Movie Box Review

Everyone wanted to go to the movies on the first full weekend of 2012.

PARAMOUNT:  The studio went straight to its Paranormal Activity playbook to launch THE DEVIL INSIDE (pre-release screenings, months of buzz), and it all worked:  the picture should gross at least $30M in its opening weekend, and with a $1M production cost and relatively minimal marketing, that means serious profit.  No one expects the movie to last long (from all accounts, its abrupt non-ending has patrons all but storming the concession stands), but at those prices, who cares?  Meanwhile, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL held very well (as did virtually everything in the week's Top 10) and could bully its way to $200M in the US.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN had a so-so hold and its US result will be negligible compared to its international success.  HUGO and YOUNG ADULT, though, were on the low end of the weekend's holdovers and are shedding theatres and boxoffice potential.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY expanded to 809 theatres and made its way into the week's Top 10, with a likely $5.5M and the highest per-theatre gross in the group (other than Devil Inside).  For a cerebral thriller, these are great numbers--if the Academy can just see fit to bless it with some nominations, the movie could become a mainstream success.  PARIAH expanded slightly to 11 theatres, and should get to a decent $10-12K per theatre for the weekend.

WEINSTEIN:  THE IRON LADY added a theatre for a total of 5, and that cushioned its Weekend 2 fall to a somewhat misleadingly low 25%.  THE ARTIST held well with only a 22% decline, but its likely $6K average at 172 theatres (adding 5) continues to be underwhelming, and eventually the studio is going to have to expand it beyond a tiny number of art-houses.  The perils of that are shown by MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, in 584 theaters (a loss of 46) with a lousy per-theatre average that won't hit $1500 for the weekend.

FILMDISTRICT:  Angelina Jolie's IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY expanded a bit to 7 theatres, and held pretty well on a per-theatre basis.  Unfortunately, it's holding at a low $4K per theatre.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO had the lowest drop in the Top 10, but that still means a hold at a much lower level than the studio was hoping:  with perhaps $11M for the weekend, the picture will still struggle to get to $100M in the US.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS held fine, and continues on its pace to approach but not match its predecessor's boxoffice.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, not surprisingly, crashed now that its holiday is over, and won't reach $60M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still 2 weeks from national expansion--word of mouth is clearly good, as it had the lowest drop on the board while remaining in 6 theatres.  But its $15K or so per-theatre number is unexciting, and the strategy to keep it out of wide release for a full month is looking like a disaster in the making, unless the Academy notices that it exists.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED had a fine enough hold, and still won't get within $85M of either of the franchise's other entries.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO could make it to $75M in the US, which while far from great, could allow it to hit profit if the picture finds an audience overseas. 

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE isn't looking at much more than $75M in the US unless its probable Oscar nominations can lift it up.  (Wins are considerably less likely.).  THE MUPPETS took a big hit for the weekend, and won't get to $90M.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS continued as it has been, with a mediocre $3500 average in 737 theatres despite all the buzz and awards attention.  It may well win the Golden Globe (it won't face The Artist because of the way the Globes are structured), and the question is whether that and Oscar nominations will spur the film to break out later in the month.  SHAME dropped a few theatres, and is headed for a $4-5K average in 45.

Next week, the Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend brings out a few relatively major releases:  Universal's Mark Wahlberg thriller CONTRABAND (which it's been marketing for months), Fox's Tuskegee Airmen story RED TAILS (from producer George Lucas), and Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah family music drama JOYFUL NOISE, as well as Disney's 3D wide re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST.

As a movie year, 2011 felt, more than anything else, like a reflection of an art and a business in disarray.  Economically, it was a down year and for the major studios, a frightening one:  beyond the special case of the Harry Potter  finale, virtually every Hollywood franchise slipped from prior success in the US, saved from barrels of red ink only because overseas audiences embraced them in record-breaking numbers.  Even the technology of "film" was and continues to be in flux:  more and more motion pictures are shot and distributed on high-definition video that's increasingly difficult for viewers to tell from traditional film stock; US audiences are growing tired, for the most part, of inferior 3D; and the dispute over whether motion-capture performance (like Andy Serkis's Caesar in Rise of the Planet of the Apes) constitutes award-worthy "acting" is growing hotter.  Creatively, too, it seemed like the movies were in a holding pattern, waiting to find out what the next exciting wave would be.  Despite all this, there continued to be films worth seeing and commemorating, and here were the best 10 of them:

1.MARGIN CALL:  A group of affluent men (and one woman) sit in conference rooms in the middle of a deserted Wall Street night talking about money in hushed tones, and it's all somehow post-apocalyptic.  Which is accurate, because they’re watching their economic universe, overnight, go poof--and as in any post-apocalyptic story, the real question is who will survive.  J.C. Chandor’s film, as cunningly structured as a thriller, was the writing/directing debut of the year--not a David Mamet retread or a mere financial meltdown docudrama, but a humane, eloquent and ruthlessly smart story about modern capitalism and the way it reflects human nature.  The fact that the Screen Actors Guild didn’t even nominate the actors, headed by Kevin Spacey, Jeremy Irons and producer Zachary Quinto, for Best Ensemble tells you all you’ll ever need to know about the SAG Awards.  

2. SHAME:  Steve McQueen’s NC-17 drama revolved around a sex addict, and certainly wasn’t for everyone.  But  beneath the (unerotic) sex was the story of a brother and sister being torn apart by their own private demons.  McQueen, in complete mastery of the art form, refused to provide easy explanations or a therapeutic happy ending, and Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan supplied 2 of the most savagely wrenching performances of the decade. 

3. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE:  Unaccountably, the most controversial and divisive movie of the year, apparently because it dared to touch, in its apolitical and fictional way, on what turned out to be the third rail of American popular culture:   9/11.  Stephen Daldry’s filmmaking and Eric Roth's script (adapted from Jonathan Safran Foer's novel) superbly balanced sentimentality, quirkiness and profound heartbreak, and the first-time actor Thomas Horn managed to dominate a supporting cast that included Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and the extraordinary Max Von Sydow., whose silent performance outshone anything in the insanely overrated The Artist

4. CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE:  Hollywood's most pleasant surprise of the year, a romantic comedy drama that was actually romantic, comic and dramatic—sometimes even all at once.  Glenn Ficarra and John Fuqua nimbly tapdanced the shifting tones of Dan Fogelman’s marvelous script (which also had the year’s best third-act surprise), and the letter-perfect ensemble included Steve Carell, Julianne Moore, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Marisa Tomei and Analeigh Tipton.

5. WIN WIN:  Tom McCarthy writes and directs movies about ordinary human beings with the grace, understanding and complexity of a great American novelist.  Win Win, about the ethical struggles of a high school wrestling coach, was smarter, tougher and yards more perceptive than The Descendants, but since both are distributed by the same studio (Fox Searchlight, also responsible for burying the very fine Margaret), McCarthy's script and the beautiful performances by Paul Giamatti and Amy Ryan (who should be forced—bodily, if necessary—to play a couple at least once every couple of years) are being ignored

6. RANGO:  A strange and wonderful animated movie from director Gore Verbinski, writer John Logan and star/muse Johnny Depp that was like Pixar on acid:  deranged, inspired comedy about spaghetti westerns, heroism, Chinatown, existentialism, the meaning of identity if you're an actual chameleon, and a half-dozen other topics, all populated by crazy-looking reptiles on gorgeous landscapes.

7. MONEYBALL:  Michael Lewis’s book about abstract theories of how a low-spending baseball team remade the rules of drafting and trading for players had no business even being a movie.  But with master screenwriters Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, director Bennett Miller and a cast headed by the year's most unlikely comedy team, Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, the result was funny, bracingly intelligent, and often dramatically thrilling.

8. THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO:  Even though audiences were thoroughly familiar with Stieg Larsson's pageturning potboiler and the solid Swedish film adaptation, David Fincher made it his gripping own, with the help of screenwriter Zaillian (again), a breakout performance by Rooney Mara, excellent support from Daniel Craig, Stellan Skarsgard and the rest of the cast, and a fabulously gifted technical crew that included cinematographer Jeff Cronenweth and composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

9.  MIDNIGHT IN PARIS:  Never, ever count Woody Allen out.  At the age of 75, after more than 40 feature films and widely believed to have outlasted his boxoffice prime, he came back with, if not one of his very best, a richly entertaining and even wise bauble that became the biggest hit of his career (if you don’t adjust for inflation), as breezy and charming as it was clever.

10.  THE HELP:  Tate Taylor’s adaptation of the best-selling novel was no triumph of the filmmaking art, and it’s perfectly fair to criticize the movie's oversimplifications and unapologetic sentimentality.  But months later, it still stands as one of the most engrossing and narratively satisfying dramas of the year , and its cast headed by Viola Davis, Emma Stone, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastain couldn’t have been better.

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Boxoffice Report, New Year's Day wasn't the bonanza the studios were expecting it to be.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL's Sunday increase was less than half of the 33% projected, and it's likely to fall another 15-20% today, giving it a bit over $140M in total and diminishing chances to hit $200M in the end.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN was up only 6% on Sunday and is projecting negligible change today, which would put it just over $50M and unlikely to hit $75M.  YOUNG ADULT had only 2/3 of the 48% bump it was forecasting Sunday, and with a 20+% drop today, it'll be at $12M and in serious danger of never seeing $20M in total.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was up only 7% Sunday (instead of the 23% forecast), and with at least a 20% drop today, it'll be at $137M and hoping to get above $170M total.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, as expected, is done, with a 20% fall on Sunday and more than that today for a $47M total that will be lucky to get above $50M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE was one of the few titles with some good news--a 55% Sunday increase and a small projected 16% drop today--but still, an $18.5K 4-day holiday average in 6 theatres is nowhere near where this movie wanted to be.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED really faltered--instead of gaining 32% on Sunday, it fell another 6%, and is projecting little increase today.  That'll get it to $98M, with little prospect of getting much higher than $120M (almost $100M less than its predecessors).  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had twin 14% drops yesterday and today, and is looking at $44M for now, and perhaps $65M in all.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE didn't go up 19% on Sunday, as the studio projected--it went down 27%.  Nonetheless, the very bullish mouse-heads are predicting an 18% increase today.  If that comes true, the picture would have $45M in the bank and be headed to $75-80M (with Oscars as a wild card factor), but given the giant overestimate yesterday, all the numbers have to be in pencil at this point.  Disney is also predicting a huge 42% increase for THE MUPPETS despite an 8% decline yesterday, and we'll see about that one, too.

SONY:  The studio's projection of a 59% increase for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO yesterday sounded overoptimistic to the point of being unbalanced, and it was--the picture went up less than half that amount, only 24%.  The 20% fall estimated for today may be more reasonable, and would leave the picture at $60M, with dwindling chances of seeing a $100M total.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS was hoping to hold even on Sunday, but it went down 17%, with another 19% expected today.  That'll leave it at $40M, with a $5600 average over the 4-day holiday that's nothing special.  SHAME, on the other hand, had a terrific 83% increase on Sunday, and should decline 25% today.  It's still struggling, though, with a $4900 average in only 55 theatres over the long weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE ARTIST went down 2% instead of rising 20% on Sunday, and is forecasting another 20% drop today, giving it under a $10K average in only 167 theatres over the long weekend.  THE IRON LADY, though, held with an excellent $70K average in its 4-theatre launch.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN continued to sag with a $1900 average in 630 theatres over 4 days.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY wasn't quite where it looked to be (a $25K average over 4 days rather than $28K), but that's still enormously encouraging, a higher per-theatre number in 57 theatres than anything else has in more than 4.  PARIAH, in only 4 theatres, couldn't do better than $16K average over 4 days.

