Movie Box Review

Early numbers for Friday and Saturday suggest that the first day, at least, of Hurricane Irene didn't do enormous damage to the boxoffice.  Deadline reports that THE HELP had a healthy Friday-to-Saturday bump of 38%, on its way to a $14.5M weekend which would be only $1M below Mitch Metcalf's pre-storm weekend prediction.  Similarly, holdovers RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES and SPY KIDS look to be within around $500K of their weekend projections.  

Of the newcomers, COLOMBIANA held steady from Friday to Saturday, and seems to be headed for just about its $10M projection.  DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK and OUR IDIOT BROTHER, though, are underperforming significantly, with respectively around $9M compared to its $11.5M projection, and $6M compared to a projected $9.5M--however, those pictures also got dreadful C- and C+ scores in exit polls, so their dismal returns may have as much to do with bad word of mouth as with wind and rain.  

As of this writing, the worst of the storm is still several hours away from the NY area, so Irene's effect on Sunday grosses may be more serious.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for all the weekend numbers, and look for Mitch Metcalf's boxoffice analysis on Sunday morning.

According to Deadline, nothing much changed for the new boxoffice arrivals on Saturday.  THE HELP is still far in front for the weekend, with a beautiful $19-20M second weekend, and it's followed by RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, with its own impressive $16-17M third round. (Apes now looks like it will pull ahead of Captain America's $162M, and has a shot at beating Thor's $181M--while costing considerably less than either one of them.) 

The performance of the new group can't even be called mediocre.  SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD leads the pack, but with an opening weekend of around $11.5M, its total US gross may end up being less than the $33.4M opening weekend for Spy Kids 3 in 2003.  Wait, you think that's bad?  With an opening weekend of about $10.5M, the total US gross for CONAN THE BARBARIAN may not even reach the $39.6M total the Arnold Schwarzenegger original made... in 1982.  Similarly, with an opening weekend under $9M, FRIGHT NIGHT may not equal the $24.9M gross of its 1985 forebear. And all three of those had the benefit of inflated 3D ticket prices, on top of the regular inflation over the past few decades. Meanwhile, ONE DAY, in 1700 theatres, will struggle to get past a measly $5M for the weekend.  Make it stop...

We've gotten used to elections being called the moment the polls close, and now weekend boxoffice analysis begins while tickets are still being sold.  The Hollywood Reporter has fast Friday numbers, and they show a tightly bunched pack, with THE HELP, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD grossing $4-5.5M for the day.  This kind of result favors Apes (perhaps $15M for the weekend) and especially The Help ($18-19M) over Saturday and Sunday, because movies tend to be much less front-loaded after their opening weekends are over.  Spy Kids, too, may benefit from matinee business on Saturday, and get to $14-15M, while Conan ($13-14M) and Fright Night ($12-13M) are more likely to dip after today. 

ONE DAY is described as described as "starting off slow," and considering that the picture is in a half-hearted release of 1700 theatres and was expected only to make $6M or so for the weekend, one wonders just how soft that number is.

Now that THE HELP has opened about as well as Dreamworks/Disney could have hoped, the next goal is a 2d weekend decline of around 40%.  That would match the hold of Julie & Julia, and would make a $100M gross for Help very realistic.  The film's only direct competition next weekend is the seemingly wan ONE DAY (which is only in around 1600 theatres, among other things).

The FINAL DESTINATION series would be over (or pre-reboot, as we might as well called discarded franchises these days) except that foreign results are more important than domestic here, and those numbers aren't in yet.

We'll see how the numbers play out, but right now, Sony is claiming the lowest Sunday decline for any movie in the Top 10, in what appears to be a desperately sad attempt to get 30 MINUTES OR LESS above a lousy $13M for its opening weekend.

