitch Salem's review of Horrible Bosses.   

Zookeeper will miss its forecast.  With $7.3 million Friday, the Kevin James movie is expected to reach $20.1 million this weekend, behind the $24 million prediction.  The film is headed for a just-OK $63 million total in North America.  See Mitch Salem's review of Zookeeper.

Click "Read more" to see the complete box office chart.



Transformers 3 should drop 52%, and the film has been upgraded to $382 million, putting it closer to Revenge of the Fallen ($402 million/ 53.9 million tickets sold) than the first Transformers ($319 million/ 46.4 million tickets sold).   

Cars 2 should fall 43% from last weekend, and its domestic gross has been upgraded to $189 million, thanks mostly to decent weekday business.  


July 8-10, 2011         Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Transformers 3  (Par/DW) [$46.5]    $46.8   $14.9     $382+
Horrible Bosses (WB)     [$26.5]    $26.4   $ 9.9     $ 92
Zookeeper (Sony)         [$24  ]    $20.1   $ 7.3     $ 63
Cars 2 (Dis)             [$14  ]    $14.9   $ 4.8     $189+
Bad Teacher (Sony)       [$ 8  ]    $ 8.9   $ 3.0     $104+
Larry Crowne (Uni)       [$ 8  ]    $ 6.4   $ 2.0     $ 40
Super 8 (Par)            [$ 5  ]    $ 4.7   $ 1.5     $136
Monte Carlo (Fox)        [$ 3.5]    $ 4.1   $ 1.5     $ 25
Green Lantern (WB)       [$ 3  ]    $ 3.0   $ 1.0     $116
Mr Popper's Penguins Fox [$ 3  ]    $ 2.9   $ 1.0     $ 69
 
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases

The Sony Classics documentary Beats, Rhymes & Life will average a great $40,060 this weekend at 4 theaters. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $144 million total, down a severe 22% from the same calendar weekend last year when Despicable Me and Predators opened.  

Top 12 Films: Weekend #27

     Volume
     (millions)
2011  $144  (
-10% vs 2007-10 average; -22% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $159 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $184  Despicable Me $56, Predators $25    

2009  $135  Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008  $144  Hellboy II $34, Journey Center Earth $21
2007  $172 
Harry Potter Order Phoenix $77
 

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 from Warner Brothers and Winnie the Pooh from Disney.  Those movies will be compared to Inception ($63 million opening weekend) and The Sorcerer's Apprentice ($18 million), making next weekend easily an up weekend versus 2010 (the first in four weeks). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Zookeeper" - Behind Bars


ZOOKEEPER - Not Even For Free:  Isn't There An ASPCA For Audiences?

Let's put off talking about ZOOKEEPER--it's terrible, for those with no time to spare--by mentioning the trailer for Adam Sandler's upcoming Jack & Jill that's attached to it (both movies are produced by Sandler's production company Happy Madison and released by Sony).  While it's naturally unfair to judge a picture that won't be opening until November based on 2 minutes of footage, the trailer was created for the express purpose of generating audience enthusiasm, so it's not completely out of place to say that Jack & Jill, in which Sandler plays twins--one of them female--and thus shares the screen with himself in drag, looks like one of the worst movies ever made.  Actually, it's more specific than that:  Jack & Jill resembles nothing so much as one of the "Sandler" parodies that dotted Judd Apatow's Funny People; it even has in-joke celebrity cameos by Katie Holmes and Al Pacino.  Watching that trailer is the Razzie equivalent of seeing the previews for a movie like The King's Speech:  even as it's playing, you think How is this movie not winning awards?


But I digress.   And I'll continue to do so by noting the marketing campaign for Zookeeper, which has itself been very curious.  The movie is basically A Night At the Museum meets Hitch:  the titular zoo employee (Kevin James) discovers that when no one is looking, the animals in his care become an all-star cast of celebrity voices, and they band together to help improve his inept dating life.  You'd expect a picture like this to be sold to kids and their mothers, but as anyone who watches sports on TV (or goes to websites like espn.com) knows, Sony has been massively selling it to guys, with ads blanketing the NBA playoffs and other broadcasts.  Was James' Paul Blart a magnet for male audiences?  Is it the Sandler connection?  No one will question the strategy if the movie does a big number this weekend (Mitch Metcalf's prediction is $24M), but it's an interesting approach.

