The biggest gainer in the international box office this week was The Smurfs. Now with an overseas total of $321 million, The Smurfs has moved past Thor into the #9 position.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes is starting to stall out overseas and will probably remain in 11th place, just behind Thor.
The Help is just behind #25 (Mr. Popper's Penguins). With only $4 million overseas, The Help will not big a big player internationally, but it should pick up enough in the next week or two to make its way into the Top 25 chart. 
Showing posts with label thor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label thor. Show all posts
INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS September 11
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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS July 31
Three films are now in or projected to be in the $1 billion worldwide box office club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Transformers: Dark of the Moon. Clearly, movies with long titles (not surprisngly blockbuster sequels) are being rewarded and embraced around the world.
The three films opening in North America this weekend are debuting on the worldwide gross list outside the Top 20: The Smurfs at #27 ($122 million projected total domestic and $4 million overseas to date), Cowboys & Aliens at #34 ($98 million projected domestic total and no overseas gross to date) and Crazy, Stupid, Love at #48 ($72 million projected domestic and no overseas to date).
Captain America is just getting going overseas and will probably end up at #9, just behind Thor.
A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: Paramount
With a summer movie season bracketed by the first weekend in May on one end, and Labor Day on the other, we've reached the midpoint of 2011's array of blockbusters, and for the next week, here at SHOWBUZZDAILY, we'll be providing our judgments on how the studios are doing. US Grosses are as of July 4, 2011; Overseas Grosses are as of July 3,2011.
Today; Sumner Redstone's Shop
MOVIES IN RELEASE
THOR
US Release: May 6
US Gross: $177,988,100
Overseas Gross: $261,700,000
Worldwide Total: $439,688,100
KUNG FU PANDA 2
US Release: June 24
US Gross: $157,281,396
Overseas Gross: $379,298,005 Worldwide Total: $536,579,401
SUPER 8
US Release: June 10
US Gross: $110,070,156
Overseas Gross: $45,000,000
Worldwide Total: $155,070,156
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
US Release: June 29
US Gross: $180,651,397
Overseas Gross: $237,359,667Worldwide Total: $418,011,064
THE MONEY
With over $600M in domestic boxoffice so far and over $900M overseas (and both of those numbers are with Transformers just having opened), Paramount is having a healthy summer--although due to its conservative financing strategies, perhaps not quite as lucrative as it looks.
Even with a $200M production cost plus another $150M or so for worldwide marketing, THOR should turn a comfortable profit (the sequel's opening date has already been set for July 26, 2013). However, it was self-financed by Marvel Studios, leaving Paramount with a distribution fee that's good to have but not the same as ownership. (And now that Disney owns Marvel, Paramount's own studio competitor will reap those benefits in the long-term.)
Similarly, KUNG FU PANDA 2 is a DreamWorks Animation production that's merely distributed by Paramount. Even with 3D ticket premiums, the US gross won't measure up to the original Kung Fu's $215M earnings, but as with other franchises, the overseas revenues may more than make up for that. However, Paramount again will only have a slice of those monies as distributor.
SUPER 8 was produced by Paramount, and on a budget (they claim $50M, although it'd be hard to find many non-employees who believe that). More realistically, the combination of production and marketing costs probably comes to around $200M. With its US theatrical release almost done, the picture will need some healthy overseas business to show much profit, and Paramount is rolling it out slowly, so we're probably weeks away from knowing whether the ultimate ink will be black. In any case, it won't be a box-office bonanza.
Like, for example, TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON. It's possible Transformers 3 will "only" make $350M domestically, but it has an excellent chance of overperforming internationally, and getting to at least the $835M worldwide level of Transformers 2. It's a co-production with DreamWorks, and not only does that mean a profit split, but doubtless the studios have to give large chunks of the back-end to director Michael Bay and Executive Producer Steven Spielberg; this, however, is what's called a "good" problem. Not only that, but the franchise is sure to continue, and it's much less tied to casting than, say, Pirates of the Caribbean (in other words, would anyone miss Shia LaBoeuf if he weren't there?). So those robots could keep crunching each other for many installments to come.
