Movie Box Review

Box Office Mojo reports that with Monday's receipts counted, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) has moved ahead of TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON, $344.9M to $344.7M, to become the top-grossing film in the US for 2011.  (Since Harry is earlier in its run and will be losing theatres more slowly, it should continue to gain ground.)

There's been quite a bit written in the last few years about the phenomenon of US films doing much better business overseas than domestically, sometimes more than making up for American disappointment or failure--and rightly so, as a glance at Mitch Metcalf's chart today confirms.  Indications are that the latest Harry Potter and Transformers sagas may end up doubling their US boxoffice overseas, Kung Fu Panda 2 has done even better than that, and the international results from Pirates 4 make up an incredible 76% of its worldwide total.  

Just as striking, though, are the different results once beyond the Top 10.  The "bonus" foreign grosses on the Top 10 films over their US boxoffice may ultimately exceed $2B, making foreign distribution look like hitting the lottery.  But the discrepancy is incredibly top-heavy:  after those gigantic animated and fantasy-action franchises are cleared away (7 of the Top 10 are in 3D), things are quite different.  Not one of the films ranked 11-20 on the SHOWBUZZDAILY chart has grossed more than $35M higher internationally than its total in the US.  A few of those, to be sure (Captain America is the most obvious) are still very early in their foreign runs.  But most of them, like Green Hornet, Just Go With It, Rango, and Battle:  Los Angeles are pretty much exhausted worldwide, and none did a tremendous amount more overseas than they had at home.  Even Bridesmaids and Super 8 have now played in more than half the world, with results that are currently below their respective US grosses.

All this suggests that studios hoping for international bonanzas to bail them out of soft US boxoffice are taking a big risk:  while foreign audiences respond to the "event" status of a few mega-movies--fulfilling studio dreams by seemingly having little regard for their quality--that charity doesn't extend to the lower, or even the middle, parts of the release schedule.  Most movies that look like frogs on their US release don't transform into princes just because they've been kissed overseas.

We'll see if SUPER 8 gets to $40M, but in any case Paramount has done the season's best job of managing expectations.  Considering that they've been throwing millions into promoting the movie since the Super Bowl, the idea that the lowest action opening of the summer is somehow good news is a beautiful piece of spin.  Remember that although Super 8 is low-budget by blockbuster standards, it still carries the typical $150M+ in worldwide marketing costs, which puts profit a distance away.--and the B+ average it got from Cinemascore is nothing to sing about, especially since the opening night audience for this should have been pure fanbase.

The X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS hold is disappointing.  This is a high-quality movie that should have benefitted from strong word of mouth, but the combination of the 1960s setting and the no-star cast seems to have turned some audiences off.  It could wind up as the lowest-grossing title in its franchise.

Similarly, Hangover, Kung Fu Panda and Pirates are all heading for the lowest grosses (domestically) of their respective series, although Kung Fu had a nice 3rd week hold--deservedly so.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS saw its per-theatre number come down to earth to around $5500 as it expanded swiftly to nearly 1000 screens--but I'm sure Woody Allen isn't complaining, since even with average holds, it should match Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point as one of his most successful films of the past 25 years.

TREE OF LIFE is expanding more slowly, up to only 47 theatres, and it's holding pretty firmly at around $17K per theatre.  Same for BEGINNERS, which inched up to 19 theatres and should do around $12K in each.  

THE HANGOVER PART II seems to be headed for the 4th highest Memorial Day opening of all time, behind only Pirates 3, Indiana Jones 4 and X-Men 3--and at less than half the budget of any of them.  Unlike all 3 of those, it should have good word of mouth, being a classic example of the difference between critics (not this particular critic in this instance, but generally) and audiences:  the critics were completely right in saying that Hangover 2 was simply a remake of Hangover 1, but audiences had no problem with getting back on the same rollercoaster they enjoyed the first time.  Also, the picture faces no comedy competition until Bad Teacher on June 24, so it has a solid month of boxoffice coming.

