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Showing posts with label smash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label smash. Show all posts

The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- through March 8

The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between March 4 and March 8, with about 10 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABCMissing has become the top promotional priority for ABC over the past week, now running at about 38 seconds per hour.  GCB receded to a still substantial 33 seconds per hour, with promos trumpeting its premiere viewership Sunday.  Some promos mentioned "11 million viewers fell in love", while others said "18 million viewers watched".  The first number refers to the average audience in any given minute, and the second measures who many people saw at least a few minutes of the show (the "total audience").  Rather than throwing two numbers around, why not pick one and stick with it?  Don't Trust the Bitch in Apt 23 and Scandal are up from previous weeks, now at 18 and 15 seconds, respectively. 

NBCFashion Star increased to 37 seconds per hour over the past week, clearly the #1 promo priority for the struggling network.  Awake has been dialed back to 24 seconds per hour, promoting the second episode and referencing the show's premiere performance.  Rather than saying a number, NBC said "millions were thrilled".  
        
CBSPerson of Interest increased again this past week to 28 seconds per hour.  The episode (featuring a cute baby and a "two men and a baby" theme in the promos) was one of the few original episodes on CBS among a sea of repeats, and the on-air promotion paid off as Person of Interest edged past its previous season high.  Big Bang Theory, also an original episode, moved into the top priority list, up to 11 seconds per hour after bumping around the 5-6 second range in recent weeks.  .      


FOXBob's Burgers, returning Sunday, moved up to 22 seconds per hour -- as heavy a commitment as FOX has given recently.  .     



                          PROMO WATCH

                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled
                    Past Week (Mar 4-8, 2011)

      ABC                          CBS
     Missing            38        Person of Interest 28
     GCB                33        Survivor           14
     Don't Trust the B  18        Good Wife          13
     Dancing w Stars    17        Big Bang Theory    11
     Scandal            15        Undercover Boss    11
     Once Upon a Time   11

     NBC                          FOX
     Fashion Star       37        Bob's Burgers      22
     Awake              24        Breaking In        11
     Smash              19        American Idol       9
     The Voice          14        New Girl            9
     Harry's Law        11        Alcatraz            9
    

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





SMASHWatch is grinning this morning, but should it be?

NBC:  Airing against repeats on both of the other networks, SMASH was up a big 0.4 to 2.7, a healthy number for any 10PM drama these days.  So... yay?  Maybe, but the show itself continues to get markedly worse, moving with near-rocket speed from "potential Emmy contender" to "disappointing" to just plain "not good."  Smash, very sadly, is becoming a collection of unbelievable characters, unmotivated bitchfest scenes and bad, on-the-nose dialogue, with increasingly painful plot developments (was it just me, or did last night's final sequence suggest the writers had been watching "On the Street Where You Live" from My Fair Lady on Autorepeat?).  But I digress:  the rating was, no question about it, very good.  Apart from the ABC/CBS repeats, it helped that lead-in THE VOICE was also up 0.7 from last week, confirming its new place as the big bad reality show of the season.


FOX:  2 hours of ALCATRAZ matched its series low at 1.8, coming in below not just the new programming on NBC and ABC, but the repeat sitcoms on CBS.  (If anyone can make sense of the mythology on this show, congratulations.  Although Parminder Nagra will never have a better job, since for half the season she's been collecting a paycheck for lying comatose in an infirmary bed.)

ABCTHE BACHELOR, airing the last episode before its season finale, continued at a very steady 2.5 (every episode this year has scored within a 0.3 ratings window), and was followed by a CASTLE rerun.

CBS:  An all-repeat night.  Notably, all the sitcoms were down 20-30% from their January repeats in the pre-Voice era.  HAWAII 5-0 won the 10PM rerun battle with Castle, although both were far behind Smash.  

CW:  A frankly weird night of repeat numbers.  AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL was just 0.1 below the original airing of the same episode last week (and dead even with last Monday's new episode of GOSSIP GIRL), and the repeat HART OF DIXIE was only 0.1 behind last week's new episode.

Tonight, FOX debuts its 4-sitcom line-up, with RAISING HOPE moving to 8PM, I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER returning at 8:30PM, and the season premiere of BREAKING IN following a very good episode of NEW GIRL at 9:30PM.  CBS is the only network in repeats, although ABC will toss a rerun of BODY OF PROOF on at 10PM.  

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The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS March 5

With the February sweep over, we enter the treacherous March/April period, where more than half the time periods on the broadcast networks have repeat episodes on any given week.  Having originals is a distinct advantage in this time, and NBC was ready with an all-new Monday.  The Voice surged back, and Smash had a very promising outing.

 
               Nightly Primetime Average
Monday         NBC     CBS     ABC     FOX
03.05.2012     4.8     1.8     2.1     1.9    THIS WEEK
02.27.2012     4.4     3.2     2.4     4.5    LAST WEEK
03.07.2011     2.1     2.4     2.8     3.9    LAST YEAR

NBC had a very good night by offering all originals against many repeats on the other networks.  The Voice rebounded to a 6.1 rating (5.8 in the 8:00 hour and 6.3 in the 9:00 hour).  And the good news continued at 10:00 pm with Smash turning in a 2.7 rating, almost matching its second week rating, taking full advantage of its Voice lead-in and the repeat competition on ABC and CBS (Hawaii Five-O at a 1.5 and Castle at a 1.4).  Last year on this night: The Event 8-10 pm (2.0) and Harry's Law (2.3).      

