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Showing posts with label 30 minutes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 30 minutes. Show all posts

The Sked: SMASH PREMIERE Minute by Minute Ratings

1:03 PM | Labels: , , , ,

The chart below displays the minute by minute Nielsen ratings for the series debut of Smash Monday at 10 pm on NBC.  The news is awful for the first 20 minutes or so, but then the premiere episode stabilized in the ratings for the last 40 minutes.

NBC started the show at 10:00, running seamlessly out of The Voice (no commercial break between the two shows).  Next, the first commercial break in Smash did not hit until about 10:18 pm, another common technique for a new show to get the audience engaged in the program.  However, the Adult 18-49 rating for Smash dropped continuously with each passing minute during this extended first act.  The first minute of the program was almost a 7 rating with Adults 18-49, but by the second minute it was well under a 6 and by minute five it fell below a 5 rating.  The rate of decline began to ease, but the audience continued to drift down to a 4 rating by minute 18.

Then the show began to stabilize.  The second act (minutes 23-31) was a relatively flat line around a 3.7 rating, the third act (minutes 37-44) was a flat line around a 3.5, and the final act (minutes 48-55) was another flat line also around a 3.5.  The commercial breaks generally dipped to a 3 rating or just below.  


Putting aside the first 18 minutes when almost half of the initial audience stampeded to the exits, the rest of the show was a fairly stable 3.4 rating (including both program and commercial content).  A reasonable target would be a 3.0 rating for week two of Smash.  Shows almost always go down in the second week (particularly after a massive marketing campaign).  A 3.0 would represent a moderate (approximately 10%) decline from the "true" or core rating for the premiere, as opposed to a 20% decline from the inflated 3.8 rating for the entire first hour.     


  

  

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FRIDAY AUGUST 19 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:11 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Help sits at the top of the heap thanks to a terrific 19% drop in its second weekend and especially thanks to the very weak crop of openers that make up that heap.  Spy Kids 4, Conan the Barbarian and Fright Night all are opening below forecast and headed for a quick end on VOD and PPV.  No, 3D could not help any of these three entries.  Movie quality is always more important than any given format, but 3D is really floundering.  Overall, the weekend is flat versus the same weekend last year (ending the string of five up weekends in a row).  

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World should open below forecast ($3.9 million Friday for an estimated $12.3 million opening weekend, compared to a $14.5 million prediction).  Spy Kids 4 (in 4D no less! – the fourth dimension is the stale smell of mediocrity) is on track for $31 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics nationwide have been almost universally negative about the film (only 18% positive at RottenTomatoes). 


Conan the Barbarian is opening well below forecast ($3.7 million Friday for an expected $10.8 million this weekend versus a $16.5 million forecast).  Conan is headed for $29 million in North America.  Critics nationwide remain unconvinced about the need for this latest Conan movie (29% positive at RottenTomatoes).   

Fright Night is also opening below forecast ($2.65 million Friday for an expected $8 million this weekend versus a $14 million forecast).  Fright Night is headed for $24 million in North America.  Critics remain extremely positive for this horror movie (74% positive at RottenTomatoes), but that shouldn’t help much as this movie is destined to leave the scene quickly.  Read Mitch Salem's review here.      

One Day is opening near its rather tiny forecast ($1.86 million Friday for an expected $5.3 million this weekend versus a $6 million prediction).  One Day is on pace for $13 million in North America, with a critical drubbing (27% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes).  Read Mitch Salem’s review here. 

In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions.     

The Help continues its very solid run with a second weekend drop of only 19% and an increase in booked theaters this week (+156), while Final Destination 5 is having an expected 57% decline in its second weekend.  In its third weekend, Rise of the Planet of the Apes should drop a very good 41% (even better than the 49% decline last week). 
  
