THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "GCB"
The Sked: MARCH MADNESS -- Ratings Outlook
March Madness, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, kicks off this week on CBS and a trio of cable networks (TNT, TBS and TruTV) with University of Kentucky, Michigan State, Syracuse and University of North Carolina the #1 seeds in the four regions. The ratings impact in prime time is minimal the first week but builds steadily in the second and third weeks as CBS becomes the exclusive broadcaster.
CBS coverage Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights should average less than a 2 rating with Adults 18-49 this week, similar to last year's format when CBS and the three cable partners split the games with each contest running nationally against the others. Until 2010, CBS covered the entire tournament and regionalized the games, and if a game was unusually lopsided that section of the country got switched to a more exciting contest. CBS had higher ratings in the first week in the old format broadcasting solo, but the additional cable partners allow them to afford the entire tournament and keep the crown jewel, the championship game, on over-the-air television.
Next week on Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights CBS should bounce around a 3 rating, while the real value of March Madness is cashed in when the calendar turns to April with a 7 rating or more on Monday, April 2. Now go fill out your bracket.
NCAA Basketball Tournament
Primetime Adult 18-49 Rating (CBS)
2012 2011 2010 2009
Rounds 1 & 2
Thu 3.15 1.7 3.5 3.6
Fri 3.16 1.5 3.4 3.0
Sat 3.17 1.5 3.6 3.7
Sweet 16 &
Elite 8
Thu 3.22 2.5 3.9 3.6
Fri 3.23 2.7 3.4 3.6
Sat 3.24 3.5 4.0 3.8
Final Four
Sat 3.31 5.1 4.8 5.0
Mon 4.02 7.1 8.2 6.3
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THE SKED @ PALEYFEST 2012: "Revenge"
THE SKED: SNL Ratings - Jonah's Not Lindsay
SHOWBUZZDAILY @ PALEYFEST 2012: "The Vampire Diaries"
THE SHOWBUZZDAILY REVIEW: SNL With Jonah Hill
THE SKED'S FRIDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
CBS: The network experimented with a new episode of THE MENTALIST at 9PM, and while the 2.0 rating was 20% below the show's Thursday season low, Friday offers fewer available eyeballs, so a decline was to be expected. Mentalist nevertheless considerably outrated what CSI NY and A Gifted Man have been doing at 9PM, easily winning its timeslot, pushing Grimm near a series low, and helping BLUE BLOODS inch up to a 1.8. And that wasn't even CBS' best news of the night: in the 4-way unscripted battle at 8PM, UNDERCOVER BOSS was the winner by far with a 2.2, the highest rated broadcast on any network last night.The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- through March 8
The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between March 4 and March 8, with about 10 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period. (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)
ABC. Missing has become the top promotional priority for ABC over the past week, now running at about 38 seconds per hour. GCB receded to a still substantial 33 seconds per hour, with promos trumpeting its premiere viewership Sunday. Some promos mentioned "11 million viewers fell in love", while others said "18 million viewers watched". The first number refers to the average audience in any given minute, and the second measures who many people saw at least a few minutes of the show (the "total audience"). Rather than throwing two numbers around, why not pick one and stick with it? Don't Trust the Bitch in Apt 23 and Scandal are up from previous weeks, now at 18 and 15 seconds, respectively.
NBC. Fashion Star increased to 37 seconds per hour over the past week, clearly the #1 promo priority for the struggling network. Awake has been dialed back to 24 seconds per hour, promoting the second episode and referencing the show's premiere performance. Rather than saying a number, NBC said "millions were thrilled".
CBS. Person of Interest increased again this past week to 28 seconds per hour. The episode (featuring a cute baby and a "two men and a baby" theme in the promos) was one of the few original episodes on CBS among a sea of repeats, and the on-air promotion paid off as Person of Interest edged past its previous season high. Big Bang Theory, also an original episode, moved into the top priority list, up to 11 seconds per hour after bumping around the 5-6 second range in recent weeks. .
