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Showing posts with label TV ratings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TV ratings. Show all posts

The Sked: MARCH MADNESS -- Ratings Outlook

March Madness, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, kicks off this week on CBS and a trio of cable networks (TNT, TBS and TruTV) with University of Kentucky, Michigan State, Syracuse and University of North Carolina the #1 seeds in the four regions.  The ratings impact in prime time is minimal the first week but builds steadily in the second and third weeks as CBS becomes the exclusive broadcaster. 

CBS coverage Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights should average less than a 2 rating with Adults 18-49 this week, similar to last year's format when CBS and the three cable partners split the games with each contest running nationally against the others.  Until 2010, CBS covered the entire tournament and regionalized the games, and if a game was unusually lopsided that section of the country got switched to a more exciting contest.  CBS had higher ratings in the first week in the old format broadcasting solo, but the additional cable partners allow them to afford the entire tournament and keep the crown jewel, the championship game, on over-the-air television.



Next week on Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights CBS should bounce around a 3 rating, while the real value of March Madness is cashed in when the calendar turns to April with a 7 rating or more on Monday, April 2.  Now go fill out your bracket.
    

          NCAA Basketball Tournament  
      Primetime Adult 18-49 Rating (CBS)

               2012    2011    2010    2009
Rounds 1 & 2
   Thu 3.15             1.7     3.5     3.6
   Fri 3.16             1.5     3.4     3.0
   Sat 3.17             1.5     3.6     3.7
Sweet 16 &
 Elite 8
   Thu 3.22             2.5     3.9     3.6
   Fri 3.23             2.7     3.4     3.6
   Sat 3.24             3.5     4.0     3.8
Final Four
   Sat 3.31             5.1     4.8     5.0
   Mon 4.02             7.1     8.2     6.3


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THE SKED: SNL Ratings - Jonah's Not Lindsay






Without the train-wreck possibilities of the previous week's Lindsay Lohan event, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE's ratings last night were down about 20%.  That's a bit below the season average, suggesting Hill, despite his breakout Moneyball success, still isn't a household name, but the 2.6 in 18-49s was still more than double the rating for any show airing in primetime on Saturday night, so no worries.


SNL now takes a 4-week break, returning on April 7 with Sofia Vergera.  It'll be interesting to see how she fares, as she tries to broaden her appeal beyond Modern Family and soda commercials.

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THE SKED'S FRIDAY NETWORK SCORECARD






A preview of next season's schedule?

CBS:  The network experimented with a new episode of THE MENTALIST at 9PM, and while the 2.0 rating was 20% below the show's Thursday season low, Friday offers fewer available eyeballs, so a decline was to be expected.  Mentalist nevertheless considerably outrated what CSI NY and A Gifted Man have been doing at 9PM, easily winning its timeslot, pushing Grimm near a series low, and helping BLUE BLOODS inch up to a 1.8.   And that wasn't even CBS' best news of the night:  in the 4-way unscripted battle at 8PM, UNDERCOVER BOSS was the winner by far with a 2.2, the highest rated broadcast on any network last night.


NBC:  Against Mentalist, GRIMM's 1.5 was 0.1 above its series low.  WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE? was a weak 3rd place at 8PM with 1.0 (tying a repeat on FOX), but DATELINE, while behind Blue Bloods, nosed out ABC for 2d place at 10PM.

ABC:  SHARK TANK managed 2d place at 8PM (although a big 0.7 behind CBS), but PRIMETIME and 20/20 fell to third the rest of the evening. 

FOX:  A repeat KITCHEN NIGHTMARES tied for 3d in both of its hours.  

CW:  Repeats were at a typical (for CW repeats) 0.3-0.4.

Tonight continues to be something of a bonanza for Saturday original programming (as long as quality doesn't come into play):  THE FIRM on NBC, Q'VIVA! THE CHOSEN on FOX, and a 20/20 invitingly titled My Extreme Affliction.  Yum!  Then tomorrow, all the networks are new (with a return of Dylan Baker's Hannibal Lecter-ish character on THE GOOD WIFE), with the main "events" being HARRY'S LAW return to the NBC schedule at 8PM and the 2d episode test for ABC's GCB at 10PM.


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THE SKED THURSDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





AWAKE is getting sleepy.

NBC:  A 20% drop from a series premiere isn't ordinarily anything shocking or particularly worrisome.  But when you start with a 2.0 the way AWAKE did, that leaves you with a 1.6 in Week 2, and that makes Week 3, when the show will be facing fresh competition on both CBS and ABC for the first time, look like an oncoming train.  (The show continues to be problematic creatively, too:  see our Pilot + 1 Review.)  Earlier in the evening, 30 ROCK had its last 8PM airing of the season (COMMUNITY arrives next week) and remained 0.1 above its season low with 1.4, while PARKS & RECREATION was comparatively robust at 1.9.  THE OFFICE and UP ALL NIGHT (with what may have been its most insufferable episode yet--if the show would just own up to the contempt it feels for almost all human beings, it might be a lot better) were up 0.1 from last week.


CBS:  BIG BANG THEORY continued to dominate Idol at 8PM, and a repeat Big Bang provided strong competition for FOX at 8:30PM, holding on impressively to almost 80% of the new episode's audience.  That (along with the weak competition on ABC and FOX) pushed PERSON OF INTEREST to a new series high of 3.4, which in turn gave THE MENTALIST its best number in a month.