August 19-21, 2011      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
The Help (DW/Dis)        [$20  ]    $21.0   $ 5.8     $133++
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$16  ]    $16.5   $ 4.6     $181+
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$14.5]    $12.3   $ 3.9     $ 31
Conan the Barbarian (LG) [$16.5]    $10.8   $ 3.7     $ 29
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$ 9  ]    $ 8.5   $ 2.2     $144
Fright Night (DW/Dis)    [$14  ]    $ 8.0   $ 2.6     $ 24
Final Destination 5 (WB) [$ 8.5]    $ 7.7   $ 2.4     $ 47
30 Minutes or Less (Sony)[$ 7  ]    $ 6.5   $ 2.0     $ 41
One Day (Focus)          [$ 6  ]    $ 5.3   $ 1.9     $ 13
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$ 4.5]    $ 5.0   $ 1.5     $ 80
Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$ 4.5]    $ 4.7   $ 1.2     $376

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 

Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (results to come later):
-- Amigo (drama) at 11 theaters
-- Mozart’s Sister (foreign) at seven theaters
-- 5 Days of War (action drama) at two theaters
-- Flypaper (crime comedy) at two theaters
-- Programming the Nation? (documentary) at one theater


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $110 million total, flat versus the same calendar weekend last year when Vampires Suck, Lottery Ticket and Piranha 3D opened (wow, what an opening weekend from hell to match this one).  

 Top 12 Films: Weekend #33
     Volume     (millions)
2011  $110  (+10% vs 2007-10 average; +0% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $100
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $110  Vampires Suck $12 Lottery Ticket $11 Piranha $10    
2009  $112  Inglorious Basterds $38, Shorts $6, Post Grad $3
2008  $ 89  The House Bunny $14.5, Death Race $13
2007  $ 89  Mr Bean’s Holiday $10, War $10, Nanny Diaries $7.5


Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.


Next Weekend

Opening next week are Columbiana from Sony, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark from FilmDistrict, and Our Idiot Brother from Weinstein.  Those movies will be compared to Takers ($20.5 million opening weekend), Last Exorcism ($20.4 million) and Avatar: Special Edition ($4 million). 

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Mid-Week Update

3:18 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


With Monday and Tuesday numbers in, here are some notes about how the new arrivals are holding up:

THE HELP continues its impressive run:  its $8.3M on Monday-Tuesday represents a very robust 32% of its weekend total.  All signs continue to point to a strong second weekend hold, especially since early reviews for its direct competitor ONE DAY are fairly disastrous, running at only 28% positive on RottenTomatoes.


FINAL DESTINATION 5, on the other hand, has weekday numbers of $3.9M, a measly 22% of its $18M weekend.  Not unusually for its genre, it should flame out quickly--which would potentially leave the way clear for Dreamworks/Disney's FRIGHT NIGHT, if anyone cared that that movie exists.  (The studio has scheduled "Sneak Peek" screenings of the latter film around 9PM Thursday night, in an effort to build word of mouth for those who can't be roused for a midnight show.)

30 MINUTES OR LESS is holding better in a percentage sense, with $3.7M equaling 28% of its weekend--but at those numbers, even a good hold won't mean much.  Its main competition this weekend is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, a movie which while only at 44% on RottenTomatoes, doesn't care much about its reviews.

In the same boat as 30 Minutes only more so (less so?) is GLEE 3D, whose $1.6M is 27% of its weekend as it heads to oblivion.  Supplanting it in the hearts of young viewers this weekend will be SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, billed as being in "4D" because it features odors as well as objects protruding from the screen.  The Weinstein Company seems to have little interest in showing this one to critics.

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 14

12:28 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


Now that THE HELP has opened about as well as Dreamworks/Disney could have hoped, the next goal is a 2d weekend decline of around 40%.  That would match the hold of Julie & Julia, and would make a $100M gross for Help very realistic.  The film's only direct competition next weekend is the seemingly wan ONE DAY (which is only in around 1600 theatres, among other things).

The FINAL DESTINATION series would be over (or pre-reboot, as we might as well called discarded franchises these days) except that foreign results are more important than domestic here, and those numbers aren't in yet.

We'll see how the numbers play out, but right now, Sony is claiming the lowest Sunday decline for any movie in the Top 10, in what appears to be a desperately sad attempt to get 30 MINUTES OR LESS above a lousy $13M for its opening weekend.

