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Showing posts with label Act of Valor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Act of Valor. Show all posts

FRIDAY MARCH 9 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

8:24 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The tenth weekend of 2012 is looking to be solid in terms of total business but not at the runaway pace of the past few weeks.  The weekend is running 3% ahead of last year's same weekend and 8% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  The Lorax will remain the #1 film this weekend, down a typical 45% from its strong opening.  Needing an outstanding performance, John Carter is looking like a $27 million opening weekend, which would would be fine if the studio hadn't spent hundreds of millions of dollars making it, re-shooting it and marketing it worldwide.  Silent House and A Thousand Words with Eddie Murphy are opening very quietly, and will leave the scene quickly.      

John Carter from Disney opened with $9.6 million Friday for an estimated $27.4 million for Friday-Sunday, in line with the $26.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The science-fiction/ action film is averaging $7,300 on 3,746 screens, nowhere near the opening this expensive film would need to have even a remote shot at making its money back.  The film now has 50% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and a "B+" CinemaScore grade from opening night audiences.  Mitch Salem is decidedly negative in his review.  Not the signs of terrific word of mouth.  John Carter is headed for a preliminary $67 million total domestic, which will certainly feed the Town's schadenfreude for the current Disney film regime. 

Silent House (from Open Road Films) opened with $2.6 million Friday for $6.6 million Friday-Sunday, falling far behind the modest $10.0 million ShowBuzzDaily prediction.  The horror film should average around only $3,100 at 2,124 theaters this weekend.  Silent House is headed for a preliminary $12 million domestic.  Currently 49% positive reviews for Silent House at RottenTomatoes, but the film received the dreaded "F" CinemaScore, according to Deadline.  Read Mitch Salem's review.

Finally, there's Eddie Murphy.  A Thousand Words (Paramount) opened with $1.9 million Friday and headed for $5.7 million this weekend, somewhat above our horrific $4.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Firmly in bomb territory, the film is averaging $3,030 at only 1,890 theaters.  The film is headed for maybe $9 million domestic when it leaves theaters.  

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
March 9-11, 2012        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

The Lorax (Uni)          [$41.0]    $39.2   $ 9.5     $220
John Carter (Dis)        [$26.0]    $27.4   $ 9.6     $ 67
Project X (WB)           [$10.5]    $11.8   $ 4.0     $ 68
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$ 7.5]    $ 7.2   $ 2.0     $ 74
Silent House (Open Road) [$10.0]    $ 6.6   $ 2.6     $ 12
A Thousand Words (Par)   [$ 4.5]    $ 5.7   $ 1.9     $  9
Safe House (Uni)         [$ 4.7]    $ 5.1   $ 1.3     $131 
The Vow (Sony)           [$ 3.6]    $ 4.1   $ 1.3     $130
Journey 2 (WB)           [$ 3.9]    $ 4.1   $ 0.8     $103
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 3.5]    $ 4.0   $ 1.2     $ 54
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$ 3.5]    $ 3.2   $ 0.8     $ 36
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ ---]    $ 2.2   $ 0.5     $ 51
The Artist (Wein)        [$ ---]    $ 2.1   $ 0.6     $ 49



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $121 million total Friday-Sunday, up 3% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #10


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $121  John Carter $27, Silent House $6.6, 1000 Words $5.5
2011  $118  Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $7
2010  $136  Green Zone $14, She's Out My League $10
2009  $ 88  Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $14
2008  $106  Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $9
2008-11
Avg   $112


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 2-4

8:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an excellent $153 million for the weekend, up 27% from last year's weekend and up 23% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  The Lorax exceeded expectations Friday and absolutely blew them away Saturday, while Project X opened very decently.




The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Dr. Seuss' The Lorax ($227 million) and Project X ($67 million).

The second week movies:  Act of Valor ($77 million, adjusted upward), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($39 million, steady), Wanderlust ($22 million, steady) and Gone ($12 million, adjusted up slightly).    


The third week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($51 million, adjusted down again slightly), This Means War ($51 million, steady) and Secret World of Arrietty ($23 million, adjusted down). 


The fourth week movies:  The Vow ($130 million, adjusted down a touch), Safe House ($129 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($103 million, adjusted back down) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($42 million, down slightly).    



