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Showing posts with label contraband. Show all posts
Showing posts with label contraband. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD

12:58 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Beware the round-number weekend estimate.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) is claiming an even $20M gross for the weekend, which would make tomorrow's adjusted number starting with "19" no surprise at all.  In any case, it's a bit lower than Liam Neeson's other starts in his new career as an action star, but Grey is the toughest sell of those pictures, so everyone should be happy.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) wasn't quite as frontloaded as the worst-case scenarios threatened, but its $11.8M is still the worst opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  No one at all was interested in seeing Sam Worthington on a ledge, and MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a memory in 2 weeks.


HOLDOVERS:  UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) is claiming a 21% drop on Sunday when every other picture in the market is reporting a more normal 35-50%, so either Kate Beckinsale has special powers or the number will come down tomorrow (possibly to 3rd place for the weekend, below One For the Money--unless, of course, that number comes down too).  MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 (Paramount) crossed the $200M mark domestically, and if Paramount wants the bragging rights enough, they may be able to push it past the original MI as the most successful of the franchise.  CONTRABAND should give Universal a tidy profit, but no such luck for HAYWIRE and Relativity.  And despite the hype, unless RED TAILS (20th) cleans up overseas, it won't do more than break even for George Lucas (who financed it out of his own capacious pocket).  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Here's an extraordinary fact:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in only 897 theatres this weekend, will have a lower per-theatre average (around $3700) than the despised One For The Money will have in 2737 theatres (around $4300).  Ladies and gentleman, your winner of the 2011 Academy Award!  Really, none of the prominent nominees are exciting audiences:  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) in the widest release at 2630 theatres, is looking at a $2700 average, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), expanded to 2001 theatres, is at around $3300.  Meanwhile,  HUGO (Paramount), TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) and THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) are hovering around $2500.  And avert your eyes from WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney), with a terrible $1100 average despite its Best Picture nomination. 

LIMITED RELEASES:  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics), which may have expanded (to 365 theatres) in hopes of nominations that didn't come, saw its per-theatre number slump to $1600.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics), which did get its (well-deserved) nominations, fared better, with around a $9K average at an expanded 31 theatres.  The 3D dance documentary PINA (IFC) also expanded to 35 theatres, with a milder $5300 average.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another loser in the Oscar lottery, expanded to 10 theatres and held with a fairly good $6600 average.

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THE BIJOU: EARLY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE

12:43 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


Deadline has early figures for Friday, and they indicate that Open Road's THE GREY will, as expected, win the day and weekend.  If the early estimate of $6.2M for Friday holds, it could gross around $15M for the weekend.  That's less than previous Liam Neeson vehicles Taken ($25M) and Unknown ($22M), but still impressive for a more old-fashioned man-against-the-elements adventure.


Lionsgate/Summit's ONE FOR THE MONEY seems to be headed for about $12M over the weekend, a bit better than projected, but still the lowest opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  Even worse is the same studio's (now that Lionsgate and Summit have merged) MAN ON A LEDGE, which may only make $6-7M for the weekend in what will be a short theatrical run.

Holdovers UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony), RED TAILS (Fox) and CONTRABAND (Universal) are all looking at declines in the 50% neighborhood, but Relativity's HAYWIRE may take an over 60% hit.

Among the newly-minted Oscar nominees, Warners's EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE didn't add any theatres and should fall only 30-35%.  Fox Searchlight's THE DESCENDANTS almost quadrupled its theatres to 2000, and will increase sharply from last weekend, but with a per-theatre average of only around $3K.  Meanwhile, Weinstein Company's THE ARTIST continues to excite critics and Academy members far more than audiences, as its expansion to 900 theaters only yields around a $3500 average.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES January 20-22

9:11 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in somewhat stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $112 million for the weekend, up fully 26% from last year's disaster weekend and in the ballpark (-4%) from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Underworld Awakening is now looking like it will gross more than $25 million in its opening weekend, and Red Tails over $19 million.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: Underworld Awakening ($64 million), Red Tails ($53 million), Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close ($33 million) and Haywire ($27 million). 


The second week movies include Beauty and the Beast 3D ($57 million) which has been adjusted down sharply and Contraband ($76 million) which has been adjusted up slightly.  Joyful Noise ($35 million) and The Iron Lady ($22 million) are relatively steady.

The Devil Inside ($47 million) has been adjusted down again, while Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy ($27 million) is steady in its third week of wide release.