The only notable new limited release was SENNA with a very nice $35K in each of 2 theatres, but there were a slew of expansions from slightly older films.  None of them seem hugely promising, but some did better than others (all numbers are per-theatre):  SARAH'S KEY $4600 in 101, THE GUARD $5900 in 47, THE DEVIL'S DOUBLE $2800 in 89, ANOTHER EARTH $1800 in 82, THE WHISTLEBLOWER $5100 in 22, and ATTACK THE BLOCK $2500 in 40.  Considering that even Final Destination 5 averaged $5800 in over 3000 theatres this weekend, there don't seem to be any potential breakout hits in this group.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for international numbers as soon as they're available later today, and Mitch Metcalf's report on this weekend's actual grosses tomorrow.




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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Early Weekend Numbers

10:35 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,


Deadline has preliminary numbers for Saturday and the weekend, and any worries that THE HELP would suffer from front-loading are out the window.  Rather amazingly, the picture seems to have climbed more than 25% from Friday to Saturday, and it seems likely to get near $25M for the weekend and $35M since its opening on Wednesday.  DreamWorks/Disney's seemingly odd decision to open the movie in the dead of August is looking pretty damn smart right now.

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should still win the weekend with about $26.5M, representing a good second weekend decline of a bit over 50%.  As expected, FINAL DESTINATION 5 took a Saturday hit, and may not get to $18M for the weekend, while 30 MINUTES OR LESS held about even and is still headed for a meager $13M.  Saddest of all is GLEE 3D, which turned out not just to be a flop, but a front-loaded one:  it seems to have plummeted more than 35% from Friday to Saturday, making for a pathetic $5.5M weekend.  (Is the Gleek audience starting to suffer from Glee overload?  Suddenly the TV series ratings for the new season don't seem like a certainty.)

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for Mitch Metcalf's full weekend report and analysis in the morning, and international numbers as soon as they're available.

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 13

1:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Let's take a look at just how remarkably THE HELP is performing so far.  

The most obvious points of comparison are the literary-sourced, female-skewing hits of the last 2 Augusts:  Julie & Julia in 2009, and last year's Eat Pray Love.  Julia had a $20M opening that led to a $94M domestic gross; Eat was a little more front-loaded, with a $23M start on its way to an $80M total.  The Help will beat Julia's opening and has a fair chance of surpassing both of them--but only Help came to Friday with $10M already in the bank thanks to its Wednesday opening, which doesn't seem to have dampened its weekend at all.  Also, while both Julia and Eat were escapist entertainments, with easily promotable subjects like gourmet food and fabulous foreign locations (along with stars like Meryl Streep, Amy Adams and Julia Roberts), The Help is a serious period piece about the Civil Rights era that features Emma Stone only as part of an ensemble of mostly African-American actresses.    (These factors, however, may be more serious hindrances overseas, where Help is more likely to echo Julia's $35M boxoffice than Eat's lofty $124M.)  Oh, and Help's budget is $25M, far below Julia's $40M and Eat's $60M.

DreamWorks seems to have captured the audience that Lionsgate was hoping to get last year with Tyler Perry's For Colored Girls:  a combination of African-American and arthouse crowds.  It's very hard to tell how this will play out over time, as the African-American audience is notoriously front-loaded (as has been the case with all of Perry's movies), while arthouses are exactly the opposite.  In any case, The Help faces little direct competition over the next several weeks:  just One Day next Friday (which Focus has been oddly shy about marketing), Sarah Jessica Parker's I Don't Know How She Does It on September 16, and then on a more general prestige-movie level, Moneyball the following week.

Along with the immediate financial return, the success of The Help should help give it credence in the march to year-end awards--although this gets complicated.  DreamWorks has a little movie called War Horse on its way from studio patriarch Steven Spielberg, and that film will almost certainly get the lion's share of the Best Picture push.  However, War Horse is less likely to be in contention for performance awards, so the way is clear for DreamWorks to push Help's cast for Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  The question, though, will be:  who in which category?  This is especially important for Viola Davis, who would probably be the early frontrunner for Supporting Actress right now, but arguably is as much the lead in Help as Emma Stone--however, if Davis chooses to campaign for Actress, she'll face competition like Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.  

Of course, these are high-class problems to have.