March 2-4                           Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
The Lorax                 (Uni)     $70.7             $227
Project X                  (WB)     $20.8             $ 67
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $13.7   -44%      $ 77+
Safe House                (Uni)     $ 7.2   -34%      $129
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $ 7.0   -55%      $ 39
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $ 6.9   -48%      $103
The Vow                  (Sony)     $ 6.1   -38%      $130
This Means War            (Fox)     $ 5.6   -33%      $ 51
Ghost Rider 2            (Sony)     $ 4.7   -48%      $ 51
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 3.9   +34%      $ 50


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $153 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #9


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $153  The Lorax $71, Project X $21
2011  $121  Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010  $186  Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn's Finest $13
2009  $102  Watchmen $55
2008  $ 91  10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
2008-11
Avg   $125




Next Weekend            
 
Opening next weekend are John Carter from Disney, Silent House from Open Road Films and A Thousand Words from Paramount.  These films will be compared to Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million opening weekend), Red Riding Hood ($14.0 million) and Mars Needs Moms ($6.9 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE

1:13 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,




Deadline is reporting a fairly spectacular Saturday for THE LORAX (Universal), considering the size of its Friday:  $32M, representing more than an 80% increase from the day before.  As a point of comparison, Horton Hears A Who! increased only 40% on its second day of release.  If this number holds, it puts Lorax in line for a $70M+ weekend, and makes a $200M total gross very likely.  Also, with The Hunger Games, 21 Jump Street, Wrath of the Titans (and OK, John Carter) still to come, it suggests we may be kicking off a March of historic proportions.


PROJECT X (Warners) naturally had nothing like Lorax's Saturday, instead inching down a couple of hundred thousand dollars from Friday.  That should still be enough for a $20M or so weekend, quite good considering the picture's costs (and lack of quality).

Among holdovers, ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is reporting a strong Saturday and could end up falling only 40% or so from last weekend. GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit), though, will fall closer to 60%.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold quite well.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!


 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

1:28 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,





There are good movies and there are hits, and given the choice, there's never been any doubt which Hollywood prefers.

OPENINGS:  A March filled to the brim with wannabe blockbusters is off to a big start.  THE LORAX (Universal) may be a bad movie (spoiler alert--it is), but the studio sold the hell out of it, and the result looks to be the all-quadrant hit Universal dreamed of.  The opening day for Lorax was almost 25% higher than the Friday for Horton Hears A Who! in March 2008, and that one got to $154M, so $200M is certainly in reach (Horton happened to be a better movie, but we'll see if that means much).  Also helping:  no real competition until Mirror Mirror and Wrath of the Titans open on March 30.


Also opening well (and at least as bad) is PROJECT X (Warner Bros), the latest "found-footage" contraption.  Its $8.1M Friday is only slightly behind the $8.6M for Chronicle, February's found-footage picture, and while Project's trajectory downward may be faster (Chronicle rose 18% on Saturday on good word-of-mouth, which Project will be hard pressed to match), that could still put it in the neighborhood of a $20M weekend and $50M total, not bad for a picture that has a $12M budget and lower-than-usual reliance on expensive TV marketing.

HOLDOVERS:  ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) and WANDERLUST (Universal) should go down a standard 45-50% in their second weekends, but oddly enough, the given-up-for-dead GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) is holding extremely well and may decline less than 40%.  Amanda Seyfried fans?  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) will fall the heavy 60% or so that's typical for Tyler Perry's movies.  Also collapsing this weekend is JOURNEY 2 (Warners), which held like a champ for several weeks but got poleaxed by The Lorax.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold well, although in the case of the latter, that will still only get it to around $50M.  Worth noting farther down the list is that PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) is now headed for only around $45M, which means with the cost of 3D conversion and marketing, the re-release may remarkably have to scrape just to break even--we'll see how quickly Attack of the Clones 3D hits theatres after this.

