Movie Box Review

As expected, it was an odd night on the broadcast networks.  FOX's Monday line-up was delayed 55 minutes by a very long (11 innings, 4 hours 25 minutes) ALCS Game 2 that started around 4 pm ET.  The primetime portion of the game (8:00-8:55) did a solid 3.4 preliminary 18-49 rating, but it didn't help FOX's dramas.  Terra Nova, which started at 8:55, logged a 2.6 rating (down from a 3.1 the first two weeks).  House (which premiered last week with a healthy 3.9 rating) crashed to a 2.3 rating at 9:55.  Add in all the upset FOX affiliates whose late local news had to face the ABC, CBS and NBC local newscasts, and the night was pretty much a disaster.


ABC averaged a 2.9 for the night, the same as last week.  Dancing with the Stars has a fast national rating of 3.1 (same as last week) and Castle has a 2.4 (down 0.1 from last week).  But when the official nationals come in around lunchtime, ABC should go down a few tenths since ABC's station in Detroit carried the Bears-Lions football game locally in primetime -- all of those Detroit rating points will be replaced by the tiny ratings Dancing received at 2 am in the Motor City. 

CBS won the night with a 3.9, but that's down from a 4.3 last week.  By program: How I Met Your Mother (down 0.6), 2 Broke Girls (down 0.3), Two and a Half Men (down 0.4), Mike & Molly (down 0.3), and Hawaii Five-O (down 0.6).  Other broadcasters weren't up so  CBS most likely lost some viewers to football on ESPN and baseball on FOX/TBS. 

NBC took a big hit (falling from a dreadful 1.6 last night to a horrendous 1.2 on the night this week).  The Sing-Off deflated from a 1.8 last week to a 1.4 last night, and the 10 pm time period absolutely cratered.  Last week, the final episode of The Playboy Club turned in a 1.2, while this week's Prime Suspect repeat went all the way down to a 0.7 rating.  The time period will be stone cold for Brian Williams and Rock Center.

On The CW, Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie each dropped to 0.6.

A night to forget.

When you see the fast nationals Tuesday morning, ABC's ratings for Dancing with the Stars and Castle will be overstated by at least a few tenths of a rating point.  WXYZ, the ABC station in Detroit, is carrying the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions Monday Night Football game live in primetime.  In contrast, Dancing with the Stars is scheduled to air at 2 am on WXYZ, followed by Castle.


The NFL sells local over-the-air broadcast rights to the markets involved in each ESPN Monday telecast.  (The station carrying the game in Chicago is an independent UHF station so it will not impact the fast nationals.)  Basically, the fast nationals measure all viewing and DVR activity on each network affiliate in primetime.  The fast nationals assume each network program is aired as scheduled -- so all the viewing in primetime on WXYZ in Detroit (and it will be substantial, a high double-digit demographic rating) will be temporarily credited to Dancing and Castle.  The official nationals released later in the day (precise program ratings rather than time period ratings) will correct this error and measure the Detroit viewing of Dancing with Stars and Castle in late night.

Terra Nova managed to do what almost no new show can pull off -- a week two rating equal to the premiere.  Looking at the entire night, CBS continues to own Monday, while FOX is in the game now and ABC has totally blown its lead.  NBC remains a non-factor on Monday. 

FOX is breathing a big sigh of relief as Terra Nova (3.0 Adult 18-49 rating) matches last week's premiere number, a rare achievement.  Last week Terra Nova was a 3.0 in the fast nationals and a 3.1 in the official nationals.  House returned to the schedule with a very nice build off of the pre-historic family drama (a 3.9 rating which will probably go up to a 4.0 in the official nationals this afternoon).  For the night, FOX was #2 with a 3.5 rating.  On this same night last year (10.4.2010), FOX was # 3 with a 3.1 rating for the night: House (4.0) and Lie to Me (2.1). 



CBS continued its winning ways on Mondays, averaging a 4.3 on the night (down from a 4.6 last week).  Two and a Half Men scored a 6.1 (down from 7.2 last week but still stellar), while Mike & Molly cooled a bit to a 4.3 (hard to believe that makes it the lowest-rated comedy in the powerful block).  How I Met Your Mother (4.5) and Two Broke Girls (4.4) were very close to last week's numbers, as was Hawaii Five-O (3.2).  On this night last year, CBS was a strong #2 with a 3.7 rating: How I Met Your Mother (3.5), Rules of Engagement (3.0), Two and a Half Men (4.5), Mike & Molly (3.9) and Hawaii Five-O (3.5). 

NBC is stuck in a very distant fourth place with a 1.6 rating for the night.  The Sing-Off was able to increase 0.1 from last week, but The Playboy Club gave that gain back and declined 0.1 from last week to a 1.2 rating at 10 pm.  On the third Monday of last season, NBC was also #4 with an already soft 2.0 rating:  Chuck (1.9), The Event (2.4) and Chase (1.7). 

ABC suffered another weekly decline in Dancing with the Stars (now a 3.1 -- it started at a 4.0 premiere week), and Castle is now down to a 2.6 (equal to what it did last year with a much higher lead-in).  For the night ABC averaged a third-place 2.9 rating.  This night last year, ABC won the night with a 3.8 rating: the 8-9 pm hour of Dancing with the Stars (4.2), the 9-10 pm hour of Dancing (4.4) and Castle (2.6). 

THE CW Monday line-up is stable week to week.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that both Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie sit well under a 1 rating.

Season to date ratings will be updated mid-week.


MONDAY FALL 2011    ShowBuzz         Episode Rating      
                    Estimate    #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing           3.9      4.0  3.3  3.1                 3.5
1000 Castle            2.6      3.2  3.1  2.6                 3.0
CBS
 800 How I Met         3.3      4.9  4.5  4.5                 4.6
 830 2 Broke Girls     3.2      7.1  4.6  4.4                 4.5
 900 2.5 Men           4.2      10.7 7.4  6.1                 8.1
 930 Mike & Molly      3.6      4.8  4.3                      4.6
1000 Hawaii Five-O     2.7      3.4  3.3  3.2                 3.3
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off      2.4      1.9  1.7  1.8                 1.8
1000 Playboy Club      2.1      1.6  1.3  1.2                 1.4
FOX
 800 Terra Nova        2.5      3.1  3.0                      3.1
 900 House             3.3      3.9                           3.9
CW
 800 Gossip Girl       n/a      0.7  0.7                      0.7
 900 Hart of Dixie     n/a      0.8  0.8                      0.8

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.