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Showing posts with label war horse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label war horse. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD

12:58 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Beware the round-number weekend estimate.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) is claiming an even $20M gross for the weekend, which would make tomorrow's adjusted number starting with "19" no surprise at all.  In any case, it's a bit lower than Liam Neeson's other starts in his new career as an action star, but Grey is the toughest sell of those pictures, so everyone should be happy.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) wasn't quite as frontloaded as the worst-case scenarios threatened, but its $11.8M is still the worst opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  No one at all was interested in seeing Sam Worthington on a ledge, and MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a memory in 2 weeks.


HOLDOVERS:  UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) is claiming a 21% drop on Sunday when every other picture in the market is reporting a more normal 35-50%, so either Kate Beckinsale has special powers or the number will come down tomorrow (possibly to 3rd place for the weekend, below One For the Money--unless, of course, that number comes down too).  MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 (Paramount) crossed the $200M mark domestically, and if Paramount wants the bragging rights enough, they may be able to push it past the original MI as the most successful of the franchise.  CONTRABAND should give Universal a tidy profit, but no such luck for HAYWIRE and Relativity.  And despite the hype, unless RED TAILS (20th) cleans up overseas, it won't do more than break even for George Lucas (who financed it out of his own capacious pocket).  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Here's an extraordinary fact:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in only 897 theatres this weekend, will have a lower per-theatre average (around $3700) than the despised One For The Money will have in 2737 theatres (around $4300).  Ladies and gentleman, your winner of the 2011 Academy Award!  Really, none of the prominent nominees are exciting audiences:  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) in the widest release at 2630 theatres, is looking at a $2700 average, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), expanded to 2001 theatres, is at around $3300.  Meanwhile,  HUGO (Paramount), TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) and THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) are hovering around $2500.  And avert your eyes from WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney), with a terrible $1100 average despite its Best Picture nomination. 

LIMITED RELEASES:  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics), which may have expanded (to 365 theatres) in hopes of nominations that didn't come, saw its per-theatre number slump to $1600.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics), which did get its (well-deserved) nominations, fared better, with around a $9K average at an expanded 31 theatres.  The 3D dance documentary PINA (IFC) also expanded to 35 theatres, with a milder $5300 average.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another loser in the Oscar lottery, expanded to 10 theatres and held with a fairly good $6600 average.

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WEEKEND BOXOFFICE: STUDIO SCORECARD

5:32 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



Live by Cinemascore, die by Cinemascore.

THE DEVIL INSIDE:  The most hilarious studio event of the last 24 hours has been Paramount's frantic attempt to argue that an "F" Cinemascore for THE DEVIL INSIDE, making it one of the half-dozen worst exit-polled movies of the past several years, isn't really that bad if you take out your abacus and do their version of the math.  The studio's spin has blanketed Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, and no doubt other industry mouthpieces.  At SHOWBUZZDAILY, we don't put much stock in Cinemascore to begin with, but the studios normally cling to every B+ and A- like guarantees of Oscar glory, so the ego involved in arguing that the lowest possible score is not-so-bad is much like a parent insisting their kid's getting expelled from school is some kind of triumph.  Spin aside, Devil Inside had a remarkably strong, if predictably front-loaded, $34.5M weekend, with a 30% drop on Saturday and another 50% (which may end up being low) projected for Sunday.  Paramount would be best advised to shut up and count its money.  


TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  A very fine expansion with $5.8M in 809 theatres (the studio is currently projecting a very low Sunday drop, so that number could end up slightly lower), with the best per-screen average (other than Devil Inside) for any picture this weekend in more than 11 theatres.

