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Showing posts with label underworld. Show all posts
Showing posts with label underworld. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY'S WEEKEND BOXOFFICE STUDIO SCORECARD

1:05 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Happy Voice/Smash Bowl, everyone!  (And go Giants!!!)

OPENINGS:  CHRONICLE (20th) is claiming bragging rights for the weekend over THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) by $1M.  But both films are assuming almost identical Super Bowl Sunday drops (69% and 67%, respectively), so the win will depend on whether one or the other faces more audience defection today, which we won't know until Monday.  In any case, this is--sorry--a super weekend for both studios (especially CBS Films, with its first real hit), each one's low-budget project now destined for profit.  On the other hand, even to reach its modest $8.5M estimate, BIG MIRACLE (Universal) will have to hit a very low 41% assumption for the Super Sunday drop.  This is based, no doubt, on the idea that kids will still go to matinees today, but since those kids will largely need parents to go with them, we'll see if the estimate holds.


HOLDOVERS:  THE GREY (Open Road) leads the way with a 52% drop to $9.5M.  The picture won't hit the highs of Neeson's previous action hits Taken ($140M) or Unknown ($64M), but considering its harder-to-sell genre, it's a nice success.  After that, UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony), ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) and RED TAILS (20th/Lucasfilm) are all grouped together with 50+% drops and weekend grosses of $5-5.6M.  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate), with a 44% drop that's the best among non-Oscar movies this weekend, will have to hope its good word of mouth translates into VOD and homevideo sales; it's too late for the theatrical boxoffice to mean much.  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) is hovering at $99.9M and will hit its milestone Monday or Tuesday.  Other holiday pictures are shedding theatres as new openings arrive in the market, and won't get much higher than they are now.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein) purportedly has the best hold with a 22% drop, but since it significantly increased its theatre count, the decline is more like 30%.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), playing at 1500 more theatres than Artist, held very well with only a 28% drop for the weekend.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) was less impressive with a 44% decline.  HUGO (Paramount) has gotten a bit of a second wind, with only an 8% fall from last weekend (even adjusting for a small theatre expansion, it's down less than 15%).  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is slowing down, but $25-30M in the US for a biography of Margaret Thatcher ain't bad (and of course it would be boosted by a Meryl Streep win).

LIMITED RELEASES:  Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein), timed to coincide with its director's halftime show and new album, showed little promise with a $11K per-theatre gross in 4 palaces.  The nomination-less A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) lost a third of its theatres, but should still get above $5M, not bad for such esoteric subject matter.  ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside) is having a pretty good hold, down 22% at 245 theatres.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) is finding an audience, a 29% increase in theatre count (to 40) almost matched by a 22% weekend increase in gross. PINA (IFC) and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) are both holding fairly well, with $5K averages in 40 and 13 theatres, respectively.  PARIAH (Focus), though, added 30% more theatres (to 19) but was down 20% for the weekend anyway.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE REPORT

1:35 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,


Based on the preliminary numbers at Deadline, the race between CHRONICLE (20th) and THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) is still too close to call at $21-22M each.  No matter who claims victory on Sunday morning, the final weekend result will depend on how the films are each treated by Super Bowl Sunday, and may not be settled until the release of actual numbers on Monday afternoon.


The preliminary figures have Chronicle on top by less than $1M through Saturday night, with a handsome 20% day-to-day increase claimed for Saturday.  Woman In Black is on its heels with a reported 18% Saturday increase.  The best Saturday bump actually belonged to BIG MIRACLE (Universal), not surprising since it caters to the family matinee audience--even with an 80% increase, though, its weekend total will only be around $8.5M.

There don't look to be any surprises in the holdovers among the Top 10, with UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) leading those at around $5.5-6M for the weekend, and the rest clustered in the $4.5-5M neighborhood.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!
 


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SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD

12:58 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Beware the round-number weekend estimate.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) is claiming an even $20M gross for the weekend, which would make tomorrow's adjusted number starting with "19" no surprise at all.  In any case, it's a bit lower than Liam Neeson's other starts in his new career as an action star, but Grey is the toughest sell of those pictures, so everyone should be happy.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) wasn't quite as frontloaded as the worst-case scenarios threatened, but its $11.8M is still the worst opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  No one at all was interested in seeing Sam Worthington on a ledge, and MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a memory in 2 weeks.


