THE SKED: "Terra Nova" Becomes Extinct
The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS October 10 -- Odd Night
As expected, it was an odd night on the broadcast networks. FOX's Monday line-up was delayed 55 minutes by a very long (11 innings, 4 hours 25 minutes) ALCS Game 2 that started around 4 pm ET. The primetime portion of the game (8:00-8:55) did a solid 3.4 preliminary 18-49 rating, but it didn't help FOX's dramas. Terra Nova, which started at 8:55, logged a 2.6 rating (down from a 3.1 the first two weeks). House (which premiered last week with a healthy 3.9 rating) crashed to a 2.3 rating at 9:55. Add in all the upset FOX affiliates whose late local news had to face the ABC, CBS and NBC local newscasts, and the night was pretty much a disaster.
ABC averaged a 2.9 for the night, the same as last week. Dancing with the Stars has a fast national rating of 3.1 (same as last week) and Castle has a 2.4 (down 0.1 from last week). But when the official nationals come in around lunchtime, ABC should go down a few tenths since ABC's station in Detroit carried the Bears-Lions football game locally in primetime -- all of those Detroit rating points will be replaced by the tiny ratings Dancing received at 2 am in the Motor City.
CBS won the night with a 3.9, but that's down from a 4.3 last week. By program: How I Met Your Mother (down 0.6), 2 Broke Girls (down 0.3), Two and a Half Men (down 0.4), Mike & Molly (down 0.3), and Hawaii Five-O (down 0.6). Other broadcasters weren't up so CBS most likely lost some viewers to football on ESPN and baseball on FOX/TBS.
NBC took a big hit (falling from a dreadful 1.6 last night to a horrendous 1.2 on the night this week). The Sing-Off deflated from a 1.8 last week to a 1.4 last night, and the 10 pm time period absolutely cratered. Last week, the final episode of The Playboy Club turned in a 1.2, while this week's Prime Suspect repeat went all the way down to a 0.7 rating. The time period will be stone cold for Brian Williams and Rock Center.
On The CW, Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie each dropped to 0.6.
A night to forget.
THE SKED: FOX Delays - Baseball Hits "Terra Nova," Wait For "Girl"
The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS October 3
Terra Nova managed to do what almost no new show can pull off -- a week two rating equal to the premiere. Looking at the entire night, CBS continues to own Monday, while FOX is in the game now and ABC has totally blown its lead. NBC remains a non-factor on Monday.
FOX is breathing a big sigh of relief as Terra Nova (3.0 Adult 18-49 rating) matches last week's premiere number, a rare achievement. Last week Terra Nova was a 3.0 in the fast nationals and a 3.1 in the official nationals. House returned to the schedule with a very nice build off of the pre-historic family drama (a 3.9 rating which will probably go up to a 4.0 in the official nationals this afternoon). For the night, FOX was #2 with a 3.5 rating. On this same night last year (10.4.2010), FOX was # 3 with a 3.1 rating for the night: House (4.0) and Lie to Me (2.1).
CBS continued its winning ways on Mondays, averaging a 4.3 on the night (down from a 4.6 last week). Two and a Half Men scored a 6.1 (down from 7.2 last week but still stellar), while Mike & Molly cooled a bit to a 4.3 (hard to believe that makes it the lowest-rated comedy in the powerful block). How I Met Your Mother (4.5) and Two Broke Girls (4.4) were very close to last week's numbers, as was Hawaii Five-O (3.2). On this night last year, CBS was a strong #2 with a 3.7 rating: How I Met Your Mother (3.5), Rules of Engagement (3.0), Two and a Half Men (4.5), Mike & Molly (3.9) and Hawaii Five-O (3.5).
NBC is stuck in a very distant fourth place with a 1.6 rating for the night. The Sing-Off was able to increase 0.1 from last week, but The Playboy Club gave that gain back and declined 0.1 from last week to a 1.2 rating at 10 pm. On the third Monday of last season, NBC was also #4 with an already soft 2.0 rating: Chuck (1.9), The Event (2.4) and Chase (1.7).
ABC suffered another weekly decline in Dancing with the Stars (now a 3.1 -- it started at a 4.0 premiere week), and Castle is now down to a 2.6 (equal to what it did last year with a much higher lead-in). For the night ABC averaged a third-place 2.9 rating. This night last year, ABC won the night with a 3.8 rating: the 8-9 pm hour of Dancing with the Stars (4.2), the 9-10 pm hour of Dancing (4.4) and Castle (2.6).
