Movie Box Review

Today;  Sumner Redstone's Shop

US Release:  May 6

US Gross:  $177,988,100

Overseas Gross:  $261,700,000

Worldwide Total:  $439,688,100

US Release:  June 24

US Gross:  $157,281,396

Worldwide Total: $536,579,401

 

With over $600M in domestic boxoffice so far and over $900M overseas (and both of those numbers are with Transformers just having opened), Paramount is having a healthy summer--although due to its conservative financing strategies, perhaps not quite as lucrative as it looks.

Even with a $200M production cost plus another $150M or so for worldwide marketing, THOR should turn a comfortable profit (the sequel's opening date has already been set for July 26, 2013).  However, it was self-financed by Marvel Studios, leaving Paramount with a distribution fee that's good to have but not the same as ownership.  (And now that Disney owns Marvel, Paramount's own studio competitor will reap those benefits in the long-term.)

Similarly, KUNG FU PANDA 2 is a DreamWorks Animation production that's merely distributed by Paramount.  Even with 3D ticket premiums, the US gross won't measure up to the original Kung Fu's $215M earnings, but as with other franchises, the overseas revenues may more than make up for that.  However, Paramount again will only have a slice of those monies as distributor.

SUPER 8 was produced by Paramount, and on a budget (they claim $50M, although it'd be hard to find many non-employees who believe that).  More realistically, the combination of production and marketing costs probably comes to around $200M.  With its US theatrical release almost done, the picture will need some healthy overseas business to show much profit, and Paramount is rolling it out slowly, so we're probably weeks away from knowing whether the ultimate ink will be black.  In any case, it won't be a box-office bonanza.

Like, for example, TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON.  It's possible Transformers 3 will "only" make $350M domestically, but it has an excellent chance of overperforming internationally, and getting to at least the $835M worldwide level of Transformers 2.  It's a co-production with DreamWorks, and not only does that mean a profit split, but doubtless the studios have to give large chunks of the back-end to director Michael Bay and Executive Producer Steven Spielberg; this, however, is what's called a "good" problem.  Not only that, but the franchise is sure to continue, and it's much less tied to casting than, say, Pirates of the Caribbean (in other words, would anyone miss Shia LaBoeuf if he weren't there?).  So those robots could keep crunching each other for many installments to come.

The conservatism of Paramount's business strategy is matched by its creative vision.

Thor is a pompous superhero tale with more spectacle than is good for it, narratively speaking.  Luckily for Paramount and Marvel, it opened the same summer as Green Lantern, which has made all other superhero movies around it look better by comparison.

Kung Fu Panda 2 is a fairly high-quality sequel, and marks perhaps the first time in their shared history that DreamWorks can claim higher storytelling marks than Pixar.  But both sequels pale next to Paramount's own springtime Rango and Fox's Rio in terms of imagination and high-intensity fun.

Super 8 is an "original" story only in the most technical sense of the term, being a slavish homage to the Spielberg films of the 1970s and early 80s.  Creatively, it's entertaining but entirely second-hand.

Transformers 3 is... well, it's better than the other Transformers movies.  So there's that.

CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER - July 22:  Oddly enough, this picture may best be remembered as the longest and most expensive trailer ever, for next summer's Marvel extravaganza THE AVENGERS... which will be released by Disney.  Captain America itself, shoehorned in between Harry Potter and Cowboys and Aliens, could find itself overlooked, and the middling success of X-Men:  First Class suggests some audience resistance to the notion of period superhero movies.  After America's release, the studio sits out the month of August (probably to the great relief of its marketing department).

THE MONEY:   B-:  Paramount has avoided any financial black holes, but it has limited a generous upside by distributing rather than owning too many pictures.   

THE QUALITY:  B-:  The studio hasn't released anything terrible, nor anything that's even tried to be great.  It's a factory, and so far none of its summer products have needed to be recalled--or remembered.


Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

GREEN LANTERN cost at least as much as Thor ($350-400M with worldwide marketing), and will probably open around 15% lower--and Thor is no blockbuster hit.  Which means that although intensive promos got bodies into theatres, Warners and DC aren't out of the woods.  The picture only scored a B on Cinemascore despite what must have been a ton of comic book movie fans buying tickets, so word of mouth may be painful on this one.

There was a time when the MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS number would have been OK, because DVD sales would have made up for lackluster boxoffice.  But at a cost of at least $200M, and with the DVD market having cratered, it doesn't look good.  Big loser is Jim Carrey, who's now clearly off the A-list.

