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Showing posts with label chipmunks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chipmunks. Show all posts

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 23-25

10:16 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like only $100 million, down 24% from last year.  Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally lower than originally forecast yesterday.  After Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, nothing is really catching fire.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening this weekend are headed for:  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($92 million), Adventures of Tintin ($79 million) and We Bought a Zoo ($64 million).

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($131 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($92 million), and Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($164 million) have each been adjusted downward.

Among the third week films, New Year's Eve ($40 million) and The Sitter ($25 million) are holding steady. 





December 23-25, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $26.5   +108%     $164
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $17.8   -55%      $131
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $13.3   -43%      $ 92
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $13.0             $ 92
Adventures of Tintin   (DW/Dis)     $ 9.1             $ 79
We Bought a Zoo           (Fox)     $ 7.8             $ 64
New Year's Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 3.0   -59%      $ 40 
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)     $ 2.7   -24%      $ 58 

Hugo                      (Par)     $ 2.0   -45%      $ 56

The Muppets               (Dis)     $ 2.0   -43%      $ 87



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Mission: Impossible Film Track      Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Mission: Impossible      5.22.1996   $ 45.4    $181.0    $276.7
Mission: Impossible II   5.24.2000   $ 57.8    $215.4    $331.0
 Mission: Impossible III  5.05.2006   $ 47.7    $134.0    $263.8



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very weak $100 million total Friday-Sunday, down 24% from the same calendar weekend last year and even below last weekend's sub-par $110 million.         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #51


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $100  M:I 4 $29, Girl Dragon Tattoo $15, Adv Tintin $10 
2010  $132  Little Fockers $31, True Grit $25, Gulliver's Trav $6
2009  $260  Sherlock Holmes $62, Alvin Chipmunks 2 $49
2008  $180  Marley & Me $36, Benj Button $27, Bedtime Stories $27
2007  $169  Juno $11, Aliens vs Predators $10
2007-10
Avg   $185 



Next Weekend 

Next weekend, as is traditional, no new films open wide as the Christmas movies play through New Year's.

Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the day Sunday.  We will also have preliminary numbers for the Sunday opening of War Horse and The Darkest Hour on Monday.

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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through December 18

6:46 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol opened with a narrow 425-theater preview domestically this weekend, but the fourth M:I opened in over two-thirds of the international markets this weekend and already has taken in $68 million overseas.  The other domestic openers this weekend had fairly limited international bookings the first weekend.  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows posted $14 million overseas this weekend (mostly in the UK), an identical number to the overseas opening of Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked.

Adventures of Tintin has started to max out its overseas potential.  Now it is up to the North America release to push the film to $400 million worldwide.



 

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 16-18

9:06 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the two sequels opening wide this weekend are not doing the business generally forecast, and they are under-performing the preceding movies in their series.  As a whole, the weekend is looking like $111 million for the top 12 films, down 13% from the same weekend last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening this weekend are headed for: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($154 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($140 million), Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($180 million) and Young Adult ($55 million).

Among the second week films, New Year's Eve has been adjusted upward slightly ($39 million), while The Sitter is holding steady ($25 million). 





December 16-18, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $40.2             $154
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $23.5             $140
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $13.0             $180
New Year's Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 7.4   -43%      $ 39
The Sitter                (Fox)     $ 4.4   -55%      $ 25
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)     $ 4.3   -45%      $271
Young Adult               (Par)     $ 3.7             $ 55
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)     $ 3.6   -45%      $ 51 Hugo                      (Par)     $ 3.6   -40%      $ 52
The Muppets               (Dis)     $ 3.4   -51%      $ 81
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.3   -24%      $ 40
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $ 1.2   -60%      $ 72
Happy Feet Two             (WB)     $ 1.0   -72%      $ 63

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Sequel Film Track                   Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Sherlock Holmes         12.25.2009   $ 62.3    $209.0    $315.0