WIDE HOLDOVERS:  The smallest drop in the Top 10 was for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony), with a mere 24% fall as it tries to hack its way to $100M.  Then MI4 (Paramount) and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 (Warners) continued to hold well with declines in the 30-35% area.  Sherlock also won the weekend internationally, with $43M in 50 territories that Warners says puts the film almost 20% above its predecessor at the same point in its release overseas, while MI4 was in 3rd place overseas with $28M.  This was followed by the more family-oriented CHIPWRECKED (Fox) (which was in 2d place overseas with $30M), TINTIN (Paramount), WAR HORSE (Disney) and WE BOUGHT A ZOO (Fox), which all fell 36-42%.  Bringing up the rear of the top 10 was NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners), with a 49% drop.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) managed to keep its per-theatre number at $34K by adding a theatre (that's a 25% increase when you only start with 4).  CARNAGE (Sony Classics) went from 12 to 15 theatres and had a $7500 average.  PARIAH (Focus) increased from 4 to 11 theatres, with a $10K average.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) doubled its theatres to 6, with an excellent $16K average.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) also had a $16K average in 6, which was a tiny 13% decrease from last week.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) went from 2 theatres to 7, with only a $4500 average.  SHAME (Fox Searchlight), meanwhile, lost a few theatres, and had a $4500 average at 45.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein) also lost some houses, and is at a dismal $1400 average in 584, while stable-mate THE ARTIST (Weinstein) had an OK $6500 average at 172 (the latter number includes a projected miniscule 7% decline on Sunday).  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) had a $4800 average at 64.

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WEEKEND BOXOFFICE: EARLY NUMBERS

3:15 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


Dateline has preliminary figures for Saturday and the weekend, and as expected, Paramount's THE DEVIL INSIDE took a significant 25+% hit in its second day, a trend that will no doubt continue as stories of audiences in open revolt at the movie's lack of an ending multiply.  Even so, it's looking at a $35M weekend at least, making next weekend's inevitable massive drop seem far, far away.


Otherwise the holdovers seem on target with Friday's numbers.  The kid-oriented movies like CHIPWRECKED, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN and WE BOUGHT A ZOO got a big boost from matinee audiences and went up from 80% to more than double; pictures for older crowds like THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO and WAR HORSE had increases of 30-40% (although TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY looks to do a bit better than that); and big-tent franchises like MI4 and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 should rise 40-50%.  

Everything will come down on Sunday, and action movies may drop a bit extra because the NFL playoff games start earlier than they did on Saturday.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

 

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FRIDAY BOXOFFICE: STUDIO SCORECARD

12:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Everyone wanted to go to the movies on the first full weekend of 2012.

PARAMOUNT:  The studio went straight to its Paranormal Activity playbook to launch THE DEVIL INSIDE (pre-release screenings, months of buzz), and it all worked:  the picture should gross at least $30M in its opening weekend, and with a $1M production cost and relatively minimal marketing, that means serious profit.  No one expects the movie to last long (from all accounts, its abrupt non-ending has patrons all but storming the concession stands), but at those prices, who cares?  Meanwhile, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL held very well (as did virtually everything in the week's Top 10) and could bully its way to $200M in the US.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN had a so-so hold and its US result will be negligible compared to its international success.  HUGO and YOUNG ADULT, though, were on the low end of the weekend's holdovers and are shedding theatres and boxoffice potential.


FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY expanded to 809 theatres and made its way into the week's Top 10, with a likely $5.5M and the highest per-theatre gross in the group (other than Devil Inside).  For a cerebral thriller, these are great numbers--if the Academy can just see fit to bless it with some nominations, the movie could become a mainstream success.  PARIAH expanded slightly to 11 theatres, and should get to a decent $10-12K per theatre for the weekend.

WEINSTEIN:  THE IRON LADY added a theatre for a total of 5, and that cushioned its Weekend 2 fall to a somewhat misleadingly low 25%.  THE ARTIST held well with only a 22% decline, but its likely $6K average at 172 theatres (adding 5) continues to be underwhelming, and eventually the studio is going to have to expand it beyond a tiny number of art-houses.  The perils of that are shown by MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, in 584 theaters (a loss of 46) with a lousy per-theatre average that won't hit $1500 for the weekend.

