Movie Box Review

The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between March 4 and March 8, with about 10 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABC.  Missing has become the top promotional priority for ABC over the past week, now running at about 38 seconds per hour.  GCB receded to a still substantial 33 seconds per hour, with promos trumpeting its premiere viewership Sunday.  Some promos mentioned "11 million viewers fell in love", while others said "18 million viewers watched".  The first number refers to the average audience in any given minute, and the second measures who many people saw at least a few minutes of the show (the "total audience").  Rather than throwing two numbers around, why not pick one and stick with it?  Don't Trust the Bitch in Apt 23 and Scandal are up from previous weeks, now at 18 and 15 seconds, respectively. 

NBC.  Fashion Star increased to 37 seconds per hour over the past week, clearly the #1 promo priority for the struggling network.  Awake has been dialed back to 24 seconds per hour, promoting the second episode and referencing the show's premiere performance.  Rather than saying a number, NBC said "millions were thrilled".  
        
CBS.  Person of Interest increased again this past week to 28 seconds per hour.  The episode (featuring a cute baby and a "two men and a baby" theme in the promos) was one of the few original episodes on CBS among a sea of repeats, and the on-air promotion paid off as Person of Interest edged past its previous season high.  Big Bang Theory, also an original episode, moved into the top priority list, up to 11 seconds per hour after bumping around the 5-6 second range in recent weeks.  .      


FOX.  Bob's Burgers, returning Sunday, moved up to 22 seconds per hour -- as heavy a commitment as FOX has given recently.  .     



                          PROMO WATCH

ABC wins the night but has a fairly disappointing debut of GCB.  Additionally, all the networks -- including ABC -- are down significantly versus the same night last year.  The four broadcast networks have seen a collective 2.5 rating points just disappear from Sunday night, more audience scattering to cable and other activities.      

ABC led a very quiet Saturday night with a 1.2 Adult 18-49 from 8-11 pm in the preliminary fast nationals.  Wipeout at 8 pm averaged a 0.9 from 8:00-8:30 and 1.0 from 8:30-9:00, winning the hour.  ABC continued its winning ways from 9-11 pm with a 20/20 special, My Extreme Affliction (about people with extraordinary abilities and medical conditions).  The special averaged a 1.3 rating over the two hours (1.3 at 9:00, 1.3 at 9:30, 1.4 at 10:00 and 1.1 at 10:30), winning each half hour before faltering to second place at 10:30.

FOX premiered Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony's global search for Latin dance talent from 8-10 pm, Q'Viva! The Chosen, averaging a 0.8 rating.  By half hour the special earned a 0.8 at 8:00 (second place), 0.7 at 8:30 (tied for second), 0.7 at 9:00 (third place) and 0.8 at 9:30 (third place).  The special under-performed Cops in the 8 pm hour but slightly exceed the various drama repeats at 9 pm.

CBS averaged a 0.9 from 8-11 pm with drama repeats at 8 pm (CSI: New York, 0.7) and 9 pm (CSI, 0.8), followed by 48 Hours Mystery at 10 pm (1.1).

NBC scraped together a 0.5 rating in prime time with a repeat Smash (0.4), an original The Firm (0.4) and repeat Law & Order: SVU (0.8).

Don't forget to check out our ratings forecast for GCB, which premieres Sunday at 10 on ABC. 

GCB finally arrives Sunday night at 10 after Desperate Housewives, as it lurches toward its series finale in May.  With a little luck, we will stop hearing "we shall receive" in the ABC promos at a carpet-bombing rate of 45+ seconds per hour.  The light soap/drama from Robert Harling (creator of Sex and the City) is based on the book Good Christian Bitches, with the pilot re-titled Good Christian Belles and ultimately GCB.  The premiere episode should build slightly on its Desperate Housewives lead-in and settle slightly in the next few weeks.  We are giving Desperate a 2.6 Sunday as it rebuilds back toward a 3 rating after the January/ February pre-emptions and stiff competition.  The audience for GCB should be very compatible and a small additional bonus audience of the curious will probably check it out.  We expect GCB to win the time period Sunday with Adults 18-49, with NBC in second (the second hour of Celebrity Apprentice at a 2.5 rating and the full 9-11 pm episode at a 2.4) and CSI: Miami in third with a 1.9 rating.    
  



