Movie Box Review

Moral of the weekend:  If you're going to spend $250M+ on a movie, check first whether anyone wants to see it.

OPENINGS:  With a probable $27-28M opening, just how big a flop is JOHN CARTER (Disney) going to be?  Hard to tell until full weekend and international numbers are in.  But its sheer cost--probably at least $400M when worldwide marketing is included, and very possibly $500M--dwarfs such famous flops of the past as Ishtar and Heaven's Gate, both made in the 1980s when marketing costs were a fraction of what they are now, and even last year's huge bomb Mars Needs Moms, which cost around $100M less.  The movie is mediocre; the decision to green-light it at that budget was insane.  

At a far lesser level of failure (financially, at least), SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) is headed for a $6-7M weekend and probably won't crack $20M in total (especially with an ugly "F" from CinemaScore), but with a tiny budget and limited marketing, it won't cause anyone much damage.  A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount/DreamWorks) is only hitting theatres after 3 years because Paramount would have had accounting consequences had it been held off the market any longer.  It's heading for a similar total to Silent House at a much higher cost.  The amazing factoid is that if it can manage to scrape together a weekend above $5.5M, it'll still be higher than 2 of Eddie Murphy's last 5 openings, beating both Meet Dave and Imagine That.  And this:  with the exception of the Shrek movies and Dreamgirls, Murphy's last $100M grosser was Dr. Dolittle 2 in 2001.

HOLDOVERS:  With no direct competition, THE LORAX (Universal) is having a strong 2d weekend, down only 40-45% from its giant opening (and easily winning the weekend).  More surprisingly, PROJECT X (Warners) is holding up fine, with a similar percentage drop.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems.  /Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold up best, with drops of only around 30%, while GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit), WANDERLUST (Universal) and GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) are collapsing as they get dumped by theatres.

OSCAR WINNERS:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein)'s post-Oscar bump didn't last long, as word-of-mouth and a wide audience continue to elude the film (permanently, we can now say).  A 40% weekend drop puts it in line for around $45M in total.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), in its final pre-homevideo weekend, and HUGO (Paramount), already available at home, face similar declines.  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), though, is holding on well with only a 25% fall.

LIMITED RELEASE:  FRIENDS WITH KIDS (Roadside Attractions) is trying a quasi-limited opening at 374 theatres, with fairly decent results for that kind of release, probably close to a $5K average per theatre that should give it around a $2M start.  On a much smaller scale, SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN (CBS) should have an OK average of around $10K in only 18 big-city theatres.  The Israeli FOOTNOTE (Sony Classics), with rave reviews, is headed for a very nice $20K average in 2 NY theatres.  BEING FLYNN (Focus) tripled its theatre count to 12, and will be lucky to hold even for the weekend, as its per-theatre average plummeted.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The big arrival is the Channing Tatum/Jonah Hill comedy revamp of 21 JUMP STREET (Sony), which is garnering remarkably strong early reviews.  2 more offbeat comedies will open in smaller releases;  JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME (Paramount Vantage) and Will Ferrell's Spanish-language CASA DE MI PADRE (Lionsgate).  

There are good movies and there are hits, and given the choice, there's never been any doubt which Hollywood prefers.

OPENINGS:  A March filled to the brim with wannabe blockbusters is off to a big start.  THE LORAX (Universal) may be a bad movie (spoiler alert--it is), but the studio sold the hell out of it, and the result looks to be the all-quadrant hit Universal dreamed of.  The opening day for Lorax was almost 25% higher than the Friday for Horton Hears A Who! in March 2008, and that one got to $154M, so $200M is certainly in reach (Horton happened to be a better movie, but we'll see if that means much).  Also helping:  no real competition until Mirror Mirror and Wrath of the Titans open on March 30.

Also opening well (and at least as bad) is PROJECT X (Warner Bros), the latest "found-footage" contraption.  Its $8.1M Friday is only slightly behind the $8.6M for Chronicle, February's found-footage picture, and while Project's trajectory downward may be faster (Chronicle rose 18% on Saturday on good word-of-mouth, which Project will be hard pressed to match), that could still put it in the neighborhood of a $20M weekend and $50M total, not bad for a picture that has a $12M budget and lower-than-usual reliance on expensive TV marketing.

HOLDOVERS:  ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) and WANDERLUST (Universal) should go down a standard 45-50% in their second weekends, but oddly enough, the given-up-for-dead GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) is holding extremely well and may decline less than 40%.  Amanda Seyfried fans?  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) will fall the heavy 60% or so that's typical for Tyler Perry's movies.  Also collapsing this weekend is JOURNEY 2 (Warners), which held like a champ for several weeks but got poleaxed by The Lorax.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold well, although in the case of the latter, that will still only get it to around $50M.  Worth noting farther down the list is that PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) is now headed for only around $45M, which means with the cost of 3D conversion and marketing, the re-release may remarkably have to scrape just to break even--we'll see how quickly Attack of the Clones 3D hits theatres after this.

OSCAR WINNERS:  Even with the Best Picture Oscar and the giant publicity that comes with it, THE ARTIST (Weinstein) managed only a mild bump at the box-office.  Its theatre count increased by over 80%, but it's headed for only a 20-25% higher gross this weekend.  Artist now seems unlikely to reach $50M at the US boxoffice, which would make it the first Best Picture winner in current theatrical release (unlike The Hurt Locker, which was already on homevideo when the awards were presented) not to hit that mark since The Last Emperor in 1987, a film that made $44M at a time when those dollars had 25 years worth of higher value.  (For a real, inflation-adjusted equivalent, you'd have to go back to the pre-homevideo era.)  Meanwhile THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) rode its Best Actress Oscar to a 10-15% increase.  Winners in the lesser categories had no Oscar benefit:  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) dropped 20% of its theatres and will decline 40-45%, and HUGO (Paramount), now out on homevideo, lost about 15% of its theatres and will fall 20-25%.

