Movie Box Review

Due to the Martin Luther King holiday on Monday, all studios are estimating low Sunday drops, although some are projecting more aggressively than others.

UNIVERSAL:  CONTRABAND held almost even on Saturday, which is good for an action movie, and is projecting a reasonable (given the holiday) 21% drop on Sunday.  It should get to $28-29M for the full holiday weekend, and then hope to withstand the flurry of new action pictures arriving on Friday.

DISNEY:  BEAUTY & THE BEAST 3D went up 20% on Saturday, not a huge increase for a family movie that should be getting the benefit of the matinee audience.  The studio is estimating only an 8% drop on Sunday, by far the lowest in the Top 10, and we'll see if that holds.  Meanwhile, WAR HORSE is projecting a weekend drop of only 35%, but even if that's accurate, the picture's waning Oscar hopes mean that it will have to look for enormous international overperformance to have a hope of seeing profit.

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE had a very strong 38% increase on Saturday, and the 25% estimated drop for Sunday makes sense.  The likely $14M 4-day total isn't impressive, but with no family competition hitting the market until Big Miracle on February 3, it has a chance to stay in theatres for a while.  The studio's holdover SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS had a good weekend hold, and while the picture still won't match the performance of the first in the series, it'll be in the neighborhood.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE hung in there in 6 theatres, dropping only 11% for the 3-day weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY had a solid $6700 average in 802 theatres over Fri-Sun, although that was less than Contraband and Beauty averaged in triple as many theatres.  Since Meryl Streep is guaranteed an Oscar nomination (and could win a Golden Globe tonight), the picture should have several solid weeks of playing time.  The studio got what it wanted from the limited expansion of THE ARTIST, able to report a 4% weekend increase by upping the theatre count 20%.  Its other awards season player MY WEEK WITH MARILYN is out of steam with a big (considering the holiday) 45% drop from last weekend.

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE tried an expansion this weekend to 494 theatres, but found no audience interest with a $1500 per-theatre average (over 3 days).  A DANGEROUS METHOD had a smaller expansion to 104 theatres, and fared better, with a $5500 average (virtually even with THE ARTIST).  A SEPARATION is holding well, with only a 14% drop in 6 theatres.

PARAMOUNT:  The ranking may well change once actual numbers are in for Sunday, but as of now, THE DEVIL INSIDE has the 19th biggest 2d weekend drop in movie history (12th if you limit the count to movies in over 1000 theatres)--and it's only holding that well because of the low Sunday drop due to the holiday weekend.  On a happier note, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL continues to hold very well, and now looks like it will be the only holiday release to earn over $200M in the US (and much more overseas), and could challenge the $215M earned by MI2, so far the most successful of the franchise.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, though, is losing theatres and heading south--it will do OK overall because of the huge foreign overperformance, but we'll see if the promised sequels are ever produced.  YOUNG ADULT lost more than half its theatres this weekend and is officially a (moderate budget-sized) disaster.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO continues to show surprising resilience at the boxoffice, with the best hold of any holiday release.  The fact that it now looks certain to make over $100M in the US should help David Fincher decide to stay with the franchise.  (And his DGA nomination won't hurt either.)

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS performs as it has been for weeks, quietly making its way to almost $50M at the boxoffice with barely a ripple.  SHAME is at a $3500 average in 41 theatres and will need awards help if it's not to fade away.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY took a bigger hit in its 2d wide weekend than the studio would have liked, with a 42% drop over 3 days that was one of the heaviest in the Top 15 (and that was despite increasing the theatre count by about 10%).  The cerebral, complicated thriller may be hitting mainstream audience resistence.  PARIAH expanded a bit to 24 theatres and had a mediocre $4000 average over 3 days.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED and WE BOUGHT A ZOO both jogged in place, neither one an outright flop, but each a disappointment.

INDIES:  The acclaimed 3D PINA (IFC) had a very nice $18K average in 6 theatres.  In 2 NY theatres, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) reached its art-house audience with a $22K average. Angelina Jolie's  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) has already hit a wall, with only a $2200 average as it expanded to 18 theatres.

According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, the weekend is looking auspicious for Mark Wahlberg's CONTRABAND.  The modestly budgeted thriller (which, however, Universal has been expensively marketing for a solid month) is reporting a $7.7M Friday, which could mean $25-28M over the 4-day holiday weekend.

Disney's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST is also looking strong, with about $25M over the long weekend.  Weinstein Company's expansion of IRON LADY, with Oscar hopeful Meryl Streep, should perform very well at only 800 theatres, with $6M or so over the holiday.  The early numbers for Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah vehicle JOYFUL NOISE are more low-key in a wider release, with perhaps $15M by Monday.

To no one's surprise, word of mouth caught up quickly with Paramount's THE DEVIL INSIDE, heading for a plunge of 75% or more that may not reach $9M for the long weekend.  The holiday holdovers, however, seem to be robust, with drops of less than 40% projected for Paramount's MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL, Warners' SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS and Sony's THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO.  

Live by Cinemascore, die by Cinemascore.

THE DEVIL INSIDE:  The most hilarious studio event of the last 24 hours has been Paramount's frantic attempt to argue that an "F" Cinemascore for THE DEVIL INSIDE, making it one of the half-dozen worst exit-polled movies of the past several years, isn't really that bad if you take out your abacus and do their version of the math.  The studio's spin has blanketed Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, and no doubt other industry mouthpieces.  At SHOWBUZZDAILY, we don't put much stock in Cinemascore to begin with, but the studios normally cling to every B+ and A- like guarantees of Oscar glory, so the ego involved in arguing that the lowest possible score is not-so-bad is much like a parent insisting their kid's getting expelled from school is some kind of triumph.  Spin aside, Devil Inside had a remarkably strong, if predictably front-loaded, $34.5M weekend, with a 30% drop on Saturday and another 50% (which may end up being low) projected for Sunday.  Paramount would be best advised to shut up and count its money.  