NBC Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05
The Voice      6.7  6.0       6.7  6.0  6.0  5.4  6.1*
Smash          3.8  2.3       3.8  2.8  2.3  2.3  2.7*
The Sing-Off   1.9  1.3  -- 
Who's Still St 1.7  1.5  1.7
Fear Factor    3.5  2.3  1.5R 
Playboy Club   1.6  1.2  
Rock Center    1.6  0.7  0.8



CBS went into repeat mode on the first Monday after the February sweep, and viewers were just not interested in catching up on episodes they might have missed earlier.  Last year on this night:  How I Met Your Mother (2.0), Mad Love (2.7), Two and a Half Men (3.0), Mike & Molly (2.7) and Hawaii Five-O (2.1).   


CBS Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05
How I Met Your 4.9  3.4  2.5R 4.0  3.4  3.8  3.6  2.0R
2 Broke Girls  7.1  3.8  2.7R 4.3  3.8  4.0  3.8  2.1R
2.5 Men       10.7  3.6  3.0R 4.3  3.9  4.2  3.6  2.1R
Mike & Molly   4.8  2.9  2.3R 3.4  3.4  3.4  2.9  1.8R
Hawaii Five-O  3.4  2.5  1.7R 2.7  2.7  2.9  2.5  1.5R

The Bachelor was an original episode ("The Women Tell All" edition) and it rated the same as the previous several weeks, not gaining any advantage by CBS being in repeats.  Last year on this night, ABC averaged a 2.8 rating: The Bachelor (3.5) and Castle (1.5). 

ABC Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05
Dancing Stars  4.0  2.8  --   --
You Deserve It 1.7  0.8  --   --
The Bachelor   2.7  2.4  2.6  2.6  2.5  2.5  2.6  2.5*
Castle         3.2  2.0  1.4R 2.0  2.0  2.1  2.1  1.4R



FOX tried to spark some interest in Alcatraz with a two-hour block of original episodes, but no momentum was built.  The first hour averaged a 1.9 rating and the 9 pm episode scored a 1.8, matching a series low for the struggling drama from JJ Abrams' Bad Robot shingle.  Last year on this night, FOX averaged a first-place 3.9 rating House (5.2) and Chicago Code (2.6).   


FOX Mon        High Low  1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27 3.05

Terra Nova     3.1  2.1  --   --
House          3.9  2.4  2.9  2.5
  2.4  2.4  --   --
Alcatraz       3.3  1.8  2.8  2.3  1.9  1.8  --   1.8





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THE SKED SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





Maybe ABC should have left "Bitches" in the title.

ABC:  GCB (aka Good Christian Bitches, aka Good Christian Belles) had a very unimpressive debut, a 2.2 that was way below Pan Am's premiere in the fall.  (In fairness, the DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES lead-in to Pan Am was a lot higher than last night's rating.)  GCB wasn't able to win its hour, and considering that it was only 0.2 ahead of 3rd place CSI Miami, the likelihood is that once it settles into post-premiere numbers, it'll be in last place at 10PM.  ABC was hoping this could be the show that inherits the 9PM Housewives slot next season, but the signs aren't good.  Meanwhile, Housewives itself, as it nears the home stretch of its run (7 episodes left), was up a nice 0.3 from its pre-Oscar week airing.  The queen of ABC's Sunday night, though, is ONCE UPON A TIME, with a terrific 3.4 that was more than a half-point higher than anything else on network TV last night.


NBCCELEBRITY APPRENTICE, like every other major reality franchise this year (except The Voice), is substantially down from last season, in the neighborhood of 30%.  (Things aren't going to improve much next week, when its lead-in becomes Harry's Law, a show even CBS thinks skews old.)  But the show still won the 10PM hour, and a win is a win.

CBS:  Even with a solid 2.8 lead-in from THE AMAZING RACE, THE GOOD WIFE took a tumble to a season low 1.8, and while the show probably isn't in danger of cancellation--it's the only classy drama on the network--it had better hope those upscale viewers don't go anywhere.  (It'll be interesting to see what happens March 25, when Mad Men, a show that defines "upscale," makes its return in the same timeslot.)  CSI MIAMI was only 0.1 above its own season low, but faced atypical competition with the much-hyped GCB premiere.

FOX:  Another day at the office for the animation line-up, with every show within 0.1 of its rating 2 weeks ago.  FAMILY GUY and THE SIMPSONS, though, are down 25-30% from last season's average.

It's Monday, and that means SMASHWatch is on.  Tonight is the show's opportunity to hold or even increase last week's rating, thanks to repeats on both ABC and CBS.  Also, tonight was meant to be the 2-hour season finale of ALCATRAZ, but due to last week's rescheduled NASCAR race, it's just a 2-hour episode.  CBS and CW are all-rerun, and CASTLE is a repeat after a new BACHELOR.  



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THE SKED'S THURSDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





AWAKE didn't keep anyone from a full night's sleep.

NBC:  In the universe of NBC these days, you take your glass-half-full where you can get it, and here it is:  AWAKE won its time slot, it was up from its lead-in, it had the network's highest Thursday 10PM rating of the season, and despite its unusually convoluted premise, it lost relatively few viewers during the course of the hour.  So there's that.  Back on earth, though, Awake was for all intents and purposes NBC's last chance for a scripted break-out hit this season (whatever Smash is, it's not that), and marked yet another failure.  It could only reach a 1.9 rating against repeats on the other networks, and fell considerably below even the season lows for new episodes of The Mentalist and Private Practice.  (Even against a Mentalist repeat, its margin of victory was a mere 0.2.)  So:  on to next year!  Meanwhile, the rest of the evening was dismal as well:  none of the sitcoms were more than 0.2 above season lows, despite airing against repeats on 2 other networks.  Creatively, it was also a down night:  THE OFFICE neared the end of its Tallahassee arc with its weakest recent episode (the big gag was that Ed Helms' character was beaten up by a little girl), 30 ROCK was unable to match the conceptual brilliance of its last couple of entries and resorted to network television's one millionth Law & Order parody, and PARKS & RECREATION was unusually scattered.  (Let's not even speak of UP ALL NIGHT.)