LIMITED RELEASES:  The first major indie of 2012, BEING FLYNN (Focus) didn't muster much enthusiasm at the boxoffice (sadly, for good reason) and may only get to around an $11K average at 4 theatres.  TIM AND ERIC'S BILLION DOLLAR MOVIE (Magnolia), also available on VOD, is headed for perhaps a $5K average at 24.

NEXT WEEK:  The knives have been sharpening for weeks, but is JOHN CARTER (Disney) really as bad as the buzz suggests?  It will, at least, have the weekend almost to itself, as the "single-take" (not really) SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) and the long-delayed Eddie Murphy vehicle A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount) are only opening in roughly half as many theatres.  2 romantic comedies also arrive in limited release:  FRIENDS WITH KIDS (Roadside Attractions), which has a terrific cast that includes Jon Hamm, Kristin Wiig, Adam Scott and Maya Rudolph, and SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN (CBS), with the somewhat less marketable Ewan McGregor and Emily Blunt. 

Behold Liam Neeson, King of January.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) will easily take the weekend, albeit at a lower level than prior Neeson early-year thrillers.  Given that this one features killer wolves and hypothermia rather than gunfights and car chases, that's not unexpected, and the picture should hit a decent profit.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) may have outperformed pre-opening predictions, but its $11-12M opening is still pretty dismal (the lowest of Katherine Heigl's starring career), and because of online discount ticket offers keyed to opening day, its Friday number may prove to be unusually frontloaded.  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) is an out-and-out flop, and yet more proof that "stars" from special-effects-laden franchises can't necessarily open movies outside those franchises.

HOLDOVERS:  Everything is headed for a 45-55% normal range drop, with BEAUTY AND THE BEAST 3D (Disney) and MI4 (Paramount) on the low end, and HAYWIRE (Relativity) on the high.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  It was the week for the anointed films to expand their runs (except for Warners' EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which had opened wide last week and dropped only 30% in its 2d weekend).  None of the expansions were particularly impressive:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), still in just 897 theatres, will barely top a $3500 per-theatre average, while THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), upped to 2001 houses, won't go much higher than a $3K average.   THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is similarly unimpressive with a $2500 average at 1244, and HUGO (Paramount) didn't find much interest in its expansion back to 965 theatres with a $2300 average.  Despite Gary Oldman's Best Actor nomination, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) lost almost half of its theatres and could manage only a $2500 average at 410, and ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside) didn't get much mileage out of its nominations for Glenn Close and Janet McTeer, expanding to 246 theatres for a $2800 average.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No major openings.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), which couldn't land a nomination for Tilda Swinton, added 3 theatres for a decent $6K average in 10, while PARIAH (Focus) lost a third of its theatres and won't do much more than a $3K average in 14.

Next weekend is the Super Bowl, traditionally a weak moviegoing weekend, so the pickings will be lean.  Fox will pursue teens with the "found footage" sci-fi CHRONICLE, Universal targets kids with the save-the-whaler BIG MIRACLE, and CBS Films will try to gather what's left with the old-fashioned ghost story WOMAN IN BLACK, starring Daniel Radcliffe.

Even though the Oscar race has had clear favorites in THE DESCENDANTS, THE ARTIST and THE HELP since last fall, the first 2 haven't sparked any huge enthusiasm among the general public, where after almost 2 months, Descendants has yet to gross $50M, and Artist, which Harvey Weinstein hasn't dared put into general release, hasn't even made $9M.  And The Help is still battling against its so-so critical reception.  So despite the fact that we all know the Golden Globes shouldn't mean anything, being the choices of around 85 obscure international writers whose opinions, for 364 days of the year, are of no interest to anyone, we've nevertheless looked to the Globes to provide some clarity.  

That being the case, what did we learn tonight?

10.  Ben Kingsley Has A Very Affectionate Wife.  When NBC cut to a woman seemingly giving Sir Ben Kingsley a lap-dance, Twitter exploded with snarky theories about who his companion was.  It turned out to be his wife, an actress who's probably entertaining offers from Starz and Cinemax for original series right now.

9.  Harvey Weinstein Could Win Awards For a Ham Sandwich.  The old joke is that any decent prosecutor could get a grand jury to indict one, but Harvey makes his hold on the Hollywood Foreign Press Associaiton pay off in gold.  In the 10 categories in which The Weinstein Company had a nominee, TWC won 6:  3 for The Artist and 1 each for MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, THE IRON LADY and--most remarkably-- a Best Song award for Madonna's dreadful W.E.

8.  Jean Dujardin's Appearances Probably Won Him Some Oscar Votes.  First there's his silent Douglas Fairbanks bit to end his acceptance speech, then he leaps into a little dance as the telecast cuts to commercial, and in case all that wasn't cute enough, when The Artist wins Comedy/Musical, he's the one with the adorable dog.  If you're vying against George Clooney, Hollywood's King of Charm, you need every trick you can get...

7.  Stars Count At the Globes.  Exhibit A:  Madonna.  Exhibit B:  Steven Spielberg, taking Best Animated Film for THE ADVENTURES OF TININ just because he wasn't going to win anything for WAR HORSE.  (But at least A SEPARATION managed to win Best Foreign Film over Angelina Jolie's picture.)

6.  The HFPA Isn't Thrilled With The Artist Either.  3 of the 4 categories The Weinstein Company lost were defeats for Artist:  Director (Martin Scorsese for HUGO), Screenplay (Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS), and Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer for The Help), with Supporting Actor going to Christopher Plummer for BEGINNERS rather than Kenneth Branagh for My Week With Marilyn.  And 2 of the 3 awards Artist won (Picture and Actor) were in Comedy/Musical, where under Globe rules, it didn't have to face off with any of the heavier Dramatic competition.  (The only exception was the meaningless category of Best Score.)  The message:  they liked Artist a lot--but they didn't love it.