FILMDISTRICT:  Angelina Jolie's IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY expanded a bit to 7 theatres, and held pretty well on a per-theatre basis.  Unfortunately, it's holding at a low $4K per theatre.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO had the lowest drop in the Top 10, but that still means a hold at a much lower level than the studio was hoping:  with perhaps $11M for the weekend, the picture will still struggle to get to $100M in the US.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS held fine, and continues on its pace to approach but not match its predecessor's boxoffice.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, not surprisingly, crashed now that its holiday is over, and won't reach $60M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still 2 weeks from national expansion--word of mouth is clearly good, as it had the lowest drop on the board while remaining in 6 theatres.  But its $15K or so per-theatre number is unexciting, and the strategy to keep it out of wide release for a full month is looking like a disaster in the making, unless the Academy notices that it exists.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED had a fine enough hold, and still won't get within $85M of either of the franchise's other entries.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO could make it to $75M in the US, which while far from great, could allow it to hit profit if the picture finds an audience overseas. 

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE isn't looking at much more than $75M in the US unless its probable Oscar nominations can lift it up.  (Wins are considerably less likely.).  THE MUPPETS took a big hit for the weekend, and won't get to $90M.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS continued as it has been, with a mediocre $3500 average in 737 theatres despite all the buzz and awards attention.  It may well win the Golden Globe (it won't face The Artist because of the way the Globes are structured), and the question is whether that and Oscar nominations will spur the film to break out later in the month.  SHAME dropped a few theatres, and is headed for a $4-5K average in 45.

Next week, the Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend brings out a few relatively major releases:  Universal's Mark Wahlberg thriller CONTRABAND (which it's been marketing for months), Fox's Tuskegee Airmen story RED TAILS (from producer George Lucas), and Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah family music drama JOYFUL NOISE, as well as Disney's 3D wide re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST.

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD

2:29 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Boxoffice Report, New Year's Day wasn't the bonanza the studios were expecting it to be.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL's Sunday increase was less than half of the 33% projected, and it's likely to fall another 15-20% today, giving it a bit over $140M in total and diminishing chances to hit $200M in the end.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN was up only 6% on Sunday and is projecting negligible change today, which would put it just over $50M and unlikely to hit $75M.  YOUNG ADULT had only 2/3 of the 48% bump it was forecasting Sunday, and with a 20+% drop today, it'll be at $12M and in serious danger of never seeing $20M in total.


WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was up only 7% Sunday (instead of the 23% forecast), and with at least a 20% drop today, it'll be at $137M and hoping to get above $170M total.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, as expected, is done, with a 20% fall on Sunday and more than that today for a $47M total that will be lucky to get above $50M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE was one of the few titles with some good news--a 55% Sunday increase and a small projected 16% drop today--but still, an $18.5K 4-day holiday average in 6 theatres is nowhere near where this movie wanted to be.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED really faltered--instead of gaining 32% on Sunday, it fell another 6%, and is projecting little increase today.  That'll get it to $98M, with little prospect of getting much higher than $120M (almost $100M less than its predecessors).  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had twin 14% drops yesterday and today, and is looking at $44M for now, and perhaps $65M in all.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE didn't go up 19% on Sunday, as the studio projected--it went down 27%.  Nonetheless, the very bullish mouse-heads are predicting an 18% increase today.  If that comes true, the picture would have $45M in the bank and be headed to $75-80M (with Oscars as a wild card factor), but given the giant overestimate yesterday, all the numbers have to be in pencil at this point.  Disney is also predicting a huge 42% increase for THE MUPPETS despite an 8% decline yesterday, and we'll see about that one, too.

SONY:  The studio's projection of a 59% increase for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO yesterday sounded overoptimistic to the point of being unbalanced, and it was--the picture went up less than half that amount, only 24%.  The 20% fall estimated for today may be more reasonable, and would leave the picture at $60M, with dwindling chances of seeing a $100M total.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS was hoping to hold even on Sunday, but it went down 17%, with another 19% expected today.  That'll leave it at $40M, with a $5600 average over the 4-day holiday that's nothing special.  SHAME, on the other hand, had a terrific 83% increase on Sunday, and should decline 25% today.  It's still struggling, though, with a $4900 average in only 55 theatres over the long weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE ARTIST went down 2% instead of rising 20% on Sunday, and is forecasting another 20% drop today, giving it under a $10K average in only 167 theatres over the long weekend.  THE IRON LADY, though, held with an excellent $70K average in its 4-theatre launch.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN continued to sag with a $1900 average in 630 theatres over 4 days.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY wasn't quite where it looked to be (a $25K average over 4 days rather than $28K), but that's still enormously encouraging, a higher per-theatre number in 57 theatres than anything else has in more than 4.  PARIAH, in only 4 theatres, couldn't do better than $16K average over 4 days.