            ShowBuzzDaily Forecast
              GCB -- ABC Sunday
             Adults 18-49 Rating

          Week 1   Week 2   Week 3   Week 4
  Forecast  2.8      2.7      2.6      2.6


The premiere of NBC's Awake Thursday rounded up in the official nationals to a 2.0 rating (from a 1.9), bringing it a bit closer to our original forecast of a 2.4 rating.  We still expect a decline in week two (the show's rating dropped a bit at the half-hour mark -- and even at each quarter-hour mark).  With The Mentalist returning with an original episode this Thursday on CBS, look for a 1.8 from Awake in its second week.  
  

            ShowBuzzDaily Forecast
            AWAKE -- NBC Thursday
             Adults 18-49 Rating

          Week 1   Week 2   Week 3   Week 4
  Forecast  2.4      2.1      2.1      2.0
  Actual    2.0


###

The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 16 and March 1, with about 16 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABC.  GCB continues to be the top ABC priority as it heads toward Sunday night's premiere.  On-air promotion has been heavy, averaging 38 seconds per hour over the last two weeks.  Over the past week, the on-air promo commitment to GCB has been 46 seconds per hour, nearing saturation levels.  As we have seen with NBC's Awake, heavy promotion does not guarantee a high premiere rating.  A compatible lead-in and an easy to communicate premise helps, and GCB has both of those things going for it.  Check back later today for a forecast of GCB's premiere ratings.  Promotion for Missing (starring Ashley Judd) has picked up to 20 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and up to 25 seconds per hour over the past week).  Scandal (starring Kerry Washington) premieres later and has fallen down to 8 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and an almost non-existent 2 seconds per hour the past week).  It will be interesting to see if the creative approach for Scandal has been re-tooled when promos start airing again in heavier rotation.  

NBC.  Awake averaged 44 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (peaking at 46 seconds per hour this past week leading up to Thursday's premiere).  The 1.9 Adult 18-49 rating the debut received Thursday at 10 pm is surely a disappointment.  Yes, it built on its Up All Night lead-in, it was in first place in the time period (if you exclude cable and forget it faced repeats on ABC and CBS), it improved on the performance of The Firm, and it slightly beat Prime Suspect's premiere (by all of one tenth of a rating point).  But these are "world's tallest midget" comparisons.  Amazing that some television writers actually picked up on that spin.  The promos were given every opportunity to run, and the audience either was confused or simply didn't care. Next up is Fashion Star, which has averaged 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and 18 seconds over the most recent week).  Look for its allocation to zoom as Awake levels come back down to Earth.  
        
CBS.  Person of Interest stays in the top spot with 23 seconds over the past two weeks.  Even the repeat episode that aired Thursday received heavy support (19 seconds over the past week).  Undercover Boss has received substantial support, 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks and 21 seconds over the past week (actually making it the #1 priority this week only), emphasizing an emotional sell and a teary Popeye's Chicken CEO understanding the pain of Americans.  CBS is hoping Boss can bounce back from last week's 1.9 rating (which featured a rather cold, unemotional CEO, by the way) after the very promising 2.4 rated premiere.  Amid scripted series repeats, Survivor and Amazing Race stand out with original episodes and have also received 18 seconds per hour each.      


FOX.  The heat has started to be turned up on Touch starring Kiefer Sutherland, 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks but up to 23 seconds per hour over the past week.  While not a full commitment when compared to the other networks, Touch is clearly FOX's priority.  Bob's Burgers clocks in at 11 seconds per hour (over both the past two weeks and the past week), while the network has eased off the gas for Breaking In (10 seconds per hour over the past two weeks and a barely noticeable 6 seconds per hour the past week). Not shown on the chart, Q'Viva (Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony scour the world for young talent) premieres Saturday for a short run.  The show has averaged 3 seconds per hour the past two weeks and 7 seconds per hour the past week (with a few spots in American Idol, for Ms. Lopez's benefit).     