5.  The HFPA Might Want to Keep Its Earlier Awards Quiet.  Jessica Lange won Best Actress for King Kong?  Really?  It might be a good rule of thumb not to mention any Globe winners from the pre-Pia Zadora erea.

4.  Brad Pitt's Loss Was Meaningful.  Pitt has his work cut out for him trying to get the Oscar against Clooney and Dujardin, especially because MONEYBALL, although it might get nominated, isn't a serious contender for Best Picture, and its director Bennett Miller didn't get a DGA nomination and may not do better with the Oscars.  A Globe win would have been extremely helpful.

3.  Ricky Gervais Can Be As Bland A Host As Anyone.  For all his and NBC's hype of how outrageous he was going to be, Gervais didn't say anything remotely shocking or insulting in the entire telecast, and his "A" material was at the level of mentioning "Jodie Foster's Beaver."  Even what would have been his one sharp bit of asking Johnny Depp if he'd ever actually seen The Tourist was undercut by the fact that he'd just said that his buddy Depp guest stars on his new HBO series.  Given Gervais's limp material, Madonna's shot at his bow that likened kissing him to kissing a woman seemed nastier than anything Gervais had to say.  (The best zinger of the night actually came from Seth Rogen, noting as he read the Best Comedy/Musical Actress nominees that Michelle Williams was in "that hysterical comedy" My Week With Marilyn.)

2.  The Help's Loss At the Globes Doesn't Mean Much.  With the HFPA's foreign sensibilities, The Help isn't exactly their style.  (A loss for The Descendants, though, would have been crippling for that film.)  Much more important will be the SAG and PGA Awards. 

1.  The Oscar Race Is Still Open.  At this point, The Artist, The Help, The Descendants, Hugo and even Midnight In Paris could all still have a legitimate shot at Oscar, as could Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt for Actor, and Streep, Williams and Viola Davis for Actress.  Consider the Globes tonight's equivalent of the New Hampshire primary:  it confirmed most of what we already knew, but didn't resolve much.

Next up:  the Producers Guild Awards on January 21.

Due to the Martin Luther King holiday on Monday, all studios are estimating low Sunday drops, although some are projecting more aggressively than others.

UNIVERSAL:  CONTRABAND held almost even on Saturday, which is good for an action movie, and is projecting a reasonable (given the holiday) 21% drop on Sunday.  It should get to $28-29M for the full holiday weekend, and then hope to withstand the flurry of new action pictures arriving on Friday.

DISNEY:  BEAUTY & THE BEAST 3D went up 20% on Saturday, not a huge increase for a family movie that should be getting the benefit of the matinee audience.  The studio is estimating only an 8% drop on Sunday, by far the lowest in the Top 10, and we'll see if that holds.  Meanwhile, WAR HORSE is projecting a weekend drop of only 35%, but even if that's accurate, the picture's waning Oscar hopes mean that it will have to look for enormous international overperformance to have a hope of seeing profit.

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE had a very strong 38% increase on Saturday, and the 25% estimated drop for Sunday makes sense.  The likely $14M 4-day total isn't impressive, but with no family competition hitting the market until Big Miracle on February 3, it has a chance to stay in theatres for a while.  The studio's holdover SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS had a good weekend hold, and while the picture still won't match the performance of the first in the series, it'll be in the neighborhood.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE hung in there in 6 theatres, dropping only 11% for the 3-day weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY had a solid $6700 average in 802 theatres over Fri-Sun, although that was less than Contraband and Beauty averaged in triple as many theatres.  Since Meryl Streep is guaranteed an Oscar nomination (and could win a Golden Globe tonight), the picture should have several solid weeks of playing time.  The studio got what it wanted from the limited expansion of THE ARTIST, able to report a 4% weekend increase by upping the theatre count 20%.  Its other awards season player MY WEEK WITH MARILYN is out of steam with a big (considering the holiday) 45% drop from last weekend.

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE tried an expansion this weekend to 494 theatres, but found no audience interest with a $1500 per-theatre average (over 3 days).  A DANGEROUS METHOD had a smaller expansion to 104 theatres, and fared better, with a $5500 average (virtually even with THE ARTIST).  A SEPARATION is holding well, with only a 14% drop in 6 theatres.

PARAMOUNT:  The ranking may well change once actual numbers are in for Sunday, but as of now, THE DEVIL INSIDE has the 19th biggest 2d weekend drop in movie history (12th if you limit the count to movies in over 1000 theatres)--and it's only holding that well because of the low Sunday drop due to the holiday weekend.  On a happier note, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL continues to hold very well, and now looks like it will be the only holiday release to earn over $200M in the US (and much more overseas), and could challenge the $215M earned by MI2, so far the most successful of the franchise.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, though, is losing theatres and heading south--it will do OK overall because of the huge foreign overperformance, but we'll see if the promised sequels are ever produced.  YOUNG ADULT lost more than half its theatres this weekend and is officially a (moderate budget-sized) disaster.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO continues to show surprising resilience at the boxoffice, with the best hold of any holiday release.  The fact that it now looks certain to make over $100M in the US should help David Fincher decide to stay with the franchise.  (And his DGA nomination won't hurt either.)

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS performs as it has been for weeks, quietly making its way to almost $50M at the boxoffice with barely a ripple.  SHAME is at a $3500 average in 41 theatres and will need awards help if it's not to fade away.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY took a bigger hit in its 2d wide weekend than the studio would have liked, with a 42% drop over 3 days that was one of the heaviest in the Top 15 (and that was despite increasing the theatre count by about 10%).  The cerebral, complicated thriller may be hitting mainstream audience resistence.  PARIAH expanded a bit to 24 theatres and had a mediocre $4000 average over 3 days.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED and WE BOUGHT A ZOO both jogged in place, neither one an outright flop, but each a disappointment.

INDIES:  The acclaimed 3D PINA (IFC) had a very nice $18K average in 6 theatres.  In 2 NY theatres, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) reached its art-house audience with a $22K average. Angelina Jolie's  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) has already hit a wall, with only a $2200 average as it expanded to 18 theatres.

