Tonight's ESPN Monday Night Football game (the 2-10 St Louis Rams at the 5-7 Seattle Seahawks) will have a limited impact on the broadcast fast nationals in the morning. In St Louis, the game will be carried locally by FOX station KTVI instead of the Terra Nova original and House repeat. The St Louis market is ranked #21 and has 1.094% of the nation's TV audience. Look for the fast national Terra Nova rating to go down between one and two-tenths of a rating point in the official national ratings.
In Seattle the game is being carried on a non-network station and will run mostly outside of prime time. So the larger market (ranked #12 with 1.580% of the audience) will not have any effect on the fast nationals.
Showing posts with label ratings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ratings. Show all posts
The Sked: Monday Ratings Advisory December 12
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The Sked: MONDAY Ratings Advisory
Fast national ratings for ABC Monday (Dancing with the Stars, You Deserve It and Castle) will be very inflated Tuesday morning. Two ABC stations (WCVB-Boston and KMBC-Kansas City) will carry the ESPN Monday Night Football game between the Chiefs and the Patriots locally over-the-air. The two markets represent a combined 2.9% of TV households (Boston 2.08% and Kansas City 0.82%).
Accurate official nationals will be available early afternoon Pacific time.
The Sked: THURSDAY Ratings Advisory
Remember that the fast nationals for The CW Thursday schedule will be vastly inflated by local coverage of NFL Network's Thursday Night Football. Because of football pre-emptions in New York and Denver (on WPIX and KWGN), The CW has pulled original episodes of The Vampire Diaries and Secret Circle and replaced them with a movie that no one ever saw because it barely played in theaters, Beneath the Blue. Ratings will seem decent for the 2010 movie because the fast nationals will count football viewing in New York and Denver (a combined 7.8% of the country) toward its total, but the rating will be correct by the afternoon Friday in the official nationals.
The Sked: MONDAY OFFICIAL RATINGS November 14
The official nationals for Monday show that ABC came down three tenths of a rating point, to a 2.9 Adult 18-49 rating for the evening, and NBC dropped two tenths of a rating point to a 1.2 rating. Both adjustments are due to the local broadcast coverage of ESPN's Monday Night Football game between the Packers and Vikings.
Speaking of ESPN, Monday Night Football scored a 5.7 Adult 18-49 rating, a decent rating considering the last three MNF telecasts (6.9, 4.7, 3.3 rating).
Dancing with the Stars dropped two tenths to a 3.2, and 20/20 with Rep. Gabby Giffords tumbled four tenths to a 2.4 rating. On NBC, The Sing-Off fell two tenths to a season low 1.3 rating, while Rock Center dropped two tenths to a 1.1 rating (a season best but only by one tenth of a rating point). Updated sweep numbers and broadcast network program tracks follow.
NOVEMBER SWEEP LAST NIGHT
2011 vs 2010 Day 19
2011 2010
CBS 4.3 3.4 +26%
ABC 2.9 3.2 - 8%
FOX 2.4 3.0 -20%
NBC 1.2 1.6 -23%
NOVEMBER SWEEP SCORECARD
2011 vs 2010 Through Day 19 of 28
2011 2010
FOX 3.4 2.8 +20%
CBS 2.9 2.7 + 9%
ABC 2.4 2.5 - 3%
NBC 2.5 2.4 + 1%
CBS Mon 9.19 9.26 10.3 10.10 10.17 10.24 10.31 11.7 11.14
How I Met 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.6
2 Broke 7.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.6 4.8
Two Half 10.7 7.4 6.2 5.9 5.3 5.5 4.7 5.2 5.4
Mike & Mol --- 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.2 3.7 4.2 4.4
Hawaii 5-O 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.3
Hawaii 5-O 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.3
ABC Mon 9.19 9.26 10.3 10.10 10.17 10.24 10.31 11.7 11.14
Dancing St 4.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.8 3.4 3.2
Castle 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 ---
Castle 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 ---
