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Showing posts with label phantom menace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label phantom menace. Show all posts

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:40 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

The seventh weekend of 2012 is another good one, running ahead of last year and the multi-year average for this weekend.  The Vow should hold on to the top spot, with Safe House a close #2, and Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance opening in third place for the weekend.  This Means War is basically shut out and continues the tough losing streak for Reese Witherspoon.    

Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance opened with $7.0 million Friday for an estimated $20.4 million for the traditional three-day weekend, way below the $27.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The Nicolas Cage sequel is wheezing toward $6,400 average on 3,174 screens.  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance is headed for a preliminary $54 million total domestic. 


This Means War opened with $5.6 million Friday for $16.6 million Friday-Sunday, hitting the lackluster $16.5 million prediction.  The latest from Reese Witherspoon weekend average should be around $5,200 at 3,189 theaters.  This Means War is headed for a preliminary $44 million domestic. 

The Secret World of Arrietty opened with $1.7 million Friday on track for $6.6 million this weekend, above the very modest $4.2 million forecast.  Arrietty is on track for $25 million total domestic.

The Vow's second Friday edged Ghost Rider 2's opening night (finishing #1 with $7.4 million).  A second weekend is more evenly distributed across all the days than an opening weekend (which is more skewed toward Friday) -- so The Vow will cruise to #1 this weekend (-40% from the opening weekend), while Safe House should finish second (-41%), pushing Nic Cage to #3.  We have upgraded the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate for The Vow to $150 million, Safe House to $138 million and Journey 2 The Mysterious Island up to $100 million.  Not surprisingly, Star Wars: Episode 1 Phantom Menace 3D will be down about 67% in its second weekend.  The final estimate for this extravaganza of wooden acting, clunky dialogue and digital characters with jaw-dropping ethnic stereotypes is now $45 million domestic. 

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 17-19, 2012    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
The Vow (Sony)           [$22.5]    $24.9   $ 7.4     $150++
Safe House (Uni)         [$21.0]    $23.6   $ 6.5     $138+
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$27.0]    $20.4   $ 7.0     $ 54
Journey 2 (WB)           [$20.0]    $18.8   $ 4.4     $100+ 
This Means War (Fox)     [$16.5]    $16.6   $ 5.6     $ 44
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox)  [$10.0]    $ 7.4   $ 1.9     $ 45-
Secret World Arrietty Dis[$ 4.2]    $ 6.6   $ 1.7     $ 25
Chronicle (Fox)          [$ 6.8]    $ 7.4   $ 2.0     $ 71
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$ 5.2]    $ 6.4   $ 1.9     $ 60
The Grey (Open Road)     [$ 3.1]    $ 3.7   $ 0.9     $ 57
The Descendants (Fox)    [$ ---]    $ 2.8   $ 0.7     $ 85 
Big Miracle (Uni)        [$ 2.6]    $ 2.4   $ 0.5     $ 22


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $141 million total Friday-Sunday, up 9% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 22% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #7


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $141  Ghost Rider 2 $20, This Means War $17, Arrietty $6.6
2011  $130  Unknown $22, I Am Number Four $19, Big Mommas 2 $16
2010  $122  Shutter Island $41
2009  $120  Madea Goes to Jail $41, Fired Up $5.5
2008  $ 90  Vantage Point $23, Be Kind Rewind $4
2008-11
Avg   $115


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS and YEAR TO DATE February 6-12

4:32 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Six full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run well ahead of last year's anemic pace and now has moved slightly ahead of the comparable period's average for the last several years.  The Vow officially opened at #1 with $41,202,458 the first three days (missing the studio estimate of $41,700,000 issued Sunday morning).  Safe House was close behind at #2 with $40,172,720 (well ahead of the studio estimate of $39,300,000).  Journey 2: The Mysterious Island opened in third place with $27,335,363 (extremely close to the $27,550,000 studio estimate).  The Phantom Menace in 3D officially opened in fourth place with $22,469,932 million (not surprisingly missing the $23,000,000 studio estimate).              


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between February 6 and February 12 grossed $214 million, up 30% from the same week in 2011 and up 9% from the four year average for the comparable week.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 28% ahead of 2011 and now 3% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.        