SONY CLASSICS:  The subtitled Iranian A SEPARATION is off to a very strong start with a $27K average in 3 theatres.  

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 30-January 1

12:03 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like $151 million, up 2% from last year.  Saturday business (impacted by New Year's Eve) was not as rough as expected and the studio projections are now fairly rosy, as they are expecting a very strong Sunday (more on that below).  Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally much stronger than reported yesterday.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the recent openers are headed for:  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($110 million), War Horse ($95 million), Adventures of Tintin ($90 million), We Bought a Zoo ($90 million) and The Darkest Hour ($31 million).

In the battle of the sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($190 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($130 million) and Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($220 million) have each been adjusted up.

Business was especially brisk for War Horse on Saturday, with the Steven Spielberg film collecting $5.6 million New Year's Eve, up 20% from the $4.7 million Friday.  Most films, in contrast, declined 15-25% from Friday to Saturday, not bad considering New Year's parties cut significantly into the Saturday box office.



Dec 30 2011-Jan 1 2012              Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $31.3   + 6%      $220
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $22.1   + 9%      $190
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $18.3   +45%      $130
War Horse              (DW/Dis)     $16.9   +125%     $ 95
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $16.3   +28%      $110
We Bought a Zoo           (Fox)     $14.3   +53%      $ 90
Adventures of Tintin   (DW/Dis)     $12.0   +24%      $ 90
New Year's Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 6.7   +103%     $ 50 
Darkest Hour              (Sum)     $ 4.3   +43%      $ 31
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.7   +76%      $ 52 



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Mission: Impossible Film Track      Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Mission: Impossible      5.22.1996   $ 45.4    $181.0    $276.7
Mission: Impossible II   5.24.2000   $ 57.8    $215.4    $331.0
 Mission: Impossible III  5.05.2006   $ 47.7    $134.0    $263.8



Total Box Office Volume 

After a very solid New Year's Eve Saturday, the Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $151 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #52


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $151  M:I 4 $31, Sherlock Holmes 2 $22, Alvin 3 $18 
2010  $149  Little Fockers $26, True Grit $24, TRON Legacy $19
2009  $209  Avatar $68, Sherlock Holmes $37, Alvin 2 $35
2008  $131  Marley & Me $24, Bedtime Stories $20, Benj Button $19
2007  $121  National Treasure $20, Juno $16, I Am Legend $16


2007-10
Avg   $153



HOLIDAY BOX OFFICE: Day by Day

The top 10 films on Friday grossed over $42 million collectively, a very good performance for a New Year's Eve.  The studios are very bullish for today, Sunday, January 1, with over $53 million estimated.  That number looks achievable based on last year, but remember that January 1 fell on a Saturday in the last holiday season.  2005 provides the best comparison -- Sunday, January 1 lifted 18% above Saturday, December 31.  The estimated 26% lift today from yesterday may be a touch over-stated.
 
                 DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8 Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.6 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28  $41.5 Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29  $41.0 Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30  $49.6 Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31  $42.5 Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01  $53.4*Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun
Jan 02        Mon   $38.6 Sun   $20.4 Tue   $36.5 Mon


* - Estimated by Studios

NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)


Next Weekend 

Next weekend, 2012 kicks off with The Devil Inside from Paramount on Friday, January 6.  Last year 2011 started horribly with Season of the Witch starring the incomparable Nicolas Cage ($10.6 million opening weekend) and Country Strong ($7.3 million).  

Look for updated weekend figures Monday.

