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Showing posts with label hop. Show all posts

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 22-24: A Return to the Box Office

9:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Up nearly 40% from last year, this weekend is being fueled by returning family films like  Rio and Hop (legitimate hits) and moderate films like Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family and Water for Elephants.  The audience is returning to theaters in time for the start of the summer season.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Rio should finish its run with $154 million and Hop should end up with $127 million.  As for the openers, Madea's Big Happy Family (starring and produced, written and directed by Tyler Perry, pictured) is headed for $58 million, similar to Perry's recent Why Did I Get Married Too? but far below the last Madea project, Madea Goes to Jail ($90 million).  Water for Elephants is headed for a final domestic gross of $42 million.  African Cats is on pace for a $20 million total.


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Madea's Big Happy Family opened with $25.8 million, averaging a robust $11,254 per theater at 2,288 theaters.  Water Elephants opened with $17.5 million, playing on 2,817 theaters and averaging $6,212 -- a slightly above average performance.  African Cats opened at only 1,220 theaters and averaged $5,246 per theater (for a total of $6.4 million).  The per theater average for Cats is down from the estimate yesterday but still a hair above the $4,900 average number for all movies.


April 22-24, 2011                   Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd    Ultimate*
Rio                       (Fox)     $26.8   -32%      $154 ++
Madea's Big Happy Family   (LG)     $25.8             $ 58
Water for Elephants       (Fox)     $17.5             $ 42
Hop                       (Uni)     $12.5   +17%      $127 ++
Scre4m                  (Weins)     $ 7.2   -62%      $ 48 --
African Cats              (Dis)     $ 6.4             $ 20
Soul Surfer               (Tri)     $ 5.6   -23%      $ 43
Insidious             (FilmDis)     $ 5.4   -20%      $ 57
Hanna                     (Foc)     $ 5.3   -28%      $ 46
Source Code               (Sum)     $ 5.1   -18%      $ 58
Arthur                     (WB)     $ 4.1   -39%      $ 38

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 
 
Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total, up almost 40% from the same weekend last year and up almost 50% (an amazing increase) from the 2007-10 average for the comparable weekend. 


Top 12 Films: Fourth Weekend in April
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $124  (+48% vs 2007-10 average; +39% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 84  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 90  Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6 
2009  $104  Obsessed $29, Fighting $11, The Soloist $10, Earth $9
2008  $ 80  Baby Mama $17, Harold & Kumar Escape $15,Deception $2
2007  $ 62  The Invisible $8, Next $7, Condemned $4

The Week Ahead

Opening next week are Fast Five (action sequel) from Universal, Prom (comedy-drama) from Disney, Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil (animation) from Weinstein, and Dylan Dog: Dead of Night (horror comedy) from Freestyle Releasing.  Look for Fast Five to make the most noise and ignite the entire weekend.  Also, Rio should continue to do well.  These strong films will be enough to fuel increase from the same weekend last year when A Nightmare on Elm Street opened with $33 million and Furry Vengeance struggled with a little more than $6 million.  A positive weekend would be the third in a row, and as movies do well they provide a platform for trailers of upcoming films, creating a cycle of success for future weekends and the summer season itself.  Of course, people need to want to see the summer movies, but the stage is being set for a fair test.

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

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Boxoffice Footnotes

2:55 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Among Tyler Perry movies that feature his Madea character, BIG HAPPY FAMILY is looking relatively weak, but it may have a big Easter Sunday. Other pictures likely to benefit from family crowds include RIO, HOP and SOUL SURFER.

On the other hand, the teen girl crowd typically turns out opening night, which could give WATER FOR ELEPHANTS a shaky weekend multiple.  It could have a decent hold next week, though (until SOMETHING BORROWED opens May 6).


SCRE4M collapsed, not unexpectedly, so unless they take a shot at 3D, that franchise is probably done. Ditto for YOUR HIGHNESS. INSIDIOUS, though, continues to mint money.


CONSPIRATOR didn't have a promising 2d weekend, headed for around $3K per theatre in 848. ATLAS SHRUGGED PART I fared even worse, adding 50% more theatres but plummeting by half.   Don't hold your breath for Part II.