FOX:  AMERICAN IDOL came awfully close to losing the full 8-9PM hour (4.8 vs 4.6), continuing its diminished ways.  THE FINDER aired its last Thursday episode before being burned off on moving to Fridays, with a 2.3 that was last place among the original shows in its hour.

ABC:  Repeats for the evening, putting it in last place (other than CW) in every hour.

CW:  Also in repeat mode, with a rerun SUPERNATURAL substituted for THE SECRET CIRCLE to little effect.

Tonight's interesting move is CBS experimenting with a new Mentalist episode at 9PM.  Apart from the CBS shows and GRIMM, everything is unscripted or a repeat.

 

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The Sked: THURSDAY RATINGS March 8

Back to a first place tie on Thursday between CBS (with mostly original episodes this week) and FOX (with Idol down to a one-hour edition) followed by The Finder.  You will notice we do not have year-to-year comparisons for this night.  Two very helpful readers identified a problem with recent year-ago comparisons, and it is clear the past several days were comparing incorrect data.  (Although the rest of the data for the 2010-11 season appears correct, we are making sure the error is isolated and then will resume the comparisons when the entire year is cleaned up.)   

             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Thursday     FOX    NBC    CBS    ABC  
03.08.2012   3.6    1.8    3.6    1.3   THIS WEEK  
03.01.2012   5.4    1.9    2.1    1.1   LAST WEEK
03.10.2011   N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A   LAST YEAR  

NBC aired the second episode of Awake at 10 pm, which declined from a 2.0 Adult 18-49 last week in the official nationals to a 1.6 last night in the preliminaries.  This second-week decline is in line with the ShowBuzzDaily forecast of a three-tenths of a rating point drop.  Awake declined slightly at 10:30 pm last night (1.6 from 10:00-10:30 and 1.5 from 10:30-11:00), although a one-tenth drop for a 10 pm drama is fairly typical.  The audience seems to be locking into the very weak 1.5/1.6 range.  The comedies from 8:30-10:00 were up a tenth or two from last week (with ABC in repeats) but none of that extra audience flowed to Awake.




                Season        Past  Six  Weeks
NBC Thu        High Low  2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
Community      1.8  1.4   
30 Rock        1.8  1.3  1.3  1.6  1.5  1.5  1.4  1.4*
Parks & Rec    2.1  1.7  1.7  --   1.7  1.7  1.7  1.9*
The Office     3.9  2.3  2.8  2.5  2.3  2.6  2.5  2.6*
Whitney        3.3  1.9   
Up All Night   2.0  1.5  1.8  1.7  1.5  1.7  1.6  1.7*
Awake          1.9  1.9                      2.0  1.6*
Prime Suspect  1.8  0.8   
The Firm       1.0  0.8  0.8  --   --   --

American Idol dropped back down to below a 5 rating last night (erasing the short-term momentum we saw Wednesday night) and contracted to one hour from two hours last week.  The return of The Finder (its "winter finale") brought FOX's prime time average to a 3.6 rating this week, putting it in a tie for first with CBS.     


                Season        Past  Six  Weeks
FOX Thu        High Low  2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
X Factor       4.3  2.8 
American Idol  5.7  4.5  5.5  5.8  5.1  4.5  5.4  4.8*
Bones          3.3  2.4 
The Finder     2.8  1.7  2.4  2.2  --   2.0  --   2.3*

 


CBS returned with original episodes Thursday in all time periods except 8:30, where a repeat Big Bang Theory (4.0) vastly improved upon recent Rob original episodes.  Person of Interest is on track for a season high (the "two men and baby" theme in the fairly heavy promotion for the episode certainly helped), and Mentalist was up from recent weeks.


                 Season        Past  Six  Weeks  
CBS Thu         High Low  2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
Big Bang Theory 5.5  4.5  5.5  5.6  5.1  5.3  3.2R 5.1*
Rules Engagment 3.7  2.7 
Rob             4.1  2.9  3.3  3.3  3.2  2.9  2.6  --
Person Interest 3.3  2.6  3.3  3.3  2.8  3.1  1.8R 3.4*
Mentalist       3.0  2.5  2.9  3.0  2.7  2.6  1.7R 2.8*




ABC took a distant fourth place, again with a repeat line-up this week.  Instead of a Private Practice repeat at 10 pm, a repeat of the GCB pilot averaged a 1.3 rating, not too far behind the Awake original on NBC. 

                Season        Past  Six  Weeks
ABC Thu        High Low  2.02 2.09 2.16 2.23 3.01 3.08
Charlie's Ang  2.1  1.1 
Wipeout        2.7  1.5  1.8  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.1R 1.3R
Grey's Anatomy 4.5  3.1  3.6  4.0  3.2  3.1  1.1R 1.1R
Private Prac   2.8  2.1  2.3  2.2  2.6  2.1  --




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THE SKED'S WEDNESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





Viewers could tell that REVENGE wasn't FOR REAL.