KUNG FU PANDA 2 is also in good shape for a long run, as there are no family movies opening until Mr. Popper's Penguins on June 17, and nothing animated until Cars 2 on June 24.  Panda is running about even with the original Madagascar, which also opened on Memorial Day weekend, but the Kung Fu number includes an extra day in the market (Madagascar opened on Friday instead of Thursday) and 3D premiums, so the number is undoubtedly a little softer than DreamWorks was hoping. 

It looks as though PIRATES 4 may struggle even to reach $250M at the domestic boxoffice, an amazing comedown from the $309M that Pirates 3 made, especially when 3D is factored in.  Although it got off to a roaring start internationally, we'll see in Mitch Metcalf's column later this week if it's running out of steam overseas as well.  With a production and marketing cost of around $450M, a global gross of $750M wouldn't be all that great for this franchise.  (An interesting sidenote:  while the earlier Pirates movies were bought for cable TV by USA Network, this one has been purchased by ABC Family, which means instead of fresh cash, it's just ABC/Disney shuffling money from one pocket to another.)

BRIDESMAIDS (and here is where this particular critic was way off) is now on track to gross as much as Superbad, which would make it the 2d biggest hit ever out of the Judd Apatow empire.

In the 137 minutes of Pirates of the Caribbean:  On Stranger Tides, the 4th installment in Disney's hugely successful franchise (and yes, you have to sit through all 10 minutes of end credits for a not-crucial coda scene), there is exactly one inspired idea.  About halfway through, we're introduced to the movie's version of mermaids, which are more like mer-pires, who drag men underwater, sprout fangs and devour them.  For a few minutes, it's almost like we're watching a real adventure story.  But after one action scene, the only mermaid we're left with is Serena (Astrid Berges-Frisbey), a depressed creature who pines for love of a dull clergyman (Sam Claflin)--and we remember that actually, this is just a deeply uninteresting corporate product.

The last Pirates entry, 2007's At World's End, was an overlong mess, impenetrably plotted and mistaking spectacle for story, but it nevertheless made almost $1 billion worldwide--and that was without 3D ticket premiums.  So it stood to reason that Johnny Depp would reluctantly accept his $35 million paycheck and don his Jack Sparrow garb once again.  This time the Disney/Jerry Bruckheimer team have moved on from director Gore Verbinski (who directed the terrific Rango instead), and replaced him with Rob Marshall.  The result isn't particularly successful:  Verbinski may have lost control of the last picture, but he brought a buoyantly crazy, almost surreal visual touch to the movies that set them apart from most blockbusters, while Marshall, known previously for musicals like Chicago and Nine, is out of his element and brings no personality at all to the proceedings.  (His action sequences are edited like the musical numbers in Nine, and that's not a compliment.)

On Stranger Tides also dumps much of the supporting cast from the first trilogy, notably Keira Knightley and Orlando Bloom, as well as comic relief Mackenzie Crook and Lee Arenberg.  While this makes sense in a way--the Knightley/Bloom storyline was pretty much exhausted--writers Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio (who've been on the series since the beginning) haven't replaced them with any worthy substitutes.  Although the Knightley/Bloom characters were criticized, especially when compared to the outrageous fun of Depp, as being the conventional parts of the movies, they provided the tales with their narrative spine and something like a heart.  Turning On Stranger Tides into The Johnny Depp Show, for all Depp's skill, makes Jack Sparrow's comic scheming and sneaky heroism feel mechanical. 

The story is more straightforward this time than in the previous couple of movies (although it still could have lost a couple of complications and 20 minutes of screen time).  Everyone is searching for the Fountain of Youth, meaning Jack, his old adversary Barbossa (Geoffrey Rush), the British and Spanish fleets, the villainous Blackbeard (Ian McShane), and Angelica (Penelope Cruz), an old love of Jack's who also happens to be Blackbeard's daughter.  Naturally use of the Fountain requires not only finding it, but also assembling some mystical elements that include chalices located on Ponce de Leon's ship and a teardrop of the aforementioned mermaid, which means everyone has to go chasing around the Caribbean one step behind each other.  Cruz brings spirit to her part, and she's good in her sniping scenes with Depp (the two of them co-starred in Blow 10 years ago), but there's not much to her character beyond being fiery--Depp had more subversive chemistry with Knightley--while McShane plays yet another bad guy who's a pale shadow of his classic Al Swearingen in Deadwood.   