All Wide-Release Films February 6-12
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #6      $165    $197    $214    +30%    + 9%

Year to Date $860    $1070   $1100   +28%    + 3%



Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 


Safe House $117 million (83 percentile) 
The Vow $115 million (82 percentile) 
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $78 million (71 percentile) 
Chronicle $70 million (67 percentile) 
Contraband $68 million (67 percentile) 
Underworld Awakening $65 million (65 percentile) 
Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace 3D $61 million (62 percentile) 
The Woman in Black $57 million (59 percentile) 

The Grey $56 million (59 percentile) 
Red Tails $51 million (56 percentile) 
Beauty and the Beast 3D $49 million (55 percentile) 
The Devil Inside $48 million (54 percentile) 
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close $34 million (41 percentile) 
The Artist $32 million (37 percentile) 
Joyful Noise $30 million (34 million) 
The Iron Lady $27 million (30 percentile) 
One for the Money $25 million (27 percentile) 
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $24 million (25 percentile) 
Big Miracle $24 million (25 percentile) 
Haywire $20 million (21 percentile)   
Man on a Ledge $19 million (20 percentile) 


Weekend Predictions for February 17-19 should be posted late Wednesday.

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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through February 12

2:23 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Four new movies join the worldwide box office chart this weekend, with Journey 2: The Mysterious Island being the early standout.  Released overseas a week before this weekend's North American opening, Journey 2 already has an overseas total of $75 million to date, nearly matching our total domestic projection of $79 million.  The first in the series, Journey to the Center of the Earth (released July 11, 2008 also by Warner Brothers), made it to just under $242 million worldwide (about $102 million domestic and $140 million overseas).  Journey 2 seems destined for a lower domestic total but a similar international haul.  Click "read more" to see the updated weekly chart.

The Vow and Safe House both have a relatively slow start overseas, each with $10 million to date.  Although both films are headed for similar domestic final grosses, we'll give the slight edge to The Vow overseas.  Recent successful romantic comedies have generally matched their domestic gross overseas although The Notebook was an exception (Valentine's Day: $110 million/ $106 million domestic/ overseas, Just Go With It: $103 million/ $112 million, He's Just Not That Into You: $94 million/ $85 million,  The Notebook: $81 million/ $35 million).  We'll give The Vow an overseas target of $110 million, for a final worldwide target of $226 million. 

In contrast, recent successful Denzel Washington action films domestically have somewhat under-performed overseas with the notable exception of American Gangster (The Book of Eli: $95 million/ $62 million, Training Day: $77 million/ $28 million, Man on Fire: $78 million/ $52 million, American Gangster: $130 million/ $136 million).  We'll give Safe House an overseas target of $80 million, for a final worldwide target of $194 million.

The re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace 3D has grossed $21 million overseas to date. 




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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 10-12

8:53 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in significantly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an impressive $174 million for the weekend, up a very strong 29% from last year's disaster weekend and, even more significant, up 15% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Two films opened with around $40 million weekends (The Vow with $41.7 million and Safe House with $39.3 million), and two films opened with around $25 million (Journey 2: The Mysterious Island with $27.6 million and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D with $23.0 million).  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)

On Friday The Vow beat Safe House by about $1.5 million ($15.325 million to $13.800 million), while on Saturday the race was very close ($16.700 million for The Vow to $16.600 million for Safe House).  But Sunday is expected to go to The Vow by a margin of almost $1 million ($9.675 million to $8.900 million).  The Vow is expected to beat Safe House by about $1.4 million for the entire weekend, although that margin could close when the final numbers are in Monday.  Either way, two very impressive openings by two nicely counter-programmed films.

As expected, Phantom Menace in 3D was incredibly front-loaded by sci-fi fans who love special effects and care little about a coasting director who specializes in recycling his direction of even great actors (Liam Neeson and Natalie Portman) toward wooden performances to match inexperienced, untalented child actors (Jake Lloyd).  For a complete look at George Lucas and his infatuation with technology at the expense of humanity in his films, read Mitch Salem's review of the 3D re-release of Phantom Menace.  On opening night, Phantom Menace beat Journey 2 by more than $2 million ($8.650 million to $6.570 million), but Journey 2 pounded back on Saturday, winning by more than $4 million ($12.715 million to $8.550 million).  A similarly wide margin is expected Sunday ($8.265 million to $5.800 million for Phantom Menace).     

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  The Vow ($116 million), Safe House ($114 million), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($79 million) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($63 million).    


The second week movies:  Chronicle ($71 million, adjusted up), The Woman in Black ($58 million, steady) and Big Miracle ($23 million, adjusted down). 

The third week movies have been adjusted:  The Grey ($56 million, down slightly again), One for the Money ($25 million, down slightly), Man on a Ledge ($19 million, down slightly).  In its third wide-release week, The Artist ($32 million) is holding steady.