###

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD

11:39 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



With one startling exception and a couple of smaller ones, the holiday crop of movies declined on Saturday and are expected to recover on New Year's Day.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL went down 18% and is expected to rise 33% today.  It should hit $142M by the end of the 4-day holiday weekend.   THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is up and down a more orderly 23%, and should be at about $52M with the extra day.  HUGO was a little more stable, down only 7% but also up only 15%.  It should be just a touch below $50M by the end of Monday.  YOUNG ADULT went down 24% Saturday but is looking for a very large 48% increase on Sunday--even if that happens, it won't hit $13M by the end of the holidays.


WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was down 16% and up 23%, and should be just under $140M coming out of the holidays.  NEW YEAR'S EVE had its last burst of audience interest on Dec. 31, and is one of the only movies expected to decline on Sunday.  It still won't be at $50M after Monday, and its shelf-life is now done.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE went down 22% and may only rise 10% on Sunday, giving it an unimpressive $17K average in 6 theatres for the 3-day weekend that should rise a bit to $20K with Monday included.  

DISNEY:  What got into WAR HORSE's hay on Saturday?  With almost every other picture falling as per seasonal pattern, and after an unexciting week at the boxoffice, Steven Spielberg's epic weirdly went up 20%, and expects to rise another 19% on Sunday.  It's hard to know what happened, but no doubt Disney and DreamWorks are hoping it's a harbinger of things to come.  The studio's only other picture in the market is THE MUPPETS, nearing the end of its run with perhaps $85M in total.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED lost 32% on Saturday and should make up most of it on Sunday.  It should just get to $100M with Monday included.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had a less bumpy ride, down only 7% on Saturday but also expecting a much smaller increase today, on its way to perhaps $47M after Monday.  

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO went down a standard 21% on Saturday, but is anticipating, for no clear reason, a whopping 59% increase on Sunday.  If that actually happens, it could be at $62M after Monday, although an ultimate gross of $100M may still be a stretch without some awards attention.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS had a good Saturday with a 15% increase, and is expecting to simply hold steady on Sunday--it should hit $40M with Monday included, but its $6K average for the long weekend is still only so-so.  In limited release, SHAME fell a heavy 38% on Saturday but is projecting a huge 65% Sunday increase--even if it achieves that, a $5K average over the 4-day weekend in only 55 theatres is, well, flaccid.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  All its films are in limited release.  THE ARTIST, in 167 theatres, is still very mild, reporting a 13% increase on Saturday and 20% more Sunday, which makes for a 4-day average around $10K.  THE IRON LADY is off to a great start but in only 4 theatres--down 15% then up 20%, it could hit a per-theatre average of $70K over 4 days.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, the company's widest release at 630 theatres, is still a picture no one wants to see.  Even with a small 6% drop on Saturday and a 20% Sunday increase, its 4-day average will probably be around $2K.

FOCUS:  The likely $28K 4-day average for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY in 55 theatres is very impressive for a 4th weekend--now the question is when and how far the studio will expand it.  PARIAH's likely $15K average in 4 days and 4 theatres doesn't show much promise.

SONY CLASSICS:  A SEPARATION is off to a good start, with what should be a $25+K average in 3 theatres.  

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: EARLY SATURDAY NUMBERS

2:52 AM | Labels: , , , , ,


According to Deadline, most films were down 20-30% from Friday, which is par for the course on New Year's Eve, due to early theater closings and non-movie plans for the night.  But there are a few oddities:

Most notably, Deadline's numbers have WAR HORSE suddenly jumping up more than 20% for the day.  If that number holds, it would certainly be good news for DreamWorks and Disney, but there's no clear explanation for it, since the movie didn't add screens, other family movies (Alvin and Tintin) were down 25+% on Saturday, and good word of mouth doesn't generally kick in after a week of sluggish boxoffice. 


More modestly, WE BOUGHT A ZOO was reportedly up about 2%, and NEW YEAR'S EVE was naturally down only about 5% on its name-day.

Boxoffice should increase on New Year's Day, then start declining on Monday before it falls apart on Tuesday as life returns to normal.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated holiday boxoffice numbers and analysis!
 

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: Early Friday Numbers

3:26 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Deadline has initial boxoffice figures for Friday, and if the numbers hold, the results seem to be a healthy amount higher than last year's Friday before New Year's, allowing the holiday period--and the year--to end on an up note. (Note, however, that overall comparisons to 2010's holidays are skewed by the fact that 2011 had more new films in release this week than was the case a year ago, increasing the 2011 numbers by sheer tonnage.)