ABC:  Serialized dramas repeat notoriously badly, so the network had the clever idea of filling in the spring schedule gap with a "news" show about true-life crimes that presumably are similar to those in the show, albeit without Emily Van Camp or Madeleine Stowe.  The resulting REVENGE FOR REAL was probably about where ABC expected, a full ratings point down from real Revenge episodes, but a little higher than repeats have been scoring.  The network tried to give For Real a lead-in with a new episode of HAPPY ENDINGS, but that ended up unnecessarily burning off a fresh (and funny, particularly for John Hughes fans) Happy episode, which hit a season low and didn't do any better coming out of a MODERN FAMILY repeat than a Happy rerun would have done. 


NBC:  Oh, NBC Wednesday, what's to be done with you?  Last night's new episodes of WHITNEY and ARE YOU THERE, CHELSEA could no more than tie the repeats on ABC of THE MIDDLE and SUBURGATORY that aired against them.  Then the network started its 2-week experiment of moving SVU reruns to 9PM (until BENT--very temporarily--takes the slot), which was a catastrophe that resulted in a previously unimaginable (even for a rerun) 1.0 rating for SVU, which just a couple of years ago was one of the most reliably repeating series on the schedule.  To the extent there's a bright side to any of this, the move of ROCK CENTER to 10PM supercharged that show all the way to a 1.0 rating, which was pathetically just 0.1 below its series high.  

FOX:  The season's song played again for AMERICAN IDOL, as it increased from last week (against mostly repeats on the other networks), but remained more than 35% below last year's numbers.

CBS:  SURVIVOR may also have benefited from the repeat competition and hit a cycle high.  At 10PM, a repeat CSI handily beat both of the new (albeit unscripted) shows on the other networks.

CW:  ONE TREE HILL continued to hold at a 0.7, while AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL, perhaps benefiting from the large number of viewers for Monday's repeat of its season premiere, ticked up 0.1 to 0.6 (still far below last season).

Tonight NBC will sleeplessly await the Week 2 ratings for AWAKE, which this week has to face a new THE MENTALIST.  FOX airs the last Thursday night episode of THE FINDER before it's shipped off to Fridays, and only ABC is in repeats.


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The Sked: WEDNESDAY RATINGS March 7

American Idol is still way down from last year, but last night's episode ticked from the past few weeks.  But The Voice also had a good week -- so Idol remains behind the pace of the upstart singing show.  NBC shuffled Wednesday again, giving Rock Center yet another time period.  But the news magazine and NBC Wednesday in general remain stuck in the mud.  Luckily few viewers were there to see it last night, but in the credit window of SVU a dated 30-second promo for Celebrity Apprentice ran, announcing the show was "coming February 19".  Full on-air promo details in our next Promo Watch update on Friday.


             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Wednesday    FOX    CBS    ABC    NBC
03.07.2012   5.6    2.2    1.7    1.2    THIS WEEK
02.29.2012   5.0    2.9    2.9    1.2    LAST WEEK
03.09.2011   9.1    2.9    1.9    1.2    LAST YEAR

FOX's American Idol popped back up this week to a 5.6 preliminary 18-49 rating, its best Wednesday number since February 15 (although still lagging behind this week's 6.2 for The Voice).  (In the official nationals Idol will probably go up up to a 5.7, which would be a 37% drop from last year's episode -- a tad better than last week's 43% decline but still stunning.)  Idol built steadily throughout the show: 5.0... 5.6... 5.9... 6.0 by half hour.  Last year on this night, American Idol aired for two hours (9.1), growing by each half hour: 8.1, 9.3, 9.1 and 9.8.          


              Season        Last  Six  Weeks
FOX Wed      High Low  2.01 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 3.07

American Idol7.4  5.0  6.0  6.1  6.1  5.1  5.0  5.6*
Mobbed       3.0  2.8  2.8  3.0  --
Touch        3.9  3.9  --
X Factor     4.4  2.5   
Hate Teenage 2.8  1.8 

With repeats against it on ABC, Survivor ticked up three tenths to the highest rating of this cycle.  Criminal Minds and CSI were in repeats.  Last year on this night: Survivor (3.8), Criminal Minds (1.9) and Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior (2.8).  

              Season        Last  Six  Weeks 
CBS Wed      High Low  2.01 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 3.07
Survivor     3.6  2.8  --   --   3.1  2.8  2.9  3.2*
Criminal Min 4.1  3.1  2.1R 3.3  3.1  3.1  3.1  1.6R
CSI          3.3  2.5  1.5R 2.5  2.6  2.9  2.6  1.8R

ABC's comedies from 8:00-9:30, while Happy Endings (2.0) was an original episode that also rated like a repeat telecast.  At 10 pm ABC News provided Revenge for Real, real-life stories of crime in the Hamptons, which averaged a 1.4 rating -- better than a Revenge repeat but nothing extraordinary.  Last year on this night: The Middle (1.4), The Middle (1.4), Modern Family (2.5), Mr Sunshine (2.4) and Off the Map (1.9).   


              Season        Last  Six  Weeks 
ABC Wed      High Low  2.01 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 3.07

The Middle   3.2  2.2  1.2R 2.6  2.4  2.2  2.6  1.5R
Suburgatory  3.4  2.3  1.2R 2.6  2.4  2.3  2.3  1.5R
Modern Fami  6.1  4.5  2.7R 5.5  4.7  4.8  4.8  2.4R
Happy Ending 3.5  2.4  1.9R 2.9  2.4  2.4  2.7  2.0*
Revenge      3.4  2.1  0.9R 2.5  2.4  --   2.4  --





NBC changed things up a bit, giving Rock Center its third time period.  Now at 10 pm, the struggling Brian WIlliams news magazine averaged a 1.0 rating (near the high-water mark for the young show but still incredibly weak).  SVU repeats have been moved down to 9 pm while Rock Center gets its trial run at 10, and the crime drama also scored a 1.0 rating, below the mid-1 rating SVU repeats at 10 have scored.  Last year on this night: Minute to Win It (1.0), Law & Order SVU (0.9) and Law & Order SVU (1.5).
         

