Movie Box Review

Four new films opened this weekend in North America and have joined our worldwide box office tracking chart.  Three of the four are toward the bottom of the chart and are destined to stay there.  The other film, Act of Valor, is currently in the middle of the pack but should rise as moderate overseas box office comes in.  We are currently projecting Act of Valor to hit $68 million in domestic box office, and the current zero overseas tally should go to about $40 million given the track record of movies about the U.S. military.  That would put the film ranked around 16th or 17th among the films released in the last three months.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.) 

In contrast, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds, Wanderlust and Gone will not receive much -- if any -- box office overseas.  Tyler Perry's films generally receive no international distribution at all, while bombs like Wanderlust and Gone do not visit foreign theaters in almost all territories. 

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island continues to do brisk business overseas, now up to $159 million outside North America to go along with the projected $118 million domestic final.  The film has an outside shot of reaching $300 million worldwide.  The Vow and Safe House remain in the low-$30 million range overseas.

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a very good $116 million for the weekend, up 21% from last year's weekend and up 25% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Act of Valor will still win the weekend, but the weekend total has been adjusted down about $1 million to $24.7 million.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds has been adjusted up about $1 million to a second-place $16.0 million.  The rest of the field is looking like it did yesterday at this time.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)

The eighth weekend of the year should generate about $116 million for the top 12 films -- up 21% from last year's comparable weekend and up 25% from the four-year average for this weekend.  The big studios are sitting out Oscar weekend, leaving it to Relativity, Lionsgate and Summit to open films as attention shifts to the Kodak Hollywood and Highland Theater Sunday.  Well, OK, Universal is opening a film this weekend with a tepid theater count of under 2,000 locations.  We are giving the slight edge to Act of Valor, although we will probably regret this as we have underestimated Tyler Perry before.  It should be a good race to #1 throughout the weekend, with the top film probably coming in under $20 million.   



Opening at over 3,000 theaters, Act of Valor from Relativity should average an okay $5,900 per theater (for $18.0 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  No reviews yet for this war movie featuring real Navy SEALs -- the entire crop of films opening this weekend is being hidden from film critics.  Act of Valor is on track for a preliminary $47 million domestically.            

Opening in around 2,000 theaters, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds from Lionsgate should average a decent $8,600 per theater ($17.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Good Deeds is headed for a total domestic gross of $45 million, a notch below recent Tyler Perry films: Madea's Big Happy Family ($53.3 million) in April 2011, Why Did I Get Married ($60.1 million) in April 2010 and I Can Do Bad All By Myself ($51.7 million) in September 2009.  Perry's biggest hit so far was Madea Goes to Jail ($90.5 million) in February 2009. 

In around 1,900 theaters, Universal's Wanderlust (starring Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston) should average a soft $4,800 per theater ($9.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  The R-rated comedy is on track for a final tally of maybe $34 million domestic.  

Finally, Amanda Seyfried in Gone from Summit is opening in about 2,000 theaters and should average a meager $3,100 per theater ($6.0 million opening weekend).  The film is headed for a final domestic total of $14 million.


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 24-26                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Act of Valor             Rel  R     n/a      $18.0     $ 47
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG   PG13  n/a      $17.0     $ 45
Wanderlust               Uni  R     n/a      $ 9.0     $ 34
Gone                     Sum  PG13  n/a      $ 6.0     $ 14


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

After Act of Valor and Tyler Perry's Good Deeds at #1 and #2, there should be a pretty good battle for third through fifth place between third weekend entries Safe House, Journey 2 and The Vow.  The bottom should drop out of Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in its second weekend.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 24-26                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



Safe House               Uni      -46%      $13.0     $139
Journey 2                 WB      -36%      $12.8     $104

The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $12.0     $143
This Means War           Fox      -46%      $ 9.5     $ 49
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -62%      $ 8.5     $ 58
Secret World Arrietty    Dis      -34%      $ 4.5     $ 25

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $92 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $96 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $107 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $116 million, up 21% from this weekend last year and up 25% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years