OSCAR WINNERS:  Even with the Best Picture Oscar and the giant publicity that comes with it, THE ARTIST (Weinstein) managed only a mild bump at the box-office.  Its theatre count increased by over 80%, but it's headed for only a 20-25% higher gross this weekend.  Artist now seems unlikely to reach $50M at the US boxoffice, which would make it the first Best Picture winner in current theatrical release (unlike The Hurt Locker, which was already on homevideo when the awards were presented) not to hit that mark since The Last Emperor in 1987, a film that made $44M at a time when those dollars had 25 years worth of higher value.  (For a real, inflation-adjusted equivalent, you'd have to go back to the pre-homevideo era.)  Meanwhile THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) rode its Best Actress Oscar to a 10-15% increase.  Winners in the lesser categories had no Oscar benefit:  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) dropped 20% of its theatres and will decline 40-45%, and HUGO (Paramount), now out on homevideo, lost about 15% of its theatres and will fall 20-25%.

LIMITED RELEASES:  The first major indie of 2012, BEING FLYNN (Focus) didn't muster much enthusiasm at the boxoffice (sadly, for good reason) and may only get to around an $11K average at 4 theatres.  TIM AND ERIC'S BILLION DOLLAR MOVIE (Magnolia), also available on VOD, is headed for perhaps a $5K average at 24.

NEXT WEEK:  The knives have been sharpening for weeks, but is JOHN CARTER (Disney) really as bad as the buzz suggests?  It will, at least, have the weekend almost to itself, as the "single-take" (not really) SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) and the long-delayed Eddie Murphy vehicle A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount) are only opening in roughly half as many theatres.  2 romantic comedies also arrive in limited release:  FRIENDS WITH KIDS (Roadside Attractions), which has a terrific cast that includes Jon Hamm, Kristin Wiig, Adam Scott and Maya Rudolph, and SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN (CBS), with the somewhat less marketable Ewan McGregor and Emily Blunt. 

 


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FRIDAY MARCH 2 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:44 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The ninth weekend of 2012 is another good one, running 13% ahead of last year's same weekend and 9% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  This is the fourth weekend in a row that 2012 volume beats both the easy target of last year's depressed levels as well as the more difficult to beat multi-year averages.  (The first five weekends of 2012 were generally ahead of 2011 but not other recent years.)  The Lorax mowed down the competition, powered by 70 marketing partnerships.  It's the best opening since November's Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 and fills somewhere in between two big openings from this same weekend the last two years (bigger than Rango last year, not in the same league as mega-hit Alice in Wonderland in 2010).  Project X opened at forecast in an unspectacular but fairly solid fashion.    

Dr. Seuss' The Lorax from Universal opened with $17.4 million Friday for an estimated $60.4 million for Friday-Sunday, way above the $44.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The 3D animated film is averaging $16,200 on 3,729 screens.  The Lorax is headed for a preliminary $198 million total domestic.  Reviews have been mediocre, 57% positive to date at RottenTomatoes. Mitch Salem is decidedly negative in his review.


Project X (from Warner Brothers) opened with $8.1 million Friday for $19.8 million Friday-Sunday, slightly exceeding the more moderate $18.5 million prediction.  The "found footage" comedy from producer Todd Phillips (director of The Hangover) should average around $6,500 at 3,055 theaters this weekend.  Project X is headed for a preliminary $65 million domestic.  Only 27% positive reviews for Project X at RottenTomatoes, and Mitch Salem is definitely among the fans in his review.


Act of Valor looks like it will be down 48% in its second weekend, right in line with expectations.  Best Picture The Artist is headed for $3.6 million weekend on its victory tour, with $2,035 per theater (in line with our forecast) at 1,756 theaters (slightly lower than our initial estimate).  In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
March 2-4, 2012         Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
The Lorax (Uni)          [$44.0]    $60.4   $17.4     $198
Project X (WB)           [$18.5]    $19.8   $ 8.1     $ 65
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$13.0]    $12.7   $ 3.7     $ 73
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$ 7.5]    $ 6.3   $ 1.8     $ 36
Journey 2 (WB)           [$ 7.2]    $ 5.7   $ 1.3     $100-
Safe House (Uni)         [$ 6.5]    $ 6.8   $ 1.9     $128
The Vow (Sony)           [$ 5.2]    $ 5.6   $ 1.8     $129
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 4.8]    $ 5.2   $ 1.7     $ 50
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ 4.6]    $ 4.3   $ 1.1     $ 50
The Artist (Wein)        [$ 4.2]    $ 3.6   $ 0.9     $ 49+



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $137 million total Friday-Sunday, up 13% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 9% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #9


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $137  The Lorax $60, Project X $20
2011  $121  Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010  $186  Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn's Finest $13
2009  $102  Watchmen $55
2008  $ 91  10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
2008-11
Avg   $125


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS March 2-4

11:53 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The ninth weekend of the year should generate about $125 million for the top 12 films, a fairly typical weekend for the first weekend in March -- up 2% from last year's comparable weekend and down a negligible 1% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Universal should stand tall with a $44 million opening for The Lorax, while Project X should place second with a slightly above average $18.5 million opening.   



Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax from Universal should average an excellent $12,300 per theater (for $44.0 million Friday-Sunday), which would be the best opening for a film since the weekend of November 18 when Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened with over $138 million in its first weekend.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews from critics are in so far at RottenTomatoes, but the film is over 75% positive with the small sample size.  Marketing for the film has been strong and omnipresent (Universal is acting like a major studio this weekend, as opposed to its imitation of a mini-studio last week with Wanderlust opening with $6.5 million at a mere 2,002 theaters).  The studio has pulled out all the stops with dozens of advertiser tie-ins, brilliantly skewered by The Colbert Report (at minute 5:40).  The Lorax is on track for a preliminary $156 million domestically.            

Opening in around 3,000 theaters, Project X from Warner Brothers should average an okay $6,200 per theater ($18.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Also a limited sample size for this comedy produced by Todd Phillips (The Hangover), but the few reviews are trending slightly negative.  Project X is headed for a total domestic gross of $64 million. 


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 2-4                        Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Lorax                Uni  PG    n/a      $44.0     $156
Project X                WB   R     n/a      $18.5     $ 64


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Fairly typical declines are in store for most holdover films, with Act of Valor the lone returning film headed for over $10 million this weekend.  Best Picture The Artist doubles its theater count from 966 to about 2,000, but the per theater average should drop from about $3,000 to about $2,100 as the film moves into parts of the country that should be less receptive to the silent tribute to the early days of Hollywood.  Still, it should have a hefty 45% increase from last weekend's tally.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 2-4                       vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
Act of Valor             Rel      -47%      $13.0     $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -51%      $ 7.5     $ 40
Journey 2                 WB      -47%      $ 7.2     $120 
Safe House               Uni      -41%      $ 6.5     $133
The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $ 5.2     $133
This Means War           Fox      -44%      $ 4.8     $ 51
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -49%      $ 4.6     $ 55
The Artist              Wein      +45%      $ 4.2     $ 45

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $125 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $121 million (paced by Johnny Depp voicing the Best Animated film Rango), and the same weekend in 2010 was $186 million (paced by Johnny Depp in the huge Alice in Wonderland).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $123 million, up a scant 2% from this weekend last year and down 1% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years


3/4/11

 Rango PAR PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $42  Actual: $38
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $126  Actual: $123
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $119

 Adjustment Bureau UNI PG13 Matt Damon Emily Blunt 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $20  Actual: $21
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $69  Actual: $62
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $65

 Beastly CBS PG13 Alex Pettyfer Vanessa Hudgens 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $7  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $25  Actual: $28
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $1

 Take Me Home Tonight REL R Topher Grace Anna Faris 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $6  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $6  Actual: $7
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

3/5/10

 Alice in Wonderland DIS PG Johnny Depp Helena Bonham Carter 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $69  Actual: $116
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $359  Actual: $334
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $690

 Brooklyn's Finest OVERTURE R Don Cheadle Richard Gere 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9  Actual: $13
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $29  Actual: $27
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $9



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through February 26

5:01 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Four new films opened this weekend in North America and have joined our worldwide box office tracking chart.  Three of the four are toward the bottom of the chart and are destined to stay there.  The other film, Act of Valor, is currently in the middle of the pack but should rise as moderate overseas box office comes in.  We are currently projecting Act of Valor to hit $68 million in domestic box office, and the current zero overseas tally should go to about $40 million given the track record of movies about the U.S. military.  That would put the film ranked around 16th or 17th among the films released in the last three months.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.) 

In contrast, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds, Wanderlust and Gone will not receive much -- if any -- box office overseas.  Tyler Perry's films generally receive no international distribution at all, while bombs like Wanderlust and Gone do not visit foreign theaters in almost all territories. 