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  A very fine expansion with $5.8M in 809 theatres (the studio is currently projecting a very low Sunday drop, so that number could end up slightly lower), with the best per-screen average (other than Devil Inside) for any picture this weekend in more than 11 theatres.

WIDE HOLDOVERS:  The smallest drop in the Top 10 was for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony), with a mere 24% fall as it tries to hack its way to $100M.  Then MI4 (Paramount) and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 (Warners) continued to hold well with declines in the 30-35% area.  Sherlock also won the weekend internationally, with $43M in 50 territories that Warners says puts the film almost 20% above its predecessor at the same point in its release overseas, while MI4 was in 3rd place overseas with $28M.  This was followed by the more family-oriented CHIPWRECKED (Fox) (which was in 2d place overseas with $30M), TINTIN (Paramount), WAR HORSE (Disney) and WE BOUGHT A ZOO (Fox), which all fell 36-42%.  Bringing up the rear of the top 10 was NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners), with a 49% drop.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) managed to keep its per-theatre number at $34K by adding a theatre (that's a 25% increase when you only start with 4).  CARNAGE (Sony Classics) went from 12 to 15 theatres and had a $7500 average.  PARIAH (Focus) increased from 4 to 11 theatres, with a $10K average.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) doubled its theatres to 6, with an excellent $16K average.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) also had a $16K average in 6, which was a tiny 13% decrease from last week.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) went from 2 theatres to 7, with only a $4500 average.  SHAME (Fox Searchlight), meanwhile, lost a few theatres, and had a $4500 average at 45.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein) also lost some houses, and is at a dismal $1400 average in 584, while stable-mate THE ARTIST (Weinstein) had an OK $6500 average at 172 (the latter number includes a projected miniscule 7% decline on Sunday).  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) had a $4800 average at 64.

Dateline has preliminary figures for Saturday and the weekend, and as expected, Paramount's THE DEVIL INSIDE took a significant 25+% hit in its second day, a trend that will no doubt continue as stories of audiences in open revolt at the movie's lack of an ending multiply.  Even so, it's looking at a $35M weekend at least, making next weekend's inevitable massive drop seem far, far away.

Otherwise the holdovers seem on target with Friday's numbers.  The kid-oriented movies like CHIPWRECKED, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN and WE BOUGHT A ZOO got a big boost from matinee audiences and went up from 80% to more than double; pictures for older crowds like THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO and WAR HORSE had increases of 30-40% (although TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY looks to do a bit better than that); and big-tent franchises like MI4 and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 should rise 40-50%.  

Everything will come down on Sunday, and action movies may drop a bit extra because the NFL playoff games start earlier than they did on Saturday.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

Everyone wanted to go to the movies on the first full weekend of 2012.

PARAMOUNT:  The studio went straight to its Paranormal Activity playbook to launch THE DEVIL INSIDE (pre-release screenings, months of buzz), and it all worked:  the picture should gross at least $30M in its opening weekend, and with a $1M production cost and relatively minimal marketing, that means serious profit.  No one expects the movie to last long (from all accounts, its abrupt non-ending has patrons all but storming the concession stands), but at those prices, who cares?  Meanwhile, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL held very well (as did virtually everything in the week's Top 10) and could bully its way to $200M in the US.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN had a so-so hold and its US result will be negligible compared to its international success.  HUGO and YOUNG ADULT, though, were on the low end of the weekend's holdovers and are shedding theatres and boxoffice potential.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY expanded to 809 theatres and made its way into the week's Top 10, with a likely $5.5M and the highest per-theatre gross in the group (other than Devil Inside).  For a cerebral thriller, these are great numbers--if the Academy can just see fit to bless it with some nominations, the movie could become a mainstream success.  PARIAH expanded slightly to 11 theatres, and should get to a decent $10-12K per theatre for the weekend.

WEINSTEIN:  THE IRON LADY added a theatre for a total of 5, and that cushioned its Weekend 2 fall to a somewhat misleadingly low 25%.  THE ARTIST held well with only a 22% decline, but its likely $6K average at 172 theatres (adding 5) continues to be underwhelming, and eventually the studio is going to have to expand it beyond a tiny number of art-houses.  The perils of that are shown by MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, in 584 theaters (a loss of 46) with a lousy per-theatre average that won't hit $1500 for the weekend.

FILMDISTRICT:  Angelina Jolie's IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY expanded a bit to 7 theatres, and held pretty well on a per-theatre basis.  Unfortunately, it's holding at a low $4K per theatre.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO had the lowest drop in the Top 10, but that still means a hold at a much lower level than the studio was hoping:  with perhaps $11M for the weekend, the picture will still struggle to get to $100M in the US.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS held fine, and continues on its pace to approach but not match its predecessor's boxoffice.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, not surprisingly, crashed now that its holiday is over, and won't reach $60M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still 2 weeks from national expansion--word of mouth is clearly good, as it had the lowest drop on the board while remaining in 6 theatres.  But its $15K or so per-theatre number is unexciting, and the strategy to keep it out of wide release for a full month is looking like a disaster in the making, unless the Academy notices that it exists.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED had a fine enough hold, and still won't get within $85M of either of the franchise's other entries.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO could make it to $75M in the US, which while far from great, could allow it to hit profit if the picture finds an audience overseas. 