Not shown on the chart below,  The Artist grossed $2.37 million this weekend at an expanded 662 theaters (for a lame $3,579 per theater).  But the film is gathering a head of steam for a Best Picture Oscar with a Golden Globe win and more importantly a Producer's Guild victory last night.  ABC has to be worried about ratings for its Academy Awards telecast if a very small film ($12.1 million total gross to date) with little serious competition cruises to victory.      


January 20-22                       Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Underworld Awakening     (Sony)     $25.4             $ 64
Red Tails                 (Fox)     $19.1             $ 53
Contraband                (Uni)     $12.2   -50%      $ 76
Extremely Loud & Inc Close (WB)     $10.5             $ 33
Haywire                   (Rel)     $ 9.0             $ 27
Beauty and the Beast 3D   (Dis)     $ 8.6   -52%      $ 57--
Joyful Noise               (WB)     $ 6.1   -46%      $ 35
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $ 5.5   -53%      $217
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $ 4.8   -44%      $190 
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $ 3.8   -44%      $110
The Iron Lady           (Weins)     $ 3.7   -32%      $ 22 
War Horse              (DW/Dis)     $ 3.0   -49%      $ 87



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $112 million total Friday-Sunday, up 26% from the same calendar weekend last year and down a small 4% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #3


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $112  Underworld Awakening $25, Red Tails $19, Ext Loud $10
2011  $ 89  No Strings Attached $20  
2010  $128  Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009  $130  Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008  $118  Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11

2008-11
Avg   $116

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WEEKEND BOXOFFICE: STUDIO SCORECARD

11:00 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



Due to the Martin Luther King holiday on Monday, all studios are estimating low Sunday drops, although some are projecting more aggressively than others.

UNIVERSAL:  CONTRABAND held almost even on Saturday, which is good for an action movie, and is projecting a reasonable (given the holiday) 21% drop on Sunday.  It should get to $28-29M for the full holiday weekend, and then hope to withstand the flurry of new action pictures arriving on Friday.


DISNEY:  BEAUTY & THE BEAST 3D went up 20% on Saturday, not a huge increase for a family movie that should be getting the benefit of the matinee audience.  The studio is estimating only an 8% drop on Sunday, by far the lowest in the Top 10, and we'll see if that holds.  Meanwhile, WAR HORSE is projecting a weekend drop of only 35%, but even if that's accurate, the picture's waning Oscar hopes mean that it will have to look for enormous international overperformance to have a hope of seeing profit.

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE had a very strong 38% increase on Saturday, and the 25% estimated drop for Sunday makes sense.  The likely $14M 4-day total isn't impressive, but with no family competition hitting the market until Big Miracle on February 3, it has a chance to stay in theatres for a while.  The studio's holdover SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS had a good weekend hold, and while the picture still won't match the performance of the first in the series, it'll be in the neighborhood.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE hung in there in 6 theatres, dropping only 11% for the 3-day weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY had a solid $6700 average in 802 theatres over Fri-Sun, although that was less than Contraband and Beauty averaged in triple as many theatres.  Since Meryl Streep is guaranteed an Oscar nomination (and could win a Golden Globe tonight), the picture should have several solid weeks of playing time.  The studio got what it wanted from the limited expansion of THE ARTIST, able to report a 4% weekend increase by upping the theatre count 20%.  Its other awards season player MY WEEK WITH MARILYN is out of steam with a big (considering the holiday) 45% drop from last weekend.

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE tried an expansion this weekend to 494 theatres, but found no audience interest with a $1500 per-theatre average (over 3 days).  A DANGEROUS METHOD had a smaller expansion to 104 theatres, and fared better, with a $5500 average (virtually even with THE ARTIST).  A SEPARATION is holding well, with only a 14% drop in 6 theatres.

PARAMOUNT:  The ranking may well change once actual numbers are in for Sunday, but as of now, THE DEVIL INSIDE has the 19th biggest 2d weekend drop in movie history (12th if you limit the count to movies in over 1000 theatres)--and it's only holding that well because of the low Sunday drop due to the holiday weekend.  On a happier note, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL continues to hold very well, and now looks like it will be the only holiday release to earn over $200M in the US (and much more overseas), and could challenge the $215M earned by MI2, so far the most successful of the franchise.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, though, is losing theatres and heading south--it will do OK overall because of the huge foreign overperformance, but we'll see if the promised sequels are ever produced.  YOUNG ADULT lost more than half its theatres this weekend and is officially a (moderate budget-sized) disaster.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO continues to show surprising resilience at the boxoffice, with the best hold of any holiday release.  The fact that it now looks certain to make over $100M in the US should help David Fincher decide to stay with the franchise.  (And his DGA nomination won't hurt either.)