The only notable new limited release was SENNA with a very nice $35K in each of 2 theatres, but there were a slew of expansions from slightly older films.  None of them seem hugely promising, but some did better than others (all numbers are per-theatre):  SARAH'S KEY $4600 in 101, THE GUARD $5900 in 47, THE DEVIL'S DOUBLE $2800 in 89, ANOTHER EARTH $1800 in 82, THE WHISTLEBLOWER $5100 in 22, and ATTACK THE BLOCK $2500 in 40.  Considering that even Final Destination 5 averaged $5800 in over 3000 theatres this weekend, there don't seem to be any potential breakout hits in this group.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for international numbers as soon as they're available later today, and Mitch Metcalf's report on this weekend's actual grosses tomorrow.

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES is off to a great start internationally as well, with $23M for the weekend in just 25 territories (only 4 of which--Australia, Spain, Russia and Taiwan--are major boxoffice centers).  The biggest individual winner of the weekend may be Peter Chernin, the former Fox exec who kicks off his career as a feature producer with this hit.  (He also has 2 of the most high-profile new TV series just around the corner:  Terra Nova and New Girl.)

There isn't much more to be said about THE CHANGE-UP.  All the good feeling of early summer at Universal from Fast Five and Bridesmaids is starting to dissipate after the one-two punch of Cowboys & Aliens and this flop.  Luckily for Ryan Reynolds, his next opening, the thriller Safe House in early 2012, will largely ride on the shoulders of Denzel Washington, giving Reynolds the chance to reacquire some boxoffice points.

THE SMURFS, in its first weekend of serious international release, has a terrific $45M in 30 territories, which indicates strong worldwide appeal... and inevitable sequels.

CRAZY STUPID LOVE went down a slight 36% from opening weekend, demonstrating great word of mouth.  And on that subject, the hat must be tipped once again to Woody Allen and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, which lost about 20% of its theatres and still only declined 14%, on its way to its date with a $50M gross.

Several limited releases expanded over the weekend, with no evident breakout hits.  THE DEVIL'S DOUBLE averaged an OK $6K at each of 33 theatres; THE GUARD is at $10K at each of 19; ANOTHER EARTH a disappointing $3K at each of 55; Miranda July's THE FUTURE $5K at each of 17.  It seems as though the Friday numbers for new releases BELLFLOWER and GUN HILL ROAD were boosted by in-theatre Q&As, since their weekend multiples were a wan 2.5x for around $12K per house.  THE WHISTLEBLOWER sparked little interest with an average of $8K in 7 theatres.  

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES has a slew of positives going for it commercially:  the reportedly fairly low $93M production cost, the month of August ahead with its limited competition, strong support from an older audience that doesn't flock to theatres on opening weekend, a genre and emphasis on visuals that should work internationally--and it's a good movie, too.  Although even with its overperformance this weekend, it won't have one of the summer's biggest openings, there's every reason to think it can be a solid success story for the next several weeks.  It'll be interesting to see how much this does for James Franco's career going forward--he's technically the star of a hit, but barely even gets mentioned as part of its appeal (and rightly so).

THE CHANGE-UP,  by contrast, is nothing but bad news.  Promos were unable to make the movie look less crude or more original than it is, and Ryan Reynolds, who's supposed to have star power in comedies, didn't deliver audiences.  (Jason Bateman is more of a supporting guy even when he's playing a lead.)  Also, as the summer's comedies go, it was relatively expensive to produce at $50M+.  And worse:  next week's 30 Minutes or Less is aiming straight at Change-Up's audience. 

THE SMURFS held quite well; COWBOYS & ALIENS, as expected, didn't.  On that film, international will spell the difference between "flop" and "disaster."  CRAZY STUPID LOVE had a gratifyingly good hold, and may decline less than 40% this weekend--but even though they're in different genres, it does face competition from The Help next week, which is directed at the same older female audience. 

TRANSFORMERS 3 lost 750 theatres this weekend, and with them, probably any chance of holding onto the crown as summer's top grosser; over the next week or so, HARRY POTTER should pull ahead and stay there.  FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS seems to have been hurt by the arrival of R-rated comedy competition from Change-Up, and now may struggle to get past $60M.  HORRIBLE BOSSES, though, continued to hold quite well, and pushed past the $100M mark.  

