Movie Box Review

There's been quite a bit written in the last few years about the phenomenon of US films doing much better business overseas than domestically, sometimes more than making up for American disappointment or failure--and rightly so, as a glance at Mitch Metcalf's chart today confirms.  Indications are that the latest Harry Potter and Transformers sagas may end up doubling their US boxoffice overseas, Kung Fu Panda 2 has done even better than that, and the international results from Pirates 4 make up an incredible 76% of its worldwide total.  

Just as striking, though, are the different results once beyond the Top 10.  The "bonus" foreign grosses on the Top 10 films over their US boxoffice may ultimately exceed $2B, making foreign distribution look like hitting the lottery.  But the discrepancy is incredibly top-heavy:  after those gigantic animated and fantasy-action franchises are cleared away (7 of the Top 10 are in 3D), things are quite different.  Not one of the films ranked 11-20 on the SHOWBUZZDAILY chart has grossed more than $35M higher internationally than its total in the US.  A few of those, to be sure (Captain America is the most obvious) are still very early in their foreign runs.  But most of them, like Green Hornet, Just Go With It, Rango, and Battle:  Los Angeles are pretty much exhausted worldwide, and none did a tremendous amount more overseas than they had at home.  Even Bridesmaids and Super 8 have now played in more than half the world, with results that are currently below their respective US grosses.

All this suggests that studios hoping for international bonanzas to bail them out of soft US boxoffice are taking a big risk:  while foreign audiences respond to the "event" status of a few mega-movies--fulfilling studio dreams by seemingly having little regard for their quality--that charity doesn't extend to the lower, or even the middle, parts of the release schedule.  Most movies that look like frogs on their US release don't transform into princes just because they've been kissed overseas.

Today;  Sumner Redstone's Shop

US Release:  May 6

US Gross:  $177,988,100

Overseas Gross:  $261,700,000

Worldwide Total:  $439,688,100

US Release:  June 24

US Gross:  $157,281,396

Worldwide Total: $536,579,401

 

With over $600M in domestic boxoffice so far and over $900M overseas (and both of those numbers are with Transformers just having opened), Paramount is having a healthy summer--although due to its conservative financing strategies, perhaps not quite as lucrative as it looks.

Even with a $200M production cost plus another $150M or so for worldwide marketing, THOR should turn a comfortable profit (the sequel's opening date has already been set for July 26, 2013).  However, it was self-financed by Marvel Studios, leaving Paramount with a distribution fee that's good to have but not the same as ownership.  (And now that Disney owns Marvel, Paramount's own studio competitor will reap those benefits in the long-term.)

Similarly, KUNG FU PANDA 2 is a DreamWorks Animation production that's merely distributed by Paramount.  Even with 3D ticket premiums, the US gross won't measure up to the original Kung Fu's $215M earnings, but as with other franchises, the overseas revenues may more than make up for that.  However, Paramount again will only have a slice of those monies as distributor.

SUPER 8 was produced by Paramount, and on a budget (they claim $50M, although it'd be hard to find many non-employees who believe that).  More realistically, the combination of production and marketing costs probably comes to around $200M.  With its US theatrical release almost done, the picture will need some healthy overseas business to show much profit, and Paramount is rolling it out slowly, so we're probably weeks away from knowing whether the ultimate ink will be black.  In any case, it won't be a box-office bonanza.

Like, for example, TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON.  It's possible Transformers 3 will "only" make $350M domestically, but it has an excellent chance of overperforming internationally, and getting to at least the $835M worldwide level of Transformers 2.  It's a co-production with DreamWorks, and not only does that mean a profit split, but doubtless the studios have to give large chunks of the back-end to director Michael Bay and Executive Producer Steven Spielberg; this, however, is what's called a "good" problem.  Not only that, but the franchise is sure to continue, and it's much less tied to casting than, say, Pirates of the Caribbean (in other words, would anyone miss Shia LaBoeuf if he weren't there?).  So those robots could keep crunching each other for many installments to come.

The conservatism of Paramount's business strategy is matched by its creative vision.

