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Showing posts with label glee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label glee. Show all posts

THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

11:23 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,





GLEE looks at a shark and considers taking a jump.

FOX:  Despite perhaps the most melodramatic midseason finale of any "comedy' in TV history (a suicide attempt, an as-yet unexplained pregnancy, and a dead-or-not-dead? cliffhanger), GLEE was up only 0.1 from last week's season low.  The show won't air again until mid-April.  NEW GIRL was down to a new series low, and RAISING HOPE, while marginally up, was only 0.2 above its own season low.  After next week's 2-hour special Tuesday Idol, both sitcoms will be part of FOX's 4-sitcom Tuesday through March, with Hope moving to earlier in the evening.


NBC:  What's the deal with NBC's Promo department spoiling every upcoming plot point on PARENTHOOD in its "Next Week On..." spots?  Both of last night's major developments been disclosed a week ago, and the promo for next week's season finale wasn't much better.  A sign of desperation (last night continued a month of the show hovering at or just above its series low), or that the network just doesn't care?  Meanwhile, THE BIGGEST LOSER continued its steady if unspectacular pace, with all ratings in the past 6 weeks within a narrow 0.2 range.

ABC:  The good news for COUGAR TOWN was that it was down only 0.1 from last week's hyped premiere, but a 1.7 leaves little else to celebrate.  1.7 was also the steady number for THE RIVER, making no headway from 4th place at 9PM.  BODY OF PROOF was up 0.2 from last week's series low, still bring up the rear in its hour.

CBS:  The network edged out a 0.1 win for the night, but all its shows were down, with NCIS LA and UNFORGETTABLE hitting season lows.

CW:  Here's an oddity:  last night's repeat of HART OF DIXIE was only 0.2 below Monday's new episode (and just 0.1 below Monday's new GOSSIP GIRL).  That surprisingly decent lead-in helped RINGER to a still-mediocre 0.5.

Everything is new tonight, including a 2-hour Idol on FOX.  The only special event is a 20/20 standing in for Revenge on ABC, centering on this year's Oscar nominees back before they were famous.  (Jean DuJardin and Berenice Bejo, before they were household names?  How exciting!)



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The Sked: TUESDAY RATINGS February 21

9:03 AM | Labels: , , , , ,

FOX, NBC and ABC each edged up one tenth of a rating point from last week's soft Valentine's Day levels, but CBS was down another two tenths from last week.  Emblematic of the weak network numbers across the week, two networks were well above a 3.0 rating on this night last year, while none could break a 3.0 last night. 


             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Tuesday      CBS    FOX    NBC    ABC
02.21.2012   2.9    2.8    2.0    1.7     THIS WEEK
02.14.2012   3.1    2.7    1.9    1.6     LAST WEEK
02.22.2011   3.4    3.2    2.5    1.5     LAST YEAR


CBS was down two tenths from last Tuesday but hung on to first place with a 2.9, one tenth ahead of FOX.  NCIS did a ho-hum (for it) 3.8 rating, down a tick from last week.  NCIS: Los Angeles wilted three tenths of a rating point to a 2.9, a new season low.  Unforgettable continues to sag, down four tenths from last week to a 1.9.  Sadly, it remains the highest rated network program Tuesday at 10 pm.  Last year CBS averaged a 3.4 on the comparable night:  NCIS (4.4), NCIS Los Angeles (3.9) and Good Wife (2.0).


CBS Tues     High Low  1.17 1.24 1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21
NCIS         4.3  3.5  2.2R 2.1  2.0R 4.2  3.9  3.8*
NCIS: LA     3.7  3.0  1.7R --   1.8R 3.1  3.2  2.9*
Unforgettble 2.9  2.1  1.5R --   1.4R 2.2  2.3  1.9*

FOX's Glee ticked up one tenth from last week's season low but remains under a 3.0.  New Girl built one tenth of a rating point from Glee to a 3.0 but that's down from last week and establishes a new season low (pending any adjustments in the official national ratings).  Last year on this night, FOX aired Glee (4.4) followed by Raising Hope (2.4) and Traffic Light (1.6). 


FOX Tues     High Low  1.17 1.24 1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21
Glee         4.0  2.8  3.1  --   3.7  3.3  2.8  2.9*
New Girl     4.8  3.1  3.4  --   3.5  3.5  3.1  3.0*
Raising Hope 3.1  2.0  2.3  --   2.0  2.1  2.1  2.2*

ABC Tuesday featured flat week to week performances from Last Man Standing and The River at low levels, while the second week of Cougar Town edged down a tenth from a very weak premiere.  At 10 pm, Body of Proof was actually up two tenths from last week's season low (but only to a 1.4).  The 10 pm uptick enabled ABC's 8-11 pm average to rise one tenth over last week, but the network is still mired in fourth place on the night.  Last year on this night ABC was doing even worse: No Ordinary Family (1.4), V (1.9) and Primetime Special (1.4).
 
