Box office volume drifted down a preliminary 9% Wednesday from Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $41.5 million (almost exactly matching last year's December 28 total, when the date fell on a Tuesday, and up slightly from 2005 when that day also was on a Wednesday). Click "read more" to see an updated daily top 10 movie chart and be sure to read Mitch Salem's Wednesday Edition of HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE.
DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
2011 2010 2006 2005
Dec 21 $27.5 Wed $22.0 Tue $17.8 Thu $20.5 Wed
Dec 22 $24.8 Thu $31.1 Wed $39.6 Fri $22.8 Thu
Dec 23 $37.1 Fri $33.5 Thu $43.3 Sat $36.4 Fri
Dec 24 $22.1 Sat $23.6 Fri $20.1 Sun $20.2 Sat
Dec 25 $54.5 Sun $52.5 Sat $49.4 Mon $41.4 Sun
Dec 26 $61.8 Mon $48.8 Sun $49.5 Tue $55.2 Mon
Dec 27 $45.6 Tue $41.6 Mon $41.9 Wed $40.1 Tue
Dec 28 $41.5 Wed $41.6 Tue $39.9 Thu $37.8 Wed
Dec 29 Thu $41.7 Wed $48.5 Fri $38.1 Thu
Dec 30 Fri $43.1 Thu $51.5 Sat $45.1 Fri
Dec 31 Sat $41.7 Fri $34.1 Sun $35.8 Sat
Jan 01 Sun $57.1 Sat $41.0 Mon $42.6 Sun
NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)
Updated chart of the top 10 movies currently in release follows, ranked by the Monday-Wednesday total gross.
Domestic Box Office (millions) MON- TUE WED WED
WED Dec27 Dec28 vs TUE
Mission: Impossible 4 (Par) $32.7 $ 9.6 $ 8.5 -12%
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) $24.7 $ 7.3 $ 6.5 -11%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox) $20.3 $ 6.8 $ 6.6 - 4%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony) $15.5 $ 4.7 $ 4.2 - 9%
War Horse (Dis) $14.9 $ 4.3 $ 3.7 -11%
Adventures of Tintin (Par) $14.1 $ 4.6 $ 4.1 -11%
We Bought a Zoo (Fox) $13.6 $ 4.3 $ 4.0 - 6%
New Year's Eve (WB) $ 5.2 $ 1.7 $ 1.7 + 3%
Darkest Hour (Sum) $ 4.8 $ 1.5 $ 1.2 -15%
The Muppets (Dis) $ 3.1 $ 1.0 $ 1.0 - 0%
Top 10 $45.6 $41.5 - 9%
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Box Office Results WEDNESDAY December 28
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS Dec 30-Jan 1
No new wide releases this weekend, the final weekend of the year as we welcome the arrival of 2012. We are estimating a box office volume of $145 million for Friday-Sunday for the top 12 films, up 27% from $114 million last weekend (which was limited by Christmas Eve on Saturday) and down only 2% from this weekend last year.
With Christmas Eve's low numbers in last weekend's tallies, the crop of holdovers have a great chance of growing in their second weekend. War Horse will show a particularly large weekend gain, although that is based on the fact that it played only one day in the last Friday-Sunday period.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
Dec 30-Jan 1 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Mission: Impossible 4 Par + 6% $31.2 $190
Sherlock Holmes 2 WB + 9% $22.0 $155
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 Fox +45% $18.5 $100
War Horse DW/Dis +110% $15.5 $ 75
Girl with Dragon Tattoo Sony + 9% $14.0 $ 95
Adventures of Tintin Par +39% $13.5 $ 90
We Bought a Zoo Fox +39% $13.0 $ 75
New Year's Eve WB +66% $ 5.5 $ 40
Darkest Hour Sum +27% $ 3.8 $ 35
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $153 million total, ranking 10th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $149 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $209 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, down 2% from this weekend last year.
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the New Year's weekend and the conclusion of holiday week shapes up. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is looking, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
Box Office Results TUESDAY December 27
Box office volume came back down to a normal level on Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $45.5 million (up slightly from the $40-42 million for the December 27 date when it also fell on an early weekday in 2005, 2006 and 2011). The torrid pace on Monday has been adjusted down to $61.8 (from an initial estimate of $67.8 million), still a very impressive number however.
DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
2011 2010 2006 2005
Dec 21 $27.5 Wed $22.0 Tue $17.8 Thu $20.5 Wed
Dec 22 $24.8 Thu $31.1 Wed $39.6 Fri $22.8 Thu
Dec 23 $37.1 Fri $33.5 Thu $43.3 Sat $36.4 Fri
Dec 24 $22.1 Sat $23.6 Fri $20.1 Sun $20.2 Sat
Dec 25 $54.5 Sun $52.5 Sat $49.4 Mon $41.4 Sun
Dec 26 $61.8*Mon $48.8 Sun $49.5 Tue $55.2 Mon
Dec 27 $45.5 Tue $41.6 Mon $41.9 Wed $40.1 Tue
Dec 28 Wed $41.6 Tue $39.9 Thu $37.8 Wed
Dec 29 Thu $41.7 Wed $48.5 Fri $38.1 Thu
Dec 30 Fri $43.1 Thu $51.5 Sat $45.1 Fri
Dec 31 Sat $41.7 Fri $34.1 Sun $35.8 Sat
Jan 01 Sun $57.1 Sat $41.0 Mon $42.6 Sun
*-Mon Dec 26 adjusted down from $67.8 million
NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)
In this week between Christmas and New Year's, when a weekday generates box office returns similar to a normal weekend daily number, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol remains the movie to beat. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is a very respectable second place, and both films at the top exhibited a fairly normal drop from Monday to Tuesday. Films with a sizable kid audience (Alvin, Tintin and We Bought a Zoo) had much lower than average declines from Monday to Tuesday, but the latter two are not setting the world on fire. Interestingly, War Horse had the biggest drop on Tuesday. Because of its late release date (Sunday, December 25), War Horse has a lot of ground to make up compared to the other films and it really needs to do better than $4.3 million on a day like Tuesday (ranking 7th on the day, after ranking 3rd Monday) to stay relevant.
Domestic Box Office (millions) MON- MON TUE TUE
TUE Dec26 Dec27 vs MON
Mission: Impossible 4 (Par) $24.2 $14.6 $ 9.6 -34%
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) $18.1 $10.8 $ 7.3 -32%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox) $13.8 $ 6.9 $ 6.8 - 2%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony) $11.4 $ 6.7 $ 4.7 -31%
War Horse (Dis) $11.2 $ 7.0 $ 4.3 -41%
Adventures of Tintin (Par) $10.0 $ 5.4 $ 4.6 -15%
We Bought a Zoo (Fox) $ 9.5 $ 5.2 $ 4.3 -18%
New Year's Eve (WB) $ 3.5 $ 1.9 $ 1.7 -12%
Darkest Hour (Sum) $ 3.5 $ 2.1 $ 1.5 -30%
The Muppets (Dis) $ 2.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 -10%
Top 10 $61.8 $45.5 -26%
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HOLIDAY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE December 23-26
Based on actual results for Friday, December 23-Sunday, December 25 and studio projections for Monday, December 26, the four-day holiday weekend continues to look dominated by Tom Cruise in Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, soft openings for Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Adventures of Tintin and We Bought a Zoo. However, War Horse is showing promise in its limited run so far (opening Sunday), while The Darkest Hour (also opening Sunday) is doing very little business, another attempt at the curious strategy of opening a horror-themed film on Christmas Day.
Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (the fourth M:I film) is looking like $46.2 million Friday-Monday, with $78.6 million to date domestically.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (the second Holmes) is looking like $31.8 million from Friday-Monday and $90.6 million to date domestically.
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 23-25
Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like only $100 million, down 24% from last year. Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally lower than originally forecast yesterday. After Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, nothing is really catching fire.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($131 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($92 million), and Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($164 million) have each been adjusted downward.
Among the third week films, New Year's Eve ($40 million) and The Sitter ($25 million) are holding steady.
December 23-25, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Mission: Impossible 4 (Par) $26.5 +108% $164
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) $17.8 -55% $131
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox) $13.3 -43% $ 92
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony) $13.0 $ 92
Adventures of Tintin (DW/Dis) $ 9.1 $ 79
We Bought a Zoo (Fox) $ 7.8 $ 64
New Year's Eve (WB/NL) $ 3.0 -59% $ 40
Arthur Christmas (Sony) $ 2.7 -24% $ 58
Hugo (Par) $ 2.0 -45% $ 56
The Muppets (Dis) $ 2.0 -43% $ 87
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Mission: Impossible Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Mission: Impossible 5.22.1996 $ 45.4 $181.0 $276.7
Mission: Impossible II 5.24.2000 $ 57.8 $215.4 $331.0
Mission: Impossible III 5.05.2006 $ 47.7 $134.0 $263.8
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very weak $100 million total Friday-Sunday, down 24% from the same calendar weekend last year and even below last weekend's sub-par $110 million.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #51
2011 $100 M:I 4 $29, Girl Dragon Tattoo $15, Adv Tintin $10
2010 $132 Little Fockers $31, True Grit $25, Gulliver's Trav $6
2009 $260 Sherlock Holmes $62, Alvin Chipmunks 2 $49
Next Weekend
Next weekend, as is traditional, no new films open wide as the Christmas movies play through New Year's.
Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the day Sunday. We will also have preliminary numbers for the Sunday opening of War Horse and The Darkest Hour on Monday.
FRIDAY DECEMBER 23 BOX OFFICE RESULTS
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo pulled in a weak $4.6 million Friday and should gross $15.1 million Friday-Sunday, way below the $26.5 million forecast. Girl should total $24 million through Sunday and it should finish its domestic run with around $95 million.