THE CW Monday line-up is stable week to week. That's the good news. The bad news is that both Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie sit well under a 1 rating.
Season to date ratings will be updated mid-week.
MONDAY FALL 2011 ShowBuzz Episode Rating
Estimate #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Dancing 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.1 3.5
1000 Castle 2.6 3.2 3.1 2.6 3.0
CBS
800 How I Met 3.3 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.6
830 2 Broke Girls 3.2 7.1 4.6 4.4 4.5
900 2.5 Men 4.2 10.7 7.4 6.1 8.1
930 Mike & Molly 3.6 4.8 4.3 4.6
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3
NBC
800 The Sing-Off 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8
1000 Playboy Club 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.4
FOX
800 Terra Nova 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.1
900 House 3.3 3.9 3.9
CW
800 Gossip Girl n/a 0.7 0.7 0.7
900 Hart of Dixie n/a 0.8 0.8 0.8
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.
The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS September 26
One of the most highly-anticipated premieres last night (of a show with a long and torturous road through development and on to the air) came and went very quietly. FOX's Terra Nova didn't exactly flop, but it certainly has to be rated a big disappointment. In contrast, CBS has positioned itself as the network to beat Monday nights, as ABC fades and NBC is barely able to make a sound. FOX executives in Century City have to be shaking their heads this morning. With all the promotion, all the off-network marketing, with all the buzz: Terra Nova did a 3.0 rating in its two-hour premiere. The best they can claim is that the night is up from last year, but that comes with a gigantic asterisk. On this same night last year (9.27.2010), FOX averaged a 2.5 rating for the night, but it was really a tale of two shows: House (3.8 rating) and the second -- and final -- episode of Lone Star (1.0 rating). So FOX was able to jump over an incredibly tiny hurdle at 9 pm but badly underperformed at 8 pm. We expect Terra Nova to settle in at around a mid-2 rating in coming weeks, about what we projected for the fall in our ShowBuzzDaily ratings projections.
CBS had all the heat last night. The Eye averaged a killer 4.6 rating for the night -- number one by far. The night was paced by a terrific 7.2 rating for Two and a Half Men and a series high 4.9 for Mike & Molly (which premiered last night). 2 Broke Girls moved to its 8:30 time period with a 4.5, up a tick from the very good 4.4 for How I Met Your Mother. Oh yeah, Hawaii Five-O won its time period at 10 pm with a 3.3, giving CBS wins in each half hour from 8-11 pm. On this night last year, CBS averaged a 3.8 rating: How I Met Your Mother (3.9 rating), Rules of Engagement (3.2), Two and a Half Men (4.8), Mike & Molly (3.7) and Hawaii Five-O (3.6). Executives in Studio City are extremely happy this morning. CBS has to be given the award for Best Scheduling of the young season for the way it rolled out its Monday line-up. Making How I Met Your Mother a one-hour stunt in week one (maximizing its potential) and resisting the temptation to do the same with Two and a Half Men (allowing it to showcase promising newcomer 2 Broke Girls) was brilliant. Then establishing its regular comedy schedule in week two gave it the best of all worlds and time period dominance on Monday nights.
Over in Universal City, NBC executives are going to be morose. The Sing-Off sunk to a 1.7, and The Playboy Club stumbled to a 1.3 in week two (in a race to the bottom with Free Agents), giving NBC a very weak 1.6 for the night. On the second Monday of last season, NBC averaged a 2.3 rating. Chuck started with a 2.0 rating, followed by a 2.9 for The Event, and a 2.1 for Chase. Ultimately, the bottom fell out from both Event and Chase, but NBC would gladly take those ratings today.
ABC executives in Burbank aren't on suicide watch, but they have to be extremely nervous about the Dancing with the Stars franchise. ABC averaged a 3.2 for the night, with Dancing sinking to a 3.3 and Castle doing the best it can do with a diminished lead-in (a 2.9 rating). This night last year, ABC won the night with a 4.1 rating: the 8-9 pm hour of Dancing with the Stars (4.3), the 9-10 pm hour of Dancing (5.2), and Castle (2.8). Things aren't going to get much better for this cycle of Dancing: the cast is the cast.
THE CW got off to a sluggish start with its Monday line-up: both returning Gossip Girl and newcomer Hart of Dixie logged a 0.8 demo rating, about what the network averaged last week.
MONDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Dancing 3.7 3.6 4.0 3.1
900 Dancing 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.4
1000 Castle 2.6 2.6 3.2 2.9
CBS
800 How I Met 3.3 3.3 4.9 4.4
830 2 Broke Girls 3.0 3.2 7.1 4.5
900 2.5 Men 4.1 4.2 10.7 7.2
930 Mike & Molly 3.4 3.6 4.9
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.3
NBC
800 The Sing-Off 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.8
900 The Sing-Off 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.7
1000 Playboy Club 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.3
FOX
800 Terra Nova 2.7 2.5 3.0
900 House 3.4 3.3 10/3
CW
800 Gossip Girl n/a n/a 0.8
900 Hart of Dixie n/a n/a 0.8
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.
THE SKED: MONDAYS This Fall
In one week, the curtain goes up on the new television season. To get you ready for the madness of Premiere Week on broadcast television, we have summarized the ShowBuzzDaily ratings estimates for MONDAYS this Fall. The first column in the chart below includes the original estimates from late May (after the network upfront presentations to advertisers), while the second column includes some tweaks we have made based on the quality of the pilot, our sense of how the series will hold up over time, and reaction to on-air promotion and marketing over the summer.
The main change in our estimates for Monday nights is the reduction of the expected rating for ABC's Dancing with the Stars. Reaction to the casting for this cycle has been rather muted. While we don't expect ratings to crash, the overall numbers should be down a touch. Most of the lost audience ends up on The Sing-Off on NBC according to our estimates, although the NBC numbers remain soft. We have raised the estimates for most of the CBS comedies given the extra attention the addition of Ashton Kutcher has received for Two and a Half Men, as well as the strong promotion for 2 Broke Girls. On FOX, we have reduced the ratings estimate for Terra Nova. While we continue to think the time-traveling, prehistoric family drama will open well, we continue to feel the series is vulnerable and unsustainable.
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.
MONDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Dancing 3.7 3.6
900 Dancing 4.4 4.2
1000 Castle 2.6 2.6
CBS
800 How I Met 3.3 3.3
830 2 Broke Girls 3.0 3.2
900 2.5 Men 4.1 4.2
930 Mike & Molly 3.4 3.6
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7 2.7
NBC
800 The Sing-Off 2.2 2.3
900 The Sing-Off 2.4 2.5
1000 Playboy Club 2.1 2.1
FOX
800 Terra Nova 2.7 2.5
900 House 3.4 3.3
CW
800 Gossip Girl n/a n/a
900 Hart of Dixie n/a n/a
Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:
THE SKED: New Fall Show On-Air Promotion -- Update through August 8
With network on-air promotion activity tracked in hit summer shows (those at or above a 2.0 Adult 18-49 rating) for about three weeks since mid-July, the networks' promotional priorities are summarized below.
FOX continues to heavily promote X-Factor and New Girl at high levels, although Terra Nova has been catching up over the last week. In fact, FOX devoted a full 60-second promo to the prehistoric family drama (emphasizing the family drama aspects) in MasterChef last night. A :60 promo, rarely seen on network TV, is the ultimate sign of commitment and allows the marketing department the time to tell a real story about the series. In addition, X-Factor receives mostly :45 promos, while New Girl has a somewhat higher frequency of spots in the :20 and :30 format.
NBC continues a three-tier approach to its new fall shows. Tier 1 is made up of the new comedies Up All Night and Whitney. Tier 2 are the dramas Prime Suspect and Playboy Club, while Tier 3 is comprised of the comedy Free Agents and The Sing-Off. NBC is using mostly :15 and :30 promo lengths for its new series in each tier.
Over at CBS, Unforgettable and Person of Interest receive the most promo time (with mostly :30 spots), while 2 Broke Girls is assigned a lot of :10 and :20 promos, mostly hammering away at the creative auspices of the show. Friday night's A Gifted Man continues to be an afterthought.
At ABC, Revenge still is the #1 priority, in fact receiving a full :60 spot at the end of Bachelor Pad's premiere last night. Charlie's Angels, Suburgatory and Pan Am come in at a level slightly behind Revenge's, while Sunday night's Once Upon a Time has been a fairly low priority to date. Curiously, although we added Wipeout to the list of program examined this week (a much more male audience than the very female Monday lineup), Tim Allen's Last Man Standing is almost a forgotten, at least in the highly-rated shows we are looking at. However, one would think Last Man would be getting more attention in these 2.0+-rated shows at this point.