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE isn't looking at much more than $75M in the US unless its probable Oscar nominations can lift it up.  (Wins are considerably less likely.).  THE MUPPETS took a big hit for the weekend, and won't get to $90M.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS continued as it has been, with a mediocre $3500 average in 737 theatres despite all the buzz and awards attention.  It may well win the Golden Globe (it won't face The Artist because of the way the Globes are structured), and the question is whether that and Oscar nominations will spur the film to break out later in the month.  SHAME dropped a few theatres, and is headed for a $4-5K average in 45.

Next week, the Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend brings out a few relatively major releases:  Universal's Mark Wahlberg thriller CONTRABAND (which it's been marketing for months), Fox's Tuskegee Airmen story RED TAILS (from producer George Lucas), and Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah family music drama JOYFUL NOISE, as well as Disney's 3D wide re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST.

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Boxoffice Report, New Year's Day wasn't the bonanza the studios were expecting it to be.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL's Sunday increase was less than half of the 33% projected, and it's likely to fall another 15-20% today, giving it a bit over $140M in total and diminishing chances to hit $200M in the end.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN was up only 6% on Sunday and is projecting negligible change today, which would put it just over $50M and unlikely to hit $75M.  YOUNG ADULT had only 2/3 of the 48% bump it was forecasting Sunday, and with a 20+% drop today, it'll be at $12M and in serious danger of never seeing $20M in total.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was up only 7% Sunday (instead of the 23% forecast), and with at least a 20% drop today, it'll be at $137M and hoping to get above $170M total.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, as expected, is done, with a 20% fall on Sunday and more than that today for a $47M total that will be lucky to get above $50M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE was one of the few titles with some good news--a 55% Sunday increase and a small projected 16% drop today--but still, an $18.5K 4-day holiday average in 6 theatres is nowhere near where this movie wanted to be.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED really faltered--instead of gaining 32% on Sunday, it fell another 6%, and is projecting little increase today.  That'll get it to $98M, with little prospect of getting much higher than $120M (almost $100M less than its predecessors).  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had twin 14% drops yesterday and today, and is looking at $44M for now, and perhaps $65M in all.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE didn't go up 19% on Sunday, as the studio projected--it went down 27%.  Nonetheless, the very bullish mouse-heads are predicting an 18% increase today.  If that comes true, the picture would have $45M in the bank and be headed to $75-80M (with Oscars as a wild card factor), but given the giant overestimate yesterday, all the numbers have to be in pencil at this point.  Disney is also predicting a huge 42% increase for THE MUPPETS despite an 8% decline yesterday, and we'll see about that one, too.

SONY:  The studio's projection of a 59% increase for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO yesterday sounded overoptimistic to the point of being unbalanced, and it was--the picture went up less than half that amount, only 24%.  The 20% fall estimated for today may be more reasonable, and would leave the picture at $60M, with dwindling chances of seeing a $100M total.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS was hoping to hold even on Sunday, but it went down 17%, with another 19% expected today.  That'll leave it at $40M, with a $5600 average over the 4-day holiday that's nothing special.  SHAME, on the other hand, had a terrific 83% increase on Sunday, and should decline 25% today.  It's still struggling, though, with a $4900 average in only 55 theatres over the long weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE ARTIST went down 2% instead of rising 20% on Sunday, and is forecasting another 20% drop today, giving it under a $10K average in only 167 theatres over the long weekend.  THE IRON LADY, though, held with an excellent $70K average in its 4-theatre launch.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN continued to sag with a $1900 average in 630 theatres over 4 days.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY wasn't quite where it looked to be (a $25K average over 4 days rather than $28K), but that's still enormously encouraging, a higher per-theatre number in 57 theatres than anything else has in more than 4.  PARIAH, in only 4 theatres, couldn't do better than $16K average over 4 days.

SONY CLASSICS:  The subtitled Iranian A SEPARATION is off to a very strong start with a $27K average in 3 theatres.  

With one startling exception and a couple of smaller ones, the holiday crop of movies declined on Saturday and are expected to recover on New Year's Day.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL went down 18% and is expected to rise 33% today.  It should hit $142M by the end of the 4-day holiday weekend.   THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is up and down a more orderly 23%, and should be at about $52M with the extra day.  HUGO was a little more stable, down only 7% but also up only 15%.  It should be just a touch below $50M by the end of Monday.  YOUNG ADULT went down 24% Saturday but is looking for a very large 48% increase on Sunday--even if that happens, it won't hit $13M by the end of the holidays.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was down 16% and up 23%, and should be just under $140M coming out of the holidays.  NEW YEAR'S EVE had its last burst of audience interest on Dec. 31, and is one of the only movies expected to decline on Sunday.  It still won't be at $50M after Monday, and its shelf-life is now done.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE went down 22% and may only rise 10% on Sunday, giving it an unimpressive $17K average in 6 theatres for the 3-day weekend that should rise a bit to $20K with Monday included.  

DISNEY:  What got into WAR HORSE's hay on Saturday?  With almost every other picture falling as per seasonal pattern, and after an unexciting week at the boxoffice, Steven Spielberg's epic weirdly went up 20%, and expects to rise another 19% on Sunday.  It's hard to know what happened, but no doubt Disney and DreamWorks are hoping it's a harbinger of things to come.  The studio's only other picture in the market is THE MUPPETS, nearing the end of its run with perhaps $85M in total.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED lost 32% on Saturday and should make up most of it on Sunday.  It should just get to $100M with Monday included.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had a less bumpy ride, down only 7% on Saturday but also expecting a much smaller increase today, on its way to perhaps $47M after Monday.  