FOX. Bob's Burgers, returning Sunday, moved up to 22 seconds per hour -- as heavy a commitment as FOX has given recently. .
PROMO WATCH
Once Upon a Time 11
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THE SKED THURSDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
NBC: A 20% drop from a series premiere isn't ordinarily anything shocking or particularly worrisome. But when you start with a 2.0 the way AWAKE did, that leaves you with a 1.6 in Week 2, and that makes Week 3, when the show will be facing fresh competition on both CBS and ABC for the first time, look like an oncoming train. (The show continues to be problematic creatively, too: see our Pilot + 1 Review.) Earlier in the evening, 30 ROCK had its last 8PM airing of the season (COMMUNITY arrives next week) and remained 0.1 above its season low with 1.4, while PARKS & RECREATION was comparatively robust at 1.9. THE OFFICE and UP ALL NIGHT (with what may have been its most insufferable episode yet--if the show would just own up to the contempt it feels for almost all human beings, it might be a lot better) were up 0.1 from last week.The Sked: THURSDAY RATINGS March 8
Back to a first place tie on Thursday between CBS (with mostly original episodes this week) and FOX (with Idol down to a one-hour edition) followed by The Finder. You will notice we do not have year-to-year comparisons for this night. Two very helpful readers identified a problem with recent year-ago comparisons, and it is clear the past several days were comparing incorrect data. (Although the rest of the data for the 2010-11 season appears correct, we are making sure the error is isolated and then will resume the comparisons when the entire year is cleaned up.)
Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Thursday FOX NBC CBS ABC
03.08.2012 3.6 1.8 3.6 1.3 THIS WEEK
03.01.2012 5.4 1.9 2.1 1.1 LAST WEEK
03.10.2011 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAST YEAR
NBC aired the second episode of Awake at 10 pm, which declined from a 2.0 Adult 18-49 last week in the official nationals to a 1.6 last night in the preliminaries. This second-week decline is in line with the ShowBuzzDaily forecast of a three-tenths of a rating point drop. Awake declined slightly at 10:30 pm last night (1.6 from 10:00-10:30 and 1.5 from 10:30-11:00), although a one-tenth drop for a 10 pm drama is fairly typical. The audience seems to be locking into the very weak 1.5/1.6 range. The comedies from 8:30-10:00 were up a tenth or two from last week (with ABC in repeats) but none of that extra audience flowed to Awake.
NBC Thu High Low 2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
Community 1.8 1.4
30 Rock 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4*
Parks & Rec 2.1 1.7 1.7 -- 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9*
The Office 3.9 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.6*
Whitney 3.3 1.9
Up All Night 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7*
Awake 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.6*
Prime Suspect 1.8 0.8
The Firm 1.0 0.8 0.8 -- -- --
Season Past Six Weeks
FOX Thu High Low 2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
American Idol 5.7 4.5 5.5 5.8 5.1 4.5 5.4 4.8*
Bones 3.3 2.4
The Finder 2.8 1.7 2.4 2.2 -- 2.0 -- 2.3*
CBS returned with original episodes Thursday in all time periods except 8:30, where a repeat Big Bang Theory (4.0) vastly improved upon recent Rob original episodes. Person of Interest is on track for a season high (the "two men and baby" theme in the fairly heavy promotion for the episode certainly helped), and Mentalist was up from recent weeks.
Season Past Six Weeks
CBS Thu High Low 2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
Rules Engagment 3.7 2.7
Rob 4.1 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.6 --
Person Interest 3.3 2.6 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.1 1.8R 3.4*
Mentalist 3.0 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.6 1.7R 2.8*
ABC took a distant fourth place, again with a repeat line-up this week. Instead of a Private Practice repeat at 10 pm, a repeat of the GCB pilot averaged a 1.3 rating, not too far behind the Awake original on NBC.