ABC Tues           High Low  1.17 1.24 1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21
Last Man Standing  3.6  2.1  2.6  1.5R 1.5R 2.3  2.2  2.2*
Cougar Town        1.8  1.8                      1.8  1.7*
Man Up!            2.4  1.6 
Work It            2.0  1.5  --
Dancing Res        4.1  2.6   

Celeb Wife Swap    2.1  1.9  2.1  --   1.9 
The River          2.4  1.7                 2.4  1.7  1.7*
Body of Proof      2.2  1.2  1.6  --   1.0R --   1.2  1.4*


Biggest Loser rebounded to a 2.2 (up one tenth from last week) and could very likely rise to a 2.3 in the official nationals.  Parenthood also ticked up one tenth at 10 pm from last week but remains well below last year's pace.  Last year on this night: Biggest Loser (2.7) from 8-10 pm and a Parenthood original (2.1).      


NBC Tues     High Low  1.17 1.24 1.31 2.07 2.14 2.21
Biggest Loser2.7  1.9  2.3  2.1  2.1  2.3  2.1  2.2*
Parenthood   2.2  1.6  1.7  --   0.7R 1.6  1.6  1.7*





###

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The Sked: Upscale Ratings -- FOX Profile

10:28 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Previously in this series on upscale TV ratings, we have examined ABC (many upscale shows but too many series stuck with mid-level or low audience sizes) and CBS (sizable audiences but many downscale or at best middling income skews).  Today, we look at FOX, which averages a 2.9 rating with Adults 18-49 this season to date with its regular schedule (equal to the CBS rating and well ahead of ABC's 2.4).  With Adults 18-49 in $100K+ income homes, FOX averages a 2.8 rating (slightly ahead of ABC's 2.7 and above CBS's 2.6).  FOX's upscale index of 96 is better than CBS's 91 but far below ABC's 113.

High Rated Shows.  Among FOX's many high-rated shows, the network has a pretty good distribution of upscale to mid-range to downscale properties.  Two shows, Glee (139) and New Girl (130), grace the upper right section of our chart, boasting both high ratings and solid upper-income audience skews.  Next, the FOX schedule is anchored by American Idol (105) with great (though declining ratings) and middle-range income skew, indicating its appeal to all people.  The other FOX strengths, X Factor and the animation domination anchors, start to tilt downscale: from the Wednesday X Factor (94) to Thursday's edition (88), down to The Simpsons (84) and Family Guy (71).  Not every show can be an upscale hit, but if the rest of the FOX schedule had such a balanced distribution, the network would be in pretty decent shape in terms of income skew.

Middle Rated Shows.  However, among the sizable number of middle-rated shows on FOX, there is a decided downscale skew.  There are no mid-rated FOX shows with a high upscale index and only three around 100: Monday's House (106) and Alcatraz (105) along with Raising Hope (104).  The rest of Sunday's animation block really falls off an income cliff: Cleveland Show (65) and American Dad (56), joined by freshman series Napoleon Dynamite (68) and Allen Gregory (69).  Other struggling shows from a variety of program genres find themselves with undistinguished index values in the 80s.

Low Rated Shows.  The good news for FOX is a dearth of genuinely low-rated programs, but the bad news is that Saturday's installments of Cops have the lowest income index numbers of any network program (all the way down to the 50s) and Friday's Kitchen Nightmares (66) is also very low.  Friday and Saturday are tough nights for the sales department (advertisers want to be on before the weekend starts when buying decisions are forming), and a downscale skew just makes the tough sales proposition almost impossible.

In the final post in this series, we will look at NBC, home of some of the most upscale -- and simultaneously lowest-rated -- programs on network TV.  



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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

10:27 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Not all shows premiere like Smash.

ABC:  In recent years, viewers have flocked to horror series from True Blood to The Walking Dead to The Vampire Diaries, and at the multiplex, "found footage" thrillers like Paranormal Activity, The Devil Inside and Chronicle sell tickets like crazy, so... So this is why the entertainment business drives businesspeople crazy, because comparatively speaking, no one showed up for THE RIVER, ABC's stab at the genre, which had a blah 2.4 opening, with a steadily decreasing track that bodes very badly for next week.  It's a short-term problem for the network, since only 7 episodes were ordered, but it's not going to make Tuesdays in the rest of February and March pleasant for ABC.  The 8PM LAST MAN STANDING was just 0.2 above its season low, and a special 8:30PM episode didn't do much better.


NBC:  Any hope for a halo effect after the best 2 days of the network's season went out the window, as THE BIGGEST LOSER was up only 0.1 from recent weeks, and then PARENTHOOD, facing a stronger competitor on ABC than the usual Body of Proof, slumped to a season low 1.6.  Parenthood's ratings in 2012 have been terrible, and with only a few more episodes left in its season order, its producers have to be glad they're on the one network where those numbers aren't necessarily a death sentence.

CBS:  The 200th episode of NCIS easily won its hour, but with The River perhaps siphoning off some male viewers, NCIS LA and UNFORGETTABLE were both only 0.1 above their season lows.

FOX:  GLEE was way down from last week's Michael Jackson episode (apparently Ricky Martin doesn't have quite the same name value).  NEW GIRL won its timeslot, but shows no signs of recapturing the highs of its fall ratings, and both it and RAISING HOPE were 0.2 above their season lows.

CW:  90210 held its own with a 0.7, but RINGER's 0.5 was down 0.1 from last week's midseason premiere.