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS performs as it has been for weeks, quietly making its way to almost $50M at the boxoffice with barely a ripple.  SHAME is at a $3500 average in 41 theatres and will need awards help if it's not to fade away.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY took a bigger hit in its 2d wide weekend than the studio would have liked, with a 42% drop over 3 days that was one of the heaviest in the Top 15 (and that was despite increasing the theatre count by about 10%).  The cerebral, complicated thriller may be hitting mainstream audience resistence.  PARIAH expanded a bit to 24 theatres and had a mediocre $4000 average over 3 days.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED and WE BOUGHT A ZOO both jogged in place, neither one an outright flop, but each a disappointment.

INDIES:  The acclaimed 3D PINA (IFC) had a very nice $18K average in 6 theatres.  In 2 NY theatres, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) reached its art-house audience with a $22K average. Angelina Jolie's  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) has already hit a wall, with only a $2200 average as it expanded to 18 theatres.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES January 13-15

9:24 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in very similar to the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  Contraband is leading the pack, but the 3D re-issue of Beauty and the Beast should have slightly better legs in the long run.  Joyful Noise is not a real factor at the box office.  The three-day weekend is looking like $114 million for the top 12 films, about even with last year's weak number and down 20% from a typical three-day frame this time of year.  We concentrate on three-day, Friday-Sunday performance each weekend so that weekends can be compared against on equal terms.  Also, our model for ultimate domestic final numbers is built around three-day performance and drop-offs each week, with Monday-Thursday performance factored in on a second pass.  Others report the higher four-day numbers (the studios certainly do not object to that) on weekends like this, but we choose to focus on the three-day for methodical, consistent analysis of the data.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Beauty and the Beast 3D ($86 million), Contraband ($70 million), Joyful Noise ($32 million) and The Iron Lady ($20 million).

The two films that opened or expanded wide last weekend were adjusted downward somewhat:  The Devil Inside ($52 million) and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy ($26 million).  The Devil Inside's drop of 77% this weekend puts it in the top 10 fall-offs (looking at films in 1,000+ theaters), right around the drop for the equally-horrifying Jonas Brothers: 3D Concert Experience (-77.4%) and From Justin to Kelly (-77.0%).  The king of all wide-release drops remains the Ben Affleck, Jennifer Lopez masterpiece Gigli (-81.9%). 


January 13-15                       Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Contraband                (Uni)     $24.1             $ 70
Beauty and the Beast 3D   (Dis)     $18.5             $ 86
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $11.5   -42%      $223 
Joyful Noise               (WB)     $11.3             $ 32
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $ 8.4   -39%      $190
The Devil Inside          (Par)     $ 7.9   -77%      $ 52
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $ 6.8   -40%      $110

Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $ 5.8   -39%      $127
War Horse              (DW/Dis)     $ 5.6   -35%      $ 86
The Iron Lady           (Weins)     $ 5.4   +2954%    $ 20
We Bought a Zoo           (Fox)     $ 5.2   -37%      $ 80
Adventures of Tintin   (DW/Dis)     $ 4.0   -41%      $ 81
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy (Foc)     $ 3.2   -42%      $ 26  
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 2.0   -21%      $ 57 



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $114 million total Friday-Sunday, down 1% from the same calendar weekend last year and down a more significant 20% from the typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #2 (FRIDAY-SUNDAY ONLY)


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $114  Contraband $24, Beauty Beast 3D $18, Joyful Noise $11
2011  $115  Green Hornet $33.5, The Dilemma $18  
2010  $157  Book of Eli $33, Lovely Bones $17, Spy Next Door $10
2009  $165  Paul Blart $32, My Bloody Valentine $21 Notorious $20
2008  $132  Cloverfield $40, 27 Dresses $23, Mad Money $8

2008-11
Avg   $142


Next Weekend 

Next weekend, Underworld Awakening from Sony, Red Tails from 20th Century Fox and Haywire from Relativity open wide.  These openings will be compared to No Strings Attached ($19.7 million opening weekend) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today

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FRIDAY BOXOFFICE: STUDIO SCORECARD

5:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



The Martin Luther King holiday weekend, a relatively small one for Hollywood because many people work on Monday, begins.