SONY CLASSICS:  The subtitled Iranian A SEPARATION is off to a very strong start with a $27K average in 3 theatres.  

With one startling exception and a couple of smaller ones, the holiday crop of movies declined on Saturday and are expected to recover on New Year's Day.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL went down 18% and is expected to rise 33% today.  It should hit $142M by the end of the 4-day holiday weekend.   THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is up and down a more orderly 23%, and should be at about $52M with the extra day.  HUGO was a little more stable, down only 7% but also up only 15%.  It should be just a touch below $50M by the end of Monday.  YOUNG ADULT went down 24% Saturday but is looking for a very large 48% increase on Sunday--even if that happens, it won't hit $13M by the end of the holidays.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was down 16% and up 23%, and should be just under $140M coming out of the holidays.  NEW YEAR'S EVE had its last burst of audience interest on Dec. 31, and is one of the only movies expected to decline on Sunday.  It still won't be at $50M after Monday, and its shelf-life is now done.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE went down 22% and may only rise 10% on Sunday, giving it an unimpressive $17K average in 6 theatres for the 3-day weekend that should rise a bit to $20K with Monday included.  

DISNEY:  What got into WAR HORSE's hay on Saturday?  With almost every other picture falling as per seasonal pattern, and after an unexciting week at the boxoffice, Steven Spielberg's epic weirdly went up 20%, and expects to rise another 19% on Sunday.  It's hard to know what happened, but no doubt Disney and DreamWorks are hoping it's a harbinger of things to come.  The studio's only other picture in the market is THE MUPPETS, nearing the end of its run with perhaps $85M in total.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED lost 32% on Saturday and should make up most of it on Sunday.  It should just get to $100M with Monday included.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had a less bumpy ride, down only 7% on Saturday but also expecting a much smaller increase today, on its way to perhaps $47M after Monday.  

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO went down a standard 21% on Saturday, but is anticipating, for no clear reason, a whopping 59% increase on Sunday.  If that actually happens, it could be at $62M after Monday, although an ultimate gross of $100M may still be a stretch without some awards attention.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS had a good Saturday with a 15% increase, and is expecting to simply hold steady on Sunday--it should hit $40M with Monday included, but its $6K average for the long weekend is still only so-so.  In limited release, SHAME fell a heavy 38% on Saturday but is projecting a huge 65% Sunday increase--even if it achieves that, a $5K average over the 4-day weekend in only 55 theatres is, well, flaccid.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  All its films are in limited release.  THE ARTIST, in 167 theatres, is still very mild, reporting a 13% increase on Saturday and 20% more Sunday, which makes for a 4-day average around $10K.  THE IRON LADY is off to a great start but in only 4 theatres--down 15% then up 20%, it could hit a per-theatre average of $70K over 4 days.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, the company's widest release at 630 theatres, is still a picture no one wants to see.  Even with a small 6% drop on Saturday and a 20% Sunday increase, its 4-day average will probably be around $2K.

FOCUS:  The likely $28K 4-day average for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY in 55 theatres is very impressive for a 4th weekend--now the question is when and how far the studio will expand it.  PARIAH's likely $15K average in 4 days and 4 theatres doesn't show much promise.

SONY CLASSICS:  A SEPARATION is off to a good start, with what should be a $25+K average in 3 theatres.  

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Boxoffice Report, Friday's numbers were solid but lacking any breakout excitement.  First, let's take a quick look at the limited-run Oscar hopefuls:

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein):  Meryl-Streep-as-Margaret-Thatcher came roaring into the awards mix with a terrific $19K average in 4 theatres that should lead it to a $75-80K average over the 4 day holiday weekend.  The film's appeal outside big-city art houses is questionable, though, so here's one of several cases where Harvey Weinstein will have to play the expansion game very carefully.

A SEPARATION (Sony Classics):  This excellent Iranian import, a front-runner for the Foreign-Language Film Oscar, started with a very good $6K average in 3 theatres that should get it to around $25K per-theatre over the holiday weekend.

PARIAH (Focus):  Bounced back a bit from Thursday's slump, but its $3500 average in 4 theatres isn't a great start, and it may struggle to reach a $15K average for the weekend.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Continues to be mediocre, with a $2400 average in 167 theatres that won't hit $10K by Jan 2.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Continues to hold very well, with a $6K average on Friday in 55 theatres that should reach $25K over the holiday weekend.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  Not doing better than OK, with a $1500 average on Friday in 55 theatres that might reach $6K for the weekend.  

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict)  The same numbers as Shame ($1500 average Friday for a $6K weekend), but much worse because it's only at 2 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Harvey is 0-for-3 in the breakout hit category, with a dismal $500 average in 630 theatres that won't get past $2K for the weekend.

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  The Oscar front-runner no one seems to care about.  It only had a $1500 average in 758 theatres on Friday, and won't get higher than a $6K average for the weekend.  That will put it at $40M, in serious danger of dropping screens by the time the Oscar nominations are announced in late January.  At that point, it's going to be difficult to spark widespread excitement over a picture that's already been playing as a presumptive nominee for 2 full months.