FOX:  It's been the same story all week, as AMERICAN IDOL, with another 2-hour episode, was up from last Thursday (since this week aired against ABC and CBS reruns), but horribly down (more than 40%) from the parallel episode last season.  

ABC:  For an explanation of the network's schedule shenanigans last night, see Mitch Metcalf's rating reportIn any case, nothing on the night scored higher than a 1.3.

CBS:  With THE BIG BANG THEORY in repeats, the season finale of ROB hit a series low 2.6, which on the bright side was down only 0.6 from its depressed lead-in.  Repeats of PERSON OF INTEREST and THE MENTALIST were both under a 2.

CW:  Reruns of VAMPIRE DIARIES and SECRET CIRCLE were at 0.4 and 0.3, respectively.

Tonight is all new (except CW), with the notable event--such as it is--being the season (at least) finale of CBS' A GIFTED MAN.


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THE SKED'S WEDNESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





February Sweeps go out not with a bang, but with the other thing.

ABC:  The first "midseason arc" episode of REVENGE looked almost exactly like all the other episodes, so it was fitting that the rating stayed even.  The show will now take a break from fresh episodes until the end-of-season push in April.  (Meanwhile, the network will air REVENGE FOR REAL, some kind of "ABC News" concoction about actual rich-people crimes.  If it works, no doubt NBC is poised to launch Smash For Real.)  Elsewhere, even with a 2-hour Idol as competition, HAPPY ENDINGS had a very nice 0.4 bump over the last 2 weeks--and continued to pile up its pre-Community Random Pop Culture Reference points with a nod to Krippendorf's Tribe that must have made Richard Dreyfuss very happy.  THE MIDDLE was also up a gratifying 0.4, while SUBURGATORY was slightly up and MODERN FAMILY was even.  


FOX:  AMERICAN IDOL 2-hour Wednesday was in the same position as its Tuesday:  dreadfully down from the parallel episode last year (44%, ouch), but only slightly down from last week.  The days of its dominance certainly seem to be over.

CW:  Audiences were not waiting with baited breath for the US vs. Brit version of AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL, which had a 0.6 that was down a disastrous 45% from last year's Spring premiere, and even down from its lead-in ONE TREE HILL.  (And for anyone looking for excuses, sorry:  last year's premiere also aired against a 2-hour Idol.)

NBC:  On the plus side, nothing got worse. ARE YOU THERE, CHELSEA and SVU remained tied with their all-time lows, while WHITNEY and ROCK CENTER were a wildly exciting 0.1 above theirs'.  Next week, the network begins its Wednesday roundelay, with a new version of the schedule practically every week.  Fun!

CBS:  No good news here, either:  CRIMINAL MINDS tied its season low, while SURVIVOR and CSI were 0.1 above their respective lows.  The latter, though, still had enough to win the 10PM hour.

When NBC chose tonight for the debut of its difficult, highly conceptual AWAKE, the plan was for it to face no competition at 10PM but reruns.  Which is true, except ABC had the interesting idea of re-running its star-studded JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE post-Oscar special in the slot as counterprogramming.  Otherwise, little is new on the schedule:  FOX has another 2-hour Idol, and CBS stuck a new ROB amidst the rest of its otherwise all-repeat night.




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THE SKED: SMASHWatch Update - Back To Even





Don't get too excited about that increase in SMASH's 18-49 rating last night, because it just vanished.  In the final Nielsen numbers, Smash came back down to the same 2.3 number it had last week.  (Castle was also lowered a tenth of a point.)  


The lower number is nothing to panic about.  The final numbers also make clear that FOX's NASCAR coverage ran in most of the country until after 11:30PM, and since FOX doesn't usually even broadcast past 10PM, that means the entire hour was a mess for purposes of analysis.  Plus, equal with last week means "stable," and stable is good--especially with Smash's upscale numbers.   But... stable isn't quite as good as "up."  

To be continued next week.  As we noted this morning, NBC will have the advantage that night, because both Hawaii 5-0 and Castle will be in repeats, making it a better opportunity for Smash to build.




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The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS February 27

FOX made the night interesting by carrying NASCAR's Daytona 500 in prime time.  (The race was delayed by weather from its normal Sunday afternoon time.)  CBS and NBC were down from last week, although NBC received good news at 10 pm: Smash has stopped declining.  ABC was completely unaffected by the sports competition, actually ticking up a bit from last week.

 
               Nightly Primetime Average
Monday         NBC     CBS     ABC     FOX
02.27.2012     4.4     3.1     2.5     4.5    THIS WEEK
02.20.2012     4.8     3.5     2.4     2.1    LAST WEEK
02.28.2011     2.0     3.1     3.7     3.8    LAST YEAR

After stabilizing at a 6.0 for two weeks, NBC's The Voice dropped to a 5.4 preliminary fast national rating with Adults 18-49 (although it will probably go up to a 5.5 in the official nationals).  By half hour, The Voice started at a 4.6 at 8:00, built to a 5.4 at 8:30, jumped to a 5.6 at 9:00 and a 6.0 at 9:30.  While The Voice might have been hurt somewhat by the re-scheduled Daytona 500 on FOX, NBC had relatively good news at 10 pm.  With absolutely no potential overlap between NASCAR and Broadway musical fans, Smash is showing signs of finding its audience level.  Smash averaged a 2.6 in the first half hour and dropped less than it has the first three weeks within the episode, to a 2.3 rating in the 10:30-11:00 half hour.  For the 10 pm hour Smash averaged a 2.4, up one tenth from last week and holding on to second place behind a lower-than-average Hawaii Five-O and ahead of Castle.  Last year on this night: Chuck (2.2), The Cape (1.5) and Harry's Law (2.3).      