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Leads the way, as it has all through the holidays, with a 30% increase from Thursday to $10.7M.  That should get it to around $140M by Monday, and a total gross somewhere between the finals of the first ($180M) and second ($215M) Mission movies.


SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners): A 17% increase to $7.4M, which projects to around $135M at the end of the weekend and a final result around $160-170M, about 20% less than the first Sherlock.

ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  A smaller 7% hike from Thursday to $7M, meaning probably $100M by Jan 2 and a $130M total that's far lower than the $217-220M scored by the other Alvin pictures.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  The studio stopped reporting grosses mid-week (never a good sign), but its $5.3M on Friday is probably up around 15% from Thursday, and should mean around $60M by Monday and a very disappointing ultimate gross of $80M or so.  (Tattoo was supposed to be Fincher's "commercial" hit after the "art-house" Social Network,but at those numbers, it'll wind up 20% behind the far lower-budgeted film.)

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Up 15% to around $4.7M, which means around $45M for the holidays and perhaps $70M in all.  That's a lot better than Crowe's flop Elizabethtown, but far from a hit.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  A good 25+% increase to $4.6M, but that still puts it in the same neighborhood as We Bought A Zoo at a far higher budget, unless Oscar attention moves it up.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  Spielberg's other disappointment should have a modest 7% increase to $4.4M, giving it a soft $50M by Monday and another $70M total.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  One day from its sell-through date, with another 25-30% increase to $2.3M.  It should collapse for good on Sunday and get little higher than $50M in all.

THE DARKEST HOUR (Summit):  Managed a 30% increase to $1.6M, but percentages don't matter much at those numbers.  Its final total may not even reach $20M.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis all holiday weekend!
 

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Box Office Results WEDNESDAY December 28

3:43 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Box office volume drifted down a preliminary 9% Wednesday from Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $41.5 million (almost exactly matching last year's December 28 total, when the date fell on a Tuesday, and up slightly from 2005 when that day also was on a Wednesday).  Click "read more" to see an updated daily top 10 movie chart and be sure to read Mitch Salem's Wednesday Edition of HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE. 


                DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8 Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.6 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28  $41.5 Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29        Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30        Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31        Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01        Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun



NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

Updated chart of the top 10 movies currently in release follows, ranked by the Monday-Wednesday total gross.

Domestic Box Office (millions)   MON-     TUE     WED    WED
                                  WED    Dec27   Dec28  vs TUE
Mission: Impossible 4    (Par)   $32.7   $ 9.6   $ 8.5   -12%
Sherlock Holmes 2         (WB)   $24.7   $ 7.3   $ 6.5   -11%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      (Fox)   $20.3   $ 6.8   $ 6.6   - 4%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony)   $15.5   $ 4.7   $ 4.2   - 9%
War Horse                (Dis)   $14.9   $ 4.3   $ 3.7   -11%
Adventures of Tintin     (Par)   $14.1   $ 4.6   $ 4.1   -11%
We Bought a Zoo          (Fox)   $13.6   $ 4.3   $ 4.0   - 6%
New Year's Eve            (WB)   $ 5.2   $ 1.7   $ 1.7   + 3%
Darkest Hour             (Sum)   $ 4.8   $ 1.5   $ 1.2   -15%
The Muppets              (Dis)   $ 3.1   $ 1.0   $ 1.0   - 0%


Top 10                                   $45.6   $41.5   - 9%


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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: Wednesday Numbers

2:36 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,


The boxoffice did more or less what it was supposed to on Wednesday, drifting down 5-10% from Tuesday.  Thursday should be fairly steady, then business should have a bit of a roller-coaster ride:  an increase on Friday, down somewhat on New Year's Eve, back up on New Year's Day, and down again on January 2, before collapsing when everyone goes back to work on Wednesday.  