Tonight the only news is on the news side:  CBS fills in at 8PM (pending the return of Survivor) with a special PERSON TO PERSON interview show hosted by Charlie Rose and Lara Logan (the title is from an Edward R. Murrow series that ran 1953-1961, a reference that should certainly pull in the young crowd).  At 9PM, ROCK CENTER moves to its new timeslot, where it can look forward to being decimated by a new MODERN FAMILY on ABC.  At 10PM, CSI will probably be down from Marg Helgenberger's exit episode, while REVENGE moves toward the endgame of the first arc of its season's storyline.



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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

11:09 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



Some things are eternal, and Michael Jackson appears to be one of them.

FOX:  GLEE's Michael Jackson episode propelled the show to a 3.6, its best rating in months.  The strong lead-in didn't help the network's sit-coms much, though:  NEW GIRL was only up 0.1 for the night, and RAISING HOPE fell to match its season low.


CW:  RINGER, returning from a hiatus that seemed almost as long as Mad Men's, didn't find absence making audience hearts grow much fonder, with the same 0.6 it had on November 29, which was down slightly from its 90210 lead-in.

NBC:  BIGGEST LOSER was even with last week, but that wasn't good news, as it was close to a season low.  Repeats of the serialized PARENTHOOD are always ugly, and last night's 0.7 was no exception.

ABC:  LAST MAN STANDING and BODY OF PROOF were at their usual unimpressive repeat levels, and the season finale of CELEBRITY WIFE SWAP couldn't leave town fast enough (The River takes its slot next week), setting a season low.

CBS:  All repeats, with 3d place finishes for both NCIS shows, but a win for UNFORGETTABLE in the battle of the reruns at 10PM.

Tonight is the last night before February sweeps, so ABC is all repeats, while the only new show on CBS is this year's installment of Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials, while NBC will have fresh episodes of its woeful Whitney/Chelsea duo.  FOX will hope to take advantage of the reduced competition with bigger numbers for American Idol, before its declining ratings becomes even more of a story than they already are.  

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

10:32 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



The FOX Tuesday line-up returned to moderate results.

FOX:  The network won the night, but unimpressively:  GLEE tied the season low it hit during the holiday season, and NEW GIRL was only 0.1 above its own.


CBS:  For whatever reason, the NCIS LA repeat tanked last night, down to a 1.7 that was well below its holiday season reruns.  That brought the UNFORGETTABLE repeat down, and the result was the rare sight (even with an all-repeat slate) of CBS in 4th place for the evening.

ABC:  Comparatively speaking, LAST MAN STANDING was the night's success story, up half a ratings point from its last original episode in December.  A rerun at 8:30PM did better than almost all the original programming that's been pumped into that slot this season, then CELEBRITY WIFE SWAP and (less happily) BODY OF PROOF hung steady.

NBC:  Despite the reruns on CBS, BIGGEST LOSER lost 0.1 from last week, and PARENTHOOD tied its season low with a 1.7 for the third week in a row.

CW:  Even by the network's standards, the 0.3 debut for the new reality show REMODELED is a disaster.  CW will be stunting the show all over its schedule for the next couple of weeks, trying to drum up some interest.  90210, which had been showing signs of life compared to some of the other CW veterans, subsided to a mediocre 0.6.

Only 2 words have any meaning on tonight's TV line-up:  AMERICAN IDOL.  The show survived its cast changes last season in fine form, so the only question, as ever, will be the size of its victory.  On a much smaller scale, CSI begins the arc of Marg Helgenberger's departure tonight, which may give that show a boost.

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THE SKED'S WEDNESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

10:33 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,



America gives a warm "Welcome Back" to ABC's Wednesday line-up.

ABC:  With new episodes airing for the first time in a month, the network's shows (admittedly airing against lots of repeats and low-level specials on the other networks) took every half-hour of the night.  Everything was up from its last new episode in early December, although glass-half-emptiers might note that SUBURGATORY and REVENGE were only up 0.1 from what had been (excluding Thanksgiving Eve) their previous series lows.  Still, up is up, and a particularly ingenious HAPPY ENDINGS was only 0.2 off its season high.


FOX:  An off-night GLEE repeat didn't give much of a lead-in to a new MOBBED, which could only manage a 3d place 1.2 in its hour.

CBS:  A special I GET THAT A LOT pulled a not-bad 2.3, good enough for 2d place in the hour, then repeats held on to 2d place the rest of the night.

NBC:  The network's last night of repeats until it launches its "unfunny women in their 20s" 8PM hour of sit-coms next week.  The night's high point was a 1.1 for the SVU repeat.

CW:  Finally new episodes return to CW tonight, but there was still time for one more night of SECRET CIRCLE repeats with their 0.3 ratings.

Tonight, yes, CW unwraps new episodes of guilty pleasure Vampire Diaries and guilty not-so-much-pleasure Secret Circle, while ABC has 2012's first new chapters of Grey's Anatomy and Private Practice.  CBS, FOX and NBC (goodbye for now, Community) air reruns.

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STATUETTE STAKES: Game of Golden Globes

3:53 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Our thoughts on the movie Golden Globe nominations are here. 