WIN WIN added some more theatres and held steady--it may hit a $10M or so total, as may JANE EYRE.


Next week will be all FAST FIVE; the interesting question is whether that will be so big that it can challenge THOR"s opening the following week.  Early grosses in Australia, where both films have already opened, suggest Thor may not be a sure thing.



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FRIDAY APR 22 BOX OFFICE NUMBERS: Another Strong Weekend Led by Rio and Madea

8:58 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,


This is shaping up to be a VERY strong second weekend in a row at the box office.  Early box office numbers indicate strong performances by Rio and Hop, a solid opening for Madea, and an OK opening for Water for Elephants.    

Based on Friday's numbers, Rio remains at #1 with a projected $27.5 million this weekend, down only 30% from last weekend.  Rio has been upgraded to $157 million on the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Gross estimate.  The top opener is Madea's Big Happy Family at $26 million, somewhat lower than forecast Thursday but still solid.  Madea has a $59 million Domestic Final Gross estimate.  Opening at expectations, Water for Elephants should open with $16.8 million and is headed for a Domestic Final Gross of $45 million.  And Disneynature's African Cats should open as forecast with $7.3 million on its way toan estimated Domestic Final Gross of $21 million.  Hop, boosted by Easter weekend, actually was UP versus last weekend to $12 million, from $10.7 million, an extraordinary feat.  Hop's Domestic Final Gross has been upgraded back up to $126 million. 


On a per theater basis, Madea will average a very good $11,300 at 2,288 theaters.  Water for Elephants should average $6,000 at 2,817 theaters, and African Cats should average a similar number at a lower theater count (1,220).  $6,000 per theater is above the norm for opening weekends and is a decent number.  In sum, good performances from all three movies.  And keep in mind that although African Cats is only a $7 million opening weekend (because of the low theater count), the film will have decent legs and a very good international return, based on past performance of the series.


April 22-24, 2011       Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Rio (Fox)                [$26  ]    $27.5   $11.2     $157 ++
Madea's Big Happy Family [$31  ]    $26.0   $10.7     $ 59
Water for Elephants (Fox)[$16  ]    $16.8   $ 7.0     $ 45
Hop (Uni)                [$ 9  ]    $12.0   $ 4.4     $126 ++
African Cats (Dis)       [$ 7  ]    $ 7.3   $ 3.2     $ 21
Scre4m (Weins)           [$ 8.5]    $ 6.0   $ 2.4     $ 43 --
Soul Surfer (Tri)        [ N/A ]    $ 5.9   $ 2.2     $ 44
Insidious (FilmDis)      [ N/A ]    $ 5.4   $ 2.1     $ 57
Source Code (Sum)        [ N/A ]    $ 5.3   $ 1.8     $ 58
Hanna (Foc)              [ N/A ]    $ 4.7   $ 1.7     $ 45
Arthur (WB)              [ N/A ]    $ 4.4   $ 1.7     $ 39

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total.  This is a huge increase from comparable weekends the past few years.   


Top 12 Films: Fourth Weekend in April
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $125  (+49% vs 2007-10 average; +39% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 84  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 90  Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6 
2009  $104  Obsessed $29, Fighting $11, The Soloist $10, Earth $9
2008  $ 80  Baby Mama $17, Harold & Kumar Escape $15,Deception $2
2007  $ 62  The Invisible $8, Next $7, Condemned $4

Next weekend should also be solid.  Opening next week are Fast Five from Universal, Prom from Disney, Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil from Weinstein, and Dylan Dog: Dead of Night from Freestyle Releasing.  Look for Fast Five to make the most noise and ignite the entire weekend.  Also, Rio should continue to do well.  These strong films will be enough to fuel increase from the same weekend last year when A Nightmare on Elm Street opened with $33 million and Furry Vengeance struggled with a little more than $6 million.  A positive weekend would be the third in a row, and as movies do well they provide a platform for trailers of upcoming films, creating a cycle of success for future weekends and the summer season itself.

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers. 