NBC Mon        High Low  1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27
The Voice      6.7  6.0            6.7  6.0  6.0  5.4*
Smash          3.8  2.3            3.8  2.8  2.3  2.4*
The Sing-Off   1.9  1.3  --   -- 
Who's Still St 1.7  1.5  1.7  1.7
Fear Factor    3.5  2.3  --   1.5R 
Playboy Club   1.6  1.2  
Rock Center    1.6  0.7  1.6  0.8

The four-week track for Smash: 3.8... 2.8... 2.3...2.4.  The forecast was based on an assumption that it would take four weeks to settle into its eventual audience level, but the show appears to have done it in three.  While not a big hit, if Smash can hold a 2.3 rating (and an upper-income index of 135, suggesting a 3.1 rating in $100K+ homes), NBC will be pleased.   

             NBC Monday by Week
             ShowBuzzDaily Forecast & Actual Ratings (18-49)

                            Week1  Week2  Week3  Week4
             The Voice
               Forecast      4.6    4.1    3.6    3.5
               ACTUAL        6.7    6.0    6.0    5.4*
             Smash
               Forecast      3.3    2.7    2.2    1.9
               ACTUAL        3.8    2.8    2.3    2.4*



One can imagine a decent overlap between CBS viewers and NASCAR fans -- so it's not surprising every show in the lineup (except for How I Met Your Mother) is on track for a season low.  Interestingly, Two and a Half Men is now back down to levels where Charlie Sheen repeats were performing during his historic meltdown.  Last year on this night:  How I Met Your Mother (4.1), Mad Love (3.0), Two and a Half Men (3.4), Mike & Molly (3.9) and Hawaii Five-O (2.0).   


CBS Mon        High Low  1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27
How I Met Your 4.9  3.4  2.3R 2.5R 4.0  3.4  3.8  3.6*
2 Broke Girls  7.1  3.8  2.6R 2.7R 4.3  3.8  4.0  3.7*
2.5 Men       10.7  3.9  2.9R 3.0R 4.3  3.9  4.2  3.6*
Mike & Molly   4.8  3.4  2.4R 2.3R 3.4  3.4  3.4  2.9*
Hawaii Five-O  3.4  2.7  1.6R 1.7R 2.7  2.7  2.9  2.5*

ABC was up a tenth of a rating point from last week, maybe a bit of an Oscar glow (and, no surprise, absolutely no hint of an impact from the cars turning left in Daytona last night).  Last year on this night, ABC averaged a 3.7 rating: The Bachelor (3.8) and Castle (3.6). 

ABC Mon        High Low  1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27
Dancing Stars  4.0  2.8  --   --   --
You Deserve It 1.7  0.8  --   --   --
The Bachelor   2.7  2.4  2.7  2.6  2.6  2.5  2.5  2.6*
Castle         3.2  2.0  2.1  1.4R 2.0  2.0  2.1  2.2*



FOX had a great Monday thanks to bad weather in Florida that delayed the Daytona 500 from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon and finally to Monday night.  The race is averaging a 4.5 in the preliminary fast nationals, and that number should rise to a high-4 rating once the Western time zones are adjusted.  Last year on this night, FOX averaged a first-place 3.8 rating with a healthy House (5.0) and Chicago Code (2.6).   


FOX Mon        High Low  1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27

Terra Nova     3.1  2.1  --   --   --
House          3.9  2.4  3.1  2.9  2.5
  2.4  2.4  --
Alcatraz       3.3  1.8  3.0  2.8  2.3  1.9  1.8  --





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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- Update through February 23

GCB and the Oscars are the big bets for ABC in recent days, while NBC continues to make an extraordinary push for Awake.  CBS is hoping to take Person of Interest to another level, and FOX just doesn't seem to be making any choices about what to promote hard.  The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 9 and 23, with about 18.5 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABCGCB has become the top priority for ABC over the past few weeks, now averaging 21 seconds per hour sampled in prime time.  ABC has been repeating the same 30-second spot over and over (the rhyming spot with "witches" and "riches" instead of the expected "bitches" from the original series title).  The spot is not particularly clever, but ABC is hoping the repetition of the show's premise will cut through.  With a last minute rush of Oscar spots (often over 30 seconds per hour on recent nights), the Academy Awards spots have moved into the #2 priority position, averaging 17 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (after being in the high single digits recently).  Of note, the spots promote the Oscar app and Oscar.com almost as much as the show itself.  (Clips of the still niche The Artist and visuals of Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo are not going to persuade marginal viewers to tune in.)  Revenge remains a fairly important priority (16 seconds per hour), as ABC keeps trying to make it break out  from the 2.5 range into the high-2 rating area.  Scandal is now averaging 11 seconds an hour (up sharply from the middle single digits).  That number is going to continue to rise as we move through March.  Missing (starring Ashley Judd as a CIA agent/ mom searching for her son) is holding at 9 seconds per hour.  It looks like it has the production quality of The Firm, and -- just a hunch -- will not receive much higher promotion levels in coming weeks, as opposed to the Shonda Rhimes project Scandal.