Even with a $200M production cost plus another $150M or so for worldwide marketing, THOR should turn a comfortable profit (the sequel's opening date has already been set for July 26, 2013). However, it was self-financed by Marvel Studios, leaving Paramount with a distribution fee that's good to have but not the same as ownership. (And now that Disney owns Marvel, Paramount's own studio competitor will reap those benefits in the long-term.)
Similarly, KUNG FU PANDA 2 is a DreamWorks Animation production that's merely distributed by Paramount. Even with 3D ticket premiums, the US gross won't measure up to the original Kung Fu's $215M earnings, but as with other franchises, the overseas revenues may more than make up for that. However, Paramount again will only have a slice of those monies as distributor.
SUPER 8 was produced by Paramount, and on a budget (they claim $50M, although it'd be hard to find many non-employees who believe that). More realistically, the combination of production and marketing costs probably comes to around $200M. With its US theatrical release almost done, the picture will need some healthy overseas business to show much profit, and Paramount is rolling it out slowly, so we're probably weeks away from knowing whether the ultimate ink will be black. In any case, it won't be a box-office bonanza.
Like, for example, TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON. It's possible Transformers 3 will "only" make $350M domestically, but it has an excellent chance of overperforming internationally, and getting to at least the $835M worldwide level of Transformers 2. It's a co-production with DreamWorks, and not only does that mean a profit split, but doubtless the studios have to give large chunks of the back-end to director Michael Bay and Executive Producer Steven Spielberg; this, however, is what's called a "good" problem. Not only that, but the franchise is sure to continue, and it's much less tied to casting than, say, Pirates of the Caribbean (in other words, would anyone miss Shia LaBoeuf if he weren't there?). So those robots could keep crunching each other for many installments to come.
THE QUALITY
The conservatism of Paramount's business strategy is matched by its creative vision.
Thor is a pompous superhero tale with more spectacle than is good for it, narratively speaking. Luckily for Paramount and Marvel, it opened the same summer as Green Lantern, which has made all other superhero movies around it look better by comparison.
Kung Fu Panda 2 is a fairly high-quality sequel, and marks perhaps the first time in their shared history that DreamWorks can claim higher storytelling marks than Pixar. But both sequels pale next to Paramount's own springtime Rango and Fox's Rio in terms of imagination and high-intensity fun.
Super 8 is an "original" story only in the most technical sense of the term, being a slavish homage to the Spielberg films of the 1970s and early 80s. Creatively, it's entertaining but entirely second-hand.
Transformers 3 is... well, it's better than the other Transformers movies. So there's that.
STILL TO COME
CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER - July 22: Oddly enough, this picture may best be remembered as the longest and most expensive trailer ever, for next summer's Marvel extravaganza THE AVENGERS... which will be released by Disney. Captain America itself, shoehorned in between Harry Potter and Cowboys and Aliens, could find itself overlooked, and the middling success of X-Men: First Class suggests some audience resistance to the notion of period superhero movies. After America's release, the studio sits out the month of August (probably to the great relief of its marketing department).
MIDSUMMER GRADES:
THE MONEY: B-: Paramount has avoided any financial black holes, but it has limited a generous upside by distributing rather than owning too many pictures.
THE QUALITY: B-: The studio hasn't released anything terrible, nor anything that's even tried to be great. It's a factory, and so far none of its summer products have needed to be recalled--or remembered.
Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.
Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES MAY 13-15: Bridesmaids Opens Solidly While Thor Remains #1
Solid opening for Bridesmaids, Priest disappoints, and Thor remains #1. Nonetheless, the weekend is down only a bit versus last year, when Robin Hood opened and Iron Man 2's second weekend was #1.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Bridesmaids should finish its run with $90 million domestic (with upside), while Priest should finish with around $30 million, if that. Thor is now looking like $205 million, and Fast Five is locking in on $212 million. After a surprisingly strong fifth weekend (go figure) Rio has been upgraded back to $147 million.
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Bridesmaids opened with $24.4 million, averaging a solid $8,362 per theater at 2,918 theaters. Priest opened with $14.5 million, playing on 2,864 theaters and averaging $5,063.