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island continues to do brisk business overseas, now up to $159 million outside North America to go along with the projected $118 million domestic final.  The film has an outside shot of reaching $300 million worldwide.  The Vow and Safe House remain in the low-$30 million range overseas.

 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

12:24 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,





As Hollywood prepares to honor its best (well, this year... maybe not so much), an undistinguished group of arrivals dominate the boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is claiming the lowest Sunday decline for any adult-skewing picture in the Top 10, ignoring the usual Oscar Day decline (even though the film had the lowest Saturday bump of any of them).  That means the weekend's final number may be closer to $24M.  There's probably not much gas in the tank for future weeks, but a $60M total for a picture that cost $13M (albeit with much more expensive marketing) is clearly a win.  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit)  is Tyler Perry's lowest opening ever (excluding Daddy's Little Girls, which opened on a Wednesday).  That probably doesn't mean much in terms of his overall franchise (especially since he has a Madea movie coming out next), but may give concern to his bid for a non-franchise (well, new franchise) success playing a detective in I, Alex Cross later this year.


Bad news for Jennifer Aniston, too:  WANDERLUST (Universal) is her lowest-ever opening for a starring vehicle.  (Paul Rudd isn't really seen as someone whose name alone opens movies--his hits have either been concept-driven (Role Models) or buddy movies with strong co-stars (Dinner For Schmucks)--but this certainly doesn't move him up in the ranks.)  Another couple of losers and it may be time for Aniston to take a hard look at returning to TV.  The best news for Amanda Seyfried is that in a couple of weeks, GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a dim memory--but even though it's ridiculous to put her in direct competition with Rachel McAdams or any other particular actress, she does need another Dear John-sized hit in the near future if she's not going to fall onto the heap of lovely ex-TV actresses who couldn't hack it on the big screen.

HOLDOVERS:  JOURNEY 2 (Warners) and THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY (Disney) have real legs, although in Arrietty's case, that won't translate to much of a total gross.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) (which went over $100M, the first-ever for Screen Gems) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) all held well.  GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), of course collapsed.  So did PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th), which now seems unlikely to reach $50M--presumably Fox will do anything George Lucas tells them to, but one has to wonder about the enthusiasm for re-releasing the rest of the prequel trilogy in 3D when 3D TV and homevideo are still in their infancy and there's little ancillary value to be had.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Only a few of the major nominees are still in wide release.  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in anticipation of its big wins tonight, was the only one to add theatres, and had a nice weekend bump.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) and HUGO (Paramount), in anticipation of their big losses, dropped theatres and had modest declines.  (Hugo is being released on homevideo in a few days.)  Sony Classics widened a couple of their Best Foreign Film nominees:  probable winner A SEPARATION did very well, increasing theatre count by around 50% and boxoffice by 36%, while IN DARKNESS wasn't quite as strong, with a similar rise in theatre count but only a 11% boost at the boxoffice.

Enjoy the Sacha Baron Cohen Publicity Tour Oscars tonight, everyone!  We'll have plenty of coverage on The Artist's anointment after the fact.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 24-26 (Updated with Daily Totals)

8:51 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a very good $116 million for the weekend, up 21% from last year's weekend and up 25% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Act of Valor will still win the weekend, but the weekend total has been adjusted down about $1 million to $24.7 million.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds has been adjusted up about $1 million to a second-place $16.0 million.  The rest of the field is looking like it did yesterday at this time.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)



Act of Valor was #1 both Friday and Saturday and will be #1 Sunday.  The film was front-loaded, however, with 37% of its expected weekend total coming on Friday and a similar 38% on Saturday.  The other three films opening this weekend had more typical daily distributions, about one-third of the weekend total on Friday and over 40% on Saturday (the so-called "Saturday bump" we see with most films).  Additionally, the returning films exhibit the pattern we see with holdovers: a heavier reliance on Saturday (closer to 50% of the weekend total), while a family film like Journey 2 relies more on daytime-skewed Sunday than night-time focused Friday (with the opposite the case for a date movie like The Vow).