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WEEKEND ACTUALS: The Year Keeps Looking Worse

12:40 PM | Labels: , , , , ,

Compared to the ShowbuzzDaily Forecasts, the weekend numbers for the three opening movies were in the right rank order, although Hop vastly exceeded its forecast.  Source Code and Insidious were much closer to their predictions.  At the end of the day, Hop should be considered a success for Universal, the ultra-low cost Insidious will be a success for newcomer FilmDistrict, and Source Code will be a moderate disappointment for Summit.  In their second week, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules and Sucker Punch both declined more than expected in their second week.  Weekend actuals were down a bit from Studio Estimates -- for example, Universal's numbers yesterday were roughly $500,000 higher than the actuals.  (The higher number on Sunday was just enough for Universal to claim Hop's opening was higher than Rango's.)  This is an example of studio "rounding up," a topic discussed on Showbuzz Basics.


April 1-3, 2010      Showbuzz      Studio         Weekend
                     Forecast     Estimate         Actual
Hop (Uni)              $24.5        $38.2          $37.5
Source Code (Sum)      $15          $15.1          $14.8
Insidious (FilmDis)    $10.5        $13.5          $13.3
Diary Wimpy Kid 2(Fox) $11.5        $10.2          $10.0
Limitless (Rel)        $10          $ 9.4          $ 9.3
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)    $ 8          $ 7.1          $ 6.8
Sucker Punch (WB)      $ 7.5        $ 6.1          $ 6.0
Rango (Par)            n/a          $ 4.6          $ 4.5
Paul (Uni)             n/a          $ 4.3          $ 4.2
Battle: LA (Sony)      n/a          $ 3.5          $ 3.5
Adjustment Bureau(Uni) n/a          $ 2.2          $ 2.2
Red Riding Hood (WB)   n/a          $ 1.8          $ 1.8

Top 7 (Forecast) Total $87          $99.6          $97.7



Limited Release Openings

In limited release, In a Better World was the best of the bunch, opening with a decent but not great $8,2656 average at 4 theaters.  Queen to Play opened with $4,682 at 6 theaters, Super opened with $4,232 at 11 theaters, and Trust opened with an average $2,079 at 28 theaters.  Finally, The Last Godfather tanked with a $1,776 average at 58 theaters, and Cat Run bombed with an average $291 at 103 locations.

 The Past Week

Shifting our view from the weekend top 12 films to the past seven days, all films in wide release playing between March 28 and April 3 grossed $148 million, down 15% from the 2007-10 average for the comparable week and down an amazing 36% from the same week in 2010.  These tough to swallow weekly numbers had a negative impact on the yearly figures.  Year to date, all films now are down 8% from the comparable four-year average and now down a stunning 21% from 2010's box office numbers (driven by Clash of the Titans, Alice in Wonderland and the final weeks of Avatar).  The pressure on the summer to perform just continues to increase.  Speaking of that, we will be handicapping the summer slate soon.  Stay tuned.


Mar 28-Apr 3       (millions)
                      4yr             vs      vs
              2010    Avg     2011    Avg     2010

Week #13      $232    $174    $148    -15%    -36%

Year to Date  $2872   $2467   $2272   - 8%    -21%

Check back tomorrow for updated international numbers for current movies in release.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 1-3: Hop Shines But Weekend Sags

9:37 AM | Labels: , , , ,

Based on actual box office numbers Friday and Saturday (and studio projections for Sunday), Hop is now looking like a $38 million weekend, far exceeding the ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  Source Code now exactly matches the forecast, while ultra-low-cost Insidious will beat its forecast by $3 million.  Last July, Despicable Me grossed $251 million domestically, $289 million overseas and $126 million on DVD (for a devilishly good $666 million total).  If Hop has a similar after-market profile, the bunny movie is looking at turning the $129 million Showbuzz Domestic Ultimate into a $350 worldwide and home video take.  Now that's real money.  A movie like Source Code, with a very average $46 million estimated domestic take, looks like a $100 million total if we factor in an estimated $40 million overseas and $15 million DVD.  On Tuesday look for an update of international figures for all movies in release because just keeping an eye on domestic box office does not tell the whole story. 