Alvin and the Chipmunks 12.14.2007   $ 44.3    $217.3    $144.0

Alvin...Squeakquel      12.23.2009   $ 48.9    $219.6    $223.5



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $111 million total Friday-Sunday, down 13% from the same calendar weekend last year.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #50


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $111  Sherlock Holmes 2 $40, Alvin Chipmunks 3 $23.5
2010  $128  TRON Legacy $44, Yogi Bear $16, The Fighter $12
2009  $130  Avatar $77, Did You Hear About Morgans $6.6
2008  $ 81  Yes Man $18, Seven Pounds $15, Tale of Despereaux $10
2007  $152  National Treasure Book of Secrets $45
2007-10
Avg   $122 



Next Weekend 
Next weekend, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (goes wide Wednesday), Adventures of Tintin (opens Wednesday), Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (opens Wednesday), We Bought a Zoo (opens Friday), War Horse (opens Christmas Day Sunday) and The Darkest Hour (opens Christmas Day Sunday).  These films will be compared to Little Fockers ($31 million opening weekend), True Grit ($25 million) and Gulliver's Travels ($6.3 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010.
 


International numbers will be posted later today, and we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses on Monday.

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FRIDAY DECEMBER 16 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:41 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Oops.  The weekend forecasts were way too high for the sequels Sherlock Holmes 2 and Alvin and the Chipmunks 3.  The holiday season that was supposed to save 2011 (or at least make the year a little less embarrassing) is shaping up to be a major disappointment.  This weekend (when the box office should really be heating up) looks like it will total about $113 million for the top 12 films, 12% below the same weekend in 2010 ($128 million) and well below 2009's $130 million.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows will open with $42.0 million this weekend, far below the $61 million forecast and well below the $62 million opening for the first Sherlock Holmes, which opened December 25, 2009.  Game of Shadows is currently on track for $160 million domestically, compared to $209 million for the first Sherlock Holmes.  


Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (the third Alvin movie) is under-performing, a $23.5 million opening weekend versus a $35.5 million forecast.  Chipwrecked is on track for $140 million, compared to $217 million for the first Alvin and the Chipmunks (opened December 14, 2007) and $219 million for Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (December 23, 2009).

The lone movie above forecast was Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (the fourth in the M:I series), which previewed at 425 Imax locations.  The weekend is looking like $12.5 million (a terrific $24,400 per theater average), compared to a forecast of $10.5 million.  The film goes wide Wednesday.

Young Adult is headed for $3.2 million this weekend versus a $6.5 million forecast.  The film should average a soft $3,200 per theater at 986 locations.  The comedy-drama is headed for a preliminary $53 million domestically.

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
December 16-18, 2011    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB)   [$61.0]    $42.0   $14.7     $160
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox)[$35.5]    $23.5   $ 6.8     $140
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$10.5]    $12.5   $ 4.1     $180
New Year's Eve (WB)      [$ 7.0]    $ 7.8   $ 2.5     $ 40
Young Adult (Par)        [$ 6.5]    $ 3.2   $ 1.1     $ 53
The Sitter (Fox)         [$ 4.5]    $ 4.5   $ 1.4     $ 25
Arthur Christmas (Sony)  [$ 4.3]    $ 3.6   $ 0.8     $ 51
Twilight Breaking 1 (Sum)[$ 3.8]    $ 4.1   $ 1.3     $270
The Muppets (Dis)        [$ 3.7]    $ 3.3   $ 0.9     $ 81
Hugo (Par)               [$ 3.7]    $ 3.5   $ 1.0     $ 52
The Descendants (Fox)    [$ 3.5]    $ 3.1   $ 0.9     $ 40


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $113 million total Friday-Sunday, down 12% from the same calendar weekend last year.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #50


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $113  Sherlock Holmes 2 $42, Alvin Chipmunks 3 $23.5
2010  $128  TRON Legacy $44, Yogi Bear $16, The Fighter $12
2009  $130  Avatar $77, Did You Hear About Morgans $6.6
2008  $ 81  Yes Man $18, Seven Pounds $15, Tale of Despereaux $10
2007  $152  National Treasure Book of Secrets $45
2007-10
Avg   $122 



Next Weekend 
Next weekend, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (goes wide Wednesday), Adventures of Tintin (opens Wednesday), Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (opens Wednesday), We Bought a Zoo (opens Friday), War Horse (opens Christmas Day Sunday) and The Darkest Hour (opens Christmas Day Sunday).  These films will be compared to Little Fockers ($31 million opening weekend), True Grit ($25 million) and Gulliver's Travels ($6.3 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010. 

Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the days Sunday.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS December 16-18

11:41 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

After three very rough weekends, this weekend should be very solid at the box office.  We expect the top 12 films to gross around $145 million, up sharply from the $128 million the same weekend last year.  The second Sherlock Holmes film should lead the way with over $60 million this weekend, followed by around $35 million for the third Alvin & the Chipmunks.        



Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows from Warner Brothers (the second film in the series) should average a very strong $17,000 per theater (for $61 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Critics have been very supportive, 72% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes.  Game of Shadows is on track for $215 million domestically.  For comparison, the first Sherlock Holmes opened 12.25.2009 with a $62.3 million opening weekend on its way to $209 million domestic and $315 million overseas.   

At around 3,300 theaters, Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked from 20th Century Fox should average a solid $10,800 per theater ($35.5 million Friday-Sunday).  The third Alvin movie is looking like $180 million domestically.  Critics have been repulsed so far: 11% positive at RottenTomatoes compared to 26% positive for the first film and 21% for the Squeakquel.  For comparison, Alvin and the Chipmunks opened 12.14.2007 with a $44.3 million opening weekend on its way to $217 million domestic and $144 overseas.  Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel opened with $48.9 million on its way to $219 million and $224 million overseas.


Previewing at about 400 Imax theaters, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (the fourth M:I already) should average about $26,250 per theater (for a $10.5 million preview weekend).  The film expands wide the following weekend.  


Finally, Charlize Theron in Young Adult expands to around 1,000 theaters this weekend.  The comedy-drama should average a so-so $6,500 per theater for a $6.5 million weekend. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
December 16-18                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Sherlock Holmes 2         WB  PG13  72%      $61.0     $215
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      Fox  G     11%      $35.5     $180
Mission: Impossible 4    Par  PG13  92%      $10.5*    $170
Young Adult              Par  R     79%      $ 6.5     $ 60


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

As for the returning films and their business this weekend, not much to see here.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
December 16-18                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

New Year's Eve           WB       -47%      $ 7.0     $ 29
The Sitter              Fox       -54%      $ 4.5     $ 26
Arthur Christmas        Sony      -25%      $ 4.3     $ 49
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum       -51%      $ 3.8     $269
Hugo                    Par       - 9%      $ 3.7     $ 50
The Muppets             Dis       -39%      $ 3.7     $ 81 
The Descendants         Fox       - 2%      $ 3.5     $ 35
 
Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $122 million total, ranking 24th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $128 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $130 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, up 14% from this weekend last year and up 19% from the four-year average for this weekend.       


This Weekend Last Two Years


12/17/10

 TRON: Legacy DIS PG Jeff Bridges Garrett Hedlund 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $44  Actual: $44
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $139  Actual: $172
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $228

 Black Swan FOX R Natalie Portman Mila Kunis 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $7  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $52  Actual: $107
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $209

 Yogi Bear WB PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $21  Actual: $16
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $54  Actual: $100
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $101

 The Fighter PAR R Mark Wahlberg Christian Bale 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $13  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $52  Actual: $94
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $36

 How Do You Know SONY PG13 Paul Rudd Reese Witherspoon 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $23  Actual: $30
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $18

12/18/09

 Avatar FOX PG13 Sam Worthington Zoe Saldana 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $76  Actual: $77
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $441  Actual: $750
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $1991

 Did You Hear About the Morgans? SONY PG13 Hugh Grant Sarah Jessica Parker 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $25  Actual: $30
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $56


Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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