ABC Thu High Low 2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
Wipeout 2.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1R 1.3R
Grey's Anatomy 4.5 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.2 3.1 1.1R 1.1R
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THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "Awake"
THE SKED'S WEDNESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
ABC: Serialized dramas repeat notoriously badly, so the network had the clever idea of filling in the spring schedule gap with a "news" show about true-life crimes that presumably are similar to those in the show, albeit without Emily Van Camp or Madeleine Stowe. The resulting REVENGE FOR REAL was probably about where ABC expected, a full ratings point down from real Revenge episodes, but a little higher than repeats have been scoring. The network tried to give For Real a lead-in with a new episode of HAPPY ENDINGS, but that ended up unnecessarily burning off a fresh (and funny, particularly for John Hughes fans) Happy episode, which hit a season low and didn't do any better coming out of a MODERN FAMILY repeat than a Happy rerun would have done. The Sked: WEDNESDAY RATINGS March 7
American Idol is still way down from last year, but last night's episode ticked from the past few weeks. But The Voice also had a good week -- so Idol remains behind the pace of the upstart singing show. NBC shuffled Wednesday again, giving Rock Center yet another time period. But the news magazine and NBC Wednesday in general remain stuck in the mud. Luckily few viewers were there to see it last night, but in the credit window of SVU a dated 30-second promo for Celebrity Apprentice ran, announcing the show was "coming February 19". Full on-air promo details in our next Promo Watch update on Friday.
Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Wednesday FOX CBS ABC NBC
03.07.2012 5.6 2.2 1.7 1.2 THIS WEEK
02.29.2012 5.0 2.9 2.9 1.2 LAST WEEK
03.09.2011 9.1 2.9 1.9 1.2 LAST YEAR
FOX's American Idol popped back up this week to a 5.6 preliminary 18-49 rating, its best Wednesday number since February 15 (although still lagging behind this week's 6.2 for The Voice). (In the official nationals Idol will probably go up up to a 5.7, which would be a 37% drop from last year's episode -- a tad better than last week's 43% decline but still stunning.) Idol built steadily throughout the show: 5.0... 5.6... 5.9... 6.0 by half hour. Last year on this night, American Idol aired for two hours (9.1), growing by each half hour: 8.1, 9.3, 9.1 and 9.8.
Season Last Six Weeks
FOX Wed High Low 2.01 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 3.07
American Idol7.4 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.1 5.0 5.6*
Mobbed 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.0 --
Touch 3.9 3.9 --
X Factor 4.4 2.5
Hate Teenage 2.8 1.8
With repeats against it on ABC, Survivor ticked up three tenths to the highest rating of this cycle. Criminal Minds and CSI were in repeats. Last year on this night: Survivor (3.8), Criminal Minds (1.9) and Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior (2.8).
CSI 3.3 2.5 1.5R 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.6 1.8R
ABC's comedies from 8:00-9:30, while Happy Endings (2.0) was an original episode that also rated like a repeat telecast. At 10 pm ABC News provided Revenge for Real, real-life stories of crime in the Hamptons, which averaged a 1.4 rating -- better than a Revenge repeat but nothing extraordinary. Last year on this night: The Middle (1.4), The Middle (1.4), Modern Family (2.5), Mr Sunshine (2.4) and Off the Map (1.9).
ABC Wed High Low 2.01 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 3.07
The Middle 3.2 2.2 1.2R 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.6 1.5R
Suburgatory 3.4 2.3 1.2R 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.5R
Modern Fami 6.1 4.5 2.7R 5.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 2.4R
Happy Ending 3.5 2.4 1.9R 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.0*
Revenge 3.4 2.1 0.9R 2.5 2.4 -- 2.4 --
NBC changed things up a bit, giving Rock Center its third time period. Now at 10 pm, the struggling Brian WIlliams news magazine averaged a 1.0 rating (near the high-water mark for the young show but still incredibly weak). SVU repeats have been moved down to 9 pm while Rock Center gets its trial run at 10, and the crime drama also scored a 1.0 rating, below the mid-1 rating SVU repeats at 10 have scored. Last year on this night: Minute to Win It (1.0), Law & Order SVU (0.9) and Law & Order SVU (1.5).