On Stranger Tides is less painful to sit through than vaguely dull.  The Disney/Bruckheimer brain trust has toned down the scale of the movie--no giant sea monsters this time, no huge ship battles.  We just get a lot of enormous studio soundstage sets that as filmed by Marshall and cinematographer Dariusz Wolski (who's shot all the other Pirates movies as well as several Tim Burton films) never fully mask their origin.  The transferred 3D provides little more than a few outstretched swords pointing at the audience.  (A 3D note:  if the trailer is to be trusted, Michael Bay, for whatever else one can say about him, may have some much more impressive 3D visuals on hand in the next Transformers.)  Hans Zimmer contributes the bombastic score he gives to action movies when he doesn't have a director like Christopher Nolan to challenge him, and the music and editing try to convince us we're watching something much more exciting than we really are.

Even if On Stranger Tides is "disappointing" at the box-office (and Mitch Metcalf's prediction has its opening weekend running 20% behind At World's End), it'll still make hundreds of millions around the world, so as long as Depp wants to keep cashing those paychecks, the franchise will no doubt continue.  Sadly, we in the audience can mark its progress from entertaining surprise to predictable exercise.  

(PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES - Disney - PG 13 - 137 minutes - Director:  Rob Marshall - Script:  Ted Elliott, Terry Rossio - Cast:  Johnny Depp, Penelope Cruz, Geoffrey Rush, Ian McShane, Sam Claflin, Kevin McNally, Astrid Berges-Frisbey - Wide Release)

Here at ShowbuzzDaily, we like to think that we're smarter than anyone else.  But more importantly, we like to think we're smarter than each other.  So the two of us here (Mitch Metcalf and your humble narrator Mitch Salem) decided to pick our own slates of summer movies to compete against each other, each of us stubborn in the belief that our list of films will, by Labor Day, outgross the total US boxoffice of the other's. 

We followed the general draft rules used by pro sports leagues (when they're not mid-strike or -lockout):  Mitch M graciously gave me the first pick, and then we alternated through 2 dozen movies that will be opening between May 6 and August 12.  At the traditional end of the summer season on Labor Day, one of us will have bragging rights and the other will have to call the winner "Mr. Mitch"--at least until it's time for the Holiday Blockbuster Draft in November.

Here's a transcript of our choices, cleansed of four-letter words and threats of violence.  Remember to check back here every week for an update on who's ahead and who's Mitch Metcalf.  (I kid, I kid.)

MS:  I'll start with the obvious.  HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (July 15), aka Harry Potter 8.  It's a rock-solid franchise, and this is the final chapter in a story that's been followed for more than a decade by millions of fans--plus it's in 3D.  Go Gryffindor!

MM:  TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON (July 1).  Summer is all about heat and blowing stuff up.  Plus there's always room for the art of Michael Bay!

MS:  PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES (May 20).  Audiences love them some Johnny Depp on a pirate ship, and even though the last installment was awful, this time there's Penelope Cruz and those tasty 3D ticket premiums.

MM:  KUNG FU PANDA 2 (May 26).  The theme of franchises continues.  Since I just missed Jack Sparrow (aaarrghh! or however one spells that pirate utterance), I'll go with the lovable Jack Black.  Besides, the ads promise it's "Kung Fu-ier"!

MS:  I guess this is why Hollywood worships franchises.  At least THE HANGOVER PART 2 (May 26) isn't a superhero or a cartoon.  The R rating makes a rare appearance in the list of top grossers (heavy on the "gross").

MM:  CARS 2 (June 24).  OK, now I'm pissed.  Hangover 2 was my next pick because it has explosive potential if it's half as good as the original (I hear it's actually going to deliver).  Oh well, I also have confidence in Pixar.  It's just not as cool...

MS:  I'm proud to announce the first non-sequel pick of this draft:  JJ Abrams' (not to mention Steven Spielberg's) SUPER 8 (June 10).  It already has the best trailer of the summer.