SUPER 8 had a very solid hold, although considering where it started, it will still only be a modest grosser (and Paramount had to invest in heavy Week 2 marketing expense).   The other holdovers continued pretty much as they had been, with all the franchises heading to series lows, X-MEN declining sharply (so much for good reviews) and BRIDESMAIDS holding like a champion.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is starting to look like an indie juggernaut--it's now certain to be Woody Allen's highest grosser since Hannah and Her Sisters in 1986 (although a comparison of those two would require serious adjustment for ticket price inflation). TREE OF LIFE expanded again to 114 theatres, and it's per-theatre number is starting to falter:  compare its $10K/theatre to the $18K Midnight In Paris made when it hit 154 theatres.  BEGINNERS is keeping its head above water, doubling to 44 theatres and heading for around $8K in each.

THE ART OF GETTING BY is a negligible picture that Fox Searchlight didn't figure out how to market--with a disastrous $1500 per theatre, it'll vanish quickly.

Next weekend is all CARS 2, and the only question is how it will compare to previous Pixar openings.  the $110M Toy Story 3 made is unlikely, so it'll be looking at the $60-70M earned by the original Cars and other recent Pixars like Wall-E and Up.  BAD TEACHER is R-rated counterprogramming that should find a place in 2d; it'll be interesting to see whether direct competition finally slows Bridesmaids down.  Looking slightly farther down the road, Paramount announced that TRANSFORMERS 3 will start its 3D and IMAX engagements on Tuesday June 28, giving the movie a giant "July 4th weekend" that will last a full week. 

We'll see if SUPER 8 gets to $40M, but in any case Paramount has done the season's best job of managing expectations.  Considering that they've been throwing millions into promoting the movie since the Super Bowl, the idea that the lowest action opening of the summer is somehow good news is a beautiful piece of spin.  Remember that although Super 8 is low-budget by blockbuster standards, it still carries the typical $150M+ in worldwide marketing costs, which puts profit a distance away.--and the B+ average it got from Cinemascore is nothing to sing about, especially since the opening night audience for this should have been pure fanbase.

The X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS hold is disappointing.  This is a high-quality movie that should have benefitted from strong word of mouth, but the combination of the 1960s setting and the no-star cast seems to have turned some audiences off.  It could wind up as the lowest-grossing title in its franchise.

Similarly, Hangover, Kung Fu Panda and Pirates are all heading for the lowest grosses (domestically) of their respective series, although Kung Fu had a nice 3rd week hold--deservedly so.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS saw its per-theatre number come down to earth to around $5500 as it expanded swiftly to nearly 1000 screens--but I'm sure Woody Allen isn't complaining, since even with average holds, it should match Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point as one of his most successful films of the past 25 years.

TREE OF LIFE is expanding more slowly, up to only 47 theatres, and it's holding pretty firmly at around $17K per theatre.  Same for BEGINNERS, which inched up to 19 theatres and should do around $12K in each.  

On the occasion of Super 8's release, the Top 10 movies directed by Steven Spielberg:

10. THE SUGARLAND EXPRESS (1974):  His first feature film, it suggests that had he never touched a special effect in his life, Spielberg would still have been a great American filmmaker.  A movie about celebrity and family that moves like a dream and anticipates reality television decades before it existed, it also has the best performance of Goldie Hawn's career.

1.   SCHINDLER'S LIST (1993):  Yes, it's sentimental and can be criticized as the Holocaust movie where almost all the characters survive.  It's also the single greatest scripted account of the supreme event of the 20th Century.  Spielberg earned his accolades and, finally, his Oscar.

JJ Abrams' SUPER 8 is the Beatlemania of Steven Spielberg movies.   Abrams is no doubt absolutely genuine in his reverence for classics from the 1970s and 80s like Jaws, Close Encounters, ET, Poltergeist and The Goonies, all produced or directed by the master--Abrams even brought Spielberg himself on as a producer of the movie--but as they said in that very unSpielbergian series The Wire, you come at the king, you best not miss. 

I am exactly the right age to appreciate SUPER 8, which in itself is bad news for Paramount.  I cut school to see Close Encounters on opening day, and stood on line at the Movieland in Times Square for something like 4 hours to see a sneak preview of ET a couple of weeks before it opened.  (Later that summer, there would be a weekend where Spielberg had 3 movies simultaneously in the Top 10:  ET, Poltergeist--which rumor said he'd co-directed as well as produced--and a re-release of Raiders Of the Lost Ark.)  All of this says I'm out of the demo that drives summer blockbusters in 2011, and since Super 8 exists solely to be a feature-length homage to that era, it's a big reason the film has been tracking badly at the weekend boxoffice.  The studio has been desperately trying to raise word of mouth among younger audiences, including promotions with movie geek websites, Twitter and day-long "previews" of the film.