           Domestic Box Office Estimates by Day
         (Millions $ per day & Percent of Weekend)
                 
                   Fri 2.24   Sat 2.25   Sun 2.26   Weekend
 Opening Films
 Act of Valor      $9.05 37%  $9.48 38%  $6.17 25%  $24.70
 TP’s Good Deeds   $5.35 33%  $6.65 42%  $4.00 25%  $16.00
 Wanderlust        $2.20 33%  $2.90 44%  $1.50 23%  $ 6.60
 Gone              $1.70 34%  $2.10 42%  $1.20 24%  $ 5.00  
 Holdovers
 Journey 2         $3.21 24%  $6.42 48%  $3.85 29%  $13.48
 Safe House        $3.20 28%  $5.10 45%  $3.10 27%  $11.40
 The Vow           $3.25 33%  $4.50 45%  $2.25 22%  $10.00
 Ghost Rider 2     $2.35 27%  $4.13 47%  $2.33 26%  $ 8.80

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Act of Valor ($68 million), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($42 million), Wanderlust ($20 million) and Gone ($9 million).    


The second week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($54 million, adjusted down slightly), This Means War ($51 million, up slightly) and Secret World of Arrietty ($30 million, up slightly). 


The third week movies:  The Vow ($133 million, adjusted down), Safe House ($134 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($118 million, adjusted up again) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($47 million, steady).    



February 24-26                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $24.7             $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $16.0             $ 42
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $13.5   -32%      $118+
Safe House                (Uni)     $11.4   -52%      $134-
The Vow                  (Sony)     $10.0   -57%      $133-

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE

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According to Deadline, ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is reporting a mild 5% Saturday bump.  That's modest, but still less frontloaded than The Expendables' 10% drop on its 2d day, and if the number holds, could mean a $24M+ weekend.  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) is looking better with around a 30% Saturday increase, comparing favorably with the 15% bump The Family That Preys (Tyler Perry's previous low opener) had on its first Saturday, and suggesting a $17M weekend.


After that, it doesn't matter much.  Percentage-wise, WANDERLUST (Universal) had a good 43% Saturday increase, but that still only brought it to $3M for the day, on its way to a irretrievable $7M opening.  And even that looks good compared to GONE (Summit/Lionsgate), which could only manage $2M on Saturday on its way to a weekend that might not hit $5M.

Among holdovers, JOURNEY 2 (Warners) and THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY (Disney) both took full advantage of the Saturday matinee audience, doubling their Friday numbers.  So did GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), although its Friday was so dismal that the 2d weekend gross will still be down 60%.  The movies aimed at adults--SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th)--had 50-60% Saturday bumps, as per the norm.  Patterns suggest that Oscar Sunday will bring a larger-than-usual 40-50% drop for most pictures, regardless of genre, as people make plans for the big night.  (Of course, the size of this particular Oscar night is open to question, so that may moderate the declines.)

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!
 

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THE SHOWBUZZDAILY REVIEW: "Act of Valor"

3:33 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,




ACT OF VALOR:  Watch It At Home -  Fast Forward When They're Not Shooting

If there were a genuine national military crisis, and a small group of expert soldiers were needed to protect the interests of the country, would you want George Clooney or Brad Pitt behind the triggers of those guns?  Not really.  As they'd be the first to tell you, they're better off sticking to their day jobs.  The same is true in reverse, and the gimmicky action movie ACT OF VALOR demonstrates that Navy SEALs should let Clooney, Pitt and their ilk handle the acting.

Valor famously began as a Pentagon recruitment documentary project, and mutated into a scripted feature film directed by Mike McCoy and Scott Waugh (the first feature for each) and written--to the extent that word is appropriate (you've never heard such terrible, or incessant, voice-over)--by 300's Kurt Johnstad.  Calling it a "bad idea" is a matter of definition, since it seems as though it's going to make plenty of money, but it's certainly far from a good movie.  


Although technically Valor is about a  Moslem Chechen terrorist and his plot to smuggle Filipino Moslems into the US wearing non-metal suicide bomb vests, that's just a pretext on which action sequences can be hung. The gimmick at the center of Valor is the casting of real-life, active-duty Navy SEALs as the movie's heroes.  (An ancillary part of the stunt is that none of the "actors" are identified by their full names for purported security reasons, although apparently revealing their faces on worldwide movie screens won't compromise their anonymity in any way, and no one involved with the movie had the novel concept of giving the characters made-up names.)  We know almost nothing about any of them except for the contrivance that one has a pregnant wife and hopes to get back to her in time for the birth--this being the script's only piece of characterization, it's referred to approximately 2 thousand times in the course of the movie's 111 minutes.  