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO went down a standard 21% on Saturday, but is anticipating, for no clear reason, a whopping 59% increase on Sunday.  If that actually happens, it could be at $62M after Monday, although an ultimate gross of $100M may still be a stretch without some awards attention.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS had a good Saturday with a 15% increase, and is expecting to simply hold steady on Sunday--it should hit $40M with Monday included, but its $6K average for the long weekend is still only so-so.  In limited release, SHAME fell a heavy 38% on Saturday but is projecting a huge 65% Sunday increase--even if it achieves that, a $5K average over the 4-day weekend in only 55 theatres is, well, flaccid.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  All its films are in limited release.  THE ARTIST, in 167 theatres, is still very mild, reporting a 13% increase on Saturday and 20% more Sunday, which makes for a 4-day average around $10K.  THE IRON LADY is off to a great start but in only 4 theatres--down 15% then up 20%, it could hit a per-theatre average of $70K over 4 days.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, the company's widest release at 630 theatres, is still a picture no one wants to see.  Even with a small 6% drop on Saturday and a 20% Sunday increase, its 4-day average will probably be around $2K.

FOCUS:  The likely $28K 4-day average for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY in 55 theatres is very impressive for a 4th weekend--now the question is when and how far the studio will expand it.  PARIAH's likely $15K average in 4 days and 4 theatres doesn't show much promise.

SONY CLASSICS:  A SEPARATION is off to a good start, with what should be a $25+K average in 3 theatres.  

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Boxoffice Report, Friday's numbers were solid but lacking any breakout excitement.  First, let's take a quick look at the limited-run Oscar hopefuls:

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein):  Meryl-Streep-as-Margaret-Thatcher came roaring into the awards mix with a terrific $19K average in 4 theatres that should lead it to a $75-80K average over the 4 day holiday weekend.  The film's appeal outside big-city art houses is questionable, though, so here's one of several cases where Harvey Weinstein will have to play the expansion game very carefully.

A SEPARATION (Sony Classics):  This excellent Iranian import, a front-runner for the Foreign-Language Film Oscar, started with a very good $6K average in 3 theatres that should get it to around $25K per-theatre over the holiday weekend.

PARIAH (Focus):  Bounced back a bit from Thursday's slump, but its $3500 average in 4 theatres isn't a great start, and it may struggle to reach a $15K average for the weekend.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Continues to be mediocre, with a $2400 average in 167 theatres that won't hit $10K by Jan 2.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Continues to hold very well, with a $6K average on Friday in 55 theatres that should reach $25K over the holiday weekend.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  Not doing better than OK, with a $1500 average on Friday in 55 theatres that might reach $6K for the weekend.  

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict)  The same numbers as Shame ($1500 average Friday for a $6K weekend), but much worse because it's only at 2 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Harvey is 0-for-3 in the breakout hit category, with a dismal $500 average in 630 theatres that won't get past $2K for the weekend.

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  The Oscar front-runner no one seems to care about.  It only had a $1500 average in 758 theatres on Friday, and won't get higher than a $6K average for the weekend.  That will put it at $40M, in serious danger of dropping screens by the time the Oscar nominations are announced in late January.  At that point, it's going to be difficult to spark widespread excitement over a picture that's already been playing as a presumptive nominee for 2 full months.

And at the major studios:

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL is the one smash hit of the season, even though it won't be the highest-grossing of the series.  With even bigger numbers pouring in overseas ($200M already, with plenty more to come), announcement of a 5th chapter in the series should be coming any time.  However, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (which Sony distributes overseas) is a major disappointment that will barely recoup its enormous US marketing cost, placing the planned franchise in jeopardy.  The very expensive HUGO, despite its critical adoration, is mostly done with $50M total gross--even an expected Oscar nomination probably won't get it much farther.  And YOUNG ADULT has found no traction at all--the reviews were weaker than expected, and with only $12.5M in the bank by the end of the holidays and an anticipated holiday average under $3K in only 987 theatres, even Charlize Theron's possible Best Actress nomination won't convince more theatres to play it.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS will underperform its predecessor, but a $170-180M gross isn't bad (it might be more accurate to say the first picture overperformed, all things considered).  It's only played in a handful of foreign territories so far, and the results there will determine whether the expensive franchise is worth continuing.  NEW YEAR'S EVE is a flop, although not a very expensive one.  The big disappointment thus far is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which hit a perfect storm of bitterly mixed reviews, some bad scheduling choices and a faltering awards campaign.  This weekend it's headed for a $25K average in 6 theatres, which is OK but not at all the event that the studio needed to propel the film into wide release later in January.

FOX:  ALVIN THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED will be the highest-grossing kids' movie of the season, turn a profit and very possibly justify another installment--but its almost 50% drop from the other films in the series is fairly disastrous, and turns what had been a cash cow into a risk.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO will need help from uncertain foreign revenues if it's to avoid red ink.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO isn't the flop of the season, but it may be the biggest disappointment.  Was it the favorable-but-not-enthusiastic reviews?  The dour tone of the marketing?  An overdose of the franchise, after the successful Swedish films and months of publicity?  In any case, it's going to be hard to justify spending $100M on the sequel--and Fincher, who's perpetually in demand, may well decide to bow out.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, though--that's an (undeserved) flop.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE is sparking very little interest, and at this point seems unlikely to reach $100M despite very aggressive marketing, even with the anticipated Oscar nominations.  It's ironic that since DreamWorks joined Disney, their one smash hit has been the completely unexpected The Help.  This also leads to what could be a very ticklish internal political issue:  does The Help now have a better chance at winning the Oscar than War Horse?  And will Spielberg allow his pet project to fall to second place in the campaigning strategy?  Meanwhile THE MUPPETS was a nice-sized hit due to its relatively modest budget, but it's far from clear that there's a franchise there.  The combined grosses of Disney's 2 holiday pictures won't reach the boxoffice for 2010's Tangled alone--combined with the disappointing US responses to Cars 2 and Pirates 4, it's been an off-year for the studio.

