Movie Box Review

We'll see if SUPER 8 gets to $40M, but in any case Paramount has done the season's best job of managing expectations.  Considering that they've been throwing millions into promoting the movie since the Super Bowl, the idea that the lowest action opening of the summer is somehow good news is a beautiful piece of spin.  Remember that although Super 8 is low-budget by blockbuster standards, it still carries the typical $150M+ in worldwide marketing costs, which puts profit a distance away.--and the B+ average it got from Cinemascore is nothing to sing about, especially since the opening night audience for this should have been pure fanbase.

The X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS hold is disappointing.  This is a high-quality movie that should have benefitted from strong word of mouth, but the combination of the 1960s setting and the no-star cast seems to have turned some audiences off.  It could wind up as the lowest-grossing title in its franchise.

Similarly, Hangover, Kung Fu Panda and Pirates are all heading for the lowest grosses (domestically) of their respective series, although Kung Fu had a nice 3rd week hold--deservedly so.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS saw its per-theatre number come down to earth to around $5500 as it expanded swiftly to nearly 1000 screens--but I'm sure Woody Allen isn't complaining, since even with average holds, it should match Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point as one of his most successful films of the past 25 years.

TREE OF LIFE is expanding more slowly, up to only 47 theatres, and it's holding pretty firmly at around $17K per theatre.  Same for BEGINNERS, which inched up to 19 theatres and should do around $12K in each.  

The X-Men reboot earned $10.5 million Monday-Tuesday, representing 19.1% of its opening weekend number.  Just short of the 20% gold standard, the film is well positioned for a decent hold this weekend and better-than-average playability throughout its run.  For example, we would increase its ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate upward from the initial $168 million to, say, $180 million or slightly higher.

Given its 86% positive RottenTomatoes critics score, a good proxy for positive word of mouth historically, X-Men: First Class is performing exactly as we expected despite its less than boffo opening.

On Thursday look for our Weekend Predictions.

The most substantial movie of the summer so far is, depending on how you calculate, the fifth in a comic book series, a prequel or a reboot.  X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS arrives with its own secret weapons, namely a smart script, a well-chosen cast, some genuine thematic ideas, and even historical scale.

The X-Men franchise has had a somewhat bumpy road in Hollywood, at least creatively.  Bryan Singer's initial film in 2000 was a step above most in the genre, and then his follow-up, 2003's X2:  X-Men United was even better, the rare action sequel that wasn't just bigger, but more thoughtful.  Singer left the series in 2006 for his misbegotten Superman Returns, and his place was taken by the terminally unremarkable Brett Ratner on X-Men:  The Last Stand, which was far less interesting (although the most successful at the box-office, with $460M worldwide).  This was followed by Gavin Hood's prequel X-Men Origins:  Wolverine in 2009, a bland star vehicle for Hugh Jackman.  That spinoff series may yet continue (Darren Aronofsky was supposed to direct its sequel but backed out after Black Swan hit); meanwhile Fox and Marvel launched this origin story, which overhauls the entire cast and moves the story back to 1962.

This move emphasizes the unusual moral ambiguity that made the Singer X-Men films so interesting.  (Singer has returned to the series to the extent of sharing a story credit with Sheldon Turner; the script is credited to the team of Ashley Edward Miller and Zack Stentz and director Matthew Vaughn and his writing partner Jane Goldman.)  Singer's films embraced the freakishness of mutant powers as metaphor--most obviously for homosexuality (in one of the movies a teen mutant had to come out to his parents), but more generally for any way in which people were victimized because of their differences from the norm.  (Magneto isn't just Jewish, he's a concentration camp survivor.)  The films also had an explicitly political dimension, as senators and other politicians campaigned for measures oppressing the mutants. 

In First Class, the politics affecting mutants are still in the process of forming.  The story covers the period when the leader of the "hero" mutants, Charles Xavier (James McAvoy), is a friend and ally of Erik Lehnsherr (Michael Fassbender), who will become the villainous Magneto, and the First Class itself, the initial group of young mutants who are tutored by Charles and Erik (they include Jennifer Lawrence, Nicholas Hoult, Caleb Landry Jones, Zoe Kravitz, Alex Gonzalez and Edi Gathegi), are torn between the views of the two men:  some wanting to be assimilated into "normal" society, others seeking revenge for their victimization.  The decision whether to join one or the other is less morally clear-cut than it was in the contemporary stories, because Erik hasn't become a bad guy yet.  This is pretty heady stuff for a genre movie, and it's made even more so by placing the story within the real-life intrigue of the Cuban Missile Crisis. 