              Season        Last  Six  Weeks 
NBC Wed      High Low  2.01 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 3.07
Up All Night 2.4  1.5 
Free Agents  1.3  1.0  
Whitney      2.1  1.4  1.7  1.5  1.7  1.5  1.5  1.6*
Chelsea      2.3  1.3  1.7  1.5  1.4  1.3  1.3  1.5*
Harry's Law  1.4  1.1  --   --
Rock Center  1.1  0.6       1.1  0.7  0.6  0.7  1.0*
L&O SVU      2.4  1.6  1.6R 2.0  1.7  1.6  1.6  1.0R



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The Sked: Declining Network Ratings -- How Bad Are They?

For the past several weeks, "season low" and "down sharply from last year" have been repeated phrases in our daily ratings posts, mostly for broadcast network programs but also for cable programs, as well.  What's going on here?  After all, this season started in a very promising fashion with the combined audience for the four major broadcast networks even with the prior season, an almost impossible feat given the the ever increasing media fragmentation in today's world. 

To take a broad view, we looked at the season in three distinct parts, summarized in the table below.  In the first part of the television season (the first 11 weeks from September 19-December 4), ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX combined for a 10.4 Adult 18-49 rating in prime time, exactly the same rating as the comparable period in 2010.  Then from December through most of January, the broadcast networks were pacing 4% behind the 2010-11 season, a decline more in line with past decade or so.  Nothing to worry about, most thought.  But then in late January up until now, the decline in network TV viewing has really picked up steam, pushing a double-digit rate.


            4-Network (ABC CBS NBC FOX) 
      Prime Time Adult 18-49 Combined Rating

                      2011-12  2010-11  % chg
     Sep 19-Dec  4     10.4     10.4      0%
     Dec  5-Jan 22      9.0      9.4     -4%
     Jan 23-Mar  4     10.2     11.1     -9%


To get an idea of the pace of change, the chart below shows the yearly decline in network television viewing for each week of the season to date.  In the first part of the season, there were a few up weeks and a few down weeks but the magnitude of the differences generally were quite small (mostly under 5%).  More recently, however, the weekly swings have become much more pronounced: more in the 10% or even 15%+ range and predominantly on the negative side.



 
Singing Competition: The Changing of the Guard.  Clearly, much of the accelerating decline in the past few months is related to the collapse of FOX's American Idol and the ascendance of NBC's The Voice.  The biggest nightly declines for network TV since late January have come on Idol's nights (Tuesday and Wednesday) and the only significant up night is Monday, home of The Voice.  Many viewers who used to watch three to four hours per week of American Idol now can get their singing fix with two hours of The Voice, and the rest of the time spent formerly watching Idol apparently as not been shifted to other network programs.  For from it.  As we have seen recently, many marquee programs like Modern Family, Glee and The Office have suffered serious audience erosion over the course of the season and are stuck at season lows, far behind last season's pace.

            Nightly Trend (This Year vs Last Year)
                  4-Network (ABC CBS NBC FOX) 
            % Change Adult 18-49 Prime Time Rating

                   MON  TUE  WED  THU  FRI  SAT  SUN  Week

  Sep 19-Dec  4    -2%   0%  +9%  +2% +19%  +8%  -5%    0%
  Dec  5-Jan 22    +3% -16%  +1%  +2%  -5% -11%  -1%   -4%
  Jan 23-Mar  4   +12%  -8% -19% -19%   0% -17%  -1%   -9%





Are viewers abandoning television? We know that time spent watching live television remains remarkably consistent over the years, based on Nielsen analysis.  In fact, as DVR usage has risen, the total amount of time spent in front of a television has actually increased in the past five years.  Young adults (18-34) now spend almost 33 hours per week in front of the TV, up slightly from five years ago.  Although these young adults watch an hour less of live TV per week since 2007, DVR playback has increased well over an hour.  (Viewing video online was not a part of this particular study, but separate Nielsen studies have shown time spent streaming is similar to the DVR playback levels and tends to be additive rather cannibalistic for TV viewing.)  Middle-aged adults (35-54) watch over 37 hours per week, with about half an hour less live TV but almost two hours more DVR playback per week.  And older adults (55+) now watch over 46 hours per week, with an hour more live TV and over an hour and half more DVR playback.  

The DVR (and videogames for young adults) have only increased America's love affair with television.  And the vast majority of time spent with television is still devoted to watching TV live -- even with younger viewers.  We have not seen an update of this study into 2012, but given the long-term trends it is hard to imagine a sudden abandonment of the medium anywhere near the recent declines in broadcast prime time viewing. 


            Time Spent with Television per Week

                 Total Day (hours:minutes)

          Adults 18-34     Adults 35-54      Adults 55+
          2007    2011     2007    2011     2007    2011
Total TV  32:39  32:52     36:19  37:19     43:57  46:19
Live TV   27:02  26:00     32:32  32:08     41:50  42:53
DVR        1:34   2:46      1:36   3:22      0:50   2:30
Videogame  1:22   2:30      0:17   0:38      ----   ----


note: DVD and VHS playback not shown.