UNIVERSAL:  Sat out the holiday season entirely.  They've been spending a lot of money marketing the Mark Wahlberg action picture CONTRABAND all month, though, giving it the kind of weeks-long push that normally goes to much bigger pictures.  We'll find out in a couple of weeks if the strategy made sense.

Deadline has initial boxoffice figures for Friday, and if the numbers hold, the results seem to be a healthy amount higher than last year's Friday before New Year's, allowing the holiday period--and the year--to end on an up note. (Note, however, that overall comparisons to 2010's holidays are skewed by the fact that 2011 had more new films in release this week than was the case a year ago, increasing the 2011 numbers by sheer tonnage.)

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Leads the way, as it has all through the holidays, with a 30% increase from Thursday to $10.7M.  That should get it to around $140M by Monday, and a total gross somewhere between the finals of the first ($180M) and second ($215M) Mission movies.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners): A 17% increase to $7.4M, which projects to around $135M at the end of the weekend and a final result around $160-170M, about 20% less than the first Sherlock.

ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  A smaller 7% hike from Thursday to $7M, meaning probably $100M by Jan 2 and a $130M total that's far lower than the $217-220M scored by the other Alvin pictures.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  The studio stopped reporting grosses mid-week (never a good sign), but its $5.3M on Friday is probably up around 15% from Thursday, and should mean around $60M by Monday and a very disappointing ultimate gross of $80M or so.  (Tattoo was supposed to be Fincher's "commercial" hit after the "art-house" Social Network,but at those numbers, it'll wind up 20% behind the far lower-budgeted film.)

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Up 15% to around $4.7M, which means around $45M for the holidays and perhaps $70M in all.  That's a lot better than Crowe's flop Elizabethtown, but far from a hit.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  A good 25+% increase to $4.6M, but that still puts it in the same neighborhood as We Bought A Zoo at a far higher budget, unless Oscar attention moves it up.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  Spielberg's other disappointment should have a modest 7% increase to $4.4M, giving it a soft $50M by Monday and another $70M total.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  One day from its sell-through date, with another 25-30% increase to $2.3M.  It should collapse for good on Sunday and get little higher than $50M in all.

THE DARKEST HOUR (Summit):  Managed a 30% increase to $1.6M, but percentages don't matter much at those numbers.  Its final total may not even reach $20M.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis all holiday weekend!

The boxoffice did more or less what it was supposed to on Wednesday, drifting down 5-10% from Tuesday.  Thursday should be fairly steady, then business should have a bit of a roller-coaster ride:  an increase on Friday, down somewhat on New Year's Eve, back up on New Year's Day, and down again on January 2, before collapsing when everyone goes back to work on Wednesday.  

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount), ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) and SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) remained at the top of the day (Alvin nosing ahead of Sherlock on Wednesday), and here are some other highlights:

PARIAH (Focus):  One of the last pictures to enter 2011's awards hunt is this low-budget, well-reviewed independent film.  It got off to a fine start in 4 theatres with a $5500 average.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  Still hasn't found bottom, with another 11% drop from Tuesday, at the higher end of the day's declines.  It's unlikely to reach $50M by the end of the holidays, and the numbers only go down after that.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to enjoy its few days of glory, with a 4% increase on Wednesday.  There's only $38M in the bank so far, though, and 3 more days before it literally becomes last year's news, so none of it means much.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  A 11% Wednesday increase was the first good news this picture has had, lifting it to $5200 per theatre in 6.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  The adult audience also came out for this one with a 10% hike to a $1600 average in 3.

No new wide openings this weekend, but limited releases include the 2 final Oscar contenders of the year:  Meryl Streep's turn as Margaret Thatcher in THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), and Iran's Foreign-Language Film hopeful A SEPARATION (Sony Classics).

Be sure to  read Mitch Metcalf's New Year's Weekend Predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holidays for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

The holiday celebrations at the studios may have been a bit premature.  

Traditionally, the Tuesday after Christmas sees a 10-20% drop from Monday, and that number becomes the template for the rest of the holiday period.  But yesterday, aside from the films aimed straight at the family crowd, the drops were much worse.

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Fell 34% to $9.6M, which probably means around $145M by Jan 2 and a dwindling chance of reaching $200M.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  Down 32% to $7.3M, meaning perhaps $140M by Jan. 2 and a final result 20% lower than the first Sherlock.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Thriving with a tiny 2% drop to $6.8M and should be over $100M by the end of the holidays, although that's still a huge drop from the earlier pictures in the series.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  31% down to $4.7M, so perhaps $60M by Jan 2 and $80M in total.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  Down an OK (for a family picture) 15% to $4.6M, which will still leave it with only around $60M at the end of the holidays and a very dour US total around $75-80M.

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Off 18% to $4.3M, so probably under $50M for the holidays and not much upside afterward.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  A whopping 40% plummet to $4.2M.  With probably $45M by Jan 2 and a likely domestic total not much better than Tintin's, it's time to wonder how much a mediocre boxoffice will affect the film's Oscar chances.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to reap the benefits of its upcoming holiday with a small 12% drop, but it's already so low ($1.7M) that the few days remaining till Dec 31 won't get it much closer to break-even.

THE DARKEST HOUR (Summit):  Continues to free-fall another 30% to $1.5M and a terrible $15-20M for the holidays.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Finding no traction with another 31% drop, leaving its per-theatre at $1800.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Also down 30%, but the per-theatre is a more robust $4300.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Off 26% to a dreadful per-theatre of $390.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  Going nowhere with another 33% drop, leaving its per-theatre at $4700 in only 6 theatres.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  Also off 33% at 3 theatres, with a low $1500 average.