May 13-15, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Thor (Par) $34.5 -48% $205
Bridesmaids (Uni) $24.4 $ 90
Fast Five (Uni) $19.5 -40% $212
Priest (Sony) $14.5 $ 32
Rio (Fox) $ 8.0 - 6% $147
Jumping the Broom (Sony) $ 7.3 -52% $ 43
Something Borrowed (WB) $ 7.0 -50% $ 38
Water for Elephants (Fox) $ 4.1 -32% $ 58
Madea's Big Happy Family (LG) $ 2.2 -47% $ 53
Soul Surfer (Sony) $ 1.8 -22% $ 44
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Early International View
So far, Thor has now grossed $198 million overseas, while Fast Five is at $215 million total. (Note: international numbers will be updated and tallied late Monday or early Tuesday.)
Total Weekend Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total, down 5%. The weekend total is about $10 million higher than yesterday's because of across the board strength in Saturday movie attendance. The year-to-date numbers will be updated tomorrow when the official weekend numbers are in.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #19
(millions)
Volume
2011 $125 (-11% vs 2007-10 average; -5% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $140
Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $131 Robin Hood $36, Letters to Juliet $13, Just Wright $8
2009 $131 Angels & Demons $46
2008 $126 Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $55
2007 $174 Shrek the Third $122
Next Weekend
Opening next week is the period comedy Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides from Disney (the fourth in the series). This blockbuster will be compared against Shrek Forever After's $71 million opening weekend on 5.21-23.2010....and don't forget the ill-fated MacGruber with $4 million the same weekend. Next weekend will be a good opportunity for 2011 to get back on track with an up weekend.
To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post. Also, check out Mitch Salem's review of Bridesmaids and Priest.
On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release.
SHOWBUZZDAILY SUMMER MOVIE BLOCKBUSTER DRAFT UPDATE
In future weeks, we'll have a spiffy chart to keep you current on the progress of our Summer Movie Blockbuster Draft, but for now it's pretty simple:
Team MetcalfTHOR: $84,752,317
Team Salem
$0
Over at Team Salem, I'd like to note that this somewhat lopsided total is because none of my movies have opened yet (and the pain is about to get worse, as Mitch M has BRIDESMAIDS starting today and I still have nothing). But just wait a couple of weeks, till PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 opens...
To read all about our Summer Movie Draft click HERE
To read all about our Summer Movie Draft click HERE
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES MAY 6-8: Thor and Fast Five Carry the Weekend
Thor opens solidly but not enough to push the weekend past Iron Man 2's torrid pace last year.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Thor should finish its run with $190 million, while Fast Five has been upgraded to $212 million and Rio has been downgraded slightly to $138 million. The other openers, Jumping to Broom and Something Borrowed are in the $30-35 million total domestic range.
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Thor opened with $66.0 million, averaging a very good $16,700 per theater at 3,955 theaters. Jumping the Broom opened with $13.7 million, playing on 2,035 theaters and averaging $6,700. Something Borrowed opened with $13.2 million, averaging $4,500 per theater at 2,904 theaters.
May 6-8, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Thor (Par) $66 $190
Fast Five (Uni) $32.5 -62% $212
Something Borrowed (WB) $13.2 $ 32
Jumping the Broom (Sony) $13.7 $ 35
Rio (Fox) $ 8.2 -45% $138
Water for Elephants (Fox) $ 5.6 -40% $ 56
Madea's Big Happy Family (LG) $ 3.9 -60% $ 54
Prom (Dis) $ 2.4 -49% $ 12
Soul Surfer (Sony) $ 2.1 -38% $ 41
Hoodwinked Too! (Weins) $ 1.9 -54% $ 9
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Early International View
So far, Thor has grossed $133 million overseas, while Fast Five is at $111 million total. (Note: international numbers will be updated and tallied late Monday or early Tuesday.)
Total Weekend Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $152 million total, down 11% from last year but up 15% from the average for this weekend the last four years. The year-to-date numbers will be updated tomorrow when the official weekend numbers are in.
Top 12 Films: First Full Weekend of May
(millions)
Volume
2011 $152 (+15% vs 2007-10 average; -11% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $132
Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $171 Iron Man 2 $128, Babies $2
2009 $143 Star Trek $75, Next Day Air $4
2008 $118 What Happens in Vegas $20, Speed Racer $18
2007 $ 96 28 Weeks Later $10, Georgia Rule $7, Delta Farce $3
The Week Ahead
On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release.
Box Office Footnotes
The weekend multiples this week are a little high for movies that skew to women like Something Borrowed, Jumping the Broom and Water for Elephants due to Mother's Day, when many families treat mom to a flick.
