Movie Box Review

As expected, Game 6 of the World Series went up substantially in the official nationals to a 6.5 Adult 18-49 rating.  Not quite the 6.9 forecast but close.  The news was also good for The Big Bang Theory (4.6), The Office (2.9), Person of Interest (2.7) and Vampire Diaries (1.5), all adjusted up a tenth of a point.  But Nielsen also taketh away: Whitney (2.0), Prime Suspect (1.1) and Secret Circle (0.9) were adjusted down a tenth.  The news was particularly tough on NBC at 8 pm, with Community falling to fifth place behind The CW's Vampire Diaries.  And Prime Suspect, already a brutal story with Prime Suspect Week doing nothing for the struggling drama, just looks worse.

           NOVEMBER SWEEP SCORECARD
          2011 vs 2010 Day 1 of 28

                 2011    2010
          FOX     6.5     4.1     +59%
          CBS     3.1     3.4     -10%
          ABC     2.8     2.9     - 3%
          NBC     1.7     2.4     -28% 

Check back Saturday morning to see how high Game 7 was able to go on lightly viewed Friday night.  We'll also cover the Grimm premiere and update the sweep-to-date standings.

The November Sweep began last night, and FOX is off to a rousing start.  One night into the 28-night "sweep" period (in which each of the 210 TV markets are measured demographically in addition to the normal national ratings), FOX is #1 with a 5.8 fast national 18-49 rating, up 41% over the same night last year (which featured Game 2 of the World Series between San Francisco and Texas).  CBS is down 12% the first night of the sweep, ABC is down a nominal 3% and NBC is off a steep 25%.

           NOVEMBER SWEEP SCORECARD
          2011 vs 2010 Day 1 of 28

                 2011    2010
          FOX     5.8     4.1     +41%
          CBS     3.0     3.4     -12%
          ABC     2.8     2.9     - 3%
          NBC     1.8     2.4     -25% 

UPDATED with results from all networks below. 



Last night was all about Game 6 of The World Series, a nail-biting 10-9 victory for the St Louis Cardinals in 11 innings.  The game ended at 12:40 am ET.  The Texas Rangers were poised to win at multiple points in the game (twice St Louis was down to its final strike), but the Cardinals kept coming back with timely home runs and extra-base hits.  FOX averaged a 5.8 Adult 18-49 rating in prime time from 8-11 pm (starting at a 4.1 from 8:00-8:30 and building to a 6.6 from 10:30-11:00 pm, the latest ratings available at this time).  The full program rating from 8-12:40 will be available later today, but it will surely skyrocket.  The metered market household ratings indicate that viewers stayed up late to see the end of the game (well into the late night daypart in most of the country), and the official ratings will correctly account for the Western time zones (which are undercounted in the fast nationals).  We are guessing the final rating for the full duration of Game 6 will approach a 7 demo rating, which would put the game close to recent Game 6 numbers.

World Series Game 6 is scheduled to start at 8 pm ET tonight on FOX in St Louis, but the weather might be an issue.  The National Weather Service is predicting an 80% chance of rain tonight there with winds gusting to 22 mph and a low of 44F.  It all depends how heavy the rain is tonight, but MLB -- at FOX's urging, for certain -- will most likely make every effort to play.


If Game 6 needs to be played Thursday, the forecast calls for a clear night with a low around 39F.  Worst case for FOX would be a Game 7 played on Friday night, severely limiting the ratings potential because fewer viewers outside of St Louis and Dallas would stay home to watch.

ABC premiered Once Upon a Time last night with great success, a 3.9 Adult 18-49 rating, building impressively off a 1.5 rating lead-in from America's Funniest Home Videos.  Viewers liked what they saw in the pilot as audience built throughout the show: 8:00-8:30 (3.8 rating) and 8:30-9:00 (4.0).  The fairy tale-dual universe drama was also the highest rated entertainment show on the night, followed by Desperate Housewives (3.0) and Amazing Race (2.7).  We'll see if the audience sticks with this series over the next few weeks, but give ABC credit for opening the show.

• World Series  Game1 Game2 Game3 Game4
• 18-49 Rating   Wed   Thu   Sat   Sun
• 2007 BOS-COL   5.8   5.3   4.3   7.1
• 2008 PHI-TAM   4.8   4.0   3.2   5.1
• 2009 NYY-PHI   6.3   5.8   4.7   7.8
• 2010 SFG-TEX   4.7   4.0   2.9   4.3
• 2011 TEX-STL   4.2   4.0   3.5*  4.4*  *est. official rating

The fast nationals for Wednesday give Game 1 of the World Series a 3.9 Adult 18-49 rating (yet to be time zone adjusted).  Last night we predicted a 3.8 in the fast nationals and a 4.1 in the official nationals.  This number keeps it from being the worst Game 1 rating in history...just the second worst. 