And at the major studios:

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL is the one smash hit of the season, even though it won't be the highest-grossing of the series.  With even bigger numbers pouring in overseas ($200M already, with plenty more to come), announcement of a 5th chapter in the series should be coming any time.  However, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (which Sony distributes overseas) is a major disappointment that will barely recoup its enormous US marketing cost, placing the planned franchise in jeopardy.  The very expensive HUGO, despite its critical adoration, is mostly done with $50M total gross--even an expected Oscar nomination probably won't get it much farther.  And YOUNG ADULT has found no traction at all--the reviews were weaker than expected, and with only $12.5M in the bank by the end of the holidays and an anticipated holiday average under $3K in only 987 theatres, even Charlize Theron's possible Best Actress nomination won't convince more theatres to play it.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS will underperform its predecessor, but a $170-180M gross isn't bad (it might be more accurate to say the first picture overperformed, all things considered).  It's only played in a handful of foreign territories so far, and the results there will determine whether the expensive franchise is worth continuing.  NEW YEAR'S EVE is a flop, although not a very expensive one.  The big disappointment thus far is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which hit a perfect storm of bitterly mixed reviews, some bad scheduling choices and a faltering awards campaign.  This weekend it's headed for a $25K average in 6 theatres, which is OK but not at all the event that the studio needed to propel the film into wide release later in January.

FOX:  ALVIN THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED will be the highest-grossing kids' movie of the season, turn a profit and very possibly justify another installment--but its almost 50% drop from the other films in the series is fairly disastrous, and turns what had been a cash cow into a risk.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO will need help from uncertain foreign revenues if it's to avoid red ink.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO isn't the flop of the season, but it may be the biggest disappointment.  Was it the favorable-but-not-enthusiastic reviews?  The dour tone of the marketing?  An overdose of the franchise, after the successful Swedish films and months of publicity?  In any case, it's going to be hard to justify spending $100M on the sequel--and Fincher, who's perpetually in demand, may well decide to bow out.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, though--that's an (undeserved) flop.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE is sparking very little interest, and at this point seems unlikely to reach $100M despite very aggressive marketing, even with the anticipated Oscar nominations.  It's ironic that since DreamWorks joined Disney, their one smash hit has been the completely unexpected The Help.  This also leads to what could be a very ticklish internal political issue:  does The Help now have a better chance at winning the Oscar than War Horse?  And will Spielberg allow his pet project to fall to second place in the campaigning strategy?  Meanwhile THE MUPPETS was a nice-sized hit due to its relatively modest budget, but it's far from clear that there's a franchise there.  The combined grosses of Disney's 2 holiday pictures won't reach the boxoffice for 2010's Tangled alone--combined with the disappointing US responses to Cars 2 and Pirates 4, it's been an off-year for the studio.

UNIVERSAL:  Sat out the holiday season entirely.  They've been spending a lot of money marketing the Mark Wahlberg action picture CONTRABAND all month, though, giving it the kind of weeks-long push that normally goes to much bigger pictures.  We'll find out in a couple of weeks if the strategy made sense.

As schools close and vacations begin, a lot of money is about to flood into Hollywood for about 2 blissful weeks.  But not enough to make up for the rest of a doleful year.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  With a studio estimate that just barely managed to nudge above $40M--and needed an extraordinarily low 28% projected Sunday drop to get there--tomorrow's least surprising development would be an actual weekend number that starts with "39."  That cosmetic change aside, this is yet another big ($125M + $150M in worldwide marketing) budget Hollywood product that will need foreign aid.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  With 3 major family movies opening over the next week (Tintin, We Bought A Zoo and War Horse), Alvin may be chip out of luck.  The picture did manage an additional $14M overseas in a few markets.  (And Tintin is already done overseas, which could help beyond these shores.)

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE  GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  The one success story of the weekend.  Paramount could hardly have hoped for a better start, and the idea of staging an "event" opening only at Imax and other large-format theatres was inspired (it didn't hurt that Warners gave the opening a Dark Night Rises boost).  Add to that a terrific $68M initial launch in 36 overseas territories.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  On the other hand, the same studio was unable to create any excitement over its holiday movie for grown-ups, and the film is in serious danger of a quick fade.

CARNAGE (Sony Classics):  A $17K average in 5 NY/LA theatres just doesn't cut it in this, the most crowded season of the year for prestige titles.

EXPANSIONS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) had a small but very successful push into 16 theatres, with a robust $28K average.  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) broadened its run to 17 theatres with a far less impressive $9K average result.  SHAME (Fox Searchlight) faltered to a $6K average in 51 theatres.  The most important expansion of the season will happen on Friday, though, when Weinstein finally moves THE ARTIST to 170 movie-houses (and also brings MY WEEK WITH MARILYN to around 400).

HOLDOVERS:  NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners) held fairly well with a 43% drop from last week, but the opening was so low that it doesn't matter much.  The bottom dropped out of THE SITTER (20th) with an unsurprising 55% plummet.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1 (Summit) is pacing below New Moon, and will be the lowest grossing chapter of the saga since the original Twilight.  The family trio of HUGO (Paramount), ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony) and THE MUPPETS (Disney) are tightly bunched in the $3.4-3.6M weekend area, and about to be assailed by new competition--even though Hugo is getting generous awards attention, that hasn't pulled the film above the crowd, although its likely Oscar nominations should keep it in the market deeper into 2012 than the others.  J. EDGAR (Warners) lost half its theatres and is essentially done with a $35M total.  MARGIN CALL (Roadside) passed the $5M mark, putting it ahead of most of the fall's higher-profile indie competition.