The Thor number looks a little less impressive when you compare it to mid-level comic book movies of the recent past like Fantastic Four ($56M in 2005), its sequel ($58M in 2007) and The Incredible Hulk ($55M in 2008)--then remember Thor is the only one getting 3D premiums in its ticket prices. We'll see how word of mouth treats it. However, next week its only new direct competition is Priest, which doesn't look like much of a challenge.
Although Something Borrowed and Jumping the Broom are both "women's" movies that are opening to almost identical numbers, their paths getting there are very different. Broom is Tri-Star's second consecutive successsful appeal to the faith-based audience (after Soul Surfer), while Borrowed follows the standard Warners marketing plan of big-ticket network TV buys. When the dust has settled, if the two filims stay on track with each other, Broom should be the far more profitable picture.
Hats off to FilmDistrict, which will see Insidious hit $50M this weekend, on an investment and marketing plan that's practically pocket change for Hollywood. (The much higher budgeted Scre4m, in comparison, will struggle to hit $40M.)
Mitch Metcalf already mentioned it above, but it's worth noting again that this weekend probably marks the end of Mel Gibson's mainstream career as a movie star. Despite decent reviews (especially for his performance) and a careful opening in 22 locations, audiences just had zero interest in The Beaver. It's hard to feel too bad about it, considering what we now know about him. Bad luck guy of the decade: writer Kyle Killen, who in the space of 1 year has had his TV series "Lone Star" get cancelled after 3 episodes and now his film debut go down the tubes; he's got a new pilot in contention for next season, so maybe his luck is turning around (but the project is at NBC, so maybe not).
THOR: Hammered
Watch It At Home: The God of Thunder Musters a Tinny Roar.
Put it this way: the new superhero epic THOR cost something like $150M to produce, required the diligent services of hundreds of professionals over a period of 2 years, is being presented with all the trappings of IMAX, 3D and super-stereo, and yet there's not a moment in it as exciting--let alone as much fun--as last night's paintball episode of "Community." Now "Community"s paintball episodes are completely awesome, so that's a fairly high standard... but still.
Thor isn't the worst superhero picture to come our way (remember the Fantastic Four movies? the Joel Schumacher Batmans? Superman: The Quest for Peace?), but it may be the most underwhelming. Marvel presumably hired Kenneth Branagh to direct because of his association with Shakespearean drama (it certainly wasn't because of his action movie chops), and under his helm the picture presents itself with extreme seriousness--the hero's backstory is interweaved with Norse mythology, which here takes place in an Asgard located in outer space, and Thor himself, not a mere immigrant from his planet a la Superman, is essentially a god. The Asgard scenes take place in massive, fake-looking sets that look like they were re-lit from Cecil B DeMille's Egyptian palaces in The Ten Commandments, with equally phony CG landscapes that seem modeled after the matte paintings in David Lynch's version of Dune. In case that wasn't enough, no less than Anthony Hopkins was brought in to roar his way through the role of the one-eyed King Odin, father of Thor (if I was hearing correctly, he's called "Allfather," although it's not clear if that's his convenient last name or a salute to his parenting skills).
