Movie Box Review

IMMORTALS is claiming the same drop for Sunday as it had on Saturday, so that total may come down in actuals.  Even so, as long as the final amount is over $30M (which it certainly should be), that's a win for Relativity, no matter what the movie's budget actually was.  Immortals also launched widely overseas, including in such important territories as China, the UK, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea, and should hit a solid $36M there.  

JACK AND JILL's $26M opening is the lowest for any Adam Sandler comedy vehicle since The Wedding Singer in 1998.  Sony seems to be counting on a multiple like the one that got Bedtime Stories over $100M in 2008, but this picture will likely be long out of theatres before the lucrative Christmas week bonanza kicks in, and J&J will be one of Sandler's lowest-grossing pictures ever.  Is that meaningful, or did audiences just sense what a stinker this one was?  We won't know until Sandler's next movie opens (I Hate You, Dad in June).

If you want to know what "older-skewing" means, look no further than J. EDGAR:  two-thirds of its audience was over 50 years old.  Although an $11.5M opening is nothing to cheer about, that audience is generally in no rush to get to theatres (it takes a while to maneuver those walkers), and Warners is hoping for a slow build that lasts through the end of the year.  Last year's Hereafter dipped 47% in its second weekend, and that was the end of it, as it only reached $33M in total--J. Edgar will need to hold better than that.

PUSS IN BOOTS had another great hold in its final weekend before kiddie movie competition arrives.  TOWER HEIST's 45% drop seals its fate as a money-loser, unless overseas audiences take to it in a big way.  A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS was, as expected, a one-weekend-and-out proposition, and despite the 3D ticket prices, it may not even get to the $38M grossed by the last picture in the series.  PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 went over $100M, and has a shot at exceeding $108M and becoming the highest-grossing of the franchise.

In limited release, ANONYMOUS plummeted, and is unlikely even to reach $5M on a $35M budget.  MARGIN CALL expanded a bit more to 199 theaters, and should have an average of around $3K.  It could get to $5M in theatrical alone (not counting VOD), which would be a triumph for a picture that cost $3.5M and has spent very little on marketing; in addition, distributor Roadside Attractions has decided to make a well-deserved awards run for the film, so it's all good.  

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost doubled its theatre count to 183 and saw little incremental income with a $2700 average.  LIKE CRAZY widened to 70 theatres at a promising $7500 average.  THE SKIN I LIVE IN increased to 91 theatres at a $3400 average.  TAKE SHELTER seems to have reached its limit (barring a strong showing by Michael Shannon in critics' awards) with a $1600 average at 82.  

The only notable indie opening was Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA (also on VOD and HDMovie Net), which did a very nice $14K in each of 19 theatres.  Werner Herzog's death-penalty documentary INTO THE ABYSS had a $4200 average at 12.  These will likely be dwarfed next week by the arrival of THE DESCENDANTS, which will open in 5 theatres on Wednesday and then go to 27 on Friday.

The tiny 3% drop in PUSS IN BOOTS' second weekend is truly remarkable, and could well lead to studios adopting DreamWorks' strategy in the future of opening an animated movie on Halloween weekend and then having a de facto 2d opening the following week.  (However, the picture is still running $13M below Megamind's 10 day total.)

Despite all the money Universal spent to turn TOWER HEIST into an event, audiences just weren't buying.  The initial overseas numbers of $9.5M in 23 territories aren't terribly promising either.  Interestingly, exit polling showed the audience for the picture skewing rather old; this could be a byproduct of Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy's decisions to spend much of the past decade in family movies--they're now perceived as stars only by little kids (not the audience for this one) and their parents.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS, even with 3D ticket prices, couldn't match the opening of the series' second installment, and with an Adam Sandler movie opening next week, it's unlikely to get much beyond a $30M gross.  Warners would probably have been better off using it as counterprogramming during the real holiday season.

In the absence of compelling new openings, holdovers mostly did very well, although the only Fall opening (besides Puss) likely to get to $100M is PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3.

With the exception of ANONYMOUS (a dull $2500 in each of 513 theatres), most of the weekend's indie expansions were fairly successful.  MARGIN CALL, now in 178 theatres, should be close to $4500 in each, just slightly below its average last weekend.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE went to 98 theatres with about a $5K average, a notch above THE SKIN I LIVE IN, which is in 78 with about $4K in each.  TAKE SHELTER is in a holding pattern with an OK $2K or so in each of 91 theatres.  LIKE CRAZY is still in very limited distribution, but widened to 16 with about a $16K average.