The last 2 weeks of the year will almost certainly bring better news for Hollywood, for reasons of tonnage alone:  there are 6 wide openings to come next week, compared to only 3 in the final weeks of 2010.  But for now, the stocking-stuffer of choice is coal.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  The point here isn't a potential 20% domestic shortfall on one movie that may well be made up overseas, where the market is booming for big-budget action.  The scary thing, not just for Warners but for all the studios, is that with increasingly rare exceptions, the US audience seems to be less interested than it used to be in the giant product that's been the cornerstone of the industry for more than 3 decades.  Other than Harry Potter (a special case, as the 8th and final chapter in a continuing saga), virtually every franchise entry this year has underperformed its predecessors domestically.  Will those ticket-buyers come back?  We'll find out in 2012, when huge additions to the Marvel, Batman, Spider-Man, Twilight, Lord of the Rings and other franchises are rolled out.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Ironically, all the family movies that crashed into each other over Thanksgiving weekend so as to avoid this presumed juggernaut could have spaced themselves out a little.  The moment seems to have passed for the squeaky threesome (6 if you count the Chipettes)--although, again, Mitch Metcalf's anticipated $140M US gross, combined with homevideo (people still buy DVDs for kids) and overseas boxoffice, will keep this franchise profitable.

MISSION:  IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Some good news, albeit loaded with asterisks.  A $24K weekend theatre average in 423 theatres is a terrific number... but by confining itself to Imax and other large-format screens, the studio boosted the ticket price considerably.  And don't forget those Dark Knight Rises extended trailers in the 70mm houses.  Nonetheless, an excellent start for an industry that needs one.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  Last time around, Paramount unveiled Jason Reitman's Up In the Air in the fall at Toronto and other festivals, and felt like the movie had peaked too soon and left potential awards on the table when it finally opened in December.  So this time, they kept Reitman's Young Adult under wraps until awards season.  Unfortunately, the move seems to have backfired:  apart from some (well-deserved) attention to Charlize Theron, the movie is getting limited acclaim, and with a likely $3200 average in about 1000 theatres, it may be doomed by New Year's.

CARNAGE (Sony Classics):  Despite impeccable credentials (Polanski, the Foster/Winslet/Walz/Reilly combo, Tony Award-winning source material) and some strong reviews where it's supposed to count, the film is headed for a deeply unexciting $17.5K average at 5 NY/LA theatres.

HOLDOVERS:  NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners) should slide less than 50%, but that's not nearly enough to save it.  THE SITTER (20th), as expected for its genre, will have a deeper slump and head for the exits.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) continues to do no better than OK; despite a great deal of awards love this week, its per-theatre average will be around $3500.  HUGO (Paramount) and ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony) are both holding well, but at very low numbers, around $1200-1400 per theatre, and THE MUPPETS (Disney) took a bigger fall to hit the same neighborhood.  The Weinstein Company continues to play a very slow hand with MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and THE ARTIST, neither of which expanded this week, and had modest per-theatre dips.  (Both will go wider on Dec. 23.)   Fox Searchlight did expand SHAME from 21 to 51 theatres, and as a result, the per-theatre average will drop sharply to around $6K.  

Next week, as noted, the holiday avalanche arrives.  On Wednesday, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) and THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount) open for their very different audiences, along with the wide expansion of MI4.  Those are followed on Friday by WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th).  Then Christmas Day brings WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) and Summit's counterprogramming THE DARKEST HOUR.  Plenty for families, with a couple of dark dramas for the adults.  Will it work?  Stay tuned.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Hardly any bump from Saturday night couples meant about as low an opening as anyone could have reasonably imagined.  Even with some play during Christmas week, the picture may struggle to earn more than its $56M production budget (which is separate from a likely $100M+ worldwide marketing budget).  After J. Edgar and this, Warners has to hope Sherlock Holmes 2 opens big next week, and then wait for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to arrive.

THE SITTER (Fox):  That $10M estimate may lose a digit tomorrow, but it could have been a lot worse, considering how bad the movie is.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus):  A $75K average at 4 theatres is great news.  The question for Focus now is how quickly to expand.  They're going to be hoping for some attention, especially for Gary Oldman, from the Golden Globe nominations this week.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  $40K average in 8 theatres is good, it's fine... but it's not quite what it should have been, for a movie with this accessible a sell.  If reviews can't drive audiences in the biggest cities, what's going to happen when it goes wide?  We'll find out soon enough, as next week's planned expansion is to 1000 houses.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1 (Summit):  4th weekend of $7.9M was virtually even with New Moon's, and it's on target to end up with a slightly lower total.  The difference:  because Summit had to renegotiate the actor deals on Breaking Dawn (because the original deals didn't allow for a 2-part finale), the budget was way higher this time, meaning that a slightly lower gross means much less profit.  Still, don't cry for Summit, they're doing just fine.

THE MUPPETS (Disney):  With Alvin & Those Chipmunks crawling into town on Friday, the family movie train is moving on, and its $7.1M weekend suggests the Muppets probably won't get near a $100M total.  The picture was made on a budget, but a franchise may not be in Disney's long-term plans.

HUGO (Paramount):  A 19% drop, when you've increased your theatre count by 30%, isn't encouraging.  And at 2600 theatres with a $2350 average, the release can't go too much wider.  Also not good:  Scorsese is picking up some directing honors, but Hugo didn't do too well in today's tally from the LA, Boston and NY Online critics.  (Although it was named to AFI's Top 10 list.)