As is traditionally the case, movie boxoffice declined sharply on December 24, the lowest ebb of the holiday period.  According to Deadline, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount) remains #1, with $5.6M on Saturday, a 40+% fall from Friday.  Similarly, SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) fell around 45% to $3.8M on Saturday.  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) was down almost 50% to $2.8M

This week's openings continued to run below last week's.  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) slumped a full 50% on Saturday to $2.3M.  It was followed by THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount), currently reported as a more modest 35% drop, also to $2.3M.  The last of the pack is WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th), down 40% to a sadly uninspiring $1.8M

Business should recover on Christmas Day (which will be fueled as well by the arrivals of WAR HORSE and THE DEADLIEST HOUR), and then hit its holday high point on Monday.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holiday season for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

Anyone who thinks the boxoffice isn't in a slump needs a new prescription for bifocals.

Note:  since December 24 is a traditionally deadly day at the boxoffice (closed theatres, family plans)  that would make 3-day weekend estimates look even worse than they are, we'll use 4 day Friday-Monday weekend estimates below.

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Its 6th place start with $3M in 3100 theatres (a lousy $952 average for the day) is terribly disappointing, and the picture is unlikely to have any impact at all on the holiday boxoffice.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  A crucially important first expansion for a movie that hopes to take the Best Picture Oscar, and it went horribly.  Moving from 17 theatres to 167, the film could only manage a $1400 average on Friday that will probably be around $7500 over all 4 days of the long weekend.  Will it ultimately matter to the Oscar race?  We'll see.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Another disastrous expansion for an Oscar hopeful, this time from 358 to 602 moviehouses.  The Friday average was a pathetic $280, and it probably won't get to $1500 over the 4-day weekend.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus):  Finally a glimmer of good news, as the expansion from 16 to 53 theatres went well:  Friday's average of $3900 should translate into close to $30K over 4 days.

ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside):  An awards hopeful for Glenn Close and Janet McTeer, this is playing a 1-week Oscar qualifying run in just 2 theatres, and its mediocre $3500 average start probably means less than $25K in each theatre over the long weekend.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  Another Oscar hopeful (this one Angelina Jolie's parade of Bosnian wartime atrocities, already nominated for a Foreign-Language Golden Globe), another weak opening:  in 3 theatres, its $2200 average on Friday probably means $15K over the holiday weekend.

Back to the world of wide releases:

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  The one and only success story for Hollywood this season (Paramount gets credit for the 2 smartest distribution decisions of the year:  the IMAX "previews" of MI4, and pushing back the opening of Puss In Boots), and yet even this one carries some disappointment:  the picture is unlikely to make as much as MI2's $215M, and may end up only outgrossing the third chapter of the series.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners);  Headed for a US gross 20-30% lower than the first in the series.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  Although with its hard-R rating and "The Feel-Bad Movie of the Holidays" spirit, this picture has excuses the other disappointments lack, the fact it it's just not doing the business that its pedigree (and $90-100M production budget) promised.  It may not even reach $100M total gross in the US.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  It's very nice that the film did well overseas, but it was wildly expensive, and its likely $80M US gross won't even pay for its domestic marketing campaign, let alone any of the production cost.  With a global outlook little better than break-even, Spielberg and Jackson certainly have to do some thinking before launching the projected Jackson-directed 2d chapter in the planned franchise.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Another damaged franchise, with a total that could end up at half or even less of its predecessors.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  Even with an extra holiday in the weekend, most will be lucky to break even from last weekend, and some (NEW YEAR'S EVE, HUGO) are falling considerably more.  YOUNG ADULT (Paramount) is in particularly dire straits, finding no audience at all with what may be a 40% slide despite the long weekend.  

And then there were 2, or really 1 1/2:  on Christmas Day, Steven Spielberg's WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) will attempt to ride in and save the holidays, while Summit's THE DEADLIEST HOUR gathers up what small change remains in the sofa cushions.  Also opening is the bizarrely controversial EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), in an exclusive 6-theatre run.

Well, now it's all up to WAR HORSE.

Cameron Crowe's WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th) joined the market on Friday, and it appears to be back to movie jail for Crowe, because according to the Hollywood Reporter, it only made around $3M, even on a day when almost everything else saw 40+% increases.  Although it will probably have higher days in the course of the holiday season, it's unlikely to be a major performer.  Since no one expects Summit's THE DEADLIEST HOUR to be more than quickie counterprogramming, the only remaining chance for a holiday smash is War Horse, which arrives on Sunday.

Day-for-day comparisons between this year's Friday and last year's are of little use, since last year's Friday was December 24, the lowest grossing day of the season (not only do many people have non-movie Christmas Eve plans, but some theatres close early for the holiday).  A look at the holiday pattern in 2005, the last time Christmas fell on a Sunday, suggests that grosses will decline around 40% on Saturday, then double on Christmas Day.  December 26 should be the highest day of the entire holiday period, but with increases that could be all over the place, ranging from 10-90%.  After that, business declines modestly through the course of the inter-holiday week before rising again for New Year's weekend.  

Elsewhere on Friday, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount) held its lead, with $9.5-10M, around 50% higher than Thursday.  Right now MI4 seems to be the only holiday picture with the potential velocity to get beyond $200M in total US gross.  Second place was SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) with $6.5-7M, a 40-50% bump from Thursday, but still more than 50% off from last Friday.  Fellow holdover ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) followed with $5.3M, a more modest 30-35% increase for the day but down only 20% from last week.