The Adventures of Tintin is also under-performing. With only $3.5 million Friday, Tintin should find $9.7 million Friday-Sunday (versus a modest $13.5 million forecast), bringing its total through Sunday to $18 million. We expect the film to rack up around $81 million domestically, which will basically be gravy to its far more lucrative overseas total of $240 million.
We Bought a Zoo is performing just a notch below Tintin, with $3.0 million Friday and an expected $8.6 million Friday-Sunday (versus a $13.0 million forecast). Without a Wednesday and Thursday head start, however, Zoo should finish with a lower domestic total of about $66 million.
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) [$22.5] $20.9 $ 6.8 $144
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$26.5] $15.1 $ 4.6 $ 95
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox)[$16.2] $13.6 $ 5.4 $ 93Adventures Tintin (Par) [$13.5] $ 9.7 $ 3.5 $ 81
We Bought a Zoo (Fox) [$13.0] $ 8.6 $ 3.0 $ 66
New Year's Eve (WB) [$ 4.1] $ 3.5 $ 1.3 $ 30
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $112 million total Friday-Sunday, down 15% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #51
2011 $112 M:I 4 $29, Girl Dragon Tattoo $15, Adv Tintin $10
2010 $132 Little Fockers $31, True Grit $25, Gulliver's Trav $6
2009 $260 Sherlock Holmes $62, Alvin Chipmunks 2 $49
Next Weekend
Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the day Sunday. We will also have preliminary numbers for the Sunday opening of War Horse and The Darkest Hour on Monday.
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS December 23-25
With Christmas coming this Sunday a host of films arrive this important weekend, with three films opening wide Wednesday (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Adventures of Tintin, and the wide expansion of Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol), one major film opening Friday (We Bought a Zoo), and two major films in effect previewing Sunday (War Horse and The Darkest Hour). We expect Mission: Impossible and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to have a major impact, while Tintin and Zoo should be more limited. This weekend the last four years has averaged $185 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday period ($169 million in 2007, $180 million in 2008, $260 million in 2009 and a very weak $132 million in 2010). We forecast this weekend to total $145 million, better than last year but well below the other recent years.
Opening at over 2,800 theaters, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo from Sony should average a strong $9,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for $26.5 million Friday-Sunday and $43 million Wednesday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Critics are generally supportive, 83% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes. Girl is on track for $150 million domestically.
After previewing at 425 Imax theaters last weekend, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol from Paramount expands to over 3,400 theaters Wednesday and should average a solid $9,300 per theater for the three-day weekend (for $31.5 million Friday-Sunday and a total of $65 million since its opening). The fourth Mission: Impossible movie is looking like $180 million domestically. Critics have been very impressed: 94% positive at RottenTomatoes so far, a vast improvement from 61% positive for Mission: Impossible (1996), 57% for M:I 2 (2000), and 70% for M:I 3 (2006).
Opening at about 3,000 theaters Wednesday, the latest attempt to make moviegoers embrace motion capture animation, The Adventures of Tintin, should average a ho-hum $4,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for $13.5 million Friday-Sunday and $20 million Wednesday-Sunday). The film, based on the comic book series by Belgian artist Herge aka Georges Remi, has received 76% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes and should be headed for $90 million domestically in addition to its more impressive $239 million haul so far overseas.
Opening Friday at around 3,000 theaters, We Bought a Zoo starring Matt Damon and from 20th Century Fox should average $4,300 per theater (for $13.0 Friday-Sunday). Zoo is on track for $78 million domestically and has received 71% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes.
Opening Sunday, Christmas Day, War Horse (from DreamWorks and distributed by Disney) and Darkest Hour (from Summit), are more like previews than true opening weekends. They will have a chance to prove themselves during the heavily attended week between Christmas and New Year's, when we will have a much better sense of their performance.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
December 23-25 Positive Weekend Total*
Girl with Dragon Tattoo Sony R 83% $26.5 $150
Adventures of Tintin Par PG 76% $13.5 $ 90
We Bought a Zoo Fox PG 71% $13.0 $ 78
War Horse DW/Dis PG13 75% $ 6.0* $ 95
Darkest Hour Summit PG13 n/a $ 3.0* $ 45
*Opening Sunday, December 25 -- one-day only
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
In addition to M:I 4's large weekend increase (as a result of massive theater count expansion), Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked should have decent declines in their second weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
December 23-25 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Mission: Impossible 4 Par +146% $31.5 $180
Sherlock Holmes 2 WB -43% $22.5 $152
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 Fox -30% $16.2 $140
New Year's Eve WB -44% $ 4.1 $ 40
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum -48% $ 2.2 $271
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $185 million total, ranking 2nd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $132 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $260 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, up 10% from this weekend last year (which was an off week for Christmas weekend).
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.