UNIVERSAL: The studio made the fairly extraordinary decision to sit out the holiday movie season entirely, presumably because they didn't think any of their product could compete.  They did, however, spend a lot of money marketing CONTRABAND, which wouldn't open for a month.  The effort paid off with an extremely solid Friday that could lead to a 4-day weekend approaching $30M.  But all that advertising was pricey, and the picture will have to achieve a substantial total to make it worthwhile.  It should help that the movie is quite entertaining, leading to good word-of-mouth (although there are quite a few action movies arriving as competition in the coming weeks).


DISNEY:  The studio's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST had a well-chosen release date, a holiday when the holiday family movies (including Disney's own War Horse) are running out of steam but the other studios aren't getting involved.  The result is a $25M+ 4-day weekend that will pay for the minimal cost of the 3D transfer and also feed sales of the new homevideo edition.  

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE was hoping to hit the holiday's family audience too, but so far it's not working out so well.  With a 4-day weekend unlikely to reach $15M, the picture will have to hope for good word-of-mouth (which the faith-based audience sometimes provides) to stay in theatres for a while.  And the studio has stuck doggedly to its strategy on EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which will finally expand next week, and which is still earning a very good $15K in each of the 6 theatres where it started on Christmas Day.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY expanded well to 800 theatres, and should have a per-theatre number for Friday-Sunday (plus a little extra for the Monday holiday) comparable to the one Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy had when it did the same expansion a week ago.  The picture will be hoping, of course, for a Meryl Streep victory at the Golden Globes on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the studio is playing a bit of a shell game with THE ARTIST, increasing the theatre count (to 216) just enough so that the weekend total (around $1.1-1.2M) stays steady, even as the per-theatre figure falls by 20%.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, which lost almost one-third of its theatres this week, badly needs Michelle Williams to win the Comedy Actress Golden Globe.  (Don't ask how that movie is a "comedy".)

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE expanded to 494 theatres, but will need major Golden Globe help to keep those screens very long.  It's headed for a $1500 per-theatre average.  

HOLDOVERS:  Nobody who saw THE DEVIL INSIDE (Paramount) last weekend could look at themselves in the mirror this week, and the result should be one of the 10-15 largest 2d weekend drops in history (and it would have been worse if Sunday hadn't been part of a holiday weekend).  That was by far the most dramatic drop, with the holiday movies aimed at adults looking at 30-40% declines, and the family movies getting a Sunday advanrage from the holiday for a 10-25% fall.  YOUNG ADULT (Paramount), though, gave up the ghost (unless Charlize Theron pulls out an upset Globe win), losing more than half its theatres. 

LIMITED RELEASES:    PARIAH (Focus) expanded to 24 theatres and should do an OK $5K average.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) expanded to 18 and should do a less OK $3K in each.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) returned from its holiday-week awards-eligibility run to 1 NY theatre, where the buzz on Tilda Swinton's performance and local raves should get it to $50K over the long weekend.  

Next week, apart from the Extremely Loud expansion, is all about action:  Sony's 3D UNDERWORLD AWAKENING, Relativity's HAYWIRE (from Steven Soderbergh), and RED TAILS from Fox and George Lucas.

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FRIDAY JANUARY 13 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

8:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

The second weekend of 2012 looks better than we forecast (Contraband and Beauty and the Beast 3D are ahead of the ShowBuzzDaily weekend predictions), but the weekend is still looking pretty soft.  The top 12 films should total about $113 million, down 2% from the same weekend last year (which was pretty bad).  More important, this weekend is down 21% from the average comparable weekend over the past several years.   

Contraband is opening better than forecast, pulling in almost $9 million Friday and an estimated $24 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $16.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Contraband is headed for a preliminary $70 million total domestic.  


Beauty and the Beast 3D is also exceeding our prediction: opening with almost $6 million Friday on its way to almost $19 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14 million prediction.  The 3D re-issue is headed for $87 million total domestic.

Joyful Noise is more in line with our expectations: over $3 million Friday and almost $11 million this weekend, just under the $12 million forecast. 

 The Devil Inside looks to be down 77% Friday-Sunday compared to the opening weekend, and we have taken down the exorcism film down to $55 million total estimated domestic.