NBCAwake premiering next Thursday at 10 in the dead zone time period is now averaging an amazing 41 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  If it fails it won't be for lack of trying.  With Up All Night as its lead in, Awake's success will be based on the inherent appeal of the show's premise, which is described in every spot.  We shall see.  Smash is holding at a very strong 25 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  As the ratings tumble each week (and during each quarter hour that airs), the network is trying every promo trick in the book to get people to hang on.  Last week it was the sex appeal of the characters and storylines.  This week, it's a guest star -- Nick Jonas?!?  Maybe he has a high Q-score with the target audience for a drama about mounting a Broadway musical, but it seems a little desperate or cheesy for a show that relies on critic quotes like "Wow.  Just wow."  Fashion Star is holding at 20 seconds per hour, a very solid level for a new reality show.  The Voice, at 10 seconds per hour, is just enough to keep its name out there, and NBC is using the brief promos effectively to dub the night "Must See Monday".  (At least for the first two hours of the night, it's a very legitimate claim.) 


CBSPerson of Interest has been anointed by CBS as the new show most worthy of a midseason push.  At 21 seconds per hour the past two weeks, the JJ Abrams-produced freshman number is the #1 priority for the network, which clearly want to see if its ratings can break out of the low-3 range to above a 3.5 rating.  Undercover Boss has received a substantial investment of time the past several nights, moving its average into double digits (11 seconds per hour).  That is low compared to Survivor (19 seconds) and Amazing Race (17), but it is significant for a Friday show, and CBS hopes it can build on the show's promising initial ratings on the tough night.  Just missing the chart below is Late Show with David Letterman (9 seconds per hour), substantially more than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno (5 seconds) or Jimmy Kimmel Live (3 seconds).  Unless the guest is truly newsworthy, however, late night ratings are surprisingly inelastic to promo efforts.   


FOXBreaking In has edged up to 12 seconds per hour, up from 10 recently.  And the return of Touch is at a barely-committed 10 seconds per hour.  And pity poor Bob's Burgers (not shown on the chart below) whose return is starting with a base of 6 seconds per hour.  Not that any of those shows will make much of an impact in any scenario -- it's just that FOX doesn't seem to be betting on anything.   



                          PROMO WATCH

                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled
                 Past Two Weeks (Feb 9-23, 2011)

      ABC                          CBS
     GCB                21        Person of Interest 21
     Oscars             17        Survivor           19
     Revenge            16        Amazing Race       17
     The River          14        Unforgettable      12
     Castle             13        Undercover Boss    11
     Scandal            11

     NBC                          FOX
     Awake              41        Alcatraz           13
     Smash              25        Breaking In        12
     Fashion Star       20        Glee               12
     The Voice          10        Touch              10
                                  New Girl           10
    

###
 

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The Sked: Upscale Ratings -- NBC Profile

NBC is the focus of our final profile of network performance with upscale viewers.  The good news for the Peacock is that many of its programs have a disproportionate share of viewers in homes with yearly incomes over $100,000.  Yet far too many of these NBC shows have a very small overall audience size.  While the network skews upscale, the network overall doesn't deliver a critical mass of viewers, especially in the entertainment portion of the schedule (factoring out Sunday Night Football).  Click on "read more" to see the updated chart, with NBC's programs in pink. 

Sunday Night Football.  The NFL on Sunday absolutely makes the NBC schedule.  The weekly prime time football game is in the coveted upper tier of the chart below: a very high overall rating and a strong upscale skew (121 index).  The show ranks #2 with Adults 18-49 season to date but rises to #1 among Adults 18-49 in $100K+ homes.  When the NFL Sunday game is included in NBC's season average, the network scores a 2.8 rating with Adults 18-49 (just behind CBS and FOX's 2.9 and ahead of ABC's 2.4).  However, when we look at Adults 18-49 in $100K+ homes, NBC's season average rises all the way to a 3.2 (far above FOX's 2.8, ABC's 2.7 and CBS's 2.6).  NBC's upscale index of 116 beats ABC's 113 and far ahead the more downscale skews for FOX (96) and CBS (91).     

But sadly for NBC, the NFL goes away after the fourth quarter, when the rest of the schedule has to carry the load.  And what is the shape of that non-NFL slate?  Not good.  Without the NFL, NBC's regular programs season to date averages a 1.8 with Adults 18-49 and a 2.1 with upper-income Adult 18-49.  While that is still a positive 112 index, the rating levels are not anywhere near the other networks. 

Monday Night.  Of course, NBC also has The Voice, its other good news of the season.  At a 107 upper-income index, the show is tantalizingly close to the upper right section of our chart.  But it is really a moot point what side of an arbitrary line the show falls on: The Voice is a major hit, it is on the upswing, and it forms a foundation for NBC Mondays from 8 to 10 pm.  In contrast, while Smash appears in the high-rated/ upscale section of our chart below, remember that is based on the first two episodes only.  The show's ratings are rapidly falling each week, and in a few weeks it will place in the lower end of our "middle rating" range.  While it will maintain a very good upper-income skew (currently 135), Smash is destined to become another Parenthood and not Modern Family or Glee.


The Office, Parks and Recreation and Parenthood.  And that's precisely the problem.  NBC doesn't need another drama like Parenthood.  The NBC schedule is filled with high upscale index values (The Office (155), Parks and Recreation (155), 30 Rock (152), and even Whitney or Community (both 135) or The Firm (132).  But those shows tend to be at the very low-rated section of the chart or in the middle-rated section and trending lower with each passing week.  Although viewers of these niche programs are more likely to have high incomes and are better educated than average, there just aren't many viewers of the programs, relative to other broadcast networks.  At this point in the NBC rebuild, the network can sacrifice an extremely high upscale index in favor of a high rating. 

In case you missed them, catch up on the other upscale profiles for ABC, CBS and FOX.
 