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount), ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) and SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) remained at the top of the day (Alvin nosing ahead of Sherlock on Wednesday), and here are some other highlights:



PARIAH (Focus):  One of the last pictures to enter 2011's awards hunt is this low-budget, well-reviewed independent film.  It got off to a fine start in 4 theatres with a $5500 average.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  Still hasn't found bottom, with another 11% drop from Tuesday, at the higher end of the day's declines.  It's unlikely to reach $50M by the end of the holidays, and the numbers only go down after that.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to enjoy its few days of glory, with a 4% increase on Wednesday.  There's only $38M in the bank so far, though, and 3 more days before it literally becomes last year's news, so none of it means much.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  A 11% Wednesday increase was the first good news this picture has had, lifting it to $5200 per theatre in 6.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  The adult audience also came out for this one with a 10% hike to a $1600 average in 3.

No new wide openings this weekend, but limited releases include the 2 final Oscar contenders of the year:  Meryl Streep's turn as Margaret Thatcher in THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), and Iran's Foreign-Language Film hopeful A SEPARATION (Sony Classics).

Be sure to  read Mitch Metcalf's New Year's Weekend Predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holidays for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS Dec 30-Jan 1

10:18 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No new wide releases this weekend, the final weekend of the year as we welcome the arrival of 2012.  We are estimating a box office volume of $145 million for Friday-Sunday for the top 12 films, up 27% from $114 million last weekend (which was limited by Christmas Eve on Saturday) and down only 2% from this weekend last year.           



With Christmas Eve's low numbers in last weekend's tallies, the crop of holdovers have a great chance of growing in their second weekend.  War Horse will show a particularly large weekend gain, although that is based on the fact that it played only one day in the last Friday-Sunday period.     


                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
Dec 30-Jan 1                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Mission: Impossible 4   Par       + 6%      $31.2     $190
Sherlock Holmes 2        WB       + 9%      $22.0     $155
Alvin & Chipmunks 3     Fox       +45%      $18.5     $100
War Horse            DW/Dis      +110%      $15.5     $ 75

Girl with Dragon Tattoo Sony      + 9%      $14.0     $ 95
Adventures of Tintin    Par       +39%      $13.5     $ 90
We Bought a Zoo         Fox       +39%      $13.0     $ 75 

New Year's Eve           WB       +66%      $ 5.5     $ 40
Darkest Hour            Sum       +27%      $ 3.8     $ 35
    
Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $153 million total, ranking 10th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $149 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $209 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, down 2% from this weekend last year.          



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the New Year's weekend and the conclusion of holiday week shapes up.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is looking, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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Box Office Results TUESDAY December 27

2:45 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Box office volume came back down to a normal level on Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $45.5 million (up slightly from the $40-42 million for the December 27 date when it also fell on an early weekday in 2005, 2006 and 2011).  The torrid pace on Monday has been adjusted down to $61.8 (from an initial estimate of $67.8 million), still a very impressive number however. 


                DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8*Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.5 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28        Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29        Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30        Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31        Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01        Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun

*-Mon Dec 26 adjusted down from $67.8 million

NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

In this week between Christmas and New Year's, when a weekday generates box office returns similar to a normal weekend daily number, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol remains the movie to beat.  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is a very respectable second place, and both films at the top exhibited a fairly normal drop from Monday to Tuesday.  Films with a sizable kid audience (Alvin, Tintin and We Bought a Zoo) had much lower than average declines from Monday to Tuesday, but the latter two are not setting the world on fire.  Interestingly, War Horse had the biggest drop on Tuesday.  Because of its late release date (Sunday, December 25), War Horse has a lot of ground to make up compared to the other films and it really needs to do better than $4.3 million on a day like Tuesday (ranking 7th on the day, after ranking 3rd Monday) to stay relevant.