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
January 13-15, 2012     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Contraband (Uni)         [$16.5]    $24.1   $ 8.7     $ 70
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis)  [$14.0]    $18.8   $ 5.6     $ 87
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$11.5]    $11.4   $ 3.3     $223
Joyful Noise (WB)        [$12.0]    $10.7   $ 3.3     $ 31
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB)   [$11.5]    $ 8.3   $ 2.4     $190
The Devil Inside (Par)   [$ 9.0]    $ 7.7   $ 2.7     $ 55
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ 7.5]    $ 6.2   $ 1.9     $109
War Horse (DW/Dis)       [$ 5.0]    $ 6.0   $ 1.6     $ 87
We Bought a Zoo (Fox)    [$ 5.0]    $ 5.6   $ 1.4     $ 81
Iron Lady (Wein)         [$ 3.5]    $ 5.4   $ 1.6     $ 20
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox)[$ 6.0]    $ 5.2   $ 1.2     $126
Adventures Tintin (Par)  [$ 4.5]    $ 3.5   $ 0.8     $ 80


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $113 million total Friday-Sunday, down 2% from the same calendar weekend last year and down a more significant 21% from the typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #2


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $113  Contraband $24, Beauty Beast 3D $19, Joyful Noise $11
2011  $115  Green Hornet $33.5, The Dilemma $18  
2010  $157  Book of Eli $33, Lovely Bones $17, Spy Next Door $10
2009  $165  Paul Blart $32, My Bloody Valentine $21 Notorious $20
2008  $132  Cloverfield $40, 27 Dresses $23, Mad Money $8

2008-11
Avg   $142


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

###

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BIJOU BOXOFFICE: EARLY FRIDAY REPORT

12:13 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, the weekend is looking auspicious for Mark Wahlberg's CONTRABAND.  The modestly budgeted thriller (which, however, Universal has been expensively marketing for a solid month) is reporting a $7.7M Friday, which could mean $25-28M over the 4-day holiday weekend.


Disney's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST is also looking strong, with about $25M over the long weekend.  Weinstein Company's expansion of IRON LADY, with Oscar hopeful Meryl Streep, should perform very well at only 800 theatres, with $6M or so over the holiday.  The early numbers for Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah vehicle JOYFUL NOISE are more low-key in a wider release, with perhaps $15M by Monday.

To no one's surprise, word of mouth caught up quickly with Paramount's THE DEVIL INSIDE, heading for a plunge of 75% or more that may not reach $9M for the long weekend.  The holiday holdovers, however, seem to be robust, with drops of less than 40% projected for Paramount's MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL, Warners' SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS and Sony's THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all holiday weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!
 

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Contraband"

12:52 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,




CONTRABAND:  Worth A Ticket - Working-Class Thriller

CONTRABAND is a B movie, but oddly enough, that's one thing in short supply these days.  Action movies in modern Hollywood usually come with giant CG-laden budgets, or with a Drive-like overweening sense of self-importance.  A modest picture that simply wants to entertain for a couple of hours, and does, increasingly feels like a rare treat.

Eventually Contraband falls victim to the need to be bigger than it needed, but its first half is great fun.  Skillfully,  the picture takes us into the world of smuggling as it's practiced on a day-to-day basis in the port of New Orleans, and on a run between that city and Panama.  Our surrogate for these lessons is the ultimate in working-class millionaire movie stars, Mark Wahlberg.

Wahlberg plays Chris Farraday, who was once the best smuggler around; the most gifted member of a family in the business, he was the one who didn't get caught.  When we meet him, he's gone straight, with his own home security firm, a lovely wife (Kate Beckinsale) and 2 kids.  Of course, this being a movie, he's pulled back in for One Last Job, when his brother-in-law Andy (Caleb Landry Jones) has to dump the cocaine he's been smuggling for the evil Briggs (Giovanni Ribisi) after the Coast Guard raids the boat.  Andy will be killed unless he repays Briggs for the dope, and as an honorable man and the only person capable of handling the operation, Chris takes over.  Even when stepping away from the straight-and-narrow, Chris won't smuggle drugs.  Giant racks of counterfeit currency, however--that's a different story.  So Chris leaves Kate and the kids in the care of his best friend and former partner, recovering alcoholic Sebastian (Ben Foster), and heads to Panama.

