Movie Box Review

We'll see if SUPER 8 gets to $40M, but in any case Paramount has done the season's best job of managing expectations.  Considering that they've been throwing millions into promoting the movie since the Super Bowl, the idea that the lowest action opening of the summer is somehow good news is a beautiful piece of spin.  Remember that although Super 8 is low-budget by blockbuster standards, it still carries the typical $150M+ in worldwide marketing costs, which puts profit a distance away.--and the B+ average it got from Cinemascore is nothing to sing about, especially since the opening night audience for this should have been pure fanbase.

The X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS hold is disappointing.  This is a high-quality movie that should have benefitted from strong word of mouth, but the combination of the 1960s setting and the no-star cast seems to have turned some audiences off.  It could wind up as the lowest-grossing title in its franchise.

Similarly, Hangover, Kung Fu Panda and Pirates are all heading for the lowest grosses (domestically) of their respective series, although Kung Fu had a nice 3rd week hold--deservedly so.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS saw its per-theatre number come down to earth to around $5500 as it expanded swiftly to nearly 1000 screens--but I'm sure Woody Allen isn't complaining, since even with average holds, it should match Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point as one of his most successful films of the past 25 years.

TREE OF LIFE is expanding more slowly, up to only 47 theatres, and it's holding pretty firmly at around $17K per theatre.  Same for BEGINNERS, which inched up to 19 theatres and should do around $12K in each.  

THE HANGOVER PART II seems to be headed for the 4th highest Memorial Day opening of all time, behind only Pirates 3, Indiana Jones 4 and X-Men 3--and at less than half the budget of any of them.  Unlike all 3 of those, it should have good word of mouth, being a classic example of the difference between critics (not this particular critic in this instance, but generally) and audiences:  the critics were completely right in saying that Hangover 2 was simply a remake of Hangover 1, but audiences had no problem with getting back on the same rollercoaster they enjoyed the first time.  Also, the picture faces no comedy competition until Bad Teacher on June 24, so it has a solid month of boxoffice coming.

KUNG FU PANDA 2 is also in good shape for a long run, as there are no family movies opening until Mr. Popper's Penguins on June 17, and nothing animated until Cars 2 on June 24.  Panda is running about even with the original Madagascar, which also opened on Memorial Day weekend, but the Kung Fu number includes an extra day in the market (Madagascar opened on Friday instead of Thursday) and 3D premiums, so the number is undoubtedly a little softer than DreamWorks was hoping. 

It looks as though PIRATES 4 may struggle even to reach $250M at the domestic boxoffice, an amazing comedown from the $309M that Pirates 3 made, especially when 3D is factored in.  Although it got off to a roaring start internationally, we'll see in Mitch Metcalf's column later this week if it's running out of steam overseas as well.  With a production and marketing cost of around $450M, a global gross of $750M wouldn't be all that great for this franchise.  (An interesting sidenote:  while the earlier Pirates movies were bought for cable TV by USA Network, this one has been purchased by ABC Family, which means instead of fresh cash, it's just ABC/Disney shuffling money from one pocket to another.)

BRIDESMAIDS (and here is where this particular critic was way off) is now on track to gross as much as Superbad, which would make it the 2d biggest hit ever out of the Judd Apatow empire.

In Hollywood, the word "sequel" is often code for "remake."  This isn't news:  the James Bond series has been going on for almost 50 years, and allowing for the occasional change in cast and some fluctuation in quality, it's pretty much been the same movie repeated over and over again (Hey look, it's Q with the gadgets!).  So one can't really blame Warner Bros and director Todd Phillips for essentially duplicating their giant success with The Hangover ($467M worldwide) 2 years later by giving us the putative sequel THE HANGOVER PART II.

And by duplicate, I mean a copy so close to the original that if they didn't already own the copyright, the filmmakers could be sued for infringement.  Not only is Phillips back as director and co-writer (this time with Craig Mazin and Scot Armstrong) and the core cast (Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms, Zach Galifianakis, Justin Bartha, Ken Jeong) reassembled, not only is the basic storyline the same, but the "changes" are basically just swaps of one detail for another.  The only real difference is one of location; with an eye to the international market (the first film only made 41% of its total gross overseas--come on, guys, Warners must have said, you can do better!), we're in Bangkok instead of Vegas.  But it almost doesn't matter, since the cities are used in exactly the same way, for their linked associations with outrageous excess and dirty secrets. 