The rest of the Friday numbers are far less interesting.  RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES had a perfectly decent hold, but one that feels a little soft given its supposedly excellent word of mouth. The flop of 30 MINUTES OR LESS demonstrates that Jesse Eisenberg and Aziz Ansari aren't yet boxoffice draws, and that (especially combined with Your Highness earlier this year) Danny McBride is at best a cult figure who puts off as many people as he attracts.  FINAL DESTINATION 5 will probably top out at about $50M, but the big question is how it will do overseas, where the last chapter in the franchise almost doubled its US gross.  And GLEE 3D won't make any profit (unless it scores a hit on homevideo), but serves as an infomercial for the TV series mothership.

A quiet week for limited releases, with the documentary SENNA pulling in the only opening of any note, a very solid $30-35K in each of its 2 theatres.  

When they talk about the dog days of summer, next weekend is what they mean.  Along with the previously mentioned and curiously unpublicized ONE DAY (starring Anne Hathaway, based on a high-quality, best-selling novel--where's the buzz?), we get not one, not two, but three 3D reboots of pictures that weren't all that good the first time:  CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS.  A good weekend to go to the beach, or catch up on your DVR queue.




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FRIDAY AUGUST 12 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

8:34 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Rise of the Planet of the Apes will remain #1, followed closely by The Help, which is running well above its ShowBuzzDaily weekend forecast.  Final Destination 5 should be in third place with a decent number but still below its forecast.  30 Seconds or Less and Glee: The 3D Concert Movie are lagging, both under forecast.  Overall, the weekend is up 2% versus the same weekend last year (a nominal increase after four significant increases in a row).  

The Help is opening above forecast ($7.5 million Friday for an expected $23.5 million this weekend versus a $17 million forecast).  The five-day total should be $33.5 million, when Wednesday and Thursday are factored in.  The Help is headed for $86 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers (which will be quite low for this film) will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics remain quite positive nationwide (73% positive at RottenTomatoes).  Read Mitch Salem's review here.    


Final Destination 5 should open below forecast ($7.3 million Friday for an estimated $18.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $21.5 million prediction).  Final Destination 5 is on track for $49 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been mixed to slightly positive about the film (55% positive at RottenTomatoes).  In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions. 

30 Minutes or Less is opening below forecast ($4.5 million Friday for an expected $13.7 million this weekend versus a $17.5 million forecast).  30 Minutes or Less is headed for $40 million in North America.  Critics remain mixed about the comedy (46% positive).  Read Mitch Salem's review here.      

Glee: The 3D Concert Movie is opening below forecast ($2.8 million Friday for an expected $6.7 million this weekend versus a $8 million forecast).  Glee is headed for $19 million in North America, with 63% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.    

Rise of the Planet of the Apes should drop an acceptable 52% from its first weekend (not bad for a sci-fi movie), while The Change-Up should fall an expected 54% (pretty soft for a comedy).  The Smurfs should drop a very good 37%, continuing its solid run.  Also in its third weekend, Cowboys & Aliens is looking like it will fall another 54%, while Crazy, Stupid, Love will drop a solid 42%. 


August 12-14, 2011      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$27  ]    $26.5   $ 8.1     $169++
The Help (Dis/DW)        [$17  ]    $23.5   $ 7.6     $ 86
Final Destination 5 (WB) [$21.5]    $18.5   $ 7.3     $ 49
30 Minutes or Less (Sony)[$17.5]    $13.7   $ 4.8     $ 40
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$12.5]    $13.3   $ 3.8     $139++
Cowboys & Aliens (Uni)   [$ 7.5]    $ 7.2   $ 2.2     $ 99
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$ 7.5]    $ 7.0   $ 2.1     $ 78
Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$ 7  ]    $ 6.8   $ 1.9     $370
Glee 3D Concert (Fox)    [$ 8  ]    $ 6.7   $ 2.7     $ 19
Captain America (Par)    [$ 7  ]    $ 6.5   $ 2.0     $177
The Change-Up (Uni)      [$ 7  ]    $ 6.2   $ 1.9     $ 37


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 


Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (results to come later):
-- Aarakshan (foreign) at 90 theaters
-- Sex and Zen 3D: Extreme Ecstasy (foreign) at one theater
-- Littlerock (drama) at one theater
-- Over Your Cities Grass Will Grow (foreign) at one theater
-- Senna (documentary) at two theaters


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $135 million total, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Expendables and Eat Pray Love opened.  