The bigger problem, though, is that great word of mouth requires something like a great film.  Super 8 conscientiously assembles the pieces of a Spielberg movie, but it lacks his essence; Spielberg didn't make his great movies the way that he did because he was trying to be "Spielbergian" (that would come later, in the sad days of Hook and Always), but because it was his vision of the world.  JJ Abrams is trying, not without skill, to dub his voice onto Steven Spielberg's song. 

Super 8 is set, of course, in a comfortable small town, where our hero Joe (Joel Courtney) has had his young life touched by a tragedy, the accidental death of his mother.  Joe's deputy sheriff dad (Kyle Chandler) is doing the best he can, but he's too staggered by his own grief to really make contact with Joe.  The boy instead throws himself into helping his friend Charles (Riley Griffiths) make an amateur zombie movie; Joe is in charge of make-up and other technical tasks, while their other friends (Gabriel Basso, Ryan Lee, Zach Mills) provide acting, pyrotechnics and similar necessaries.  Most important, Charles has talked Alice (Elle Fanning) into joining the cast, and she's an ideal first love for Joe, being both beautiful and forbidden (Joe's dad wants nothing to do with her family, because her drunken father contributed to Joe's mother's death).  Of course, Super 8 isn't really about the making of that zombie movie--as all the trailers have made clear, the kids' camera is on when a military train crashes spectacularly outside town, and something... dangerous... gets loose.  

I won't say much more about the story,  both to avoid spoilers and because there's not much to say; in its latter stages, Super 8 owes almost as much to Roger Corman as to Spielberg.  You won't really be surprised when you see what was in that train, or the ways the young filmmakers team up to protect the town.  All through the film, Abrams does everything he can to suggest the look and feel of Spielberg's movies--Larry Fong's photography has the kind of light flares that Allen Daviau provided in ET, Michael Giacchino has composed a lush John Williams-style score (although lacking the tunefulness that make Williams' themes still hummable 30 years later), and so on. 

Sadly, Abrams never manages to measure up to his model.  For one thing, he simply doesn't have Spielberg's genius with objects.  Think of the way the director used the phonograph and toy in the scene in Close Encounters where the aliens take Melinda Dillon's son, or the stuffed animals and candy in ET, or the blank television set in Poltergeist.  You can't copy that kind of instinctive lyricism; you either have it, or--if you aren't Steven Spielberg--you don't.
(SUPER 8 - Paramount - 112 minutes - PG 13 - Director/Script:  JJ Abrams - Cast:  Joel Courtney, Elle Fanning, Kyle Chandler, Ron Eldard, Ryan Griffiths, Ryan Lee, Gabriel Basso, Zach Mills - Wide Release)

Here at ShowbuzzDaily, we like to think that we're smarter than anyone else.  But more importantly, we like to think we're smarter than each other.  So the two of us here (Mitch Metcalf and your humble narrator Mitch Salem) decided to pick our own slates of summer movies to compete against each other, each of us stubborn in the belief that our list of films will, by Labor Day, outgross the total US boxoffice of the other's. 

We followed the general draft rules used by pro sports leagues (when they're not mid-strike or -lockout):  Mitch M graciously gave me the first pick, and then we alternated through 2 dozen movies that will be opening between May 6 and August 12.  At the traditional end of the summer season on Labor Day, one of us will have bragging rights and the other will have to call the winner "Mr. Mitch"--at least until it's time for the Holiday Blockbuster Draft in November.

Here's a transcript of our choices, cleansed of four-letter words and threats of violence.  Remember to check back here every week for an update on who's ahead and who's Mitch Metcalf.  (I kid, I kid.)

MS:  I'll start with the obvious.  HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (July 15), aka Harry Potter 8.  It's a rock-solid franchise, and this is the final chapter in a story that's been followed for more than a decade by millions of fans--plus it's in 3D.  Go Gryffindor!

MM:  TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON (July 1).  Summer is all about heat and blowing stuff up.  Plus there's always room for the art of Michael Bay!

MS:  PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES (May 20).  Audiences love them some Johnny Depp on a pirate ship, and even though the last installment was awful, this time there's Penelope Cruz and those tasty 3D ticket premiums.

MM:  KUNG FU PANDA 2 (May 26).  The theme of franchises continues.  Since I just missed Jack Sparrow (aaarrghh! or however one spells that pirate utterance), I'll go with the lovable Jack Black.  Besides, the ads promise it's "Kung Fu-ier"!

MS:  I guess this is why Hollywood worships franchises.  At least THE HANGOVER PART 2 (May 26) isn't a superhero or a cartoon.  The R rating makes a rare appearance in the list of top grossers (heavy on the "gross").