February 10-12                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
The Vow                  (Sony)     $41.7             $116
Safe House                (Uni)     $39.3             $114
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $27.6             $ 79
Phantom Menace 3D         (Fox)     $23.0             $ 63
Chronicle                 (Fox)     $12.3   -44%      $ 71+
The Woman in Black        (CBS)     $10.3   -51%      $ 58
The Grey            (Open Road)     $ 5.1   -45%      $ 56
Big Miracle               (Uni)     $ 3.9   -50%      $ 23-
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.5   -23%      $ 80
Underworld Awakening     (Sony)     $ 2.5   -55%      $ 65
Red Tails                 (Fox)     $ 2.4   -49%      $ 51
One for the Money          (LG)     $ 2.3   -56%      $ 25



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  




Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $174 million total Friday-Sunday, up 29% from the same calendar weekend last year and more impressively up 15% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #6


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $174  The Vow $42, Safe House $39, Journey 2 $28
2011  $135  Just Go With It $30, Justin Bieber $29, Gnomeo $25
2010  $189  Valentine's Day $56, Percy Jackson $31, Wolfman $31
2009  $163  Friday 13th $41, Confessions Shopaholic $15
2008  $118  Jumper $27, Spiderwick Chron $19, Step Up 2 $19

2008-11
Avg   $151



Next Weekend 

Next weekend, Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance from Sony, This Means War from 20th Century Fox and The Secret World of Arrietty from Disney open wide.  These openings will be compared to Unknown ($21.9 million opening weekend), I Am Number Four ($19.4 million) and Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son ($16.3 million) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today

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THE SHOWBUZZDAILY REVIEW: "The Phantom Menace 3D"

6:38 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,




STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D, to give it its fully identifying title, has the distinction of being the most successful movie ever made that is generally agreed to be terrible.  Over $900M in tickets have been sold for Phantom Menace since its opening in 1999 (that number will go over $1B when the current re-release is taken into account), which doesn't even begin to include revenues from homevideo, merchandising, television licenses, etc.--and aside from admiration for the film's special effects, you'd be hard-pressed to find anything good that's been said about it.

The dreadfulness of Phantom Menace didn't stop anyone from going.  It was a colossal pop culture event when it opened, bigger even than Harry Potter or Twilight or Lord of the Rings chapters, because it was the first new entry in 16 years in what was, title for title, the most successful motion picture franchise in history.  One simply couldn't fail to see it.  I attended a 3:30AM show--that is not a typo--at Grauman's Chinese on opening day, and we got in the ticketholders' line almost 3 hours early just to get good seats (there were hundreds of people already there ahead of us).  When the movie ended and we exited, rosy-fingered dawn was just beginning to touch the sky above Hollywood Boulevard, and the only real question was how we'd managed to stay awake.   


And now it's back.  George Lucas, the Scrooge McDuck of American cinema, fondled and squeezed his stupendously valuable intellectual property until he realized there was more revenue to be shaken out of the pockets of moviegoers, and Phantom Menace is just the first of what will be re-releases of all 6 Star Wars films in 3D.  (The Phantom Menace 3D is reasonably high-quality, as transfers go, but since the movie was never conceived for the technology when it was made, it has none of the imagination or visual excitement of recent 3D movies like Avatar, The Adventures of Tintin or Hugo.  Plus the glasses inevitably make the images darker and more grayish, resulting in a visual experience that's overall less enjoyable than the original version.)

This compels us, 13 years after the fact, to take another look at The Phantom Menace and how it stands up as a movie.  


It's instructive to glance at George Lucas' filmography.  He is, depending on how one cuts the numbers, one of the most--if not the single most--successful men ever to work in motion pictures.  But it's impossible to think of another filmmaker with a 40+ year-long career whose work is limited by such a narrow set of boundaries.  In the past 35 years, Lucas' only films as a director are the Star Wars features.  And as a producer, only twice in the past 2 decades has he stepped away from the Star Wars or Indiana Jones franchises, with the forgettable Radioland Murders in 1994 and this year's unimpressive Red Tails.  (Lucas periodically claims that he's going to devote the rest of his career to low-budget "indie" projects, but he doesn't have a lot of credibility on the point.)  Despite having the financial resources and clout to create literally anything he might have wanted to on film, Lucas has chosen to do... more of the same.  It's actually sad, in a way.  Lucas, unlike fantasy filmmakers such as Peter Jackson, Christopher Nolan, Alfonso Cuaron or Sam Raimi, to name just a few, made his life's work the richest McDonalds ever.