Vaughn previously directed the semi-satiric Kick-Ass, but while that picture was done on a limited indie budget, here he's got the resources of a profitable franchise behind him.  First Class looks terrific (the handsome photography is by John Mathieson, and the lush production design by Chris Seagers) and it has the kind of epic globe-trotting sweep we associate with James Bond adventures.  But Vaughn keeps the focus on the characters, and the extremely strong cast (which also includes Rose Byrne and Oliver Platt in smaller roles) delivers.  McAvoy and Lawrence are particularly good, but it's Michael Fassbender who steals the show, absolutely--sorry--magnetic as the movie's antihero center.  

For all this genuine quality, the movie does have one weakness:  the villains.  With Erik one of the good guys in this story, there had to be an adversary, and he's a fairly colorless super-rich world-conquering type named Sebastian Shaw (Kevin Bacon).  Bacon gets off to a solid, disturbing start in the opening sequences, where he makes Erik's acquaintance at the concentration camp, but once he's in the 1960s, his character and even his mutant powers turn generic and only barely worthy of Fassbender's level of hate.  Shaw's henchpeople are Emma Frost (January Jones, looking great in limited clothing and sounding remarkably like Betty Draper), and Azazel (Jason Flemyng), who has some cool-looking CG powers but is the most "comic book" of all the characters, parading around like a cartoon devil, complete with tail.  Bacon and his team feel like a thin pretext for the action, simplistic compared to everyone else.

X-Men:  First Class is so generally strong, though, that even its ordinary villain can't seriously damage it.  At 132 minutes, it zings along with action sequences that don't overwhelm the story and characters that have some meat to them.  Since it ends (spoiler alert, I guess) with Charles and Erik assuming their adult roles of Professor X and Magneto, it's not clear that future entries in the series will be as complex and provocative as this one--but never underestimate a studio motivated to find new facets to a franchise.

(X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS - 20th Century Fox - PG 13 - 132 minutes - Director:  Matthew Vaughn - Script:  Vaughn, Jane Goldman, Ashley Edward Miller, Zack Stentz - Cast:  James McEvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Rose Byrne, Kevin Bacon, January Jones - Wide Release)

Here at ShowbuzzDaily, we like to think that we're smarter than anyone else.  But more importantly, we like to think we're smarter than each other.  So the two of us here (Mitch Metcalf and your humble narrator Mitch Salem) decided to pick our own slates of summer movies to compete against each other, each of us stubborn in the belief that our list of films will, by Labor Day, outgross the total US boxoffice of the other's. 

We followed the general draft rules used by pro sports leagues (when they're not mid-strike or -lockout):  Mitch M graciously gave me the first pick, and then we alternated through 2 dozen movies that will be opening between May 6 and August 12.  At the traditional end of the summer season on Labor Day, one of us will have bragging rights and the other will have to call the winner "Mr. Mitch"--at least until it's time for the Holiday Blockbuster Draft in November.

Here's a transcript of our choices, cleansed of four-letter words and threats of violence.  Remember to check back here every week for an update on who's ahead and who's Mitch Metcalf.  (I kid, I kid.)

MS:  I'll start with the obvious.  HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (July 15), aka Harry Potter 8.  It's a rock-solid franchise, and this is the final chapter in a story that's been followed for more than a decade by millions of fans--plus it's in 3D.  Go Gryffindor!

MM:  TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON (July 1).  Summer is all about heat and blowing stuff up.  Plus there's always room for the art of Michael Bay!

MS:  PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES (May 20).  Audiences love them some Johnny Depp on a pirate ship, and even though the last installment was awful, this time there's Penelope Cruz and those tasty 3D ticket premiums.

MM:  KUNG FU PANDA 2 (May 26).  The theme of franchises continues.  Since I just missed Jack Sparrow (aaarrghh! or however one spells that pirate utterance), I'll go with the lovable Jack Black.  Besides, the ads promise it's "Kung Fu-ier"!

MS:  I guess this is why Hollywood worships franchises.  At least THE HANGOVER PART 2 (May 26) isn't a superhero or a cartoon.  The R rating makes a rare appearance in the list of top grossers (heavy on the "gross").

MM:  CARS 2 (June 24).  OK, now I'm pissed.  Hangover 2 was my next pick because it has explosive potential if it's half as good as the original (I hear it's actually going to deliver).  Oh well, I also have confidence in Pixar.  It's just not as cool...