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  Although at 876 theatres, it still has plenty of room to grow, the $5500 per-theatre average could come steeply down as the film adds locations.  The movie increased its count by 50% this weekend, and basically could only hold even for its weekend total.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony):  A really excellent drop of only 11% despite the loss of a few theatres, but with a $6.6M weekend, the movie is still going to struggle to get much past a total gross of $50M or so.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Held steady at 244 theatres, managing only a $3200 average.  Since it's categorized as a "Comedy" for Golden Globe purposes, this should be a happy week for the film.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  An $18K average at 16 theatres just isn't all that great.  However, it won both the Boston and NY Online awards today, with more love to come this week from the Globes, etc, so still very much at the start of its campaign.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  A $13K average at 21 also isn't great, but Shame is a much more challenging film to market.  Fassbender won in LA and was runner-up at NY Online, which is the kind of attention the film crucially needs.

A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics): No real awards gold yet, and the picture is holding at 4 locations, still doing a good $20K in each.

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope):  Critical adoration of Tilda Swinton won this $24K in one NY theatre.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warner Bros):  So much for that franchise.  New Year's was expected to have a softer start than Valentine's Day, which opened on a holiday weekend that included the titular day itself.  But there's "soft" and then there's a 65% decline from Valentine's opening day.  New Year's will have a longer playing time than Valentine's did, probably hanging in a large number of theatres for 4 weeks.  The trouble is that by the time holiday moviegoing seriously begins, New Year's will already be out of gas, unless it gets a word-of-mouth Christmas miracle.  The picture should still turn a profit for Warners, but don't hold your breath for "Arbor Day."

THE SITTER (20th) :  And the answer to whether Jonah Hill can open a movie on his own is... no.  The picture was low-budget, so Fox won't get hurt by it, but the attempt to make some quick money by counterprogramming the season's franchises and family fare didn't work.  The good news for Hill is that his next pictures are the high-concept 21 Jump Street, and Neighborhood Watch, which puts him back into an ensemble where Ben Stiller and Vince Vaughn will be doing the heavy lifting.

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  Increasing theatre count by 50% didn't yield much payoff:  the likely $5K average for the weekend is lower than what Juno ($10.5K), Black Swan ($8700) and The King's Speech ($6500) did in parallel spots of their releases.  Descendants, and Searchlight, will be hoping for some big critical help next week, as the Los Angeles Film Critics, Golden Globes and American Film Institute all announce their choices.

HUGO (Paramount):  Very similarly, while a big 800-theatre increase will keep the weekend total fairly stable, the per-theatre number is crashing to a very mediocre $2300.  Things will only get tougher as major holiday competition starts to flood in, so the critics will again need to help out.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  New Year's Eve hit BREAKING DAWN PART 1 (Summit) right in its target audience, and after running day-to-day ahead of New Moon all week, on Friday BD1 went back down to virtually even.  It now seems clear that the picture won't reach New Moon's $296M total.  Meanwhile, audiences finally discovered ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony)... 3 weeks late.  It's heading for an excellent 15% drop, but the numbers are already so low that the final total will be more of a moral victory than a financial one.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Off to a great start, with a likely $80K average in 4 NY/LA theatres, one of the year's highest.  Of course, the question is how broad the appeal of the film's labyrinthine plot and low-key storytelling style can get.  

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  A somewhat less impressive likely $40K average at 8 theatres, particularly because the presence of Charlize Theron and the curdled comedy genre were supposed to make this one an easier sell.  The question isn't whether Theron will be nominated for Actress awards where as long as there are multiple nominees, but whether, in this year of Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams and Viola Davis, she can actually win anything.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  Almost doubled its theatre count to 21, and will still fall for the weekend, with a good but not great $13K average.  This film is the poster child for needing some award and nominations help.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  A very, very slow expansion boat for this speciality item.  It added 11 theatres for a total of 17, and should have a fairly solid $17K average.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Held at 244 theatres, and still not setting marquees on fire with a likely $3K average.  

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Running $8M below New Moon at the parallel place in their runs, but with a slower rate of decline (at least until New Year's Eve opens next week).  New Moon earned another $41M after the post-Thanksgiving weekend to end up at $296M in the US; Breaking Dawn 1 could make another $45-50M, which would put it in the same place.

THE MUPPETS:  A disastrously bad second weekend, its 62% the worst decline of the Top 12.  It'll have one more weekend to control the family-film market before Alvin & the Chipmunks arrives, but unless international is strong (so far the film is in only 3 small markets outside the US), this isn't looking like sequel fodder.

HUGO:  So far the unorthodox strategy of starting with a mid-level number of theatres and gradually adding more as awards pour in--is working OK, with a relatively small 33% decline and a per-theatre number almost equal to Breaking Dawn 1's.  The question is how far it can be pushed as holiday movies continue to arrive, both for families and adults.  (And the bigger question is how the film's enormous production cost can ever be earned back, but that's the studio's problem.)

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  Word of mouth is clearly good, with a 39% fall from last weekend, but the movie just has nowhere to go--it's already in 3376 theatres and has an anemic $2200 average.  Opening in the flood of family movies over Thanksgiving doomed this one (although holding it to do battle against Alvin wouldn't have worked any better).

THE DESCENDANTS:  Playing the platform release game of increasing theatre count each week so the weekend total stays high while per-theatre shrinks.  Its $9K average in 574  is around the same average Black Swan had, but in a wider release of 959 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  The Weinstein Company, as is its wont, is apparently going after other awards hopefuls with guns blazing, but they have zero to boast about:  Marilyn, with no awards help so far, has a flat $4800 average at 244 theatres (that average isn't much better than what Hugo is doing in more than 7x as many theatres, and it's far below Descendants' average in more than twice as many).

SHAME:  A good but not great $36K average in 10 theatres.