HOLDOVERS:  UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) is claiming a 21% drop on Sunday when every other picture in the market is reporting a more normal 35-50%, so either Kate Beckinsale has special powers or the number will come down tomorrow (possibly to 3rd place for the weekend, below One For the Money--unless, of course, that number comes down too).  MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 (Paramount) crossed the $200M mark domestically, and if Paramount wants the bragging rights enough, they may be able to push it past the original MI as the most successful of the franchise.  CONTRABAND should give Universal a tidy profit, but no such luck for HAYWIRE and Relativity.  And despite the hype, unless RED TAILS (20th) cleans up overseas, it won't do more than break even for George Lucas (who financed it out of his own capacious pocket).  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Here's an extraordinary fact:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in only 897 theatres this weekend, will have a lower per-theatre average (around $3700) than the despised One For The Money will have in 2737 theatres (around $4300).  Ladies and gentleman, your winner of the 2011 Academy Award!  Really, none of the prominent nominees are exciting audiences:  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) in the widest release at 2630 theatres, is looking at a $2700 average, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), expanded to 2001 theatres, is at around $3300.  Meanwhile,  HUGO (Paramount), TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) and THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) are hovering around $2500.  And avert your eyes from WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney), with a terrible $1100 average despite its Best Picture nomination. 

LIMITED RELEASES:  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics), which may have expanded (to 365 theatres) in hopes of nominations that didn't come, saw its per-theatre number slump to $1600.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics), which did get its (well-deserved) nominations, fared better, with around a $9K average at an expanded 31 theatres.  The 3D dance documentary PINA (IFC) also expanded to 35 theatres, with a milder $5300 average.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another loser in the Oscar lottery, expanded to 10 theatres and held with a fairly good $6600 average.

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THE BIJOU: EARLY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE

12:43 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


Deadline has early figures for Friday, and they indicate that Open Road's THE GREY will, as expected, win the day and weekend.  If the early estimate of $6.2M for Friday holds, it could gross around $15M for the weekend.  That's less than previous Liam Neeson vehicles Taken ($25M) and Unknown ($22M), but still impressive for a more old-fashioned man-against-the-elements adventure.


Lionsgate/Summit's ONE FOR THE MONEY seems to be headed for about $12M over the weekend, a bit better than projected, but still the lowest opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  Even worse is the same studio's (now that Lionsgate and Summit have merged) MAN ON A LEDGE, which may only make $6-7M for the weekend in what will be a short theatrical run.

Holdovers UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony), RED TAILS (Fox) and CONTRABAND (Universal) are all looking at declines in the 50% neighborhood, but Relativity's HAYWIRE may take an over 60% hit.

Among the newly-minted Oscar nominees, Warners's EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE didn't add any theatres and should fall only 30-35%.  Fox Searchlight's THE DESCENDANTS almost quadrupled its theatres to 2000, and will increase sharply from last weekend, but with a per-theatre average of only around $3K.  Meanwhile, Weinstein Company's THE ARTIST continues to excite critics and Academy members far more than audiences, as its expansion to 900 theaters only yields around a $3500 average.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS January 20-22

12:22 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The third weekend of the year should generate about $114 million for the top 12 films.  This would be a marked improvement from last year's very weak comparable weekend, but in line with most other years for this weekend.  Underworld Awakening should open at #1 with $25+ million, but don't look for this installment in the series to have real staying power in subsequent weeks.           


Opening at over 2,900 theaters, Underworld Awakening from Sony should average a solid $8,800 per theater (for $25.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews are posted for this film on RottenTomatoes, not nearly enough to summarize critical sentiment.  Underworld Awakening is on track for a preliminary $63 million domestically.  The previous domestic grosses for films in this series: Underworld $51.9 million (9.19.2003), Underworld: Evolution $62.3 million (1.20.2006), Underworld: Rise of the Lycans $45.8 million (1.23.2009).      

Opening in about 2,500 theaters, Red Tails from 20th Century Fox should average about $5,900 per theater ($14.5 million Friday-Sunday). The WW II action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen should gross about $38 million domestically.

Expanding to over 2,500 theaters, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close from Warner Brothers should average about $5,000 per theater ($12.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Critics are surprisingly split over the latest from Stephen Daldry (director of The Reader, The Hours and Billy Elliot): only 49% positive at RottenTomatoes.  The drama should be on track for a final tally of $38 million domestic.

Opening at around 2,000 theaters, Haywire should average only $4,000 per theater ($8.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Despite very supportive reviews (85% positive), the action film from director Stephen Soderbergh should play to a fairly limited audience.  Total domestic gross should be around $32 million.   