Meanwhile, in television:

BREAKING BAD:  LOSER - Really, one should say Golden Globes Credibility:  Loser, because when you fail to even nominate the best season of one of the best shows of the decade, that's what you lose.  And if not nominating the series itself is a shame, passing over Giancarlo Esposito for his truly spectacular performance as Gus Fring is a crime.


NEW DRAMAS:  WINNERS - Of the 5 nominees for Best Drama, only one (Boardwalk Empire) is even in its second season.  All the others (Homeland, American Horror Story, Game of Thrones, Boss) are newcomers.  And also Winners:  Pay-Cable Networks, which are responsible for 4 of the 5.

ENLIGHTENED and GLEE:  WINNERS - For managing to garner Best Comedy nominations despite being only barely tolerable most of the time.

CALLIE THORNE:  WINNER - For the WTF nomination of the entire day, a truly bizarre nod to this very talented actress for Drama Actress in the negligible Necessary Roughness.  Among the actresses who didn't get nominated in this slot:  Connie Britton for Friday Night Lights (or for that matter, American Horror Story), Glenn Close for Damages, any of the women in Parenthood, and Anna Torv in Fringe.

MANDY PATINKIN:  LOSER - Homeland won richly deserved nominations for Drama and for its remarkable performances by Claire Danes and Damian Lewis.  But Patinkin, who's been turning in the most restrained, emotionally detailed work of his entire career, was overlooked.

The Globes are handed out January 15 on NBC.  Let's hope Ricky Gervais is good and drunk when he takes the stage...

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

12:16 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,



We're deep in the holiday TV season, and even with new episodes on most of the networks, viewership was on the low side.

FOX:  GLEE and NEW GIRL have never bounced back from their baseball preemptions, and both continue their downward trajectory, although they're still quite successful.  (Creatively, the Christmas Glee episode poured on the sentiment like turkey gravy, while New Girl was more charming.)


CBS:  Even the mighty NCIS shows floundered a bit, tying their season lows.  (Although that was still enough for a win at 8PM.)  UNFORGETTABLE set a new low, with the excuse that it faced stronger competition than usual from NBC.

NBC:  The network couldn't find any better lead-in to the BIGGEST LOSER cycle finale than a documentary about Prince William and Kate, which was long past its Sell-By date with a 1.2.  Loser then had its highest rating of the season, although it was down more than 35% from last year's winter finale.

ABC:  Only the network knows why it burned off a fresh episode of LAST MAN STANDING to kick off a night of repeats.  The result was a series-low rating, down almost 20% from last week.  The repeats afterward were a litany of people gradually changing the channel:  2.0, 1.5, 1.3, 1.1.

CW:  Repeat hell.

Tonight CBS and FOX air new regular-series episodes against repeats on NBC and ABC.

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

11:16 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


Not much good news for anyone--including the night's winner.

FOX:  The network ran the table 8-10PM, but with ugly numbers:  GLEE and NEW GIRL both set season lows, and RAISING HOPE was just 0.1 above its low.  For the first time in quite a while, Glee was below a 3 rating.



ABC:  LAST MAN STANDING was up from last week, although its 2.6 was still just 0.2 above that season low.  MAN UP!, on its way out, hit a new low.  Reruns of THE MIDDLE and SUBURGATORY averaged a 1.2, even lower than Middle had done last week.  BODY OF PROOF also set a new low, with an awful 1.5 for a new episode.

NBC:  Hardly anyone wanted to celebrate Christmas with Michael Buble, as his special managed only a 1.5.  After that, BIGGEST LOSER perked up to a 2.2, which was down from last week but still above other recent episodes.

CBS:  An all rerun night, with NCIS way down from last week's repeat (2.1 vs 2.9).  Notably, though, the repeat UNFORGETTABLE managed to beat the new Body of Proof on ABC.

CW:  90210, unlike Gossip Girl, is still holding its own in CW terms with a 0.8.  RINGER was a repeat.  

Tonight will be the first with regular schedules, no specials or repeats, in a while.  The number to watch will be the 2d episode of FOX's I Hate My Teenage Daughter, this time airing against new episodes on the other networks.

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UPDATED: THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

1:10 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,



UPDATE:  Both GLEE and PARENTHOOD avoided their worst fates for the night.  In final national numbers, each show's rating increased by 0.1, just enough to keep GLEE at 3.0 and PARENTHOOD at 2.0.  Indeed, the final ratings fairies were doubly kind to PARENTHOOD, because BODY OF PROOF went down slightly, meaning that PARENTHOOD managed to tie the ABC show for 2d place in the hour.  It's an easy game...

A consistent night, but mostly not in a good way.

FOX:  GLEE only slipped 0.2 points from last week, but it was an ugly symbolic dip, putting the show below a 3 rating for the first time this season.  It also looks like NEW GIRL's days of ratings that begin with a 4 are over, as the show's pre-baseball numbers seem to have fallen permanently.  However, a 3.5 rating, especially building on its lead-in, is still a strong success, and creatively the show had another thoroughly charming episode last night.  (Note:  FOX's Tuesday, which could really use some stability at this point, will have yet another disruption next Tuesday, since in order to clear Thanksgiving night for specials, the network will air X Factor on Tuesday and Wednesday.)