 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY NY THEATRE JOURNAL: "Seminar"



There's an inescapable irony in Theresa Rebeck's play SEMINAR when the bilious novelist (Alan Rickman) who's reluctantly teaching a group of aspiring young writers launches an attack on one of them by predicting that his "whorishness" will make him more suited for a life in Hollywood than one in the finer precincts of the arts.  Rebeck herself has recently acquired a corner of the pop zeitgeist all her own:  she's the creator and head writer (sole writer of the initial 3 episodes) of Smash, a little TV effort of which you may have heard.


Seminar, a small-scale play performed (except for one scene) on a single set and without intermission, is far from the big-budget glitz of Smash.  Both works, though, share a way of looking at the arts that parades world-weariness and cynicism while barely hiding an idealism verging on sentimentality.   In Seminar, the artistic effort of choice is the writing of fiction:  Preppy Kate (Lily Rabe), who may not be rich but has a fabulous rent-controlled apartment in the family, has organized the seminar and is one of the 4 participants paying thousands of dollars each to have Leonard (Rickman) read their work and provide individualized critiques.  Other students include Douglas (Jerry O'Connell), who Has Connections and has already had short pieces published, and Izzy (Hettienne Park), a young woman far more comfortable with her sexuality than Kate is.  Most crucial is Martin (Hamish Linklater), on whom Kate has a crush obvious to everyone except Martin.

Each student submits more-or-less meekly to the eloquent assassinations of talent and character that seem to be Leonard's only mode of communication--except Martin, who refuses to submit his writing to the teacher.  This being a play, that can mean only one of two possibilities:  Martin is a fraud, or he's a genius.  (Warning:  Spoilers Ahead)  As it turns out, the latter is the case--although, as so often happens with narratives depicting fictional genius, the bits and pieces of Martin's work that we hear about certainly don't sound as remarkable as we keep being told they are.  Martin's writing prompts, finally, a show of legitimate emotion from Leonard, who reveals himself underneath it all to be as devoted and self-sacrificing for his art as any of his young charges.

All through Seminar, the soap opera aspects of who ends up sleeping with whom have been fairly glib (when Kate is miserable, she gorges on ice cream), but Rebeck gets away with that, because these callow characters' choices about whom to sleep with are meant to be fairly glib too.  When things turn serious at the end, though, and reverence for Literature is being invoked, the play becomes problematic:  the notion that Leonard, with his decades of anger and profound bitterness, merely has to read a promising manuscript to be transformed into a self-effacing champion of art is one that's more romantic than believable (writing talent is treated almost like a super-power), and Martin for his part becomes a character increasingly unable to bear the narrative burden placed on him. 

Much of Seminar works, though, because Rebeck supplies plenty of snappy dialogue before things get too self-important, and the play. fluidly directed by Sam Gold, has a great cast.  It's not exactly a stretch for Alan Rickman to play an ill-tempered professor who resents his students (he must have to restrain himself from deducting nightly points from Gryffindor), but there are few actors more enjoyable to watch in that part.  Rabe is so strong as Kate that one wishes Rebeck had provided a less dismissive ending for her character.  Linklater almost manages to pull off Martin, although he can't quite make the final scene work.  O'Connell and Park, despite having much less substance to work with, are consistently engaging.

The flaws of Seminar--plot turns for the sake of diversion alone, a point of view less challenging than it initially appears--are associated not so much with serious artistic statement as they are wth popular entertainment... like television.  Perhaps the real happy ending to this story happened off-stage.  (Although given last night's ratings--perhaps not.)

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD




So much for SMASH being a hit.

NBC:  Leaving the numbers aside for a moment, on a dramatic level SMASH after 3 episodes is starting to lose its practically-cable sheen, and look a lot more like a high-class ABC soap.  The post-pilot episodes haven't even been as good as a typical Parenthood or The Good Wife, much less Mad Men.   And those numbers continue to crumble:  last night's 2.3 was down 40% from the premiere, and as Mitch Metcalf's analysis shows, the drop in the show's 2d half-hour suggests the ratings aren't done falling.  It's only fair to say that if Smash could just stabilize where it is, that would still be a very good number for NBC, on a level with The Office, still the network's highest-rated scripted show.  And as The Sked has noted, the series appeals to the upscale viewers that advertisers covet.  But... coming in 2d place to Hawaii 5-0 (and not that far ahead of Castle in 3d place) is hardly where NBC wanted Smash to be.  On the very important plus side for the the network, though, THE VOICE is holding beautifully, down less than 15% over 3 weeks, and enabling NBC to keep airing those promos asserting domination over once-untouchable American Idol.  


FOX:  The Monday lineup is nearing bottom but may not have gotten there yet.  HOUSE and ALCATRAZ were both slightly down from last week, and Alcatraz had its 2d consecutive week below the lowest number Terra Nova ever had.  

CBSHOW I MET YOUR MOTHER, 2 BROKE GIRLS and 2 1/2 MEN all recovered some of last week's losses, but each continues to run below its level from the first time facing The VoiceMIKE & MOLLY and HAWAII 5-0 were steady, albeit at or just above season lows.

ABCTHE BACHELOR and CASTLE were steady, 0.1 above their respective season lows.

CWGOSSIP GIRL and  HART OF DIXIE both held with last week at 0.5 and 0.6 respectively.

Fans of COUGAR TOWN could be in for a rough night if its rating drops further from last week's blah debut.  THE RIVER also needs to hit some smoother water.  FOX airs the "midseason finale" of GLEE (next Tuesday there's a 2-hour Idol, then the network launches its 4-sitcom experiment).  Everything continues to be new as February sweeps continue, except that CW is burdening RINGER with the terrible lead-in of a HART OF DIXIE rerun.

