Movie Box Review

As expected, Game 6 of the World Series went up substantially in the official nationals to a 6.5 Adult 18-49 rating.  Not quite the 6.9 forecast but close.  The news was also good for The Big Bang Theory (4.6), The Office (2.9), Person of Interest (2.7) and Vampire Diaries (1.5), all adjusted up a tenth of a point.  But Nielsen also taketh away: Whitney (2.0), Prime Suspect (1.1) and Secret Circle (0.9) were adjusted down a tenth.  The news was particularly tough on NBC at 8 pm, with Community falling to fifth place behind The CW's Vampire Diaries.  And Prime Suspect, already a brutal story with Prime Suspect Week doing nothing for the struggling drama, just looks worse.

           NOVEMBER SWEEP SCORECARD
          2011 vs 2010 Day 1 of 28

                 2011    2010
          FOX     6.5     4.1     +59%
          CBS     3.1     3.4     -10%
          ABC     2.8     2.9     - 3%
          NBC     1.7     2.4     -28% 

Check back Saturday morning to see how high Game 7 was able to go on lightly viewed Friday night.  We'll also cover the Grimm premiere and update the sweep-to-date standings.

The November Sweep began last night, and FOX is off to a rousing start.  One night into the 28-night "sweep" period (in which each of the 210 TV markets are measured demographically in addition to the normal national ratings), FOX is #1 with a 5.8 fast national 18-49 rating, up 41% over the same night last year (which featured Game 2 of the World Series between San Francisco and Texas).  CBS is down 12% the first night of the sweep, ABC is down a nominal 3% and NBC is off a steep 25%.

           NOVEMBER SWEEP SCORECARD
          2011 vs 2010 Day 1 of 28

                 2011    2010
          FOX     5.8     4.1     +41%
          CBS     3.0     3.4     -12%
          ABC     2.8     2.9     - 3%
          NBC     1.8     2.4     -25% 

UPDATED with results from all networks below. 



Last night was all about Game 6 of The World Series, a nail-biting 10-9 victory for the St Louis Cardinals in 11 innings.  The game ended at 12:40 am ET.  The Texas Rangers were poised to win at multiple points in the game (twice St Louis was down to its final strike), but the Cardinals kept coming back with timely home runs and extra-base hits.  FOX averaged a 5.8 Adult 18-49 rating in prime time from 8-11 pm (starting at a 4.1 from 8:00-8:30 and building to a 6.6 from 10:30-11:00 pm, the latest ratings available at this time).  The full program rating from 8-12:40 will be available later today, but it will surely skyrocket.  The metered market household ratings indicate that viewers stayed up late to see the end of the game (well into the late night daypart in most of the country), and the official ratings will correctly account for the Western time zones (which are undercounted in the fast nationals).  We are guessing the final rating for the full duration of Game 6 will approach a 7 demo rating, which would put the game close to recent Game 6 numbers.

World Series Game 6 is scheduled to start at 8 pm ET tonight on FOX in St Louis, but the weather might be an issue.  The National Weather Service is predicting an 80% chance of rain tonight there with winds gusting to 22 mph and a low of 44F.  It all depends how heavy the rain is tonight, but MLB -- at FOX's urging, for certain -- will most likely make every effort to play.


If Game 6 needs to be played Thursday, the forecast calls for a clear night with a low around 39F.  Worst case for FOX would be a Game 7 played on Friday night, severely limiting the ratings potential because fewer viewers outside of St Louis and Dallas would stay home to watch.

ABC premiered Once Upon a Time last night with great success, a 3.9 Adult 18-49 rating, building impressively off a 1.5 rating lead-in from America's Funniest Home Videos.  Viewers liked what they saw in the pilot as audience built throughout the show: 8:00-8:30 (3.8 rating) and 8:30-9:00 (4.0).  The fairy tale-dual universe drama was also the highest rated entertainment show on the night, followed by Desperate Housewives (3.0) and Amazing Race (2.7).  We'll see if the audience sticks with this series over the next few weeks, but give ABC credit for opening the show.

• World Series  Game1 Game2 Game3 Game4
• 18-49 Rating   Wed   Thu   Sat   Sun
• 2007 BOS-COL   5.8   5.3   4.3   7.1
• 2008 PHI-TAM   4.8   4.0   3.2   5.1
• 2009 NYY-PHI   6.3   5.8   4.7   7.8
• 2010 SFG-TEX   4.7   4.0   2.9   4.3
• 2011 TEX-STL   4.2   4.0   3.5*  4.4*  *est. official rating

The fast nationals for Wednesday give Game 1 of the World Series a 3.9 Adult 18-49 rating (yet to be time zone adjusted).  Last night we predicted a 3.8 in the fast nationals and a 4.1 in the official nationals.  This number keeps it from being the worst Game 1 rating in history...just the second worst. 