ABC:  Both LAST MAN STANDING and MAN UP! tied their lows, which is OK news for the first (already back ordered) and a probable death sentence for the latter.  This cycle of DANCING WITH THE STARS can't end soon enough for ABC, and BODY OF PROOF is lucky it's in one of the week's weakest hours.

CBS:  Everything was within 0.1 of where it's been lately, all's right with the world.

NBC:  Another bad symbolic decline, this time for PARENTHOOD, which dipped below a 2 for the first time all season.  Amazingly, that still makes it one of the network's strongest 10PM shows.  (Fun Fact!  Last week's SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE had a 2.7 rating in the 18-49 demo--which wasn't even its highest of the season--and that outrated every primetime show on NBC except The Office and football.)  BIGGEST LOSER fell from last week and was back in oblivion.

CW:  Both 90210 and RINGER stayed within the network's normal corridor.

Tonight FOX will look for some recovery from X FACTOR, while ABC will hope that a supposedly pivotal episode of REVENGE gets a response.

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

11:08 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,



Post-baseball hangover over?  Not so fast.

FOX:  Unlike Monday, FOX's Tuesday seems to have been seriously dented by baseball preemptions.  GLEE only recovered a bit of its pre-baseball number, and despite a much-publicized episode in which 2 of the main characters lost their virginity, the show is now running a scary 25% below last season's average.  NEW GIRL managed to barely win its timeslot, but it's 20% below where it was at the beginning of October.  Making matters worse, RAISING HOPE took an odd nosedive from last week, and is now losing 40% of its lead-in's rating. 


ABC:  The LAST MAN STANDING/MAN UP! hour isn't benefiting from Glee's decline, as both shows continued to slip.  Preempting BODY OF PROOF didn't do anything for the 10PM hour, as a Robin Roberts interview special was even a couple of ticks worse.

CBS:  The NCIS shows continue to deliver, and while UNFORGETTABLE isn't in their league, it's doing well enough to win its weak timeslot.

NBC:  THE BIGGEST LOSER built a bit on last week's increase (although it's still running more than 20% below last season's average), but PARENTHOOD was unable to capitalize on that and was at the lower end of its season's range.

CW  90210 and RINGER were respectively slightly up and down, but only by a tenth each.  With the exception of Thursday, the network's schedule is mired in the 0.6-0.8 range (with a 2 month hiatus on the way).

Tonight we'll see a disruption in the usual Wednesday as ABC preempts its schedule for one of the few November sweeps stunts, the CMA Awards show.  Last year's telecast did a sterling 4.7 in 18-49s, and that would be considerably higher even than the network's very successful recent average for the night. 

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THE SKED: Tuesday Ratings - Network Scorecard

10:55 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


The excitement of Premiere Week is over, and shows are settling into their "real" numbers.

FOX: The small decline for NEW GIRL (which had another charming episode last night--the show has found its creative groove with remarkable speed) isn't serious.  What may concern FOX, though, is that they promoted last night's extremely earnest episode of GLEE like crazy--it was practically A Very Special Episode--and the number ticked down instead of up.  Glee is now on hiatus until November 1 because of baseball, and unless the network has some big "event" episode set for the show's return, they have to be a little worried about what that rating will be in 4 weeks.


CBS:  Even though the decline for UNFORGETTABLE was very slight, and consistent with the small drops for the NCIS shows, the fact is that the new series is losing audience rather than building one.  If that number keeps creeping down over the next few weeks (especially if Body of Proof creeps up), that could be a problem.

ABC:  Although the BODY OF PROOF number will probably come down a bit when final numbers are in (due to DANCING WITH THE STARS overrun), it's heartening that the show is moving up, even as Dancing is heading in the other direction.

NBC:  BIGGEST LOSER is starting to earn its title, and the sad part is that it's dragging down PARENTHOOD with it.  NBC is essentially out of the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday business this fall, which is scary..

CW:   Although it was doubtless hurt by its lousy 90210 lead-in, RINGER has felt more unconvincing and dramatically weak with each episode, and that can't be helping its numbers.

Tonight we'll find out how SUBURGATORY holds up on its second airing.  Look for a Pilot + 1 Review later, and also for a review of Ryan Murphy's new FX spectacle, AN AMERICAN HORROR STORY.

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THE SKED: Tuesday Ratings - Network Scorecard

10:34 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


On a night without a lot of movement, sometimes standing still works out for the best.

FOX:  Zooey Deschanel may not be a mainstream movie star, but her Manic Pixie Dream Girl charms are definitely making her one on TV:  NEW GIRL (see our Pilot + 1 Review) is just a hair behind 2 Broke Girls as the biggest hit of the new season (and 1 of them should be the first to grab a back-order of Spring episodes).  Even more impressively, while Broke Girls is running essentially even with its strong How I Met Your Mother lead-in, New Girl had to do a lot of the heavy lifting itself.  All that's keeping FOX from spending the morning doing handstands is that so far, New Girl is a smash in isolation:  GLEE is settling into its new post-blockbuster, sub-4 rating world (as to last night's episode:  the series is so willfully strange that sometimes the relatively naturalistic episodes are the ones that seem oddest),  and RAISING HOPE is only slightly above last season's average.