 Top 12 Films: Weekend #32

     Volume     (millions)
2011  $135  (+11% vs 2007-10 average; +2% vs 2010) 

2007-10

Avg   $121  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $132  Expendables $35, Eat Pray Love $23    
2009  $125  District 9 $37, Time Traveler's Wife $19
2008  $112  Tropic Thunder $26, Star Wars Clone Wars $15
2007  $114  Superbad $33, The Invasion $6

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Spy Kids: All the Time in the World from Weinstein, Conan the Barbarian from Lionsgate, Fright Night from Disney, and One Day from Focus.  Those movies will be compared to Vampires Suck ($12 million opening weekend), Lottery Ticket ($11 million) and Piranha 3D ($10 million), making next weekend a possible up weekend versus 2010. 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

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THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: UPDATED: Not-Yet-Final Friday Numbers

8:14 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

Fuller numbers are in, and they show a surprising near-tie on Friday between RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, THE HELP and FINAL DESTINATION 5, all at $7.3-7.8M for the day.  The Apes have the presumptive advantage over the weekend, because 2d weekends are less front-loaded than openings, but since The Help started on Wednesday, that rule may not apply and the race could end up much closer than expected.  (Final Destination 5 is almost certain to fade.)  However the final numbers play out, this is great news for The Help.

30 MINUTES OR LESS is headed for a dim $12M or so over the weekend, and even that looks good compared to GLEE 3D, which may only do $7-8M.  

As to other holdovers, COWBOYS & ALIENS looks to plummet another 50-55%, while CRAZY STUPID LOVE and THE SMURFS had good holds again, falling only 40% or so from last Friday. 


The Hollywood Reporter has some extremely early Friday numbers, and it appears that RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES had a very healthy day with $8.5-9M, which could double its $4.3M Thursday.  If that number holds, it should lead to a $25M+ weekend, which would be a very acceptable 55% or so drop from its opening.

THE HELP, on its smaller scale, is also doing quite well, aiming at about $6M for Friday, which could give it $20M for the weekend and $30M since its Wednesday opening.  Considering that the movie's budget was only $25M (excluding marketing), that would be a very good number.  My review is here.   

FINAL DESTINATION 5's Friday appears to be in Help's neighborhood, but the horror movie cost more ($40M+) and will almost certainly be far more front-loaded. 

After that, the news gets less good for new arrivals:  both GLEE 3D and 30 MINUTES OR LESS (my review of the latter is here) seem to be headed for around $10M for the weekend, with Minutes perhaps a bit ahead.  The Glee concert movie cost less and should do stronger business on homevideo, so that's better news for them than for 30 Minutes.

Check out Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for the latest boxoffice numbers and analysis.

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "30 Minutes Or Less"

3:15 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,


30 MINUTES OR LESS - Watch It At Home:  Doesn't Deliver

The frustration of 30 MINUTES OR LESS is that of all the R-rated comedies this summer, it was the one with the most original premise and promising credentials:  direction by Ruben Fleischer, the man behind the surprisingly smart and funny hit Zombieland, and a cast headed by Jesse Eisenberg and Aziz Ansari.  In the hands of the Coen Brothers, its mix of comedy and doublecross-riddled violent action could have been genius; even with the Guy Ritchie of Lock, Stock & Two Smoking Barrels and Snatch calling the shots, it might have been slick, blackly-comic fun.  The result here, though, is half-baked.


The basic situation is based loosely on a real-life incident:  an innocent was strapped to a bomb and forced to rob a bank as proxy for the real thieves.  (Things didn't end well for the patsy.)  In 30 Minutes Or Less, the victim is Eisenberg as Nick, a pizza guy who heads out to make a routine delivery and finds himself in the hands of Dwayne (Danny McBride) and Travis (Nick Swardson).  Dwayne's demented plan is to use the $100,000 Nick will rob from the bank to hire a hit man (Michael Pena) who will kill Dwayne's stern father (Fred Ward) and enable Dwane to collect dad's lottery winnings.  Meanwhile, Nick's first instinct once he's been wired with explosives is to go to his best friend Chet (Ansari), and even though the two of them have just had a falling-out (Chet found out that Nick slept with his sister; Nick discovered that Chet broke up Nick's parents' marriage), Chet is pal enough to help him rob the bank.  To the credit of the script by Michael Dilberti (based on a story by Dilberti and Matthew Sullivan), that's actually when the movie gets more interesting, and the last section of the picture works the best, as the pieces of the storyline start to come together.  By then, though, a lot of the comedy has dissipated.
 