Thor is a pompous superhero tale with more spectacle than is good for it, narratively speaking.  Luckily for Paramount and Marvel, it opened the same summer as Green Lantern, which has made all other superhero movies around it look better by comparison.

Kung Fu Panda 2 is a fairly high-quality sequel, and marks perhaps the first time in their shared history that DreamWorks can claim higher storytelling marks than Pixar.  But both sequels pale next to Paramount's own springtime Rango and Fox's Rio in terms of imagination and high-intensity fun.

Super 8 is an "original" story only in the most technical sense of the term, being a slavish homage to the Spielberg films of the 1970s and early 80s.  Creatively, it's entertaining but entirely second-hand.

Transformers 3 is... well, it's better than the other Transformers movies.  So there's that.

CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER - July 22:  Oddly enough, this picture may best be remembered as the longest and most expensive trailer ever, for next summer's Marvel extravaganza THE AVENGERS... which will be released by Disney.  Captain America itself, shoehorned in between Harry Potter and Cowboys and Aliens, could find itself overlooked, and the middling success of X-Men:  First Class suggests some audience resistance to the notion of period superhero movies.  After America's release, the studio sits out the month of August (probably to the great relief of its marketing department).

THE MONEY:   B-:  Paramount has avoided any financial black holes, but it has limited a generous upside by distributing rather than owning too many pictures.   

THE QUALITY:  B-:  The studio hasn't released anything terrible, nor anything that's even tried to be great.  It's a factory, and so far none of its summer products have needed to be recalled--or remembered.


Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

We'll see if SUPER 8 gets to $40M, but in any case Paramount has done the season's best job of managing expectations.  Considering that they've been throwing millions into promoting the movie since the Super Bowl, the idea that the lowest action opening of the summer is somehow good news is a beautiful piece of spin.  Remember that although Super 8 is low-budget by blockbuster standards, it still carries the typical $150M+ in worldwide marketing costs, which puts profit a distance away.--and the B+ average it got from Cinemascore is nothing to sing about, especially since the opening night audience for this should have been pure fanbase.

The X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS hold is disappointing.  This is a high-quality movie that should have benefitted from strong word of mouth, but the combination of the 1960s setting and the no-star cast seems to have turned some audiences off.  It could wind up as the lowest-grossing title in its franchise.

Similarly, Hangover, Kung Fu Panda and Pirates are all heading for the lowest grosses (domestically) of their respective series, although Kung Fu had a nice 3rd week hold--deservedly so.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS saw its per-theatre number come down to earth to around $5500 as it expanded swiftly to nearly 1000 screens--but I'm sure Woody Allen isn't complaining, since even with average holds, it should match Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point as one of his most successful films of the past 25 years.

TREE OF LIFE is expanding more slowly, up to only 47 theatres, and it's holding pretty firmly at around $17K per theatre.  Same for BEGINNERS, which inched up to 19 theatres and should do around $12K in each.  

THE HANGOVER PART II seems to be headed for the 4th highest Memorial Day opening of all time, behind only Pirates 3, Indiana Jones 4 and X-Men 3--and at less than half the budget of any of them.  Unlike all 3 of those, it should have good word of mouth, being a classic example of the difference between critics (not this particular critic in this instance, but generally) and audiences:  the critics were completely right in saying that Hangover 2 was simply a remake of Hangover 1, but audiences had no problem with getting back on the same rollercoaster they enjoyed the first time.  Also, the picture faces no comedy competition until Bad Teacher on June 24, so it has a solid month of boxoffice coming.

KUNG FU PANDA 2 is also in good shape for a long run, as there are no family movies opening until Mr. Popper's Penguins on June 17, and nothing animated until Cars 2 on June 24.  Panda is running about even with the original Madagascar, which also opened on Memorial Day weekend, but the Kung Fu number includes an extra day in the market (Madagascar opened on Friday instead of Thursday) and 3D premiums, so the number is undoubtedly a little softer than DreamWorks was hoping. 