As written by Ashley Edward Miller, Zack Stentz and Don Payne (from a story by J. Michael Straczynski and Mark Protosevich), the Asgard section of the tale gives Thor (Chris Hemsworth) an evil brother Loki (Tom Hiddleston)--we know Loki is evil because he's made up to look like Richard E. Grant (unlike Thor's robustly Aryan good looks) and he turns out to be adopted--who plots with the nearby ice people (kinged by Colm Feore behind a lot of digital effects) to take advantage of Thor's impulsive arrogance and depose Odin, banish Thor to Earth and take over the throne. But not to worry, Thor still has 4 warrior buddies on Asgard--a fat one, a hot babe, an inexplicably Asian one, and one who looks oddly like the young Kenneth Branagh--to protect his interests. Meanwhile, back in banishment (specifically New Mexico), Thor crashes to Earth right in the path of spunky, lovely young scientist Jane (Natalie Portman, this having been shot before she knew Black Swan was about to change her career), her kooky sidekick Darcy (the criminally underused Kat Dennings, from Nick and Nora's Infinite Playlist) and mentor Erik (Stellan Skarsgard, Hollywood's go-to professor). This will come as a shock, but spunky scientist Jane finds herself falling for the hunky god-in-exile, while he learns a handy lesson about appreciating humanity and accepting self-sacrifice, which is useful because--did I mention?--only when Thor shows he is worthy can he regain possession of his magic hammer Mjolnir, which apparently has been watching "Camelot" on Starz and is stuck immovable in a rock until such time as a worthy god can retrieve it. And since this is a Marvel movie and everything has to lead to their megafranchise Avengers picture next year, Clark Gregg from Iron Man (and eventually Samuel L Jackson) are lurking around, although how Thor will connect with SHIELD is left unclear in this installment.And you know what? All of that, as dumb and dense as it is, would be fine if the movie were just enjoyable (try talking yourself through the storyline of Batman Begins one day). Branagh does some things right--he gets humor from Hemsworth, Portman and Dennings in the fish-out-of-water New Mexico scenes, and Hiddleston is a fine villain once you realize he's going to act like the "trusted" family friend in 1940s movies who turns out to be a Nazi spy. There's also one genuinely cool CG moment when a giant robot Loki's sent to Earth manages to reverse itself back-to-front without turning around. But Branagh doesn't know how to edit the action sequences--he completely muffs the big moment when Thor regains his powers--and the script, which probably went through many more writers than those credited, dribbles off at the end, so the final confrontation between Thor and Loki has so little impact you expect the real climax to follow. (The 3D, as increasingly expected, is virtually without impact.) Even the coda scene (you have to sit through all 10 minutes of credits to get there, unlike Fast Five, which mercifully lets the audience go after the first couple of minutes) delivers less of a set-up for the next chapter than you'd hope.
Thor's florid tone is completely different from the more sophisticated, character-based wit of the Iron Man series (not to mention those of the two failed Hulk movies), which makes one wonder just how they're planning to bind them all together for The Avengers. But that's next summer's problem. The good thing about summer blockbusters is that they're like buses--if the first one that stops doesn't look like a comfortable ride, just wait and there'll be another. The buses have just started to run for Summer 2011, so let's hope the vehicles to come have better engines.
(THOR - Paramount/Marvel - 117 minutes - PG 13 - Director: Kenneth Branagh - Script: Ashley Edward Miller, Zack Stentz, Don Payne (story by J. Michael Straczynski, Mark Protosevich) - Cast: Chris Hemsworth, Natalie Portman, Tom Hiddleston, Anthony Hopkins, Stellan Skarsgard, Clark Gregg, Kat Dennings, Idris Elba, Colm Feore, Ray Stevenson, Tadanobu Asano, Josh Dallas, Jaimie Alexander - Wide Release)
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS MAY 6-8: Thor Will Be Big But Enough to Propel Another Up Weekend?
Thor appears to be headed for a solid opening but not enough to push the weekend up versus last year (when Iron Man 2 opened huge). Two other openers, both romantic comedies, should have minimal impact.
Opening at over 3,500 theaters, Thor should average a very good $19,000 per theater (for $67 million total). Although this is a very solid opening, it will be compared to Iron Man 2's $128 million opening weekend ($29,252 average at 4,380 theaters). After three up weekends in a row, the box office should be down again this weekend. Nonetheless, Thor currently boasts an 88% positive review number at RottenTomatoes, suggesting the film could play longer than most comic/ action films.
The other opening films, two comedies aimed at women, should have minimal impact. Playing at fewer theaters (about 1,900), Jumping the Broom should average $5,400 (slightly above the average number for all wide-release films). With a largely African-American cast, this film has the potential to beat a modest $10 million opening weekend forecast if it clicks with African-Americans, a very loyal movie audience segment. In contrast, Something Borrowed should average only $3,900 at 2,900 theaters. This film feels like it is very likely to hit its $11 million forecast but then go away very quickly.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
May 6-8 Positive Weekend Total*
.