FOX Mon 9.19 9.26 10.3 10.10 10.17 10.24 10.31 11.7 11.14
Terra Nova --- 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.8 --- 2.1 2.6 2.3
House --- --- 3.9 2.7 3.1 --- 2.5 2.8 2.5
House --- --- 3.9 2.7 3.1 --- 2.5 2.8 2.5
NBC Mon 9.19 9.26 10.3 10.10 10.17 10.24 10.31 11.7 11.14
The Sing-O 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3
Playboy Clu1.6 1.3 1.2 --- --- --- ---
Rock Center--- --- --- --- --- --- 1.0 1.0 1.1
Playboy Clu1.6 1.3 1.2 --- --- --- ---
Rock Center--- --- --- --- --- --- 1.0 1.0 1.1
###
THE SKED: Cable Ratings Update July 19-20
Updating the cable hit chart (click "read more" to see it) with data from Tuesday and Wednesday, A&E's Storage Wars joins the rankings of high-rated cable shows. Other people's junk is a very popular topic with Pawn Stars, Storage Wars and American Pickers all making the cut (and don't forget the strangely fascinating Hoarders that usually does under a 1 rating). For younger viewers, Teen Mom on MTV and Tosh.0 on Comedy Central make the ratings cut-off. (Note how low the viewer 2+ number is for these two programs, indicating no one over the age of 50 is watching.)
Top Cable Programs (above a 1.5 18-49 rating)
July 17-20, 2011 18-49 Viewers 2+
Rating Impressions
Sun ESPN Women's World Cup Soccer 4.7 13,458,000
Sun HBO True Blood 2.7 5,104,000
Mon Hist Pawn Stars 10:00 pm 2.5 6,667,000
Mon Hist Pawn Stars 10:30 pm 2.3 6,394,000
Wed A&E Storage Wars 10:30 pm 2.2 5,089,000
Wed A&E Storage Wars 10:00 pm 2.0 4,499,000
Mon Hist American Pickers 1.9 5,574,000
Tue MTV Teen Mom 1.8 3,151,000
Mon USA WWE 10:00 pm 1.7 4,981,000
Mon USA WWE 9:00 pm 1.6 4,703,000
Sun E! Keeping Up Kardashians 1.6 3,146,000
Tue CMDY Tosh.0 1.6 2,783,000
Just below our ratings threshold of 1.5, USA's Royal Pains earned a 1.4 young adult rating Wednesday night, with just over 5 million viewers over the age of 2. Most summer scripted basic cable shows, in contrast, tend to rate in the low-1 rating range: White Collar and Covert Affairs on USA Tuesday as well as Necessary Roughness on USA Wednesday (1.2 18-49 rating, 4.2-4.5 million viewers 2+), Rizzoli & Isles on TNT (1.2 18-49 rating, 6.4 million viewers 2+), The Closer on TNT (1.1, 6.5 million), Eureka, Warehouse 13, and ALPHAS on SyFy (0.8-0.9 rating, 2.2-2.5 million). Of all these programs Royal Pains has the best chance to grow its way onto our hit cable show list and stay there.
As with broadcast, cable reality is consistently beating the struggling scripted genres -- especially with younger viewers (18-34 and to some extent 35-49). This is not to say scripted is dead. (Just as the predicted demise of comedy was crazy). But the audience is clearly saying they are tired of the concepts, characters and story beats. As contrived as much of it is, reality offers true unpredictability (as live sports coverage does), and it is populated by big characters (in every sense of the word). If scripted shows can rediscover that sense of surprise with more memorable characters, the audience will gladly return.
THE SKED: The Cable Ratings World
From time to time, we will check in with the cable networks to see what programs are resonating with the audience. HBO's True Blood and History's Pawn Stars would be considered summer hits on any network. True Blood is especially impressive since HBO is available in only a small minority of US television homes. And the ESPN coverage of the Women's World Cup Soccer Final (Japan defeating Team USA in a shoot-out) is just absolutely outstanding, especially considering the match aired at 1:55 pm ET on a sleepy summer Sunday. And now soccer can revert to irrelevance until the next World Cup (Men's) in two years. Anyway, for comparison to the World Cup, TNT's coverage of NASCAR at 1:00 pm Sunday averaged a 1.3 demo rating, while ESPN's Sunday coverage of the British Open at 8:00 am and Sunday Night Baseball's five-hour, 16-inning marathon between the Red Sox and Rays each averaged a 0.8 rating.