Season Last Six Weeks
NBC Wed High Low 2.01 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 3.07
Whitney 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6*
Chelsea 2.3 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5*
Rock Center 1.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0*
L&O SVU 2.4 1.6 1.6R 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.0R
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The Sked: Declining Network Ratings -- How Bad Are They?
For the past several weeks, "season low" and "down sharply from last year" have been repeated phrases in our daily ratings posts, mostly for broadcast network programs but also for cable programs, as well. What's going on here? After all, this season started in a very promising fashion with the combined audience for the four major broadcast networks even with the prior season, an almost impossible feat given the the ever increasing media fragmentation in today's world.
To take a broad view, we looked at the season in three distinct parts, summarized in the table below. In the first part of the television season (the first 11 weeks from September 19-December 4), ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX combined for a 10.4 Adult 18-49 rating in prime time, exactly the same rating as the comparable period in 2010. Then from December through most of January, the broadcast networks were pacing 4% behind the 2010-11 season, a decline more in line with past decade or so. Nothing to worry about, most thought. But then in late January up until now, the decline in network TV viewing has really picked up steam, pushing a double-digit rate.
4-Network (ABC CBS NBC FOX)
Prime Time Adult 18-49 Combined Rating
2011-12 2010-11 % chg
Sep 19-Dec 4 10.4 10.4 0%
Dec 5-Jan 22 9.0 9.4 -4%
Jan 23-Mar 4 10.2 11.1 -9%
To get an idea of the pace of change, the chart below shows the yearly decline in network television viewing for each week of the season to date. In the first part of the season, there were a few up weeks and a few down weeks but the magnitude of the differences generally were quite small (mostly under 5%). More recently, however, the weekly swings have become much more pronounced: more in the 10% or even 15%+ range and predominantly on the negative side.
Singing Competition: The Changing of the Guard. Clearly, much of the accelerating decline in the past few months is related to the collapse of FOX's American Idol and the ascendance of NBC's The Voice. The biggest nightly declines for network TV since late January have come on Idol's nights (Tuesday and Wednesday) and the only significant up night is Monday, home of The Voice. Many viewers who used to watch three to four hours per week of American Idol now can get their singing fix with two hours of The Voice, and the rest of the time spent formerly watching Idol apparently as not been shifted to other network programs. For from it. As we have seen recently, many marquee programs like Modern Family, Glee and The Office have suffered serious audience erosion over the course of the season and are stuck at season lows, far behind last season's pace.
Nightly Trend (This Year vs Last Year)
4-Network (ABC CBS NBC FOX)
% Change Adult 18-49 Prime Time Rating
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN Week
Sep 19-Dec 4 -2% 0% +9% +2% +19% +8% -5% 0%
Dec 5-Jan 22 +3% -16% +1% +2% -5% -11% -1% -4%
Jan 23-Mar 4 +12% -8% -19% -19% 0% -17% -1% -9%
Are viewers abandoning television? We know that time spent watching live television remains remarkably consistent over the years, based on Nielsen analysis. In fact, as DVR usage has risen, the total amount of time spent in front of a television has actually increased in the past five years. Young adults (18-34) now spend almost 33 hours per week in front of the TV, up slightly from five years ago. Although these young adults watch an hour less of live TV per week since 2007, DVR playback has increased well over an hour. (Viewing video online was not a part of this particular study, but separate Nielsen studies have shown time spent streaming is similar to the DVR playback levels and tends to be additive rather cannibalistic for TV viewing.) Middle-aged adults (35-54) watch over 37 hours per week, with about half an hour less live TV but almost two hours more DVR playback per week. And older adults (55+) now watch over 46 hours per week, with an hour more live TV and over an hour and half more DVR playback.