MS:  I'm proud to announce the first non-sequel pick of this draft:  JJ Abrams' (not to mention Steven Spielberg's) SUPER 8 (June 10).  It already has the best trailer of the summer.

MM:  COWBOYS & ALIENS (July 29).  OK, Salem, this is really getting annoying.  Conventional wisdom has other sequels ahead of Super 8, but it will probably be the one that surprises the most and could seal my draft fate.  Well played.  In the vein of explosions and with a "your peanut butter's in my chocolate" combination of genres, I am betting this one delivers popcorn fun. 

MS:  Cowboys & Aliens probably has the most intriguing premise of the summer blockbusters, so it could get that late summer Inception audience... if it works.  Now that we're past the sure things, I'm taking X MEN:  FIRST CLASS (June 3), a reboot that doesn't include any of the original cast, but has a group of really strong actors (James McAvoy!  Michael Fassbender!  Jennifer Lawrence!  January Jones!  Rose Byrne!) plus Matthew Vaughn, the director of Kick-Ass.

MM:  CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Now it does get interesting.  Despite some disappointing TV commercials (that need to be improved), I'm going with the jingoistic ring of the title.  As oppposed to Green Lantern, which many will think was already released this winter with Seth Rogen in the lead.

MS:  I agree, Captain America looks better than Green Lantern--I'm just not sure that's saying much.  I'm going back to the future with RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (August 5).  It's a risk, because the last one wasn't that long ago (and wasn't that good), and it stars James Franco, who suddenly doesn't look like the next big thing... but early glimpses of the CG apes are awfully impressive.

MM:  THOR (May 6).  Now is the time we'd like to be flies on the wall in studio screening rooms.  Not even to see the films themselves, just the expressions on the executive's faces.  I'm betting Thor's well-reviewed story will push it over the top.  Or it just might be, well, over the top.  Looking forward to your take in Friday's review.

MS:  I'm a few hours away from seeing Thor--and suddenly not rooting for it so hard.  I'm going to radically switch genres and hope the Hangover audience still has an appetite for some summer raunch:  BAD TEACHER (June 24), with Cameron Diaz as the titular civil servant.

MM:  That would put her back on the map.  My next pick is ZOOKEEPER (July 8).  It's got animals galore and Kevin James, who has delivered before (Paul Blart).

MS:  Damn, that was going to be my next one--I agree, Zookeeper's in a great position to hit the sweet spot with its target audience.  Ah well... I think we're both united in not thinking much of GREEN LANTERN's (June 17) prospects as superhero movies go, but still it's a big-time 3D spectacle, so it's going to make some dough.  I'm just glad it's Warners and not us who'll be worrying about matching the green lantern with the red ink.

MM:  I'm going to dip my toe into the romantic comedy waters with LARRY CROWNE (July 1).  Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, with Hanks also co-writing and directing.  What could possibly go wrong?  I know, I know--everything.  But we shall see.

MS:  Leading my personal list of "Do I really have to see this?" summer movies, but still likely to draw in some kids (and stoners):  THE SMURFS (July 29).

MM:   I'm going with BRIDESMAIDS (May 13), hoping it's the female Hangover. I know it won't be, but I'm still bitter about losing the real sequel and am not thinking clearly.

MS:  In the same genre, I'm taking FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (July 22), the red-band version of No Strings Attached.  It's directed by Will Gluck, who made the sleeper hit Easy A last fall, and maybe lightning will strike twice.

MM:  Which Steve Carell will show up in CRAZY STUPID LOVE (July 29)?  In the right vehicle he's incredibly appealing.  Otherwise he's dead weight in clunkers.  I'm voting for the former (admittedly knowing very little about the film).

MS:  August is a strange month to launch a weighty historical movie that might want to be remembered at awards time.  But I'm going to take a shot that the fans who kept THE HELP (August 12) on bestseller lists for 2 years will come out to support it as a film.

MM:  I'm going to go with a subject we all know something about:  HORRIBLE BOSSES (July 8).  Enough said.

MS: True enough.  With my last pick, I'm taking Jesse Eisenberg, Danny McBride and Aziz Ansari in 30 MINUTES OR LESS (August 12) and hoping for the best.  Which I believe leaves you with...

MM:  MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS (June 17)!  Oh hooray.  The lamest title on the slate, and it's all mine.  Really feels like a Jim Carrey stinker.  Well, this has actually been fun.  On to the summer!

To summarize, here are our summer slates:

Remember to check back here every week for an update on our scores!