Top Cable Programs (above a 1.5 18-49 rating
July 17-18, 2011 18-49 Viewers 2+
Rating Impressions
Sun ESPN Women's World Cup Soccer 4.7 13,458,000
Sun HBO True Blood 2.7 5,104,000
Mon Hist Pawn Stars 10:00 pm 2.5 6,667,000
Mon Hist Pawn Stars 10:30 pm 2.3 6,394,000
Mon Hist American Pickers 1.9 5,574,000
Mon USA WWE 10:00 pm 1.7 4,981,000
Mon USA WWE 9:00 pm 1.6 4,703,000
Sun E! Keeping Up Kardashians 1.6 3,146,000
By the way, cable ratings are released in a logical fashion with programs for the entire day available the next business day. Broadcast network ratings are still doled out in a bizarre format: prime time program ratings only are released the next day, while weekend sports coverage and weekday morning, daytime and late night programs come out the following week on Thursdays. Go figure -- it's been done that way for decades so why fix what ain't broke, right?
We will also keep tabs on quality scripted series that relatively few people (but a lot of Emmy voters) watch. If you have a favorite show you want tracked, let us know in the comments section.
Great Shows that Few People Watch
Sun AMC Breaking Bad 1.1 2,576,000
Sun HBO Curb Your Enthusiasm 0.6 1,913,000
Nielsen ratings are courtesy TVBytheNumbers.com, a great website by the way.
THE SKED: Summer Ratings Update & Late Summer Marketing
At the midpoint of the summer, the four major broadcast networks are moving closer together each week. NBC had been dominating earlier in the summer, but with the departure of The Voice and to some extent the NHL Playoffs, the peacock has slid from a weekly average of around a 2 rating with Adults 18-49 to a mid-1 rating. CBS has awakened with the arrival of Big Brother. ABC has been relatively consistent in the low-1 range, while FOX has bounced around a bit, driven by some special events such as the Major League All-Star Game most recently. CW, as usual, does not make any impact in the summer with its all-repeat schedule of already low-rated series.
Weekly Network Averages -- Adults 18-49
Week of ABC CBS NBC FOX CW
June 13 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.6 0.3
June 20 1.3 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.3
June 27 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.3
July 4 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.3
July 11 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.3
Of course, a network schedule is made up of individual programs and not a generic weekly line-up. The programs listed below are the main drivers for each network. Right now, executive producers of and agents for new fall series are fighting to get promotional spots into Bachelorette, Big Brother, America's Got Talent and MasterChef. A spot in a repeat series might count toward the new show's total campaign, but it doesn't have anywhere near the impact of a placement in a hit show.
18-49 Ratings Above 2.0 -- Week of July 11-17
Monday: ABC Bachelorette 2.6, FOX MasterChef 2.2
Tuesday: NBC America's Got Talent 4.0, FOX All-Star Game 3.1
Wednesday: NBC America's Got Talent 3.0, CBS Big Brother 2.6
Thursday: CBS Big Brother 2.3
Friday: None
Saturday: None
Sunday: CBS Big Brother 2.4
So as we head into the final stretch toward Premiere Week, no network has a routine advantage week in and week out in terms of promotional rating points on its own air. The big marketing differentiators for new shows will be money spent on outside media such as cable TV spots, digital, print and outdoor.
But we will keep an eye on the few network hits and report on what new series are getting the lion's share of the sought-after promotional positions.
THE SKED: Holding on to Network Specials
Today's announcement that CBS extended its rights to the Grammy Awards for another 10 years and NBC's recent winning bid for the next four Olympic Games are evidence that broadcast networks are doing everything possible to keep first-class specials programming on their air. Specials account for about 20% of a network's yearly schedule (approximately 80% of the schedule is regular series programming), with very highly-rated (and very costly) specials accounting for probably 5% of the schedule. (Other less important specials include special news reports and series episodes appearing on different nights.)