The casting is intended to bring verisimilitude to the picture, but the flat line-readings and lack of camera presence actually makes everything seem more fake than a movie with actors would feel.  Ironically enough, the villains, who are played by professional actors, have more substance than any of the soldiers.  (Let's not even speculate about the bizarre decision to specifically identify the main Moslem terrorist's wealthy, yacht-owning accomplice as Jewish, and to cast the role with an actor who has an enormous hooked nose.)

The truth is that no one will go to see Act of Valor for scintillating dialogue or the depth of its performances.  The picture is being marketed for its action sequences, and there really is a dazzling one in the movie's first half, as the SEALs have to rescue a captured CIA agent (Rosalyn Sanchez) from the bad guys.  Things don't go as planned, and the entire sequence has the rousing, convincing feel of a Tom Clancy novel come to life.  Unfortunately, that's the high point.  The directors make far too much use of helmet-cams in the remaining battle scenes, resulting in confusing, muddled,, jaggedly edited set-pieces that resemble the visuals from first-person videogames and make no spatial sense.  (The much-vaunted use of "live ammunition" at times is also meaningless to the viewer--obviously none of the injuries or killings in the film are real, so the major parts of these sequences are certainly faked, and Hollywood does a perfectly good job of simulating a reality that looks as good as anything seen here.)

Act of Valor, in the end, is more a piece of marketing than it is a movie:  the Navy SEAL brand name is used much like a celebrity endorsement for a particular brand of sneakers or cosmetics, to make its claims seem cooler and more effectively "true".  Action Movie, now with more Real Soldiers!  At a theatre near you.

 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

12:51 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Navy SEALs shoot up the Friday boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  The very aggressive marketing for ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) made it seem like it was a patriotic duty to see the film, and successfully hid the fact that it's mostly a sub-par B action movie.  The question now is whether its quality will catch up with it (or not).  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) is Tyler Perry's lowest wide-release opening Friday ever at $5.6M (Daddy's Little Girls opened on a Wednesday), but not to worry--Perry will have a new Madea comedy out later this year.


Although daily numbers aren't available for her earliest vehicles, WANDERLUST (Universal), with a 2.2M Friday, also seems to be the biggest flop of Jennifer Aniston's starring career, let alone for one that pairs her with another big name like Paul Rudd.  Aniston has had something of a charmed movie career, considering the low quality of many of her pictures, but her luck may be running out.  GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) is just sad at $1.7M, and should send Amanda Seyfried on a search for the next half-decent rom-com or soap opera script that comes her way.

HOLDOVERS:  THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony), SAFE HOUSE (Universal) and SECRET WORLD OF ARIETTY (Disney) are all sustaining well, but nothing is holding like JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), which is clearly pleasing its target audiences. The only thing that could keep it from beating the $102M US gross of the first Journey is next weekend's increased competition.  GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Sony) collapsed, and STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) continued to do so as well--it's starting to look like Phantom Menace may not even get to $50M, although it'll still put plenty of midichlorians in George Lucas's pocket.  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  As THE ARTIST (Weinstein) prepares for its coronation, it added about 20% more theatres and took a nice tick upward.  HUGO (Paramount) lost about 10% of its screens, but also went up a bit.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), on the other hand, lost about a third of its theatres, and was somewhat down.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No notable openings or expansions this weekend, as the art-house audience is presumably occupied with Oscar Day.

NEXT WEEKEND:  March is unusually packed with event movies this year, and first up is THE LORAX (Universal), which the studio has been marketing as an all-quadrant tentpole, with spots aiming at kids (Dr. Seuss), teens (Zac Efron and Taylor Swift) and adults (Danny DeVito and Betty White)--including a fairly heavy ESPN push--and all of that doesn't even count the giant promo deals with a car company and restaurant chain.  A different sort of event is PROJECT X (Warners), an R-rated  "found footage" version of The Hangover (and produced by its director, as every promo is happy to tell you) about a teen party that goes very wild.  Also arriving is the year's first substantial limited release, Paul Weitz's BEING FLYNN (Focus), which is riding some good early buzz for its performances from Robert DeNiro and Paul Dano.


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