The Martin Luther King holiday weekend, a relatively small one for Hollywood because many people work on Monday, begins.

UNIVERSAL: The studio made the fairly extraordinary decision to sit out the holiday movie season entirely, presumably because they didn't think any of their product could compete.  They did, however, spend a lot of money marketing CONTRABAND, which wouldn't open for a month.  The effort paid off with an extremely solid Friday that could lead to a 4-day weekend approaching $30M.  But all that advertising was pricey, and the picture will have to achieve a substantial total to make it worthwhile.  It should help that the movie is quite entertaining, leading to good word-of-mouth (although there are quite a few action movies arriving as competition in the coming weeks).

DISNEY:  The studio's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST had a well-chosen release date, a holiday when the holiday family movies (including Disney's own War Horse) are running out of steam but the other studios aren't getting involved.  The result is a $25M+ 4-day weekend that will pay for the minimal cost of the 3D transfer and also feed sales of the new homevideo edition.  

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE was hoping to hit the holiday's family audience too, but so far it's not working out so well.  With a 4-day weekend unlikely to reach $15M, the picture will have to hope for good word-of-mouth (which the faith-based audience sometimes provides) to stay in theatres for a while.  And the studio has stuck doggedly to its strategy on EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which will finally expand next week, and which is still earning a very good $15K in each of the 6 theatres where it started on Christmas Day.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY expanded well to 800 theatres, and should have a per-theatre number for Friday-Sunday (plus a little extra for the Monday holiday) comparable to the one Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy had when it did the same expansion a week ago.  The picture will be hoping, of course, for a Meryl Streep victory at the Golden Globes on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the studio is playing a bit of a shell game with THE ARTIST, increasing the theatre count (to 216) just enough so that the weekend total (around $1.1-1.2M) stays steady, even as the per-theatre figure falls by 20%.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, which lost almost one-third of its theatres this week, badly needs Michelle Williams to win the Comedy Actress Golden Globe.  (Don't ask how that movie is a "comedy".)

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE expanded to 494 theatres, but will need major Golden Globe help to keep those screens very long.  It's headed for a $1500 per-theatre average.  

HOLDOVERS:  Nobody who saw THE DEVIL INSIDE (Paramount) last weekend could look at themselves in the mirror this week, and the result should be one of the 10-15 largest 2d weekend drops in history (and it would have been worse if Sunday hadn't been part of a holiday weekend).  That was by far the most dramatic drop, with the holiday movies aimed at adults looking at 30-40% declines, and the family movies getting a Sunday advanrage from the holiday for a 10-25% fall.  YOUNG ADULT (Paramount), though, gave up the ghost (unless Charlize Theron pulls out an upset Globe win), losing more than half its theatres. 

LIMITED RELEASES:    PARIAH (Focus) expanded to 24 theatres and should do an OK $5K average.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) expanded to 18 and should do a less OK $3K in each.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) returned from its holiday-week awards-eligibility run to 1 NY theatre, where the buzz on Tilda Swinton's performance and local raves should get it to $50K over the long weekend.  

According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, the weekend is looking auspicious for Mark Wahlberg's CONTRABAND.  The modestly budgeted thriller (which, however, Universal has been expensively marketing for a solid month) is reporting a $7.7M Friday, which could mean $25-28M over the 4-day holiday weekend.

Disney's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST is also looking strong, with about $25M over the long weekend.  Weinstein Company's expansion of IRON LADY, with Oscar hopeful Meryl Streep, should perform very well at only 800 theatres, with $6M or so over the holiday.  The early numbers for Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah vehicle JOYFUL NOISE are more low-key in a wider release, with perhaps $15M by Monday.

To no one's surprise, word of mouth caught up quickly with Paramount's THE DEVIL INSIDE, heading for a plunge of 75% or more that may not reach $9M for the long weekend.  The holiday holdovers, however, seem to be robust, with drops of less than 40% projected for Paramount's MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL, Warners' SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS and Sony's THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO.  

Live by Cinemascore, die by Cinemascore.

THE DEVIL INSIDE:  The most hilarious studio event of the last 24 hours has been Paramount's frantic attempt to argue that an "F" Cinemascore for THE DEVIL INSIDE, making it one of the half-dozen worst exit-polled movies of the past several years, isn't really that bad if you take out your abacus and do their version of the math.  The studio's spin has blanketed Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, and no doubt other industry mouthpieces.  At SHOWBUZZDAILY, we don't put much stock in Cinemascore to begin with, but the studios normally cling to every B+ and A- like guarantees of Oscar glory, so the ego involved in arguing that the lowest possible score is not-so-bad is much like a parent insisting their kid's getting expelled from school is some kind of triumph.  Spin aside, Devil Inside had a remarkably strong, if predictably front-loaded, $34.5M weekend, with a 30% drop on Saturday and another 50% (which may end up being low) projected for Sunday.  Paramount would be best advised to shut up and count its money.  

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  A very fine expansion with $5.8M in 809 theatres (the studio is currently projecting a very low Sunday drop, so that number could end up slightly lower), with the best per-screen average (other than Devil Inside) for any picture this weekend in more than 11 theatres.