Domestic Box Office (millions)   MON-     MON     TUE    TUE
                                  TUE    Dec26   Dec27  vs MON
Mission: Impossible 4    (Par)   $24.2   $14.6   $ 9.6   -34%
Sherlock Holmes 2         (WB)   $18.1   $10.8   $ 7.3   -32%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      (Fox)   $13.8   $ 6.9   $ 6.8   - 2%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony)   $11.4   $ 6.7   $ 4.7   -31%
War Horse                (Dis)   $11.2   $ 7.0   $ 4.3   -41%
Adventures of Tintin     (Par)   $10.0   $ 5.4   $ 4.6   -15%
We Bought a Zoo          (Fox)   $ 9.5   $ 5.2   $ 4.3   -18%
New Year's Eve            (WB)   $ 3.5   $ 1.9   $ 1.7   -12%
Darkest Hour             (Sum)   $ 3.5   $ 2.1   $ 1.5   -30%
The Muppets              (Dis)   $ 2.1   $ 1.1   $ 1.0   -10%


Top 10                                   $61.8   $45.5   -26%

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: Tuesday Numbers

1:59 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


The holiday celebrations at the studios may have been a bit premature.  

Traditionally, the Tuesday after Christmas sees a 10-20% drop from Monday, and that number becomes the template for the rest of the holiday period.  But yesterday, aside from the films aimed straight at the family crowd, the drops were much worse.

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Fell 34% to $9.6M, which probably means around $145M by Jan 2 and a dwindling chance of reaching $200M.


SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  Down 32% to $7.3M, meaning perhaps $140M by Jan. 2 and a final result 20% lower than the first Sherlock.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Thriving with a tiny 2% drop to $6.8M and should be over $100M by the end of the holidays, although that's still a huge drop from the earlier pictures in the series.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  31% down to $4.7M, so perhaps $60M by Jan 2 and $80M in total.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  Down an OK (for a family picture) 15% to $4.6M, which will still leave it with only around $60M at the end of the holidays and a very dour US total around $75-80M.

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Off 18% to $4.3M, so probably under $50M for the holidays and not much upside afterward.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  A whopping 40% plummet to $4.2M.  With probably $45M by Jan 2 and a likely domestic total not much better than Tintin's, it's time to wonder how much a mediocre boxoffice will affect the film's Oscar chances.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to reap the benefits of its upcoming holiday with a small 12% drop, but it's already so low ($1.7M) that the few days remaining till Dec 31 won't get it much closer to break-even.

THE DARKEST HOUR (Summit):  Continues to free-fall another 30% to $1.5M and a terrible $15-20M for the holidays.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Finding no traction with another 31% drop, leaving its per-theatre at $1800.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Also down 30%, but the per-theatre is a more robust $4300.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Off 26% to a dreadful per-theatre of $390.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  Going nowhere with another 33% drop, leaving its per-theatre at $4700 in only 6 theatres.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  Also off 33% at 3 theatres, with a low $1500 average.

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HOLIDAY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE December 23-26

10:41 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Based on actual results for Friday, December 23-Sunday, December 25 and studio projections for Monday, December 26, the four-day holiday weekend continues to look dominated by Tom Cruise in Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, soft openings for Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Adventures of Tintin and We Bought a Zoo.  However, War Horse is showing promise in its limited run so far (opening Sunday), while The Darkest Hour (also opening Sunday) is doing very little business, another attempt at the curious strategy of opening a horror-themed film on Christmas Day.

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (the fourth M:I film) is looking like $46.2 million Friday-Monday, with $78.6 million to date domestically.  

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (the second Holmes) is looking like $31.8 million from Friday-Monday and $90.6 million to date domestically.


Holdover Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (the third in the series) is headed for $20.0 million Friday-Monday and $56.9 million to date domestically.
Newcomer Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is on pace for $19.4 million Friday-Monday and $28.8 million since its Wednesday opening.

In a similar release pattern, The Adventures of TIntin is headed for $16.1 million Friday-Monday and $24.1 million since Wednesday.
Opening Friday, We Bought a Zoo is headed for $15.6 million Friday-Monday.

With only two days under its belt, War Horse should stand with $15.0 million Sunday-Monday.  To put this number in perspective, if War Horse had opened Wednesday or Friday, it would probably be ranked in third place overall, just after Sherlock Holmes with around $24-25 million for the four-day holiday weekend.
Finally, also opening Sunday, The Darkest Hour is DOA with $5.5 million projected Sunday-Monday.

Preliminary international numbers will be posted shortly.  Updates of projected domestic final figures for each film will be updated later in the week.
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