Next up were the 2 Wednesday openings.  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) did $4.5-5M, a 40-50% spike.  Steven Spielberg's other holiday picture THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount) perked up a bit with $3.5-4M, up 50+% from Thursday.

Friday also marked significant expansions for 2 major awards hopefuls, THE ARTIST and MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, as well as a smaller expansion for TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holidays for updated boxoffice and analysis on these and all the other new openings!

Deadline has preliminary figures for Thursday's boxoffice, and they appear to be fairly steady with Wednesday, consistent with last year's pattern but below 2010's totals.  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount) remains at the head of the pack with $6.2M, down about 10%.  This compares with $7.1M for last year's #1 on the Thursday before Christmas, Little Fockers.  Behind it are last week's holdovers, SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) with $4.8M  and ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) with $3.9M (each up about 15% for the day), which are similarly below the $6.1M and $5.6M earned by Tron: Legacy and True Grit in 2010.

Wednesday's openers follow, as THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) had $3.1M (down around 10%) and THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount) had $2.4M (up around 4%), both below the $3.3M and $3M in 2010 for Yogi Bear and Chronicles of Narnia.  

Entering Christmas weekend, the holiday totals for the top 5 are running about 20% below 2010.  However, last year Christmas Eve, the slowest boxoffice day of the holiday season, was on Friday, so a year-to-year comparison for that day won't be meaningful.  Also, by this point in 2010 all the year's wide releases had opened, while this year WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th), WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) and THE DEADLIEST HOUR (Summit) are still to arrive.

The Hollywood Reporter has preliminary estimates for Wednesday's boxoffice take, and the numbers seem to be a bit down from the Wednesday before Christmas weekend in 2010.   MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount) appears to have the early lead, with $5-6M for the day.  MI4 expanded from 425 to around 3400 theatres on Wednesday, and the reported take would triple Tuesday's gross or more (although per-theatre would go down from around $4K to $1500-1750).  This compares with 2010's opening of Little Fockers on the parallel Wednesday last year, which had an opening day gross of $7.1M in 3500 theatres, for a $2K average. 

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony), which is at about 2900 theatres (and has a hard R-rating as well as a running time 25 minutes longer than MI4's) is estimated to have gotten off to a $4.5-5.5M start, a strong $1500-1900 theatre average.  Last year, the other major Wednesday opening was the  much more family-oriented True Grit, which made a very similar $5.5M at 3000 theatres for a $1800 average.  (Note:  opening days only mean so much, as indicated by the fact that when all the money was counted last year, True Grit ended up with $23M in the bank more than Little Fockers.) 

The news is less good for the season's first Steven Spielberg movie, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount), which appears to be headed for $2.5-3M at 3100 theatres, for a $800-1000 average--and that includes 3D ticket prices.  

None of the new arrivals appears to have hurt last weekend's holdovers, as SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) and ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) are headed for $4.5-5.5M and $3.5-4M respectively, in line with their Tuesday results.

The year's final wide release arrivals are WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th) on Friday, and then WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) and THE DEADLIEST HOUR (Summit) on Sunday.

As schools close and vacations begin, a lot of money is about to flood into Hollywood for about 2 blissful weeks.  But not enough to make up for the rest of a doleful year.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  With a studio estimate that just barely managed to nudge above $40M--and needed an extraordinarily low 28% projected Sunday drop to get there--tomorrow's least surprising development would be an actual weekend number that starts with "39."  That cosmetic change aside, this is yet another big ($125M + $150M in worldwide marketing) budget Hollywood product that will need foreign aid.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  With 3 major family movies opening over the next week (Tintin, We Bought A Zoo and War Horse), Alvin may be chip out of luck.  The picture did manage an additional $14M overseas in a few markets.  (And Tintin is already done overseas, which could help beyond these shores.)

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE  GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  The one success story of the weekend.  Paramount could hardly have hoped for a better start, and the idea of staging an "event" opening only at Imax and other large-format theatres was inspired (it didn't hurt that Warners gave the opening a Dark Night Rises boost).  Add to that a terrific $68M initial launch in 36 overseas territories.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  On the other hand, the same studio was unable to create any excitement over its holiday movie for grown-ups, and the film is in serious danger of a quick fade.

CARNAGE (Sony Classics):  A $17K average in 5 NY/LA theatres just doesn't cut it in this, the most crowded season of the year for prestige titles.

EXPANSIONS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) had a small but very successful push into 16 theatres, with a robust $28K average.  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) broadened its run to 17 theatres with a far less impressive $9K average result.  SHAME (Fox Searchlight) faltered to a $6K average in 51 theatres.  The most important expansion of the season will happen on Friday, though, when Weinstein finally moves THE ARTIST to 170 movie-houses (and also brings MY WEEK WITH MARILYN to around 400).

HOLDOVERS:  NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners) held fairly well with a 43% drop from last week, but the opening was so low that it doesn't matter much.  The bottom dropped out of THE SITTER (20th) with an unsurprising 55% plummet.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1 (Summit) is pacing below New Moon, and will be the lowest grossing chapter of the saga since the original Twilight.  The family trio of HUGO (Paramount), ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony) and THE MUPPETS (Disney) are tightly bunched in the $3.4-3.6M weekend area, and about to be assailed by new competition--even though Hugo is getting generous awards attention, that hasn't pulled the film above the crowd, although its likely Oscar nominations should keep it in the market deeper into 2012 than the others.  J. EDGAR (Warners) lost half its theatres and is essentially done with a $35M total.  MARGIN CALL (Roadside) passed the $5M mark, putting it ahead of most of the fall's higher-profile indie competition.