WIDE HOLDOVERS:  The smallest drop in the Top 10 was for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony), with a mere 24% fall as it tries to hack its way to $100M.  Then MI4 (Paramount) and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 (Warners) continued to hold well with declines in the 30-35% area.  Sherlock also won the weekend internationally, with $43M in 50 territories that Warners says puts the film almost 20% above its predecessor at the same point in its release overseas, while MI4 was in 3rd place overseas with $28M.  This was followed by the more family-oriented CHIPWRECKED (Fox) (which was in 2d place overseas with $30M), TINTIN (Paramount), WAR HORSE (Disney) and WE BOUGHT A ZOO (Fox), which all fell 36-42%.  Bringing up the rear of the top 10 was NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners), with a 49% drop.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) managed to keep its per-theatre number at $34K by adding a theatre (that's a 25% increase when you only start with 4).  CARNAGE (Sony Classics) went from 12 to 15 theatres and had a $7500 average.  PARIAH (Focus) increased from 4 to 11 theatres, with a $10K average.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) doubled its theatres to 6, with an excellent $16K average.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) also had a $16K average in 6, which was a tiny 13% decrease from last week.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) went from 2 theatres to 7, with only a $4500 average.  SHAME (Fox Searchlight), meanwhile, lost a few theatres, and had a $4500 average at 45.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein) also lost some houses, and is at a dismal $1400 average in 584, while stable-mate THE ARTIST (Weinstein) had an OK $6500 average at 172 (the latter number includes a projected miniscule 7% decline on Sunday).  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) had a $4800 average at 64.

Everyone wanted to go to the movies on the first full weekend of 2012.

PARAMOUNT:  The studio went straight to its Paranormal Activity playbook to launch THE DEVIL INSIDE (pre-release screenings, months of buzz), and it all worked:  the picture should gross at least $30M in its opening weekend, and with a $1M production cost and relatively minimal marketing, that means serious profit.  No one expects the movie to last long (from all accounts, its abrupt non-ending has patrons all but storming the concession stands), but at those prices, who cares?  Meanwhile, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL held very well (as did virtually everything in the week's Top 10) and could bully its way to $200M in the US.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN had a so-so hold and its US result will be negligible compared to its international success.  HUGO and YOUNG ADULT, though, were on the low end of the weekend's holdovers and are shedding theatres and boxoffice potential.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY expanded to 809 theatres and made its way into the week's Top 10, with a likely $5.5M and the highest per-theatre gross in the group (other than Devil Inside).  For a cerebral thriller, these are great numbers--if the Academy can just see fit to bless it with some nominations, the movie could become a mainstream success.  PARIAH expanded slightly to 11 theatres, and should get to a decent $10-12K per theatre for the weekend.

WEINSTEIN:  THE IRON LADY added a theatre for a total of 5, and that cushioned its Weekend 2 fall to a somewhat misleadingly low 25%.  THE ARTIST held well with only a 22% decline, but its likely $6K average at 172 theatres (adding 5) continues to be underwhelming, and eventually the studio is going to have to expand it beyond a tiny number of art-houses.  The perils of that are shown by MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, in 584 theaters (a loss of 46) with a lousy per-theatre average that won't hit $1500 for the weekend.

FILMDISTRICT:  Angelina Jolie's IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY expanded a bit to 7 theatres, and held pretty well on a per-theatre basis.  Unfortunately, it's holding at a low $4K per theatre.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO had the lowest drop in the Top 10, but that still means a hold at a much lower level than the studio was hoping:  with perhaps $11M for the weekend, the picture will still struggle to get to $100M in the US.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS held fine, and continues on its pace to approach but not match its predecessor's boxoffice.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, not surprisingly, crashed now that its holiday is over, and won't reach $60M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still 2 weeks from national expansion--word of mouth is clearly good, as it had the lowest drop on the board while remaining in 6 theatres.  But its $15K or so per-theatre number is unexciting, and the strategy to keep it out of wide release for a full month is looking like a disaster in the making, unless the Academy notices that it exists.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED had a fine enough hold, and still won't get within $85M of either of the franchise's other entries.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO could make it to $75M in the US, which while far from great, could allow it to hit profit if the picture finds an audience overseas. 

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE isn't looking at much more than $75M in the US unless its probable Oscar nominations can lift it up.  (Wins are considerably less likely.).  THE MUPPETS took a big hit for the weekend, and won't get to $90M.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS continued as it has been, with a mediocre $3500 average in 737 theatres despite all the buzz and awards attention.  It may well win the Golden Globe (it won't face The Artist because of the way the Globes are structured), and the question is whether that and Oscar nominations will spur the film to break out later in the month.  SHAME dropped a few theatres, and is headed for a $4-5K average in 45.

Next week, the Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend brings out a few relatively major releases:  Universal's Mark Wahlberg thriller CONTRABAND (which it's been marketing for months), Fox's Tuskegee Airmen story RED TAILS (from producer George Lucas), and Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah family music drama JOYFUL NOISE, as well as Disney's 3D wide re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST.

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Boxoffice Report, New Year's Day wasn't the bonanza the studios were expecting it to be.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL's Sunday increase was less than half of the 33% projected, and it's likely to fall another 15-20% today, giving it a bit over $140M in total and diminishing chances to hit $200M in the end.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN was up only 6% on Sunday and is projecting negligible change today, which would put it just over $50M and unlikely to hit $75M.  YOUNG ADULT had only 2/3 of the 48% bump it was forecasting Sunday, and with a 20+% drop today, it'll be at $12M and in serious danger of never seeing $20M in total.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was up only 7% Sunday (instead of the 23% forecast), and with at least a 20% drop today, it'll be at $137M and hoping to get above $170M total.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, as expected, is done, with a 20% fall on Sunday and more than that today for a $47M total that will be lucky to get above $50M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE was one of the few titles with some good news--a 55% Sunday increase and a small projected 16% drop today--but still, an $18.5K 4-day holiday average in 6 theatres is nowhere near where this movie wanted to be.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED really faltered--instead of gaining 32% on Sunday, it fell another 6%, and is projecting little increase today.  That'll get it to $98M, with little prospect of getting much higher than $120M (almost $100M less than its predecessors).  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had twin 14% drops yesterday and today, and is looking at $44M for now, and perhaps $65M in all.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE didn't go up 19% on Sunday, as the studio projected--it went down 27%.  Nonetheless, the very bullish mouse-heads are predicting an 18% increase today.  If that comes true, the picture would have $45M in the bank and be headed to $75-80M (with Oscars as a wild card factor), but given the giant overestimate yesterday, all the numbers have to be in pencil at this point.  Disney is also predicting a huge 42% increase for THE MUPPETS despite an 8% decline yesterday, and we'll see about that one, too.