Programs like the Academy Awards, the Grammys, the Golden Globes, NFL playoffs and Super Bowl, Olympics and NCAA March Madness are very important additions to a network schedule. They provide reliably high ratings (the Super Bowl alone, for example, adds 0.1 to 0.2 of a rating point to a network's season average), and advertisers pay a premium to be in these events because they attract hard-to-reach light television viewers who watch very few regularly-scheduled series. Moreover, local affiliates love these specials because they differentiate their channels from the competition, and network marketing departments use these broad platforms to promote new shows. Perhaps most important, these specials allow parent companies to extract higher distribution fees from cable and satellite providers in the increasingly important retransmission consent negotiations for the network's signal.
THE SKED'S TV NEWS AND NOTES: Sports Playoffs
ABC's coverage (ESPN on ABC) of Game 6 of the NBA Finals earned a very good 9.7 Adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. About 24 million viewers 2+ saw the Dallas Mavericks win the championship, defeating the Miami Heat four games to two. These are great numbers, and the other networks are glad the Finals are out of the way. On to more normal summer reality schedules.
In other TV sports news, NBC will have Game 7 of the NHL Stanley Cup series Wednesday night between the Boston Bruins and the Vancouver Canucks. While a Game 7 in basketball would have earned a 12 demo rating or higher, the NHL Game 7 will be more moderately rated. Monday night, Game 6 of the NHL series topped out at a 2.1 demo rating in the fast nationals. The official nationals (which properly account for the Western 20% of the country that is not measured correctly in the fast nationals) will probably go up to a mid-2 rating, meaning Wednesday's Game 7 could reach into the mid-3 rating. If the series had featured two U.S. teams, the rating would easily well into 4+ rating range.
THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 MONDAY TV SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Monday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
Although CBS will leave its schedule fairly stable, with just one new show (the sitcom TWO BROKE GIRLS with Kat Dennings), they face the biggest challenge of the night: keeping 2 ½ MEN a hit without Charlie Sheen. We think the loss of Sheen is going to lower their rating at 9PM, but that the show will still perform strongly for them, and they should continue to hold steady for the night.
NBC’s Monday was a disaster this past season, with THE EVENT, THE CAPE and LAW & ORDER: LOS ANGELES all failing, CHUCK barely surviving, and HARRY’S LAW only doing well enough to justify a move to a new home with the sparser, older audiences on Fridays. We think they’ll completely redo the night, leading off with their new hit reality show THE VOICE, and then trying to build on that lead-in with 2 new sitcoms that have great buzz: UP ALL NIGHT with Christina Applegate, Maya Rudolph and Will Arnett, and ARE YOU THERE VODKA? IT’S ME CHELSEA, starring Laura Prepon and based on the bestselling Chelsea Handler book. With a strong, female-oriented backbone on the night, we think they’ll move PARENTHOOD over from Tuesday, where it’s been critically acclaimed but ratings challenged. All these moves should give them a significantly higher rating for the night than they had this year.
FOX will make a big change on Mondays by following HOUSE with the new ALCATRAZ, from JJ Abrams (LOST, FRINGE) and featuring LOST alums both in its cast (Jorge Garcia aka Hurley) and its writing staff. It’s a crime drama with a supernatural tinge, and those can be risky, garnering limited—although enthusiastic--audiences. But we think ALCATRAZ has a shot of catching the wider crowds that previously showed up for LOST and HEROES.
ABC, which generally wins the night with its combo of DANCING WITH THE STARS and CASTLE, has no reason to make any changes, and The CW will stick with its brand-name shows 90210 and GOSSIP GIRL, which hits their audience of Women 18-34.