THE ARTIST:  Increased its theatres by 50% by adding 2 in San Francisco, and could only hold even with last weekend, leaving it with a $34K average in 6 that was lower than the NC-17 Shame's average in 10.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  J. EDGAR fell 52% and seems unlikely to get beyond $40M unless DiCaprio starts winning some awards.  Sony greatly expanded the runs of MONEYBALL, THE IDES OF MARCH and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS to keep them alive in awards season, and saw per-theatre numbers of $600-900.  MARGIN CALL continues to show real tenacity at the boxoffice with a mere 23% drop--it should get to $5M in US theatres, and that's on top of $2-3M in VOD revenues, very good numbers for a picture with a low budget and very little paid advertising.  LIKE CRAZY, THE SKIN I LIVE IN and MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE all seem likely to stall out at abour $3-3.5M unless they get some awards help.

The post-Thanksgiving weekend is usually brutal, and this year is no exception.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  The likely 60% drop from last weekend is as expected for this very front-loaded series.  Right now the film is running $9M below New Moon's 2009 total at the same point in its run, but Breaking Dawn 1 is losing steam a bit more slowly, so depending on how much damage New Year's Eve does next weekend, Breaking Dawn 1 may end up more or less in the same place--which is to say slightly below $300M.

THE MUPPETS:  This 60% drop is less welcome (last year Tangled, coming from a much higher Thanksgiving weekend, fell only 55% in its 2d weekend).  With just one more week of open space until Alvin & The Dreaded Chipmunks descend on the market, this may not be the stuff of franchises.

HUGO:  Paramount's unorthodox release strategy added more than 500 theatres this weekend, and the film and its director also received top honors from the National Board of Review.  The result is a much softer drop than its family-movie comrades, and a per-theatre number that will be right around Breaking Dawn 1's.  It's still far from clear that Hugo can maneuver its way to anything close to profitability, with a production cost reported at $150-170M plus that much again in marketing--but this is the path it would have to take to get there.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  Sadly, the odd family movie out this season.  Its likely $50M US gross won't even pay for its marketing, much less the $100+ production cost.  Because of its specifically Christmas nature, the picture also won't be able to get any meaningful homevideo revenues until the 2012 holiday season, which will leave a lot of red ink on Sony's books for most of next year.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Increased its theatre count by another 30% to 574, so its weekend total won't be too far off last week.  The $8500 per-theatre average is good, but it's below the $8700 that Black Swan was doing last year when it reached 959 theatres.  What Descendants really needs is a better showing in the upcoming critics' lists and awards than it had last week, a la Natalie Portman's ride last year.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  Held at 244 theatres, and while its projected $4700 average isn't remarkable, it's relatively steady compared to the other post-holiday drops on the board.  A bigger potential problem is that Michelle Williams didn't win either of the Best Actress awards last week, and her success is the key to this film's.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  In an attempt to get some pre-homevideo awards season energy going, Sony expanded both MONEYBALL and THE IDES OF MARCH back to around 1000 theatres.  Neither attracted much interest, and won't get above $500-600K for the weekend.  Other films in the market continued on their previous paths.

INDIES:  SHAME is headed for a $35-40K average in 10 theatres.  That number is very strong, but below the recent levels of other high-profile indies, including The Descendants' $41K average in 29 theatres and The Skin I Live In's $51K in 6.  Of course, some of that is attributable to Shame's NC-17 rating, but if the picture can't sell out houses in the biggest cities, that may not be a great sign for its future.  THE ARTIST increased from 4 to 6 theatres by adding San Francisco to its NY/LA runs, and its weekend average will be $30-35K. Considering that Artist, despite its silent-movie, black & white style, is far more accessible and easily likable than Shame--not to mention that Artist won this week's NY Film Critics Circle awards--that number is a little softer than one might have expected.  

Next weekend, NEW YEAR'S EVE will head straight for what's left of the Breaking Dawn 1 audience, while THE SITTER could make some quick money because there's nothing in the market right now remotely aimed for its R-rated comedy crowd.  The indie floodgates will also start to fall, with limited runs of award hopefuls TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, YOUNG ADULT and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN, not to mention Madonna's W.E.--which technically is also an award hopeful, if the subject is costume or production design.

Los Angelenos will have a chance to get advance looks at some of this year's Oscar candidates at the AFI Film Festival, which begins in just about 2 weeks.  Today the Festival announced the Gala and Special Screenings, which typically make up the bulk of the high-profile titles, and they include quite a few films featured at this fall's film festivals.

The festival begins with the world premiere of Clint Eastwood's J. EDGAR, and other Galas include THE ARTIST, Polanski's CARNAGE, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and SHAME, as well as Luc Besson's THE LADY, which premiered at Toronto.  Special Screenings include, among others, Ralph Fiennes' film of CORIOLANUS, The Duplass Brothers' JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME, the Dardenne Brothers' THE KID WITH A BIKE, Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, and Wim Wenders' documentary PINA, as well as RAMPART, BUTTER, I MELT WITH YOU and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN.  (The festival hasn't yet announced its closing-night presentaiton.)

Veterans of the AFI Festival's "free ticket" policy know that actually getting one of those tickets can be a chore--and sometimes the theatres are overbooked, meaning that even having a ticket is no guarantee of admission.  The Festival does, however, include a great many films worth the effort.

Check out SHOWBUZZDAILY'S STATUETTE STAKES roll of Awards contenders:

     PART I

Today we wind up SHOWBUZZDAILY's introduction of this year's most promising Oscar contenders (see Part 1 here and Part 2 here, looking at those that could be called Also Eligible--they're hoping just to get in the race.