                          PROMO WATCH

GCB and the Oscars are the big bets for ABC in recent days, while NBC continues to make an extraordinary push for Awake.  CBS is hoping to take Person of Interest to another level, and FOX just doesn't seem to be making any choices about what to promote hard.  The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 9 and 23, with about 18.5 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABC.  GCB has become the top priority for ABC over the past few weeks, now averaging 21 seconds per hour sampled in prime time.  ABC has been repeating the same 30-second spot over and over (the rhyming spot with "witches" and "riches" instead of the expected "bitches" from the original series title).  The spot is not particularly clever, but ABC is hoping the repetition of the show's premise will cut through.  With a last minute rush of Oscar spots (often over 30 seconds per hour on recent nights), the Academy Awards spots have moved into the #2 priority position, averaging 17 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (after being in the high single digits recently).  Of note, the spots promote the Oscar app and Oscar.com almost as much as the show itself.  (Clips of the still niche The Artist and visuals of Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo are not going to persuade marginal viewers to tune in.)  Revenge remains a fairly important priority (16 seconds per hour), as ABC keeps trying to make it break out  from the 2.5 range into the high-2 rating area.  Scandal is now averaging 11 seconds an hour (up sharply from the middle single digits).  That number is going to continue to rise as we move through March.  Missing (starring Ashley Judd as a CIA agent/ mom searching for her son) is holding at 9 seconds per hour.  It looks like it has the production quality of The Firm, and -- just a hunch -- will not receive much higher promotion levels in coming weeks, as opposed to the Shonda Rhimes project Scandal.

NBC.  Awake premiering next Thursday at 10 in the dead zone time period is now averaging an amazing 41 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  If it fails it won't be for lack of trying.  With Up All Night as its lead in, Awake's success will be based on the inherent appeal of the show's premise, which is described in every spot.  We shall see.  Smash is holding at a very strong 25 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  As the ratings tumble each week (and during each quarter hour that airs), the network is trying every promo trick in the book to get people to hang on.  Last week it was the sex appeal of the characters and storylines.  This week, it's a guest star -- Nick Jonas?!?  Maybe he has a high Q-score with the target audience for a drama about mounting a Broadway musical, but it seems a little desperate or cheesy for a show that relies on critic quotes like "Wow.  Just wow."  Fashion Star is holding at 20 seconds per hour, a very solid level for a new reality show.  The Voice, at 10 seconds per hour, is just enough to keep its name out there, and NBC is using the brief promos effectively to dub the night "Must See Monday".  (At least for the first two hours of the night, it's a very legitimate claim.) 


CBS.  Person of Interest has been anointed by CBS as the new show most worthy of a midseason push.  At 21 seconds per hour the past two weeks, the JJ Abrams-produced freshman number is the #1 priority for the network, which clearly want to see if its ratings can break out of the low-3 range to above a 3.5 rating.  Undercover Boss has received a substantial investment of time the past several nights, moving its average into double digits (11 seconds per hour).  That is low compared to Survivor (19 seconds) and Amazing Race (17), but it is significant for a Friday show, and CBS hopes it can build on the show's promising initial ratings on the tough night.  Just missing the chart below is Late Show with David Letterman (9 seconds per hour), substantially more than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno (5 seconds) or Jimmy Kimmel Live (3 seconds).  Unless the guest is truly newsworthy, however, late night ratings are surprisingly inelastic to promo efforts.   


FOX.  Breaking In has edged up to 12 seconds per hour, up from 10 recently.  And the return of Touch is at a barely-committed 10 seconds per hour.  And pity poor Bob's Burgers (not shown on the chart below) whose return is starting with a base of 6 seconds per hour.  Not that any of those shows will make much of an impact in any scenario -- it's just that FOX doesn't seem to be betting on anything.   