So the remarkable long-term durability of the television medium really puts the recent declines in broadcast network viewing in perspective.  If the 9% broadcast decline since late January turns into the more recent 10-15% declines, an already stressed business model starts to become extremely frayed.  And, oh yeah.  Daylight Saving Time hits Sunday, as the longer days add yet another strong headwind for network ratings, particularly in the 8:00 pm hour of prime time.  The season could get even bumpier for the broadcasters quite soon.    


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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





FOX's 4-sitcom Tuesday excited no one.

FOX:  I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER and BREAKING IN made unimpressive returns to the schedule.  Daughter could claim a decent retention of its RAISING HOPE lead-in, and it also won the head-to-head sitcom battle at 8:30PM--but really there's nothing good about a 1.6 premiere.  Breaking In had less excuse, falling to an ugly 1.7 from NEW GIRL's strong 3.0 lead-in, which was the highest number on any network last night. And even though Raising Hope handled its shift to 8PM well, it aired against an ABC repeat last night, so future results may not be as strong.


ABC: The network actually aired some good programming last night, to little avail.  COUGAR TOWN had a funny half-hour directed by Courtney Cox, and for Bill Lawrence fans, it had the additional pleasure of a guest appearance by Scrubs' Sarah Chalke.  After that, THE RIVER finally delved into what's supposed to be the show's central mystery--just what happened to Dr. Emmett Cole--which allowed Bruce Greenwood to appear in more than snippets, in a creepy hour directed by Michelle McLaren.  For their troubles, the show got matching lousy 1.5 ratings, 4th place for their slots.  (Cougar Town at least had the excuse that it rose from its repeat LAST MAN STANDING lead-in, but as its cast members continue to flock to 2d position pilot deals, that doesn't matter much.)  The evening ended with a terrible 0.9 for a BODY OF PROOF repeat that was beaten by primary election coverage on NBC.

NBC:  THE BIGGEST LOSER fell to a season and possibly a series low, dipping below a 2 for the first time.  At 10PM, a DECISION 2012 special scored a not-embarrassing-for-a-news-special 1.0.

CBS:  All repeats, which were still enough to win all but the 9-9:30PM half-hour of the night.

CW:  90210 returned after a month off with a fine (CW level) 0.7, but RINGER dipped to a 0.5 after that.

Tonight's only new arrival is REVENGE FOR REAL, which ABC will use to sucker in Revenge fans rather than air repeats.  The network is giving it a bit of a lead-in with a new HAPPY ENDINGS (although that show's rating will be lowered by having a repeat MODERN FAMILY as its own lead-in).  NBC airs new sitcoms at 8-9PM, and apart from that, only the unscripted shows on all the networks are original.


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The Sked: TUESDAY RATINGS March 6

Super Tuesday was anything but for the broadcast networks last night.  Each broadcast network was down significantly from the same night last year (worst hit was FOX at 8 pm -- a 5.9 rating for a Glee original episode was replaced by two original comedy episodes that rated a 2.1 and 1.6).  Worse, the Super Tuesday election disrupted network schedules (local coverage in some markets pre-empted all or part of programs, while network coverage was inserted into entertainment programs with the time coming directly out of on-air promotion time).  So fewer people were watching and it was even more difficult to reach those viewers than normal with promos for the rest of the week.  This is yet another night of season lows and sizable declines from last season, a trend that has really picked up since the first of the year.  Come back later today when we will look at the prime time season so far, highlighting the accelerating yearly declines.


             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Tuesday      FOX    CBS    NBC    ABC
03.06.2012   2.1    1.9    1.6    1.3     THIS WEEK
02.28.2012   5.1    2.8    2.0    1.6     LAST WEEK
03.08.2011   4.2    2.1    2.6    1.6     LAST YEAR

With Glee taking a break, FOX shifted to a four-comedy Tuesday, moving Raising Hope to 8:00, returning I Hate My Teenager Daughter to 8:30, and bringing Breaking In back in the 9:30 time period.  No one really noticed.  New Girl continues to struggle at its season low (3.0), although it is now FOX's highest-rated show of the night.  The rest of the comedies struggled at 2 rating or below.  Last year on this night, FOX aired Glee (5.9) followed by Raising Hope (3.2) and Traffic Light (1.8). 


FOX Tues     High Low  1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21 2.28 3.06
Glee         4.0  2.8  3.7  3.3  2.8  3.0  --  
Raising Hope 3.1  2.0  2.0  2.1  2.1  2.1  --   2.1*
I Hate My T  1.6  1.6                           1.6*
New Girl     4.8  3.0  3.5  3.5  3.1  3.0  --   3.0*
Breaking In  1.7  1.7                           1.7*

CBS moved into repeat mode and had a Tuesday fairly similar to its last repeat burst in January.  Last year CBS averaged a 2.1 on the comparable night of repeats:  NCIS (2.4), NCIS Los Angeles (2.7) and Good Wife (1.3).