The groom-to-be this time is Stu (Helms), who's marrying a Thai-American girl, the Heather Graham character from Hangover having vanished.  Phil (Cooper) is again the swinging ringleader of the group, and Alan (Galifianakis) the odd man-child who's along for the ride and incapable of keeping himself under control.  Again a spare member of the pre-wedding group goes missing, although this time it's the bride's brother (Mason Lee)--but the movie is so intent on following the original slavishly that Doug (Bartha), the original lost boy, is still kept off-screen for most of the film.  Where the first movie had the gang saddled with an unknown baby, this time it's a monkey; where Stu suffered knocked-out teeth 2 years ago, now he's got a Tyson-like facial tattoo.  They've upped the ante on the transgressive act involving one of them, but deleted the good-natured hint of romance that Graham's hooker provided in the original.  Jeong is again semi-nude and outrageous, Helms provides new lyrics for a song... I could go on; suffice it to say that the script here was less an act of creative writing than an exercise in painting-by-numbers.

None of this makes Hangover II bad--after all, there's a reason they're still churning out Bond movies after 50 years.  The cast continues to be terrific together, and even where the story beats are predictable, the little twists and reactions (particularly from Galifianakis) make them work.  Also, Phillips is one of the few current comedy directors to have a strong sense of visual style; his work with cinematographer Lawrence Sher is atmospheric and handsome (compared to Bridesmaids, Hangover II practically looks like Barry Lyndon).  The picture has the benefit of the same crackerjack story structure as the original, so it meanders and drifts far less than films from the Apatow school of comedies do.  It's all just a little tired.  Watching the film with a sold-out crowd, there's surprisingly little loud laughter, and what there is seems to be expressing fond familiarity more than the surprising hilarity of the first film.

Because the differences between the movies are so minute, after a while one watches Hangover II for the tonal changes that occasionally appear--it's like going to see a favorite band play a live show, and hearing a new riff in one of their old hits.  There are brief moments in this film that suggest a darker, even deeper story about friendship and manhood could have emerged, bits where the picture almost seems ready to suggest that these guys aren't the easygoing heroes we know, and that they might genuinely not like each other all that much.  But those kinds of implications are bad for business, and Hangover is a franchise.  Maybe in Hangover V (set in Rio?), we can look forward to a revisionist reboot.

Here at ShowbuzzDaily, we like to think that we're smarter than anyone else.  But more importantly, we like to think we're smarter than each other.  So the two of us here (Mitch Metcalf and your humble narrator Mitch Salem) decided to pick our own slates of summer movies to compete against each other, each of us stubborn in the belief that our list of films will, by Labor Day, outgross the total US boxoffice of the other's. 

We followed the general draft rules used by pro sports leagues (when they're not mid-strike or -lockout):  Mitch M graciously gave me the first pick, and then we alternated through 2 dozen movies that will be opening between May 6 and August 12.  At the traditional end of the summer season on Labor Day, one of us will have bragging rights and the other will have to call the winner "Mr. Mitch"--at least until it's time for the Holiday Blockbuster Draft in November.

Here's a transcript of our choices, cleansed of four-letter words and threats of violence.  Remember to check back here every week for an update on who's ahead and who's Mitch Metcalf.  (I kid, I kid.)

MS:  I'll start with the obvious.  HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (July 15), aka Harry Potter 8.  It's a rock-solid franchise, and this is the final chapter in a story that's been followed for more than a decade by millions of fans--plus it's in 3D.  Go Gryffindor!

MM:  TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON (July 1).  Summer is all about heat and blowing stuff up.  Plus there's always room for the art of Michael Bay!

MS:  PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES (May 20).  Audiences love them some Johnny Depp on a pirate ship, and even though the last installment was awful, this time there's Penelope Cruz and those tasty 3D ticket premiums.

MM:  KUNG FU PANDA 2 (May 26).  The theme of franchises continues.  Since I just missed Jack Sparrow (aaarrghh! or however one spells that pirate utterance), I'll go with the lovable Jack Black.  Besides, the ads promise it's "Kung Fu-ier"!

MS:  I guess this is why Hollywood worships franchises.  At least THE HANGOVER PART 2 (May 26) isn't a superhero or a cartoon.  The R rating makes a rare appearance in the list of top grossers (heavy on the "gross").

MM:  CARS 2 (June 24).  OK, now I'm pissed.  Hangover 2 was my next pick because it has explosive potential if it's half as good as the original (I hear it's actually going to deliver).  Oh well, I also have confidence in Pixar.  It's just not as cool...