SONY:  The studio's projection of a 59% increase for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO yesterday sounded overoptimistic to the point of being unbalanced, and it was--the picture went up less than half that amount, only 24%.  The 20% fall estimated for today may be more reasonable, and would leave the picture at $60M, with dwindling chances of seeing a $100M total.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS was hoping to hold even on Sunday, but it went down 17%, with another 19% expected today.  That'll leave it at $40M, with a $5600 average over the 4-day holiday that's nothing special.  SHAME, on the other hand, had a terrific 83% increase on Sunday, and should decline 25% today.  It's still struggling, though, with a $4900 average in only 55 theatres over the long weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE ARTIST went down 2% instead of rising 20% on Sunday, and is forecasting another 20% drop today, giving it under a $10K average in only 167 theatres over the long weekend.  THE IRON LADY, though, held with an excellent $70K average in its 4-theatre launch.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN continued to sag with a $1900 average in 630 theatres over 4 days.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY wasn't quite where it looked to be (a $25K average over 4 days rather than $28K), but that's still enormously encouraging, a higher per-theatre number in 57 theatres than anything else has in more than 4.  PARIAH, in only 4 theatres, couldn't do better than $16K average over 4 days.

SONY CLASSICS:  The subtitled Iranian A SEPARATION is off to a very strong start with a $27K average in 3 theatres.  

With one startling exception and a couple of smaller ones, the holiday crop of movies declined on Saturday and are expected to recover on New Year's Day.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL went down 18% and is expected to rise 33% today.  It should hit $142M by the end of the 4-day holiday weekend.   THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is up and down a more orderly 23%, and should be at about $52M with the extra day.  HUGO was a little more stable, down only 7% but also up only 15%.  It should be just a touch below $50M by the end of Monday.  YOUNG ADULT went down 24% Saturday but is looking for a very large 48% increase on Sunday--even if that happens, it won't hit $13M by the end of the holidays.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was down 16% and up 23%, and should be just under $140M coming out of the holidays.  NEW YEAR'S EVE had its last burst of audience interest on Dec. 31, and is one of the only movies expected to decline on Sunday.  It still won't be at $50M after Monday, and its shelf-life is now done.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE went down 22% and may only rise 10% on Sunday, giving it an unimpressive $17K average in 6 theatres for the 3-day weekend that should rise a bit to $20K with Monday included.  

DISNEY:  What got into WAR HORSE's hay on Saturday?  With almost every other picture falling as per seasonal pattern, and after an unexciting week at the boxoffice, Steven Spielberg's epic weirdly went up 20%, and expects to rise another 19% on Sunday.  It's hard to know what happened, but no doubt Disney and DreamWorks are hoping it's a harbinger of things to come.  The studio's only other picture in the market is THE MUPPETS, nearing the end of its run with perhaps $85M in total.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED lost 32% on Saturday and should make up most of it on Sunday.  It should just get to $100M with Monday included.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had a less bumpy ride, down only 7% on Saturday but also expecting a much smaller increase today, on its way to perhaps $47M after Monday.  

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO went down a standard 21% on Saturday, but is anticipating, for no clear reason, a whopping 59% increase on Sunday.  If that actually happens, it could be at $62M after Monday, although an ultimate gross of $100M may still be a stretch without some awards attention.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS had a good Saturday with a 15% increase, and is expecting to simply hold steady on Sunday--it should hit $40M with Monday included, but its $6K average for the long weekend is still only so-so.  In limited release, SHAME fell a heavy 38% on Saturday but is projecting a huge 65% Sunday increase--even if it achieves that, a $5K average over the 4-day weekend in only 55 theatres is, well, flaccid.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  All its films are in limited release.  THE ARTIST, in 167 theatres, is still very mild, reporting a 13% increase on Saturday and 20% more Sunday, which makes for a 4-day average around $10K.  THE IRON LADY is off to a great start but in only 4 theatres--down 15% then up 20%, it could hit a per-theatre average of $70K over 4 days.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, the company's widest release at 630 theatres, is still a picture no one wants to see.  Even with a small 6% drop on Saturday and a 20% Sunday increase, its 4-day average will probably be around $2K.

FOCUS:  The likely $28K 4-day average for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY in 55 theatres is very impressive for a 4th weekend--now the question is when and how far the studio will expand it.  PARIAH's likely $15K average in 4 days and 4 theatres doesn't show much promise.

SONY CLASSICS:  A SEPARATION is off to a good start, with what should be a $25+K average in 3 theatres.  

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Boxoffice Report, Friday's numbers were solid but lacking any breakout excitement.  First, let's take a quick look at the limited-run Oscar hopefuls:

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein):  Meryl-Streep-as-Margaret-Thatcher came roaring into the awards mix with a terrific $19K average in 4 theatres that should lead it to a $75-80K average over the 4 day holiday weekend.  The film's appeal outside big-city art houses is questionable, though, so here's one of several cases where Harvey Weinstein will have to play the expansion game very carefully.

A SEPARATION (Sony Classics):  This excellent Iranian import, a front-runner for the Foreign-Language Film Oscar, started with a very good $6K average in 3 theatres that should get it to around $25K per-theatre over the holiday weekend.

PARIAH (Focus):  Bounced back a bit from Thursday's slump, but its $3500 average in 4 theatres isn't a great start, and it may struggle to reach a $15K average for the weekend.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Continues to be mediocre, with a $2400 average in 167 theatres that won't hit $10K by Jan 2.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Continues to hold very well, with a $6K average on Friday in 55 theatres that should reach $25K over the holiday weekend.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  Not doing better than OK, with a $1500 average on Friday in 55 theatres that might reach $6K for the weekend.  

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict)  The same numbers as Shame ($1500 average Friday for a $6K weekend), but much worse because it's only at 2 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Harvey is 0-for-3 in the breakout hit category, with a dismal $500 average in 630 theatres that won't get past $2K for the weekend.