CBS Tues     High Low  1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21 2.28 3.06
NCIS         4.3  3.5  2.0R 4.2  3.9  3.6  3.5  2.4R
NCIS: LA     3.7  2.7  1.8R 3.1  3.2  2.7  3.1  1.9R
Unforgettble 2.9  1.9  1.4R 2.2  2.3  2.0  1.9  1.4R



ABC aired a half repeat (Last Man Standing and Body of Proof) and half original schedule (Cougar Town and The River), but the entire night looked like a see of repeats given the ratings.  Last year on this night: No Ordinary Family (1.1), V (2.3) and Detroit 187 (1.5).
 
ABC Tues           High Low  1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21 2.28 3.06
Last Man Standing  3.6  2.1  1.5R 2.3  2.2  2.2  2.2  1.4R
Cougar Town        1.8  1.6            1.8  1.7  1.6  1.4*
Man Up!            2.4  1.6 
Work It            2.0  1.5 
Dancing Res        4.1  2.6   

Celeb Wife Swap    2.1  1.9  1.9 
The River          2.4  1.5       2.4  1.7  1.7  1.5  1.5*
Body of Proof      2.2  1.2  1.0R --   1.2  1.5  1.4  0.9R


Biggest Loser tied a season low, while an NBC News Decision 2012 special (1.0) replaced a Parenthood repeat and actually slightly improved what the family drama would have done.  Last year on this night: Biggest Loser (3.3) from 8-10 pm and a Parenthood repeat (1.2).      


NBC Tues     High Low  1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21 2.28 3.06
Biggest Loser2.7  1.9  2.1  2.3  2.1  2.3  2.0  1.9*
Parenthood   2.2  1.6  0.7R 1.6  1.6  1.7  1.9  --





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The Sked: Cable Ratings Feb 28-March 5

AMC's Walking Dead and MTV's Jersey Shore remain at the top of the cable ratings chart this week, although both are down a few tenths from last week.  Nevertheless, each program remains the top-rated program with young adults in their respective time periods, beating all broadcast and cable competition.  Sunday at 9:00: #1 Walking Dead (3.5), #2 Once Upon a Time (3.4).  Thursday at 10:00: #1 Jersey Shore (2.7), #2 Awake (2.0).
 
Click "read more" to see the updated cable chart.





 

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





SMASHWatch is grinning this morning, but should it be?

NBC:  Airing against repeats on both of the other networks, SMASH was up a big 0.4 to 2.7, a healthy number for any 10PM drama these days.  So... yay?  Maybe, but the show itself continues to get markedly worse, moving with near-rocket speed from "potential Emmy contender" to "disappointing" to just plain "not good."  Smash, very sadly, is becoming a collection of unbelievable characters, unmotivated bitchfest scenes and bad, on-the-nose dialogue, with increasingly painful plot developments (was it just me, or did last night's final sequence suggest the writers had been watching "On the Street Where You Live" from My Fair Lady on Autorepeat?).  But I digress:  the rating was, no question about it, very good.  Apart from the ABC/CBS repeats, it helped that lead-in THE VOICE was also up 0.7 from last week, confirming its new place as the big bad reality show of the season.


FOX:  2 hours of ALCATRAZ matched its series low at 1.8, coming in below not just the new programming on NBC and ABC, but the repeat sitcoms on CBS.  (If anyone can make sense of the mythology on this show, congratulations.  Although Parminder Nagra will never have a better job, since for half the season she's been collecting a paycheck for lying comatose in an infirmary bed.)

ABC:  THE BACHELOR, airing the last episode before its season finale, continued at a very steady 2.5 (every episode this year has scored within a 0.3 ratings window), and was followed by a CASTLE rerun.

CBS:  An all-repeat night.  Notably, all the sitcoms were down 20-30% from their January repeats in the pre-Voice era.  HAWAII 5-0 won the 10PM rerun battle with Castle, although both were far behind Smash.  

CW:  A frankly weird night of repeat numbers.  AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL was just 0.1 below the original airing of the same episode last week (and dead even with last Monday's new episode of GOSSIP GIRL), and the repeat HART OF DIXIE was only 0.1 behind last week's new episode.

Tonight, FOX debuts its 4-sitcom line-up, with RAISING HOPE moving to 8PM, I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER returning at 8:30PM, and the season premiere of BREAKING IN following a very good episode of NEW GIRL at 9:30PM.  CBS is the only network in repeats, although ABC will toss a rerun of BODY OF PROOF on at 10PM.  

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The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS March 5

With the February sweep over, we enter the treacherous March/April period, where more than half the time periods on the broadcast networks have repeat episodes on any given week.  Having originals is a distinct advantage in this time, and NBC was ready with an all-new Monday.  The Voice surged back, and Smash had a very promising outing.

 
               Nightly Primetime Average
Monday         NBC     CBS     ABC     FOX
03.05.2012     4.8     1.8     2.1     1.9    THIS WEEK
02.27.2012     4.4     3.2     2.4     4.5    LAST WEEK
03.07.2011     2.1     2.4     2.8     3.9    LAST YEAR

NBC had a very good night by offering all originals against many repeats on the other networks.  The Voice rebounded to a 6.1 rating (5.8 in the 8:00 hour and 6.3 in the 9:00 hour).  And the good news continued at 10:00 pm with Smash turning in a 2.7 rating, almost matching its second week rating, taking full advantage of its Voice lead-in and the repeat competition on ABC and CBS (Hawaii Five-O at a 1.5 and Castle at a 1.4).  Last year on this night: The Event 8-10 pm (2.0) and Harry's Law (2.3).      