Zombieland also had a loose structure that accumulated suspense as it went on, but it had its horror movie structure going for it, as well as a letter-perfect cast that was all on the same wavelength.  The performers in 30 Minutes are less unified.   Eisenberg and Ansari make a terrific comic pair, with complimentary passive-agggressive styles (the fact that Eisenberg is co-starring with Woody Allen in Allen's next movie suggests one of those time travel movie bits where Character From the Future can't meet Character From the Past or the time/space continuum will explode).  Pena, too, is hilarious in a more high-energy way when he enters the story in the second half.  The main problem is McBride and Swardson who, if they're not actually incapable of entering into an ensemble (McBride showed that he can modulate his style in Up In the Air), certainly have little interest in doing so.  Instead, they repeat the same broad, imbecile schtick that they do in every single project they take on, which is starting to wear more than a little thin.   Here, it unbalances the entire movie.  (Consumer note:  attached to prints of 30 Minutes are trailers for an upcoming Swardson starring vehicle--from Adam Sandler's production company, of course--called Bucky Larson:  Born To Be A Star, which looks to be an early contender for Worst Movie of the Decade.)

The mixtures of laughter and violent thrills that Fleischer seems to favor--30 Minutes includes a nod to Die Hard--are tricky engines (even the Coens screwed up The Ladykillers), and one or two elements out of place can make the whole vehicle feel silly.  Fleischer is a whiz at pacing--30 Minutes, with credits and a post-credits coda scene, runs only 83 minutes--and amping up the narrative as the story moves forward (mention should also be made of editor Alan Baumgarten), but 30 Minutes needed to be a more complicated piece of work than Zombieland, because the bad guys are humans with motivations, ridiculous but also menacing, who require some degree of emotional believability.  While Pena handles that combination beautifully, McBride and Swardson don't provide anything beyond the most superficial gags. (Fleischer's next picture will be his first straight drama, the big-budget period thriller Gangster Squad with Sean Penn, Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone--it'll be interesting to see how he handles a completely different genre rhythm.)   

Despite its flaws, 30 Minutes Or Less is fairly watchable.  It's great fun to see Eisenberg and Ansari bounce dialogue off each other, and the last act of the story has some effective reversals.  It's the most conceptual of the season's comedies, though, and doesn't find a way to make its parts form a satisfying whole. As delivered, it doesn't earn a tip.

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THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - August 6

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RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES has a slew of positives going for it commercially:  the reportedly fairly low $93M production cost, the month of August ahead with its limited competition, strong support from an older audience that doesn't flock to theatres on opening weekend, a genre and emphasis on visuals that should work internationally--and it's a good movie, too.  Although even with its overperformance this weekend, it won't have one of the summer's biggest openings, there's every reason to think it can be a solid success story for the next several weeks.  It'll be interesting to see how much this does for James Franco's career going forward--he's technically the star of a hit, but barely even gets mentioned as part of its appeal (and rightly so).


THE CHANGE-UP,  by contrast, is nothing but bad news.  Promos were unable to make the movie look less crude or more original than it is, and Ryan Reynolds, who's supposed to have star power in comedies, didn't deliver audiences.  (Jason Bateman is more of a supporting guy even when he's playing a lead.)  Also, as the summer's comedies go, it was relatively expensive to produce at $50M+.  And worse:  next week's 30 Minutes or Less is aiming straight at Change-Up's audience. 

THE SMURFS held quite well; COWBOYS & ALIENS, as expected, didn't.  On that film, international will spell the difference between "flop" and "disaster."  CRAZY STUPID LOVE had a gratifyingly good hold, and may decline less than 40% this weekend--but even though they're in different genres, it does face competition from The Help next week, which is directed at the same older female audience. 

TRANSFORMERS 3 lost 750 theatres this weekend, and with them, probably any chance of holding onto the crown as summer's top grosser; over the next week or so, HARRY POTTER should pull ahead and stay there.  FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS seems to have been hurt by the arrival of R-rated comedy competition from Change-Up, and now may struggle to get past $60M.  HORRIBLE BOSSES, though, continued to hold quite well, and pushed past the $100M mark.  