Also sad are Lucas' shortcomings as a director and writer, and nowhere is that clearer than in Phantom Menace, which was his first piece of direction since the original Star Wars 22 years earlier.  For those who've lived in a cave since 1999,  Phantom Menace begins the Star Wars saga by introducing the 8-year old Anakin Skywalker (Jake Lloyd), who in the course of the movie meets Obi-Wan Kenobi (Ewan McGregor), R2-D2, C-3PO, Yoda and Pademe (Natalie Portman) who will become the love of his life and the mother of Luke and Leia.  While one can see in the later movies the seeds Lucas was planting in the saga with this view of Anakin as a child, he would have been better off sticking with adults.

The Phantom Menace script, for which Lucas takes sole credit, is a tedious and often all-but-incomprehensible hash of taxation issues, blockades and mysticism, conveyed with dialogue that was either dreadfully expositional, childish (as opposed to believably child-like) or flat-out embarrassing (the latter would include every word out of the mouth of Jar-Jar Binks).  Sadly, although Lucas has been known to tinker with his movies prior to re-release, he hasn't seen fit to remove the messianic undertones from Phantom Menace:  hints of Anakin Skywalker's possible virgin birth and discussion of his genetic superiority.  (These plot points were toned down considerably in the later prequel chapters.)  The somewhat queasy pre-romance between Padme and the 8-year old Anakin also remains.  (This from the filmmaker who also gave us what turned out to be a semi-incestuous brother-sister undercurrent in the initial movies.)  

It can't be a coincidence that Portman, Liam Neeson (as Obi-Wan's mentor), Ewan McGregor and Samuel L. Jackson (as a senior Jedi), all of whom have more than proven their great talent elsewhere, give utterly wooden performances under Lucas' direction.  (Let's speak only in passing of Jake Lloyd, who never had a career post-Phantom Menace, and thus can only be remembered for one of the worst child performances ever put on film.) It's also not a coincidence that the only sequence in the movie that really worked in 1999 and still does now is the pod race, because it involves no dialogue and almost no acting.

What Phantom Menace did have in 1999 was a then-revolutionary expansion of the role of digital special effects.  Lucas had re-invented special effects with the first Star Wars, and he all but did it again here, with settings, sets, spacecraft and entire characters like the loathed Jar-Jar residing in computers.  It was all quite extraordinary, an entirely new palette for filmmakers to use in creating cinematic worlds, and whatever else one can say about Lucas, he deserves full credit for his visionary development of the technology.  Unfortunately, in 2012 these effects have come a long way from their 1999 standard, and these days--through no fault of their own--many of the Phantom Menace effects look rudimentary and old-fashioned.

There's no question that Phantom Menace will continue to make money on this go-round, and so will the subsequent Star Wars re-releases.  Lucas has the ultimate good thing, and the movies, along with the innumerable spin-offs, prequels, games, products and additional ancillaries, will sell forever.  In the case of Phantom Menace, however, that didn't--and doesn't--make it any good.

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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 10 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

8:42 AM | Labels: , , , , ,

The sixth weekend of 2012 is actually something to get excited about.  Better than the same weekend last year (yawn) but also stronger than a "typical" weekend for this time of year, looking at the past four years.  A photo finish is in store between Safe House and The Vow (both around $36 million openings), while Journey 2 and Phantom Menace in 3D are both heaeded for over $20 million.     

Safe House opened with $13.6 million Friday for an estimated $36.4 million for the three-day opening weekend, blowing past the $28.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The Denzel Washington-Ryan Reynolds film is headed for a very good $12,400 average on 3,119 screens.  Safe House is headed for a preliminary $112 million total domestic. 


The Vow is also beating our prediction: earning $15.1 million Friday for a more front-loaded $36.4 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $33.5 million prediction.  Although The Vow made more money than Safe House on Friday, Safe House should catch it for the weekend (and even pass it) given stronger word of mouth.  Safe House beats The Vow with critics (52% vs 28% positive at RottenTomatoes) and with opening night audiences (A- vs B CinemaScore grades).  The Channing Tatum-Rachel McAdams romantic drama is headed for a preliminary $106 million domestic. 

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is hitting its also beating a less lofty expectation: $6.5 million Friday with a big kid-and-family multiple to $23.4 million this weekend, above the $17.5 million forecast.  Journey 2 is on track for $67 million total domestic.

Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace (re-released in 3D) grossed $8.5 million Friday in what should be a front-loaded weekend: $21.7 Friday-Sunday, just above the $20.5 million forecast.  The re-issue should gross about $59 million domestic.