Keep checking back each week, as these numbers will be updated cumulatively.
ON-AIR PROMOTION SCORECARD
Fall Series Promos (in seconds)
In Hit Summer Shows since July 19
FOX X-Factor 485
New Girl 485
Terra Nova 400
NBC Up All Night 260
Whitney 235
Prime Suspect 190
Playboy Club 185
Free Agents 105
Sing-Off 90
CBS Unforgettable 160
Person of Interest 150
2 Broke Girls 110
A Gifted Man 30
ABC Revenge 180
Charlie's Angels 120
Suburgatory 120
Pan Am 105
Once Upon a Time 60
Last Man Standing 15
Note: New fall series not listed
have not been promoted in hit summer
shows during this date span.
To see the list of shows in which
promotion activity is tracked, see
the Summer Broadcast Ratings update.
THE SKED: Broadcast Network On-Air Promotion July 20
Last night we had our first look at CBS's current promotional priorities in the one-hour Big Brother at 8:00 pm. With a fairly light on-air promo load, dramas got the lion's share of time: Unforgettable (one :30 spot) and Person of Interest (one :20). 2 Broke Girls was given one :10. The rest of the time went to the new summer show Same Name (one :20 and one :10), a series in which a celebrity and average person with the same name swap lives and learn important lessons. And there were two :15 promos with Julie Chen reminding us that we can get a live feed from the Big Brother bubble 24/7 on CBS.com, one of the most triumphant uses of the Internet to date.
THE SKED: Terra Nova and Other Short Orders
THE SKED: FOX Update
THE SKED PILOT REPORT: FOX's "Terra Nova"
This is--maybe--what a big fat hit looks like. Maybe, because anything can happen between a pilot and its series, or even between episodes (remember when Heroes came back for Season 2 and suddenly it was terrible?)-- especially, as here, where only the first hour of the 2-hour pilot exists, and even that hour has some temp special effects. So TERRA NOVA is far from a sure thing. But it sure has the makings of a show that could hit the mass TV audience right in its sweet spot.
What if Jurassic Park were a housing development? That's essentially the basis for Terra Nova, although actually the two concepts take place in completely different earthly time frames: Jurassic imagined the contemporary reanimation of dinosaurs, while in Terra Nova, people of a dystopian future are transported back millions of years to live in the era when dinos were native. But both projects take place in and around similar-looking complexes built to keep the carnosaurs out, and both, not coincidentally, have Steven Spielberg as wizard in charge.
The script (lots of people worked on it, including Rene Echevarria, Allan Loeb, Brannon Braga, Craig Silverstein and Kelly Marcel--it's not clear yet just who's getting screen credit) isn't smarter than your average Hollywood blockbuster-it's not Game of Thrones, and it's not Battlestar Galactica--but it's cunningly constructed to allow for plenty of potential storylines. Despite his criminal record, Jim quickly proves his worth to the leader of the community, Nathaniel Taylor (Stephen Lang), and joins his security service; soon Jim discovers there are other settlers from the future trying to sabotage the project. Meanwhile, there's the Shannons' shaky marriage, their kids' budding romances, giant man-eating beasts, and where did those strange designs outside the Terra Nova walls come from?
Alex Graves, whose credits include the pilot for Fringe, serves as director, and even with temp effects, Terra Nova has the scale and energy of a feature film, with gorgeous cinematography and a huge production design. (Just what will happen when the show has to deal with inevitably smaller episodic budgets is unclear.) The cast is capable, with the early standout being Lang, who does a less blatantly evil version of his Avatar role (it won't be much of a surprise if his character turns out to be less than a good guy here, too). For now, the Shannon family is basically photogenic and personable; there's so much going on in the pilot that we only get a superficial handle on them.
FOX could have paired Terra Nova with their new X-Factor for a superpowered launch, but they have so much confidence in the show that they're letting it kick off their Monday nights as the lead-in to House. The gamble may pay off; the show has potential to be an "all quadrants" smash, appealing to families, men and women, young and old. (Mitch Metcalf's Monday projection has it behind ABC's Dancing With the Stars and the How I Met Your Mother/2 Broke Girls combo on CBS, but the show will certainly be hyped by FOX into a major premiere event, and it could be a breakout hit.) The dinosaur-sized question now is whether they can successfully translate their strong hour into a successful series.
Read more about TV's new shows at THE SKED PILOT REPORT.