Deadline has preliminary weekend boxoffice numbers, and if they hold, PUSS IN BOOTS will have had a remarkable second weekend.  DreamWorks Animation is reportedly claiming a Saturday number doubling its Friday, which would mean a $34M weekend, virtually even with its opening.  We'll see if this claim survives till Sunday morning, let alone Monday actuals.

Elsewhere, TOWER HEIST should do $25-27M, while it seems that A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS had an even softer Saturday than expected, and may only get to $13M for the weekend.  Holdovers look to be in line with Friday's numbers.

TOWER HEIST hurts Universal on several levels.  It's a big-budget movie (with marketing costs included, the total is likely $200M) in a genre that doesn't necessarily travel well, and it was the studio's big year-end release.  And just to make things worse, next week its pair of Stiller and Murphy have to face off against Adam Sandler's Jack & Jill.  (Incidentally, the idea, floating online, that the movie's $25M opening shouldn't be considered soft because on this particular weekend of the year, other comedies not aimed at families haven't done better, is beyond inane--it seems to assume that moviegoers check the calendar before heading out to the multiplex, saying "Hey, I don't care what's opening--if it's the first weekend in November, I don't want to see any damn non-family comedy!  Everyone knows I only go to those in the second weekend in November or the third weekend in September!")   

PUSS IN BOOTS got the second weekend it needed, with a superb drop of only around 20%.  Not to be churlish, though, but while that's a far better hold than Megamind had last year (37% drop), it's still likely to make for a second weekend lower than Megamind's $29M, and a 10-day gross 20% lower than Megamind's $88M.  (Megamind wound up with $148M in the US.)  Next week Puss also has to contend with the Sandler movie, which is PG and being pitched to a family audience, and the following week a deluge of animated competition begins with Happy Feet 2.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS looks to be on par with the last picture in the series, Guantanamo Bay, which opened with $14.8M (although the Xmas number is boosted by 3D ticket prices).  It's doubtful that Warners expected much more, so presumably these economics work for them.

With little excitement generated by the new arrivals, holdovers again did very well:  other than the post-Halloween PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3, none of the Top 10 appear likely to decline more than 40% (not even THE RUM DIARY).  This developing pattern of strong holdover business may also suggest an aging of the theatrical movie audience, as older audiences have long been likely to wait a week or 2 before heading out to see films.

There weren't any major indie openings this weekend, but several expansions are worth noting.  ANONYMOUS (which isn't technically an "indie," but has the subject matter of one) doubled its theatre count to 513 but only increased its gross by 20%, meaning an anemic per-theatre number that may not reach $2500.  MARGIN CALL continued its quiet success, adding 38 theatres for a total of 178 and holding to a fine per-theatre number over $4K (it continues to be available as well on VOD)--the film now seems capable of reaching $5M or more at the boxoffice, which would make it a solid low-budget success.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost tripled its theatres to 98, and is finding an audience, with a per-theatre that should be at least $4500.  LIKE CRAZY took a smaller leap to 16 houses, and should be a very good $15K in each.

Next weekend is all Adam Sandler, in fact 2 of him, since as everyone now knows, he plays both himself and his twin sister in JACK & JILL. His last non-summer opening was $30M for Just Go With It, so that will presumably be a target number for the picture.  Sandler's competition will be limited to the R-rated 300 rip-off IMMORTALS and Clint Eastwood's very serious J. EDGAR, also an R. 

Friday's preliminary boxoffice, according to the Hollywood Reporter, has the looks of another soft weekend for the major studios.  TOWER HEIST appears to be underperforming, and with a reported $9.5M Friday, may only reach $27M for the weekend.  Since Universal is mostly sitting out the holiday movie season, this would be a disappointing end to their release year.  Meanwhile, PUSS IN BOOTS is rebounding very well from a soft opening, and may only drop 20-25% for the weekend, setting up a much closer than expected battle for 1st place.

The weekend's other new opening, A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS, is languishing even more than expected, perhaps $14-15M for the weekend.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!