The second lowest-rated Game 1 in MLB history will be enough to give FOX a win on the night, and the performance is on par with an X Factor original episode.  At least, FOX isn't forced into the unenviable position of replacing a higher-rated show for the Fall Classic.

ABC's Modern Family takes the crown as the highest rated show of the night (a 5.6 in the fast nationals and probably a 5.7 in the official ratings later today).  The other comedies were near their recent levels (The Middle 2.9, Suburgatory 3.1, Happy Endings 3.0), while Revenge dropped back down to a 2.5 (from a 2.7 last week).  Given the heavy promotional support Revenge continues to receive, this is probably a bitter pill for ABC to swallow.  For the night, ABC averaged a 3.3 rating.

CBS also averaged a 3.3 Wednesday, up one tenth from last week.  Survivor (3.3) and Criminal Minds (3.9) were each up one tenth, while CSI (2.6) was flat.

NBC averaged a 1.7 for the night, the same rating the network has turned in for three weeks.  Up All Night's birth episode did not pop a number (2.1), and the Whitney repeat (1.2) drifted down two tenths to Harry's Law reliable rating (Jason Alexander guest starring couldn't push Harry's above that 1.2 rating).  Another promo note, the spot at the end of Up All Night announcing that Whitney was coming up said "Whitney airs after The Office -- next on NBC".  Clearly a recycled spot, the voiceover wasn't changed for Wednesday night.  The error certainly didn't cause viewers to flee at 8:30, but it is one of those details that should be done correctly on network television. 

Pity the poor Former National Pastime.  In the quarter century that Nielsen has used the PeopleMeter to measure demographic ratings, viewership of the World Series has dropped by more than half in the key advertising sales demographic.  From 1987 (the first year demographic ratings came from electronic meters and remote controls rather than a paper diary) through 1993 (the last baseball season before the disastrous strike), Game 1 of the World Series averaged a 10.1 Adult 18-49 rating.  In the ten years after the strike (1995-2004), Game 1 averaged a still respectable 7.0 rating.  But since 2005 (as players scored fewer runs and hit far fewer home runs without the benefits of steroids), the average Game 1 has turned in a 5.0 rating (far below what a regular season NFL game generates).


Before the Strike that killed the 1994 postseason, it looked like the World Series was relatively bullet-proof.  No match-up from 1987-1993 features the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox (remember how lean those years were for those franchises?).  The period was riddled with regional pairings (Minnesota-St Louis, LA-Oakland, even two teams from the same market, San Francisco-Oakland).  Two of the Series even featured a Canadian team.  Even worse, CBS broadcast four Series (1990-1993) with coverage as lame as their Olympic efforts.  And yet the lowest Game 1 in this period was an 8.5 rating. 

From 1995-2004, the sport embarked on a long downward slide.   Game 1 ratings in that decade ranged from a high of 9.3 in 1996 (NY Yankees-Atlanta) to a low of 5.0 in 2002 (Anaheim-San Francisco).  It might be tempting to assume that 2002 was ignored because it was too regional, too California and lacking a marquee Northeast team.  But note that 2001 (Yankees-Arizona) was not much better: a 5.3 rating.  If we look at Game 1 ratings in this period featuring the Yankees or the Red Sox versus Game 1 ratings for Series without these iconic teams, there is only a slight advantage to having New York or Boston involved: a 7.2 average rating with New York or Boston and a 6.8 rating without.

However, in recent years the presence of Boston or New York has saved the sport from utter shame.  Since 2005, Game 1 of a Yankees or Red Sox Series has averaged a 6.1 rating (not bad in the DVR era), while Game 1 match-ups without either team have averaged all the way down to a 4.4 rating.   

The nadir for Game 1 came in 2006 when the St Louis Cardinals opened against the Detroit Tigers and only mustered a 3.6 rating.  This was also the last time Game 1 aired on a Saturday night, the least viewed of the week.  Since 2007, the new format places Game 1 on Wednesday (weather permitting, of course).  Until the fast nationals Thursday morning give us our first indication of how this year's Game 1 rated (featuring the Texas Rangers at the St Louis Cardinals), take a look at the table below for a complete historical view.  I am guessing this year's Game 1 will rate about a 4.1 in the official nationals and around a 3.8 in the fast nationals, just avoiding the "worst ever" title.