A quiet weekend for limited releases:  THE WHISTLEBLOWER, a muckraking thriller with Rachel Weisz, seems likely to do around $7500 average in 7 theatres, while in fewer theatres, GUN HILL ROAD (about a father's relationship with his trannsexual child) and BELLFLOWER (semi-apocalyptic adventure-romance) may get to $15K in each of 3 and 2, respectively.  THE MYSTERIES OF LISBON, a 4 1/2 hour drama from director Raul Ruiz, may ride rave reviews to around $5K in each of 2 houses, despite its length.

This was essentially the last big summer weekend for major studio openings.  Next week's crop of The Help, Final Destination 5 3D, 30 Minutes or Less and the Glee 3D concert movie are all modestly budgeted and will be happy with midlevel numbers (the last Final Destination opened with $27M).  Look out for Friday's Glee number, though--that could be one of the most front-loaded pictures of the season.

Here at ShowbuzzDaily, we like to think that we're smarter than anyone else.  But more importantly, we like to think we're smarter than each other.  So the two of us here (Mitch Metcalf and your humble narrator Mitch Salem) decided to pick our own slates of summer movies to compete against each other, each of us stubborn in the belief that our list of films will, by Labor Day, outgross the total US boxoffice of the other's. 

We followed the general draft rules used by pro sports leagues (when they're not mid-strike or -lockout):  Mitch M graciously gave me the first pick, and then we alternated through 2 dozen movies that will be opening between May 6 and August 12.  At the traditional end of the summer season on Labor Day, one of us will have bragging rights and the other will have to call the winner "Mr. Mitch"--at least until it's time for the Holiday Blockbuster Draft in November.

Here's a transcript of our choices, cleansed of four-letter words and threats of violence.  Remember to check back here every week for an update on who's ahead and who's Mitch Metcalf.  (I kid, I kid.)

MS:  I'll start with the obvious.  HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (July 15), aka Harry Potter 8.  It's a rock-solid franchise, and this is the final chapter in a story that's been followed for more than a decade by millions of fans--plus it's in 3D.  Go Gryffindor!

MM:  TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON (July 1).  Summer is all about heat and blowing stuff up.  Plus there's always room for the art of Michael Bay!

MS:  PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES (May 20).  Audiences love them some Johnny Depp on a pirate ship, and even though the last installment was awful, this time there's Penelope Cruz and those tasty 3D ticket premiums.

MM:  KUNG FU PANDA 2 (May 26).  The theme of franchises continues.  Since I just missed Jack Sparrow (aaarrghh! or however one spells that pirate utterance), I'll go with the lovable Jack Black.  Besides, the ads promise it's "Kung Fu-ier"!

MS:  I guess this is why Hollywood worships franchises.  At least THE HANGOVER PART 2 (May 26) isn't a superhero or a cartoon.  The R rating makes a rare appearance in the list of top grossers (heavy on the "gross").

MM:  CARS 2 (June 24).  OK, now I'm pissed.  Hangover 2 was my next pick because it has explosive potential if it's half as good as the original (I hear it's actually going to deliver).  Oh well, I also have confidence in Pixar.  It's just not as cool...

MS:  I'm proud to announce the first non-sequel pick of this draft:  JJ Abrams' (not to mention Steven Spielberg's) SUPER 8 (June 10).  It already has the best trailer of the summer.

MM:  COWBOYS & ALIENS (July 29).  OK, Salem, this is really getting annoying.  Conventional wisdom has other sequels ahead of Super 8, but it will probably be the one that surprises the most and could seal my draft fate.  Well played.  In the vein of explosions and with a "your peanut butter's in my chocolate" combination of genres, I am betting this one delivers popcorn fun. 