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
WANT MORE? Click on any link below to read predictions for another night:
THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 TUESDAY TV SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Tuesday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
We expect NBC to be very aggressive on Tuesdays. As on Monday, they should have their new hit THE VOICE to start off the night. We think they'll follow it with the show that seems to be their #1 priority for Fall, SMASH. This is the story of the making of a Broadway musical, with Debra Messing as the composer of the show-within-the-show. It will feature original songs by the real composer, HAIRSPRAY's Marc Shaiman; the pilot has also reportedly received the hands-on attention of Executive Producer Steven Spielberg. With all that, and despite the huge success of GLEE, this is a risky project, and we're dubious that a musical without the relatable setting of high school can find the same wide audience. At 10PM, the American version of the classic British cop show PRIME SUSPECT (with Maria Bello in Helen Mirren's iconic role) could work for part of the SMASH audience, but will have a hard time against THE GOOD WIFE. Overall, we see the night as a mixed bag for the network--but all that will change if SMASH lives up to its title.
ABC starts out strongly on Tuesdays with the DANCING WITH THE STARS RESULTS, but hasn't been able to hold that audience. We think they'll use that platform to launch their most prominent new sitcom, the TIM ALLEN PROJECT. Reports are that it's catnip for his fans, and 9PM is his old HOME IMPROVEMENT timeslot. The network will follow it with one of their other buzzed-about comedies, SMOTHERED, which has an ensemble of good older actors (Marcia Gay Harden, Adam Arkin, Julie White, John C McGinley) as grandparents trying to get along. That comfortable, older demo could flow to the new drama PAN AM at 10PM, which is set in the 1960s and will try to tap the appeal of MAD MEN in a more populist way. That may or may not work, but as long as Allen delivers the goods earlier in the evening, the network should have a nice uptick for the night.
FOX did OK with RAISING HOPE in the post-GLEE slot this year, but it didn't set the schedule on fire, and the shows that ran after itt (RUNNING WILDE and TRAFFIC LIGHTS) both flopped. We think they'll hold HOPE for later in the season and try to use GLEE to launch their 2 hottest new comedies. First is THE NEW GIRL, featuring the series debut of indie-goddess Zooey Deschanel as a woman sharing an apartment with the usual assortment of mismatched roommates. Following that: the eye-catchingly titled I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER, starring Jaime Pressley as a mom horrified to realize that her own daughter is just like the mean girls who used to terrorize her in school These 2 have a real shot of elevating the network's Tuesday performance.
The CW is returning ONE TREE HILL to the air, which does a comfortable if unexciting number for them. It should pair with the new HART OF DIXIE, from the producer of GOSSIP GIRL and before that THE OC, and not incidentally featuring OC's Rachel Bilson in a NORTHERN EXPOSURE type light drama, playing a NY doctor who moves to the deep, and eccentric, South. Its success will depend on the charm it can reliably deliver.
CBS wins the night with its pair of NCIS shows followed by its most acclaimed (if not most watched) show THE GOOD WIFE, and will keep them in place.
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 WEDNESDAY TV SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Wednesday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
The network making its big move on Wednesday will be FOX. We think they'll use the night to launch both of their highest-profile new shows. The night will begin with X-FACTOR, which they hope will extend their TV victory lap all season long, from fall till AMERICAN IDOL picks up in early 2012. As with IDOL, the show will probably air twice per week on Wednesday and Thursday. With THE VOICE proving that America's appetite for musical competitions is nowhere near satisfied, and with IDOL's Simon Cowell and Paula Abdul in the judge's seats, there's no reason to think this strategy won't work. FOX can follow FACTOR with their biggest scripted gamble, the dinosaur spectacle TERRA NOVA. If it feels like you've been hearing about that show forever, you have--it was originally supposed to debut exactly a year ago with a "preview" episode, then in the fall, then this spring, and recently it was still unavailable for both a year-late preview and its own network's pilot screenings, supposedly because the CG effects still aren't finished. Color us skeptical. But no question: TERRA NOVA has the potential to be a blockbuster--if it's any good. Even if it's not, X-FACTOR should lift FOX for the night.