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  The Oscar front-runner no one seems to care about.  It only had a $1500 average in 758 theatres on Friday, and won't get higher than a $6K average for the weekend.  That will put it at $40M, in serious danger of dropping screens by the time the Oscar nominations are announced in late January.  At that point, it's going to be difficult to spark widespread excitement over a picture that's already been playing as a presumptive nominee for 2 full months.

And at the major studios:

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL is the one smash hit of the season, even though it won't be the highest-grossing of the series.  With even bigger numbers pouring in overseas ($200M already, with plenty more to come), announcement of a 5th chapter in the series should be coming any time.  However, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (which Sony distributes overseas) is a major disappointment that will barely recoup its enormous US marketing cost, placing the planned franchise in jeopardy.  The very expensive HUGO, despite its critical adoration, is mostly done with $50M total gross--even an expected Oscar nomination probably won't get it much farther.  And YOUNG ADULT has found no traction at all--the reviews were weaker than expected, and with only $12.5M in the bank by the end of the holidays and an anticipated holiday average under $3K in only 987 theatres, even Charlize Theron's possible Best Actress nomination won't convince more theatres to play it.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS will underperform its predecessor, but a $170-180M gross isn't bad (it might be more accurate to say the first picture overperformed, all things considered).  It's only played in a handful of foreign territories so far, and the results there will determine whether the expensive franchise is worth continuing.  NEW YEAR'S EVE is a flop, although not a very expensive one.  The big disappointment thus far is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which hit a perfect storm of bitterly mixed reviews, some bad scheduling choices and a faltering awards campaign.  This weekend it's headed for a $25K average in 6 theatres, which is OK but not at all the event that the studio needed to propel the film into wide release later in January.

FOX:  ALVIN THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED will be the highest-grossing kids' movie of the season, turn a profit and very possibly justify another installment--but its almost 50% drop from the other films in the series is fairly disastrous, and turns what had been a cash cow into a risk.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO will need help from uncertain foreign revenues if it's to avoid red ink.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO isn't the flop of the season, but it may be the biggest disappointment.  Was it the favorable-but-not-enthusiastic reviews?  The dour tone of the marketing?  An overdose of the franchise, after the successful Swedish films and months of publicity?  In any case, it's going to be hard to justify spending $100M on the sequel--and Fincher, who's perpetually in demand, may well decide to bow out.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, though--that's an (undeserved) flop.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE is sparking very little interest, and at this point seems unlikely to reach $100M despite very aggressive marketing, even with the anticipated Oscar nominations.  It's ironic that since DreamWorks joined Disney, their one smash hit has been the completely unexpected The Help.  This also leads to what could be a very ticklish internal political issue:  does The Help now have a better chance at winning the Oscar than War Horse?  And will Spielberg allow his pet project to fall to second place in the campaigning strategy?  Meanwhile THE MUPPETS was a nice-sized hit due to its relatively modest budget, but it's far from clear that there's a franchise there.  The combined grosses of Disney's 2 holiday pictures won't reach the boxoffice for 2010's Tangled alone--combined with the disappointing US responses to Cars 2 and Pirates 4, it's been an off-year for the studio.

UNIVERSAL:  Sat out the holiday season entirely.  They've been spending a lot of money marketing the Mark Wahlberg action picture CONTRABAND all month, though, giving it the kind of weeks-long push that normally goes to much bigger pictures.  We'll find out in a couple of weeks if the strategy made sense.

The boxoffice did more or less what it was supposed to on Wednesday, drifting down 5-10% from Tuesday.  Thursday should be fairly steady, then business should have a bit of a roller-coaster ride:  an increase on Friday, down somewhat on New Year's Eve, back up on New Year's Day, and down again on January 2, before collapsing when everyone goes back to work on Wednesday.  

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount), ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) and SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) remained at the top of the day (Alvin nosing ahead of Sherlock on Wednesday), and here are some other highlights:

PARIAH (Focus):  One of the last pictures to enter 2011's awards hunt is this low-budget, well-reviewed independent film.  It got off to a fine start in 4 theatres with a $5500 average.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  Still hasn't found bottom, with another 11% drop from Tuesday, at the higher end of the day's declines.  It's unlikely to reach $50M by the end of the holidays, and the numbers only go down after that.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to enjoy its few days of glory, with a 4% increase on Wednesday.  There's only $38M in the bank so far, though, and 3 more days before it literally becomes last year's news, so none of it means much.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  A 11% Wednesday increase was the first good news this picture has had, lifting it to $5200 per theatre in 6.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  The adult audience also came out for this one with a 10% hike to a $1600 average in 3.

No new wide openings this weekend, but limited releases include the 2 final Oscar contenders of the year:  Meryl Streep's turn as Margaret Thatcher in THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), and Iran's Foreign-Language Film hopeful A SEPARATION (Sony Classics).

Be sure to  read Mitch Metcalf's New Year's Weekend Predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holidays for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

The New York Film Critics Circle famously (notoriously?), having decided that they simply couldn't wait to announce their 2011 awards until, y'know, they had actually seen all the movies (when Warners couldn't rush them a copy of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close--which doesn't open until December 25--the Circle simply ignored it), has made its late-November proclamations.  After the break, the winners and some thoughts:

Best Picture:  THE ARTIST  It's Oscar time, and that means Harvey Weinstein.  The Artist, with its admirable mix of craft and movie love, has a chance of overwhelming the critical establishment, and while that's no guarantee of Oscar glory (remember The Social Network), it certainly could make for a frontrunner.  Awards like this will also help the picture be seen by a more mainstream audience, which in turn doesn't hurt with the Academy.

Best Director:  Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST  Ditto.

