Movie Box Review

American Idol edged down again this week, but the rate of decline is slowing.  The Wednesday edition appears to be locking in on a 5 rating or just below.  Meanwhile, ABC bounced back from last week and is approaching last year's pace.  CBS, in contrast, is way off last year's numbers.  NBC continues to struggle mightily.


             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Wednesday    FOX    CBS    ABC    NBC
02.29.2012   4.9    2.9    2.9    1.2    THIS WEEK
02.22.2012   5.1    2.9    2.4    1.2    LAST WEEK
03.02.2011   7.4    4.0    3.1    1.2    LAST YEAR


FOX's American Idol declined again this week (though it was a relatively minor two tenths of a rating point drop) to a 4.9 preliminary 18-49 rating.  (In the official nationals Idol will probably go up up to a 5.0, which would be a serious 43% drop from last year's episode.)  Idol started slowly at 8:00 and built moderately from 8:30 on: 4.4... 5.0... 5.0... 5.3.  Last year on this night, American Idol aired for 90 minutes (8.8) followed by Traffic Light (3.0).  By half hour last year on this night, Idol grew from 8.1 to 8.8 to 9.6.          

A friend of the site provided an interesting piece of television history, the original program format NBC issued to production company Witt-Thomas-Harris for a pilot tentatively titled Miami Nice.  Of course, the pilot ultimately would premiere as The Golden Girls on September 14, 1985 with a 25.0 household rating and 43 share -- an instant hit.  On a Saturday night, no less.  What's really interesting is the program time allotted to this half hour comedy: almost 25 full minutes of program content.  Specifically, 24:45 of program time and 5:15 of non-program time (3:49 of network commercials and promos and 1:15 of local time).  And how many network commercials? Exactly, six 30-second spots.  Three minutes total -- three network commercial breaks, each one-minute long.  (See the format by clicking "read more".) 

To put these numbers in context, we took a look at the program format for Wednesday's Modern Family on ABC.  Modern Family had a little over 21 minutes (21:15) to tell its story in a 31-minute time period (9:00-9:31 pm), leaving almost 10 minutes (9:45) of commercials, network promos, local spots and local news teases.  Sadly, this is a very typical ratio of program to commercial time on network prime time today (about 2:1).  Further, this non-program time was heavily back-loaded into the second half of the show.  The first commercial break on Wednesday was actually shorter than the first commercial pod for the Golden Girls over 25 years ago (0:50 versus 1:03).  But the second and third commercial pods in Modern Family ballooned to well over four minutes each: 4:35 for the second commercial position and 4:20 for the third pod, compared to 1:43 for the second pod in Golden Girls and back to 1:03 for the third break.  So from about 9:00-9:13 pm, there was more than 12 minutes of program content.  But from 9:13-9:31 there was roughly one minute of "junk" for every minute of programming (8:55 in commercials/ promos versus 8:40 program content).

Clearly, 1985 was a very different time.  The broadcast networks still dominated the television landscape, although the wheels were already in motion to change that with the 1984 passage of the Cable Act by Congress.  Around 1980, about 16 million households had cable, mostly as a rather quaint "community antenna" to serve areas with bad over-the-air reception.  By the end of the decade, however, over 50 million households would have cable.  Of course, the VCR and more significantly the DVR would follow, satellite TV would add to the competition, and the Internet ultimately would come, enabling streaming and "TV anywhere".  

But the paradox is that when the broadcast networks were fat and happy, they limited themselves to six commercial units per half hour, with only two commercials per break.  Viewers had to basically sit there and watch the spots live, and the commercials could be effective in a very uncluttered environment.  Now, with about half of the audience able to scan right past commercial messages with a DVR, the networks pour more commercial units into each break to maximize revenue in the short term while hammering another nail into the industry's own eventual coffin.  Would advertisers pay higher prices for reduced commercial clutter and potentially increased effectiveness?  No one would line up to be the first to experiment.  It would require a partnership between the networks who sell the time and the advertising agencies who buy the time to limit the supply of available commercial inventory.  Such cooperation would raise eyebrows in Washington at the FCC and DOJ, and who wants to deal with two powerful but clueless government agencies?  (Legislators and regulators are consistently 20-30 years behind the times in their assessment of the networks' market power.)  Easier for everyone to whistle past the graveyard where the tomb is being prepared.

Previously we examined the upscale ratings picture of the Monday at 10 pm hour, which showed the first few episodes of Smash as solidly upscale, Hawaii Five-0 as fairy downscale and Castle in the middle.  Today we turn our attention to ABC's schedule, which is averaging a 2.4 rating with Adults 18-49 for its regularly scheduled programs this season to date.  However, the regular schedule averages a 2.7 rating with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ income homes.  This translates to a 113 index (100=average and anything above 100 indicates an upscale skew overall), one of the highest concentrations of high-income viewers on network television.