The other networks are likely to be quiet against FOX's onslaught. We see ABC staying with its successful comedies from 8-10PM, and then launching its reboot of CHARLIE'S ANGELS at 10. It's a marketing department's dream, because all the promos have to do is show the hot girls (Minka Kelley, Rachael Taylor and Annie Ilonzeh) and utter the title... but remember the reboot of THE BIONIC WOMAN? KNIGHT RIDER? ABC hopes you don't. Still, the title alone should improve the timeslot over last year's bleary duo of THE WHOLE TRUTH and OFF THE MAP.
CBS will similarly stick to its pairing of SURVIVOR and CRIMINAL MINDS. Then it should launch the SUSANNAH GRANT PROJECT. Grant wrote the script for ERIN BROCKOVICH, and the pilot was directed by the great Jonathan Demme of SILENCE OF THE LAMBS fame, so even though the plot sounds like a classier version of THE GHOST WHISPERER (Patrick Wilson is a doctor who gets beyond-the-grave lessons in healing from his deceased wife), it deserves some benefit of the doubt, and should do at least as well as the CRIMINAL MINDS spinoff in that slot.
We think NBC, having made room for THE VOICE on Tuesdays, will move its still-successful BIGGEST LOSER franchise to Wednesday, where it should do well against the declining SURVIVOR. At 10PM, they'll keep their only stalwart hour, LAW & ORDER: SVU.
The CW will stick with AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL at 8PM, and although NIKITA hasn't lived up to its VAMPIRE DIARIES lead in on Thursday, it's done OK (and is a potentially valuable property for international sales), so we think it'll get another chance to prove itself on a different night.
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 THURSDAY TV SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Thursday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
CBS looks to be the busiest network with Thursday changes. They were unable to capitalize on their smash BIG BANG THEORY lead-in to propel $%*! MY DAD SAYS, so they'll try again with a younger odd couple buddy comedy, HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN, starring and written by David Hornsby. At 9PM, CSI is not just long in the tooth, but it seems unlikely to ever recover from the loss of William L Petersen, so we see THE MENTALIST finally ascending into that slot, providing a launching pad for THE 2-2, a show about rookie NY cops that has a good pedigree (pilot written by novelist Richard Price, Executive Producer Robert DeNiro) and a familiar premise... but "familiar" has never been a dirty word at CBS. They should hold steady for the night or possibly edge up a bit if 2-2 gets some attention.
NBC has the second biggest challenge of the season with an existing show (CBS's Charlie Sheen soap opera takes the prize): keeping THE OFFICE on top without Steve Carell. Frankly, the Will Ferrell story arc didn't bode well for the future, but it's not a show one should dismiss too quickly. The network will stick with 3 of its 4 sitcoms for the fall, again holding the 4th on the bench to come in later in the season (last year it was PARKS & RECREATION, this season we think it'll be the cultier COMMUNITY). PARKS & REC, in fact, seems strong enough to serve as a lead-in these days, and we think it'll launch the WHITNEY CUMMINGS PROJECT, which stars and is written by the stand-up comic and has gotten great buzz. At 10PM, we see the network dumping its extra hour of comedies for AWAKE, which keeps getting compared to INCEPTION (it takes place in simultaneous alternate realities), which is enough to make it both worth a look and unlikely to become a mass market hit. Overall, NBC should decline a bit for the night due to Carell's exit.
FOX will again follow in AMERICAN IDOL's footsteps and launch the second hour of X-FACTOR to start the night. After that, they have a bit of a returning show issue themselves, with Emily Deschanel's pregnancy making BONES a spotty presence for fall. So the network will do the next best thing and launch the BONES spinoff THE FINDER in its slot while Ms Deschanel has her child. (Fun fact! she's married to David Hornsby, who we think will be looking for his own share of Thursday ratings with HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN on CBS.) If X FACTOR performs, it should lift FINDER above BONES's pre-IDOL numbers from last fall.
The CW will use its biggest hit, THE VAMPIRE DIARIES, to launch THE SECRET CIRCLE, with which it shares writer/producer Kevin Williamson and its source material, the novels of L.J. Smith. Sometimes this stuff isn't rocket science.