Also Eligible

SHAME (Fox Searchlight - Dec. 2)

Good Bet: Nobody who's seen this very serious film about sexuality will forget it anytime soon.  Michael Fassbinder is art-house flavor of the month, Carey Mulligan is an awards magnet, and the NC-17 rating guarantees plenty of attention.

Bad Bet: A difficult, polarizing piece of work that may not be up the Academy's alley.

LIKE CRAZY (Paramount - Oct. 28)

Good Bet: This year's Sundance darling.  One of the very rare films to tackle the ups and downs of romance believably.

Bad Bet:  Sundance was a looooong time ago.  A lot of people hate the ending.  Perhaps because it doesn't have subtitles, some critics consider it insubstantial.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  General acclaim for Michelle Williams as Monroe.  Harvey moved it from early November to super-competitive Thanksgiving weekend, so he's not lacking in confidence.

Bad Bet:  Feels like more of an acting category push than Best Picture.

THE IDES OF MARCH (Sony - Released Oct. 7)

Good Bet:  A weighty subject, strong cast, and everyone loves Clooney.

Bad Bet:  The Descendants will get the bulk of the Clooney love.  The reviews were favorable but not raves.  Although its low budget should make it profitable, the picture doesn't seem to have ignited the zeitgeist.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict - Dec. 23)

Good Bet: Director Angelina Jolie guarantees huge press attention.  Subjects don't come more serious than sexual politics amid the carnage of Bosnia.

Bad Bet:  Buzz says a heavy, depressing sit with lots of script issues.  Shame may steal the season's sexuality thunder.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount/DreamWorks - Dec. 21)

Good Bet:  Spielberg and Peter Jackson blazing new trails in fantasy and technology!  Initial reviews from overseas (where it opens 2 months earlier) are raves.

Bad Bet:  War Horse exists.  At least in the trailer, those damn motion capture humans still look creepy.

ANONYMOUS (Sony - Oct. 28)

Good Bet:  Shakespeare In Love was very much the Academy's cup of tea.

Bad Bet:  This one lacks the romance, the humor and the charming lead performers.  Roland Emmerich as an Oscar nominee?

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th Century Fox - Dec. 23)

Good Bet:  A crowd-pleaser from Cameron Crowe that could put his career back on track.  Star performances from Matt Damon, Scarlett Johansson and Thomas Haden Church.  Look, adorable animals!

Bad Bet: Buzz is that it's better than Marley & Me, but not by as much as you'd think.  You need to read the credits to realize it's a Crowe picture.

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) (Warner Bros - Released July 15)

Good Bet:  The well-received final chapter of the most successful movie franchise in history.  The last Lord of the Rings bathed in Oscar glory.

Bad Bet:  The entire LOTR saga was directed by Peter Jackson, so it felt like a more unified artistic work.  Timing is no ally:  the LOTR films opened at Christmas, and their phenomenal success unfolded just as the Academy was making its choices; Hallows will be out on homevideo in a few weeks.  Warners has J. Edgar and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close on its Oscar plate.  The filmmakers will just have to be content with their billions.

Although Fox Searchlight didn't actually acquire Steve McQueen's film Shame until last Saturday, in a sense the marketing campaign for the film began when the producers made it clear that the film would not be edited for US release, and would be distributed with an NC-17 rating. This quickly became the most memorable fact about the film, and will lead to some disappointed audiences when it opens in December. Not because there's a lack of sex in Shame--there's plenty, although none of it is remotely hardcore--but because the film isn't at al interested in eroticism. Instead, it's a deadly serious account of a man drowning in his need for emotionless sex.

Brandon (Michael Fassbender) is an executive at a blank-faced NY firm, and he's good at his job, but really all he cares about are those moments when he can lose himself in sex. Specifically, in anonymous sex, with hookers or one-night-stands. (When he can't actually have sex, he watches pornography.) He's not a man who has relationships and then cheats; he wants no part--and indeed cannot function--in any relationship that requires feeling for the other party. He's not a rapist or a serial killer--it's all completely consensual--but in the sheer inhumanity and compulsion of his act, and his mix of lust and self-disgust, he seems similarly disturbed

Apart from his obsession, Brandon keeps every other part of his life under strict control--if anything, he's obsessively tidy. His sister Sissy (Carey Mulligan) is the reverse, a mess in every sense of the word. Sissy, a jazz singer, makes clutter wherever she goes: she's clingy where Brandon is aloof; she longs for emotional connection while he repels it. When she shows up in NY and insists on staying in his apartment, he can't stand it. (There's a suggestion of something unsavory in their shared past.)

The film comes to center on their relationship, or lack thereof, and McQueen is unsparing. He gets extraordinary performances from his two stars. McQueen and Fassbinder had worked together on McQueen's first film as a director, Hunger, and in a very different way, Fassbinder's work is just as remarkable here. Brandon the Sex Addict could easily have been a joke, but Fassbinder's combination of fury, charm and repressed revulsion is riveting. We've never seen Mulligan give a performance like this before--she's a roiling mix of emotions, teetering over an abyss. (She's so good she even survives McQueen putting her through a dirge-like performance of "New York, New York" that seems to go on longer than the original movie.)

McQueen began as a visual artist, and his compositions (photography by Sean Bobbitt) are remarkable. They're often played out at great length, as McQueen favors having the script he wrote with Abi Morgan (writer of TV's terrific The Hour), and then extemporized upon by the actors, performed in lengthy shots, with little editing. His use of music is also impeccable, and often makes use, Kubrick-like, of preexisting music.

Shame will be taken by many as a slow, cold, bleak walk on the wild side, and that NC-17 won't work for long at the boxoffice. For some, though, it will be one of the year's major films, and exciting proof that the director and his stars are among the most revelatory talents in film today.

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