Thor Par PG13 88% $67 $195
Something Borrowed WB PG13 16% $11 $ 24
Jumping the Broom Sony PG13 33% $10 $ 28
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Fast Five is the one returning film looking to have an impact this weekend. However, the 56% decline in its second weekend suggests the action film will not have an unusually long play in theaters. Nonetheless, an estimated $185 million total domestic gross is nothing to scoff at, especially when paired with huge international numbers. (We will have updated international numbers Monday or Tuesday). The other returning films appear to be headed for weekends below $10 million.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
Fast Five Uni -56% $38 $185
Rio Fox -42% $ 9 $150
Water for Elephants Fox -35% $ 6 $ 57
Madea's Big Happy Fam. LG -56% $ 4.5 $ 61
Hoodwinked Too! Weins -38% $ 2.5 $ 7
Prom Dis -47% $ 2.5 $ 11
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $132 million total, ranking 19th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $171 million, and May 8-10, 2009 was $143 million. This weekend is looking like $155 million: the first down weekend in four weeks.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday's actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have a complete wrap-up based on the actual full-weekend numbers. Traditionally, the first weekend in May supports one huge movie to kick off "summer", with a few much smaller films going along for the ride.
5.7.10
Iron Man 2 PAR PG13 Robert Downey Jr Gwyneth Paltrow
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $155 Actual: $128
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $327 Actual: $312
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $310
Babies UNI PG
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9 Actual: $7
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
5.8.09
Star Trek PAR PG13 Chris Pine Zachary Quinto
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $67 Actual: $75
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $261 Actual: $258
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $127
Next Day Air SUMMIT R Donald Faison Mos Def
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9 Actual: $10
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Box Office Footnotes
This Week: Don't Miss ShowbuzzDaily's First Annual Summer Blockbuster Draft!
The last weekend of April is an odd one for Hollywood: as Mitch Metcalf's analysis shows,sometimes it begins the parade of summer franchises, and in other years it's just the quiet end of Spring. Fast Five, of course, puts 2011 firmly in the former category--in fact, with positive word of mouth likely, Marvel and Paramount have to be a little nervous about how much it'll damage Thor next week. (Particularly Marvel, since Thor, with July's Captain America, provides the lead-in to next year's megafranchise movie The Avengers).
Tyler Perry's movies always have steep Week 2 drops, so Big Happy Family's fall isn't unusual. But the Water for Elephants hold, considering its genre, won't do much for the bankability of Robert Pattinson or Reese Witherspoon--plus next week it'll face Something Borrowed, a better movie.
Prom is just an appetizer to Disney's giant summer offerings, but even with limited expectations, it's failing to deliver. Hoodwinked Too must have been green-lit with the movie mogul equivalent of beer goggles.
Second-guessing release patterns is a Hollywood sport, but one has to wonder if Focus and Fox Searchlight are questioning their decisions to slowly roll out Jane Eyre and Win Win, respectively, since they'll each reach $10M at best. A few years ago, they would at least have found an audience on homevideo, but with the buttom having dropped out of that business, there's not much revenue left for them. The same holds true for The Conspirator, while Atlas Shrugged Part I proved the audience of Ayn Rand fans to be as front-loaded as teenage girls.
Next weekend's most interesting debut won't be its biggest: Summit will open the problematic (for many reasons) Mel Gibson vehicle The Beaver in just 20 theatres and hope for the best before they expand.
Boxoffice Footnotes
Among Tyler Perry movies that feature his Madea character, BIG HAPPY FAMILY is looking relatively weak, but it may have a big Easter Sunday. Other pictures likely to benefit from family crowds include RIO, HOP and SOUL SURFER.
On the other hand, the teen girl crowd typically turns out opening night, which could give WATER FOR ELEPHANTS a shaky weekend multiple. It could have a decent hold next week, though (until SOMETHING BORROWED opens May 6).
SCRE4M collapsed, not unexpectedly, so unless they take a shot at 3D, that franchise is probably done. Ditto for YOUR HIGHNESS. INSIDIOUS, though, continues to mint money.
CONSPIRATOR didn't have a promising 2d weekend, headed for around $3K per theatre in 848. ATLAS SHRUGGED PART I fared even worse, adding 50% more theatres but plummeting by half. Don't hold your breath for Part II.
WIN WIN added some more theatres and held steady--it may hit a $10M or so total, as may JANE EYRE.
Next week will be all FAST FIVE; the interesting question is whether that will be so big that it can challenge THOR"s opening the following week. Early grosses in Australia, where both films have already opened, suggest Thor may not be a sure thing.
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