April 1-3, 2011                            vs    Showbuzz
                       Showbuzz   Studio  Last   Domestic
                       Forecast   Prjectn Wknd   Ultimate
Hop (Uni)                $24.5     $38.2           $129
Source Code (Sum)        $15       $15.1           $46
Insidious (FilmDis)      $10.5     $13.5           $33
Diary Wimpy Kid 2 (Fox)  $11.5     $10.2  -57%     $59
Limitless (Rel)          $10       $ 9.4  -38%     $84
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)      $ 8       $ 7.1  -34%     $62
Sucker Punch (WB)        $ 7.5     $ 6.1  -68%     $38
Rango (Par)              n/a       $ 4.6  -53%     $129
Paul (Uni)               n/a       $ 4.3  -45%     $45
Battle: LA (Sony)        n/a       $ 3.5  -54%     $85
Adjustment Bureau (Uni)  n/a       $ 2.2  -49%     $66
Red Riding Hood (WB)     n/a       $ 1.8  -58%     $38


Opening in very limited release, In a Better World turns in a so-so $8,845 weekend average at four theaters.  Similarly, Queen to Play averaged a soft $5,445 at six locations.  [CORRECTION: These averages have been corrected from an earlier version of the post.]  At the extreme end of the indie spectrum, Trust averaged a paltry $2,144 at 28 theaters.   

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like they will total $116 million -- down 9% from the four-year average for this comparable weekend and down fully 31% from a stellar weekend last year (juiced up by Clash of the Titans and Tyler Perry).  This weekend was looking a little stronger yesterday, but the films at the lower end of the Top 12 did not have strong Saturdays, bringing down the entire slate despite some strength at the top. 



Top 12 Films: First Weekend in April

     Volume
2011  $116  (-9% vs 2007-10 average; -31% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $127  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $169  Clash Titans $61, Why Married Too $29, Last Song $16
2009  $149  Fast & Furious $71, Adventureland $6 
2008  $ 80  Nim's Island $13, Leatherheads $13, The Ruins $8
2007  $110  Are We Done Yet? $14, Grindhouse $12, The Reaping $10

Looking ahead to next weekend, four new movies open, including a rare same-genre showdown featuring two comedies: 

  Arthur (Warner Bros) -- Remake starring acquired taste Russell Brand.  Can he open a film?
  Your Highness (Universal) -- Can James Franco bounce back from Oscars in this comedy?
  Soul Surfer (TriStar) -- AnnaSophia Robb plays armless surfer Bethany Hamilton.
  Hanna (Focus) -- Spy Cate Blanchett tracks a teenager raised to be an assassin.

The movies above will be compared against a relatively soft weekend historically.  The second weekend in April has averaged $106 million the last four years and was $119 million last year when Date Night starring Steve Carell and Tina Fey (the sole opener) bowed with $25 million.  Maybe we will see some plus-signs in the year-to-year comparisons?

Reminder: on Tuesday we will update the international numbers for current films and take a look at the home video market. 


--Mitch Metcalf

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HOP: Easter Egg Over Easy

3:59 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Watch It At Home

People complain that Hollywood doesn't take risks, but Universal went and hired the director of Alvin and the Chipmunks to make a movie about a musical-minded, free-spirit digitally animated character who upturns the life of an ordinary guy... talk about pushing the envelope!  (In fairness, Alvin was a chipmunk singer, while EB is a bunny who plays the drums, so you couldn't actually confuse the two.  And Alvin had brothers.)  Facetiousness aside, the only hit Universal's had in the past couple of years was Despicable Me, and so the new HOP is not only produced by the Despicable production company, but it combines strains from Alvin, Despicable and Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory for a hybrid that's predictably synthetic but mildly, inoffensively entertaining.  