The second lowest-rated Game 1 in MLB history will be enough to give FOX a win on the night, and the performance is on par with an X Factor original episode.  At least, FOX isn't forced into the unenviable position of replacing a higher-rated show for the Fall Classic.

ABC's Modern Family takes the crown as the highest rated show of the night (a 5.6 in the fast nationals and probably a 5.7 in the official ratings later today).  The other comedies were near their recent levels (The Middle 2.9, Suburgatory 3.1, Happy Endings 3.0), while Revenge dropped back down to a 2.5 (from a 2.7 last week).  Given the heavy promotional support Revenge continues to receive, this is probably a bitter pill for ABC to swallow.  For the night, ABC averaged a 3.3 rating.

CBS also averaged a 3.3 Wednesday, up one tenth from last week.  Survivor (3.3) and Criminal Minds (3.9) were each up one tenth, while CSI (2.6) was flat.

NBC averaged a 1.7 for the night, the same rating the network has turned in for three weeks.  Up All Night's birth episode did not pop a number (2.1), and the Whitney repeat (1.2) drifted down two tenths to Harry's Law reliable rating (Jason Alexander guest starring couldn't push Harry's above that 1.2 rating).  Another promo note, the spot at the end of Up All Night announcing that Whitney was coming up said "Whitney airs after The Office -- next on NBC".  Clearly a recycled spot, the voiceover wasn't changed for Wednesday night.  The error certainly didn't cause viewers to flee at 8:30, but it is one of those details that should be done correctly on network television. 

Pity the poor Former National Pastime.  In the quarter century that Nielsen has used the PeopleMeter to measure demographic ratings, viewership of the World Series has dropped by more than half in the key advertising sales demographic.  From 1987 (the first year demographic ratings came from electronic meters and remote controls rather than a paper diary) through 1993 (the last baseball season before the disastrous strike), Game 1 of the World Series averaged a 10.1 Adult 18-49 rating.  In the ten years after the strike (1995-2004), Game 1 averaged a still respectable 7.0 rating.  But since 2005 (as players scored fewer runs and hit far fewer home runs without the benefits of steroids), the average Game 1 has turned in a 5.0 rating (far below what a regular season NFL game generates).


Before the Strike that killed the 1994 postseason, it looked like the World Series was relatively bullet-proof.  No match-up from 1987-1993 features the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox (remember how lean those years were for those franchises?).  The period was riddled with regional pairings (Minnesota-St Louis, LA-Oakland, even two teams from the same market, San Francisco-Oakland).  Two of the Series even featured a Canadian team.  Even worse, CBS broadcast four Series (1990-1993) with coverage as lame as their Olympic efforts.  And yet the lowest Game 1 in this period was an 8.5 rating. 

From 1995-2004, the sport embarked on a long downward slide.   Game 1 ratings in that decade ranged from a high of 9.3 in 1996 (NY Yankees-Atlanta) to a low of 5.0 in 2002 (Anaheim-San Francisco).  It might be tempting to assume that 2002 was ignored because it was too regional, too California and lacking a marquee Northeast team.  But note that 2001 (Yankees-Arizona) was not much better: a 5.3 rating.  If we look at Game 1 ratings in this period featuring the Yankees or the Red Sox versus Game 1 ratings for Series without these iconic teams, there is only a slight advantage to having New York or Boston involved: a 7.2 average rating with New York or Boston and a 6.8 rating without.

However, in recent years the presence of Boston or New York has saved the sport from utter shame.  Since 2005, Game 1 of a Yankees or Red Sox Series has averaged a 6.1 rating (not bad in the DVR era), while Game 1 match-ups without either team have averaged all the way down to a 4.4 rating.   

The nadir for Game 1 came in 2006 when the St Louis Cardinals opened against the Detroit Tigers and only mustered a 3.6 rating.  This was also the last time Game 1 aired on a Saturday night, the least viewed of the week.  Since 2007, the new format places Game 1 on Wednesday (weather permitting, of course).  Until the fast nationals Thursday morning give us our first indication of how this year's Game 1 rated (featuring the Texas Rangers at the St Louis Cardinals), take a look at the table below for a complete historical view.  I am guessing this year's Game 1 will rate about a 4.1 in the official nationals and around a 3.8 in the fast nationals, just avoiding the "worst ever" title.

Poor TBS.  FOX's coverage of ALCS Game 4 (Texas at Detroit) ended up going 11 innings and four hours, from a delayed start at 6:35 pm ET to 10:35 pm.  The TBS game (NLCS Game 3, Milwaukee at St Louis) started on time shortly after 8 pm, and anyone tuning in to TBS from FOX after their game ended found a game already in the 7th inning.  TBS was free of FOX's Major League Baseball coverage for only 43 minutes, from 10:35-11:18.