It looks as though PIRATES 4 may struggle even to reach $250M at the domestic boxoffice, an amazing comedown from the $309M that Pirates 3 made, especially when 3D is factored in.  Although it got off to a roaring start internationally, we'll see in Mitch Metcalf's column later this week if it's running out of steam overseas as well.  With a production and marketing cost of around $450M, a global gross of $750M wouldn't be all that great for this franchise.  (An interesting sidenote:  while the earlier Pirates movies were bought for cable TV by USA Network, this one has been purchased by ABC Family, which means instead of fresh cash, it's just ABC/Disney shuffling money from one pocket to another.)

BRIDESMAIDS (and here is where this particular critic was way off) is now on track to gross as much as Superbad, which would make it the 2d biggest hit ever out of the Judd Apatow empire.

Over the past few years, DreamWorks Animation has been emerging a bit from its place as the jokey, insubstantial sidekick to Pixar's superhero studio.  How To Train Your Dragon was a thoroughly enjoyable surprise, and even though Megamind had its share of pop culture parody, it also managed a real story and heart.  The first Kung Fu Panda was less impressive, built on lovely visuals but mostly serving as a vehicle for Jack Black's pudgy cartoon charm, but the new KUNG FU PANDA 2 aims higher and succeeds, a relatively serious adventure movie with more pressing emotional stakes and some impressive action chops. 

The villain this time is a sinister peacock, and let's face it, despite his more sympathetic recent roles in the Harry Potter and Dark Knight series, nobody does sinister villains like Gary Oldman.  His Lord Shen has figured out how to turn fireworks into explosives, and has invented the first cannons, which he's now planning to use to take over all of medieval China.  More evil still, he's been told by a soothsayer (voiced by Michelle Yeoh) that he'll one day be defeated by a panda, so he's disposed of all the pandas in China--with one conspicuous exception, of course.   Naturally Po (Black) and his fellow warriors (various animals with the voices of Angelina Jolie, Seth Rogan, Jackie Chan, David Cross, and Lucy Liu), not to mention Po's master Shifu (Dustin Hoffman) are dispatched to save the day.  Lord Shen's secret weapon, though, is that he also holds the key of what happened to Po's panda parents, and how he ended up raised by a goose (James Hong), so Po will have to prove he can absorb this knowledge and still be a hero.  (A final scene setting up the next sequel lets us know there are more revelations to come.)

The script by Jonathan Aibel and Glenn Berger, who also wrote the first film, this time doesn't linger on Po's cuteness, instead giving the character some melancholy and (metaphorical) weight.  Jennifer Yuh Nelson's direction has scale and she keeps the story pushing forward at a steady pace; there are live-action directors this season who could benefit from a look at her comprehensible, fast-moving combat sequences. Even the 3D is top drawer, although inevitably you have to give up some image brightness in exchange; there are lots of swooping falls and flights, and plenty of objects reaching into the foreground of the image.  One particularly nice visual touch is that when Po has fragmentary flashbacks of his past, those sequences are rendered as hand-drawn animation, rather than computer-generated.  The vocal cast also does a fine job:  in addition to Oldman's reliable villainy, Black manages not to push too hard, as does Hoffman, and Jolie gets the most to do among the supporting cast.  

Kung Fu Panda 2 certainly isn't in a league with the truly superb animated films we've been privileged to see over the past decade like Up and Ratatouille and the Toy Story series; Pixar, at its best, makes giant hits that are also works of art.  But Panda 2 is a solid piece of entertainment that doesn't pander (sorry) to its young audience or cause pain to adults, and as the trailers for upcoming family movies make clear (The Smurfs?  Really?), that's no small accomplishment.

(KUNG FU PANDA 2 - DreamWorks Animation/Paramount - PG - 92 minutes - Director:  Jennifer Yuh Nelson - Script:  Jonathan Aibel, Glenn Berger - Cast:  Jack Black, Gary Oldman, Angelina Jolie, Dustin Hoffman, Seth Rogen, Lucy Liu, David Cross, Jackie Chan, James Hong - Wide Release)