All of this is a higher-pitched version of the 2008 Icelandic film Reykjavik-Rottterdam.  That picture was directed by Oskar Jonasson and written by Jonasson and Arnaldur Indrioason, and starred Baltasar Kormakur, also one of the producers, in the Chris role.  Here's where it gets a bit odd:  Kormakur, although not the director of Reykjavik-Rotterdam, is himself an Icelandic director of note, and he makes his US filmmaking debut as director of Contraband (script by Aaron Guzikowski).  Kormakur does a very capable job setting out the millieu of the docks without overdoing the New Orleans atmosphere, and he handles the plot set-up in a convincing, workmanlike fashion.

Once the movie gets to Panama, it becomes more of a big Hollywood production, first with a large-scale action sequence that's fun to watch but out of keeping with the movie's tone (and which doesn't justify the Wahlberg character's presence in the sequence particularly well).  Then the melodrama starts ramping up, in ways that are alternately predictable and implausible--the latter especially at the end, with a twist that feels like it was added after test screenings.  All of this may boost the movie's boxoffice, but makes it less satisfying as a narrative.  

The picture is still much more worthwhile than an empty action buffet like the Sherlock Holmes sequel.  Wahlberg, as much as any current star, casts himself (except in his occasional forays into comedy) with an old-Hollywood sense of exactly how his persona works, and while no one could say the role of Chris stretches him as an actor, he's thoroughly comfortable in the part.  Kate Beckinsale streaks her hair and has a tattoo on her wrist, but if the idea was to toughen her up in the way Amy Adams did so astonishingly in The Fighter, lightning didn't strike twice.  Ribisi turns on his Mickey Rourke as the hissable villain, and Foster's casting is probably too on the button (his very presence in the part says too much).  There are also some very fine character actors in smaller roles, like J. K. Simmons, Diego Luna and Lukas Haas.  

Contraband is well put together, with fine photography by Barry Aykroyd and slick editing by Elisabet Ronaldsdottir (who had edited the original Reykjavik-Rotterdam).  In his Hollywood debut, Kormakur handles crashing trucks and shoot-outs well enough to be considered for any mediocre franchise--but it would nice to think he might resist the call to become just another big-budget hack, and stick with the unpretentious craftsmanship he shows here.  Hollywood, and audiences, could use more of that.



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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS January 13-15

12:53 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

The second weekend of 2012 looks to be fairly anemic: $103 million for the top 12 films for the traditional three-day Friday-Sunday period.  This would be down 11% from the same weekend in 2011 and down 28% from the same weekend average for the past several years.  Basically, there is just not enough heat or buzz for the crop of movies this weekend.  Not that the movies look bad or bomb-like -- just positively mediocre.           


Opening at over 2,750 theaters, Contraband from Universal should average a so-so $5,900 per theater (for $16.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews are posted for this film on RottenTomatoes, not nearly enough to summarize critical sentiment.  Contraband is on track for a preliminary $51 million domestically.     

Re-released in about 2,500 theaters, Beauty and the Beast 3D from Disney should average around $5,600 per theater (for $14.0 million Friday-Sunday).  The film should be on track for about $50 million domestic final for this re-issue, about half of what Lion King in 3D did.  We might be low-balling this -- but, hey, we will know soon enough late Friday night/ Saturday morning.

Joyful Noise from Warner Brothers should average a below par $4,500 per theater at around 2,700 theaters ($12.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  This mashup of Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton should be on track for a final tally of $37 million domestic. 



                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
January 13-15                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

Contraband               Uni  R     n/a      $16.5     $ 51
Beauty & Beast 3D        Dis  G     91%      $14.0     $ 50
Joyful Noise             WB   PG13  n/a      $12.0     $ 37
Iron Lady                Wein PG13  55%      $ 3.5     $ 15

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

A horrific drop is in store for The Devil Inside in its second weekend, moving its weekend tally below that for Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, which is still pretty impressive at almost $12 million in its fourth weekend.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
January 13-15                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Mission: Impossible 4   Par       -41%      $11.5     $234
The Devil Inside        Par       -73%      $ 9.0     $ 63 
Sherlock Holmes 2        WB       -40%      $ 8.0     $190
Girl Dragon Tattoo     Sony       -36%      $ 7.5     $109
Alvin & Chipmunks 3     Fox       -36%      $ 6.0     $132
War Horse            DW/Dis       -40%      $ 5.0     $ 84
We Bought a Zoo         Fox       -41%      $ 5.0     $ 79
Adventures of Tintin    Par       -34%      $ 4.5     $ 82


   

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $142 million total, ranking 17th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $115 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $157 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a soft $103 million, down 11% from this weekend last year but down 28% from an "average" comparable weekend.          