CBS:  The NCIS franchise won 3 of its 4 half-hours last night, falling into 2d place only to New Girl and almost dead even with last week's numbers.  But UNFORGETTABLE (read our Pilot + 1 Review) can't afford to fade much more--it's already running even with The Good Wife's numbers in that slot, and those are the numbers that got Good Wife moved to another night.  On CBS, even winning your time slot isn't a guarantee of success if you squander your lead-in, and Unforgettable lost almost 40% of the NCIS:  LA number.

NBC:  BIGGEST LOSER is down an awful 30% from last season, and since it fills 2 hours of the night, Tuesday is basically cooked (albeit in a low-fat, nutritional way) for the network, much as Sing-Off is killing their Mondays.  The only shred of good news is that PARENTHOOD, while down from last season's average, is holding steady (another great episode last night), and suddenly finds itself very much in the 10PM race against weak competition on the other networks.  For NBC, that's a "hit".  

ABC:  The 8PM DANCING WITH THE STARS special is just a place-holder until Tim Allen rides to the rescue in a few weeks (they hope), but it's certainly not keeping the timeslot warm.  The Dancing results show is a disaster, down 30% from last year's, and the same is true for BODY OF PROOF, which is getting slammed by the direct competition of Unforgettable.

CW:  The good news is that there wasn't any bad news:  Ringer, despite being a serialized show (and despite another disappointing episode) stopped bleeding and held steady at last week's 0.9, and 90210 even went up a tick to 0.8.  Those numbers aren't much, but they're where the CW is these days.

Things to watch for tonight:  whether Revenge can sustain its impressive opening (look for our Pilot + 1 Review), and whether Up All Night can avoid any more slippage for NBC at 8PM.
 

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Mid-Week Update

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With Monday and Tuesday numbers in, here are some notes about how the new arrivals are holding up:

THE HELP continues its impressive run:  its $8.3M on Monday-Tuesday represents a very robust 32% of its weekend total.  All signs continue to point to a strong second weekend hold, especially since early reviews for its direct competitor ONE DAY are fairly disastrous, running at only 28% positive on RottenTomatoes.


FINAL DESTINATION 5, on the other hand, has weekday numbers of $3.9M, a measly 22% of its $18M weekend.  Not unusually for its genre, it should flame out quickly--which would potentially leave the way clear for Dreamworks/Disney's FRIGHT NIGHT, if anyone cared that that movie exists.  (The studio has scheduled "Sneak Peek" screenings of the latter film around 9PM Thursday night, in an effort to build word of mouth for those who can't be roused for a midnight show.)

30 MINUTES OR LESS is holding better in a percentage sense, with $3.7M equaling 28% of its weekend--but at those numbers, even a good hold won't mean much.  Its main competition this weekend is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, a movie which while only at 44% on RottenTomatoes, doesn't care much about its reviews.

In the same boat as 30 Minutes only more so (less so?) is GLEE 3D, whose $1.6M is 27% of its weekend as it heads to oblivion.  Supplanting it in the hearts of young viewers this weekend will be SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, billed as being in "4D" because it features odors as well as objects protruding from the screen.  The Weinstein Company seems to have little interest in showing this one to critics.

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 14

12:28 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


Now that THE HELP has opened about as well as Dreamworks/Disney could have hoped, the next goal is a 2d weekend decline of around 40%.  That would match the hold of Julie & Julia, and would make a $100M gross for Help very realistic.  The film's only direct competition next weekend is the seemingly wan ONE DAY (which is only in around 1600 theatres, among other things).

The FINAL DESTINATION series would be over (or pre-reboot, as we might as well called discarded franchises these days) except that foreign results are more important than domestic here, and those numbers aren't in yet.

We'll see how the numbers play out, but right now, Sony is claiming the lowest Sunday decline for any movie in the Top 10, in what appears to be a desperately sad attempt to get 30 MINUTES OR LESS above a lousy $13M for its opening weekend.

The only notable new limited release was SENNA with a very nice $35K in each of 2 theatres, but there were a slew of expansions from slightly older films.  None of them seem hugely promising, but some did better than others (all numbers are per-theatre):  SARAH'S KEY $4600 in 101, THE GUARD $5900 in 47, THE DEVIL'S DOUBLE $2800 in 89, ANOTHER EARTH $1800 in 82, THE WHISTLEBLOWER $5100 in 22, and ATTACK THE BLOCK $2500 in 40.  Considering that even Final Destination 5 averaged $5800 in over 3000 theatres this weekend, there don't seem to be any potential breakout hits in this group.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for international numbers as soon as they're available later today, and Mitch Metcalf's report on this weekend's actual grosses tomorrow.




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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Early Weekend Numbers

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Deadline has preliminary numbers for Saturday and the weekend, and any worries that THE HELP would suffer from front-loading are out the window.  Rather amazingly, the picture seems to have climbed more than 25% from Friday to Saturday, and it seems likely to get near $25M for the weekend and $35M since its opening on Wednesday.  DreamWorks/Disney's seemingly odd decision to open the movie in the dead of August is looking pretty damn smart right now.