                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
January 20-22                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

Underworld Awakening     Sony R     n/a      $25.5     $ 63 
Red Tails                Fox  PG13  n/a      $14.5     $ 38
Extremely Loud & Incred. WB   PG13  49%      $12.5     $ 38 
Haywire                  Rel  R     85%      $ 8.0     $ 32


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fairly typical drops are in store for most holdovers (in the -45% to -50% range).   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
January 20-22                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Contraband              Uni       -50%      $12.0     $ 71
Beauty & Beast 3D       Dis       -42%      $10.5     $ 84
Mission: Impossible 4   Par       -41%      $ 7.0     $223
Joyful Noise             WB       -40%      $ 6.5     $ 32
Sherlock Holmes 2        WB       -44%      $ 5.0     $190 
Iron Lady              Wein       -21%      $ 4.5     $ 20


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $116 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $89 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $128 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $114 million, up 28% from this weekend last year but about the same as (down 2%) an "average" comparable weekend.          


This Weekend Last Two Years


1/21/11

 No Strings Attached PAR R Ashton Kutcher Natalie Portman 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $20  Actual: $20
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $74  Actual: $71
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $77

1/22/10

 The Tooth Fairy FOX PG The Rock Ashley Judd 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $17  Actual: $14
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $46  Actual: $60
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $52

 Legion SONY R Paul Bettany Lucas Black 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $18
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $41  Actual: $40
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $28

 Extraordinary Measures CBS PG Harrison Ford Brendan Fraser 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8  Actual: $6
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $14  Actual: $12
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $3



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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FRIDAY BOXOFFICE: STUDIO SCORECARD

5:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



The Martin Luther King holiday weekend, a relatively small one for Hollywood because many people work on Monday, begins.

UNIVERSAL: The studio made the fairly extraordinary decision to sit out the holiday movie season entirely, presumably because they didn't think any of their product could compete.  They did, however, spend a lot of money marketing CONTRABAND, which wouldn't open for a month.  The effort paid off with an extremely solid Friday that could lead to a 4-day weekend approaching $30M.  But all that advertising was pricey, and the picture will have to achieve a substantial total to make it worthwhile.  It should help that the movie is quite entertaining, leading to good word-of-mouth (although there are quite a few action movies arriving as competition in the coming weeks).


DISNEY:  The studio's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST had a well-chosen release date, a holiday when the holiday family movies (including Disney's own War Horse) are running out of steam but the other studios aren't getting involved.  The result is a $25M+ 4-day weekend that will pay for the minimal cost of the 3D transfer and also feed sales of the new homevideo edition.  

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE was hoping to hit the holiday's family audience too, but so far it's not working out so well.  With a 4-day weekend unlikely to reach $15M, the picture will have to hope for good word-of-mouth (which the faith-based audience sometimes provides) to stay in theatres for a while.  And the studio has stuck doggedly to its strategy on EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which will finally expand next week, and which is still earning a very good $15K in each of the 6 theatres where it started on Christmas Day.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY expanded well to 800 theatres, and should have a per-theatre number for Friday-Sunday (plus a little extra for the Monday holiday) comparable to the one Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy had when it did the same expansion a week ago.  The picture will be hoping, of course, for a Meryl Streep victory at the Golden Globes on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the studio is playing a bit of a shell game with THE ARTIST, increasing the theatre count (to 216) just enough so that the weekend total (around $1.1-1.2M) stays steady, even as the per-theatre figure falls by 20%.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, which lost almost one-third of its theatres this week, badly needs Michelle Williams to win the Comedy Actress Golden Globe.  (Don't ask how that movie is a "comedy".)

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE expanded to 494 theatres, but will need major Golden Globe help to keep those screens very long.  It's headed for a $1500 per-theatre average.  

HOLDOVERS:  Nobody who saw THE DEVIL INSIDE (Paramount) last weekend could look at themselves in the mirror this week, and the result should be one of the 10-15 largest 2d weekend drops in history (and it would have been worse if Sunday hadn't been part of a holiday weekend).  That was by far the most dramatic drop, with the holiday movies aimed at adults looking at 30-40% declines, and the family movies getting a Sunday advanrage from the holiday for a 10-25% fall.  YOUNG ADULT (Paramount), though, gave up the ghost (unless Charlize Theron pulls out an upset Globe win), losing more than half its theatres. 

LIMITED RELEASES:    PARIAH (Focus) expanded to 24 theatres and should do an OK $5K average.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) expanded to 18 and should do a less OK $3K in each.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) returned from its holiday-week awards-eligibility run to 1 NY theatre, where the buzz on Tilda Swinton's performance and local raves should get it to $50K over the long weekend.  

Next week, apart from the Extremely Loud expansion, is all about action:  Sony's 3D UNDERWORLD AWAKENING, Relativity's HAYWIRE (from Steven Soderbergh), and RED TAILS from Fox and George Lucas.

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