NBC Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05
The Voice      6.7  6.0       6.7  6.0  6.0  5.4  6.1*
Smash          3.8  2.3       3.8  2.8  2.3  2.3  2.7*
The Sing-Off   1.9  1.3  -- 
Who's Still St 1.7  1.5  1.7
Fear Factor    3.5  2.3  1.5R 
Playboy Club   1.6  1.2  
Rock Center    1.6  0.7  0.8



CBS went into repeat mode on the first Monday after the February sweep, and viewers were just not interested in catching up on episodes they might have missed earlier.  Last year on this night:  How I Met Your Mother (2.0), Mad Love (2.7), Two and a Half Men (3.0), Mike & Molly (2.7) and Hawaii Five-O (2.1).   


CBS Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05
How I Met Your 4.9  3.4  2.5R 4.0  3.4  3.8  3.6  2.0R
2 Broke Girls  7.1  3.8  2.7R 4.3  3.8  4.0  3.8  2.1R
2.5 Men       10.7  3.6  3.0R 4.3  3.9  4.2  3.6  2.1R
Mike & Molly   4.8  2.9  2.3R 3.4  3.4  3.4  2.9  1.8R
Hawaii Five-O  3.4  2.5  1.7R 2.7  2.7  2.9  2.5  1.5R

The Bachelor was an original episode ("The Women Tell All" edition) and it rated the same as the previous several weeks, not gaining any advantage by CBS being in repeats.  Last year on this night, ABC averaged a 2.8 rating: The Bachelor (3.5) and Castle (1.5). 

ABC Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05
Dancing Stars  4.0  2.8  --   --
You Deserve It 1.7  0.8  --   --
The Bachelor   2.7  2.4  2.6  2.6  2.5  2.5  2.6  2.5*
Castle         3.2  2.0  1.4R 2.0  2.0  2.1  2.1  1.4R



FOX tried to spark some interest in Alcatraz with a two-hour block of original episodes, but no momentum was built.  The first hour averaged a 1.9 rating and the 9 pm episode scored a 1.8, matching a series low for the struggling drama from JJ Abrams' Bad Robot shingle.  Last year on this night, FOX averaged a first-place 3.9 rating House (5.2) and Chicago Code (2.6).   


FOX Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05

Terra Nova     3.1  2.1  --   --
House          3.9  2.4  2.9  2.5
  2.4  2.4  --   --
Alcatraz       3.3  1.8  2.8  2.3  1.9  1.8  --   1.8





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THE SKED SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





Maybe ABC should have left "Bitches" in the title.

ABC:  GCB (aka Good Christian Bitches, aka Good Christian Belles) had a very unimpressive debut, a 2.2 that was way below Pan Am's premiere in the fall.  (In fairness, the DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES lead-in to Pan Am was a lot higher than last night's rating.)  GCB wasn't able to win its hour, and considering that it was only 0.2 ahead of 3rd place CSI Miami, the likelihood is that once it settles into post-premiere numbers, it'll be in last place at 10PM.  ABC was hoping this could be the show that inherits the 9PM Housewives slot next season, but the signs aren't good.  Meanwhile, Housewives itself, as it nears the home stretch of its run (7 episodes left), was up a nice 0.3 from its pre-Oscar week airing.  The queen of ABC's Sunday night, though, is ONCE UPON A TIME, with a terrific 3.4 that was more than a half-point higher than anything else on network TV last night.


NBC:  CELEBRITY APPRENTICE, like every other major reality franchise this year (except The Voice), is substantially down from last season, in the neighborhood of 30%.  (Things aren't going to improve much next week, when its lead-in becomes Harry's Law, a show even CBS thinks skews old.)  But the show still won the 10PM hour, and a win is a win.

CBS:  Even with a solid 2.8 lead-in from THE AMAZING RACE, THE GOOD WIFE took a tumble to a season low 1.8, and while the show probably isn't in danger of cancellation--it's the only classy drama on the network--it had better hope those upscale viewers don't go anywhere.  (It'll be interesting to see what happens March 25, when Mad Men, a show that defines "upscale," makes its return in the same timeslot.)  CSI MIAMI was only 0.1 above its own season low, but faced atypical competition with the much-hyped GCB premiere.

FOX:  Another day at the office for the animation line-up, with every show within 0.1 of its rating 2 weeks ago.  FAMILY GUY and THE SIMPSONS, though, are down 25-30% from last season's average.

It's Monday, and that means SMASHWatch is on.  Tonight is the show's opportunity to hold or even increase last week's rating, thanks to repeats on both ABC and CBS.  Also, tonight was meant to be the 2-hour season finale of ALCATRAZ, but due to last week's rescheduled NASCAR race, it's just a 2-hour episode.  CBS and CW are all-rerun, and CASTLE is a repeat after a new BACHELOR.  



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The Sked: SUNDAY RATINGS March 4

ABC wins the night but has a fairly disappointing debut of GCB.  Additionally, all the networks -- including ABC -- are down significantly versus the same night last year.  The four broadcast networks have seen a collective 2.5 rating points just disappear from Sunday night, more audience scattering to cable and other activities.      