ABC's schedule is paced by the most upscale program on TV, Modern Family with a 158 $100K+ index.  But index only tells part of the story, as it simply measures concentration of high-income viewers.  Modern Family is also toward the top of the ratings charts, ranked #5 with Adults 18-49 (5.6 rating season to date) and ranked even higher (#3) with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ income homes (8.8 rating season to date).  This is important because other shows like NBC's 30 Rock have a very high index (152) but much lower absolute ratings levels (#87 and a 1.6 rating with young adults versus #55 and a 2.4 rating with upscale young adults).  To make these distinctions clear, we divided all network programs into high, medium and low levels on two measures: upscale index and overall young adult rating.  Modern Family is the perfect example of a show that fits into the high rating-high upscale index, a holy grail for advertisers since it reaches a large audience that is highly concentrated with upper income viewers. 


High Rating-Upscale Shows.  In addition to Modern Family, ABC has two other programs in this most desirable category: Grey's Anatomy (116 index) and Dancing with the Stars (110 index, just barely making the cut).

High Rating-Midscale Shows.  Only one other ABC show is above the 3.2 rating level (our defintion for a high rating), freshman fantasy drama Once Upon a Time with an almost perfectly average 101 upscale index.  Although its ratings could very well grow in its second and third seasons, chances are the 101 index will not change very much, given historical patterns.

Downscale Shows.  ABC has no shows in the high rating-downscale category (as opposed to say, CBS -- the next post will show many of The Eye's crime dramas have high ratings but relatively few upper income viewers).  In addition, ABC has relatively few programs in the other downscale categories (middle rating-downscale and low rating-downscale).   Wipeout (89) and The River (87), as well as the now-cancelled Charlie's Angels (81) and Extreme Makeover Home Edition (76), are examples.

Low Rating Shows.  ABC also has relatively few shows in the other low rating categories (low rating-midscale and low rating-upscale -- as opposed to NBC, which has more than its share of upscale-skewing programs with tiny audiences). 

Middle Rating-Upscale Shows.  By default, ABC has a disproportionate number of shows with middling ratings but a upscale skews.  The Bachelor has a terrific upscale index (142), but it is on the downside of the ratings curve.  In contrast, Happy Endings (139 index) and Revenge (130) have a high proportion of upper-income viewers could find themselves moving up to the high rated category with a little patience and luck.  The same cannot be said of Pan Am (129 index): while its upscale skew remains strongly positive, the ratings are headed in the wrong direction and would be classified as a low rating show if we only looked at the last few months.

Finally, as the chart below shows, the once signature series Desperate Housewives (100 index) finds itself in the middle of the pack, undistinguished as a middle rating-midscale show.  Nothing to be ashamed of, it's just showing its age as a show that has migrated from the upper right box, where it burst upon the scene.  Last Man Standing (94 index) is starting its career in the middle box.  In the absolute best case scenario, it might move up the chart (although I wouldn't bet on higher ratings in coming seasons).  However, it has virtually no chance of moving to the right (more upscale in the future).  Like Home Improvement, Last Man Standing will always be solidly midscale and probably should be very happy with a 94 index.

In the next post on upscale ratings we will turn to CBS, which is more concentrated in the upper left section of the chart (high rating but midscale to downscale).

American Idol expanded to two hours last night, and the show did its now reliable 6.0 rating.  Survivor premiered its latest cycle on CBS with a 3.0 rating, down from a 3.2 rating for last year's winter/spring cycle premiere.


             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Wednesday    FOX    CBS    ABC    NBC
02.15.2012   6.0    2.9    2.8    1.3
02.16.2011   8.2    3.2    2.3    1.4



FOX's American Idol has locked in on a 6.0 rating on Wednesday nights.  Last night Idol expanded to two hours, building each half hour: 5.1... 6.0... 6.2... 6.6.  Last year on this night, FOX also expanded American Idol to two hours (8.2), starting at a 6.7 in the 8:00 half hour and peaking at a 9.7 in the 9:30 half hour.        

Friday patterns are really set in stone.  CBS won another Friday with a 1.6 rating (same as last week) with three pricey scripted dramas:  A Gifted Man (1.3 rating, up 0.1 from last week), CSI: NY (1.7, up 0.1) and Blue Bloods (1.7, down 0.2).


FOX was #2 on the night with a 1.3 rating (down 0.2 from last week):  Kitchen Nightmares (1.4, down 0.2 from last week) and Fringe (1.2, down 0.1).

