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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 24 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:58 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

The eighth weekend of 2012 is another solid one, running 18% ahead of last year's same weekend and 22% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  This is the third weekend in a row that 2012 volume beats both the easy target of last year's depressed levels as well as the more difficult to beat multi-year averages.  (The first five weekends of 2012 were generally ahead of 2011 but not other recent years.)  Act of Valor powered its way to #1 with a big advertising budget, including Super Bowl buys, and additional free media because of its use of real Navy SEAL team members in the film.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds is a fairly weak second place, just ahead of the third week films (Journey 2, Safe House, The Vow), which are hanging around reasonably well.  The other openers this weekend, Wanderlust and Gone, are DOA.    

Act of Valor from Relativity opened with $9.0 million Friday for an estimated $25.7 million for Friday-Sunday, way above the $18.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The war movie featuring real Navy SEALs is averaging $8,500 on 3,039 screens.  Act of Valor is headed for a preliminary $70 million total domestic. 


Tyler Perry's Good Deeds (from Lionsgate) opened with $5.4 million Friday for $14.6 million Friday-Sunday, missing the $17.0 million prediction.  The latest from Tyler Perry should average around $6,800 at 2,132 theaters this weekend.  Good Deeds is headed for a preliminary $38 million domestic. No, it's not going to be the $90 million when Perry dressed up for Madea Goes to Jail or the $63 million when he did the same thing for Madea's Family Reunion.  But give the man some credit for trying some other things and not sticking to a formula.

Wanderlust (from Universal) opened with $2.2 million Friday -- on track for $6.2 million this weekend, badly missing a very modest $9.0 million forecast.  The Paul Rudd-Jennifer Aniston comedy should average $3,100 this weekend at 2,002 theaters.  Wanderlust is on track for $19 million total domestic.

Gone from Summit Entertainment opened with only $1.7 Friday, on its way to $4.5 million this weekend, also missing a very soft $6.0 million forecast.  The Amanda Seyfried film should average a pitiful $2,000 this weekend at 2,186 theaters.  Gone is on pace for $8 million total domestic.  

The third weekend films are the pick of the holdovers, with Journey 2: The Mysterious Island holding the best, down a very good 32% from its second weekend.  Safe House should be down 54% and The Vow down 57%.  Through Sunday, Safe House should trail The Vow by about $5 million ($97.7 million versus $102.9 million to date), but we expect both films to ultimately finish with about $133 million.  This Means War is on track to drop 50% in its second weekend, compared to a huge 65% decline for Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance.    
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 24-26, 2012    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$18.0]    $25.7   $ 9.0     $ 70
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$17.0]    $14.6   $ 5.4     $ 38
Journey 2 (WB)           [$12.8]    $13.5   $ 3.2     $118+ 
Safe House (Uni)         [$13.0]    $11.0   $ 3.1     $133 
The Vow (Sony)           [$12.0]    $ 9.8   $ 3.3     $133-
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 9.5]    $ 8.8   $ 2.7     $ 53+ 
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ 8.5]    $ 7.8   $ 2.3     $ 50- 
Wanderlust (Uni)         [$ 9.0]    $ 6.2   $ 2.2     $ 19 
Gone (Sum)               [$ 6.0]    $ 4.5   $ 1.7     $  8
Secret World Arrietty Dis[$ 4.5]    $ 4.5   $ 1.1     $ 30+

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $113 million total Friday-Sunday, up 18% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 22% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #8


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $113  Act of Valor $25.7, Good Deeds $14.6, Wanderlust $6
2011  $ 96  Hall Pass $13.5, Drive Angry 3D $5
2010  $107  Cop Out $18, The Crazies $16
2009  $ 87  Jonas Brothers 3D Concert $12.5, Street Fighter $5
2008  $ 80  Semi-Pro $15, Other Boleyn Girl $8
2008-11
Avg   $ 92


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS & YEAR TO DATE August 22-28

1:30 PM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The past week (seven days ending Sunday) came in down 12% versus last year's comparable week (the second down week in a row).  Year-to-date box office is now down 4.1% versus last year.  The Help again was the lone bright spot this weekend, down only 27% from last weekend and shaking off the effect of theater closures in the northeast Saturday due to Hurricane (well, Tropical Storm) Irene.  The new films this weekend were pretty much DOA.   


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between August 22 and 28 grossed a weak $138 million, down 12% versus the same week in 2010 and down 8% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 4.1% from the same period last year (up marginally from -3.9% last week), and all films year-to-date are up about 2% versus the comparable year-to-date number averaged over the last four years.  