GREY'S ANATOMY isn't the powerhouse it used to be, but it's still the centerpiece of a solidly successful night for ABC.
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 FRIDAY TV SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Friday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
Friday, with its dwindling, aging audiences, isn't the place for networks to launch ambitious new shows. (Although thanks, FOX, for renewing FRINGE.)
It is, however, a good night to relocate shows on the decline. UNDERCOVER BOSS started off very strong on Sundays, but it's been steadily heading lower, and it's time for the show to find a more comfortable resting place on Fridays. Similarly, we see the big event of the night as being CBS's relocation of the original CSI from Thursday to Friday. It's still a solid show, but its ratings have been going in the wrong direction since William L. Petersen left, and that's unlikely to reverse itself. On Friday, it can provide a strong lead-in to BLUE BLOODS, which has done marginal ratings, but has value for CBS in international and cable markets.
With Kathy Bates in the lead, HARRY'S LAW started out skewing old, especially by NBC standards, and while it does have a substantial audience in the older demo, this is the only night it really provides value for NBC.
Oddly, despite the fact that the other 4 networks have nearly invisible 18-49 audiences on Fridays, The CW has done nicely with its pairing of SMALLVILLE and SUPERNATURAL. Now that SMALLVILLE has flown off to Metropolis, SUPERNATURAL should slide to the open 8PM slot and lead in to a new show at 9. The most compatible of The CW's pilots seems to be AWAKENING, a hot-girl version of THE WALKING DEAD (that description probably sounds better than the show is likely to be).
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
WANT MORE? Click on any link below to read predictions for another night:
THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 SATURDAY TV SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Saturday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
Do you care? Seriously? Are you the one watching network television on Saturdays? There'll be college football on ABC for a while, COPS and AMERICA'S MOST WANTED aren't going anywhere, and the other networks have reruns.
Read a book. Nothing to see here...
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
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THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 SUNDAY TV SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Sunday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
We don't expect a lot of changes on Sundays, where each network tends to program to a chosen demographic.
During the fall, CBS and FOX take very different approaches to their alternating football overruns from late afternoon games. CBS welcomes late start times for its shows, which makes for a domino effect throughout the evening; it more or less locks in viewers for the night unless they want to join other networks in progress, but doesn't exactly encourage new visitors. To replace UNDERCOVER BOSS, their new companion piece to CSI MIAMI should be the cumbersomely titled THE REMEMBERER, which stars CBS favorite Poppy Montgomery as a cop whose secret weapon in fighting crime is her spectacular memory. The word is that it's better than it sounds, which isn't a giant challenge. The night should hold steady for the network.
FOX keeps its football overruns under control, rolling them into the post-football roundup THE OT and starting their animated shows on time. Their only change for the evening is the brief (6 episode) run of ALLEN GREGORY in the 8:30 slot, created by actor Jonah Hill. It should make little difference to their self-described "animation domination."
ABC may, as rumored, find space during the season for a curtailed final season of BROTHERS & SISTERS, but their priority is to find a companion piece and possible successor to the aging DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES. We think they've found a hot prospect in GOOD CHRISTIAN BITCHES (which sadly will probably be retitled), from the writer of STEEL MAGNOLIAS and featuring a divorcee heroine who has to go back to her hometown of Dallas and live among the grown-up versions of the mean girls who once made her life hell. If there's anything to the show, it'll boost the network's number in the slot.
If the NFL and its players don't make a new deal by the end of summer, pray for NBC: SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL is so gigantically the highest rated show on the network that its removal could singlehandedly put the network in a ratings place so low that this past year would look like up to them.
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
WANT MORE? Click on any link below to read predictions for another night:
THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY'S FALL 2011/12 SATURDAY SCHEDULE
Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season! Above you see our guide to what to expect on Saturday nights this Fall: the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots. Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:
Do you care? Seriously? Are you the one watching network television on Saturdays? There'll be college football on ABC for a while, COPS and AMERICA'S MOST WANTED aren't going anywhere, and the other networks have reruns.
Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week: we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!
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