The news didn't get any better for Hollywood on Saturday.  In fact, according to preliminary numbers at Deadline, the downhill ride got steeper for SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS.  The film had virtually no increase from Friday to Saturday, and if those numbers hold, its full weekend tally will probably be around $40M, below even reduced expectations.  (And that number could well fall still further when Monday's actuals are released.)  

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED had its Saturday matinee bump and at least remains on target for its reduced $23.5M estimate, and YOUNG ADULT should also get to its reduced level of expectation.  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL held steady on Saturday and should hit its $12.5M target.  As expected, NEW YEAR'S EVE will have a moderate drop from its low start, while THE SITTER was unable to sustain a second weekend. 

The last 2 weeks of the year will almost certainly bring better news for Hollywood, for reasons of tonnage alone:  there are 6 wide openings to come next week, compared to only 3 in the final weeks of 2010.  But for now, the stocking-stuffer of choice is coal.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  The point here isn't a potential 20% domestic shortfall on one movie that may well be made up overseas, where the market is booming for big-budget action.  The scary thing, not just for Warners but for all the studios, is that with increasingly rare exceptions, the US audience seems to be less interested than it used to be in the giant product that's been the cornerstone of the industry for more than 3 decades.  Other than Harry Potter (a special case, as the 8th and final chapter in a continuing saga), virtually every franchise entry this year has underperformed its predecessors domestically.  Will those ticket-buyers come back?  We'll find out in 2012, when huge additions to the Marvel, Batman, Spider-Man, Twilight, Lord of the Rings and other franchises are rolled out.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Ironically, all the family movies that crashed into each other over Thanksgiving weekend so as to avoid this presumed juggernaut could have spaced themselves out a little.  The moment seems to have passed for the squeaky threesome (6 if you count the Chipettes)--although, again, Mitch Metcalf's anticipated $140M US gross, combined with homevideo (people still buy DVDs for kids) and overseas boxoffice, will keep this franchise profitable.

MISSION:  IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Some good news, albeit loaded with asterisks.  A $24K weekend theatre average in 423 theatres is a terrific number... but by confining itself to Imax and other large-format screens, the studio boosted the ticket price considerably.  And don't forget those Dark Knight Rises extended trailers in the 70mm houses.  Nonetheless, an excellent start for an industry that needs one.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  Last time around, Paramount unveiled Jason Reitman's Up In the Air in the fall at Toronto and other festivals, and felt like the movie had peaked too soon and left potential awards on the table when it finally opened in December.  So this time, they kept Reitman's Young Adult under wraps until awards season.  Unfortunately, the move seems to have backfired:  apart from some (well-deserved) attention to Charlize Theron, the movie is getting limited acclaim, and with a likely $3200 average in about 1000 theatres, it may be doomed by New Year's.

CARNAGE (Sony Classics):  Despite impeccable credentials (Polanski, the Foster/Winslet/Walz/Reilly combo, Tony Award-winning source material) and some strong reviews where it's supposed to count, the film is headed for a deeply unexciting $17.5K average at 5 NY/LA theatres.

HOLDOVERS:  NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners) should slide less than 50%, but that's not nearly enough to save it.  THE SITTER (20th), as expected for its genre, will have a deeper slump and head for the exits.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) continues to do no better than OK; despite a great deal of awards love this week, its per-theatre average will be around $3500.  HUGO (Paramount) and ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony) are both holding well, but at very low numbers, around $1200-1400 per theatre, and THE MUPPETS (Disney) took a bigger fall to hit the same neighborhood.  The Weinstein Company continues to play a very slow hand with MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and THE ARTIST, neither of which expanded this week, and had modest per-theatre dips.  (Both will go wider on Dec. 23.)   Fox Searchlight did expand SHAME from 21 to 51 theatres, and as a result, the per-theatre average will drop sharply to around $6K.  

Next week, as noted, the holiday avalanche arrives.  On Wednesday, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) and THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount) open for their very different audiences, along with the wide expansion of MI4.  Those are followed on Friday by WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th).  Then Christmas Day brings WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) and Summit's counterprogramming THE DARKEST HOUR.  Plenty for families, with a couple of dark dramas for the adults.  Will it work?  Stay tuned.

Uh oh.

Deadline has what are admittedly very preliminary numbers for Friday's boxoffice.  But if they hold, this holiday season may not be a festive one for Hollywood.  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS appears to be headed for a $16M Friday (including a little over $1M from midnight screenings), which would likely mean around a $45M weekend.  While that's not a terrible number, it pales next to the $62M opening of the first Holmes movie in 2009 (which started on Christmas Day), and would be far below Mitch Metcalf's weekend prediction.  The opening would be just about equal to the that of Tron: Legacy on the same weekend last year, and that film only reached a total gross of $172M, compared to the $206M for the first Holmes picture.

Similarly, ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED appears to be having a $7M Friday, on its way to a $24-26M weekend.  This would again be far lower than the $44M opening of the first Alvin on the parallel weekend in 2007, and while the second Alvin isn't apples-to-apples because it opened on the Wednesday before Christmas, the opening day number would be a shocking 60% below Alvin 2's $18M start.  

MISSION:  IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL is closer to Mitch Metcalf's prediction with a $10-11M weekend, and it can't be usefully compared to the other Mission pictures because it's playing in only 423 theatres for the next 5 days.  However, those theatres are mostly Imax, meaning significantly higher ticket prices than the norm, and some of them are boosted by featuring the extended trailer for the upcoming Dark Knight Rises.

In a smaller opening of 973 theatres, YOUNG ADULT, which has gotten little of the critical or awards help it needed, seems to be headed for a muted wide expansion that will reach around $3K in per-theatre gross.