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 10-12, 2012    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Safe House (Uni)         [$28.0]    $36.4   $13.6     $112
The Vow (Sony)           [$33.5]    $36.4   $15.1     $106
Journey 2 (WB)           [$17.5]    $23.4   $ 6.5     $ 67
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox)  [$20.5]    $21.7   $ 8.5     $ 59
Chronicle (Fox)          [$11.5]    $12.0   $ 3.5     $ 70+
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$10.0]    $11.4   $ 3.4     $ 62
The Grey (Open Road)     [$ 5.2]    $ 4.5   $ 1.3     $ 55-
Big Miracle (Uni)        [$ 4.8]    $ 3.7   $ 0.9     $ 23-
The Descendants (Fox)    [$ 2.9]    $ 3.2   $ 0.9     $ 70 
Underworld Awakening (So)[$ ---]    $ 2.4   $ 0.7     $ 66
Red Tails (Fox)          [$ ---]    $ 2.3   $ 0.6     $ 50
One for the Money (LG)   [$ 2.7]    $ 2.2   $ 0.7     $ 25  



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $164 million total Friday-Sunday, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year and more impressively up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #6


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $164  Safe House $38, The Vow $38, Journey 2 $23
2011  $135  Just Go With It $30, Justin Bieber $29, Gnomeo $25
2010  $189  Valentine's Day $56, Percy Jackson $31, Wolfman $31
2009  $163  Friday 13th $41, Confessions Shopaholic $15
2008  $118  Jumper $27, Spiderwick Chron $19, Step Up 2 $19

2008-11
Avg   $151


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS February 10-12

11:20 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

The sixth weekend of the year should generate about $142 million for the top 12 films -- up 5% from last year's comparable weekend but down a similar percentage from a "normal" weekend this time of year.  The Vow and Safe House should open very solidly at #1 and #2.           


Opening at over 2,800 theaters, The Vow from Sony should average a very good $11,900 per theater (for $33.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Critics on RottenTomatoes are slightly positive toward this romantic tear-jerker: 56% positive reviews.  The Vow is on track for a preliminary $95 million domestically.        

Opening in over 3,000 theaters, the action film Safe House from Universal (starring Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds) should average $9,300 per theater ($28 million Friday-Sunday).  Critics have been mixed: 50% positive reviews so far with a relatively small sample size.  Safe House is headed for a total domestic gross of $80 million.

In over 2,600 theaters, 20th Century Fox is re-releasing Star Wars: Episode 1 Phantom Menace in 3D, which should average $7,900 per theater ($20.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Episode 1-3D is on track for a final tally of $57 million domestic.

Finally, Warner Brothers rolls out The Rock in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.  A high number of theaters will screen this thing (3,400), but the average per theater should be a very mediocre $5,200 ($17.5 million this weekend).  Early reviews are running 56% positive, and Journey 2 should be on its way to $54 million domestic.   

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 10-12                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Vow                 Sony  PG13  56%      $33.5     $ 95
Safe House               Uni  R     50%      $28.0     $ 80
Phantom Menace in 3D     Fox  PG    60%      $20.5     $ 57
Journey 2                 WB  PG    56%      $17.5     $ 54


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fairly typical declines for the returning films.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 10-12                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



Chronicle                Fox      -49%      $11.5     $ 65
The Woman in Black       CBS      -53%      $10.0     $ 58
Big Miracle              Uni      -39%      $ 4.8     $ 28
The Grey                 Open     -45%      $ 5.2     $ 59
The Descendants          Fox      -36%      $ 2.9     $ 76
One for the Money        LG       -49%      $ 2.7     $ 27

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $151 million total, ranking 14th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $135 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $189 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $142 million, up 5% from this weekend last year but down 6% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years


2/11/11

 Just Go With It SONY PG13 Adam Sandler Jennifer Aniston 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $35  Actual: $31
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $105  Actual: $103
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $112

 Justin Bieber: Never Say Never PAR G Justin Bieber  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $24  Actual: $30
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $78  Actual: $73
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $25

 Gnomeo and Juliet DIS G   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $25
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $98  Actual: $100
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $90

 The Eagle UNI PG13 Channing Tatum Jamie Bell 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $22  Actual: $19
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $20

2/12/10

 Valentine's Day WB PG13 Julia Roberts Bradley Cooper 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $34  Actual: $56
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $115  Actual: $110
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $103

 The Wolfman UNI R Benicio Del Toro Anthony Hopkins 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $24  Actual: $31
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $69  Actual: $62
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $78

 Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief FOX PG Uma Thurman Pierce Brosnan 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22  Actual: $31
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $96  Actual: $89
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $137


Interested in the betting odds for this year's Academy Awards races?  Check out our overview here.

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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