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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- Update through February 19

Over halfway through the February ratings sweep, the broadcast networks continue to exhibit very different strategies in allocating their precious on-air promotion time to market and launch new programs as well as supporting their existing schedules.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


NBC.  NBC continues to promote fewer priorities each with massive levels of support.  Over the past few weeks in prime time, NBC has devoted 29 seconds per hour on average to the new drama Awake, the highest level on any network.  The complexity of the story (when is he awake? when is he dreaming? are there two dream worlds or just one?) requires longer-length spots (most often 45-second lengths in this case).  And because of NBC's ratings shortfalls, these spots are running very frequently to extend the campaign's reach as much as possible.  As the table below illustrates, a 20-second average per hour is a high allocation for most networks.  How is NBC doing this? Quite simply by promoting far fewer programs at the roughly 5 second per hour maintenance level for exiting shows.  Many marginal shows (and there are plenty to choose from on the NBC schedule) are getting zero promotion to create more time for future shows.  Smash also continues to receive a high level of support (26 seconds per hour on average).  Notably, the campaign has shifted away from tired lines like "She's a STAR!" or "She glows!" to a reliance on quotes from superb critical reviews and most recently this past week many lines suggesting sex (who is sleeping with whom, who is straight and who is gay) will play a major role in the next few episodes.   The third priority, Fashion Star (18 seconds per hour), would be #1 on most other networks is also being hit hard, still promising that viewers can buy the winning designs in stores the next day.  Finally, The Voice (10 seconds per hour) celebrates the playful judges who will "charm" and "flirt" with the contestants and the audience.

ABCRevenge (19 seconds per hour) has been the #1 priority on ABC for the past few weeks.  The network really wants to make the show work, promising it's "not too late" to join the fun.  But history shows it is incredibly tough to actually convince viewers to join a serialized drama in progress.  GCB (15 seconds per hour) is being promoted most often with a 30-second rhyming spot that drops the word "bitches" (from the show's original title) just as one expects to hear it uttered (with not so clever rhymes like "riches" or "stitches" or "witches").   But at 15 seconds per hour, this is far from a full court press.  Other shows (The River, Castle, Cougar Town and the Grey's Anatomy/Private Practice crossover event) received decent levels at 10 seconds per hour or more, but nothing is really receiving the all-in bet of a winner.  Curiously, the Oscars is the next level down (at 9 seconds per hour).  Perhaps it is a wise decision.   The lack of broadly appealing movies among the nominees and the dearth of close races in many categories will probably make the Academy Awards one of the lowest-rated in history, no matter how many promos they throw at it.  And let's face it, the return of Billy Chrystal as host will not draw many viewers under 40 or 50.   New dramas Missing starring Ashley Judd (7 seconds) and Scandal (5 seconds) come later in the spring.  If the promo allocation numbers start increasing for either, we will know how ABC really feels about the shows.  Scandal is promoted almost exclusively inside Shonda Rhimes' own real estate Thursdays 9-11 pm (inside Grey's and Private Practice). 


CBS.  The return of Survivor and Amazing Race (each at 17 seconds per hour) were the main priorities the past few weeks.  As established franchises, they certainly did not warrant much more time. Person of Interest (15 seconds) and Unforgettable (13 seconds) represent an attempt to take these freshman dramas to another level, with the former having a much better chance of inching up in the ratings than the former.   A high number of CBS shows receive about 5 seconds per hour, barely maintenance/ reminder levels, but the CBS audience is loyal and does need much convincing to stay with what they like and know.  


FOX. The #1 priority on FOX is a lowly 14 seconds per hour for Glee.  Everything is changing, the spot promises, suggesting weddings and pregnancies might be coming.  The audience is skeptical and savvy, however, and this spot feels like it might be over-promising.   The one new show getting a decent level of promotion is Breaking In (with Megan Mullally joining the cast), but at only 10 seconds per hour, the spots will have limited ability to cut through the clutter.  With so many key shows in decline and nothing new on the horizon, FOX just isn't sure what to push.   



                          PROMO WATCH
                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled

                 Past Two Weeks (Feb 6-19, 2011)
      ABC                          CBS
     Revenge            19        Survivor           17
     GCB                15        Amazing Race       17
     The River          13        Person of Interest 15
     Castle             11        Unforgettable      13
     Cougar Town        11        NCIS Los Angeles   10
     Grey's/Private     10
      crossover 


     NBC                          FOX
     Awake              29        Glee               14
     Smash              26        American Idol      13
     Fashion Star       18        Alcatraz           11
     The Voice          10        New Girl           10
                                  Breaking In        10
    

 
 

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD




NBC can't put away that Alka-Seltzer just yet.

NBC:  THE VOICE, down only around 10% from last week's huge rating, is in great shape at 8PM, and those 2 strong hours pretty much guarantee NBC Monday wins the rest of the season.  So far so good.  But nightly wins aside, an enormous amount of NBC's stature and even its identity has been wagered this season on SMASH, and that part of the night is still unsettled.  Last night, Smash's 2.8 was down about 25% from last week, and as Mitch Metcalf details, that number went down sharply at the half-hour mark.  Right now the show can still fairly be called a hit, winning its hour against CBS and ABC.  But its margin of victory was a shrinking 0.2 (and really it only won the 10-10:30PM half-hour), so the show needs to stabilize quickly.  As I noted in my Pilot + 1 review, creatively the 2d episode started to show some dramatic strain, and NBC will hope those are rectified before more viewers depart. 


FOX:  The Voice is killing ALCATRAZ, which fell by almost half an additional ratings point to another season low.  (Terra Nova fans, stop grinning.)  The show has dropped 40% from its premiere rating.  HOUSE also fell to a new season low, but by a slimmer 0.1, and besides, the series is now officially a lame duck, so its troubles are more short-term.

