Movie Box Review

Beware the round-number weekend estimate.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) is claiming an even $20M gross for the weekend, which would make tomorrow's adjusted number starting with "19" no surprise at all.  In any case, it's a bit lower than Liam Neeson's other starts in his new career as an action star, but Grey is the toughest sell of those pictures, so everyone should be happy.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) wasn't quite as frontloaded as the worst-case scenarios threatened, but its $11.8M is still the worst opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  No one at all was interested in seeing Sam Worthington on a ledge, and MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a memory in 2 weeks.

HOLDOVERS:  UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) is claiming a 21% drop on Sunday when every other picture in the market is reporting a more normal 35-50%, so either Kate Beckinsale has special powers or the number will come down tomorrow (possibly to 3rd place for the weekend, below One For the Money--unless, of course, that number comes down too).  MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 (Paramount) crossed the $200M mark domestically, and if Paramount wants the bragging rights enough, they may be able to push it past the original MI as the most successful of the franchise.  CONTRABAND should give Universal a tidy profit, but no such luck for HAYWIRE and Relativity.  And despite the hype, unless RED TAILS (20th) cleans up overseas, it won't do more than break even for George Lucas (who financed it out of his own capacious pocket).  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Here's an extraordinary fact:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in only 897 theatres this weekend, will have a lower per-theatre average (around $3700) than the despised One For The Money will have in 2737 theatres (around $4300).  Ladies and gentleman, your winner of the 2011 Academy Award!  Really, none of the prominent nominees are exciting audiences:  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) in the widest release at 2630 theatres, is looking at a $2700 average, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), expanded to 2001 theatres, is at around $3300.  Meanwhile,  HUGO (Paramount), TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) and THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) are hovering around $2500.  And avert your eyes from WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney), with a terrible $1100 average despite its Best Picture nomination. 

LIMITED RELEASES:  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics), which may have expanded (to 365 theatres) in hopes of nominations that didn't come, saw its per-theatre number slump to $1600.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics), which did get its (well-deserved) nominations, fared better, with around a $9K average at an expanded 31 theatres.  The 3D dance documentary PINA (IFC) also expanded to 35 theatres, with a milder $5300 average.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another loser in the Oscar lottery, expanded to 10 theatres and held with a fairly good $6600 average.

Behold Liam Neeson, King of January.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) will easily take the weekend, albeit at a lower level than prior Neeson early-year thrillers.  Given that this one features killer wolves and hypothermia rather than gunfights and car chases, that's not unexpected, and the picture should hit a decent profit.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) may have outperformed pre-opening predictions, but its $11-12M opening is still pretty dismal (the lowest of Katherine Heigl's starring career), and because of online discount ticket offers keyed to opening day, its Friday number may prove to be unusually frontloaded.  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) is an out-and-out flop, and yet more proof that "stars" from special-effects-laden franchises can't necessarily open movies outside those franchises.

HOLDOVERS:  Everything is headed for a 45-55% normal range drop, with BEAUTY AND THE BEAST 3D (Disney) and MI4 (Paramount) on the low end, and HAYWIRE (Relativity) on the high.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  It was the week for the anointed films to expand their runs (except for Warners' EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which had opened wide last week and dropped only 30% in its 2d weekend).  None of the expansions were particularly impressive:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), still in just 897 theatres, will barely top a $3500 per-theatre average, while THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), upped to 2001 houses, won't go much higher than a $3K average.   THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is similarly unimpressive with a $2500 average at 1244, and HUGO (Paramount) didn't find much interest in its expansion back to 965 theatres with a $2300 average.  Despite Gary Oldman's Best Actor nomination, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) lost almost half of its theatres and could manage only a $2500 average at 410, and ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside) didn't get much mileage out of its nominations for Glenn Close and Janet McTeer, expanding to 246 theatres for a $2800 average.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No major openings.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), which couldn't land a nomination for Tilda Swinton, added 3 theatres for a decent $6K average in 10, while PARIAH (Focus) lost a third of its theatres and won't do much more than a $3K average in 14.

Next weekend is the Super Bowl, traditionally a weak moviegoing weekend, so the pickings will be lean.  Fox will pursue teens with the "found footage" sci-fi CHRONICLE, Universal targets kids with the save-the-whaler BIG MIRACLE, and CBS Films will try to gather what's left with the old-fashioned ghost story WOMAN IN BLACK, starring Daniel Radcliffe.

Deadline has early figures for Friday, and they indicate that Open Road's THE GREY will, as expected, win the day and weekend.  If the early estimate of $6.2M for Friday holds, it could gross around $15M for the weekend.  That's less than previous Liam Neeson vehicles Taken ($25M) and Unknown ($22M), but still impressive for a more old-fashioned man-against-the-elements adventure.

Lionsgate/Summit's ONE FOR THE MONEY seems to be headed for about $12M over the weekend, a bit better than projected, but still the lowest opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  Even worse is the same studio's (now that Lionsgate and Summit have merged) MAN ON A LEDGE, which may only make $6-7M for the weekend in what will be a short theatrical run.

Holdovers UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony), RED TAILS (Fox) and CONTRABAND (Universal) are all looking at declines in the 50% neighborhood, but Relativity's HAYWIRE may take an over 60% hit.

Among the newly-minted Oscar nominees, Warners's EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE didn't add any theatres and should fall only 30-35%.  Fox Searchlight's THE DESCENDANTS almost quadrupled its theatres to 2000, and will increase sharply from last weekend, but with a per-theatre average of only around $3K.  Meanwhile, Weinstein Company's THE ARTIST continues to excite critics and Academy members far more than audiences, as its expansion to 900 theaters only yields around a $3500 average.