MM:  CARS 2 (June 24).  OK, now I'm pissed.  Hangover 2 was my next pick because it has explosive potential if it's half as good as the original (I hear it's actually going to deliver).  Oh well, I also have confidence in Pixar.  It's just not as cool...

MS:  I'm proud to announce the first non-sequel pick of this draft:  JJ Abrams' (not to mention Steven Spielberg's) SUPER 8 (June 10).  It already has the best trailer of the summer.

MM:  COWBOYS & ALIENS (July 29).  OK, Salem, this is really getting annoying.  Conventional wisdom has other sequels ahead of Super 8, but it will probably be the one that surprises the most and could seal my draft fate.  Well played.  In the vein of explosions and with a "your peanut butter's in my chocolate" combination of genres, I am betting this one delivers popcorn fun. 

MS:  Cowboys & Aliens probably has the most intriguing premise of the summer blockbusters, so it could get that late summer Inception audience... if it works.  Now that we're past the sure things, I'm taking X MEN:  FIRST CLASS (June 3), a reboot that doesn't include any of the original cast, but has a group of really strong actors (James McAvoy!  Michael Fassbender!  Jennifer Lawrence!  January Jones!  Rose Byrne!) plus Matthew Vaughn, the director of Kick-Ass.

MM:  CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Now it does get interesting.  Despite some disappointing TV commercials (that need to be improved), I'm going with the jingoistic ring of the title.  As oppposed to Green Lantern, which many will think was already released this winter with Seth Rogen in the lead.

MS:  I agree, Captain America looks better than Green Lantern--I'm just not sure that's saying much.  I'm going back to the future with RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (August 5).  It's a risk, because the last one wasn't that long ago (and wasn't that good), and it stars James Franco, who suddenly doesn't look like the next big thing... but early glimpses of the CG apes are awfully impressive.

MM:  THOR (May 6).  Now is the time we'd like to be flies on the wall in studio screening rooms.  Not even to see the films themselves, just the expressions on the executive's faces.  I'm betting Thor's well-reviewed story will push it over the top.  Or it just might be, well, over the top.  Looking forward to your take in Friday's review.

MS:  I'm a few hours away from seeing Thor--and suddenly not rooting for it so hard.  I'm going to radically switch genres and hope the Hangover audience still has an appetite for some summer raunch:  BAD TEACHER (June 24), with Cameron Diaz as the titular civil servant.

MM:  That would put her back on the map.  My next pick is ZOOKEEPER (July 8).  It's got animals galore and Kevin James, who has delivered before (Paul Blart).

MS:  Damn, that was going to be my next one--I agree, Zookeeper's in a great position to hit the sweet spot with its target audience.  Ah well... I think we're both united in not thinking much of GREEN LANTERN's (June 17) prospects as superhero movies go, but still it's a big-time 3D spectacle, so it's going to make some dough.  I'm just glad it's Warners and not us who'll be worrying about matching the green lantern with the red ink.

MM:  I'm going to dip my toe into the romantic comedy waters with LARRY CROWNE (July 1).  Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, with Hanks also co-writing and directing.  What could possibly go wrong?  I know, I know--everything.  But we shall see.

MS:  Leading my personal list of "Do I really have to see this?" summer movies, but still likely to draw in some kids (and stoners):  THE SMURFS (July 29).

MM:   I'm going with BRIDESMAIDS (May 13), hoping it's the female Hangover. I know it won't be, but I'm still bitter about losing the real sequel and am not thinking clearly.

MS:  In the same genre, I'm taking FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (July 22), the red-band version of No Strings Attached.  It's directed by Will Gluck, who made the sleeper hit Easy A last fall, and maybe lightning will strike twice.

MM:  Which Steve Carell will show up in CRAZY STUPID LOVE (July 29)?  In the right vehicle he's incredibly appealing.  Otherwise he's dead weight in clunkers.  I'm voting for the former (admittedly knowing very little about the film).

MS:  August is a strange month to launch a weighty historical movie that might want to be remembered at awards time.  But I'm going to take a shot that the fans who kept THE HELP (August 12) on bestseller lists for 2 years will come out to support it as a film.

MM:  I'm going to go with a subject we all know something about:  HORRIBLE BOSSES (July 8).  Enough said.

MS: True enough.  With my last pick, I'm taking Jesse Eisenberg, Danny McBride and Aziz Ansari in 30 MINUTES OR LESS (August 12) and hoping for the best.  Which I believe leaves you with...

MM:  MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS (June 17)!  Oh hooray.  The lamest title on the slate, and it's all mine.  Really feels like a Jim Carrey stinker.  Well, this has actually been fun.  On to the summer!

To summarize, here are our summer slates:

Remember to check back here every week for an update on our scores!