This Weekend Last Two Years


1/14/11

 Green Hornet SONY PG13 Seth Rogen Cameron Diaz 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $38  Actual: $34
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $106  Actual: $99
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $129

 The Dilemma UNI PG13 Vince Vaughn Kevin James 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23  Actual: $18
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $52  Actual: $48
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $20

1/15/10

 The Book of Eli WB R Denzel Washington  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $32  Actual: $33
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $99  Actual: $95
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $62

 The Spy Next Door LG PG Jackie Chan George Lopez 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $25  Actual: $24
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $19

 The Lovely Bones PAR PG13 Mark Wahlberg Rachel Weisz 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10  Actual: $17
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $50  Actual: $44
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $50



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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FRIDAY BOXOFFICE: STUDIO SCORECARD

12:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Everyone wanted to go to the movies on the first full weekend of 2012.

PARAMOUNT:  The studio went straight to its Paranormal Activity playbook to launch THE DEVIL INSIDE (pre-release screenings, months of buzz), and it all worked:  the picture should gross at least $30M in its opening weekend, and with a $1M production cost and relatively minimal marketing, that means serious profit.  No one expects the movie to last long (from all accounts, its abrupt non-ending has patrons all but storming the concession stands), but at those prices, who cares?  Meanwhile, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL held very well (as did virtually everything in the week's Top 10) and could bully its way to $200M in the US.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN had a so-so hold and its US result will be negligible compared to its international success.  HUGO and YOUNG ADULT, though, were on the low end of the weekend's holdovers and are shedding theatres and boxoffice potential.


FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY expanded to 809 theatres and made its way into the week's Top 10, with a likely $5.5M and the highest per-theatre gross in the group (other than Devil Inside).  For a cerebral thriller, these are great numbers--if the Academy can just see fit to bless it with some nominations, the movie could become a mainstream success.  PARIAH expanded slightly to 11 theatres, and should get to a decent $10-12K per theatre for the weekend.

WEINSTEIN:  THE IRON LADY added a theatre for a total of 5, and that cushioned its Weekend 2 fall to a somewhat misleadingly low 25%.  THE ARTIST held well with only a 22% decline, but its likely $6K average at 172 theatres (adding 5) continues to be underwhelming, and eventually the studio is going to have to expand it beyond a tiny number of art-houses.  The perils of that are shown by MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, in 584 theaters (a loss of 46) with a lousy per-theatre average that won't hit $1500 for the weekend.

FILMDISTRICT:  Angelina Jolie's IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY expanded a bit to 7 theatres, and held pretty well on a per-theatre basis.  Unfortunately, it's holding at a low $4K per theatre.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO had the lowest drop in the Top 10, but that still means a hold at a much lower level than the studio was hoping:  with perhaps $11M for the weekend, the picture will still struggle to get to $100M in the US.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS held fine, and continues on its pace to approach but not match its predecessor's boxoffice.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, not surprisingly, crashed now that its holiday is over, and won't reach $60M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still 2 weeks from national expansion--word of mouth is clearly good, as it had the lowest drop on the board while remaining in 6 theatres.  But its $15K or so per-theatre number is unexciting, and the strategy to keep it out of wide release for a full month is looking like a disaster in the making, unless the Academy notices that it exists.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED had a fine enough hold, and still won't get within $85M of either of the franchise's other entries.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO could make it to $75M in the US, which while far from great, could allow it to hit profit if the picture finds an audience overseas. 

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE isn't looking at much more than $75M in the US unless its probable Oscar nominations can lift it up.  (Wins are considerably less likely.).  THE MUPPETS took a big hit for the weekend, and won't get to $90M.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS continued as it has been, with a mediocre $3500 average in 737 theatres despite all the buzz and awards attention.  It may well win the Golden Globe (it won't face The Artist because of the way the Globes are structured), and the question is whether that and Oscar nominations will spur the film to break out later in the month.  SHAME dropped a few theatres, and is headed for a $4-5K average in 45.

Next week, the Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend brings out a few relatively major releases:  Universal's Mark Wahlberg thriller CONTRABAND (which it's been marketing for months), Fox's Tuskegee Airmen story RED TAILS (from producer George Lucas), and Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah family music drama JOYFUL NOISE, as well as Disney's 3D wide re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST.

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