In the mythology of Hop, the Easter Bunny is a hereditary title, passed to the next generation along with magic powers and control of a giant candy factory.  (Which is located on Easter Island--there's wit for you!)  The visuals of the factory look like the Everlasting Gobstopper room must be just around the next corner, but instead of Oompa-Loompas, the menial labor is performed by chicks, who act more or less like the Minions in Despicable Me.  The current Bunny In Chief (voice of Hugh Laurie) has an untrustworthy chicken assistant (Hank Azaria), who schemes to take over when Bunny's plan to turn over things to his son EB (Russell Brand) are scuttled when EB flees to LA so he can pursue his dream of being a drummer instead of running the family business.  By now, you're probably wondering who wrote this thing:  script by Cinco Paul, Ken Dauno (both of whom also wrote Despicable Me) and Brian Lynch.

Anyway, EB fairly literally runs into Fred (James Marsden), who after the initial shock of meeting a digitally animated bunny who talks like Russell Brand and plays the drums, settles down to becoming EB's best buddy.  Oh, and Fred is crazy about the Easter Bunny, since catching a glimpse of him as a child.  Which is good, because the evil Azaria is leading a revolution back on Easter Island--and frankly, as real-world monarchs and Presidents-for-life topple around the world, it would be easy to favor some regime change for the oppressed chickens against their ruler rabbits, except that Azaria pecks all the digital scenery in sight as the Spanish-accented (?) villain, making it harder to support NATO intervention here.
In a year that's given us Mars Needs Moms and Wimpy Kid 2, Hop is at least moderately pleasant to watch.  Brand is actually a good choice as an animated lead--obviously the PG rating doesn't let him do much of what he normally does, but he has the ability to make his lines sound a bit spontaneous. The humans, though, are utterly bland:  Marsden, who was--sorry--charming as the clueless Prince in Enchanted, can't get anything going here, and even reliable actors like Gary Cole and Ellizabeth Perkins are left hanging.  Don't ask about the cameos by Hugh Hefner (bunnies, get it?  I said BUNNIES) and David Hasselhoff.

A Hollywood irony:  although the whole focal point of Hop is Easter (albeit a totally non-sectarian one that according to the dialogue started 4000 years ago), Universal clearly didn't have any faith in the picture competing with Fox's Rio, which opens April 16.  So Hop is reaching theatres 3 weeks before the holiday, and will probably be mostly gone by the time that day arrives.  It's never too soon for the kids to learn about release schedules.  (For more on what goes into movie scheduling, see Mitch Metcalf's article here.)

(HOP - Universal - PG - 95 min. - Director:  Tim Hill - Script:  Cinco Paul, Ken Duano, Brian Lynch - Cast:  Russell Brand, James Marsden, Hugh Laurie, Hank Azaria - Wide Release)

--Mitch Salem

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Box Office Footnotes

1:39 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Warners is claiming that Sucker Punch cost around $80M, which given the scale of the film suggests either admirable cost-effectiveness or a lowball number--in any case, word of mouth is likely to be terrible (see my review, not to mention that its overall Rotten Tomatoes number is at 20%), so it's doubtful to get past red ink.

In Wimpy Kid 2, Fox has a modestly-budgeted franchise that should be able to crank out sequels for the next several years.

Lack of any new adult-skewing product helped Limitless (review) and Lincoln Lawyer (review) to solid holds.

In limited debuts, Miral is riding its controversy to around $17.5K in each of 4 theatres (review); Potiche
should do about $10K in each of 8 theatres (review); Peep World is headed for around $2K in each of 3 theatres (review); and White Irish Drinkers may do around $4K in each of 6 theatres. Meanwhile, Jane Eyre expanded to a very nice $10K or so in each of 90 theatres, and Win Win likewise should get to around $17.5K in each of 23 theatres (review). 

Next week doesn't bring much in the way of major openings: the thriller Source Code (Summit) with Jake Gyllenhaal, the Easter-timed animated Hop (Universal) with the voice of Russell Brand (preceding Brand's live-action Arthur by 1 week), and the haunted house thrill ride Insidious (FilmDistrict).  Also, for curiosity Weinstein Company will put its pre-DVD PG-13 version of The King's Speech into 1000 theatres.  Limited releases include the Foreign-Language Oscar winner In A Better World (Sony Classics) and the very violent comic-book parody Super (IFC).

--Mitch Salem
 

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