MS:  I'm proud to announce the first non-sequel pick of this draft:  JJ Abrams' (not to mention Steven Spielberg's) SUPER 8 (June 10).  It already has the best trailer of the summer.

MM:  COWBOYS & ALIENS (July 29).  OK, Salem, this is really getting annoying.  Conventional wisdom has other sequels ahead of Super 8, but it will probably be the one that surprises the most and could seal my draft fate.  Well played.  In the vein of explosions and with a "your peanut butter's in my chocolate" combination of genres, I am betting this one delivers popcorn fun. 

MS:  Cowboys & Aliens probably has the most intriguing premise of the summer blockbusters, so it could get that late summer Inception audience... if it works.  Now that we're past the sure things, I'm taking X MEN:  FIRST CLASS (June 3), a reboot that doesn't include any of the original cast, but has a group of really strong actors (James McAvoy!  Michael Fassbender!  Jennifer Lawrence!  January Jones!  Rose Byrne!) plus Matthew Vaughn, the director of Kick-Ass.

MM:  CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Now it does get interesting.  Despite some disappointing TV commercials (that need to be improved), I'm going with the jingoistic ring of the title.  As oppposed to Green Lantern, which many will think was already released this winter with Seth Rogen in the lead.

MS:  I agree, Captain America looks better than Green Lantern--I'm just not sure that's saying much.  I'm going back to the future with RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (August 5).  It's a risk, because the last one wasn't that long ago (and wasn't that good), and it stars James Franco, who suddenly doesn't look like the next big thing... but early glimpses of the CG apes are awfully impressive.

MM:  THOR (May 6).  Now is the time we'd like to be flies on the wall in studio screening rooms.  Not even to see the films themselves, just the expressions on the executive's faces.  I'm betting Thor's well-reviewed story will push it over the top.  Or it just might be, well, over the top.  Looking forward to your take in Friday's review.

MS:  I'm a few hours away from seeing Thor--and suddenly not rooting for it so hard.  I'm going to radically switch genres and hope the Hangover audience still has an appetite for some summer raunch:  BAD TEACHER (June 24), with Cameron Diaz as the titular civil servant.

MM:  That would put her back on the map.  My next pick is ZOOKEEPER (July 8).  It's got animals galore and Kevin James, who has delivered before (Paul Blart).

MS:  Damn, that was going to be my next one--I agree, Zookeeper's in a great position to hit the sweet spot with its target audience.  Ah well... I think we're both united in not thinking much of GREEN LANTERN's (June 17) prospects as superhero movies go, but still it's a big-time 3D spectacle, so it's going to make some dough.  I'm just glad it's Warners and not us who'll be worrying about matching the green lantern with the red ink.

MM:  I'm going to dip my toe into the romantic comedy waters with LARRY CROWNE (July 1).  Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, with Hanks also co-writing and directing.  What could possibly go wrong?  I know, I know--everything.  But we shall see.

MS:  Leading my personal list of "Do I really have to see this?" summer movies, but still likely to draw in some kids (and stoners):  THE SMURFS (July 29).

MM:   I'm going with BRIDESMAIDS (May 13), hoping it's the female Hangover. I know it won't be, but I'm still bitter about losing the real sequel and am not thinking clearly.

MS:  In the same genre, I'm taking FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (July 22), the red-band version of No Strings Attached.  It's directed by Will Gluck, who made the sleeper hit Easy A last fall, and maybe lightning will strike twice.

MM:  Which Steve Carell will show up in CRAZY STUPID LOVE (July 29)?  In the right vehicle he's incredibly appealing.  Otherwise he's dead weight in clunkers.  I'm voting for the former (admittedly knowing very little about the film).

MS:  August is a strange month to launch a weighty historical movie that might want to be remembered at awards time.  But I'm going to take a shot that the fans who kept THE HELP (August 12) on bestseller lists for 2 years will come out to support it as a film.

MM:  I'm going to go with a subject we all know something about:  HORRIBLE BOSSES (July 8).  Enough said.

MS: True enough.  With my last pick, I'm taking Jesse Eisenberg, Danny McBride and Aziz Ansari in 30 MINUTES OR LESS (August 12) and hoping for the best.  Which I believe leaves you with...

MM:  MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS (June 17)!  Oh hooray.  The lamest title on the slate, and it's all mine.  Really feels like a Jim Carrey stinker.  Well, this has actually been fun.  On to the summer!

To summarize, here are our summer slates:

Remember to check back here every week for an update on our scores!