MM:  COWBOYS & ALIENS (July 29).  OK, Salem, this is really getting annoying.  Conventional wisdom has other sequels ahead of Super 8, but it will probably be the one that surprises the most and could seal my draft fate.  Well played.  In the vein of explosions and with a "your peanut butter's in my chocolate" combination of genres, I am betting this one delivers popcorn fun. 

MS:  Cowboys & Aliens probably has the most intriguing premise of the summer blockbusters, so it could get that late summer Inception audience... if it works.  Now that we're past the sure things, I'm taking X MEN:  FIRST CLASS (June 3), a reboot that doesn't include any of the original cast, but has a group of really strong actors (James McAvoy!  Michael Fassbender!  Jennifer Lawrence!  January Jones!  Rose Byrne!) plus Matthew Vaughn, the director of Kick-Ass.

MM:  CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Now it does get interesting.  Despite some disappointing TV commercials (that need to be improved), I'm going with the jingoistic ring of the title.  As oppposed to Green Lantern, which many will think was already released this winter with Seth Rogen in the lead.

MS:  I agree, Captain America looks better than Green Lantern--I'm just not sure that's saying much.  I'm going back to the future with RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (August 5).  It's a risk, because the last one wasn't that long ago (and wasn't that good), and it stars James Franco, who suddenly doesn't look like the next big thing... but early glimpses of the CG apes are awfully impressive.

MM:  THOR (May 6).  Now is the time we'd like to be flies on the wall in studio screening rooms.  Not even to see the films themselves, just the expressions on the executive's faces.  I'm betting Thor's well-reviewed story will push it over the top.  Or it just might be, well, over the top.  Looking forward to your take in Friday's review.

MS:  I'm a few hours away from seeing Thor--and suddenly not rooting for it so hard.  I'm going to radically switch genres and hope the Hangover audience still has an appetite for some summer raunch:  BAD TEACHER (June 24), with Cameron Diaz as the titular civil servant.

MM:  That would put her back on the map.  My next pick is ZOOKEEPER (July 8).  It's got animals galore and Kevin James, who has delivered before (Paul Blart).

MS:  Damn, that was going to be my next one--I agree, Zookeeper's in a great position to hit the sweet spot with its target audience.  Ah well... I think we're both united in not thinking much of GREEN LANTERN's (June 17) prospects as superhero movies go, but still it's a big-time 3D spectacle, so it's going to make some dough.  I'm just glad it's Warners and not us who'll be worrying about matching the green lantern with the red ink.

MM:  I'm going to dip my toe into the romantic comedy waters with LARRY CROWNE (July 1).  Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, with Hanks also co-writing and directing.  What could possibly go wrong?  I know, I know--everything.  But we shall see.

MS:  Leading my personal list of "Do I really have to see this?" summer movies, but still likely to draw in some kids (and stoners):  THE SMURFS (July 29).

MM:   I'm going with BRIDESMAIDS (May 13), hoping it's the female Hangover. I know it won't be, but I'm still bitter about losing the real sequel and am not thinking clearly.

MS:  In the same genre, I'm taking FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (July 22), the red-band version of No Strings Attached.  It's directed by Will Gluck, who made the sleeper hit Easy A last fall, and maybe lightning will strike twice.

MM:  Which Steve Carell will show up in CRAZY STUPID LOVE (July 29)?  In the right vehicle he's incredibly appealing.  Otherwise he's dead weight in clunkers.  I'm voting for the former (admittedly knowing very little about the film).

MS:  August is a strange month to launch a weighty historical movie that might want to be remembered at awards time.  But I'm going to take a shot that the fans who kept THE HELP (August 12) on bestseller lists for 2 years will come out to support it as a film.

MM:  I'm going to go with a subject we all know something about:  HORRIBLE BOSSES (July 8).  Enough said.

MS: True enough.  With my last pick, I'm taking Jesse Eisenberg, Danny McBride and Aziz Ansari in 30 MINUTES OR LESS (August 12) and hoping for the best.  Which I believe leaves you with...

MM:  MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS (June 17)!  Oh hooray.  The lamest title on the slate, and it's all mine.  Really feels like a Jim Carrey stinker.  Well, this has actually been fun.  On to the summer!

To summarize, here are our summer slates:

Remember to check back here every week for an update on our scores!