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should still win the weekend with about $26.5M, representing a good second weekend decline of a bit over 50%.  As expected, FINAL DESTINATION 5 took a Saturday hit, and may not get to $18M for the weekend, while 30 MINUTES OR LESS held about even and is still headed for a meager $13M.  Saddest of all is GLEE 3D, which turned out not just to be a flop, but a front-loaded one:  it seems to have plummeted more than 35% from Friday to Saturday, making for a pathetic $5.5M weekend.  (Is the Gleek audience starting to suffer from Glee overload?  Suddenly the TV series ratings for the new season don't seem like a certainty.)

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for Mitch Metcalf's full weekend report and analysis in the morning, and international numbers as soon as they're available.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 12-14

12:02 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Ah, the dog days of summer in August.  It's the time when studios start dumping movies.  Sure there can be a surprise in this month (see District 9 two years ago this weekend), but the lower box office volume in August simply works against most films succeeding.  A quick look at the numbers: a typical weekend in May or June totals $150 million for the top 12 films, while a typical weekend in July balloons to over $160 million.  But an average weekend in August musters only $110 million, and by September it is under $80 million.  With that background, four films open this weekend, and we expect none to come anywhere close to $100 million domestic box office and most to be closer to $50 million.   


Opening at more than 3,100 theaters, Final Destination 5 should average a somewhat above par $7,000 per theater (for $21.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  We don't have a sense of critical reception yet, as there are too few reviews posted at RottenTomatoes.  But most horror movies, regardless of reviews, are doomed to steep declines each weekend.  This entry should have a low domestic multiple and end up around $50 million total in North America.



UPDATED  At about 2,600 theaters, 30 Minutes or Less should average $6,750 (for $17.5 million this weekend).  The R-rated caper comedy has received mixed reviews so far, 47% positive at RottenTomatoes from the early reviewers.  This comedy is probably headed for around $60 million domestically. 

Opening at 2,511 theaters, The Help should average $6,720 from Friday-Sunday (for a $17 million weekend).  The film already opened Wednesday, and we are estimating $10 million Wednesday-Thursday for a five-day opening of $27 million.  Critics have been broadly positive about The Help (73% positive at RottenTomatoes), as is our own Mitch Salem in his review.  As we have seen in the past, this critical buzz can mean small declines in coming weekends.  A conservative forecast also puts The Help as a $65 million movie in North America, although this number will be revised upward if the second weekend is especially impressive.     

Finally, opening at about 1,800 theaters, Glee: The 3D Concert Movie should average $4,500 per theater (for an $8 million opening weekend).  (The average wide-release film averages $4,900 per theater in its opening weekend).  Reviews have been positive so far at RottenTomatoes, but the small number of reviews so far prevents us from making a definitive call.  In all likelihood, fans of the Fox TV show will see the movie early in its run or wait for it on pay per view at home, meaning the concert film will not have legs at the box office.  Glee 3D is probably headed for a domestic total of $20 million, if that.

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
August 12-14                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Final Destination 5      WB  R      n/a      $ 21.5    $ 50
30 Minutes or Less     Sony  R      47%      $ 17.5    $ 60
The Help             Dis/DW  PG13   73%      $ 17.0    $ 65
Glee: The 3D Concert    Fox  PG     n/a      $  8.0    $ 20

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Rise of the Planet of the Apes should remain #1 with a fairly average 51% decline (though that is a good number for a sci-fi movie), while The Change-Up should decline 47% from a much smaller base.  The Smurfs should decline a decent 40%, continuing its solid run.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
August 12-14                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -51%      $27       $158
The Smurfs            Sony        -40%      $12.5     $127
Cowboys & Aliens       Uni        -52%      $ 7.5     $101
Crazy, Stupid, Love.    WB        -36%      $ 7.5     $ 76
The Change-Up          Uni        -47%      $ 7       $ 35
Captain America        Par        -46%      $ 7       $179
Harry Potter Deathly 2  WB        -42%      $ 7       $368


Box Office Volume


For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $121 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $132 million, and the year before was $125 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $146 million, up about 10% from this weekend last year.  This would be the fifth up weekend in a row, although not as big an increase as we have seen the last several weeks.   



This Weekend Last Two Years

8.13.10

 The Expendables LG R Sylvester Stallone Jason Statham  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $31  Actual: $35
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $107  Actual: $103
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $171

 Eat Pray Love SONY PG13 Julia Roberts Javier Bardem  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23  Actual: $23
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $78  Actual: $81
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $124

 Scott Pilgrim vs the World UNI PG13 Michael Cera Mary Elizabeth Winstead  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $11
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $38  Actual: $31
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $16

8.14.09

 District 9 SONY R    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $29  Actual: $37
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $125  Actual: $116
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $89

 Time Traveler's Wife WB PG13 Rachel McAdams Eric Bana  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18  Actual: $19
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $61  Actual: $63
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $37


 Ponyo DIS G    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: n/a  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $15
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $186


 (500) Days of Summer FOX PG13 Zooey Deschanel Joseph Gordon-Levitt  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: n/a  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $34  Actual: $32
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $26

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

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THE SKED: WHAT TO WATCH THIS FALL ON TUESDAYS (1st Draft)

10:26 AM | Labels: , , , , ,


The networks have proclaimed their Fall schedules, the new series have been (partially) unveiled, so... what now?  What will actually be worth watching when network TV comes back to life in a few months?  SHOWBUZZDAILY is here to help you out.  The good news is that since virtually all TV series are available these days via DVR, on-demand and online streaming, we're well past the days when you had to choose one show in a timeslot and live with it--so where a slot offers a multitude of worthwhile entries, well, the only thing better than spending an hour watching TV is spending 2.  Also, these are "1st Drafts" because once the pilots come to light, some arrivals may look even better than they do now, while others will be far less impressive.  So consider this a work in progress.

