STATUETTE STAKES: NY Film Critics Kick Off Awards Season
THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - September 24
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES September 16-18
Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), The Lion King returned to theaters 17 years later -- in 3D no less -- and scored a solid #1 for the weekend. Drive opened okay, while Straw Dogs and I Don't Know How She Does It were very quiet arrivals. Conatagion fell to #2, but with a fairly small second-week decline, its final domestic gross has been upgraded. The weekend overall is now looking like it will be down marginally from this weekend last year.
September 16-18, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
The Lion King in 3D (Dis) $29.3 $117
Contagion (WB) $14.5 -35% $ 84+
Drive (FilmDis) $11.0 $ 42
The Help (Dis/DW) $ 6.4 -28% $168
Straw Dogs (Sony) $ 5.0 $ 19
I Don't Know How She Does(Wein) $ 4.5 $ 11
Warrior (LG) $ 2.8 -47% $ 19-
The Debt (Focus) $ 2.9 -38% $ 34
Rise of Planet of Apes (Fox) $ 2.6 -32% $183
Colombiana (Sony) $ 2.3 -42% $ 39
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Limited Releases
Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (partial results to come):
-- Restless (Sony Pictures Classics) opened with a weak $3,500 average at 5 theaters
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $85 million total, down 3% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Town and Easy A opened but up 2% from the typical total for this weekend the last four years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #37
Volume (millions)
2011 $ 85 (+2% vs 2007-10 average; -3% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $ 83 Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $ 87 The Town $24, Easy A $18, Devil $12
2009 $ 87 Cloudy Chance Meatballs $30, The Informant! $10.5
2008 $ 76 Lakeview Terrace $15, My Best Friend's Girl $8
2007 $ 80 Resident Evil Extinction $24, Good Luck Chuck $14
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Dolphin Tale from Warner Brothers, Abduction from Lionsgate, Moneyball from Sony, and Killer Elite from Open Road Films. Those movies will be compared to Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps ($19 million opening weekend), Legends of the Guardians ($16 million), and You Again ($8 million).
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - September 17
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 16 BOX OFFICE RESULTS
After a pretty long string of accurate box office predictions, ShowBuzzDaily really missed the boat on The Lion King in 3D. We were debating between an $11 million or $15 million forecast and decided to go with the lower number. But wow was there interest in the 3D version of the Disney classic: an estimated $31 million weekend. The other openers are lost in the shuffle, but Lion King is giving the box office some life (and giving Disney a reason to go back into the vault again selectively). Overall the weekend is looking like it will be up around 1% from this weekend last year (turning around what was looking to be a down 15% weekend).
The Lion King in 3D is opening way above a flawed forecast ($8.8 million Friday for an expected $31 million this weekend versus an $11 million forecast). The updated reissue is headed for $121 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday. Critics nationwide are broadly positive about the film (89% positive at RottenTomatoes) so we could some adjustments upward in the final gross in the next few weeks if the word of mouth on the look of the film is very positive.
Drive is opening close forecast ($4.0 million Friday for an estimated $11 million opening weekend, compared to an $12 million prediction). The film is on track for $42 million in North America. Critics nationwide also have been very positive (93% positive at RottenTomatoes).
Straw Dogs is opening well below forecast ($1.98 million Friday for an expected $5.5 million this weekend versus a $9 million forecast). The movie is headed for $20 million in North America. Critics nationwide have been negative (38% positive so far).
I Don't Know How She Does It is also opening well below forecast ($1.56 million Friday for an expected $4.5 million this weekend versus a $8 million forecast). The movie is headed for $11 million in North America. Critics have been pretty harsh on the Sarah Jessica Parker film (20% positive so far).
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions.
Contagion is having a good second weekend, down only 33% from its solid opening. The Matt Damon virus thriller has been upgraded to a final domestic estimate of almost $90 million.
September 16-18, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
Lion King in 3D (Dis) [$11 ] $31.0 $ 8.8 $121
Contagion (WB) [$13 ] $15.0 $ 4.6 $ 87+
Drive (FilmDis) [$12 ] $11.0 $ 4.0 $ 42
The Help (DW/Dis) [$ 6 ] $ 6.5 $ 1.9 $168
Straw Dogs (Sony) [$ 9 ] $ 5.5 $ 2.0 $ 20
I Don't Know How (Wein) [$ 8 ] $ 4.5 $ 1.6 $ 11
The Debt (Focus) [$ 3 ] $ 3.1 $ 0.9 $ 34
Warrior (LG) [$ 3.5] $ 3.0 $ 0.9 $ 20
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$ 2 ] $ 2.7 $ 0.8 $183
Colombiana (Sony) [$ 2 ] $ 2.5 $ 0.7 $ 39
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $88 million total, up 1% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Town and Easy A opened and up 7% from the typical total for this weekend the last four years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #37
Volume (millions)
2011 $ 88 (+7% vs 2007-10 average; +1% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $ 83 Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $ 87 The Town $24, Easy A $18, Devil $12
2009 $ 87 Cloudy Chance Meatballs $30, The Informant! $10.5
2008 $ 76 Lakeview Terrace $15, My Best Friend's Girl $8
2007 $ 80 Resident Evil Extinction $24, Good Luck Chuck $14
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Dolphin Tale from Warner Brothers, Abduction from Lionsgate, Moneyball from Sony, and Killer Elite from Open Road Films. Those movies will be compared to Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps ($19 million opening weekend), Legends of the Guardians ($16 million), and You Again ($8 million).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice
THE BIJOU: Early Boxoffice Report
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS September 16-18
A rather sleepy weekend ahead, most likely down about 15% from the same weekend last year. No dominant openers arrive Friday, leaving the weekend Contagion's to lose. At about 2,200 theaters, The Lion King in 3D from Disney should average $5,100 per theater (for $11 million this weekend). The re-release in the unnecessary extra dimension has been very well received by critics nationwide, with 91% positive at RottenTomatoes. This film is probably headed for around $40-50 million domestically, adding to the $328 million it made domestically and $788 million worldwide (in 1994 dollars). (In today's dollars, the original run of Lion King would be $655 million domestic and $1.57 billion worldwide.)
Opening at 2,200 theaters from Sony, Straw Dogs should average a weak $3,600 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9 million opening weekend). Early reviews are mixed, with 60% positive. Straw Dogs is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.
Finally, opening at 2,800 theaters from Weinstein, I Don't Know How She Does It should average a tepid $2,800 from Friday-Sunday (for an $8 million opening weekend). Early reviews are brutal, with only 29% positive. The Sarah Jessica Parker vehicle is on track for $20 million in North America.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
September 16-18 Positive Weekend Total*
Drive FilmDis R 94% $ 12.0 $ 45
Lion King 3D Dis G 91% $ 11.0 $ 45
Straw Dogs Sony R 60% $ 9.0 $ 25
I Don't Know How She Wein PG13 29% $ 8.0 $ 20
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Contagion will probably hold on to the top spot with a decent 43% decline this weekend, although Drive or even The Lion King in 3D could challenge it for the weekend crown. The other returning films are slipping into oblivion, well below $10 million this weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
September 16-18 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Contagion WB -43% $13.0 $ 72
The Help Dis/DW -31% $ 6.0 $171
Warrior LG -38% $ 3.5 $ 24
The Debt Focus -41% $ 3 $ 36
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox -46% $ 2 $183
Colombiana Sony -46% $ 2 $ 41
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $83 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total (and the total for the same weekend in 2009) was $87 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $74 million, down about 15% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9/17/10