ABC's Wednesday is humming along and won the night with a 3.4 Adult 18-49 rating in the fast nationals.  Modern Family at 9 led the way of course with a 5.7 (the same as last week).   Suburgatory seems to be stabilizing at a 3.0 (the three-week track is 3.3...3.1...3.0, and it could very possibly go up in the official nationals).  The Middle is settling in at a 2.8 (four-week track: 3.1...2.7...2.8...2.8).  Happy Endings (which was pushed in promos the past few days -- "If you like Modern Family, you'll like Happy Endings" along with guest star Megan Mullally) bounced back to a 3.3.  The three-week track for Happy Endings is 3.1...2.8...3.3.  Stunts still work.  And Revenge (the biggest promo priority) rebounded to a 2.7 (four-week track: 3.4...2.7...2.4...2.7).


CBS was a close #2 at a 3.2 for the night:  Survivor 3.2, Criminal Minds 3.7, CSI 2.6.  Survivor and Criminal Minds were each down 0.1 from last week, while CSI was down a disappointing 0.3.  CSI's four-week track: 3.2...3.1...2.9...2.6.  Pending adjustments in the official nationals, it looks like CSI will lose the 10 pm hour to Revenge.

FOX coverage of the rain-delayed Game 4 of the ALCS is a preliminary 3.0 in the fast nationals (the primetime portion from 8:00-10:30).  But the fast nationals have been wildly inaccurate with baseball recently -- expect that number to go down substantially.  

NBC was fourth with a 1.7 for the night, equalling the Wednesday rating last week.  Up All Night, fresh of its full-season order, declined to a 2.0, a series low.  In the time period, Up All Night has tracked:  2.4...2.1...2.3...2.0.  A repeat Whitney at 8:30 (1.3) over-performed the moribund 1.0 turned in by last week's Free Agents.  Harry's Law did its consistent 1.2, while SVU pulled a 2.1, third place in the 10 pm hour.  SVU track: 2.4...2.1...2.1...2.1.

The CW featured a repeat Ringer (0.4), which didn't help America's Next Top Model (0.8).

     

At ShowBuzzDaily we focus mainly on ratings for Adults 18-49, the demographic advertisers are most interested in buying.  But inside that broad group are many important sub-groups, usually broken up into women and men, younger and older (18-34 versus 35-49).  These subgroups (along with the older 50+ category) determine how successful a show will be.  It is important to keep in mind that there are many paths to ratings success -- for example, either dominating one sub-group or doing fairly well across all groups.  We thought we would take a look at the competitive 9 pm hour on Wednesday to see exactly how the audience breaks out. 

9.21.2011          Rating      Demographic Shares
Wed 9-10 pm         Adult  Women Women  Men   Men  Adult
                    18-49  18-34 35-49 18-34 35-49  50+
ABC  Modern Family   6.0     17    16    14    14    10
FOX  The X Factor    4.4     13    13     9    11    10
CBS  Criminal Minds  4.1      9    15     7    10    15
NBC  Harry's Law     1.2      3     5     1     3    10
CW   Next Top Model  0.7      4     3     1     1     1

How to read: Modern Family achieved a 6.0 rating with Adults 18-49 (6% of all people aged 18-49 watched the ABC comedy).  Among Women 18-34, 17% of that group that was watching TV at 9 pm were tuned to ABC, while 13% were tuned to The X Factor on FOX.

Click "read more" for analysis by network.


ABC won the hour by doing well with everyone.  It won the two female groups in the 18-49 demo (even though it had substantial competition in the Women 35-49 segment) and handily won the two male groups.  This is especially important because men don't watch much television and they watch very little network TV compared to women.  So the fact that Modern Family's 6 demo in the hour is filled with young men is especially attractive to Madison Avenue.


In contrast, FOX built its second place finish on the backs of women 18-34 and 35-49, not a big surprise for a reality competition show.  The difference between a solid number and a terrific number for The X Factor would have been more male appeal.

CBS did what it often does: focuses on women 35-49, the 18-49 sub-group most likely to watch television each night.  Secondarily, Criminal Minds won the 50+ race (the group that watches the most TV).  While the 50+ viewers don't count in the 18-49 tally, they inflate the delivery of total viewers (ages 2+) and allow CBS to claim the title of "most watched network".

While NBC was fairly competitive in the 50+ category, Harry's Law did CW-like numbers with young men and young women.  Not an attractive proposition to an advertiser.  

Available in a few days are even more important numbers: viewing in high-income or high-education homes.  Traditionally, Modern Family does very well with viewers in homes with incomes over $100,000 per year.  Again, the ABC comedy's 6 demo rating is filled with young men and with upper income viewers (if last year's patterns hold).  All of that means an even bigger premium for the ABC advertising sales department.