8PM: Were you a HOME IMPROVEMENT fan?  Because LAST MAN STANDING looks like more of the same--and even the promo wizards at ABC couldn't make MAN UP look anything but labored.  So thanks for playing, but as uneven and sometimes irritating as it can be, the move here is to stick with GLEE.


9PM:  It's Zooey Deschanel vs. Sarah Michelle Gellar, and thanks to DVRs, no need to make a choice.  NEW GIRL appears to be one of the most promising of the Fall sitcoms (and RAISING HOPE was a fairly bright spot as a newcomer last season).  Although it's hard to figure out from the promos where RINGER is really going, it seems worth taking a shot and allowing it a few episodes to get there.


10PM:  PARENTHOOD.  Period.  Now that FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS (also from producer Jason Katims) is done, PARENTHOOD is the only show on TV to seriously address the life of a family.  It might be the best series on network TV that nobody talks about--and with the admittedly brilliant GOOD WIFE no longer in its timeslot, people might finally notice it's there.


WHAT TO WATCH THE REST OF THE WEEK:

Monday    Tuesday    Wednesday    Thursday    Friday    Weekend 

ALSO SEE MITCH METCALF'S PREDICTIONS OF FALL 2011 RATINGS:

MON      TUE      WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN      FULL WEEK

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THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 TUESDAY TV SCHEDULE

11:17 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season!  Above you see our guide to what to expect on Tuesday nights this Fall:  the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots.  Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:

We expect NBC to be very aggressive on Tuesdays.  As on Monday, they should have their new hit THE VOICE to start off the night.  We think they'll follow it with the show that seems to be their #1 priority for Fall, SMASH. This is the story of the making of a Broadway musical, with Debra Messing as the composer of the show-within-the-show.  It will feature original songs by the real composer, HAIRSPRAY's Marc Shaiman; the pilot has also reportedly received the hands-on attention of Executive Producer Steven Spielberg.   With all that, and despite the huge success of GLEE, this is a risky project, and we're dubious that a musical without the relatable setting of high school can find the same wide audience.  At 10PM, the American version of the classic British cop show PRIME SUSPECT (with Maria Bello in Helen Mirren's iconic role) could work for part of the SMASH audience, but will have a hard time against THE GOOD WIFE.  Overall, we see the night as a mixed bag for the network--but all that will change if SMASH lives up to its title.

ABC starts out strongly on Tuesdays with the DANCING WITH THE STARS RESULTS, but hasn't been able to hold that audience.  We think they'll use that platform to launch their most prominent new sitcom, the TIM ALLEN PROJECT.  Reports are that it's catnip for his fans, and 9PM is his old HOME IMPROVEMENT timeslot.  The network will follow it with one of their other buzzed-about comedies, SMOTHERED, which has an ensemble of good older actors (Marcia Gay Harden, Adam Arkin, Julie White, John C McGinley) as grandparents trying to get along.  That comfortable, older demo could flow to the new drama PAN AM at 10PM, which is set in the 1960s and will try to tap the appeal of MAD MEN in a more populist way.  That may or may not work, but as long as Allen delivers the goods earlier in the evening, the network should have a nice uptick for the night.

FOX did OK with RAISING HOPE in the post-GLEE slot this year, but it didn't set the schedule on fire, and the shows that ran after itt (RUNNING WILDE and TRAFFIC LIGHTS) both flopped.  We think they'll hold HOPE for later in the season and try to use GLEE to launch their 2 hottest new comedies.  First is THE NEW GIRL, featuring the series debut of indie-goddess Zooey Deschanel as a woman sharing an apartment with the usual assortment of mismatched roommates.  Following that:  the eye-catchingly titled I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER, starring Jaime Pressley as a mom horrified to realize that her own daughter is just like the mean girls who used to terrorize her in school  These 2 have a real shot of elevating the network's Tuesday performance.

The CW is returning ONE TREE HILL to the air, which does a comfortable if unexciting number for them.  It should pair with the new HART OF DIXIE, from the producer of GOSSIP GIRL and before that THE OC, and not incidentally featuring OC's Rachel Bilson in a NORTHERN EXPOSURE type light drama, playing a NY doctor who moves to the deep, and eccentric, South.  Its success will depend on the charm it can reliably deliver.

CBS wins the night with its pair of NCIS shows followed by its most acclaimed (if not most watched) show THE GOOD WIFE, and will keep them in place.

Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week:  we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!

WANT MORE?  Click on any link below to read predictions for another night:


MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN

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