Movie Box Review

For the past several weeks, "season low" and "down sharply from last year" have been repeated phrases in our daily ratings posts, mostly for broadcast network programs but also for cable programs, as well.  What's going on here?  After all, this season started in a very promising fashion with the combined audience for the four major broadcast networks even with the prior season, an almost impossible feat given the the ever increasing media fragmentation in today's world. 

To take a broad view, we looked at the season in three distinct parts, summarized in the table below.  In the first part of the television season (the first 11 weeks from September 19-December 4), ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX combined for a 10.4 Adult 18-49 rating in prime time, exactly the same rating as the comparable period in 2010.  Then from December through most of January, the broadcast networks were pacing 4% behind the 2010-11 season, a decline more in line with past decade or so.  Nothing to worry about, most thought.  But then in late January up until now, the decline in network TV viewing has really picked up steam, pushing a double-digit rate.


            4-Network (ABC CBS NBC FOX) 
      Prime Time Adult 18-49 Combined Rating

                      2011-12  2010-11  % chg
     Sep 19-Dec  4     10.4     10.4      0%
     Dec  5-Jan 22      9.0      9.4     -4%
     Jan 23-Mar  4     10.2     11.1     -9%


To get an idea of the pace of change, the chart below shows the yearly decline in network television viewing for each week of the season to date.  In the first part of the season, there were a few up weeks and a few down weeks but the magnitude of the differences generally were quite small (mostly under 5%).  More recently, however, the weekly swings have become much more pronounced: more in the 10% or even 15%+ range and predominantly on the negative side.

GCB and the Oscars are the big bets for ABC in recent days, while NBC continues to make an extraordinary push for Awake.  CBS is hoping to take Person of Interest to another level, and FOX just doesn't seem to be making any choices about what to promote hard.  The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 9 and 23, with about 18.5 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABC.  GCB has become the top priority for ABC over the past few weeks, now averaging 21 seconds per hour sampled in prime time.  ABC has been repeating the same 30-second spot over and over (the rhyming spot with "witches" and "riches" instead of the expected "bitches" from the original series title).  The spot is not particularly clever, but ABC is hoping the repetition of the show's premise will cut through.  With a last minute rush of Oscar spots (often over 30 seconds per hour on recent nights), the Academy Awards spots have moved into the #2 priority position, averaging 17 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (after being in the high single digits recently).  Of note, the spots promote the Oscar app and Oscar.com almost as much as the show itself.  (Clips of the still niche The Artist and visuals of Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo are not going to persuade marginal viewers to tune in.)  Revenge remains a fairly important priority (16 seconds per hour), as ABC keeps trying to make it break out  from the 2.5 range into the high-2 rating area.  Scandal is now averaging 11 seconds an hour (up sharply from the middle single digits).  That number is going to continue to rise as we move through March.  Missing (starring Ashley Judd as a CIA agent/ mom searching for her son) is holding at 9 seconds per hour.  It looks like it has the production quality of The Firm, and -- just a hunch -- will not receive much higher promotion levels in coming weeks, as opposed to the Shonda Rhimes project Scandal.

NBC.  Awake premiering next Thursday at 10 in the dead zone time period is now averaging an amazing 41 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  If it fails it won't be for lack of trying.  With Up All Night as its lead in, Awake's success will be based on the inherent appeal of the show's premise, which is described in every spot.  We shall see.  Smash is holding at a very strong 25 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  As the ratings tumble each week (and during each quarter hour that airs), the network is trying every promo trick in the book to get people to hang on.  Last week it was the sex appeal of the characters and storylines.  This week, it's a guest star -- Nick Jonas?!?  Maybe he has a high Q-score with the target audience for a drama about mounting a Broadway musical, but it seems a little desperate or cheesy for a show that relies on critic quotes like "Wow.  Just wow."  Fashion Star is holding at 20 seconds per hour, a very solid level for a new reality show.  The Voice, at 10 seconds per hour, is just enough to keep its name out there, and NBC is using the brief promos effectively to dub the night "Must See Monday".  (At least for the first two hours of the night, it's a very legitimate claim.) 


CBS.  Person of Interest has been anointed by CBS as the new show most worthy of a midseason push.  At 21 seconds per hour the past two weeks, the JJ Abrams-produced freshman number is the #1 priority for the network, which clearly want to see if its ratings can break out of the low-3 range to above a 3.5 rating.  Undercover Boss has received a substantial investment of time the past several nights, moving its average into double digits (11 seconds per hour).  That is low compared to Survivor (19 seconds) and Amazing Race (17), but it is significant for a Friday show, and CBS hopes it can build on the show's promising initial ratings on the tough night.  Just missing the chart below is Late Show with David Letterman (9 seconds per hour), substantially more than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno (5 seconds) or Jimmy Kimmel Live (3 seconds).  Unless the guest is truly newsworthy, however, late night ratings are surprisingly inelastic to promo efforts.   


FOX.  Breaking In has edged up to 12 seconds per hour, up from 10 recently.  And the return of Touch is at a barely-committed 10 seconds per hour.  And pity poor Bob's Burgers (not shown on the chart below) whose return is starting with a base of 6 seconds per hour.  Not that any of those shows will make much of an impact in any scenario -- it's just that FOX doesn't seem to be betting on anything.   



                          PROMO WATCH

American Idol continue to flounder.  Just when we thought the Wednesday edition could hold the line at a 6 rating, it now appears that a 5 rating could be the benchmark.  Idol is no longer hearing the footsteps of The Voice; it is watching Adam, Cee Lo, Blake and Christina definitely leaping ahead.  But before NBC gets too excited about its Monday night, it has a series of trainwrecks on other nights, including a disastrous Wednesday.


             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Wednesday    FOX    CBS    ABC    NBC
02.22.2012   5.1    2.9    2.4    1.2    THIS WEEK
02.15.2012   6.1    2.9    2.8    1.3    LAST WEEK
02.23.2011   7.9    2.9    2.3    1.5    LAST YEAR



FOX's American Idol took a big hit, tumbling a full rating point from last week to a 5.1 preliminary 18-49 rating.  (In the official nationals Idol will probably go up up to a 5.2 -- but still a pretty serious drop.)  Idol started slowly at 8:00 and built at 8:30 but didn't continue the growth much in the 9:00 and 9:30 half hours: 4.5... 5.2... 5.2... 5.4.  Last year on this night, American Idol aired for two hours (7.9), starting at a 6.9 in the 8:00 half hour and peaking at an 8.5 in the 9:30 half hour.        

NBC had a terrific Monday after the Super Bowl, taking full advantage of the most-watched program in TV history to establish The Voice on its new night and deliver a solid opening for Smash.  However, there was significant tune-out over the course of the new Broadway drama, suggesting the audience for the show might settle down in coming weeks.  But The Voice is on its way to upsetting the balance of power on the first night of the television week.