A quiet weekend for limited releases:  THE WHISTLEBLOWER, a muckraking thriller with Rachel Weisz, seems likely to do around $7500 average in 7 theatres, while in fewer theatres, GUN HILL ROAD (about a father's relationship with his trannsexual child) and BELLFLOWER (semi-apocalyptic adventure-romance) may get to $15K in each of 3 and 2, respectively.  THE MYSTERIES OF LISBON, a 4 1/2 hour drama from director Raul Ruiz, may ride rave reviews to around $5K in each of 2 houses, despite its length.

This was essentially the last big summer weekend for major studio openings.  Next week's crop of The Help, Final Destination 5 3D, 30 Minutes or Less and the Glee 3D concert movie are all modestly budgeted and will be happy with midlevel numbers (the last Final Destination opened with $27M).  Look out for Friday's Glee number, though--that could be one of the most front-loaded pictures of the season.

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THE SHOWBUZZDAILY FIRST ANNUAL SUMMER MOVIE BLOCKBUSTER DRAFT!

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Here at ShowbuzzDaily, we like to think that we're smarter than anyone else.  But more importantly, we like to think we're smarter than each other.  So the two of us here (Mitch Metcalf and your humble narrator Mitch Salem) decided to pick our own slates of summer movies to compete against each other, each of us stubborn in the belief that our list of films will, by Labor Day, outgross the total US boxoffice of the other's. 

We followed the general draft rules used by pro sports leagues (when they're not mid-strike or -lockout):  Mitch M graciously gave me the first pick, and then we alternated through 2 dozen movies that will be opening between May 6 and August 12.  At the traditional end of the summer season on Labor Day, one of us will have bragging rights and the other will have to call the winner "Mr. Mitch"--at least until it's time for the Holiday Blockbuster Draft in November.

Here's a transcript of our choices, cleansed of four-letter words and threats of violence.  Remember to check back here every week for an update on who's ahead and who's Mitch Metcalf.  (I kid, I kid.)

MS:  I'll start with the obvious.  HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (July 15), aka Harry Potter 8.  It's a rock-solid franchise, and this is the final chapter in a story that's been followed for more than a decade by millions of fans--plus it's in 3D.  Go Gryffindor!

MM:  TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON (July 1).  Summer is all about heat and blowing stuff up.  Plus there's always room for the art of Michael Bay!

MS:  PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES (May 20).  Audiences love them some Johnny Depp on a pirate ship, and even though the last installment was awful, this time there's Penelope Cruz and those tasty 3D ticket premiums.

MM:  KUNG FU PANDA 2 (May 26).  The theme of franchises continues.  Since I just missed Jack Sparrow (aaarrghh! or however one spells that pirate utterance), I'll go with the lovable Jack Black.  Besides, the ads promise it's "Kung Fu-ier"!

MS:  I guess this is why Hollywood worships franchises.  At least THE HANGOVER PART 2 (May 26) isn't a superhero or a cartoon.  The R rating makes a rare appearance in the list of top grossers (heavy on the "gross").


MM:  CARS 2 (June 24).  OK, now I'm pissed.  Hangover 2 was my next pick because it has explosive potential if it's half as good as the original (I hear it's actually going to deliver).  Oh well, I also have confidence in Pixar.  It's just not as cool...

MS:  I'm proud to announce the first non-sequel pick of this draft:  JJ Abrams' (not to mention Steven Spielberg's) SUPER 8 (June 10).  It already has the best trailer of the summer.

MM:  COWBOYS & ALIENS (July 29).  OK, Salem, this is really getting annoying.  Conventional wisdom has other sequels ahead of Super 8, but it will probably be the one that surprises the most and could seal my draft fate.  Well played.  In the vein of explosions and with a "your peanut butter's in my chocolate" combination of genres, I am betting this one delivers popcorn fun. 

MS:  Cowboys & Aliens probably has the most intriguing premise of the summer blockbusters, so it could get that late summer Inception audience... if it works.  Now that we're past the sure things, I'm taking X MEN:  FIRST CLASS (June 3), a reboot that doesn't include any of the original cast, but has a group of really strong actors (James McAvoy!  Michael Fassbender!  Jennifer Lawrence!  January Jones!  Rose Byrne!) plus Matthew Vaughn, the director of Kick-Ass.