Texas is now up 3 games to 1, making a short series almost guaranteed, as predicted.  FOX is probably happy just to get the damn thing over with and not worry about the extra revenue of the later games.   

Tonight's scheduled X Factor will air Thursday night.  The episode that was scheduled for Thursday is now set for Sunday--but that's also when a 7th game of the American League series would air if necessary, so the schedule shifting isn't necessarily over.

As expected, it was an odd night on the broadcast networks.  FOX's Monday line-up was delayed 55 minutes by a very long (11 innings, 4 hours 25 minutes) ALCS Game 2 that started around 4 pm ET.  The primetime portion of the game (8:00-8:55) did a solid 3.4 preliminary 18-49 rating, but it didn't help FOX's dramas.  Terra Nova, which started at 8:55, logged a 2.6 rating (down from a 3.1 the first two weeks).  House (which premiered last week with a healthy 3.9 rating) crashed to a 2.3 rating at 9:55.  Add in all the upset FOX affiliates whose late local news had to face the ABC, CBS and NBC local newscasts, and the night was pretty much a disaster.


ABC averaged a 2.9 for the night, the same as last week.  Dancing with the Stars has a fast national rating of 3.1 (same as last week) and Castle has a 2.4 (down 0.1 from last week).  But when the official nationals come in around lunchtime, ABC should go down a few tenths since ABC's station in Detroit carried the Bears-Lions football game locally in primetime -- all of those Detroit rating points will be replaced by the tiny ratings Dancing received at 2 am in the Motor City. 

CBS won the night with a 3.9, but that's down from a 4.3 last week.  By program: How I Met Your Mother (down 0.6), 2 Broke Girls (down 0.3), Two and a Half Men (down 0.4), Mike & Molly (down 0.3), and Hawaii Five-O (down 0.6).  Other broadcasters weren't up so  CBS most likely lost some viewers to football on ESPN and baseball on FOX/TBS. 

NBC took a big hit (falling from a dreadful 1.6 last night to a horrendous 1.2 on the night this week).  The Sing-Off deflated from a 1.8 last week to a 1.4 last night, and the 10 pm time period absolutely cratered.  Last week, the final episode of The Playboy Club turned in a 1.2, while this week's Prime Suspect repeat went all the way down to a 0.7 rating.  The time period will be stone cold for Brian Williams and Rock Center.

On The CW, Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie each dropped to 0.6.

A night to forget.

From tvbythenumbers.com, decisive Game 5 last night (Detroit Tigers edging the New York Yankees 3-2 in the Bronx) made TBS the number three network in all of primetime television with a 7.3 Household rating in the metered markets, which represent over half the country equipped for next-day local ratings (as opposed to the fast nationals which provides a look at the entire country).  Only CBS and FOX had a higher HH rating last night.  Demographic ratings are not available yet -- they should come out lunchtime Pacific time.


In New York, the game did a very good 18.3 HH rating.  In Detroit, the telecast did a blockbuster 27.6 HH rating. 

Today, TBS has TWO Game 5's to broadcast.  The early game is Arizona Diamonbacks at Milwaukee Brewers at 5 ET, followed by St Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies at 8:30 ET.  It is highly unusual for three out of four League Division Series to go the full five games.  Some years, TBS has been lucky to get one Game 5.  Lots of incremental revenue to TBS with all the extra games this year.

Sports dominate the top of the weekly cable ratings chart.  ESPN's NFL Monday Night Football was #1 again in the cable world, although down from a 7.2 demo rating last week when the more attractive Dallas-Washington game was on.  In addition, the early round of Major League Baseball's Postseason is scattered throughout the chart below. 

Naturally the highest-rated early round game featured the New York Yankees, a team with a huge fan base and a team others love to hate.  Program note: Wednesday night October 5, TBS will have the decisive Game 5 in the Detroit Tigers-NY Yankees series.  FOX and TBS executives are currently holding a vigil that the Yankees and not the Tigers advance to the next round.  FOX has to be pulling for a Philadelphia Phillies-NY Yankees World Series, as opposed to, say, Milwaukee Brewers-Detroit Tigers.


Another baseball note.  The "MLB Post Game" program in the chart below ranked #5 for the week, and capped ESPN's terrific coverage of the final night of the regular season (last Wednesday), when the wild card spots were finally decided in three close games in primetime.  The games themselves barely made the chart because the drama didn't build until the very end of the evening.  The post game rating shows the interest that did build like a crescendo. 

Boardwalk Empire and Dexter premiered against each other Sunday at 9 pm and tied at 1.1 rating, about a third of what True Blood routinely did in the time period.  Both episodes, by the way, were fairly slow as season premiere resets often are, but Dexter seemed especially uninspired and even lazy.  In contrast, the penultimate episode of Breaking Bad was filled with tension and excitement but failed to make our 1.0 rating cutoff for the chart (a 0.8 rating).