INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through JULY 10
Box Office Footnotes - July 10
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES JULY 8-10
Transformers 3 keeps on rolling at #1, while Horrible Bosses opens reasonably well and Zookeeper is more mediocre. The weekend is looking like it will be down 20% from 2010.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Horrible Bosses is headed for a domestic gross of $97 million, while Zookeeper is on track for a more moderate $66 million. Transformers: Dark of the Moon has been upgraded to $383 million. Larry Crowne is on track for $40 million and Monte Carlo is on pace for $24 million (a slight upgrade). Cars 2 has been upgraded a touch to $190 million, while Bad Teacher is now on track for $104 million. Green Lantern has stabilized at $117 million, while Mr Popper's Penguins is holding steady at $69 million.
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Horrible Bosses will average a good $9,247 per theater at 3,040 theaters (for $28.1 million from Friday-Sunday). Zookeeper opened with an average $6,031 at 3,482 theaters ($21.0 million).
The second week declines this weekend are fairly moderate: Transformers: Dark of the Moon (-52%); Larry Crowne (-52%); Monte Carlo Cars 2 (-49%). The third weekend films bounced back to pretty good holds: Cars 2 (-42%) and Bad Teacher (-38%).
July 8-10, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Transformers 3 (Par/DW) $47.0 -52% $383
Horrible Bosses (WB) $28.1 $ 97
Zookeeper (Sony) $21.0 $ 66
Cars 2 (Dis) $15.2 -42% $190
Bad Teacher (Sony) $ 9.0 -38% $104
Larry Crowne (Uni) $ 6.3 -52% $ 40
Super 8 (Par) $ 4.8 -39% $137
Monte Carlo (Fox) $ 3.8 -49% $ 24
Green Lantern (WB) $ 3.1 -52% $117
Mr Popper's Penguins (Fox) $ 2.8 -49% $ 69
Midnight in Paris (Sony) $ 2.7 -24% $ 49
Bridesmaids (Uni) $ 2.7 -27% $168
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $147 million total, down 20% from the same calendar weekend last year. When we factor in weekday business this past week, it looks like the full week comparison to last year will be down around 18%.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #27
Volume
(millions)
2011 $147 (-8% vs 2007-10 average; -20% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $159
Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $184 Despicable Me $56, Predators $25
2009 $135 Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008 $144 Hellboy II $34, Journey Center Earth $21
2007 $172 Harry Potter Order Phoenix $77
To see the original Weekend Predictions, click here. On Monday we will have actual numbers for the Friday-Sunday period. Early international numbers for all films currently in release will be posted as soon as possible.
Box Office Footnotes - July 9
READ SHOWBUZZDAILY'S HARRY POTTER RETROSPECTIVE REVIEWS
HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE
HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS
FRIDAY JULY 8 BOX OFFICE RESULTS
Two comedies open above $20 million this weekend (one at forecast and one slightly below), while Transformers 3 stays at #1 and its ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final has been upgraded. However, the weekend as a whole is down significantly from this weekend last year.
Horrible Bosses opened almost exactly at forecast ($9.9 million Friday for an expected $26.4 million this weekend versus a $26.5 million forecast). In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Prediction. Horrible Bosses film is headed for $92 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. See Mitch Salem's review of Horrible Bosses.
Zookeeper will miss its forecast. With $7.3 million Friday, the Kevin James movie is expected to reach $20.1 million this weekend, behind the $24 million prediction. The film is headed for a just-OK $63 million total in North America. See Mitch Salem's review of Zookeeper.
Click "Read more" to see the complete box office chart.
Transformers 3 should drop 52%, and the film has been upgraded to $382 million, putting it closer to Revenge of the Fallen ($402 million/ 53.9 million tickets sold) than the first Transformers ($319 million/ 46.4 million tickets sold).
Cars 2 should fall 43% from last weekend, and its domestic gross has been upgraded to $189 million, thanks mostly to decent weekday business.
July 8-10, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
Transformers 3 (Par/DW) [$46.5] $46.8 $14.9 $382+
Horrible Bosses (WB) [$26.5] $26.4 $ 9.9 $ 92
Zookeeper (Sony) [$24 ] $20.1 $ 7.3 $ 63
Cars 2 (Dis) [$14 ] $14.9 $ 4.8 $189+
Bad Teacher (Sony) [$ 8 ] $ 8.9 $ 3.0 $104+
Larry Crowne (Uni) [$ 8 ] $ 6.4 $ 2.0 $ 40
Super 8 (Par) [$ 5 ] $ 4.7 $ 1.5 $136
Monte Carlo (Fox) [$ 3.5] $ 4.1 $ 1.5 $ 25
Green Lantern (WB) [$ 3 ] $ 3.0 $ 1.0 $116
Mr Popper's Penguins Fox [$ 3 ] $ 2.9 $ 1.0 $ 69
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Limited Releases
The Sony Classics documentary Beats, Rhymes & Life will average a great $40,060 this weekend at 4 theaters.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $144 million total, down a severe 22% from the same calendar weekend last year when Despicable Me and Predators opened.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #27
Volume
(millions)
2011 $144 (-10% vs 2007-10 average; -22% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $159
Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $184 Despicable Me $56, Predators $25
2009 $135 Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008 $144 Hellboy II $34, Journey Center Earth $21
2007 $172 Harry Potter Order Phoenix $77
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 from Warner Brothers and Winnie the Pooh from Disney. Those movies will be compared to Inception ($63 million opening weekend) and The Sorcerer's Apprentice ($18 million), making next weekend easily an up weekend versus 2010 (the first in four weeks).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Zookeeper" - Behind Bars
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JULY 8-10
Opening at around 2,900 theaters, Horrible Bosses should average a solid $9,200 per theater (for $26.5 million for Friday-Sunday). Critical reception so far has been very positive for this R-rated comedy, 85% positive at RottenTomatoes. Read Mitch Salem's review of HorribleBosses.
At about 3,300 theaters, Zookeeper should average an above average $7,400 (for $24 million this weekend). The PG comedy starring Kevin James and a group of talking animals does not have a score at RottenTomatoes, which means the movie is not being screened for critics by Sony. Never a good sign. Usually such films end up getting savaged by critics and do not have strong second and third weekends, as word of mouth is similarly weak in most cases.
(millions)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon will remain in the #1 position, down 52% from last Friday-Sunday. For comparison, the original Transformers declined 48% to $37.0 million in its second weekend in 2007, while Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen wilted 61% to $42.3 million in 2009.
Cars 2 should drop another 47% in weekend three (a slightly better than average number for all movies but not good for Pixar films, which often decline only 35-40% per weekend).
Larry Crowne Uni -40% $ 8 $ 37
Super 8 Par -40% $ 5 $133
Monte Carlo Fox -54% $ 3.5 $ 22
Green Lantern WB -52% $ 3 $114
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $159 million total, ranking 8th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $184 million, and the year before was $135 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a down weekend at $147 million.