ABC:  THE BACHELOR and CASTLE continue to hold their own against the NBC competition, with Bachelor down only 0.1 from last week and Castle (with a much-hyped 2-part Bourne-type spy plot) dead even.

CBS:  What the hell happened to HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER, 2 BROKE GIRLS and 2 1/2 MEN last night?  All of them had steep falls to new season lows, down 0.6, 0.6 and 0.5 from last week even though competition from The Voice was lower this week.  (And so much for any Grammys halo effect.)  Any and all theories are welcome.  MIKE & MOLLY and HAWAII 5-0 were down a more modest 0.1 each, although that still marked a new season low for each of them.

CW:  GOSSIP GIRL, on the downswing of its illustrious career, was down 0.1 to a 0.5, beaten by stablemate HART OF DIXIE, which was even at 0.6.

Tonight ABC finally brings back COUGAR TOWN, with LAST MAN STANDING as the least compatible possible lead-in for that show this side of Man Up!  After that, the network will hope that THE RIVER doesn't collapse further from its unimpressive debut.

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The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS February 13

NBC not surprisingly settled down a bit from last week's post-Super Bowl launch of its new Monday.  The Voice continues to set the pace for all the networks on Monday and is now about the same as American Idol's typical Wednesday rating -- let the battle continue about which signing competition show reigns supreme!  However, Smash is still sorting out how many viewers will tune in on a regular basis. 

 
               Nightly Primetime Average
Monday         NBC     CBS     ABC     FOX
02.13.2012     4.9     3.2     2.3     2.2
02.14.2011     1.6     3.4     2.7     2.7

NBC's The Voice settled down a bit to a still very good 5.9 rating from 8-10 pm, down from a 6.7 last week.  As usual, the singing competition show built solidly by half hour: 5.1... 5.7... 6.3... 6.5.  Then 10:00 pm hit and the audience began to scatter.  Smash averaged a 3.1 in the first half hour and plummeted again in the 10:30-11:00 half hour to a 2.5.  Still, the 2.8 rating for Smash in its second week (compared to a 3.8 premiere rating) is much better than the 1-ish rating for Playboy Club and Rock Center earlier in the season Monday at 10.  But keep in mind that Smash is not finished falling. 

NBC Mon        High Low  01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13
The Voice      6.7  5.9                      6.7  5.9*
Smash          3.8  2.8                      3.8  2.8*
The Sing-Off   1.9  1.3  --   --   --   -- 
Who's Still St 1.7  1.5  1.6  --   1.7  1.7
Fear Factor    3.5  2.3  2.3  --   --   1.5R 
Playboy Club   1.6  1.2  
Rock Center    1.6  0.7  0.7  1.3  1.6  0.8

Smash is now in line with our original forecast (posted during the week before the Super Bowl on February 3), while The Voice is way ahead of our bearish forecast.   Holding at a 3.0 rating in week 2 would have been an important milestone for Smash since that would have represented a moderate 10% weekly decline from the "core" 3.4 rating identified in last week's analysis of the minute by minute ratings.  But the weekly decline is more like 20% and the within-show bail out witnessed in week two indicates it will continue to decline.  A 2.5 next week would be a good sign for the Broadway musical drama.  Anything less suggests a 2.0 or less is in its near future as the original forecast claimed.  

             NBC Monday by Week
             ShowBuzzDaily Forecast & Actual Ratings (18-49)

                            Week1  Week2  Week3  Week4
             The Voice
               Forecast      4.6    4.1    3.6    3.5
               ACTUAL        6.7    5.9    
             Smash
               Forecast      3.3    2.7    2.2    1.9
               ACTUAL        3.8    2.8



CBS should have been up from last week given the exceptionally strong Grammy ratings Sunday and the decline in NBC's numbers from last week.  However, the 8-11 pm average last night (3.2) is down a full four tenths of a rating from last Monday's nightly average.  And even more disturbing, the entire line-up is on track to set season lows for each program.  Last year on this night:  How I Met Your Mother (3.7), Mad Love (3.0), Two and a Half Men (4.2), Mike & Molly (3.8) and Hawaii Five-O (2.8).   


CBS Mon        High Low  01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13
How I Met Your 4.9  3.9  2.2R 4.4  2.3R 2.5R 4.0  3.4*
2 Broke Girls  7.1  4.2  2.4R 4.6  2.6R 2.7R 4.3  3.7*
2.5 Men       10.7  4.3  2.3R 4.6  2.9R 3.0R 4.3  3.8*
Mike & Molly   4.8  3.4  2.3R 3.8  2.4R 2.3R 3.4  3.3*
Hawaii Five-O  3.4  2.7  1.6R 2.8  1.6R 1.7R 2.7  2.6*

ABC placed third with a 2.3 rating with a slightly lower Bachelor rating from last week and the same season low rating for Castle.  Last year on this night, ABC averaged a 2.7 rating: The Bachelor (2.9) and Castle (2.2). 

ABC Mon        High Low  01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13
Dancing Stars  4.0  2.8  --   --   --   --   --
You Deserve It 1.7  0.8  --   --   --   --   --
The Bachelor   2.7  2.4  2.2  2.4  2.7  2.6  2.6  2.5*
Castle         3.2  2.0  2.3  2.2  2.1  1.4R 2.0  2.0*



FOX Monday continues to not impress.  House drifted down a tenth from last week's season low, and Alcatraz plunged below a 2 rating, setting yet another season low.  Last year on this night, FOX averaged a 2.7 rating with House (3.4) and Chicago Code (2.0).   


FOX Mon        High Low  01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13

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