                          PROMO WATCH

Over halfway through the February ratings sweep, the broadcast networks continue to exhibit very different strategies in allocating their precious on-air promotion time to market and launch new programs as well as supporting their existing schedules.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


NBC.  NBC continues to promote fewer priorities each with massive levels of support.  Over the past few weeks in prime time, NBC has devoted 29 seconds per hour on average to the new drama Awake, the highest level on any network.  The complexity of the story (when is he awake? when is he dreaming? are there two dream worlds or just one?) requires longer-length spots (most often 45-second lengths in this case).  And because of NBC's ratings shortfalls, these spots are running very frequently to extend the campaign's reach as much as possible.  As the table below illustrates, a 20-second average per hour is a high allocation for most networks.  How is NBC doing this? Quite simply by promoting far fewer programs at the roughly 5 second per hour maintenance level for exiting shows.  Many marginal shows (and there are plenty to choose from on the NBC schedule) are getting zero promotion to create more time for future shows.  Smash also continues to receive a high level of support (26 seconds per hour on average).  Notably, the campaign has shifted away from tired lines like "She's a STAR!" or "She glows!" to a reliance on quotes from superb critical reviews and most recently this past week many lines suggesting sex (who is sleeping with whom, who is straight and who is gay) will play a major role in the next few episodes.   The third priority, Fashion Star (18 seconds per hour), would be #1 on most other networks is also being hit hard, still promising that viewers can buy the winning designs in stores the next day.  Finally, The Voice (10 seconds per hour) celebrates the playful judges who will "charm" and "flirt" with the contestants and the audience.

ABC.  Revenge (19 seconds per hour) has been the #1 priority on ABC for the past few weeks.  The network really wants to make the show work, promising it's "not too late" to join the fun.  But history shows it is incredibly tough to actually convince viewers to join a serialized drama in progress.  GCB (15 seconds per hour) is being promoted most often with a 30-second rhyming spot that drops the word "bitches" (from the show's original title) just as one expects to hear it uttered (with not so clever rhymes like "riches" or "stitches" or "witches").   But at 15 seconds per hour, this is far from a full court press.  Other shows (The River, Castle, Cougar Town and the Grey's Anatomy/Private Practice crossover event) received decent levels at 10 seconds per hour or more, but nothing is really receiving the all-in bet of a winner.  Curiously, the Oscars is the next level down (at 9 seconds per hour).  Perhaps it is a wise decision.   The lack of broadly appealing movies among the nominees and the dearth of close races in many categories will probably make the Academy Awards one of the lowest-rated in history, no matter how many promos they throw at it.  And let's face it, the return of Billy Chrystal as host will not draw many viewers under 40 or 50.   New dramas Missing starring Ashley Judd (7 seconds) and Scandal (5 seconds) come later in the spring.  If the promo allocation numbers start increasing for either, we will know how ABC really feels about the shows.  Scandal is promoted almost exclusively inside Shonda Rhimes' own real estate Thursdays 9-11 pm (inside Grey's and Private Practice). 


CBS.  The return of Survivor and Amazing Race (each at 17 seconds per hour) were the main priorities the past few weeks.  As established franchises, they certainly did not warrant much more time. Person of Interest (15 seconds) and Unforgettable (13 seconds) represent an attempt to take these freshman dramas to another level, with the former having a much better chance of inching up in the ratings than the former.   A high number of CBS shows receive about 5 seconds per hour, barely maintenance/ reminder levels, but the CBS audience is loyal and does need much convincing to stay with what they like and know.  


FOX. The #1 priority on FOX is a lowly 14 seconds per hour for Glee.  Everything is changing, the spot promises, suggesting weddings and pregnancies might be coming.  The audience is skeptical and savvy, however, and this spot feels like it might be over-promising.   The one new show getting a decent level of promotion is Breaking In (with Megan Mullally joining the cast), but at only 10 seconds per hour, the spots will have limited ability to cut through the clutter.  With so many key shows in decline and nothing new on the horizon, FOX just isn't sure what to push.   



                          PROMO WATCH
                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled

                 Past Two Weeks (Feb 6-19, 2011)
      ABC                          CBS
     Revenge            19        Survivor           17
     GCB                15        Amazing Race       17
     The River          13        Person of Interest 15
     Castle             11        Unforgettable      13
     Cougar Town        11        NCIS Los Angeles   10
     Grey's/Private     10
      crossover 


     NBC                          FOX
     Awake              29        Glee               14
     Smash              26        American Idol      13
     Fashion Star       18        Alcatraz           11
     The Voice          10        New Girl           10
                                  Breaking In        10