MM:  CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Now it does get interesting.  Despite some disappointing TV commercials (that need to be improved), I'm going with the jingoistic ring of the title.  As oppposed to Green Lantern, which many will think was already released this winter with Seth Rogen in the lead.

MS:  I agree, Captain America looks better than Green Lantern--I'm just not sure that's saying much.  I'm going back to the future with RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (August 5).  It's a risk, because the last one wasn't that long ago (and wasn't that good), and it stars James Franco, who suddenly doesn't look like the next big thing... but early glimpses of the CG apes are awfully impressive.

MM:  THOR (May 6).  Now is the time we'd like to be flies on the wall in studio screening rooms.  Not even to see the films themselves, just the expressions on the executive's faces.  I'm betting Thor's well-reviewed story will push it over the top.  Or it just might be, well, over the top.  Looking forward to your take in Friday's review.

MS:  I'm a few hours away from seeing Thor--and suddenly not rooting for it so hard.  I'm going to radically switch genres and hope the Hangover audience still has an appetite for some summer raunch:  BAD TEACHER (June 24), with Cameron Diaz as the titular civil servant.

MM:  That would put her back on the map.  My next pick is ZOOKEEPER (July 8).  It's got animals galore and Kevin James, who has delivered before (Paul Blart).

MS:  Damn, that was going to be my next one--I agree, Zookeeper's in a great position to hit the sweet spot with its target audience.  Ah well... I think we're both united in not thinking much of GREEN LANTERN's (June 17) prospects as superhero movies go, but still it's a big-time 3D spectacle, so it's going to make some dough.  I'm just glad it's Warners and not us who'll be worrying about matching the green lantern with the red ink.

MM:  I'm going to dip my toe into the romantic comedy waters with LARRY CROWNE (July 1).  Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, with Hanks also co-writing and directing.  What could possibly go wrong?  I know, I know--everything.  But we shall see.

MS:  Leading my personal list of "Do I really have to see this?" summer movies, but still likely to draw in some kids (and stoners):  THE SMURFS (July 29).

MM:   I'm going with BRIDESMAIDS (May 13), hoping it's the female Hangover. I know it won't be, but I'm still bitter about losing the real sequel and am not thinking clearly.

MS:  In the same genre, I'm taking FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (July 22), the red-band version of No Strings Attached.  It's directed by Will Gluck, who made the sleeper hit Easy A last fall, and maybe lightning will strike twice.

MM:  Which Steve Carell will show up in CRAZY STUPID LOVE (July 29)?  In the right vehicle he's incredibly appealing.  Otherwise he's dead weight in clunkers.  I'm voting for the former (admittedly knowing very little about the film).

MS:  August is a strange month to launch a weighty historical movie that might want to be remembered at awards time.  But I'm going to take a shot that the fans who kept THE HELP (August 12) on bestseller lists for 2 years will come out to support it as a film.

MM:  I'm going to go with a subject we all know something about:  HORRIBLE BOSSES (July 8).  Enough said.

MS: True enough.  With my last pick, I'm taking Jesse Eisenberg, Danny McBride and Aziz Ansari in 30 MINUTES OR LESS (August 12) and hoping for the best.  Which I believe leaves you with...

MM:  MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS (June 17)!  Oh hooray.  The lamest title on the slate, and it's all mine.  Really feels like a Jim Carrey stinker.  Well, this has actually been fun.  On to the summer!

To summarize, here are our summer slates:

SALEM
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean:  On Stranger Tides
The Hangover Part 2 
Super 8
X-Men:  First Class
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Bad Teacher
The Green Lantern
The Smurfs
Friends With Benefits
The Help
30 Minutes or Less

METCALF
Transformers:  Dark of the Moon
Kung Fu Panda 2
Cars 2
Cowboys & Aliens
Captain America:  The First Avenger
Thor
Zookeeper
Larry Crowne
Bridesmaids
Crazy Stupid Love
Horrible Bosses
Mr. Popper's Penguins

Remember to check back here every week for an update on our scores!
 

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