Best Actor:  Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL and THE TREE OF LIFE  Pitt (and Jessica Chastain below) benefit from the fact that critics groups base their awards on a year's body of work rather than for a single film.  Having 2 well-regarded pictures in one calendar year is a big boost.  Also, the fact that there's no tremendous favorite in this category could give Pitt the best chance of his career thus far for a victory.  (Which would probably be for Moneyball.)

Best Actress:  Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY This race has seemed to narrow quickly to Streep vs Michelle Williams (and possibly Viola Davis), and the first volley goes to The Great One.  Big loser here is Glenn Close, whose Albert Nobbs is currently under the radar and may stay there.

Best Supporting Actor:  Albert Brooks, DRIVE  That perfect combination of a talent that richly deserves reward for decades of superb work with a role that genuinely surprised everyone (and in which he was remarkable ).  Christopher Plummer in Beginners seems to be his main competition.

Best Supporting Actress:  Jessica Chastain, THE TREE OF LIFE, TAKE SHELTER and THE HELP  The It Girl of 2011, and this list of movies doesn't even include her excellent turns in The Debt, Texas Killing Fields or Coriolanus.  The Oscar question is whether so many fine performances will fracture her chances of actually winning.

Best Screenplay:  Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, MONEYBALL  There aren't writers in Hollywood more A-list than these two, and in Moneyball they successfully brought to the screen a piece of source material as unpromising as anything out there.

Best Foreign-Language Film:  A SEPARATION  Sony Classics isn't opening this Iranian drama until the very end of December, but it's been making the rounds of film festivals for months.

Best Cinematography:  Emmanuel Lubezki, THE TREE OF LIFE  Even people who gave up on the movie had to bow their heads at the spectacular look of the film. 

Best Nonfiction Film:  CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS  Werner Herzog is a figure beloved by critics, and Cave was a film where his fascinations melded beautifully with the subject matter.  Also impressive as one of the first documentaries to make truly effective use of 3D.

Best First Feature:  MARGIN CALL  Yay, NYFCC!  One of the year's very best pictures--first or otherwise--gets a shout-out that will hopefully keep it alive down the awards season trail.

Today, we return to SHOWBUZZDAILY's coverage of the Oscar race (see Part 1 here, with an introduction to those contenders best called the Field--these may not be the favorites, but even as longer shots they're still in the race.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount - Dec. 9)

Good Bet:  From Jason Reitman, whose Up In the Air probably should have won the last time around.  Although it hasn't officially been screened, people have been seeing it, and there's enormous buzz around the script and Charlize Theron's performance in the lead.

Bad Bet:  No one defines "backlash" these days better than screenwriter Diablo Cody post-Juno.  Reitman annoyed some of the industry with the treatment of the other credited screenwriter on Air.  The film could easily be relegated to the Best Actress category alone.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony - Dec. 21)

Good Bet:  Sony will be citing The Silence of the Lambs endlessly on this one--a violent bestseller that won it all.  The trailer looks sensational.  After Social Network, David Fincher is owed.

Bad Bet:  Silence was 20 years ago, and the Academy doesn't normally go for hard-R violence.  Spielberg had to wait almost 20 years for his Oscar, and Scorsese's wait was roughly 30; who told Fincher he was on the express bus?

THE TREE OF LIFE (Fox Searchlight - Released May 27)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  5/1
Bookie odds to win:  14/1

Good Bet:  Terence Malick is as revered as any contemporary filmmaker, and quite a few people consider this a masterpiece.

Bad Bet:  A lot of other people it's bloated and overrated.  Malick doesn't do Oscar campaigns, and Brad Pitt will be pushing for Moneyball.  Searchlight will be spending the bulk of its efforts on The Descendants and Shame, which will be in the midst of their theatrical runs, rather than a film already on homevideo.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus - Dec. 9)

Good Bet:  A serious, smart thriller with a superb cast, based on one of the most acclaimed spy novels ever written.  Lots of critical acclaim when it screened in Venice.

Bad Bet:  Everyone (well, everyone in the Academy) remembers Alec Guinness in the BBC miniseries, and that's a tough comparison.  Will Oscar voters be able to follow the story?

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein - Dec. 16)

Good Bet:  Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher.  And enough time has gone by since her last win that she's owed, damn it.

Bad Bet:  From the director of Mamma Mia!  And why didn't Harvey Weinstein show it at any of the fall film festivals?  Harvey Watch says that he's favoring The Artist and My Week With Marilyn.

MONEYBALL (Sony - Released Sept. 23)

Good Bet:  95% approval on Rotten Tomatoes, $54M in the bank (and still counting) and all for a movie no one thought could even be made.  Brad Pitt in a career-best performance. 

Bad Bet: Comparisons to The Social Network are unfair, but... it's not The Social Network.  It'll be out of the zeitgeist by the time all the shiny new holiday season movies arrive.  Is Pitt's performance showy enough to garner awards?

CARNAGE (Sony Classics - Dec. 16)

Good Bet:  Tony Award winning play, all-star cast, Oscar-winning director.

Bad Bet:  Polanski isn't winning a second Oscar, at least not for an 81-minute filmed play.  Film festival reviews have been mixed so far.

HUGO (Paramount - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  Scorsese.  In 3D, no less!  And so classy that the New York Film Festival showed it as a surprise work-in-progress for the first time ever.  (Shhh... pay no attention to the family movie ad campaign, it's really about film preservation.)

Bad Bet:  Scorsese or not, it's a kids movie, and opening against heavy competition over Thanksgiving (The Muppets and Arthur Christmas on the family side; The Artist, A Dangerous Method and My Week With Marilyn on the serious end).  It may get squeezed out.

A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  A supremely classy historical story (Freud and Jung), very fine actors in Michael Fassbinder, Viggo Mortensen and Keira Knightley, and David Cronenberg is the kind of director who no one ever realizes was owed an Oscar until he has one.  Sony Pictures Classics knows how to sell a picture like this better than anyone,

Bad Bet:  Film festival verdict was that it's intelligent and well-acted all right, but also dry and talky.

TOMORROW:  The Also Eligible.