The DVR (and videogames for young adults) have only increased America's love affair with television. And the vast majority of time spent with television is still devoted to watching TV live -- even with younger viewers. We have not seen an update of this study into 2012, but given the long-term trends it is hard to imagine a sudden abandonment of the medium anywhere near the recent declines in broadcast prime time viewing.
Time Spent with Television per Week
Total Day (hours:minutes)
Adults 18-34 Adults 35-54 Adults 55+
2007 2011 2007 2011 2007 2011
Total TV 32:39 32:52 36:19 37:19 43:57 46:19
Live TV 27:02 26:00 32:32 32:08 41:50 42:53
DVR 1:34 2:46 1:36 3:22 0:50 2:30
Videogame 1:22 2:30 0:17 0:38 ---- ----
note: DVD and VHS playback not shown.
So the remarkable long-term durability of the television medium really puts the recent declines in broadcast network viewing in perspective. If the 9% broadcast decline since late January turns into the more recent 10-15% declines, an already stressed business model starts to become extremely frayed. And, oh yeah. Daylight Saving Time hits Sunday, as the longer days add yet another strong headwind for network ratings, particularly in the 8:00 pm hour of prime time. The season could get even bumpier for the broadcasters quite soon.
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THE SKED: "The Voice" Is Raised To Twice Weekly
THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
The Sked: TUESDAY RATINGS March 6
Super Tuesday was anything but for the broadcast networks last night. Each broadcast network was down significantly from the same night last year (worst hit was FOX at 8 pm -- a 5.9 rating for a Glee original episode was replaced by two original comedy episodes that rated a 2.1 and 1.6). Worse, the Super Tuesday election disrupted network schedules (local coverage in some markets pre-empted all or part of programs, while network coverage was inserted into entertainment programs with the time coming directly out of on-air promotion time). So fewer people were watching and it was even more difficult to reach those viewers than normal with promos for the rest of the week. This is yet another night of season lows and sizable declines from last season, a trend that has really picked up since the first of the year. Come back later today when we will look at the prime time season so far, highlighting the accelerating yearly declines.
Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Tuesday FOX CBS NBC ABC
03.06.2012 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 THIS WEEK
02.28.2012 5.1 2.8 2.0 1.6 LAST WEEK
03.08.2011 4.2 2.1 2.6 1.6 LAST YEAR
With Glee taking a break, FOX shifted to a four-comedy Tuesday, moving Raising Hope to 8:00, returning I Hate My Teenager Daughter to 8:30, and bringing Breaking In back in the 9:30 time period. No one really noticed. New Girl continues to struggle at its season low (3.0), although it is now FOX's highest-rated show of the night. The rest of the comedies struggled at 2 rating or below. Last year on this night, FOX aired Glee (5.9) followed by Raising Hope (3.2) and Traffic Light (1.8).
I Hate My T 1.6 1.6 1.6*
New Girl 4.8 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 -- 3.0*
CBS moved into repeat mode and had a Tuesday fairly similar to its last repeat burst in January. Last year CBS averaged a 2.1 on the comparable night of repeats: NCIS (2.4), NCIS Los Angeles (2.7) and Good Wife (1.3).
CBS Tues High Low 1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21 2.28 3.06
Unforgettble 2.9 1.9 1.4R 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4R
ABC aired a half repeat (Last Man Standing and Body of Proof) and half original schedule (Cougar Town and The River), but the entire night looked like a see of repeats given the ratings. Last year on this night: No Ordinary Family (1.1), V (2.3) and Detroit 187 (1.5).
Cougar Town 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4*
Work It 2.0 1.5
Dancing Res 4.1 2.6
Celeb Wife Swap 2.1 1.9 1.9
The River 2.4 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5*
Body of Proof 2.2 1.2 1.0R -- 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.9R
Biggest Loser tied a season low, while an NBC News Decision 2012 special (1.0) replaced a Parenthood repeat and actually slightly improved what the family drama would have done. Last year on this night: Biggest Loser (3.3) from 8-10 pm and a Parenthood repeat (1.2).
NBC Tues High Low 1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21 2.28 3.06
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