OK, fine:  time to talk about the movie.  Zookeeper is directed by Frank Coraci, one of Happy Madison's 2 house directors (Dennis Dugan, who handled Jack & Jill, is the other).  His pictures for the label include The Wedding Singer, The Waterboy and Click, all of them hits (Wedding Singer was even pretty good) but none exactly a showcase for the Auteur Theory.  It's written by a conglomerate of screenwriters:  James, Nick Bakay, Rock Reuben, Jay Scherick and David Ronn, who between them couldn't come up with better than a collection of witless animal gags and cliched rom-com storylines (James is pathetically in love with WASPy Leslie Bibb and doesn't even notice the adorable Rosario Dawson, as a zoo vet, under his nose).

Coraci doesn't seem capable of composing an interesting shot, but he also doesn't seem to care.  He's there to make sure the CG and animatronic animals work, which they mostly do, and to let James milk his lovable schlemiel persona.  Most of the animals (Cher, Jon Favreau, Maya Rudolph, Jim Breuer, Don Rickles and Judd Apatow himself) are there for quips only, the exceptions being Sylvester Stallone, wry as the local lion; Sandler, who contributes his high-pitched Old Jewish Man voice as a monkey; and especially Nick Nolte, as a gorilla who becomes James' sidekick and has a storyline that comes to include one of the most blatant product placements in film history and unfortunately also some jarring physical mistreatment of the animals (parents, take note).

There's little charm and less laughter in all this.  James showed real skill in Hitch and a fumbling Everyman quality in Paul Blart, but Happy Madison isn't a place for moderation, so his character quickly becomes strained and overly silly here (when he takes Dawson to his brother's wedding to make Bibb jealous, it's not long before he's splitting his pants, knocking over an ice sculpture and doing a gorilla imitation).  Dawson and Bibb have different extremes of thankless roles, although there's the occasional moment between James and Dawson that suggests they could have had romantic chemistry in a movie with a half-decent script.  The other humans are barely present, and the plotting is awful and twelfth-hand:  yes, James has to chase down the love of his life on her way to the airport.

Parents who are tempted to bring their kids to Zookeeper should also be aware that there are long stretches when those cute talking animals are off screen, and the movie is a relatively straight (and not very good) romantic comedy.  Sports fans:  you're on your own, but ESPN Classic must be airing some 10-year old college football bowl game that'd be more fun to watch.  Say this for Zookeeper, though--it's not Jack & Jill.

(ZOOKEEPER - Sony/MGM - PG - 103 minutes - Director:  Frank Coraci - Script:  Nick Bakay, Kevin James, Rock Reuben, Jay Scherick, David Ronn - Cast:  Kevin James, Rosario Dawson, Leslie Bibb, Donnie Wahlberg, Nick Nolte, Sylvester Stallone, Adam Sandler, Cher, Jon Favreau, Judd Apatow - Wide Release)

 

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JULY 8-10

Two new comedies (one adult and one family-oriented) duke it out this weekend, while Transformers: Dark of the Moon will remain on top.  The weekend as a whole should be down versus last year.  

Opening at around 2,900 theaters, Horrible Bosses should average a solid $9,200 per theater (for $26.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  Critical reception so far has been very positive for this R-rated comedy, 85% positive at RottenTomatoes. Read Mitch Salem's review of HorribleBosses. 


At about 3,300 theaters, Zookeeper should average an above average $7,400 (for $24 million this weekend).  The PG comedy starring Kevin James and a group of talking animals does not have a score at RottenTomatoes, which means the movie is not being screened for critics by Sony.  Never a good sign.  Usually such films end up getting savaged by critics and do not have strong second and third weekends, as word of mouth is similarly weak in most cases. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
July 8-10                        Positive   Weekend   Total*
Horrible Bosses         WB  R      85%       $26.5     $ 95
Zookeeper              Sony PG     N/A       $24       $ 76

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon will remain in the #1 position, down 52% from last Friday-Sunday.  For comparison, the original Transformers declined 48% to $37.0 million in its second weekend in 2007, while Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen wilted 61% to $42.3 million in 2009. 

Cars 2 should drop another 47% in weekend three (a slightly better than average number for all movies but not good for Pixar films, which often decline only 35-40% per weekend).        