All Films August 22-28
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #34     $157    $151    $138    -12%    - 8%

Year to Date $7305   $6885   $7006   -4.1%   +1.8%





Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) for recent films are summarized below.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 




Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($176 million, 92nd percentile)
Captain America ($175 million, 91st percentile)
The Help ($143 million, 87th percentile)
The Smurfs ($140 million, 87th percentile)
Cowboys & Aliens ($99 million, 78th percentile)
Crazy, Stupid, Love ($80 million, 71st percentile)
Friends with Benefits ($56 million, 59th percentile)
Final Destination 5 ($45 million, 52nd percentile)
30 Minutes or Less ($39 million, 46th percentile)
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World ($33 million, 40th percentile)
Colombiana ($29 million, 32nd percentile)
Our Idiot Brother ($25 million, 28th percentile)
Don't Be Afraid of the Dark ($22 million, 23rd percentile)
Conan the Barbarian ($20 million, 21st percentile)
Fright Night ($20 million, 21st percentile)
Glee: The 3D Concert Movie ($13 million, 10th percentile)
One Day ($13 million, 10th percentile)

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday's Studio Projections 


The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday's box office) for all films were very close to the actual weekend number.    

      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      August 22-28               Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

The Help                  (Dis)   $14.3    $14.5     $143+
Colombiana               (Sony)   $10.3    $10.4     $ 29
Don't Be Afraid of Dark (FilmD)   $ 8.7    $ 8.9     $ 22
Rise of Planet of Apes    (Fox)   $ 8.6    $ 8.5     $176
Our Idiot Brother        (Wein)   $ 6.6    $ 7.0     $ 25
Spy Kids 4               (Wein)   $ 5.7    $ 6.0     $ 33
The Smurfs               (Sony)   $ 4.8    $ 4.8     $140
Fright Night              (Dis)   $ 3.0    $ 3.1     $ 20
Conan the Barbarian        (LG)   $ 3.1    $ 3.2     $ 20
Final Destination 5        (WB)   $ 2.4    $ 2.5     $ 45

Read the International Box Office Numbers round-up if you haven't seen it already.  The post features a new set of categories for estimated movie profitability.

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Box Office Results Footnotes - July 24

12:28 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


With the superpowers wielded only by Hollywood studio estimators, CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER has leaped ahead of Thor to claim the biggest superhero opening of the year.  But Captain America and HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) are the only pictures in the Top 10 predicting a Sunday drop of less than 20%, so we'll see tomorrow if those numbers hold up.  (By way of comparison, Thor fell 28% on its first Sunday.) 


TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON has hit $882M worldwide, which makes it the most globally successful of the series (even though domestically it won't come close to the Transformers 2 gross--despite 3D ticket prices).  The film just opened in China, where authorities still ration out US films, and had a giant $40M weekend, and it doesn't open in Japan until next weekend, so it should join the global $1 Billion club.  (Harry Potter will be permitted its China opening in early August.)

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS will be the only R-rated summer comedy so far this season not to reach $100M, although for a moderately budgeted film it will still do well enough.  Reports are that it's been skewing female and slightly older than expected (the audience is mostly 25+), which would suggest a leggy run... if Crazy Stupid Love weren't opening on Friday.

On the indie front, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continues to astonish:  after a 10 week run, and losing 12% of its theatres, it went up this weekend.  The runner-up indies of the season, TREE OF LIFE and BEGINNERS, continued to be rock solid, with Tree down only 10% from last week and Beginners basically dead-even (although Tree's $11M gross is still just a slice of its $30M cost, while Beginners $4.6M is already over its $3.2M production budget).  On an even smaller scale, the miniscule, marvelous THE TRIP (basically 2 funny English guys driving through the countryside and haranguing each other) has grossed $1.2M, a very good number for such a tiny picture, while the documentary BUCK has already reached $2.6M (both these movies are from IFC).  The Weinstein Company's SARAH'S KEY had a good opening of $23K per theatre at 5, while Fox Searchlight's less mainstream ANOTHER EARTH was right behind with $20K at 4.

Somewhat surprisingly, the first trade reviews for COWBOYS & ALIENS are very solid, so its reportedly weak tracking may improve through the week.  The terrific CRAZY STUPID LOVE should also benefit from good reviews (its early Rotten Tomatoes number is 83%).

Be sure to look for Mitch Metcalf's Actual Boxoffice and International analysis as soon as numbers are available. 

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