Movie Box Review

The Martin Luther King holiday weekend, a relatively small one for Hollywood because many people work on Monday, begins.

UNIVERSAL: The studio made the fairly extraordinary decision to sit out the holiday movie season entirely, presumably because they didn't think any of their product could compete.  They did, however, spend a lot of money marketing CONTRABAND, which wouldn't open for a month.  The effort paid off with an extremely solid Friday that could lead to a 4-day weekend approaching $30M.  But all that advertising was pricey, and the picture will have to achieve a substantial total to make it worthwhile.  It should help that the movie is quite entertaining, leading to good word-of-mouth (although there are quite a few action movies arriving as competition in the coming weeks).

DISNEY:  The studio's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST had a well-chosen release date, a holiday when the holiday family movies (including Disney's own War Horse) are running out of steam but the other studios aren't getting involved.  The result is a $25M+ 4-day weekend that will pay for the minimal cost of the 3D transfer and also feed sales of the new homevideo edition.  

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE was hoping to hit the holiday's family audience too, but so far it's not working out so well.  With a 4-day weekend unlikely to reach $15M, the picture will have to hope for good word-of-mouth (which the faith-based audience sometimes provides) to stay in theatres for a while.  And the studio has stuck doggedly to its strategy on EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which will finally expand next week, and which is still earning a very good $15K in each of the 6 theatres where it started on Christmas Day.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY expanded well to 800 theatres, and should have a per-theatre number for Friday-Sunday (plus a little extra for the Monday holiday) comparable to the one Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy had when it did the same expansion a week ago.  The picture will be hoping, of course, for a Meryl Streep victory at the Golden Globes on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the studio is playing a bit of a shell game with THE ARTIST, increasing the theatre count (to 216) just enough so that the weekend total (around $1.1-1.2M) stays steady, even as the per-theatre figure falls by 20%.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, which lost almost one-third of its theatres this week, badly needs Michelle Williams to win the Comedy Actress Golden Globe.  (Don't ask how that movie is a "comedy".)

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE expanded to 494 theatres, but will need major Golden Globe help to keep those screens very long.  It's headed for a $1500 per-theatre average.  

HOLDOVERS:  Nobody who saw THE DEVIL INSIDE (Paramount) last weekend could look at themselves in the mirror this week, and the result should be one of the 10-15 largest 2d weekend drops in history (and it would have been worse if Sunday hadn't been part of a holiday weekend).  That was by far the most dramatic drop, with the holiday movies aimed at adults looking at 30-40% declines, and the family movies getting a Sunday advanrage from the holiday for a 10-25% fall.  YOUNG ADULT (Paramount), though, gave up the ghost (unless Charlize Theron pulls out an upset Globe win), losing more than half its theatres. 

LIMITED RELEASES:    PARIAH (Focus) expanded to 24 theatres and should do an OK $5K average.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) expanded to 18 and should do a less OK $3K in each.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) returned from its holiday-week awards-eligibility run to 1 NY theatre, where the buzz on Tilda Swinton's performance and local raves should get it to $50K over the long weekend.  

The boxoffice did more or less what it was supposed to on Wednesday, drifting down 5-10% from Tuesday.  Thursday should be fairly steady, then business should have a bit of a roller-coaster ride:  an increase on Friday, down somewhat on New Year's Eve, back up on New Year's Day, and down again on January 2, before collapsing when everyone goes back to work on Wednesday.  

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount), ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) and SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) remained at the top of the day (Alvin nosing ahead of Sherlock on Wednesday), and here are some other highlights:

PARIAH (Focus):  One of the last pictures to enter 2011's awards hunt is this low-budget, well-reviewed independent film.  It got off to a fine start in 4 theatres with a $5500 average.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  Still hasn't found bottom, with another 11% drop from Tuesday, at the higher end of the day's declines.  It's unlikely to reach $50M by the end of the holidays, and the numbers only go down after that.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to enjoy its few days of glory, with a 4% increase on Wednesday.  There's only $38M in the bank so far, though, and 3 more days before it literally becomes last year's news, so none of it means much.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  A 11% Wednesday increase was the first good news this picture has had, lifting it to $5200 per theatre in 6.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  The adult audience also came out for this one with a 10% hike to a $1600 average in 3.

No new wide openings this weekend, but limited releases include the 2 final Oscar contenders of the year:  Meryl Streep's turn as Margaret Thatcher in THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), and Iran's Foreign-Language Film hopeful A SEPARATION (Sony Classics).

Be sure to  read Mitch Metcalf's New Year's Weekend Predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holidays for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

Anyone who thinks the boxoffice isn't in a slump needs a new prescription for bifocals.

Note:  since December 24 is a traditionally deadly day at the boxoffice (closed theatres, family plans)  that would make 3-day weekend estimates look even worse than they are, we'll use 4 day Friday-Monday weekend estimates below.

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Its 6th place start with $3M in 3100 theatres (a lousy $952 average for the day) is terribly disappointing, and the picture is unlikely to have any impact at all on the holiday boxoffice.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  A crucially important first expansion for a movie that hopes to take the Best Picture Oscar, and it went horribly.  Moving from 17 theatres to 167, the film could only manage a $1400 average on Friday that will probably be around $7500 over all 4 days of the long weekend.  Will it ultimately matter to the Oscar race?  We'll see.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Another disastrous expansion for an Oscar hopeful, this time from 358 to 602 moviehouses.  The Friday average was a pathetic $280, and it probably won't get to $1500 over the 4-day weekend.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus):  Finally a glimmer of good news, as the expansion from 16 to 53 theatres went well:  Friday's average of $3900 should translate into close to $30K over 4 days.

ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside):  An awards hopeful for Glenn Close and Janet McTeer, this is playing a 1-week Oscar qualifying run in just 2 theatres, and its mediocre $3500 average start probably means less than $25K in each theatre over the long weekend.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  Another Oscar hopeful (this one Angelina Jolie's parade of Bosnian wartime atrocities, already nominated for a Foreign-Language Golden Globe), another weak opening:  in 3 theatres, its $2200 average on Friday probably means $15K over the holiday weekend.

Back to the world of wide releases:

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  The one and only success story for Hollywood this season (Paramount gets credit for the 2 smartest distribution decisions of the year:  the IMAX "previews" of MI4, and pushing back the opening of Puss In Boots), and yet even this one carries some disappointment:  the picture is unlikely to make as much as MI2's $215M, and may end up only outgrossing the third chapter of the series.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners);  Headed for a US gross 20-30% lower than the first in the series.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  Although with its hard-R rating and "The Feel-Bad Movie of the Holidays" spirit, this picture has excuses the other disappointments lack, the fact it it's just not doing the business that its pedigree (and $90-100M production budget) promised.  It may not even reach $100M total gross in the US.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  It's very nice that the film did well overseas, but it was wildly expensive, and its likely $80M US gross won't even pay for its domestic marketing campaign, let alone any of the production cost.  With a global outlook little better than break-even, Spielberg and Jackson certainly have to do some thinking before launching the projected Jackson-directed 2d chapter in the planned franchise.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Another damaged franchise, with a total that could end up at half or even less of its predecessors.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  Even with an extra holiday in the weekend, most will be lucky to break even from last weekend, and some (NEW YEAR'S EVE, HUGO) are falling considerably more.  YOUNG ADULT (Paramount) is in particularly dire straits, finding no audience at all with what may be a 40% slide despite the long weekend.  

And then there were 2, or really 1 1/2:  on Christmas Day, Steven Spielberg's WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) will attempt to ride in and save the holidays, while Summit's THE DEADLIEST HOUR gathers up what small change remains in the sofa cushions.  Also opening is the bizarrely controversial EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), in an exclusive 6-theatre run.

Today we wind up SHOWBUZZDAILY's introduction of this year's most promising Oscar contenders (see Part 1 here and Part 2 here, looking at those that could be called Also Eligible--they're hoping just to get in the race.

Also Eligible

SHAME (Fox Searchlight - Dec. 2)

Good Bet: Nobody who's seen this very serious film about sexuality will forget it anytime soon.  Michael Fassbinder is art-house flavor of the month, Carey Mulligan is an awards magnet, and the NC-17 rating guarantees plenty of attention.

Bad Bet: A difficult, polarizing piece of work that may not be up the Academy's alley.

LIKE CRAZY (Paramount - Oct. 28)

Good Bet: This year's Sundance darling.  One of the very rare films to tackle the ups and downs of romance believably.

Bad Bet:  Sundance was a looooong time ago.  A lot of people hate the ending.  Perhaps because it doesn't have subtitles, some critics consider it insubstantial.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  General acclaim for Michelle Williams as Monroe.  Harvey moved it from early November to super-competitive Thanksgiving weekend, so he's not lacking in confidence.

Bad Bet:  Feels like more of an acting category push than Best Picture.

THE IDES OF MARCH (Sony - Released Oct. 7)

Good Bet:  A weighty subject, strong cast, and everyone loves Clooney.

Bad Bet:  The Descendants will get the bulk of the Clooney love.  The reviews were favorable but not raves.  Although its low budget should make it profitable, the picture doesn't seem to have ignited the zeitgeist.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict - Dec. 23)

Good Bet: Director Angelina Jolie guarantees huge press attention.  Subjects don't come more serious than sexual politics amid the carnage of Bosnia.

Bad Bet:  Buzz says a heavy, depressing sit with lots of script issues.  Shame may steal the season's sexuality thunder.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount/DreamWorks - Dec. 21)

Good Bet:  Spielberg and Peter Jackson blazing new trails in fantasy and technology!  Initial reviews from overseas (where it opens 2 months earlier) are raves.

Bad Bet:  War Horse exists.  At least in the trailer, those damn motion capture humans still look creepy.

ANONYMOUS (Sony - Oct. 28)

Good Bet:  Shakespeare In Love was very much the Academy's cup of tea.

Bad Bet:  This one lacks the romance, the humor and the charming lead performers.  Roland Emmerich as an Oscar nominee?

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th Century Fox - Dec. 23)

Good Bet:  A crowd-pleaser from Cameron Crowe that could put his career back on track.  Star performances from Matt Damon, Scarlett Johansson and Thomas Haden Church.  Look, adorable animals!

Bad Bet: Buzz is that it's better than Marley & Me, but not by as much as you'd think.  You need to read the credits to realize it's a Crowe picture.

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) (Warner Bros - Released July 15)

Good Bet:  The well-received final chapter of the most successful movie franchise in history.  The last Lord of the Rings bathed in Oscar glory.

Bad Bet:  The entire LOTR saga was directed by Peter Jackson, so it felt like a more unified artistic work.  Timing is no ally:  the LOTR films opened at Christmas, and their phenomenal success unfolded just as the Academy was making its choices; Hallows will be out on homevideo in a few weeks.  Warners has J. Edgar and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close on its Oscar plate.  The filmmakers will just have to be content with their billions.