MS:  Cowboys & Aliens probably has the most intriguing premise of the summer blockbusters, so it could get that late summer Inception audience... if it works.  Now that we're past the sure things, I'm taking X MEN:  FIRST CLASS (June 3), a reboot that doesn't include any of the original cast, but has a group of really strong actors (James McAvoy!  Michael Fassbender!  Jennifer Lawrence!  January Jones!  Rose Byrne!) plus Matthew Vaughn, the director of Kick-Ass.

MM:  CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Now it does get interesting.  Despite some disappointing TV commercials (that need to be improved), I'm going with the jingoistic ring of the title.  As oppposed to Green Lantern, which many will think was already released this winter with Seth Rogen in the lead.

MS:  I agree, Captain America looks better than Green Lantern--I'm just not sure that's saying much.  I'm going back to the future with RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (August 5).  It's a risk, because the last one wasn't that long ago (and wasn't that good), and it stars James Franco, who suddenly doesn't look like the next big thing... but early glimpses of the CG apes are awfully impressive.

MM:  THOR (May 6).  Now is the time we'd like to be flies on the wall in studio screening rooms.  Not even to see the films themselves, just the expressions on the executive's faces.  I'm betting Thor's well-reviewed story will push it over the top.  Or it just might be, well, over the top.  Looking forward to your take in Friday's review.

MS:  I'm a few hours away from seeing Thor--and suddenly not rooting for it so hard.  I'm going to radically switch genres and hope the Hangover audience still has an appetite for some summer raunch:  BAD TEACHER (June 24), with Cameron Diaz as the titular civil servant.

MM:  That would put her back on the map.  My next pick is ZOOKEEPER (July 8).  It's got animals galore and Kevin James, who has delivered before (Paul Blart).

MS:  Damn, that was going to be my next one--I agree, Zookeeper's in a great position to hit the sweet spot with its target audience.  Ah well... I think we're both united in not thinking much of GREEN LANTERN's (June 17) prospects as superhero movies go, but still it's a big-time 3D spectacle, so it's going to make some dough.  I'm just glad it's Warners and not us who'll be worrying about matching the green lantern with the red ink.

MM:  I'm going to dip my toe into the romantic comedy waters with LARRY CROWNE (July 1).  Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, with Hanks also co-writing and directing.  What could possibly go wrong?  I know, I know--everything.  But we shall see.

MS:  Leading my personal list of "Do I really have to see this?" summer movies, but still likely to draw in some kids (and stoners):  THE SMURFS (July 29).

MM:   I'm going with BRIDESMAIDS (May 13), hoping it's the female Hangover. I know it won't be, but I'm still bitter about losing the real sequel and am not thinking clearly.

MS:  In the same genre, I'm taking FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (July 22), the red-band version of No Strings Attached.  It's directed by Will Gluck, who made the sleeper hit Easy A last fall, and maybe lightning will strike twice.

MM:  Which Steve Carell will show up in CRAZY STUPID LOVE (July 29)?  In the right vehicle he's incredibly appealing.  Otherwise he's dead weight in clunkers.  I'm voting for the former (admittedly knowing very little about the film).

MS:  August is a strange month to launch a weighty historical movie that might want to be remembered at awards time.  But I'm going to take a shot that the fans who kept THE HELP (August 12) on bestseller lists for 2 years will come out to support it as a film.

MM:  I'm going to go with a subject we all know something about:  HORRIBLE BOSSES (July 8).  Enough said.

MS: True enough.  With my last pick, I'm taking Jesse Eisenberg, Danny McBride and Aziz Ansari in 30 MINUTES OR LESS (August 12) and hoping for the best.  Which I believe leaves you with...

MM:  MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS (June 17)!  Oh hooray.  The lamest title on the slate, and it's all mine.  Really feels like a Jim Carrey stinker.  Well, this has actually been fun.  On to the summer!

To summarize, here are our summer slates:

Remember to check back here every week for an update on our scores!