               Nightly Primetime Average
Sunday         ABC    CBS    FOX    NBC
03.04.2012     2.6    2.1    2.0    1.7  THIS WEEK
02.26.2012     8.9    1.4    1.4    1.4  LAST WEEK
03.06.2011     3.1    2.7    2.7    2.4  LAST YEAR


ABC premiered GCB on a night of Sunday originals, the week following the Oscars.  ABC averaged a first-place 2.6 rating with Adults 18-49 on the night with a season-high rating for America's Funniest Home Videos, a solid rating from Once Upon a Time (up from recent lows and the highest rated broadcast network show on the night), a recovering Desperate Housewives.  However, GCB failed to hold its DH lead-in (let alone grow somewhat as we forecast).  Instead, the new soap fell three-tenths of a rating point from its lead-in.  Further, GCB wilted a bit at the half-hour mark (2.3 from 10:00-10:30 and 2.2 from 10:30-11:00, although the show actually started at 10:01 so that downward blip might be entirely erased in the official nationals).  Competitively, GCB tied for first place from 10:00-10:30 (GCB and Celebrity Apprenctice each 2.3 and CSI: Miami 2.0) but fell to second from 10:30-11:00 (Celebrity Apprentice 2.4, GCB 2.2 and CSI: Miami 2.1).  Like most new dramas, GCB will probably settle down a few tenths in the next few weeks, leaving Celebrity Apprentice in first for the hour.  Not a disaster, but it has to be disappointing for ABC.  On this night last year on ABC: AFHV (1.9), Secret Millionaire (3.6), Desperate Housewives (4.3) and Brothers & Sisters (2.8).

ABC Sun    High Low  1.22 1.29 2.12 2.19 2.26 3.04
AFHV       2.0  1.1  1.1  1.9  2.0  2.0  --   2.2*
Once Upon  4.0  2.9  3.2  3.5  3.0  3.1  --   3.4*
Desp House 3.2  1.8  2.6  --   1.8  2.2  --   2.5*
Pan Am     3.1  0.7  1.2  --   0.7  1.2  --   
GCB        2.2  2.2                           2.2*



CBS fell to a weak second-place for the night (2.1 rating from 7-11 pm).  Amazing Race rebounded nicely to its premiere of this cycle after a rough outing last week against the Oscars and not too far off last year's pace (2.8 last night and 3.2 on the same night last year, a nominal decline compared to so many other shows).  But Good Wife just can't get it going at 9 pm, on track for another season low, while CSI: Miami flirts with its season low at 10.  Last year on this night: 60 Minutes (1.7), Amazing Race (3.2), Undercover Boss (3.0) and CSI: Miami (2.9).    


CBS Sun    High Low  1.22 1.29 2.12 2.19 2.26 3.04
60 Minutes 4.8  1.5  1.5  1.5  2.8  1.8  1.3  1.6*
Amaz Race  3.3  2.2  --   --   --   2.8  2.2  2.8*
Under. Boss3.0  2.3  2.3  3.0  --
Good Wife  2.7  1.9  1.1R 2.2  --   2.1  --   1.8*
CSI Miami  2.6  1.9  1.3R 2.3  --   2.2  1.1R 2.0*



After a week of repeats against the Academy Awards, the FOX comedies returned to levels from two weeks ago, generally three or four tenths above season lows for each show.  Napoleon Dynamite ended its short season with an undistinguished 2.0 rating.  Last year 8-10 pm on this night: Simpsons (3.2), Bob's Burgers (2.5), Family Guy (4.1) and Cleveland Show (2.6).



FOX Sun    High Low  1.22 1.29 2.12 2.19 2.26 3.04
Simpsons   5.4  2.0  --   2.4  2.0  2.6  1.6R 2.5*
Napoleon   4.4  1.7       2.1  1.8  2.0  1.6R 2.0*
Cleveland  2.2  2.2  --   -- 
Family Guy 4.4  2.5  --   3.1  2.5  2.8  1.6R 2.8*
Amer Dad   3.0  1.7  --   2.4  1.8  2.2  1.5R 2.1*

NBC was basically off the air from 7-9 pm with Dateline (1.0) and a repeat Celebrity Apprentice from 8-9 (1.1).  The original episode of the Trump reality show from 9-11 pm averaged a 2.3 (rating by half hour: 2.2... 2.3... 2.3... 2.4).   A definite rebound from last week's outing versus the Oscars but well off last year's pace and surprisingly lower than the cycle-premiere rating.  On this night last year:  Dateline (1.4), America's Next Great Restaurant (1.8) and Celebrity Apprentice (3.1).

NBC Sun    High Low  1.22 1.29 2.12 2.19 2.26 3.04
Celeb App  2.6  1.8  --   --   --   2.6  1.8  2.3*



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The Sked: SNL RATINGS Viewers Love a Trainwreck

Last night Saturday Night Live with guest host Lindsay Lohan (see a complete review of the sad attempt at a comeback tour) was the second highest-rated episode of the season, behind only the Charles Barkley episode after the very high-rated NFL Wild Card game.  Lohan's episode last night averaged a 5.5 household rating and 14 share in the 56 metered markets, compared to an 8.2 / 19 for Charles Barkley on January 7.

In the 25 metered markets with demographic ratings, the Lindsay Lohan episode last night averaged a 3.3 rating with Adults 18-49, more than doubling the highest-rated show in prime time Saturday (the 1.3 rating for the 20/20 special My Extreme Affliction on ABC).

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