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
July 8-10                       vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
Transformers 3      Par/DW        -52%      $46.5     $356
Cars 2                 Dis        -47%      $14       $176
Bad Teacher           Sony        -44%      $ 8       $ 94 
Larry Crowne           Uni        -40%      $ 8       $ 37
Super 8                Par        -40%      $ 5       $133 
Monte Carlo            Fox        -54%      $ 3.5     $ 22
Green Lantern           WB        -52%      $ 3       $114
Mr Popper's Penguins   Fox        -43%      $ 3       $ 67

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $159 million total, ranking 8th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $184 million, and the year before was $135 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a down weekend at $147 million.   


This Weekend Last Two Years


7.9.10

 Despicable Me UNI PG    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $36  Actual: $56
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $211  Actual: $251
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $289

 Predators FOX R Adrien Brody Topher Grace  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $26  Actual: $25
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $56  Actual: $52
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $75

7.10.09 

 Bruno UNI R Sacha Baron Cohen   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $38  Actual: $31
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $69  Actual: $60
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $77

 I Love You Beth Cooper FOX PG13 Hayden Panettiere   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $7  Actual: $5
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $13  Actual: $15
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $1

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's actual numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

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Box Office Footnotes - July 2


TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON becomes the latest franchise movie to fall short in the US compared to prior chapters of the series, despite an increased 3D ticket price.  (Like others, most notably Pirates 4, it may well make up the shortfall overseas.)  That doesn't make a US gross of $350M anything to complain about, but it will continue to change the studio dynamic of how future franchises are developed and produced.  An acid test of this phenomenon will come in 2 weeks when we get to the final HARRY POTTER, which people have assumed will be the highest grossing of the series because it's the last chapter (and in 3D)--but will that prove true?

Universal can talk all it wants about the budget of LARRY CROWNE being only $30M and its audience being an older crowd that doesn't rush out on opening weekend; the studio paid for a big-time marketing campaign, and that means no profits for anyone (including Hanks and Roberts, who could only have achieved that budget with enormous back-end deals).  The question isn't so much whether Hanks and Roberts are giant stars any longer (they're not), but who steps into their shoes?  There's little sign that Katherine Heigl or Ryan Reynolds, just to name two, can become that level of star.  (Bill Simmons at Grantland wrote a terrific column this week about the current definition of movie stardom--very much recommended.) 


Thinking of people who aren't movie stars:  MONTE CARLO couldn't manage a decent opening even with Selena Gomez, Leighton Meester, Cory Monteith and Katie Cassidy in the cast.  Unlike Larry Crowne, though, this one had a limited marketing campaign, so the red ink shouldn't be so bad.   (Nicole Kidman, who originally developed the movie to star herself and other actresses in her age group, must be wondering why she allowed the picture to become teened and herself relegated to a mere producer.)

CARS 2 is having, by a considerable margin, the worst 2d weekend drop in Pixar history--and that's on a holiday weekend!  Its decline being more severe than the one for BAD TEACHER is a bet even Vegas wouldn't have taken 2 weeks ago.  (By the way, for devotees of Cinemascore:  take a look at the A- Cars 2 scored and the C+ of Bad Teacher and try to rationalize how those grades can mean anything.  For a comparison of the statistical value of Cinemascore versus critic reviews, read Mitch Metcalf's piece on calculating Word of Mouth.) 

BRIDESMAIDS and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continued their almost imperceptible weekend drops, especially Midnight, which now seems certain to become Woody Allen's biggest hit (unadjusted for inflation, which is relevant when you're talking about a 40-year career).  In smaller releases, TREE OF LIFE and  BEGINNERS added a few theatres and held fairly steady; we'll see in the next few weeks how wide Fox Searchlight and Focus think they can go.  The only notable new limited release is the extremely well-reviewed TERRI, from new indie distributor ATO:  it's a tough sell and seems to be headed for an only OK $10K or so in each of 6 theatres.

No action movie wanted to open on July 8 and be sandwiched between the behemoths of Transformers and Harry Potter, so this week we get more counterprogramming:  the R-rated comedy HORRIBLE BOSSES, which has a fun premise but not a lot of star power (other than Jennifer Aniston in a supporting role); and ZOOKEEPER, with the kind of cute talking animals that could deal a deathblow to the floundering Cars 2.  

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